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13 December 2018 METALS & MINING Initiation of Coverage Marketing Communication (Connected Research) Bacanora Lithium# BBG Ticker: BCN LN Price: £26p/sh. Mkt Cap: £35m BUY Back Sonora; Convinced By Site Visit Pilot Plant and Offtakes De-Risk Sonora Company Description Lithium exploration and development company Bacanora Lithium (BCN LN)# has developed and proven through three years of with assets in Mexico and Germany. pilot plant operations that it has a viable extraction process for its soft rock One Year Price Performance polylithionite project in Sonora, Mexico. BCN has consistently produced a 99.5% lithium carbonate and the strategic investment from Hanwa Co. and 10- (GBP/sh) Volume (RHS) (m shs) year offtake for 100% of stage one output verifies this process and confirms 1.60 Price (LHS) 8.0 that the pilot plant has significantly derisked the process design. This 1.40 7.0 1.20 6.0 confidence is further underpinned by the commitment of strategic, specialist 1.00 5.0 investors RK Mining and State General Reserve Fund of Oman. 0.80 4.0 0.60 3.0 Fundamentals, however, remain at the forefront of our investment case and 0.40 2.0 based on a WACC of 8.2% we derive an attributable NPV of US$935m for the 0.20 1.0 two-phase project capable of producing 17.9ktpa and 36ktpa Li2CO3 0.00 0.0 respectively requiring upfront capex of US$420m. Cash costs of US$4,350/t 12/17 3/18 6/18 9/18 12/18 (before by product credits) place the project attractively within the global cost Price % chg 1mn 3mn 12mn curve implying strong margins. The initial 20-year mine life uses just 7% of the -39.4% -31.8% -72.2x% Sonora resource, on our estimates, and remains open to expansion. 12mn high/low 149p/25p Consequently, we believe that one of the most attractive aspects of the project SOURCE: FactSet, as of 12 December 2018 close. for offtakers (and why it will be successful) is the ability to replicate the Market: LSE AIM modular design and scale production in line with rising global demand. Shares in issue 134.5m Target Price (p/sh. 115 Free float: 73.85% Lithium Fundamentals Continue to Strengthen Net cash (Jun 2018): £13.3m Enterprise value: £21.7m The lithium market is expected to grow 25% YoY in 2018 to 260kt LCE as Major shareholders demand for lithium ion batteries continues to grow. The demand outlook M&G Investment Funds 10.0% remains strong and consensus demand for 2025 is now at 1mntpa LCE. Blackrock 9.8% Benchmark Mineral Intelligence now estimate 1,148GWh of battery Hanwa Co Ltd 9.2% manufacturing capacity by 2025. Supply growth is, however, struggling to keep up. SQM (SQM US) will now produce 45kt LCE in 2018, -7% YoY, having initially guided to reaching a run rate of 70ktpa by year-end. Prices have therefore remained supported above US$16,000/t through 2018 for battery-grade lithium carbonate, while the medium term outlook has been strengthened by the rejection of Albemarle (ALB US) and SQM’s plans to raise output at the Salar de Atacama. End users are therefore compelled to seek supply outside of Chile to meet their needs. Recommendation and Target Price The shares are down 76% YTD as weak lithium sentiment has driven lithium equities lower globally while BCN performance was compounded by the pulled financing. However, following our site visit we are convinced of the viability of Oliver O’Donnell, CFA, Natural Resources the Sonora project and that BCN has the expertise to deliver the attractive +44 (0)20 3617 5180 | [email protected] returns and the high quality LCE production promised. We initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation and target price of 115p/sh. #VSA Capital acts as Research Provider for Bacanora Lithium. This research brochure is a MARKETING COMMUNICATION. It is not investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote investment research independence and is also not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination of investment research. Investment Case We believe that Bacanora Lithium (BCN LN)# has positioned itself as one of the most significant lithium projects globally and has delineated a path to construction and production. The weakness in the shares this year, primarily caused by the decline in off spec lithium prices in China was compounded by the delay in completion of the project financing. However, we are convinced that the fundamentals of the project are robust with attractive economics , a strong operational team and viable processing capability. The decline in valuation therefore offers investors a highly attractive risk reward profile. Although the pilot plant significantly derisks the process risk with a market capitalisation of just £35m we believe that investors are deeply compensated for risks surrounding execution and the perception surrounding BCN being the first lithium producer to commercially exploit a soft rock deposit. Investors should be reassured by the already strong list of expert shareholders and industry specialist groups that are backing the Sonora project. The initial drawdown of US$25m from the RK Mining facility means final engineering work is underway, along with preparations for construction. Project financing does, however, remain the key hurdle. Although following our recent site visit, we are convinced of the asset potential and ability of the management team to execute development. Sonora Project Location SOURCE: Company data, VSA Capital Research. Our interpretation of the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) along with current macro assumptions results in a post-tax NPV of US$935m. Upfront capital cost of US$420m and cash costs of US$4,350/tpa imply strong free cash flow particularly once the capital intensive period is over after year five and stage two commences. We anticipate that first production will be mid-2021, (FY 2022) having assumed an additional six months of construction time given the inherent nature of delays in the industry. This assumes that the remainder of the project finance is secured in H1 2019. Sonora Project, Overview Stage 1 Stage 2 LoM Average Li2CO3 Production, kt 17.9 36.0 31.3 Operating Cost (before by-product credits), US$/t 4,542 4,298 4,350 Operating Cost (after by-product credits), US$/t 4,097 3,862 3,912 Capex Requirement, US$m 420 370 15pa sustaining Attributable Post Tax NPV Combined (8.2% WACC), US$m 935 SOURCE: Company data, VSA Capital Research. - 2 - Currently the two phase project anticipates a design capacity of around 35ktpa although resource grades indicate that this can be exceeded. However, the resource defined to date which remains open has contained lithium carbonate of 8.8mnt LCE. This implies just 7% of the resource is used in the initial 20 years at these production rates. Therefore, given the expectations for lithium demand growth of the next two decades, BCN is in a strong position to further expand its capacity. Stage two involves replicating the processing plant of phase two and this modular design could be repeated to increase output in line with growing demand. This is a key reason we believe offtakers have found the project attractive because they can rely on a consistent supply of product where output can be scaled up. Given the importance of consistency in the lithium carbonate used in lithium ion batteries this is a key part of the investment case, in our view. Sonora Project Overview 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F LCE output, kt - - 11 19 19 18 23 36 36 36 36 LCE price, US$/t 17,500 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 Revenue - - 153 345 292 261 332 521 521 521 521 EBITDA (12) (12) 69 249 196 165 158 331 330 330 330 Operating Profit (12) (12) 69 249 196 165 158 331 330 330 330 Net Income (12) (57) 26 151 105 84 79 200 199 199 199 Capex, US$m (200) (200) (21) (15) (175) (225) (15) (15) (15) (15) (15) FCF, US$m (200) (200) 28 159 (38) (109) 96 216 216 216 216 SOURCE: Company data, VSA Capital Research. Our assumptions on cash costs, which we believe are conservative at US$4,350/t (DFS US$3,900/t) over the LoM imply strong EBITDA margins typically above 60% each year and an attractive position on the cost curve. SOP production of 35ktpa provides a modest boost to the economics however, our assumptions for cash costs before by-product credits of US$4,350/t are attractive in their own right, in our view. These assumptions would comfortably place BCN at the lower end of the cost curve in contrast to much of the near term supply growth which is primarily spodumene concentrate production. Once the cost of conversion of spodumene concentrate is included, hard rock production occupies the fourth quartile of the cost curve which to produce an end product is now as high as US$12,000/t in some cases. Forecast Free Cash Flow and Capex, US$m 250 Capex, US$m FCF, US$m 200 150 100 50 - (50) (100) (150) (200) (250) 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F SOURCE: Company data, VSA Capital Research. Therefore BCN stands out versus its peer group. Brine processing relies on an arid climate and evaporation and takes months to produce a lithium carbonate product, whereas BCN’s pyromet and hydromet process, which has been - 3 - extensively proven in its pilot plant and verified by multiple offtakers, combines attractive cash costs with a rapid production process which is not reliant on climatic conditions.
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