The Big Picture - Rising Oceans, Sinking Cities

Introduction

Oceans act as a sponge for the ill effects of the climate change by absorbing heat and CO2 generated by greenhouse gas emissions. However these same oceans are likely to unleash their wrath on a global scale. According to a draft report of United Nations Intergovernmental Penal on Climate Change destructive changes have already been set in motion. The draft report says that even with most optimistic emission reduction scenario,by the year 2050 many low lying megacities and small island nations will experience extreme sea level events every year. Report says that the big four - United States of America, China, India and European Union will face most devastating fall out of the ocean and ice related impacts of climate change. IPCC has meanwhile said that final report will be released in September after a thorough discussion with all stakeholders.

Climate Change

 The Earth's climate has changed throughout history. In the last 650,000 years, there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of the last ice age about 7,000 years ago marking the beginning of the modern climate era, and of human civilization.  The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is extremely likely (almost greater than 95%) to be the result of human activity since the mid-20th century and is proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented over decades to millennia.  The oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of more than 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969.  Global sea level rose about 8 inches in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century and is accelerating slightly every year.

IPCC

 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations, dedicated to providing the world with an objective, scientific view of climate change, its natural, political and economic impacts and risks, and possible response options.

 The IPCC was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and was later endorsed by the United Nations General Assembly.  Membership is open to all members of the WMO and UN.  The IPCC produces reports that contribute to the work of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the main international treaty on climate change.  IPCC reports cover the “scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.”

Key Highlights of the draft report:

 The Draft report says that even with the most optimistic emission reduction scenario, by the year 2050 small island nations and many low lying mega cities will experience extreme sea level events every year.  The „Big 4‟ countries (USA, China, India and the European Union) will face the most devastating fallout of ocean and ice related impacts of Climate change.  Although three of them (except India) have been the major contributors to this man- made problem, yet the biggest sufferers from climate change would be the smaller island nations & countries.  For e.g, Kiribati is expected to wipe out & Kiribas are looking for land in other places.  Indonesia recently changed its capital from Jakarta to Borneo due to the fear of submergence of the world‟s fastest sinking city, i.e, Jakarta.  According to the draft report, even if Paris agreement targets are met on time, global emissions will reach up to 3°C.

 Paris agreement just ended the capping & fixed target system that was adopted during the Kyoto protocol, & introduced a new system known as the ‘Pledge & Review system.’ What are the Flaws in the Paris Agreement?  Compared to the Kyoto protocols, the Paris agreement did away with the capping of fixed target for the signatories.  Kyoto Protocol-1 (2005-12) had set a target of 5% emission reduction for the industrialised countries.  Kyoto Protocol-2 increased the target to 18% reduction by industrialised countries, even though its implementation never came through.

 The pledge and review system introduced by the Paris agreement falls short of the earlier protocols.  IPCC draft report indicates that even if the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) targets of different countries are achieved, it will not be sufficient for resisting the impacts of climate change.  Further, it was only because of the small island countries (who fear a wash out from sea level rise) that along with the target of maximum 2 degree C target of average global temperature rise, the clause of hopefully achieving 5 degree C was included. At present the goals set by countries may amount to a 3 degree C reduction only. Kyoto Protocol  The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997 and entered into force in 2005.  The detailed rules for the implementation of the Protocol were adopted at COP-7 in Marrakesh, in 2001, and are referred to as the Marrakesh Accords.  Its first commitment period started in the year 2008 and ended in 2012.  Kyoto Protocol Phase-1 (2005-12) gave the target of cutting down emissions by 5%.  Kyoto Round- 2 gave the target of reducing emissions by at least 18% by the industrialized countries. Global Actions Aggravating Climate Change

 Paris agreement is losing its force today.  The US has withdrawn from the Paris agreements, and the US President was absent at the recently held G7 summit.  Even China is opening new coal mines because of its trade war with the US, thereby reducing its pollution control measures.  Brazil is ignoring the repercussions of „development‟ on the environment. The recent example of which is the deadly amazon forest fires. The same is the case with Canada, Bolivia, & Australia.

Consequences:

 These rising sea levels pose a major threat to island nations and coastal areas meaning that these areas could be swamped and submerged by water anytime in the future.  In countries like the United States, where almost 40 percent of the population resides in coastal areas, the flooding due to sea-level rise is expected to create adverse effects.  Additionally, because of global warming and the resultant rising sea levels, there is a threat of extinction of several types of plants and animals which need and thrive only in the cold climate

 Governments across the world are not sufficiently prepared to face the challenge of rising levels of oceanic tides and ocean line.  Almost none of the governments have devised strategies to safeguard their coastal areas during such disastrous situations.  If the climatic conditions are going to continue, it will be difficult to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) before the set timeline of 2030.  It is much difficult for reaching an agreement for joint effort by all the countries across the world.  Amidst all this, there is a growing sense of uncertainty about the cost of adaptation to the changing climatic conditions.

Way Forward

The challenges of droughts, shrinking & sinking cities, high temperatures that we face today demand much more aggressive efforts. The time for action has come.

China‟s resolve to prepone & fulfill its NDC targets from 2030 to 2025 is a welcome step in mitigating climate change.

The draft report of IPCC has influenced the public domain by clearly indicating the amount and range of threat posed by climate change to humanity and the planet as a whole.

India needs to take up a pole position and provide out of the box solutions, which are achievable in a given timeframe, while calibrating her own developmental needs.