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Futures Guide 2018 Philadelphia Phillies Sixto Sanchez RHP OFP: 70 Likely: 60 ETA: 2021 1 Born: 07/29/98 Age: 19 Bats: R Throws: R Height: 6'0" Weight: 185 Origin: International Free Agent, 2015 YEAR TEAM LVL AGE W L SV G GS IP H HR BB/9 K/9 K GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA WARP PF 2015 DPH RK 16 1 2 0 11 2 25² 32 0 2.1 6.3 18 48% .340 1.48 4.56 3.96 0.5 77 2016 PHL RK 17 5 0 0 11 11 54 33 0 1.3 7.3 44 57% .236 0.76 0.50 3.30 1.5 97 2017 LWD A 18 5 3 0 13 13 67¹ 46 1 1.2 8.6 64 49% .251 0.82 2.41 2.10 2.5 81 2017 CLR A+ 18 0 4 0 5 5 27² 27 1 2.9 6.5 20 42% .295 1.30 4.55 4.66 0.2 92 2018 PHI MLB 19 3 5 0 19 12 68¹ 76 18 3.7 8.6 65 46% .314 1.52 6.04 6.75 -1.0 95 2019 PHI MLB 20 6 10 0 31 23 155 159 39 3.1 8.6 148 46% .306 1.37 5.80 6.48 -1.3 95 Breakout: 0% Improve: 0% Collapse: 0% Attrition: 0% MLB: 0% Comparables: Vicente Campos, Noah Syndergaard, Manny Banuelos The Good: We here at the Baseball Prospectus prospect team try to avoid needless hyperbole, so please read this next sentence in your head with maximum gravitas—perhaps with Walter Cronkite’s gravely serious baritone intonation: Sixto Sanchez has seven potential average-or-better pitches. This requires splitting the fastball out into three distinct pitches—and they sure work like that at times; there are also two different changes (he’s unlikely to throw both in the majors), and he’s just fooling around with a slider right now. But this is as deep an arsenal as there is in the minors, and hoo-boy, is it good. Sanchez’s four-seam fastball can touch triple digits when he feels like it, and he complements it with a mid-90s variation with late cut that bores into lefties hands and a two-seamer that touches 99 with late sink and run. The split-change variation flashes plus-plus, and his curve might get there as well. He can manipulate the shape and velocity of the breaker much as he does the fastball. Although it’s unclear what the final-major league arsenal will look like at this point—as he was throwing the kitchen sink for much of the season—Sanchez has plenty of potential plus options to choose from. Despite his size, the velocity comes easy. He’s a premium athlete on the mound, and he has a precocious feel for pitching and sequencing. At times it seemed like he was toying with hitters. The Bad: Because of his size and three-quarters slot, Sanchez doesn’t always have ideal plane/movement on the fastball. He didn’t miss as many bats as you’d expect given the stuff, although the top-line results were good. He doesn’t look like a starting pitcher, and he was treated with kid gloves as an 18-year-old in full-season ball, making 18 starts and throwing only 95 innings. He will cast the circle-change at times, and the breaking-ball range he shows might be inconsistent shape rather than purposeful manipulation. The Risks: Very high. You can’t quibble with the stuff or feel for pitching, but the Phillies have been very cautious with Sanchez so far. We don’t know how the frame will hold up deep into games/seasons. And while I prefer him to Anderson Espinoza at similar development points, one need only look at Espinoza’s lost 2017 to see that this can turn into a ball of chalk quite quickly. And even ignoring all that, he was an 18-year-old in A-ball. He could be 6-foot-4, 200 pounds and have thrown 120 innings and there would still be projection risk here. Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: There are many, many glowing things to say about Sanchez the prospect. Yet he remains a pitcher, and even the best pitching prospects in the low minors require plenty of cold water. Sanchez is one of the few arms in the minors with real SP1 upside, combining the type of strikeout and WHIP prowess that is only seen with the elite, but we’re four years away from even dreaming on that from a ETA and workload perspective. A lot can happen in four years. 239 FUTURES GUIDE 2018 J.P. Crawford SS OFP: 60 Likely: 55 ETA: Debuted in 2017 2 Born: 01/11/95 Age: 23 Bats: L Throws: R Height: 6'2" Weight: 180 Origin: Round 1, 2013 Draft (#16 overall) YEAR TEAM LVL AGE PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG/OBP/SLG TAv VORP BABIP BRR FRAA WARP PF 2015 CLR A+ 20 95 15 1 0 1 8 14 9 5 2 .392/.489/.443 .369 15.1 .435 1.1 SS(20) 0.8 1.7 97 2015 REA AA 20 405 53 21 7 5 34 49 45 7 2 .265/.354/.407 .272 21.9 .289 1.0 SS(86) 6.8 3.1 106 2016 REA AA 21 166 23 8 0 3 13 30 21 5 3 .265/.398/.390 .283 11.7 .295 1.3 SS(36) 6.0 1.9 115 2016 LEH AAA 21 385 40 11 1 4 30 42 59 7 4 .244/.328/.318 .241 10.4 .284 2.1 SS(87) -3.2 0.7 98 2017 LEH AAA 22 556 75 20 6 15 63 79 97 5 4 .243/.351/.405 .265 28.0 .275 1.6 SS(113) -6.0, 3B(6) -0.7 2.0 101 2017 PHI MLB 22 87 8 4 1 0 6 16 22 1 0 .214/.356/.300 .263 3.2 .306 -0.2 3B(13) 2.3, SS(6) 0.4 0.6 94 2018 PHI MLB 23 534 65 20 3 14 59 66 106 5 2 .236/.333/.383 .253 20.6 .275 -0.6 SS 2 1.5 95 2019 PHI MLB 24 549 71 21 4 17 66 68 111 5 2 .245/.341/.414 .272 24.6 .283 -0.2 SS 2 2.9 95 Breakout: 2% Improve: 29% Collapse: 6% Attrition: 17% MLB: 51% Comparables: Greg Garcia, Daniel Robertson, Gavin Cecchini The Good: Although he hasn’t banked a highlight reel of spectacular plays like we associate with Andrelton Simmons or Elvis Andrus, Crawford is quietly a potential plus-plus glove at the 6. He’s a smooth, rangy fielder with good instincts and a plus arm. The total package is better than the sum of any individual defensive tool. The Phillies worked him out at second and third in 2017, and he was excellent there as well—as you’d expect. At the plate, his 2017 struggles were greatly exaggerated, and once fully healthy, he ripped through the International League in July and August. Crawford finally showed flashes of taking his plus raw power into games, and if he can that more consistently, this ranking and role may be low. He shows a strong approach at the plate and an ability to adjust to pitchers from at-bat to at-bat. The Bad: Crawford works a lot of deep counts, by design, and with those come strikeouts, especially since the hit tool looks more like a 5 nowadays than our previous plus projections. We’ve waxed about his raw power for years, but it hasn’t shown up outside of 60 games or so last summer in Lehigh Valley. He’s still a plus runner, but he doesn’t always play like that on the bases. Crawford might just be a .250/.330/.330 hitter, which with that glove is a useful regular at shortstop, but not much more than that. The Risks: Crawford has already accrued major-league at-bats, and his plus-plus glove at short gives him a high floor. Whether the offensive contributions play as an OBP-driven .650 OPS or .750 OPS will determine the ultimate major-league outcome here. If you want to look for positive risk, you can find it. I still think a role 7 outcome is possible, especially if the raw power can find its way into games in the coming seasons. Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: As much guff as Crawford has gotten in fantasy circles, he remains the top prospect in this system for our purposes. The plate discipline is still very strong, and there’s enough in every category to wishcast a top-ten shortstop (albeit a back-end one) capable of 15 homers and 15 steals. He’s like Xander Bogaerts if you forgot Bogaerts was supposed to have more thunder in his bat—just with a handful more walks and fewer hits. Scott Kingery 2B OFP: 60 Likely: 55 ETA: 2018 3 Born: 04/29/94 Age: 24 Bats: R Throws: R Height: 5'10" Weight: 180 Origin: Round 2, 2015 Draft (#48 overall) YEAR TEAM LVL AGE PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG/OBP/SLG TAv VORP BABIP BRR FRAA WARP PF 2015 LWD A 21 282 43 9 2 3 21 18 43 11 1 .250/.314/.337 .251 7.4 .287 2.6 2B(65) 0.7 0.9 88 2016 CLR A+ 22 420 60 29 3 3 28 33 54 26 5 .293/.360/.411 .290 26.0 .334 1.6 2B(88) 7.7 3.5 99 2016 REA AA 22 166 16 7 0 2 18 5 36 4 2 .250/.273/.333 .220 -0.6 .306 1.9 2B(37) -1.4 -0.2 117 2017 REA AA 23 317 62 18 5 18 44 28 51 19 3 .313/.379/.608 .337 34.9 .324 2.7 2B(59) 1.7 4.0 104 2017 LEH AAA 23 286 41 11 3 8 21 13 58 10 2 .294/.337/.449 .269 9.8 .348 -1.2 2B(54) 0.9, 3B(4) 0.3 1.1 101 2018 PHI MLB 24 90 12 4 1 3 11 5 21 3 1 .253/.300/.434 .247 2.6 .295 0.3 2B 1 0.2 95 2019 PHI MLB 25 275 34 14 2 10 36 16 65 8 2 .252/.303/.439 .261 9.5 .296 1.0 2B 2 1.2 95 Breakout: 4% Improve: 18% Collapse: 5% Attrition: 24% MLB: 40% Comparables: Alen Hanson, Ryan Brett, Joey Wendle The Good: The upper minors was always going to be a test for Kingery’s profile, and he passed it with flying colors in 2017.
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