MOS MPU, MCU, AND PERIPHERALS 6 MARKET TRENDS
OVERVIEW
MOS microcomponents include MPUs, MCUs, DSP devices, and microperipheral devices. As defined by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), microprocessors (MPUs) are program- mable devices that execute programs stored in external memory. Microcontrollers (MCUs) con- tain all of a computerÕs electronic components, including program memory, on a single chip. Digital signal processors (DSPs) are processors that are optimized to process highly math-inten- sive digitized analog signals. Microperipherals (MPRs) are peripheral chips such as sound and video devices designed to work with MPUs and MCUs.
Quarterly history of the MOS microcomponent market between 1990 and 1996 is shown in Figure 6-1. It is interesting to note the repetitive ASP pattern that occurred in each year since 1990. In the fourth quarter of each year, the microcomponent ASP surged. The growth extended into the first quarter of the following year before declining during the middle two quarters. Beginning in the second half of 1994, the microcomponent market grew rapidly as sales of less costly 486 and hot- selling Pentium MPUs took off. For three years in a row (1993-1995), the microcomponent market experienced excellent growth (40 percent in 1995, 25 percent in 1994, and 37 percent in 1993).
Figure 6-2 shows unit volume and average selling price (ASP) details for the major segments of the microcomponent market. Severe price erosion on 486s and steady price reductions on Pentiums contributed to a seven percent decline in ASPs for the 32-/64-bit MPU segment in 1996. Average selling prices may have declined further, but Intel continued to introduce newer, faster, and more expensive devices throughout the year. Meanwhile, microprocessor unit shipments continued to demonstrate solid growth (16 percent in 1996), led by strong shipments of 32-/64-bit MPUs for PC and embedded applications.
Besides the 32-/64-bit MPU segment, 16-/32-bit MCU and microperipheral unit shipments also grew nicely during 1996 (51 and 21 percent, respectively) in 1996. Growth in the form of com- munications, graphics, voice, and other support functions for PCs exploded in 1995. In 1996, that growth continued but many of the peripheral functions that were Òadd-onÓ features in 1995 were incorporated onto the MPU chip in 1996. This contributed to a slower unit growth rate for microperipherals. Overall, the ASP in the MOS microcomponent segment decreased two percent in 1996 and unit volume increased 14 percent.
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 6-1 MOS MPU, MCU, and Peripherals Market Trends
11,500 8.0 10,915 10,750
10,000 7.5
9,250 $7.50 8,500 7.0
7,750 6.5 7,000 ASP 6,250 6.0 5,500 ASP ($) 4,750 5.5
BILLINGS IN MILLIONS 4,000
3,250 Dollar Volume 5.0 2,500
1,750 1,455 4.5 1,000 Unit Volume
250 4.0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q (EST) 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Year Source: ICE, "Status 1997" 16887L
Figure 6-1. MOS MPU, MCU, and MPR Market Trends (Dollars and Units in Millions)
1994/1993 1994/1993 1995/1994 1995/1994 1996/1995 1996/1995 1993 1994 1995 1996 Percent Unit Volume Percent Unit Volume Percent Unit Volume Product ASP ASP ASP ASP Change Percent Change Percent Change Percent ($) ($) ($) (EST, $) In ASP Change In ASP Change In ASP Change MPUs 8-bit 3.10 3.52 14 Ð11 3.80 8 Ð14 3.63 Ð4 Ð17 16-bit 10.29 9.88 Ð4 Ð12 7.92 Ð20 34 6.08 Ð23 2 32-bit/64-bit 150.19 150.51 — 31 131.03 Ð13 51 121.43 Ð7 35 Total MPU 51.50 64.60 25 2 67.36 4 25 71.47 6 16 MCUs 4-bit 1.64 1.62 Ð1 5 1.59 Ð2 Ð2 1.33 Ð12 1 8-bit 3.45 3.33 Ð3 28 3.39 2 21 2.98 Ð12 13 16-bit/32-bit 8.13 7.86 Ð3 100 8.26 5 66 7.05 Ð15 51 Total MCU* 2.71 2.82 Ð4 19 3.07 9 14 2.81 Ð8 11 MPRs 5.04 5.61 11 4 6.55 17 57 6.34 Ð3 21 Total Micro 6.02 6.54 9 15 7.33 12 25 7.22 Ð2 14 *Not including DSP Source: ICE, "Status 1997" 16888L
Figure 6-2. Microcomponent ASPs and Unit Volume Change
6-2 INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION MOS MPU, MCU, and Peripherals Market Trends
Figure 6-3 shows the microcomponent market growth rates from 1993-1996. Growth figures for the MPU and MPR categories remained solid in 1996 while the MCU category grew only eight percent. Despite the single-digit growth of the total MCU market, two segments within the MCU category enjoyed the highest percentage increases for market size. DSPs (42 percent) and 16-/32- bit MCUs (29 percent) experienced the best growth within the microcomponent market. Also per- forming well was the 32-/64-bit MPU market with 25 percent growth. As a whole, the MOS microcomponent market increased 17 percent in 1996. For 1997, ICE forecasts the microcompo- nent market to increase another 17 percent.
1994/1993 1995/1994 1996 1996/1995 1993 1994 1995 PRODUCT Percent Percent (EST, Percent ($M) ($M) ($M) Change Change $M) Change MPUs 8-bit 200 200 — 185 Ð8 145 Ð22 16-bit 520 440 Ð15 465 6 365 Ð22 32-/64-bit 7,870 10,355 32 13,630 32 17,000 25 Total MPU 8,590 10,995 28 14,280 30 17,510 23 MCUs 4-bit 1,700 1,770 4 1,700 Ð4 1,440 Ð15 8-bit 3,700 4,565 23 5,665 24 5,600 Ð1 16-/32-bit 485 940 94 1,640 74 2,115 29 DSPs 675 1,000 48 1,730 73 2,460 42 Total MCU 6,560 8,275 26 10,735 30 11,615 8 MPRs 3,920 4,550 16 8,385 84 9,825 17 Total Microcomponent 19,070 23,820 25 33,400 40 38,950 17
Source: ICE, "Status 1997" 17204K
Figure 6-3. 1993-1996 Microcomponent Market
Another perspective of the MOS MPU, MCU, and peripherals market is shown in Figure 6-4. Clearly leading the way in terms of market size is the MPU category, specifically 32-/64-bit MPUs. High-performing and high-priced MPU devices targeted for the PC and workstation/server envi- ronments kept this the largest segment of the microcomponent market again in 1996.
Figure 6-5 provides a forecast of MOS microcomponent consumption by geographic region for 1996. In 1991, Japan and North America consumed about the same percentage of microcompo- nents. However, in 1996, ICE estimates that North America was the microcomponent consump- tion leader with 36 percent of the market. Japan, Europe, and the ROW each had about equal shares of the microcomponent market in 1996.
Figure 6-6 lists the quarterly microcomponent market by region. Clearly, Europe and Asia Pacific were the fastest-growing regions in 1996. Accelerated PC growth in both regions was the driving force that led to the increases. Meanwhile, after having surged in 1995, market growth in North America and in Japan cooled in 1996.
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 6-3 MOS MPU, MCU, and Peripherals Market Trends
DSP NMOS 6% $2.5B 2% 4-bit 4% $1.4B
CMOS 98% 8-bit 14% Peripherals $5.6B 25% $9.8B
MCUs 1996 30% (EST) $11.6B $39.0B 16-bit 32-/64-bit and 32-bit 44% 6% $17.0B $2.1B
MPUs 45% $17.5B 8-bit <1% 16-bit $0.15B 1% $0.37B
Source: ICE, "Status 1997" 16913L
Figure 6-4. 1996 MOS MPU, MCU, and Peripherals Markets
ROW 21% (17%) North America 36% 1996 (EST) Japan $39.0B (31%) 20% (33%) Europe 23% (19%)
( ) = 1991 share of market
Source: ICE, "Status 1997" 16319M
Figure 6-5. 1996 MOS Microcomponent Consumption
Regional microcomponent production is displayed in Figure 6-7. North American companies were the leading suppliers to the microcomponent market again in 1996, with Intel accounting for over 40 percent of the worldÕs microcomponent supply. On the other hand, ROW and European companies had fairly insignificant microcomponent marketshare.
6-4 INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION MOS MPU, MCU, and Peripherals Market Trends 4,000 4,000
3,750 3,673
3,500 3,362 3,332 3,237 3,182 3,170
3,250 3,113 3,000 2,800 2,750 2,500 2,224 2,200 2,150 2,123 2,250 2,125 1,924 1,915 1,931 1,924 1,901 1,899
2,000 1,879 1,865 1,780 1,789 1,721 1,714 1,701 1,698
1,750 1,646 1,535 1,445
1,500 1,389 Millions of Dollars 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 1Q95 3Q95 1Q96 3Q96 1Q95 3Q95 1Q96 3Q96 1Q95 3Q95 1Q96 3Q96 1Q95 3Q95 1Q96 3Q96 2Q95 4Q95 2Q96 4Q96 2Q95 4Q95 2Q96 4Q96 2Q95 4Q95 2Q96 4Q96 2Q95 4Q95 2Q96 4Q96 (EST) (EST) (EST) (EST) North America Europe Japan Asia Pacific Market Change 1996/1995 10% 30% 5% 27%
Source: WSTS/ICE, "Status 1997" 17886H
Figure 6-6. Quarterly Microcomponent Geographic Market Trends
Intel 43% (38%)
North American 1996 (EST) Companies $39.0B 72% (70%) Japanese Companies 21% (23%)
ROW Companies 2% European (2%) Companies 5% (5%)
( ) = 1995 Production Source: ICE, "Status 1997" 13336S
Figure 6-7. 1996 MOS MPU, MCU, and Peripherals Production
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 6-5 MOS MPU, MCU, and Peripherals Market Trends
Figure 6-8 provides a look at end-use applications for each of the microcomponent segments. It should come as no surprise that computers were the driving force in all three segments, but espe- cially for MPUs. With wide-spread applications such as communications and consumer devices (stereos, appliances, cell phones, etc.), the percentage of end-use applications in the MCU and MPR categories is much more balanced.
Consumer 2%
Industrial 4% Auto 3%
Communications 5%
MPUs $17.5B Computer 86%
Military 1% Military 1% Industrial 6% Industrial 7% Auto 8%
Consumer 10% Communications Auto 11% 19% Computer MCUs 36% MPRs Computer $11.6B $9.8B 54% Communications Consumer 20% 27%
Source: ICE, "Status 1997" 21683
Figure 6-8. 1996 Microcomponent Usage By System Type
TOP TEN MANUFACTURERS
ICEÕs estimate of the leading MOS microcomponent suppliers for 1995 and 1996 is shown in Figure 6-9. Combined, these top suppliers accounted for approximately three-fourths of the microcomponent market in each year.
It comes as no surprise that Intel was again the leading microcomponent supplier in 1996. Its microcomponent sales far exceeded those of its nearest competitors. Even during a so-called down year for most of the IC industry, strong demand for Intel MPUs (specifically, its Pentium MPU) continued to the point where it now supplies a full 85 percent of the worldÕs PC MPUs. Further, Intel has a good selling RISC processor (i960) and strengthened its peripheral product line-up as well.
6-6 INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION MOS MPU, MCU, and Peripherals Market Trends
1996 1995 1996 1996/1995 Rank Company Sales Sales Percent ($M) (EST, $M) Change
1 Intel 12,730 16,600 30 2 Motorola 2,995 2,545 Ð15 3 NEC 2,235 2,460 10 4 Hitachi 1,515 1,745 15 5 TI 1,290 1,380 7 6 Toshiba 1,148 1,250 9 7 Mitsubishi 1,012 1,135 12 8 Philips 665 1,088 64 9 Cirrus Logic 1,187 975 Ð18 10 AMD 755 850 13 10 IBM 640 850 33 Total 26,172 30,878 18 Source: ICE, "Status 1997" 16316N
Figure 6-9. 1996 Top Ten MOS Microcomponent Sales Leaders
MICROCOMPONENT DSP 10% 4-bit FORECAST $9.1B <1% $0.8B 8-bit ICEÕs forecast of the microcompo- 8% nent market in the year 2001 is $7.9B shown in Figure 6-10. By that year, Peripherals 25% there will be a noticeable shift MCUs $22.8B toward more complex MPUs. 27% $25.5B 16-/32-bit Nearly all MPU sales will be 32- and 2001 8% (FCST) $7.8B 64-bit devices. Higher ASPs associ- $93.5B 8-bit ated with these complex products <1% will account for their increased 32-/64-bit 16-bit 48% <1% share (to 48 percent in 2001, up from $44.9B $0.2B 44 percent in 1996) of the microcom- MPUs ponent market. 48% $45.1B Meanwhile, MCU sales will still be led by the ubiquitous 8-bit device, Source: ICE, "Status 1997" 13364S but 16- and 32-bit devices are fore- Figure 6-10. MOS MPU, MCU, and Peripherals cast to show strong gains. Market Forecast Microcontroller replacement is often cited as one of the most promising markets for DSPsÑespecially at the 16-bit and 32-bit levels. By the year 2001, DSPs are forecast to represent 10 percent of the microcomponent market.
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 6-7 MOS MPU, MCU, and Peripherals Market Trends
THE MCU MARKET
As defined by WSTS, a microcontroller is a stand alone device that performs dedicated or embed- ded computer functions within an electronic system without the need of other support circuits. Unlike MPUs, a microcontroller contains almost all of its memory on-chip usually in the form of ROM, EPROM, or EEPROM. The memory is programmed to store customer-supplied instructions.
In 1996, the MCU market was about two-thirds the size of the MPU market. In terms of unit ship- ments, however, MCUs outshipped MPUs by roughly a 14:1 margin in 1996 (Figure 6-11). Despite ongoing performance improvements, activities in the MCU market are often overshadowed by microprocessors.
18,000 3,500 MPU (Units) MPU (Dollars) 16,000 3,000 MCU (Units) MCU (Dollars) 14,000 2,500
12,000 2,000 10,000 1,500 8,000 Millions of Units Millions of Dollars 1,000 6,000
4,000 500
2,000 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 (EST) Year Units (M) MCU 1,722 1,902 2,221 2,659 3,067 3,470 MPU 136 143 167 170 212 245 Dollars ($M) MCU 4,850 5,245 6,560 8,275 10,735 11,615 MPU 3,565 5,460 8,590 10,995 14,280 17,510
Source: WSTS/ICE, "Status 1997" 20318C
Figure 6-11. Comparison of the MCU and MPU Markets
MCU growth is being driven by three key sectors: automobiles, office electronics, and consumer electronics. Inexpensive cars from Korea have from five to ten MCUs each, while many luxury cars use 30 to 40. 1996 S-class cars from Mercedes-Benz used 50 MCUs throughout the vehicle.
6-8 INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION MOS MPU, MCU, and Peripherals Market Trends
Meanwhile, the average office has about 20 MCUs, and the typical home has as many as 100 microcontrollers! In recent years, these areas have contributed significantly to the rise in the MCU market and unit growth.
Figure 6-12 projects the number of MCU devices expected to make their way into new cars, homes, and offices through the end of the decade. There is great potential in these three applica- tions. The figure shows that MCUs in the home are forecast to grow to an average of 226 in the year 2000!
250 HOME OFFICE AUTOMOBILE ¥ Appliances ¥ Telephones ¥ Trip computer ¥ Intercom ¥ Computers ¥ Engine control 226 ¥ Telephones ¥ Security systems ¥ Air bag 200 ¥ Security systems ¥ Fax machine ¥ ABS ¥ Garage door openers ¥ Microwave ¥ Instrumentation ¥ Answering machines ¥ Copier ¥ Security system ¥ Fax machines ¥ Laser printer ¥ Transmission control Home ¥ Home computer ¥ Color printer ¥ Entertainment 150 ¥ TVs ¥ TV ¥ Climate control ¥ Cable TV tuner ¥ VCR ¥ Cellular phone ¥ VCR ¥ Remote control ¥ Keyless entry ¥ Camcorder ¥ Paging ¥ Remote controls 100 ¥ Video games ¥ Cellular phones ¥ Musical instruments 69 ¥ Sewing machine ¥ Lighting control 50 ¥ Paging 42 ¥ Camera Office Average Number of Microcontroller ICs ¥ Pinball machine 18 35 Auto ¥ Exercise equipment 2 14 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Source: Motorola/Electronic News/ICE, "Status 1997" 19242
Figure 6-12. Numerous Applications Spur MCU Growth
Numerous applications will allow the MCU market to grow nicely through the early part of the next decade. ICE projects the MCU market to average 17 percent annual growth through the year 2001, when the MCU market is forecast to be $25.5 billion (Figure 6-13). This compares with 19 percent average annual growth of the MCU market during the 1991-1996 time period.
MCUs are typically available in 4-, 8-, and 16-bit configurations. In the past few years, 32-bit devices have started to ship as well. Figure 6-14 shows the percentage of dollars that each den- sity contributed to the MCU market. In this chart, DSPs are included as part of the microcontroller market.
OEMs are turning more often to sophisticated, high-density MCU devices to incorporate into com- plex, embedded-system applications where there is a drive for computing muscle. As a result, market growth will continue in the 16-/32-bit MCU and DSP markets. Meanwhile, erosion of the 8-bit MCU market caused this segment to drop below 50 percent of the total MCU market in 1996.
INTEGRATED CIRCUIT ENGINEERING CORPORATION 6-9 MOS MPU, MCU, and Peripherals Market Trends
28,000
26,000
24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
Millions of Dollars 12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year
MCU Market($M) 4,850 5,245 6,560 8,275 10,735 11,615 13,040 15,375 18,130 21,400 25,520
Source: ICE, "Status 1997" 20438B
Figure 6-13. MCU Market Trends
100