Tuesday, 10 March 2020
Global Economics & Markets Research Email: [email protected] URL: www.uob.com.sg/research Markets Overview
HIGHLIGHTS AHEAD China’s exports and imports fell 17.2% y/y and 4.0% y/y respectively in Jan-Feb in USD terms. Although the export The World Health Organization (WHO), on Monday, said the decline was worse than market’s forecast of -16.2% y/y, the threat of a global pandemic is rising as the new coronavirus import performance was not as bad as consensus forecast rapidly spreads across the world from Asia, to Europe, the of a similar drop. In Jan-Feb 2019, exports and imports Middle East and now parts of the US. Still, WHO officials contracted by 4.6% y/y and 3.1% y/y respectively. The stopped just short of calling a global pandemic, indicating difference from previous year’s export performance likely that they are getting closer to making the declaration, reflected the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on even as China and Singapore appear to have successfully supply chain and domestic production after adjusting for the contained the spread in their countries. seasonal effects of the Lunar New Year while the impact on imports was less severe. For more details, please read our As far as Tuesday’s global economic docket is concerned, report. February’s NFIB small business optimism index will be due in the US. In Europe, we will receive the breakdown of Eurozone real GDP for 4Q. We expect the headline CENTRAL BANK OUTLOOK figure to confirm a growth of 0.1% q/q and 0.9% y/y but the composition will give us a better indication of the resilience Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr in domestic demand. Before all of that, Australia’s NAB will be speaking on Non-Standard Policy later this morning business conditions and confidence for February will be (Tuesday) at 9am SGT. released during the Asian hours at 8.30am SGT.
The Asian docket will see Philippines trade data later at 9am FX SGT. This is followed by a slew of Chinese-centric economic data including CPI and PPI, while money supply and loans The safe-haven JPY and CHF surged on Monday, as risk data is scheduled to be out between 10 – 15 March 2020. appetite plummeted following the crash in oil prices and Elsewhere, Thailand is also slated to release its consumer tumbling equities. The dollar index dropped to its weakest confidence for February as well. since September 2018, and was last at 95.039, down 0.5%. USD/JPY tested 101.20 before moving back to near 102.00, Global confidence continued to waver as COVID-19 cases whilst EUR/USD’s gains fell short of 1.1500. EUR/CHF around the world continue to rise. Concerns are now not bounced a little from early lows, but soon moved back below only centring on global supply chain disruptions, but also 1.0600. GBP/USD showed some early strength moving up on potential demand headwinds as COVID-19 extends as high as 1.3200 before dropping back below 1.3100 by the beyond China which would affect consumption patterns. end of the European morning, before stabilizing near 1.3100. Specifically, weaker demand from developed markets could AUD/USD was the best performer recovering back above potential pose fresh risk to global trade should COVID-19 0.6600 having seen a very sharp dip to a 0.6300-handle risks exacerbates further. in Asia. Though there were off their lows, CAD and NOK remained under pressure with the oil price still sharply lower. Malaysia’s new cabinet line-up was revealed yesterday (9 March 2020), with market’s attention centring on the Broad depreciation in the Asian currency space was seen new Finance Minister, Zafrul Aziz, chief executive officer at yesterday’s closing, which included MYR (-1.1%), IDR of a local bank. Other key appointment holders will also (-1.1%), KRW (-1.0%), SGD (-0.4%) and INR (-0.4%). The include Mustapa Mohamed (Economy), Mohamed Azmin Asian Dollar Index fell 0.4%. PHP however bucked the trend Ali (International Trade and Industry), Ismail Sabri Yaakob and rose 0.1% as market-watchers anticipated a potential (Defence), Fadillah Yusof (Works) and Mohd Radzi Md Jidin narrowing of Philippines’ trade deficit given the sudden oil (Education).
Markets Overview Tuesday, 10 March 2020 1 I Page price crash. Conversely, MYR given Malaysia’s status as a COMMODITIES net-exporter of oil, underperformed most of its Asian peers as the fall in oil prices weigh on the outlook for its oil revenue. Oil prices plunged to multi-year lows on Monday as tensions between Russia and Saudi Arabia escalated, sparking fears that an all-out price war is imminent. Both US West Texas EQUITIES Intermediate (WTI) crude and international benchmark Brent crude posted their worst session since 1991 on Monday. The major US equity indexes plunged heavily on Monday, WTI plunged 24.59%, or $10.15, to settle at $31.13/bbl. with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sinking more than International benchmark Brent crude slid 24.1%, or $10.91, 2,000 points, in its worst session since 15 October 2008, on to settle at $34.36/bbl. fears about the spread of COVID-19 and an oil price war. At the closing bell, the Dow had dropped 2,013.7 points Gold retreated from the $1,700/oz-level touched briefly on (-7.79%) to 23,851.02. The S&P 500 tumbled 225.81 points Monday, as market participants sold the precious metal (-7.60%) to 2,746.56, its worst session since 1 December to cover margin calls amid plunging equities and energy 2008, as markets punished financials and energy stocks. markets, overshadowing bullion’s safe-haven demand. Gold The Nasdaq Composite lost 624.94 points (-7.29%) to had been up as much as 1.7% in a volatile session, having end the day at 7,950.68. The massive sell-off triggered a touched its highest since December 2012 at $1,702.56/oz. key market circuit breaker minutes after the opening bell. Trading was halted for 15 minutes before reopening again. ECONOMIC NEWS & DATA Asian equities continued its sell-off, in line with Wall Street overnight. Asian equities which saw red on yesterday’s Investor confidence in the Eurozone deteriorated more than closing included SET (-8.0%), PSE (-6.8%), JCI (-6.6%), expected in March amid growing COVID-19 concerns across HCM (-6.3%) and STI (-6.0%) as investors react to the Europe. The Sentix investor confidence gauge dropped to sudden plummet in oil prices amid COVID-19 concerns. -17.1 in March from 5.2 in February and against a reading Accounting for the losses seen, the MSCI Asia Ex-Japan of -11.1 expected. Index fell 4.8%, the deepest contraction since August 2015. China’s environment ministry announced a relaxation of environmental rules in a bid to provide economic boost US TREASURIES/BONDS to the COVID-19 hit industries. The government will reportedly waive environment impact assessment rules and Market participants continued to seek safe haven assets remove requirements for on-site environmental inspections amid fears that the COVID-19 outbreak will disrupt global through September 2020. The relaxed rules are said to supply chains and tip the US economy into a recession. include industries specializing in daily necessities, medical The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield resumed equipment production, or those deemed essential to the its historic slide on Monday, dropping below 0.5% for the economic recovery, such as infrastructure projects and key first time ever to briefly touch 0.318%. The 30-year Treasury manufacturing sectors. bond yield also hit a record-low of 0.702%, breaching the 1% threshold for the first time in history. Indonesia reportedly allowed companies to buy back stocks without prior approval of shareholders in a bid to stem Asian bond yields continue to fall especially in the longer the equity sell-off. Firms listed on the stock exchange can tenors, although the 2y- yields were largely mixed. In the now buy back as much as 20% of their paid-up capital, 2y- space, yields were higher in Indonesia (+13.3bps), according to a statement by the Financial Services Authority. Vietnam (+4.3bps) and Malaysia (+0.9bps) while falling in Furthermore, Bloomberg news reports that Bank Indonesia safe haven economies such as Singapore (-13.0bps) and (BI) will intensify intervention in spot currency and non- Thailand (-6.5bps). In the 10y- space, yields were largely deliverable forwards, citing a text message from BI chief lower, seen in Singapore (-21.2bps, the sharpest decline Perry Warjiyo. since September 2013), and Thailand (-12.2bps). Note that Singapore’s 2y- yields fell to its lowest since September 2016, Indonesia Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati commented while the 10y- yields fell to its record low with data stretching that the country’s budget deficit is slated to widen significantly back to 1998. Government bond issuance schedule today to 2.2% - 2.5% of GDP, up from an initial target of 1.76% will include Bank of Thailand 91d-/182d- bills, Hong Kong of GDP, given COVID-19 concerns and falling oil prices. 91d-/182d- bills and MAS 31d-/84d- bills. Consumer confidence in Indonesia has also fallen to 117.7, the lowest in three years, although Bank Indonesia has commented that consumer confidence is expected to remain positive in the next three months given festive season.
Markets Overview Tuesday, 10 March 2020 2 I Page The Philippines has declared a state of public health emergency as the number of COVID-19 cases soared, bringing the total number of infections to 20. The emergency declaration would also mean that prices of basic goods will be capped, while procurement process for medical supplies will be expedited. The public and private health facilities must also report all cases of flu-like illnesses to the authorities.
India economic affairs secretary Atanu Chakraborty commented that “no measures are required (in response to the oil price crash) because these are exogenous factors… (and) the country’s internal economy is absolutely stable”. He added that a lower oil prices “always benefits our country”.
Markets Overview Tuesday, 10 March 2020 3 I Page Economic Indicators 1000 CN Property Investment YTD y/y Feb 9.9% Time Indicators Month Actual Previous 1000 CN Surveyed Jobless Rate Feb 5.2%
09 March 1200 ID Trade Balance USD Feb -864mn 0750 JP GDP sa q/q 4Q F -1.8 -1.6% 1200 ID Exports y/y Feb -3.71% 0750 JP GDP Annualized sa q/q 4Q F -7.1 -6.3% 1200 ID Imports y/y Feb -4.78% 0750 JP GDP Delfator t/t 4Q F 1.2 1.3% 2030 US Empire Manufacturing Mar 12.9 0750 JP GDP Private Consumption q/q 4Q F -2.8 -2.9% 17 March 1600 TW Trade Balance USD Feb 3.30 3.46bn 0400 US Net Long-term TIC Flows USD Jan 85.6bn 10 March 0400 US Total Net TIC Flows USD Jan 78.2bn 0930 CN PPI y/y Feb 0.1% 0830 SG NODX sa m/m Feb 4.6% 0930 CN CPI y/y Feb 5.4% 0830 SG NODX y/y Feb -3.3% 1800 EZ Gross Fix Cap q/q 4Q -3.8% 1100 SK Bank Lending To H/H Total KRW Feb 892.0tn 1800 EZ Household Cons q/q 4Q 0.5% 1630 HK Unemploymnet Rate sa Feb 3.4% 1800 EZ Govt Expend q/q 4Q 0.4% 1730 UK Claimant Count Rate Feb 3.4% 1800 EZ GDPsa q/q 4Q F 0.1% 1730 UK Jobless Claims Change Feb 5.5k 1800 EZ GDP sa y/y 4Q F 0.9% 1730 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Jan 3.8% 11 March 2030 US Retail Sales Advance m/m Feb 0.3% 1730 UK Monthly GDP (3M/3M) Jan 0.1% 2030 US Retail Sales Ex Auto m/m Feb 0.3% 1730 UK Monthly GDP (m/m) Jan 0.3% 2115 US Capacity Utilization Feb 76.8% 1900 US MBA Mortgage Applications Mar - 2200 US NAHB Housing Markit Index Mar 74 2030 US CPI m/m Feb 0.1% 18 March 2030 US CPI Ex Food and Energy m/m Feb 0.2% 1900 US MBA Mortgage Applications Mar - 2030 US CPI Index nsa Feb 257.971 2030 US Building Permits Feb 1550k 2030 US Real Avg Hourly Earning y/y Feb 0.6% 2030 US Housing Starts Feb 1567k 2030 US Real Avg Weekly Earnings y/y Feb 0.0% 19 March 12 March 0200 USD Fed Funds Rate (Upper Bound) Mar 1.75% 0200 US Monthly Budget Statement USD Feb 32.6bn 0200 USD Fed Funds Rate (Lower Bound) Mar 1.50% 1300 SG Retail Sales y/y Jan -3.4% 0200 US Interest Rate on Excess Reserves Mar 1.60% 1300 SG Retail Sales sa m/m Jan -1.0% 0545 NZ GDP sa q/q 4Q 0.7% 2030 US PPI Final Demand m/m Feb 0.5% 0545 NZ GDP y/y 4Q 2.3% 2030 US PPI Ex Food and Energy m/m Feb 0.5% 0830 AU FX Transactions Market AUD Feb 769mn 2030 US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade m/m Feb 0.4% 0830 RBA FX Transactions Other AUD Feb -5499mn 2030 US PPI Final Demand y/y Feb 2.1% 0900 CN Swift Global Payments CNY Feb 1.65% 2030 US PPI Ex Food and Energy y/y Feb 1.7% 1520 IDR 7-Day Reverse Repo Mar 4.75% 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims Mar - 2030 US Current Account Balance USD 4Q -124.1bn 2030 US PPI Ex Food, Energy, Tade y/y Feb 1.5% 2030 US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Mar 36.7 2030 US Continuing Claims Feb - 2030 US Initial Jobless Claims Mar - 2045 EUR Refinancing Rate Mar 0.00% 2030 US Continuing Claims Mar - 13 March 2200 US Leading Index Feb 0.8% 1200 MY Industrial Production y/y Jan 1.3% - TWD Discount Rate Mar 1.375% 1530 TH Foreign Reserves USD Mar - - JPY Policy Rate Mar -0.10% 2030 US Import Price Index m/m Feb 0.0% 20 March 2030 US Import Price INdex ex Petroleum m/m Feb 0.2% 0930 CN 1-Year Loan Prime Rate Mar 4.05% 2030 US Import Price Index y/y Feb 0.3% 0930 CN 5-Year Loan Prime Rate Mar 4.75% 2030 US Export Price Index m/m Feb 0.7% 1530 TH Foreign Reserves USD Mar - 2030 US Export Price Index y/y Feb 0.5% 2200 US Existing Home Sales Feb 5.46mn 2200 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Mar P 101.0 - CN FX Net Settlement - Clients CNY Feb - 2200 US U. of Mich. Current Conditions Mar P 114.8 23 March 2200 US U. of Mich Expectations Mar P 92.1 1300 SG CPI y/y Feb 0.8% 2200 US U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation Mar P 2.4% 1300 SG CPI nsa m/m Feb -0.2% 2200 US U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation Mar P 2.3% 1300 SG CPI Core y/y Feb 0.3% 16 March 1600 TW Industrial Production y/y Feb -1.51% 0930 CN New Home Prices m/m Feb 0.27% 1600 TW Unemployment Rate Feb 3.71%
Markets Overview Tuesday, 10 March 2020 4 I Page Foreign Exchange Rates (as at 09 Mar 2020) Interest Rates FX Close Asian High Asian Low NY High NY Low Rates Current Next CB Meet UOB’s Forecast
EUR 1.1424 1.1495 1.1286 1.1495 1.1286 USD Fed Funds Rate 1.50-1.75% 19 Mar 1.50-1.75% GBP 1.3089 1.3200 1.3019 1.3200 1.3019 EUR Refinancing Rate 0.00% 12 Mar 0.00% AUD 0.6617 0.6634 0.6595 0.6634 0.6595 GBP Repo Rate 0.75% 26 Mar 0.75% NZD 0.6329 0.6363 0.6286 0.6363 0.6286 AUD Official Cash Rate 0.50% 07 Apr 0.50% JPY 102.35 104.93 101.54 104.93 101.19 NZD Official Cash Rate 1.00% 15 Mar 1.00% SGD 1.3831 1.3861 1.3760 1.3861 1.3760 JPY Policy Rate -0.10% 19 Mar -0.10% MYR 4.2172 4.2172 4.1800 4.2172 4.1800 SGD 3-Mth SIBOR 1.46% - - IDR 14393 14393 14255 - - MYR O/N Policy Rate 2.50% 05 May 2.50% THB 31.47 31.63 31.30 - - IDR 7-Day Reverse Repo 4.75% 19 Mar 4.75% PHP 50.590 50.717 50.577 - - THB 1-Day Repo 1.00% 25 Mar 1.00% INR 74.086 74.185 73.861 - - PHP O/N Reverse Repo 3.75% 19 Mar 3.75% TWD 30.130 30.148 29.991 - - INR Repo Rate 5.15% 03 Apr 5.15% KRW 1204.51 1207.18 1189.10 - - TWD Discount Rate 1.375% 19 Mar 1.375% HKD 7.7694 7.7716 7.7653 - - KRW Base Rate 1.25% 09 Apr 1.25% CNY 6.9462 6.9538 6.9104 - - HKD Base Rate 2.50% - 2.50%
Stock Indices (as of 09 Mar 2020)
Indices Closing % chg ytd % chg Commodities (as of 09 Mar 2020)
Dow Jones Industrial Average 23851.02 -7.79 -16.42 Commodities Closing % Chg S&P 500 2746.56 -7.60 -14.99 NYMEX Crude (Apr) 31.13 -24.59 NASDAQ Composite 7950.68 -7.29 -11.39 Comex Gold (Apr) 1675.70 +0.20 Tokyo Nikkei 225 19698.76 -5.07 -16.73 Reuters CRB Index 144.81 -7.08 London FTSE 100 5965.77 -7.69 -20.90 Bond Yields (as of 09 Mar 2020) Frankfurt DAX 10625.02 -7.94 -19.81 Bond Yields Closing Net Chg All Ordinaries 5822.42 -7.41 -14.41 US 2-Year Bond 0.38 +12.5 FTSE Straits Times Index 2782.37 -6.03 -13.67 US 10-Year Bond 0.54 +22.2 FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI 1424.16 -3.97 -10.36 JP 10-Year JGB -0.17 +3.5 Jakarta SE Composite Index 5136.81 -6.58 -18.46 EU 10-Year Bund -0.86 +14.6 Thailand SET Index 1255.94 -7.96 -20.50 UK 10-Year Long Gilt 0.15 +7.8 Philippines SE PSEi 6312.61 -6.76 -19.23
Taiwan SE Weighted Index 10977.64 -3.04 -8.50 Market Holidays/Events Korea SE KOSPI 1954.77 -4.19 -11.05 Country Date Event Hong Kong Hang Seng Index 25040.46 -4.23 -11.17 IN Mar 10 Holi Shanghai SE Composite Index 2943.29 -3.01 -3.50 JP Mar 20 Vernal Equinox Day India Sensex 30 Index 35634.95 -5.17 -13.62 ID Mar 24 Saka New Year IN Apr 2 Ram Navami UOB’s Estimation of USD/SGD based on SGD NEER (as of 10 March 2020) TW Apr 3 Children’s Day Obs Assuming 2.0% on each side of the mid point CN Apr 4-6 Tomb Sweeping Day Lower-End ...... 1.4107 TW Apr 4 Tomb Sweeping Day Upper-End ...... 1.3554 TW Apr 6 Ching Ming Festival Mid-Point ...... 1.3825 IN Apr 6 Mahavir Jayanti TH Apr 6 Chakri Day PH Apr 9 Day of Valor SG/ID/IN/PH Apr 10 Good Friday AU/NZ/US/UK Apr 10 Good Friday
Markets Overview Tuesday, 10 March 2020 5 I Page Disclaimer
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Markets Overview Tuesday, 10 March 2020 6 I Page