Developing Tsunami Damage Estimation and Mitigation Technologies

JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru TsunamiThe 1st JapanGroup ‐ Meeting,Peru Workshop 20 December, at UNI, Peru,2009 15‐16 March, 2010

Tsunami Research Group G2

1 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru TsunamiThe 1st JapanGroup ‐ Meeting,Peru Workshop 20 December, at UNI, Peru,2009 15‐16 March, 2010 Let us imagine again the tsunami disasters.

Banda Aceh Hambanthota Khao Lak

Pangandaran Leone Camana

2 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 Objectives and goals

• To assess the potential tsunami disaster and its impact to the Peruvian coast • To develop the practical technologies to mitigate tsunami risks in Peru • To implement the strategic plans for disaster mitigation of Peruvian government • To contribute the Pacific tsunami disaster mitigation strategies

3 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 Tsunami group member • Dr. Shunichi Koshimura • Msc. Julio Kuroiwa (Leader, (Tohoku Univ., Tsunami CISMID) engineering, Team Leader) • Guillermo Hasembank • Dr. Gaku Shoji (Univ. of (Contralminarte, DHN) Tsukuba, Structural and • Gilberto Tacilla (Tec., DHN) earthquake engineering) • Mr. Cesar Jiménez (Tsunami • Dr. Yushiro Fujii (BRI, Seimology simulation, DHN) and Tsunami modeling) • Carlos Marcos Villanneva (DHN) • Dr. Yuji Yagi (Univ. of Tsukuba, • Dr. Miguel Estrada (CISMID) Seismology) • by Prof. Carlos Alberto Zavala Tóledo Dr. Hideaki Yanagisawa at the kickoff tsunami meeting (TEPSCO, Tsunami modeling) CISMID, Dec 20, 2009

4 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 Research plan ‐ Scientific phase ‐ • Assessing historical tsunami events and its impact in Peru – Tsunami sources – Tsunami hazard (Tsunami generation, near‐shore propagation and coastal inundation) – Damage (Casualties, structural damage) • Indentifying potential tsunamis and the worst case scenarios – Tectonic settings and tsunami source scenarios – Potential tsunami exposure (Exposed population) – Potential impact • Mapping tsunami hazard and its impact – Inundation modeling – Damage estimation (Casualties, structural damage) – Hazard maps, Cartography 5 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 Research plan ‐ Implementation Phase ‐ • Developing a fundamental procedure for mapping tsunami hazard – Training program (Tsunami modeling and mapping) – Warning, guidance and public awareness • Strategic planning to mitigate tsunami risks and damage – Tsunami disaster mitigation program for Peruvian government – Tsunami countermeasures – Design for tsunami evacuation facilities – Tsunami evacuation strategies

6 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 Past events in Peru

NGDC Tsunami Database http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/tsu_db.shtml 7 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 Damage at Camana

Inundation level

8 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 2001 Tsunami ‐ Camana, Peru ‐

Casualty House damage

Dead Missing Injury Major/Minor Collapsed

24 62 41 760 2915

Affected area

9 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 Modeling the 2001 Peruvian tsunami

Tsunami source : Kikuchi and Yamanaka (2001)

10 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 Source process of 2007 Peru earthquake by inversion of tele‐seismic body wave Slip distribution (Map view) Focal mechanism, Source time fun., Slip distribution on fault plane

Yagi (2007) JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 Tsunami Waveform Inversion Result 2010 Chile earthquake

Length: 50 km Width: 50 km for each subfault

12 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 Tsunami modeling technology • Tsunami Modeling techniques (Tsunami‐code to simulate tsunami generation, off‐shore/near‐ shore propagation and coastal inundation)

13 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 Potential tsunami exposure

Global/Regional Tsunami Model Population

Population (LandScan)

Tsunami height (m)

14 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 Tsunami fragility curves • Structural damage probabilities in terms of flow depth, current velocity and hydrodynamic force

15 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 Clarification of failure modes of a structural component by tsunamis Shear cracking of brick masonry wall

せん断ひび割れ

Flexural failure of RC column Tsunami wave Shear cracking of brick masonry wall16 July 17, 2006 South Java JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru ThingsKickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan to ‐ Peru 10 June,discuss Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, are 15‐16 March,open 2010 based on the resolution at the kickoff tsunami meeting • Study area … [1] – One historical event for model verification/validation(Camana, Pisco) – Two potential scenarios (Callao, Chimbote, Pisco, Ilo harbor ; important ports industrial commercial places and exposures) • Data we need – Merged bathymetry /topography grid in study areas (30 meter grid form North Pisco, South Pisco should be requested, Camana is already prepared) – Field survey results for model validation (Pisco, Camana) – Building polygon for structural damage estimation

– Population data for fatality estimation 17 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru ThingsKickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan to ‐ Peru 10 June,discuss Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, are 15‐16 March,open 2010 based on the resolution at the kickoff tsunami meeting

• Human resources… who is going[2] to work on tsunami modeling? Schedule? • What we are going to do in 2010 is – Japan side • Tsunami propagation modeling to identify what the worst‐ case scenario is. • Tsunami damage assessment (Koshimura, Yanagisawa, Shoji) • Collecting field survey data (2001 Camana event) – Peru side • What has been done from Pisco and Camana. • Tsunami issues in Peru (San Marcos Univ. Prof. Ocola, DHN , Mr. Jiménez) 18 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 Engineered concrete Field survey block house at Camana in Dec 21‐22, 2009

Non‐engineered concrete block house Inundation depth 2.60m

La Punta 19 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 Field survey at Callao in Dec 20, 2009

20 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 Potential Tsunami Exposed‐Death

N PTE = ∑ (1/ N)×[]Pop× Fr(H ) i µ i=1 N : Number of Earthquake event

Pop : Population per sell 0°0'0" H : Maximum tsunami height Fr(x): Fragility function of human damage Koshimura et al.,(2009) 10°0'0"S ⎡ H − 5.37 ⎤ Fr(x) = Φ⎢ ⎥ ⎣ 0.72 ⎦ Population Here, the earthquake probability in 100

Northern area (> 9S°) is assumed to 20°0'0"S 0 LandScan 2008 be 100 %. 90°0'0"W 80°0'0"W 70°0'0"W

21 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 The tsunami risk in the coast of Peru – Tentative version ‐

"" " ! """"""" """""" """"" Chiclayo """"" """" "" "" "" " "" """" "" """ " """ """" " Guayaquil "" " " ! " " """" " """ "" "" "" " "" " "" Chimbote " " """ " ! " Iquitos " " """ " """""""" " " "" " """ """ ! "" " " """"" """ "" " "" """" " " "" " "" "" " """ "" "" """" "" """ """ "" " """ "" " """ """ """ """""" Trujillo """""" """ """ 5°0'0"S " """ "" " """"""" ! """" """ " " """""" Chiclayo """""" " 0306015 "" 05 102030 " """"" """"" "" """"! "" """ km km " "" "" " " "" " " " "" """ " "" Trujillo """ """" " """" " """""" "! """" """"" " """"" " "" """ " Chimbote "" """ """" """ """ """ """"! """" " " " """"" """ """" "" """"" " "" Barranca " """"" """" """""" """ """"" """"""! "" """" """""" " """"" "" """ "" Barranca """ 10°0'0"S """ """" " Callao """" " !"" " Lima "" """" """ """ ! "" "" """"" ! """""" "" """ "" """ """"" "" "" """ Callao"" Lima """ " "" "" " """ " """""" "" """"""! """ """"""" """"" """" "" " " """ """ """" "" """"" """ " " """" """"" "" """"" " "" Cuzco 05025 """ " """" " Pisco """"""" 05025 " """ """ "" ! "" km km "" ! "" """ """ " """" " " "" Arequipa "" ! " "" """ " "" """" " "" """"" " "" """"""""" "" "" """"""""""""" "" """"""""""""""""""" " """"""""" """""""" ""

15°0'0"S "" "" "" " " "" Arequipa "" " " " "" """" " " "" """ ! " """"" """"""""""" """" """" " " """"" " " Pisco """""""" " " """""""" """ " " """"" """"" " " """"""" " " " ! "" Potential Exposed-Death " "" " "" "" " "" "" """"""""""" " """" """ " " " """" """ "" """ "" "" """ " "" "" """" """""" "" """ " 0.01 - 10.0 " """"" "" "" """ """ " """""" """""" """""""""""" """""""""""" """"""" "" " "" " """" " 10.0 - 50.0 "" "" """ """"" "" """ "" """" " " " 50.0 - 100.0 " """"" Iquique "" """""" """ 025 50 100 """" " 010205 "" ! "" " "" km """" 20°0'0"S " " km """"""" > 100.0 " 80°0'0"W 75°0'0"W 70°0'0"W 22 JST/JICAJST/JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership forfor Sustainable Development Enhancement of Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation Technology inin Peru KickoffThe 1st Meeting, Japan ‐ Peru 10 June, Workshop 2009 at UNI, Peru, 15‐16 March, 2010 Objectives and goals