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Jubilant Foodworks India Equity Research | Retail © July 21, 2021 Result Update Emkay Jubilant FoodWorks Your success is our success Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report CMP Target Price Rs 3,065 Rs 3,400 (■) as of (July 21, 2021) 12 months Getting ready for hyper growth Rating Upside BUY (■) 10.9 % . JUBI’s Q1 profitability was ~11% ahead of our/street estimates, driven by better margins. Change in Estimates Revenues missed estimates by 3-4%. EBITDA margins stood at 24% (vs. estimate of EPS Chg FY22E/FY23E (%) -/- 21%), aided by lower staff costs resulting from a variable pay structure. Target Price change (%) - . JUBI witnessed nearly a 100% sales recovery in operational stores in Jun’21 vs. Target Period (Months) 12 ~94%/88% in Apr/May’21 (compared to Q1FY20 level). The easing of lockdown curbs and Previous Reco BUY improvement in hours of operation should result in a stronger recovery from Q2. Emkay vs Consensus . Store addition for Domino’s was low (20 new stores) in Q1 due to lockdowns. But JUBI’s EPS Estimates expansion plan is aggressive, with a target of 150-175 new stores in FY22. Management FY22E FY23E is upbeat about digital and tech initiatives aimed at becoming a food tech powerhouse. Emkay 38.4 54.0 . JUBI offers a strong growth outlook with solid expansion plans and increased investments Consensus 36.6 49.8 in digital and tech initiatives, which can further strengthen leadership and offer efficiency Mean Consensus TP (12M) Rs 3,200 gains ahead. Maintain Buy with a TP of Rs3,400, based on 55x Sep’23E EPS. Stock Details Steady performance; reopening to accelerate recovery from Q2: JUBI’s Q1 revenues Bloomberg Code JUBI IN grew ~131% and recovered to 94% of pre-Covid levels, helped by a ~150%/100% recovery Face Value (Rs) 10 in Delivery/Takeaway channels. The Dine-In channel remained impacted with a low 12% Shares outstanding (mn) 132 recovery. In terms of revenue, JUBI saw nearly a 100% recovery in Jun’21 vs. ~94%/88% 52 Week H/L 3,333 / 1,655 recovery in lockdown-impacted months of Apr/May’21. The company increased the number M Cap (Rs bn/USD bn) 404 / 5.42 of stores by 10% to 1,380 from 1,249 at Q1FY20 end. Restriction on hours of operation and Daily Avg Volume (nos.) 559,179 decline in dine-in affected sales recovery. Due to lockdowns, new store openings were relatively lower for Domino’s in Q1 at 20 stores vs. ~50 stores in Q3/Q4FY21. JUBI, however, Daily Avg Turnover (US$ mn) 23.0 expects to open 150-175 new stores in FY22 (mix of full service and delivery stores). JUBI Shareholding Pattern Mar '21 added 3 stores each for Ekdum/Hong’s/Dunkin and 2 Domino’s stores in Sri-Lanka and Promoters 41.9% Bangladesh in Q1. FIIs 40.9% Margins steady due to efficient cost structure; expect some more gains ahead: Despite DIIs 11.4% ~15% lower revenues QoQ, EBITDA margins at 24.1% largely remained flat, helped by a Public and Others 5.8% variable employee cost structure (down 18% qoq) and likely benefits of some rental concessions. Gross margins remained stable at 77.2% in Q1. JUBI has taken a modest hike Price Performance in product prices and delivery charges at Q1-end to wade off the impact of raw material/fuel (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M inflation. Going ahead, it expects to sustain EBITDA margins with plans to invest into digital Absolute (7) 8 9 75 capabilities. Rel. to Nifty (7) (1) 2 23 Solid growth outlook; maintain Buy: Strong cost control in Q1 and management commentary on aggressive store additions and thrust on digital & tech initiatives were key Relative price chart positives. In our view, JUBI’s strong growth outlook, led by SSG recovery on reopening, and 3300 Rs % 40 a solid expansion plan provide more upsides. Maintain Buy with a TP of Rs3,400 (55x 2970 30 Sep’23E EPS). 2640 20 Please see our sector model portfolio (Emkay Alpha Portfolio): Consumer Goods & Retail (Page 8) 2310 10 1980 0 Financial Snapshot (Standalone) 1650 -10 (Rs mn) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E FY24E Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Revenue 38,858 32,689 44,716 55,510 64,518 Jubilant FoodWorks (LHS) Rel to Nifty (RHS) EBITDA 8,771 7,663 11,440 14,589 17,065 Source: Bloomberg This report is solely produced by Emkay Global. The EBITDA Margin (%) 22.6 23.4 25.6 26.3 26.5 following person(s) are responsible for the production of the recommendation: APAT 3,203 2,334 5,065 7,125 8,555 EPS (Rs) 24.3 17.7 38.4 54.0 64.8 Ashit Desai EPS (% chg) (3.1) (27.1) 117.0 40.7 20.1 [email protected] +91 22 6612 1340 ROE (%) 25.6 17.4 32.0 37.4 35.5 P/E (x) 126.3 173.3 79.8 56.8 47.3 Devanshu Bansal [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 45.3 52.0 34.7 26.8 22.5 +91 22 6612 1385 P/BV (x) 34.2 27.0 24.2 19.0 15.1 Source: Company, Emkay Research Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. Jubilant FoodWorks (JUBI IN) India Equity Research | Result Update Story in Charts Exhibit 1: 95% revenue recovery led by strong 150%/100% recovery in Exhibit 2: Store addition for Domino’s was low with 20 new stores due delivery/takeaway; recovery in dine-in was low at ~12% to lockdown-led challenges in Q1FY22 150 131 1,400 50 46 80 125 114 34 42 60 22 19 100 1,350 10 20 40 75 20 50 0 5 14 6 14 1,300 25 10 4 12 4 12 1,380 -20 0 1,354 1,264 1,360 1,325 1,335 -40 -25 -3 0 -2 1,250 1,314 -18-20 1,283 -60 -50 1,249 -80 -75 -90 -60-61 1,200 -100 Q2FY20 Q1FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q4FY21 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q1FY22 YoY sales growth SSSG, % Domino's India stores (LHS) Net stores opened (RHS) Source: Company, Emkay Research Source: Company, Emkay Research Exhibit 3: Gross margins remained elevated YoY Exhibit 4: Domino’s entered 5 new cities in Q1FY22 298 90 75.5 75.3 74.9 74.4 78.0 78.8 78.3 77.5 77.2 40 300 293 75 35 295 30 288 60 25 290 285 45 26.7 26.4 20 285 282 282 281 23.3 23.8 23.9 24.3 24.1 30 15 280 276 276 18.9 10 15 275 6.3 5 0 0 270 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Gross margin (%), LHS EBITDA margins (%), RHS Number of cities (Domino's India) Source: Company, Emkay Research Source: Company, Emkay Research Exhibit 5: Healthy improvement continued in own app downloads Exhibit 6: JUBI’s 1-Yr fwd PE chart 99 99 98 98 99 60 100 4000 50 89 95 3500 87 80x 40 85 90 3000 30 81 64.1 85 2500 60x 51.2 57.3 20 37.5 43.8 80 2000 29.4 33.1 40x 10 21.6 25.3 75 1500 1000 0 70 20x 500 0 Q1FY22 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Jul-16 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 App downloads (mn)-RHS Online % of delivery-LHS Jul-10 Jan-18 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Mobile % of Online-LHS Source: Company, Emkay Research Source: Company, Emkay Research Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore. July 21, 2021 | 2 Jubilant FoodWorks (JUBI IN) India Equity Research | Result Update Exhibit 7: Recovery much stronger than the first lockdown Source: Company, Emkay Research Exhibit 8: Actual vs. Estimates (Q1FY22) Estimates % variation Rs mn Actual Comment Emkay Consensus Emkay Consensus Revenues 8,790 9,157 9,052 -4.0% -2.9% Revenues were slightly lower than our/street estimates EBITDA 2,115 1,899 1,910 11.4% 10.7% EBITDA margins were higher led by lower staff costs EBITDA Margin (%) 24.1% 20.7% 21.1% 332 296 APAT 626 583 588 7.2% 6.4% PAT was better than estimates, led by better margins Source: Company, Emkay Research mpany, Emkay Research Emkay Research is also available on www.emkayglobal.com and Bloomberg EMKAY<GO>. Please refer to the last page of the report on Restrictions on Distribution. In Singapore, this research report or research analyses may only be distributed to Institutional Investors, Expert Investors or Accredited Investors as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore.
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