Southern Idleb & Northern Hama Rapid Needs Assessment
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SOUTHERN IDLEB & NORTHERN HAMA RAPID NEEDS ASSESSMENT Round 5, May 2019 CONTEXT KEY FINDINGS Since it was last assessed in February 2019, the area of southern Idleb and Total number of communities assessed:* 85 northern Hama governorates has seen a renewed escalation of conflict. Total estimated population (IDPs6 and residents7): 620,000 Beginning in the last week of April 2019, shelling and airstrikes have intensified in the area, preventing access to essential services and endangering the Insecurity was reported to have significantly affected people in the assessed safety of those living in the area.1 This factsheet, presenting findings from the area in the week prior to the assessment. Aerial bombardments and ground- fifth rapid needs assessment (RNA) in this area since August 2018, provides based conflict had already displaced an estimated 180,000 people from 29 April 8 an update on demographics, needs, and movement intentions following a to 9 May, and up to 270,000 more people are anticipated by Key Informants previous RNA in February 2019 to inform the rapid humanitarian response. (KIs) to be displaced in the two weeks following the assessment. 37 assessed communities were found to be empty or abandoned, likely as a direct result The latest conflict escalation affects a larger area than the area affected of conflict. Safety and security concerns have severely restricted freedom of during the previous conflict escalation in February. Renewed clashes have movement and damage to infrastructure has prevented people from accessing taken place in a region that is home to an estimated 620,000 IDPs and essential services and facilities. The limited access reported even before the residents,2 increasing vulnerability, and in many cases, leading to secondary recent escalation of conflict9 coupled with the frequency of escalations and and tertiary displacements. Since September 2018, there has been increasing limited time for recovery means that already vulnerable populations face concern regarding a potential military offensive on the region, with shelling and increased vulnerability. While the same trends were found in previous RNAs, the airstrikes occurring with increased frequency.3 Despite the mid-September current situation in the area is the most intense and widespread since August announcement of a demilitarised zone, which temporarily put a pause on 2018 and is likely to have long-term consequences for the region. 4 concerns over such an offensive, clashes have continued unabated. Due to Insecurity has resulted in people in the area not being able to access medical the intensity of the current conflict escalation and the seizure of previously assistance, schools and hospitals being destroyed, and households not being opposition-held communities in Madiq Castle sub-district in the first weeks of able to purchase sufficient food. Further compounding the situation, the May, many observers speculate that currently-ongoing clashes are now the 5 security context has meant that many humanitarian actors have been unable to beginning of the long-anticipated offensive. provide life-saving assistance, as humanitarian workers have themselves been displaced or are unable to access critical communities, further exacerbating the high needs in the area.10 METHODOLOGY Continuous data monitoring this region is available from REACH.** This The assessment used a KI methodology where between 2 and 8 KIs were assessment follows a multi-sectoral needs assessment, conducted in interviewed in each community. KIs were interviewed individually according communities in all of Idleb and surrounding areas in August 2018 as a baseline to their area of expertise, with different KIs interviewed for different sectors. on humanitarian needs in, and RNAs following episodes of escaleted conflict Findings have been triangulated using secondary data sources. in September 2018, December 2018 and February 2019. LIMITATIONS To provide timely updates on the humanitarian situation in this volatile security context, REACH conducted an RNA in conflict-affected areas of northern Due to the KI methodology used, findings are not statistically representative Hama and southern Idleb governorates. Data for this assessment was and should only be considered as indicative of the situation. This information collected from 9 to 12 May 2019 in 122 opposition-controlled communities* in pertains only to people in the communities that were assessed. Therefore, 13 sub-districts via community-level KI interviews. KIs were asked to report on findings cannot be considered as indicative of the situation in non-assessed the previous week (1 to 8 May). communities in the area. ASSESSED COVERAGE AREA 122 communities assessed IS Security Incidents anudiyeh Idleb Badama arbah 25 April to 7 May 2019 M4 Tall d-daman Saraqab Sparse Mhambal isr-Ash-Shugur Ariha Abul Thohur Kansaba Maarrat Dense Ehsem iyara An Numan Assessed community Salanfa Assessed mpty community M5 Area of influence Sourced from Live UA Map Sanar Kafr Nobol Shat-ha Heish 12 May, 2019 2 March, 2019 TRKEY Tamanaah IA Madi Castle R PS Y U F S Khan Shaykun O O GR T N N IO ME Kafr SIT RN As-Suqaylabiyah PO VE Hamra eita OP GO Suran Damascus Tell Salhib IRAQ Muhradah Hama As-Salamiyeh Saboura RDAN * While 122 communities were assessed, 37 were found to be empty or abandoned. This factsheet presents findings for only those 85 assessed communities where people were residing. ** The assessed area and some indicators differ slightly across RNAs, but general comparisons can be made. ☶ W Demographics Total estimated IDP population in assessed 140,000 Total estimated resident population in assessed 480,000 communities:2 communities:2 Estimated proportion of IDPs in assessed communities by age and Estimated proportion of residents in assessed communities by age 2 2 gender: 8+34+23+26 and gender: 7+36+33+24 60+ years 8% 60+ years 7% \ 45% 46% 18 to 59 years 34% \ 18 to 59 years 36% 6 to 17 years 32% 6 to 17 years 33% 55% 54% ^ 0 to 5 years 26% ^ 0 to 5 years 24% K Movement Intentions An estimated 180,000 people have been displaced from southern Idleb and Most common last sub-districts of arrival and departure for people 8 northern Hama as a result of the conflict escalation between 29 April and 9 displaced from the assessed area between 29 April and 9 May May.8 This wave of displacement has meant that many people living in the area, particularly IDPs, are facing displacement for a second or third time, increasing their vulnerability and depleting resources. REACH field teams reported that ourqeena Dana TRKEY people have been leaving the assessed area in large groups, in many cases Harim taking household items and livestock with them in anticipation of not returning Salqin Kafr for some time. Dana sub-district has been the most common destination Takharim A L E P P O for displaced people, a trend that continues from a previous assessment of Maaret Armanaz Teftnaz movement intentions conducted by REACH in August last year.11 However, Darkosh Tamsrin IDP camps in Dana have reportedly begun to reach capacity, forcing many Bennsh anudiyeh Idleb displaced people to seek shelter under trees. The large influx of population in Sarmin Dana will likely strain resources in the coming weeks. In addition, hundreds of Mhambal Saraqab IDPs are now scattered across northwest Syria in areas where the response Badamisr-Ash-Shugua r Ariha IDLEB Abul Thohur may not be able to reach, further worsening the humanitarian situation. hsem Displacement is expected to continue, with KIs reporting that between iyara Maarrat 99,000 and 200,000 residents (24 to 48 percent) and between 41,000 and An uman 73,000 IDPs (31 to 55 percent) could leave assessed communities in the two Kafr obol 12 Heish weeks following the assessment. The total displacement from this conflict H A M A Madiq escalation is already higher than during the previous episode in February, Castle Khan when an estimated 120,000 people were displaced.13 The high number of Shaykun residents expected to be displaced adds to an already large and vulnerable IDP population in northwest Syria. The most reported intended destination Most common sub-districts of departure Maor displacements (4,000 IDPs) was outside Syria, which is evidenced by data showing that some displaced ( 11,000 IDP arrivals from sub-district) 8 people are moving towards border areas in Aleppo governorate. Although utward displacement Inward and utward outside Syria may be the preferred destination, it is not necessarily feasible for a majority of those displaced. It should be noted that these reports are based on predictions from KIs and could change in the coming days and weeks. Top 3 most reported reasons to leave assessed communities for Top 3 most reported reasons to remain in assessed communities IDPs and residents (by % of communities where reported):14,15 for IDPs and residents (by % of communities where reported):14,15 IDPs Residents IDPs Residents Anticipation of conflict (80%) 1 Anticipation of conflict (85%) Lack of money (72%) 1 Protect assets (74%) Aerial bombardments (67%) 2 Aerial bombardments (79%) Ties to host community (32%) 2 Lack of money (48%) Ground-based conflict (53%) 3 Ground-based conflict (64%) Perceived relative safety (22%) 3 Desire to remain home (48%) Anticipation of conflict and aerial bombardments were the top reasons why A lack of money to pay for movement was reported as a reason that both both IDPs and residents were expected to be displaced in the two weeks residents and IDPs wish to remain in assessed communities, a trend that following the assessment. Conflict escalations have been reported as continues from past RNAs. According to REACH field teams, moving from triggers for large numbers of people to be displaced from this area since the assessed area to sub-districts in the north costs between $50 and $100 August 2018.16 Continued escalation of conflict will likely lead to a significant USD, a difficult price to pay in a region where the majority of households increase in the IDP population in northwest Syria as residents are displaced.