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Endless Cold: a Seasonal Reconstruction of Temperature and Precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries During the 15Th Century Based on Documentary Evidence

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Endless Cold: a Seasonal Reconstruction of Temperature and Precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries During the 15Th Century Based on Documentary Evidence View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Bern Open Repository and Information System (BORIS) Clim. Past, 11, 1049–1066, 2015 www.clim-past.net/11/1049/2015/ doi:10.5194/cp-11-1049-2015 © Author(s) 2015. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century based on documentary evidence C. Camenisch1,2 1Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland 2Institute of History, Department of Economic, Social and Environmental History (WSU), University of Bern, Länggassstrasse 49, 3012 Bern, Switzerland Correspondence to: C. Camenisch ([email protected]) Received: 29 January 2015 – Published in Clim. Past Discuss.: 17 March 2015 Revised: 8 June 2015 – Accepted: 22 July 2015 – Published: 20 August 2015 Abstract. This paper applies the methods of historical cli- including a variety of weather-related information, can be matology to present a climate reconstruction for the area of found in documentary sources produced in the Late Middle the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century. The Ages (AD 1300–1500). This information consists of direct results are based on documentary evidence that has been han- data (descriptions of temperatures and precipitation) and/or dled very carefully, especially with regard to the distinction indirect data (climate proxies – phenomena which are related between contemporary and non-contemporary sources. Ap- to climate such as the freezing of water bodies or plant phe- proximately 3000 written records derived from about 100 nology). Nonetheless, they are far from being continuous or different sources were examined and converted into seasonal homogeneous. Moreover, they are not quantitative (Pfister et seven-degree indices for temperature and precipitation. For al., 2009). the Late Middle Ages only a few climate reconstructions As this paper demonstrates, there are methods that facili- exist. There are even fewer reconstructions which include tate the transformation of this varied information into a reli- | downloaded: 13.3.2017 spring and autumn temperature or any precipitation informa- able climate reconstruction based on quantitative series. The tion at all. This paper therefore constitutes a useful contri- presented paper aims to give an overview of weather condi- bution to the understanding of climate and weather condi- tions during the 15th century in the Burgundian Low Coun- tions in the less well researched but highly interesting 15th tries and surrounding areas at seasonal resolution with sep- century. The extremely cold winter temperatures during the arately reconstructed temperature and precipitation. Leading 1430s and an extremely cold winter in 1407/1408 are strik- questions are as follows: (1) what were the characteristics ing. Moreover, no other year in this century was as hot and of these weather conditions? (2) what are the advantages dry as 1473. At the beginning and the end of the 1480s and at of using documentary data and what are the limits of these the beginning of the 1490s summers were considerably wet- sources? Selected examples give deeper insight into the char- ter than average. acteristics of the sources and the applied methods in order to analyse them and convert them into homogeneous tempera- ture and precipitation index series. The climate reconstruc- 1 Introduction tion not only provides an overview of the prevailing weather conditions of the whole century but presents detailed results. Le Roy Ladurie, one of the pioneers of historical climatol- Since the source density in most cases is high enough, it is ogy, stated the necessity for a quantitative, continuous and possible to detect not only anomalies but also less extreme https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.72116 homogeneous series in order to reconstruct climate on the weather conditions. This is unusual because most reconstruc- basis of historical documents for the time prior to instrumen- tions based on this type of data focus on extreme weather tal records (1972). A true treasure of rich narrative texts, source: Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 1050 C. Camenisch: Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation events. Moreover, many climate reconstructions are limited as well. Further important contributions on the medieval cli- to temperature. As the inclusion of precipitation in recon- mate in the Low Countries were published by, e.g. Gottschalk structions is crucial in order to obtain a more complete pic- (1975) and de Kraker (2005, 2013). In addition there are use- ture of past climates, this is a substantial gain in knowledge ful climate reconstructions focused on regions in the neigh- (Pfister, 2014). The inclusion of normal weather conditions bourhood of the Low Countries such as Germany (Glaser, (apart from extreme events) and precipitation is a precondi- 2013), Switzerland (Schwarz-Zanetti, 1998) France (Le Roy tion for a comparison of climate and weather conditions with Ladurie, 2004), the current region of Lorraine (Litzenburger, human society. Such a comparison is a further aim of histor- 2015) and Ireland and Britain (Kington, 2010) that are based ical climatology and will be realised in future research. either on similar source types or on similar methods. The use of documentary evidence for examining past cli- Section 2 gives a short overview of the geographical scope mate has a long tradition. Many catalogues with compilations of the research. In the Sect. 3 the data which form the ba- of weather-related records exist (e.g. Hennig, 1904; Weikinn, sis of this reconstruction are presented and discussed. Some 1958; Britton, 1937). These catalogues do not contain any source examples complete this section. Section 4 is dedicated critical source assessment and contain mistakes in dating. to the methods. Section 5 covers reconstructions and Sect. 6 Reconstructions on the basis of such compilations repeat the provides a summary before Sect. 7 concludes. dating errors. Some such catalogues cover the area of the Low Countries during the Late Middle Ages (e.g. Easton, 1928; Vanderlinden, 1924). 2 Scope In 1987, Alexandre established a benchmark for the re- construction of medieval climate using documentary sources. The 15th century forms part of the Little Ice Age and con- Apart from analysing sources throughout continental Europe, tains a number of highly interesting weather patterns and the author defined the necessity of a critical source assess- phenomena that warrant closer examination (Aberth, 2013; ment in order to improve the quality of such examinations. Brooke, 2014; Hoffmann, 2014). Moreover, this period is not Buisman (1995, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2006, 2015) collected an as well researched as it should be as the Alexandre (1987) enormous number of documentary sources concerning the reconstruction ends in 1425 and other reconstructions begin climate of the Low Countries. By 2015, six volumes with only after 1500 (e.g. Pfister, 1999). Dutch translations of weather-relevant records had appeared, The methods used in this paper require a sufficient num- covering the period from 1000 to 1800, and another three ber of data. For this reason the Burgundian Low Countries volumes are in preparation. have been chosen as the geographical setting. During the end For the present analysis, documentary information was of the 14th and through the course of the 15th century sev- transformed into climate indices. Early examples of the eral parts of present-day Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxem- method were published by Lamb (1977, 1982). The climate bourg and northern France fell under the rule or at least into indices were developed and improved by Pfister (1984, 1999) the sphere of influence of a cadet branch of the French royal and Brázdil and Kotyza (1995) and are a proven way to anal- dynasty (see Fig. 1). This house of Burgundy reigned for al- yse sources (e.g. Alexandre, 1987; Schwarz-Zanetti, 1998; most 100 years over the Burgundian Low Countries before Dobrovolný et al., 2010, 2014; Brázdil et al., 2013). the male line went extinct (Calmette, 1996; Schnerb, 1999). Van Engelen used the Buisman (1995, 1996, 1998, 2000) In 1477 when the last of the dukes of Burgundy, Charles the compilation as a basis for climate indices (Shabalova and Bold, died, his territory extended from the English Channel van Engelen, 2003; van Engelen et al., 2001). The ambitious in the west to the Ardennes in the east, and in the north from goal of this Dutch reconstruction was to provide long series the West Frisian Islands to the Duchy of Luxembourg in the with (almost) no gaps. Van Engelen fulfilled this promise by south (Blockmans and Prevenier, 1999; Prevenier and Block- choosing a nine-degree scale for the temperature indices and mans, 1986). a five-degree scale for the precipitation indices. The tempera- The topography of the inshore area is particularly flat and ture reconstruction is comprised of a winter index (NDJFM) the land largely lies below sea level. Only in the east do and a summer index (MJJAS). the hills of the Ardennes contrast with the otherwise flat to- The aim of the present paper is different. First of all, in- pography. Weathering processes triggered by storm surges, dices with a higher resolution were necessary because a com- ocean waves and currents have formed and continue to form parison with economic development is intended, and for that the shoreline today (de Voogd, 2003; Reuss, 2006; Buisman, purpose reconstruction at least on the seasonal scale is indis- 2011). Large rivers such as the Rhine, Scheldt, Meuse and pensable (Camenisch, 2015; Pfister, 2014). Furthermore, it IJssel cut through the plains before flowing into the North was mandatory to read the original texts since it is not pos- Sea. The area belongs to the most fertile agricultural land- sible to produce a reliable reconstruction with summarised scapes of Europe thanks to the soil conditions, cultivation of and translated excerpts of very diverse sources.
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