Endless Cold: a Seasonal Reconstruction of Temperature and Precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries During the 15Th Century Based on Documentary Evidence

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Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation in the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century based on documentary evidence

C. Camenisch1,2 1Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland 2Institute of History, Department of Economic, Social and Environmental History (WSU), University of Bern, Länggassstrasse 49, 3012 Bern, Switzerland

Correspondence to: C. Camenisch ([email protected])

Received: 29 January 2015 – Published in Clim. Past Discuss.: 17 March 2015 Revised: 8 June 2015 – Accepted: 22 July 2015 – Published: 20 August 2015

Abstract. This paper applies the methods of historical cli- including a variety of weather-related information, can be matology to present a climate reconstruction for the area of found in documentary sources produced in the Late Middle the Burgundian Low Countries during the 15th century. The Ages (AD 1300–1500). This information consists of direct results are based on documentary evidence that has been han- data (descriptions of temperatures and precipitation) and/or dled very carefully, especially with regard to the distinction indirect data (climate proxies – phenomena which are related between contemporary and non-contemporary sources. Ap- to climate such as the freezing of water bodies or plant phe- proximately 3000 written records derived from about 100 nology). Nonetheless, they are far from being continuous or different sources were examined and converted into seasonal homogeneous. Moreover, they are not quantitative (Pﬁster et seven-degree indices for temperature and precipitation. For al., 2009). the Late Middle Ages only a few climate reconstructions As this paper demonstrates, there are methods that facili- exist. There are even fewer reconstructions which include tate the transformation of this varied information into a reli-

| downloaded: 13.3.2017 spring and autumn temperature or any precipitation informa- able climate reconstruction based on quantitative series. The tion at all. This paper therefore constitutes a useful contri- presented paper aims to give an overview of weather condi- bution to the understanding of climate and weather conditions during the 15th century in the Burgundian Low Coun- tions in the less well researched but highly interesting 15th tries and surrounding areas at seasonal resolution with sep- century. The extremely cold winter temperatures during the arately reconstructed temperature and precipitation. Leading 1430s and an extremely cold winter in 1407/1408 are strik- questions are as follows: (1) what were the characteristics ing. Moreover, no other year in this century was as hot and of these weather conditions? (2) what are the advantages dry as 1473. At the beginning and the end of the 1480s and at of using documentary data and what are the limits of these the beginning of the 1490s summers were considerably wet- sources? Selected examples give deeper insight into the char- ter than average. acteristics of the sources and the applied methods in order to analyse them and convert them into homogeneous temperature and precipitation index series. The climate reconstruc- 1 Introduction tion not only provides an overview of the prevailing weather conditions of the whole century but presents detailed results. Le Roy Ladurie, one of the pioneers of historical climatol- Since the source density in most cases is high enough, it is ogy, stated the necessity for a quantitative, continuous and possible to detect not only anomalies but also less extreme https://doi.org/10.7892/boris.72116 homogeneous series in order to reconstruct climate on the weather conditions. This is unusual because most reconstruc- basis of historical documents for the time prior to instrumen- tions based on this type of data focus on extreme weather tal records (1972). A true treasure of rich narrative texts, source: Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 1050 C. Camenisch: Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation events. Moreover, many climate reconstructions are limited as well. Further important contributions on the medieval cli- to temperature. As the inclusion of precipitation in recon- mate in the Low Countries were published by, e.g. Gottschalk structions is crucial in order to obtain a more complete pic- (1975) and de Kraker (2005, 2013). In addition there are use- ture of past climates, this is a substantial gain in knowledge ful climate reconstructions focused on regions in the neigh- (Pfister, 2014). The inclusion of normal weather conditions bourhood of the Low Countries such as Germany (Glaser, (apart from extreme events) and precipitation is a precondi- 2013), Switzerland (Schwarz-Zanetti, 1998) France (Le Roy tion for a comparison of climate and weather conditions with Ladurie, 2004), the current region of Lorraine (Litzenburger, human society. Such a comparison is a further aim of histor- 2015) and Ireland and Britain (Kington, 2010) that are based ical climatology and will be realised in future research. either on similar source types or on similar methods. The use of documentary evidence for examining past cli- Section 2 gives a short overview of the geographical scope mate has a long tradition. Many catalogues with compilations of the research. In the Sect. 3 the data which form the ba- of weather-related records exist (e.g. Hennig, 1904; Weikinn, sis of this reconstruction are presented and discussed. Some 1958; Britton, 1937). These catalogues do not contain any source examples complete this section. Section 4 is dedicated critical source assessment and contain mistakes in dating. to the methods. Section 5 covers reconstructions and Sect. 6 Reconstructions on the basis of such compilations repeat the provides a summary before Sect. 7 concludes. dating errors. Some such catalogues cover the area of the Low Countries during the Late Middle Ages (e.g. Easton, 1928; Vanderlinden, 1924). 2 Scope In 1987, Alexandre established a benchmark for the reconstruction of medieval climate using documentary sources. The 15th century forms part of the Little Ice Age and con- Apart from analysing sources throughout continental Europe, tains a number of highly interesting weather patterns and the author defined the necessity of a critical source assess- phenomena that warrant closer examination (Aberth, 2013; ment in order to improve the quality of such examinations. Brooke, 2014; Hoffmann, 2014). Moreover, this period is not Buisman (1995, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2006, 2015) collected an as well researched as it should be as the Alexandre (1987) enormous number of documentary sources concerning the reconstruction ends in 1425 and other reconstructions begin climate of the Low Countries. By 2015, six volumes with only after 1500 (e.g. Pfister, 1999). Dutch translations of weather-relevant records had appeared, The methods used in this paper require a sufficient num- covering the period from 1000 to 1800, and another three ber of data. For this reason the Burgundian Low Countries volumes are in preparation. have been chosen as the geographical setting. During the end For the present analysis, documentary information was of the 14th and through the course of the 15th century sev- transformed into climate indices. Early examples of the eral parts of present-day Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxem- method were published by Lamb (1977, 1982). The climate bourg and northern France fell under the rule or at least into indices were developed and improved by Pfister (1984, 1999) the sphere of influence of a cadet branch of the French royal and Brázdil and Kotyza (1995) and are a proven way to anal- dynasty (see Fig. 1). This house of Burgundy reigned for al- yse sources (e.g. Alexandre, 1987; Schwarz-Zanetti, 1998; most 100 years over the Burgundian Low Countries before Dobrovolný et al., 2010, 2014; Brázdil et al., 2013). the male line went extinct (Calmette, 1996; Schnerb, 1999). Van Engelen used the Buisman (1995, 1996, 1998, 2000) In 1477 when the last of the dukes of Burgundy, Charles the compilation as a basis for climate indices (Shabalova and Bold, died, his territory extended from the English Channel van Engelen, 2003; van Engelen et al., 2001). The ambitious in the west to the Ardennes in the east, and in the north from goal of this Dutch reconstruction was to provide long series the West Frisian Islands to the Duchy of Luxembourg in the with (almost) no gaps. Van Engelen fulfilled this promise by south (Blockmans and Prevenier, 1999; Prevenier and Block- choosing a nine-degree scale for the temperature indices and mans, 1986). a five-degree scale for the precipitation indices. The tempera- The topography of the inshore area is particularly flat and ture reconstruction is comprised of a winter index (NDJFM) the land largely lies below sea level. Only in the east do and a summer index (MJJAS). the hills of the Ardennes contrast with the otherwise flat to- The aim of the present paper is different. First of all, in- pography. Weathering processes triggered by storm surges, dices with a higher resolution were necessary because a com- ocean waves and currents have formed and continue to form parison with economic development is intended, and for that the shoreline today (de Voogd, 2003; Reuss, 2006; Buisman, purpose reconstruction at least on the seasonal scale is indis- 2011). Large rivers such as the Rhine, Scheldt, Meuse and pensable (Camenisch, 2015; Pfister, 2014). Furthermore, it IJssel cut through the plains before flowing into the North was mandatory to read the original texts since it is not pos- Sea. The area belongs to the most fertile agricultural land- sible to produce a reliable reconstruction with summarised scapes of Europe thanks to the soil conditions, cultivation of and translated excerpts of very diverse sources. The high- land and soil improvement. Consequently, a remarkable level quality source compilations of Alexandre (1987) and Buis- of agricultural productivity and the proximity to waterways – man (1995, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2006, 2015) were consulted the fastest and most efficient transportation routes of the time

Clim. Past, 11, 1049–1066, 2015 www.clim-past.net/11/1049/2015/ C. Camenisch: Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation 1051

Figure 1. The Burgundian Low Countries (map from Marco Zanoli).

– created an extraordinarily dense population (Erbe, 1993; 1999). Documentary evidence allows precise dating with a Allen, 2000; Prevenier and Blockmans, 1986). The urbanisa- very high resolution. There are annual, seasonal, monthly tion level of the Burgundian Low Countries was exceptional. or even daily observations depending on the type of infor- Extraordinarily populous cities were situated in Flanders, Ar- mation. Early instrumental measurement did not begin until tois, Brabant and Holland (van Bavel, 2010). This prosperous the 17th century and is therefore not available for the Late area was famous for its artistic production. Furthermore, a Middle Ages (Behringer, 2010). Instead, other direct and in- rich historiography and accurate and elaborate records exist direct data provide information on climate. Direct data are which form the basis of this research. descriptive records on weather spells, climatic anomalies or weather-induced disasters. Indirect data or proxy data are comprised of records of both organic and non-organic evi- 3 Sources dence that allow inferences regarding temperature and precipitation such as plant phenology (e.g. date of blooming or 3.1 Classification ripening of grapevine or ice phenology (e.g. date of freez- In order to reconstruct temperature and precipitation several ing or melting of water bodies) (Pfister, 1999; Pfister et al., methods based on a variety of data are required. Besides 1999). the rich natural archives consisting of organic proxies (such A short text, part of a chronicle written by the Bene- as tree rings) and non-organic proxies (including ice cores, dictine monk Jean de Stavelot, a contemporary eye witness varves and terrestrial sediments), man-made archives are also from Liège contains both direct and indirect data1. The au- useful. Those archives contain documentary data and are the basis of climate reconstructions derived from historical cli- 1Item, en chi temporaile [...] fist si fort yviert et grant galée que matology (Brázdil et al., 2005; Pfister, 1999; Pfister et al., la riviere de Mouze tresserat, et que de Jemeppe à Liege ons cherioit www.clim-past.net/11/1049/2015/ Clim. Past, 11, 1049–1066, 2015 1052 C. Camenisch: Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation

Table 1. Classiﬁcation of documentary sources (Pﬁster et al., 2009; Camenisch, 2015).

Institutional sources Individual sources Narrative sources – Annals – Chronicles – Memoirs – Journals – Letters – Weather diaries – Travel reports Administrative – Monastic records – Records of private households sources – Town records – Toll accounts – Charters thor gives not only an account of heavy frost in the winter behalf of town authorities or nobles, others for more private of 1407/1408 but describes in addition how the Meuse was purposes (Schmid, 2009, 2012). Those narrative texts were so firmly frozen between Jemeppe and Liège that chariots often written in a vernacular language. In the Burgundian loaded with grain and other foods were driven on the ice. Low Countries and the close neighbourhood, these languages This frost lasted for 10 weeks before the ice started to melt on were Middle Low German (e.g. Lamprecht et al., 1895; Car- 28 January 1408 (the date is given in the Julian calendar style dauns et al., 1877), Middle Dutch (e.g. Kuys et al., 1983; De and in the Gregorian calendar equates to 7 February 1408). Jonghe, 1840; Fris, 1904) and Middle French (e.g. Borgnet, Another distinction is made between institutional and indi- 1861; Tuetey, 1903) – each with local variations. vidual sources on the one hand and between narrative and ad- Usually, chronicles consist of a compilation of older texts ministrative sources on the other hand (see Table 1). The first followed by a second part composed by the chronicler and classification takes note of the origination process of the text covering their lifespan. This second – contemporary – part is and the second focuses on the text type and its use (Pfister et usually richer in information, more detailed and clearly more al., 2009; Camenisch, 2015). Both have a direct impact on the reliable. Some chroniclers summarise the crucial events year quality of the sources, as discussed subsequently. Especially by year, while others write their text many years after the concerning the Late Middle Ages, chronicles, memoirs, and events (Lambert, 1993; van Caenegem, 1997). In narrative journals constitute individual narrative sources, whereas an- texts, the authors often describe weather conditions and espe- nals belong to the group of narrative sources but have institu- cially extreme weather events because they could be a threat tional origins. The lines between the two groups are blurred to the food supply or they were given religious significance since many texts show characteristics of both types (Geary, (Ingram et al., 1981). 2013). Amongst the administrative sources, bookkeeping ac- The reasons why weather conditions or proxy data are counts and charters (documents for legal purposes) of dif- mentioned in administrative sources differ from those in nar- ferent origin are important to mention. In this paper, the first rative sources. The important source type of accounts is char- group was mainly used and charters did not play a major role. acterised by standardised records of costs and revenues. Ei- Also, administrative sources were generated either in an in- ther the climate proxies lead to costs or revenues and were stitutional setting such as in a monastery, town hall, and toll listed for that purpose in the accounts, or short descriptions of station or in a private individual setting (Camenisch, 2015). weather conditions appear as justification for extraordinary The 15th century is rich in narrative texts, mainly chron- costs (Wetter and Pfister, 2011; Pribyl et al., 2012). In this pa- icles, annals, memoirs and journals. In the Burgundian Low per, narrative sources clearly form the main body of the data Countries and the neighbouring regions a wealth of such set and were the main focus of analysis. In addition, a num- manuscripts has been preserved and many of them have been ber of edited town records (such as the De Stadsrekeningen published as edited books. The tradition of writing chronicles van Arnhem for the first decades of the 15th century, Jappe originates from antiquity and has survived for centuries in Alberts, 1967, 1969, 1971, 1978, 1985) and further unedited mostly a monastic or at least a clerical context (Rohr, 2007). town records relying on the Buisman (1996, 1998) compila- The language of these texts is normally Medieval Latin (e.g. tions have been included in the data set. Balau, 1913; Dussart, 1892). Additionally, in the Late Middle Ages, interested laypeople wrote chronicles, some of them on 3.2 Critical source assessment sus à charois bien chargiés de bleis ou d’aultres denrées; et durat A critical assessment for every source but also for each celle galée plus de X semaines. [...] et chu fut l’an XIIIIc et VIII, record is crucial for the quality of the entire reconstruc- le XXVIIIme jour de jenvier. (Borgnet, 1861) tion because the characteristics and quality of the sources

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The distribution of the sources also differs with regard to their place of origin, as Fig. 3 shows. Most of the used sources have their origin in the Burgundian Low Countries but a number of texts derive from neighbouring areas and were included in the data set because of their excellent quality.

3.4 Dating Confusion in dating is one of the most serious problems that Figure 2. Annual distribution of the sources (Camenisch, 2015). can arise in a reconstruction. The reasons are closely linked to the fact that different calendar styles were in use during the particular epoch. vary and they contain different types of information. Critical Before 1582 the Julian calendar style was in use in source assessment includes information on the author, espe- most Christian European countries. Since it is some minutes cially dates of birth and death, the place where they lived and longer than the astronomical year, the calendrical beginning the context of their oeuvre (Alexandre, 1987). This informa- of the seasons diverged from the astronomic year. For many tion allows a distinction to be drawn between original text centuries the difference was barely observable. During the and copies of older manuscripts and is extremely important 15th century the deviation of the then 9 days was not only because of the significantly greater reliability of the records perceptible to experts in astronomy but also to those paying in the original (contemporary) part of the source. The closer close attention (Schwarz-Zanetti, 1998; Borst, 2004; Grote- the events occurred in relation to the time when the authors fend, 1991). This means that in all texts, date indications de- wrote their texts on paper or parchment, the more reliable viate from the modern calendar style and need to be con- they are. The best quality is given in the case of year-by-year verted. reports. Records and journals and the final sections of an- Another problem is derived from the fact that during the nals and chronicles are usually produced in this way. If an Middle Ages six possible days for the beginning of the cal- event is convincingly proved by contemporary records, ad- endar year exist: 1 January, 1 March, 25 March, Easter, ditional non-contemporary reports can be taken into account 1 September and 25 December (Grotefend, 1991). The first insofar as they confirm the main claim of contemporary evi- of September is used rather seldom so one has to take care, dence. Since each source has its own particularities that be- especially concerning events occurring between Christmas come clear by reading the text as a whole, it would be a fatal and Easter. If one chronicle uses the Easter style and an- error just to pick the records from older or newer compila- other one uses the Christmas style, the same events could tions without critical source and context assessment. have been be written down as having occurred in two dif- For this paper approximately 3000 records from about 100 ferent years. A clear analysis of the correct dating of events sources were evaluated. Two-thirds of them are related to is indispensable, keeping in mind that the non-contemporary weather conditions, whereas the last third focuses on eco- part of a narrative text is a copy of an older text probably with nomic impacts caused by these weather conditions. Many of another calendar style. The authors of older weather compi- the records contain long descriptions. lations did not pay enough attention to these problems and even if they were aware of them, they usually did not give sufficient information on how they converted the dates. In 3.3 Source density this paper much effort was made to avoid such dating errors. The density of the sources is not equal throughout the entire A very useful way to crosscheck the reliability of the dat- century as Fig. 2 shows. Because of the different timespans ing of a certain narrative text is to search for records describ- of the sources not all decades have the same source density. ing solar and lunar eclipses or comet observations. Many au- In addition there is obviously more evidence in years with thors mention such observations because in medieval times exceptional events, whereas years with average weather con- they were seen as precursors to calamities (Rohr, 2013). The ditions were less documented, if they were described at all. descriptions which appear in the narrative sources can be This all depends on the quality of the sources covering the compared with catalogues of celestial events of the past (e.g. year in question and it is consequently the reason why years Kronk, 1999; Schroeter, 1923). without enough evidence cannot simply be interpreted as average (see Sect. 4). Within the calendar year the distribution of the records is almost equal in terms of winter (27 %), spring (25.5 %), and summer (29.5 %). In 18 % of the records only autumn is less documented (Camenisch, 2015). www.clim-past.net/11/1049/2015/ Clim. Past, 11, 1049–1066, 2015 1054 C. Camenisch: Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation

Figure 3. Geographical distribution of the origin of the sources.

Most of the medieval authors used ecclesiastical feast days Table 2. Scale of the climate indices (Pﬁster, 1999). in order to give precise dates within a year. Usually, this does not lead to problems. More challenging are descriptions that Temperature indices Index value Precipitation indices refer to seasons without more detail. In the past the mean- Extremely warm 3 Extremely wet ing of the seasons was ambiguous (and still is to a certain Very warm 2 Very wet degree). Medieval authors meant either astronomical seasons Warm 1 Wet that changed at equinoxes and solstices or they used the name Normal 0 Normal of the season to refer to the duration of typical weather pat- Cold −1 Dry terns, agricultural work or phenological phenomena preva- Very cold −2 Very dry lent in that season (Pﬁster, 1988; Ogilvie and Farmer, 1997; Extremely cold −3 Extremely dry Grotefend, 1991).

4 Methodology from 1 December until 28 February, spring the period from 1 March until 31 May, summer from 1 June until 31 August As argued above, continuous, homogeneous, and quantita- and autumn from 1 September until 30 November. tive series are required for climate reconstructions. Since sev- Table 2 shows the scale of all indices. The reconstruction eral source types with different features and varying quality is realised in several steps. At the beginning of the process form the basis of this paper, an adequate method that can the sources are sorted into groups according to the seasons to cope with these inhomogeneous data is required. Climate in- which they refer. Preliminary analysis of the sources shows dices (so-called Pfister indices, Mauelshagen, 2010) offer a which kind of descriptions recur and how they can be evalu- solution that enables the integration of all source types into ated on a seven-degree scale. Fundamental knowledge about one reconstruction. Pfister (1999) chose a scale of seven de- the perception and interpretation of natural phenomena is in- grees because fewer degrees would not be detailed enough, dispensable to avoid misinterpretations (Rohr, 2007; Weg- whereas a more extended scale would in most cases lead to mann, 2005). numerous gaps. There are separate indices for temperature and precipitation. Because of the remarkable source density 4.1 Index criteria in the late-medieval Burgundian Low Countries a seasonal resolution is adequate. This means the entire climate recon- Specific criteria for each season and degree are defined and struction is comprised of eight different indices. The mete- as many years as possible are given a value on the scale by orological year forms the basis of the seasonal subdivision a comparative interpretation of all data (Mauelshagen, 2010; of the indices. Therefore the winter season covers the period Pfister, 1999). Since initial analysis probably causes a rather

Clim. Past, 11, 1049–1066, 2015 www.clim-past.net/11/1049/2015/ C. Camenisch: Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation 1055

Table 3. Reﬁned scale of the winter temperature index (Camenisch, 2015).

Index value Description Criteria 3 Extremely mild no frost or extremely few frost periods mentioned considerable phenological anomalies winter described as extremely mild 2 Very mild almost no frost periods mentioned remarkable phenological anomalies winter described as mild 1 Mild more rain than snow little frost mentioned 0 Normal few frosts sporadic days with drifting ice −1 Cold repeated periods with drifting ice repeated frost periods −2 Very cold small rivers or brooks frozen frost mentioned over a period of about 1 month plants damaged by frost −3 Extremely cold large rivers and lakes frozen and passable frost mentioned over a period of about 2 months rye or trees damaged by frost unequal distribution of the seasons, the criteria need to be re- peratures, ice phenology cannot be taken into consideration. fined and the process of source analysis started again. The re- To a certain extent, plant phenology can offer valuables clues, fined criteria form the basis of the final reconstruction. How- but since there is no regular source of information on the ever, the authors’ preference for describing extreme events same plants this method also has its limitations. in the sources leads to a certain overrepresentation of those The analysis of winter precipitation before instrumental index values in the reconstruction. measurement records is challenging. The reason for this is Table 3 shows as an example the basic structure of the in- that in the winter season precipitation often occurs as snow- dices in the first row and the refined criteria for the recon- fall. It is extremely difficult to deduce the water content of struction of the winter temperatures in the second row. The snowfall only from descriptions. A further peculiarity of the criteria include measurable or at least comparable physical contemporary descriptions is that in many cases the chroni- and biological proxies (Pfister, 1999). Concerning the win- clers do not clearly distinguish between the duration of snow- ter temperatures, this means for instance that in order to be fall and the timespan during which the snow cover did not assigned a value of -3 in the reconstruction, records on the melt, resulting in misinterpretations. In addition, floods are freezing of large water bodies such as the Rhine, Scheldt, and no clear indicator of the amount of precipitation because sev- Meuse or even the shores of the North Sea are required. This eral causes exist and some of them, like ice jams and sudden information does not indicate absolute temperatures since snow melting, are linked to temperature (Wetter et al., 2011; those water bodies freeze after the temperature sinks below a Kiss, 2009). The chroniclers pay less attention to dryness and certain threshold, and it is not possible to determine the tem- drought in winter. These are the reason why the winter pre- peratures beneath that threshold (Pfister, 1999; Glaser, 2013). cipitation index is less dense than the winter temperature in- Similar are descriptions of frost damage to trees and winter dex. crops. Only temperatures lower than −30 ◦C lead to bursting Concerning the climatic conditions during springtime, banks or the freezing of winter rye in the fields (Schubert, anomalies and extreme events are again overrepresented in 2006). the sources when compared with records of average condi- More difficulties arise in reconstructing average or mild tions (see Fig. 5). In order to attribute a season the index winter temperatures. For instance, the appearance of drifting value of −3, it is necessary to have contemporary records ice is not comparable to present-day conditions because of of long frost periods or even frozen water bodies that last extensive changes in the river beds, the increasing inflow of until springtime. Considerable deviations of plant phenology wastewater and the construction of canals. For milder tem- are also required. Some authors of narrative texts provide re-

www.clim-past.net/11/1049/2015/ Clim. Past, 11, 1049–1066, 2015 1056 C. Camenisch: Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation current information on the beginning of the growing season, 5 Reconstruction which is very useful for the reconstruction of all degrees of the index scale. The climate reconstruction is comprised of four indices for Within the dataset no spring season can be assumed to be each season concerning temperature and four indices con- extremely wet (index value of −3). This is because in many cerning precipitation. The number of gaps in the indices cases only part of the spring season is described. For sev- varies and depends on the source density and the clear clas- eral years there is information on a given wet month but no sification of the criteria defined for every index. information on the other two months so these years cannot definitively be allotted an extreme index value. 5.1 Winter The refined criteria of the summer temperature reconstruction are related mostly to plant phenology. In particular, in- The temperature index for the winter season is the most com- formation on the growing of grapevines, grains or vegetables plete of the reconstruction (see Fig. 4). Extremely cold (in- − − appears repeatedly in the texts and is very useful. Consider- dex value 3) and very cold (index value 2) temperatures able deviations in the average phenology of those plants are are very well documented. The descriptions of many of these necessary to obtain an index value of +3, +2, −2 or −3. winters are rich and numerous. The winter of 1407/1408 for In order to allocate a summer season the index value of −1, instance was one of the coldest in the century and the best 0 or +1 descriptions without phenological deviations were documented season in the whole data set. Many chroniclers sufficient. emphasised that no one could remember a winter like this. For the reconstruction of summer precipitation the refined Jean Brandon, a monk at Ten Duinen Abbey on the Flemish criteria are mostly linked to descriptions of damage caused coast, described this winter as dry and cold. Such low temper- by either dry or wet anomalies. Since a sufficient but not ex- atures and chilly frost had not occurred for 100 years prior, as the Flemish monk affirms in his text (Kervyn de Lettenhove, cessive amount of precipitation during summer is crucial for 2 the harvest in the Low Countries, the medieval chroniclers 1870) . paid it much attention. This is also the reason why the sum- Thanks to the excellent source density, different phases mer season is the best documented of the precipitation recon- of cold can be identified in the weather conditions of these structions. A certain problem arises from the fact that me- months. Around the feast of Saint Martin on 11 November dieval authors often do not clearly distinguish between heat 1407 (20 November converted into Gregorian calendar style) and drought, and the terms are used synonymously. the sink in temperatures was widespread, as is reported in The autumn reconstruction contains the most extended texts from Liège, Paris, Cologne, Lübeck, Magdeburg and gaps (see Fig. 7). The sources are silent, especially on the Dortmund (Camenisch, 2015). Another cold front reached time after the grapevine harvest and the sowing of winter the Burgundian Low Countries some days after the begin- crops in September and October. This is the reason why in- ning of December (Gregorian calendar style – all following formation on this season often remains fragmentary and why data are converted into this style). Several water bodies froze it is very difficult to determine seasons that can be allocated after Christmas, such as the Seine, the Rhine and the Meuse the index values +3 and −3. In the autumn reconstruction with its tributary stream, the Sambre. The ice cover was thick the precipitation index is denser than the temperature index enough for people to ride horses on it and drive loaded chari- because the sowing of winter crops was more vulnerable to ots from one river bank to the other (Camenisch, 2015). Fur- precipitation than to temperature. ther away, Lake Zurich and Lake Constance were also frozen Generally, gaps originating from a lack of sources cannot (Brunner, 2004). be ascribed an “average” value for several reasons. Usually At the end of January a few days with milder temperatures more than one record indicating the same tendency in the led to the breakup of ice cover on the rivers (around 6 January weather conditions is necessary in order to assign an index in Paris, for example). The drifting ice jammed the rivers in value. If there is contradictory information, the contempo- Paris and Liège, flooding the river banks. According to most rary records are decisive. There are few cases when no con- chroniclers the frost ended around the beginning of February. temporary records are available at all or some are plausible The winter crops perished in Flanders because of the frost individually but contradictory as a whole. In such cases an (and the lack of protective snow cover). In Paris, vineyards index value was not set. This procedure leads to a more reli- and fruit trees were damaged by the same frost. Moreover, able reconstruction. people, cattle and birds fell victim to the extremely low tem- Since the data are inhomogeneous and no proxy would peratures. − + appear continuously for the whole century, there is no pos- For more average winters (index values of 1, 0 or 1) sibility of calibrating them with temperature or precipitation fewer sources exist. During the 15th century, three clusters measurement of later times. After 1500, approaches to cal- of very cold and extremely cold winters can be detected. ibrate and verify indices with temperature and precipitation 21407 [...] Hoc anno [...] hyemps sicca et frigida, ita ut gelu measurements exist (Dobrovolný et al., 2010, 2014). asperum esset a principio decembris usque in finem januarii, ut a C annis tantum frigus et tantum gelu non fuerit.

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4 Winter

0 1400 1402 1404 1406 1408 1410 1412 1414 1416 1418 1420 1422 1424 1426 1428 1430 1432 1434 1436 1438 1440 1442 1444 1446 1448 1450 1452 1454 1456 1458 1460 1462 1464 1466 1468 1470 1472 1474 1476 1478 1480 1482 1484 1486 1488 1490 1492 1494 1496 1498

-1

-2

-3

-4

Temperature Precipitation

Figure 4. Winter indices.

4 Summer

-1

-2

-3

-4

Temperature Precipitation

Figure 5. Spring indices.

The clusters during the 1420s and during the 1460s are re- of the middle of the century, especially the 1440s and 1450s markable but that of the 1430s is especially exceptional. This because of the lack of contemporary sources. decade is one of the coldest of the whole millennium if not Concerning precipitation, medieval records are rather the very coldest (Lamb, 1982). In contrast are the extremely silent in the ﬁrst years of the century. As a consequence there or very mild winters of the ﬁrst half of the 1470s and the be- is a remarkable gap in the reconstruction from 1410 to 1417. ginning of the 1480s. Less is known about the winter seasons In addition, the second half of the 1430s, the last years of the

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1440s and the 1450s in general are difficult to assess for the 5.4 Autumn same reasons. Only one extremely dry (1447/1448) and a few very dry The indices for autumn temperatures and precipitation are winter seasons could be identified during the 15th cen- the least dense in the climate reconstruction. Fewer seasons tury. Three years with extremely wet seasons are known are found at either end of the scale because in many cases (1414/1415, 1484/1485, 1496/1497). Accumulations of very there is only information on part of the season. Consequently, − wet and wet winter seasons can be observed in the first 1468 is the only autumn season with index value 3 in the decade of the century, at the beginning of the 1420s and temperature reconstruction, whereas at the other end of the + 1430s and in the middle of the 1480s. scale the year 1487 fulfilled the criteria for index value 3. During the 1480s there was a clustering of cold and very cold autumn seasons. 5.2 Spring Extremely dry (index value −3) autumn seasons occurred in the years 1442 and 1473. The years 1405, 1423, 1468, A cluster of cold anomalies (index values of −3 and −2) can 1483 and 1491 can be awarded index value +3. Towards the be detected during the second half of the 1420s, the 1430s end of the century wet and very wet autumn seasons pre- and the last 2 decades of the century, similarly to the winter vailed. However, in both indices there are many gaps during reconstruction. Warm anomalies prevailed during the 1460s the 1430s, 1450s and 1460s. and 1470s. The years 1432, 1443, 1446, 1481 and 1492 are reported to be years with extremely low temperatures (index value −3), whereas the spring seasons of the years 1420 and 6 Prevailing weather conditions of the 15th century 1473 stood out for their extremely warm temperatures (index The first decade of the 15th century was characterised by value +3). rather average temperatures with the exception of the ex- No spring season has been proven to be extremely wet (in- tremely cold winter seasons in 1399/1400 and 1407/1408 and dex value −3). Also, at the other end of the scale, in the the extremely cold summer of 1406. Also, with regard to pre- 15th century, only the year 1424 was determined to be an cipitation, most years are within the average, apart from au- extremely dry spring season. Very wet, wet, average, dry and tumn 1405 and summer 1406, which were extremely wet, very dry seasons are spread throughout the century. Only the the very wet spring in 1404, summer in 1408 and winter in 1440s included two very dry spring seasons, and in 1427 and 1408/1409 and the very dry seasons in winter 1403/1404, au- 1428 very wet spring seasons occurred. tumn 1404 and spring 1409. There is not much information available for the subsequent decade concerning temperatures 5.3 Summer and most known seasons were average. However, in 1412 and 1413 there were very warm temperatures in the summer The prevailing weather conditions of the summer seasons season and in 1416/1417 the winter temperatures were re- are better documented than those of the spring seasons (see ported as very cold. Regarding precipitation, the period from Fig. 6). This is due to the preference of medieval authors to autumn 1414 to spring 1415 needs to be mentioned for its describe weather conditions during periods when much agri- above-average wet seasons. The winter season of 1414/1415 cultural work had to be done. As a consequence fewer gaps was also extremely wet. exist in the two summer indices. Nonetheless, there is a lack A considerable number of very cold and one extremely of information at the beginning of the century and during the cold (1422/1423) winter seasons can be identified in the 1450s. Apart from that, shorter gaps are spread throughout 1420s. Very cold spring temperatures are reported for 1421 the whole century. In 1406, 1428 and 1468 the weather con- and 1427, as well as a very cold summer in 1428. In 1420 ditions were extremely cold, whereas extremely warm sum- there was an extremely warm summer, whereas very warm mer seasons (index value −3) are reported in the years 1466, and mild temperatures occurred in winter 1420/1421 and 1471, 1473 and 1491. The year 1473 stands out by virtue of summer 1422 and 1424. its extremely high temperatures, possibly topped only by the The 1430s were an exceptional decade of the 15th cen- year 1540 (Wetter et al., 2014). A cluster of warm anomalies tury. The majority the winter seasons were extremely cold or at the beginning of the 1470s and clusters of cold anoma- at least very cold and a considerable number of spring sea- lies during the 1480s and at the beginning of the subsequent sons had the same characteristics. This remarkable tempera- decade are also remarkable. ture cluster, together with other cold periods in the 15th cen- Extremely dry years (index value −3) were 1422, 1424, tury, is responsible for the title chosen: “endless cold”. Ho- 1442, 1473 and 1492. Extremely wet seasons (index value race Hubert Lamb suggested, with regard to the winter tem- +3) were the summers in 1406, 1423, 1428, 1455, 1480 and peratures, that the 1430s and the 1690s constitute the cold- 1491. Obviously there were extremes on both sides of the est episodes of the last millennium (Lamb, 1982). Very re- scale during the 1420s. A cluster of dry anomalies is docu- cent research even associates this decade with an early phase mented during the 1450s, a decade rather lacking in records. of the Spörer Minimum (Camenisch et al., 2014). There is

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4 Spring

-1

-2

-3

-4

Temperature Precipitation

Figure 6. Summer indices.

4 Autumn

-1

-2

-3

-4

Temperature Precipitation

Figure 7. Autumn indices. less information about summer temperatures because they During the 1440s, there were three extremely cold sea- were not as remarkable as the winter and spring tempera- sons in winter 1442/1443, in the subsequent spring 1443 tures. However, in 1432 there was a very warm summer and and in spring 1446, and one very cold season in autumn in 1436 and 1438 the summer temperatures were very cold. 1444. Only in summer 1442 were temperatures very warm. In the same decade a number of above-average wet seasons The decade was characterised by rather dry weather condi- occurred such as winter 1430/1431, winter 1434/1435, sum- tions in the Burgundian Low Countries, especially in 1442, mer 1432 and summer 1438. 1447 and 1448. There are fewer sources available which de-

www.clim-past.net/11/1049/2015/ Clim. Past, 11, 1049–1066, 2015 1060 C. Camenisch: Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation scribe the 1450s. However, there is a remarkable cluster of Litzenburger (2015) recently presented a further cli- above-average wet summer seasons from 1453 until 1456. mate reconstruction from Metz (Lorraine, France) based There is more information on the subsequent decade. Winter on documentary data and containing seasonal tempera- 1461/1462 was extremely cold and very dry; in 1465 there ture and precipitation indices. A comparison of the two was a second extremely cold winter. In the following year reconstructions shows remarkable similarities. The sum- temperatures in summer were extremely warm and it was mer temperatures (r = 0.844; N = 40; p < 0.01) and au- very dry until autumn. Moreover, in 1468 occurred an ex- tumn precipitation (r = 0.708; N = 31; p < 0.01) are very tremely cold and wet summer followed by an autumn with close. Also rather similar are winter temperatures (r = 0.658; the same weather conditions. N = 70; p < 0.01), spring temperatures (r = 0.671; N = 41; The 1470s are a decade with warm anomalies in the sum- p < 0.01) and precipitation (r = 0.609; N = 27; p < 0.01) mer season. Weather conditions were predominantly dry and and summer precipitation (r = 0.641; N = 48; p < 0.01), warm in the years from 1471 to 1473 and again in 1479. though N is rather low in some parts of the analyses. The At the very beginning of the decade there was an extremely comparison of the annual temperature (obtained by summing cold winter followed by a very cold spring. Also from winter the seasonal indices as Pfister and Brázdil, 1999, suggest) 1476/1477 to spring 1477 and in winter 1477/1478 below- and precipitation series show even higher correlations (see average temperatures prevailed. During the last 2 years of Fig. 8). The most obvious difference occurs during the 1450s, the decade, warm spells again become more frequent. when the indices presented here are much closer to the aver- At the beginning and at the end of the 1480s remarkable age than Litzenburger’s. This is because the former indices cold and wet weather conditions need to be mentioned. In have many gaps in this decade, producing a rather average particular the period from summer 1480 to summer 1481 was and misleading result regarding the summed indices for the exceptional because of an above-average amount of precip- whole year. itation and considerably low temperatures. In contrast, the Comparison with the indices presented by Glaser and winter of 1483 experienced extremely mild temperatures. Riemann (2009) shows weaker correlations. The closest re- The below-average temperatures of 1488 returned again in lationships exist between the summer temperature indices 1491 when almost the whole year was characterised by ex- (r = 0.494; N = 50; p < 0.01), the spring temperature in- tremely cold weather conditions. With regard to precipitation dices (r = 0.415; N = 47; p < 0.01) and the winter tempera- the wet anomalies in summer 1491 and winter 1496/1497 ture indices (r = 0.393; N = 82; p < 0.01). The reason for need to be mentioned as well as the drought in summer 1492. this is probably the greater distance between the two researched areas and the different scales of the indices because Glaser applies a three-degree scale for the 15th century. 7 Discussion Furthermore, the indices presented here were compared with the grape harvest dates and spring–summer reconstruc- Comparison of the indices presented herein with a number tion for Burgundy presented by Chuine et al. (2004). Also, of other reconstructions was made. The winter (NDJFM) in this case the results show a strong relationhip between and summer (MJJAS) temperature indices by Shabalova and the Chuine et al. data and the indices presented here. The van Engelen (2003), van Engelen et al. (2001) and Buisman grape harvest dates are sensitive to spring and summer tem- (1995, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2006, 2015) for the Netherlands are peratures. The highest Pearson correlation coefficients were based on documentary evidence and are the closest recon- obtained in comparison with these indices (spring temper- struction regarding methods (nine-degree indices) and ge- atures: r = 0.521; N = 47; p < 0.01 and summer tempera- ographical coverage. Nonetheless, there are differences be- tures: r = 0.637; N = 50; p < 0.01). Obviously, the summer cause the winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) temperature in- precipitation index is also rather similar (r = 0.548; N = 60; dices presented in this paper and the van Engelen indices p < 0.01). In addition, a certain relationship, albeit with do not cover exactly the same months and the van Engelen a weaker level of significance, is established between the indices have considerably fewer gaps, especially in summer. grape harvest dates and the spring precipitation (r = 0.435; However, the Pearson correlation coefficients are remarkably N = 32; p < 0.05) and the autumn precipitation (r = 0.348; high. Regarding the winter temperatures, a coefficient (r) of N = 39; p < 0.05). The results of the comparison with the −0.893 (N = 81; p < 0.01, the van Engelen indices equate Chuine et al. data are very important as these data were ob- to the winter indices presented here) and as regards the sum- tained from completely independent methods and sources. mer temperatures a coefficient of 0.783 (N = 50; p < 0.01) The Litzenburger, van Engelen and Glaser indices were also shows the close relationship between the two reconstruc- produced independently but the applied method and a num- tions. The relationhip between the van Engelen summer tem- ber of sources are very similar to the indices presented here. perature index and the presented summer precipitation in- Comparison between the indices and the reconstruction dex (r = 0.792; N = 60; p < 0.01), spring temperature index by Büntgen et al. (2011) shows only weak similarities. The (r = 0.465; N = 46; p < 0.01), and spring precipitation in- considerable distance between the two researched areas and dex (r = 0.585; N = 31; p < 0.01) is also remarkably close.

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12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 -10 -11 -12 1420 1425 1430 1435 1440 1445 1450 1455 1460 1465 1470 1475 1480 1485 1490 1495

Metz Low Countries 7-degree-centred moving average (Metz) 7-degree-centred moving average (Low Countries)

Figure 8. Comparison between temperature indices from Metz (Litzenburger, 2015) and the Low Countries (Camenisch, 2015). the completely different methods are probably the reason for in 1407/1408. This cluster of cold winters has been under- this. estimated in recent research. A number of dry and hot spells occurred; amongst them the year 1473 was unique because of the extent and duration of the heat and the lack of precipita- 8 Conclusions tion. Extremely wet weather conditions especially in summer This paper gives an overview of seasonal temperature and were prevalent at the beginning and the end of the 1480s and precipitation during the 15th century. The reconstruction at the beginning of the 1490s. Comparison with Dutch and contains eight climate indices (separate indices on temper- French reconstructions shows very satisfactory results. ature and precipitation for every season) based on documen- The climate indices in Appendix A will provide the basis tary evidence. The main body of the data set consists of nar- for further research with regard to climate impacts on human rative sources such as chronicles, annals, memoirs or journals society. and administrative sources such as accounts. These sources have individual and institutional backgrounds. The sources contain either direct data and/or indirect data (proxy data that can be converted into climate indices). The basis of the indices is a seven-degree scale starting with −3 for extremely cold or extremely dry conditions and going up to +3 for extremely warm or extremely wet conditions. A catalogue of criteria was defined for every index value in order to evaluate as many seasons as possible. The indices for winter temperatures, summer temperatures and summer precipitation are the most complete. During the 15th century a number of exceptional weather patterns can be detected. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the climate of this century, as it is an interesting period, which has not yet been sufficiently examined. Most remarkable are a cluster of extremely cold winter temperatures during the 1430s – the reason for the first part of the title – as well as an extremely cold winter www.clim-past.net/11/1049/2015/ Clim. Past, 11, 1049–1066, 2015 1062 C. Camenisch: Endless cold: a seasonal reconstruction of temperature and precipitation

Appendix A: Climate indices

Table A1. Climate indices.

Year Winter Spring Summer Autumn Temp. Prec. Temp. Prec. Temp. Prec. Temp. Prec. 1400 −3 1 1401 −1 1 1402 1 1 1 −1 1403 1404 1 −2 −2 2 1 −1 1 −2 1405 −1 1 3 1406 0 1 0 −3 3 1 1407 1 1 1 −1 1 −1 1408 −3 1 1 0 2 1 −1 1409 2 2 0 −2 −1 1410 1411 1412 1 2 −2 1413 2 −1 −2 1414 −2 2 1415 1 3 2 0 1416 1 1417 −2 1 −2 1418 −1 0 0 1 1419 −1 0 −1 1 1420 −2 1 3 1 −1 1421 2 1 −2 0 1422 −1 1 0 2 −3 1 1423 −3 1 3 1 3 1424 −2 −3 2 −3 1 1425 2 1 1426 −2 1427 −2 −2 2 0 0 −1 1428 0 −1 2 −3 3 1429 0 2 1430 1 1 −2 1 1431 0 2 −1 −1 1432 −3 1 −3 1 2 2 −1 1433 −3 0 −2 1434 −2 0 −1 1435 −3 2 −2 0 1436 0 1 −2 1 1437 −3 −1 1 1438 −2 −2 2 1439 1 2 0 −1 −1 1440 1 1441 0 1442 −1 −2 2 −3 −3 1443 −3 1 −3 1 0 1 1444 0 −1 −1 −2 1 1445 0 −1 2 1446 −3 1 −1 1447 −1 −2 1 −2 1 −1 1448 0 −3 1449 1450 1 −1 −2

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Table A1. Continued.

Year Winter Spring Summer Autumn Temp. Prec. Temp. Prec. Temp. Prec. Temp. Prec. 1451 0 −1 1 1 1452 0 1 1453 0 −1 2 1454 0 1 2 1455 3 1456 2 1457 −1 1 1 1458 −3 1 −1 −2 −2 1459 0 1 −1 1460 −2 −2 1461 −2 1462 −3 −2 −1 −1 1463 −1 1464 1 −2 1465 −3 −1 0 −2 1 1466 −1 1 0 3 −2 1 −2 1467 0 2 −1 2 0 2 2 1468 0 0 −3 2 −3 3 1469 1 1 2 1470 −3 −2 2 1471 2 2 3 −2 −1 1472 1 −1 2 1473 1 1 3 −1 3 −3 2 −3 1474 2 1475 0 1 1 −1 1 1 1476 −2 −2 1 1 1 1477 −2 1 −1 1478 2 1 1479 2 0 2 −2 1480 −1 −2 3 2 1481 −3 −3 1 −2 2 1 −1 1482 0 0 0 1483 3 −1 0 1 3 1484 0 1 −1 −1 1 −2 1485 1 3 0 −2 2 −1 2 1486 0 2 0 0 1487 0 3 1488 0 −2 1 −2 −2 1489 0 −1 −1 2 2 1490 2 1 1 −1 2 −1 1491 −3 −3 −3 3 −1 3 1492 −2 −1 2 −3 1 1493 0 0 −2 0 0 2 1494 0 1 0 1495 1 1 0 0 1 1496 −2 −2 2 1 1497 1 3 −1 1 2 1 1498 −1 2 −2 2 −2 1 0 1499 −1 1

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Acknowledgements. Acknowledgements are given to the Swiss Buisman, J.: Duizend jaar weer, wind en water in de Lage Landen, National Foundation, the Historical Institute of the University of 3 (1450–1575), edited by: van Engelen, A. F. V., Van Wijnen, Bern and the Oeschger Centre for Climatic Change Research for Franeker, Netherlands, 1998 (in Dutch). funding support. Heli Huhtamaa, Oliver Wetter, and Christian Pfis- Buisman, J.: Duizend jaar weer, wind en water in de Lage Landen, ter (University of Bern) are thanked for their advice. Many thanks 4 (1575–1675), edited by: van Engelen, A. F. V., Van Wijnen, to Marco Zanoli for providing the map of the Burgundian Low Franeker, Netherlands, 2000 (in Dutch). Countries and to Laurent Litzenburger for Fig. 8. Buisman, J.: Duizend jaar weer, wind en water in de Lage Landen, 5 (1675–1750), edited by: by van Engelen, A. F. V., Van Wijnen, Edited by: J. Luterbacher Franeker, Netherlands, 2006 (in Dutch). Buisman, J.: Extreem weer! 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