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Speaking Up: Down-Ballot Candidate Communication, Clinton, Trump, and the Election That Surprised America

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Speaking Up: Down-Ballot Candidate Communication, Clinton, Trump, and the Election That Surprised America Speaking Up: Down-Ballot Candidate Communication, Clinton, Trump, and the Election that Surprised America Kiana M. Scott A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Washington 2017 Reading Committee: David Domke, Chair Mark Smith J. Patrick Dobel Program Authorized to Offer Degree: Department of Communication © Copyright 2017 Kiana M. Scott University of Washington Abstract Speaking Up: Down-Ballot Candidate Communication, Clinton, Trump, and the Election that Surprised America Kiana M. Scott Chair of the Supervisory Committee: Professor David Domke Department of Communication This dissertation examined legislative candidates’ public communications about Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump during the 2016 presidential election, via three forms of analysis. Specifically, I employed content analysis to examine patterns of state and federal legislative candidate communication on Twitter, with attention to the level of office sought, incumbency status, partisan identity, and candidate gender. I analyzed tweets referencing the presidential nominees from 98 candidates running for legislative office during the election. Second, I conducted semi-structured interviews with candidates for the Washington State Legislature, to examine how candidates constructed discourse about the presidential nominees. Third, I analyzed Republican U.S. senators’ public communication responses to the release of a video showing Trump bragging about sexually assaulting women, a discursive moment that essentially forced lawmakers to react publicly. Together, these analyses indicate important differences in how down-ballot candidates communicate about the nominees at the top of the ticket, and complicate the role of these political actors and communicators. Findings of this work have several important implications for our understanding of legislative candidate communication, and offer insight into an understudied area of American political communication. Table of Contents List of Tables i Acknowledgements ii Chapter One: Down-ballot Communication in American Politics 1 Chapter Two: Dissertation Design and Methodology 54 Chapter Three: Down-ballot Candidate Communication about Presidential Nominees 75 Chapter Four: Constructing State Legislative Discourse 103 Chapter Five: Public Responses to Trump’s “Access Hollywood” Remarks 139 Chapter Six: Understanding Legislative Candidate Communications 168 References 191 Appendix A: Codebook for Content Analysis 209 Appendix B: Interview Instrument 216 List of Tables Table 2.1: U.S. Senate candidates, 2016 57 Table 2.2: U.S. House of Representatives candidates, 2016 59 Table 2.3: Washington State Senate candidates, 2016 61 Table 2.4: Washington State House of Representatives candidates, 2016 63 Table 3.1: Frequency of communication by federal and state candidates 85 Table 3.2: Frequency of communication by U.S. Senate and U.S. House candidates 87 Table 3.3: Partisan support and opposition for Clinton and Trump 88 Table 3.4: Frequency of legislative candidate communications about Clinton and Trump 91 Table 3.5: Federal incumbents compared to federal challengers in Twitter communication about Clinton and Trump 92 Table 3.6: Federal incumbent candidate communication to and about presidential nominees 94 Table 3.7: Novelty references to Clinton and Trump 95 Table 3.8: Candidate communication about gender novelty by party and gender 98 i Acknowledgments Writing a dissertation is a solitary activity, but I was lucky to embark on this journey surrounded by supporters, mentors, and loved ones near and far. Beginning a dissertation about the value and construction of public communications with a public expression of gratitude feels both appropriate, and not nearly enough. To everyone who walked with me in this endeavor, thank you. A few special acknowledgements: To the Department of Communication at the University of Washington, particularly Heather Werckle for always having an answer and a solution, Anita Verna Crofts for sharing her friendship and love of pie, the many exemplary faculty with whom I have had the honor to grow as a scholar, and the colleagues and classmates from whom I have learned so much. And to members of the DRG who taught me how to be a student of political communication: Dr. Lindsey Meeks, Dr. Damon Di Cicco, and Dr. Colin Lingle, thank you. A special thanks to Lindsey for her assistance in mastering the world of Twitter communication, and to Dr. Katy Pearce, for her guidance in strengthening the analysis of Chapter Three. Part of this research was generously funded through the support of the William and Janice Ames Endowment for Graduate Research. Thanks to the many donors who invest in graduate education, and particularly Dr. Jerry Baldasty, someone I respect immensely, who invested in mine. To the intrepid public servants who interrupted the last weeks of a busy campaign to spend time with a doctoral student, and graciously offered me insight into your decision-making, communication, and strategy—thank you. To my colleagues at the Evans School, particularly Dean Sandra Archibald, Rebecca Ehrlichman Blume, and my wonderful team, thank you for giving me space and support to pursue this work. To my committee, Dr. Pat Dobel, Dr. Christine Harold, and Dr. Mark Smith, thank you for your guidance, questions, and willingness to dive into this topic alongside me. And to Dr. David Domke, for teaching me, challenging me, pushing me to do my best, and helping me chart my own course through these years of intellectual adventure. Your mentorship and intelligence has made me a better scholar, and your curiosity will always inspire me to keep asking questions, and searching for answers. It has been a true privilege to pursue this work under your guidance. Finally, to the wonderful people I am lucky enough to call family: Willy, Tiger, Lindsay, and especially Mom, Kendall and Stella. And to Alex, for making me laugh, making me put down the laptop (sometimes), and making this possible. I love you all more than I can say. ii Chapter One Down-Ballot Communication in American Politics On April 12, 2015, as Hillary Clinton announced her campaign for U.S. President, two female Democratic politicians tweeted messages about her. New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand sent this message to her Twitter followers: “@HillaryClinton has a vision for a better future. Help make it a reality, join #OffTheSidelines & support Hillary.” That same day, Washington State Representative Gael Tarleton, who represents part of Seattle, tweeted the following message to her Twitter followers, in response to an article from the Chicago Tribune: “We now endure 19 months of 6-7 Republican men shredding character of one Democratic woman. Hillary will be last one standing.” Senator Gillibrand and Representative Tarleton were two politicians operating in distinct contexts, with very different connections to Clinton and her campaign. Gillibrand replaced Clinton as U.S. senator from New York after the latter’s appointment to President Barack Obama’s cabinet, and then worked alongside Clinton in subsequent months. It is likely that Clinton and Gillibrand had a personal relationship in addition to their professional connection—and also likely that Gillibrand, a national figure herself, was careful in her use of Twitter as a public forum to reach her 156,000 followers. Tarleton, a state representative, likely did not have either a personal or professional connection with Hillary Clinton—nor, with fewer than 1,200 Twitter followers, did she command a national audience of potential benefit for Clinton’s presidential hopes. It is possible that she simply wanted to share her feelings about her favored candidate. What these messages illustrate is that two politicians, across the country and in very different political contexts, believed that their public communications about a presidential candidate were valuable. Political campaigns are propelled by numerous public 1 communications. Words, especially uttered by political leaders in public, matter. Political leaders, and those seeking elected office, give endless stump speeches and rallies, air television and radio advertisements, host “Saturday Night Live,” and appear on talk shows and debates. Their faces, voices, and words are close to omnipresent, especially during campaign season— and especially during presidential campaigns. But political leaders do not simply talk to the public. Instead, they strategically construct discourse to attain set goals. Campaign communications are carefully crafted with specific political objectives in mind (Domke & Coe, 2008). Leaders convey messages to the public that are intentional and strategic. As Manheim (1991) writes, “What sets strategic political communication apart from other types [of communication] is the way in which those engaged in it use sophisticated knowledge about human behavior to mold information to accomplish very specific, and often very short-term, objectives” (p. 7). Political communication, then, is a public contest with a public goal. Politicians, in their communications to the public, are working to achieve their own objectives and aims. These goals drive their public communications, and necessitate strategic approaches to their discourse. Both Gillibrand and Tarleton—white female politicians from the same political party, from different levels of political office, on different sides of the country—sought an impact by communicating publicly about Clinton. For these political
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