Agreement Without Implementation: Military Bases and Alliance Tensions in Kerri Ng

~Appendix~

Part 1: Data for Figures 9.5 and 9.7

Figures 9.1 and 9.2 are visual summaries of the data compiled and analyzed in the six tables below. The first three tables deal with the sub-case of MCAS Iwakuni (Figure 9.1); the levels of tensions and preference incorporation in Tables 1 and 2 are based on qualitative analysis of the data in Table 3. The last three tables deal with the sub-case of MCAS Futenma (Figure 9.2); the levels of tensions and preference incorporation in Tables 4 and 5 are based on qualitative analysis of the data in Table 6.

Measurements Assessment of the levels of tensions and preference incorporation are carried out on a 5-point scale, from 1 (lowest) to 5 (highest). Each is based on three indicators as outlined in Table 2.2 (p.61) and Table 9.2 (p.230), copied below.

Table 2.2/9.2: Indicators for Tensions and Preference Incorporation

Observation Tensions Preference Incorporation

Indicators Size/intensity of protests No./frequency of consultations Results of elections/referenda Breadth of actors involved Subnational leader behavior Were requests incorporated?

A more detailed description of these indicators, available in Chapter 2 Alliance Theory and Basing Politics (pp. 59-61), is briefly summarized here. The indicators for tensions are the number and size of protests rallies, the results of major public polls such as elections and referenda, and the cooperativeness of subnational leaders. The indicators for preference incorporation are the number and frequency of consultations between national and subnational actors, the breadth of actors involved, and whether and to what extent requests were incorporated into the agreements. In the analysis chapter (9), this data is used to summarise the levels of both tensions and PI over each agreement-implementation sequence, using the following descriptors. LOW (1-2) – MODERATE (3) – HIGH (4-5) and movement between these states.

1 Table A1: Levels of Tensions in Iwakuni City and , 1990-2015

Year Indicator Summary Overall level of tensions (1-5) 1990 SN leader behavior NA 1 Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 1991 SN leader behavior NA 1 Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 1992 SN leader behavior NA 1 Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 1993 SN leader behavior NA 1 Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 1994 SN leader behavior NA 1 Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 1995 SN leader behavior NA 2 Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 1996 SN leader behavior LOW 2 (SACO (1) Yamaguchi acquiesces immediately to the report) transfer of KC-130, on the condition that it doesn't reinforce/strengthen the functions of the base. (2) Iwakuni Mayor KIFUNE initially opposed, but reverses decision shortly afterwards. Protests LOW (1) 1 small-scale protest (4,000 residents = less than 5% of population), staged to coincide with US SecDef PERRY 24- hour visit to Japan. Elections/Referenda LOW (2) Sekinari NII (LDP-supported) is elected Governor. Does not oppose the KC-130 transfer.

1997 SN leader behavior LOW 1 (1) Jan: Iwakuni Mayor KIFUNE accepts transfer (2) Feb: one month later, Governor NII and another local SN leader accpet the transfer. Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda NA

2 Year Indicator Summary Overall level of tensions (1-5) 1998 SN leader behavior LOW 1 (1) Governor NII emphasizes condition of not increasing the burden on Iwakuni following reported rumor that MCAS Futenma units would be tranfered to MCAS Iwakuni.

Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda NA 1999 SN leader behavior NA 1 Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda LOW (1) Katsusuke IHARA is elected as Mayor of Iwakuni. No base related controversies at this time 2000 SN leader behavior NONE recorded 1 Protests LOW (1) local discontent registered in relation to short notice for FCLP drills at Iwakuni (moved from Iwo Jima b/c of the weather), but not on the level of formal protest actions. Elections/Referenda NA 2001 SN leader behavior LOW 1 (1) Officials from Iwakuni and four other municipal govts request that the US military moves FCLP drills to Iwo Jima.

Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 2002 SN leader behavior LOW 1 (1) Yamaguchi prefectural govt and other SN actors start submitting formal requests that MCAS Iwakuni be used as a joint civilian-military airport, as was the case in early years after WW2. Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 2003 SN leader behavior LOW 1 (1) Governor NII sets up task force in prefectural govt to deal with security matters

Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda Iwakuni Mayor IHARA relected. 2004 SN leader behavior MODERATE 2 (1) Both Governor NII and Mayor IHARA respond negatively to the rumors of the DPRI-associated transfers, and emphasize that the functions of MCAS Iwakuni should not be "strengthened." Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA

3 Year Indicator Summary Overall level of tensions (1-5) 2005 SN leader behavior LOW~MODERATE 3 (DPRI (1) Mar: Iwakuni City officials continue trying to verify interim rumors about the transfers to Iwakuni; express report) dissatisfaction with 's actions and secrecy. (2) Jun: Iwakuni assembly passes resolution against any transfers (3) Business community representatives, however, willing to acquiesce in exchange for economic benefits. (4) Oct: SN leaders all express discontent at not having been consulted. Yamaguchi Governor NII argues that the CVW-5 transfer ammounts to transferring noise from Atsugi. On Nov 16, Iwakuni Mayor IHARA expresses formal opposition to the transfer.

Protests MODERATE (1) Scattered protests in response to leaks/reports that facilities will relocate to their area. (2) There were also protests and praise in response to the DPRI interim report. Elections/Referenda NA 2006 SN leader behavior MODERATE~HIGH 4 (1) Iwakuni Mayor IHARA uses Mar referendum and Apr election results as mandate for stringent stance against the CVW-5 transfers. (2) Yamaguchi Governor NII and, from Oct, the Iwakuni City assembly, are both in favor of the transfer in exchange for economic subsidies. Protests No major protest actions recorded Elections/Referenda MODERATE (moves from opposed to for) (1) Mar: Iwakuni City holds non-binding referendum on the transfers. 51.3% of eligible voters (83% of votes cast with 58% turnout) oppose the CVW-5 transfer. (2) However, business community opposed the referendum; and 6 of the 7 towns that merged with Iwakuni one week following the referendum acquiesced to the transfers. (3) Apr: Iwakuni Mayor IHARA relected following merger of municipalities. (4) Oct: Citizens give conservatives that support transfer a majority in the Iwakuni City assembly elections.

2007 SN leader behavior MODERATE~HIGH 4 (1) Iwakuni Mayor IHARA remains opposed throughout the year. He is the only holdout. (2) Mar: Iwakuni City Assembly passes resolution supporting transfers, on condition that FCLP drills will never be permanently based at MCAS Iwakuni. (3) Jul: Governor NII gives IHARA deadine on the Atago Hills development. The Iwakuni City Business and Commerce Association also calls on IHARA to accept the transfer to guarantee that the airport will be opened. Protests No major protest actions recorded Elections/Referenda NA

4 Year Indicator Summary Overall level of tensions (1-5) 2008 SN leader behavior MODERATE=> LOW 3 (1) IHARA resigned in Dec 2007 with the intention of using the election as the last 'referendum'. He loses to the LDP- supported FUKUDA. (2) Mar: New mayor FUKUDA officially accepts the transfer. He later moves on to the task of ensuring that local requests/demands are heard. (3) Iwakuni City has Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda LOW (1) Feb: LDP-backed FUKUDA wins Iwakuni Mayoral election (2) Aug: Governor NII is reelected.

2009 SN leader behavior MODERATE 3 (1) Dec: Yamaguchi Prefecture Govt / Gov NII sets aside Atago Hills sale, due to fears that Iwakuni is being considered potential site for Futenma relocation

Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda NA (1) Aug: Japanese general election has little to do directly with Iwakuni (though HATOYAMA's pledge to review Futenma Agreement creates uncertainty about Iwakuni, particularly with regards to the concern that it is a candidate site for the FRF.)

2010 SN leader behavior MODERATE 3 (1) Mar: Iwakuni City Mayor and vice mayor reiterate opposition to Iwakuni being a candidate for the FRF. (2) Throughout the year, Gov NII and Mayor FUKUDA also keep submitting to GOJ local demands/requests re: the Atago Hills project.

Protests LOW (1) May: protest rally of 5,000 people, organized by former mayor IHARA.

Elections/Referenda NA 2011 SN leader behavior LOW~MODERATE 2 (1) Throughout the year, Gov NII and Mayor FUKUDA keep submitting demands/requests. In particular, they emphasise that MCAS Iwakuni must not receive more Marines from Futenma. (2) But they also cooperate to facilitate understanding amongst city residents (3) Nov: Gov NII and Mayor FUKUDA finally agree to the sale of the Atago Hills development site.

Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda NA

5 Year Indicator Summary Overall level of tensions (1-5) 2012 SN leader behavior MODERATE~HIGH 3 (1) Feb: Gov NII freezes sale of Atago Hills project unless Iwakuni is removed from transfer list for Marines from . He reverses the decision the following month after the US and Japan agree not to transfer any more Marines to Iwakuni (aside from the KC-130 unit from SACO) (2) Jun: Iwakuni City Assembly passes resolution against Osprey deployment

Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda LOW (1) Jan: FUKUDA is reelected over former Mayor IHARA. 2013 SN leader behavior MODERATE 2 (1) Oct: FUKUDA initially shows opposition to the formal announcement that the KC-130 unit will be transferred by 2014, because little progress has been made on relocating Futenma within Okinawa. However, he relents and accepts the transfer by Dec, after examining the issue and visiting Okinawa. Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda NA 2014 SN leader behavior LOW 1 (1) KC-130 unit transfer completed, with no protest actions recorded from local government.

Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda LOW (1) Oct: Iwakuni City assembly elections -- politicians opposed to transfer win only 10/32 seats. Low turnout of 57.4%. 2015 SN leader behavior No issues recorded. 1 Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda NA (However, Mayor FUKUDA is reelected in January 2016, with the turnout at only 47.5%)

6 Table A2: Levels of Preference Incorporation in Iwakuni City and Yamaguchi Prefecture, 1990-2015

Indicator Summary Overall level of PI (1-5) 1990 Meeting SNAs Not recorded in Table A3, but discussions were ongoing. 4 Breadth of SNAs LOW~MODERATE (1) Generally speaking, local govt represented other actors Request incorporation NA (moving towards agreement) 1991 Meeting SNAs Not recorded Table A3, but discussions were ongoing. 4 Breadth of SNAs LOW~MODERATE (1) Generally speaking, local govt represented other actors Request Incorporation NA (moving towards agreement) 1992 Meeting SNAs Not recorded Table A3, but discussions were ongoing. 4

Breadth of SNAs LOW~MODERATE (1) Generally speaking, local govt represented other actors

Request incorporation MODERATE~HIGH (1) US and Japan sign MOU on shifting MCAS runway 1km seaward 1993 Meeting SNAs Not recorded Table A3, but discussions were ongoing. 5 Breadth of SNAs LOW~MODERATE (1) Generally speaking, local govt represented other actors Request Incorporation MODERATE~HIGH (1) US and Japan were working with local governments towards implementation 1994 Meeting SNAs Not recorded in Table A3, but discussions were ongoing. 5 Breadth of SNAs LOW~MODERATE (1) Generally speaking, local govt represented other actors Request Incorporation MODERATE~HIGH (1) US and Japan were working with local governments towards implementation

1995 Meeting SNAs Not recorded in Table A3, but discussions were ongoing. 5 Breadth of SNAs LOW~MODERATE (1) Generally speaking, local govt represented other actors Request Incorporation MODERATE~HIGH (1) US and Japan were working with local governments towards implementation 1996 Meeting SNAs LOW~MODERATE 5 (1) Ongoing b/c of the 1992 MOU process. (2) But few meetings prior to SACO

Breadth of SNAs LOW~MODERATE (1) Generally speaking, local govt represented other actors

7 Indicator Summary Overall level of PI (1-5) Request Incorporation MODERATE~HIGH (1) KC-130 to be transferred from Okinawa, without prior notification. (2) However, Harrier jets are returned to the US promptly, as a means of ensuring 'no increase in the burden' on the city. 1997 Meeting SNAs LOW~MODERATE 5 (1) Ongoing b/c of the 1992 MOU process.

Breadth of SNAs MODERATE (1) Governor, mayors, business / citizens Request Incorporation MODERATE~HIGH (1) Construction of new MCAS Iwakuni runway begins. 1998 Meeting SNAs LOW~MODERATE 5 (1) Ongoing b/c of the 1992 MOU process. Breadth of SNAs LOW~MODERATE (1) Governor, Mayor

Request Incorporation MODERATE~HIGH (1) Construction of runway continues (implementation) 1999 Meeting SNAs LOW~MODERATE 5 (1) Ongoing b/c of the 1992 MOU process. Breadth of SNAs No new information. Assumed to be similar to prior years Request incorporation MODERATE~HIGH (1) Construction of runway continues (implementation) 2000 Meeting SNAs LOW~MODERATE 5 (1) Ongoing b/c of the 1992 MOU process.

Breadth of SNAs No new information. Assumed to be similar to prior years Request incorporation MODERATE~HIGH (1) Construction of runway continues (implementation) 2001 Meeting SNAs: LOW~MODERATE 5 (1) Ongoing b/c of the 1992 MOU process. Breadth of SNAs No new information. Assumed to be similar to prior years Request incorporation MODERATE~HIGH (1) Construction of runway continues (implementation) 2002 Meeting SNAs LOW~MODERATE 5 (1) Ongoing b/c of the 1992 MOU process. (2) US govt and GOJ also launch DPRI talks. Breadth of SNAs No new information. Assumed to be similar to prior years Request incorporation HIGH (1) Aside from ongoing construction, GOJ budgets feasibility studies for joint airport

2003 Meeting SNAs LOW~MODERATE 5 (1) Ongoing b/c of the 1992 MOU process. (2) But most of the DPRI discussions are only revealed to local actors in subsequent years (2004/2005). Breadth of SNAs No new information. Assumed to be similar to prior years

8 Indicator Summary Overall level of PI (1-5) Request incorporation MODERATE~HIGH (1) No changes to the MOU and the SACO agreements during this period.

2004 Meeting SNAs LOW 4 (1) Unclear whether any significant meetings took place. (2) DPRI negotiations take place primarily at international level Breadth of SNAs NA Request incorporation MODERATE (1) No changes to MOU and the SACO agreements (2) However, from ~July, the newsmedia starts reporting rumors of DPRI transfers, such as of Carrier Wing 5 (CVW- 5) from Atsugi to Iwakuni.

2005 Meeting SNAs LOW 3 (1) Unclear whether any significant meetings took place. (2) DPRI negotiations take place primarily at international level, and news reports suggests that Iwakuni's SN leaders were left to react to announcements.

Breadth of SNAs NA Request incorporation LOW~MODERATE (1) In Iwakuni, the CVW-5 transfer is widely considered likely to increase the burden on the community. (2) The US and JPN governments attempt to balance the physical burden by transferring MSDF units to another facility; but this is regarded as an economic burden. (3) However, civilian flights from Iwakuni also to be reopened.

2006 Meeting SNAs MODERATE 3 (1) High level officials and representatives of the central govt (DFAA branch from Hiroshima) make several trips to Iwakuni to meet with SN leaders, explain the DPRI (Roadmap agreement) and seek understanding.

Breadth of SNAs MODERATE (1) Yamaguchi Governor NII and Mayors of Iwakuni and surrounding towns (2) These SN leaders also seek and pass on information from their constituents.

Request incorporation LOW~MODERATE (1) US drops opposition to civilian terminal being built within the military facility. (2) MOD freezes funding for the Iwakuni City Hall building to pressure Mayor IHARA to cooperate. (3) Yamaguchi Governor NII and Iwakuni City assembly.

2007 Meeting SNAs HIGH 3 (1) High level officials and representatives of the central govt (DFAA branch from Hiroshima) meet with SN leaders at least nine times over the course of the year.

9 Indicator Summary Overall level of PI (1-5) Breadth of SNAs LOW (1) Main SN actor involved is Iwakuni Mayor IHARA -- understandable, as he was the only actor the GOJ was trying to convince. (2) Governor NII is also involved, but in trying to persuade IHARA to cooperate.

Request incorporation LOW~MODERATE (1) GOJ makes the civilian-military airport conditional on the CVW-5 transfer. 2008 Meeting with SNAs MODERATE 3 (1) Following Iwakuni election, new Mayor FUKUDA arranges to meet with MOD officials. Meetings continue on a more positive note than with IHARA. Breadth of SNAs LOW Request incorporation MODERATE (1) With LDP losing support and DPJ rapidly gaining it, the LDP govt and the US govt specifically signed Guam agreement in order to prevent successive governments from changing the realignment agreements (esp. the plans concerning MCAS Futenma). This does not directly concern MCAS Iwakuni, but can be interpreted as an indication of Tokyo’s sincerity in ensuring that Iwakuni's sacrifice will not be in vein (i.e. by ensuring that the Okinawa realignment will go ahead) 2009 Meeting SNAs LOW~MODERATE 4 (1) fewer than in 2008, but they continued Breadth of SNAs NA Request incorporation MODERATE (1) Feb: CCS Kawamura announces that Iwakuni will resume civilian flights by 2012. (2) Guam agreement ratified 2010 Meeting SNAs MODERATE 3 (1) Feb: US gov confirm that the FCLP wil not be permanently hosted at Iwakuni. GOJ reassures Iwkauni, and the city relays its message to the constituents Breadth of SNAs LOW~MODERATE (1) Mayors and vice mayors

Request incorporation LOW~MODERATE (1) Opening ceremony of new Iwakuni runway; though Governor NII does not attend because the CVW-5 transfer cancelled out the reduction in the burden. 2011 Meeting SNAs MODERATE 4 (1) At least four meetings over the course of the year (both in Tokyo and in Iwakuni).

Breadth of SNAs LOW~MODERATE (1) Iwakuni City Mayor FUKUDA is the key participant on the Iwakuni side.

10 Indicator Summary Overall level of PI (1-5) Request incorporation LOW~MODERATE (1) GOJ starts taking more concrete steps towards implementation.

2012 Meeting SNAs MODERATE 3 (1) At least 4 meetings over the course of the year. Breadth of SNAs LOW (1) Governor NII and Iwakuni Mayor FUKUDA are the key participants on the Iwakuni side

Request incorporation LOW (1) Feb-Mar; announcement that only half of MCAS Futenma's personnel will be going to Guam sparks fears that more units will be transferred to Iwakuni. Yamaguchi Governor NII freezes a crucial step in implementation (sale of Atago Hills project) until this is resolved. (2) Delinkage announcement re: MCAS Futenma opens possibility of further delays. 2013 Meeting SNAs LOW~MODERATE 5 (1) Iwakuni City and the Chugoku/Shikoku defense bureau have discussions on realignment. Not direct to Tokyo government, but govt representatives.

Breadth of SNAs MODERATE (1) The Governor and city representatives. Request incorporation MODERATE~HIGH (1) GOJ announces that the MSDF are going to remain in Iwakuni. (2) All previous PI still applicable. 2014 Meeting with SNAs MODERATE 5 (1) CCS SUGA visited Iwakuni multiple times to explain the transfers. Breadth of SNAs MODERATE (1) Yamaguchi govenor and Mayor FUKUDA/City representatives

Request incorporation MODERATE (1) KC-130 unit transfer is completed despite little concrete progress having been made on MCAS Futenma. However, ABE govt is clearly moving forward on it. (2) GOJ announces plan to expand subsidies for cooperation to prefectural governments. (3) All previous PI still applicable.

2015 Meeting with SNAs NONE recorded 5

Breadth of SNAs NA Request incorporation MODERATE~HIGH (1) No recorded changes -- all previous PI still applicable.

11

Table A3: Developments in Iwakuni City and Yamaguchi Prefecture, 1968-2015 Although this dissertation is focused on military basing developments from 1990-2015, prior events that are relevant to these developments have also been included in this table.

Date Type of Indicator Incident/ Further details development 1968 Tensions -- protests F-4 Phantom crash at Kyushu Residents around MCAS Iwakuni university raise concerns about potential F-4 accidents. Tensions -- SN leader Iwakuni City and Yamaguchi behavior Prefecture pass multiple resolutions on shifting the runway

1978 PI -- meeting with Tokyo starts engaging with key SNAs; request subnational actors on the issue. incorporation May, 1988 US govt begins considering Iwo started conducting a survey Jima as site for FCLP drills Jan, 1989 US govt and GOJ agree to move However, drills will be held on FCLP drills usually held at Atsugi facilities on the mainland, including Naval Air Facility to Iwo Jima. Atsugi and MCAS Iwakuni, in the case of inclement weather.

1992 PI -- request MOU on shifting MCAS Iwakuni The product of many years of incorporation runway 1km seaward; responding petitions, discussions, feasibility to local preferences studies, etc. Iwakuni City and Yamaguchi Prefectural governments welcomed it Apr 15, 1996 PI -- request SACO Interim Report - transfer of (Yamaguchi Prefecture acquiesces, incorporation KC-130s from MCAS Futenma to Iwakuni City initially opposes, but MCAS Iwakuni announced; burden soon acquiesces. -- see below) on MCAS Iwakuni kept low by transferring Harrier unit out. Apr 15, 1996 Tensions -- SN leader Yamaguchi Governor indicates "as long as the relocation doesn't behavior conditional acceptance of transfer. reinforce the base." However, the Iwakuni City government is against. May 2, 1996 Tensions -- SN leader Iwakuni Mayor indicates "as long as the relocation doesn't behavior conditional acceptance reinforce the base." May 11, PI -- request Harrier Jets retured to the US ahead 1996 incorporation of schedule. Jun 8/9, 1996 Tensions -- protests Protest rally opposing the KC-130 4,000 Iwakuni residents. transfer Jul 12, 1996 PI -- request Public survey (not a referendum) But some willing to acquiesce to incorporation shows that 62% of 1910 relieve burden on Okinawa respondents oppose the K-130 transfer Aug 4, 1996 Tensions -- Sekinari NII is elected Governor of Nii was the LDP-supported elections/public vote Yamaguchi candidate, and the SACO transfers were one of the outstanding issues. Result suggests that it was not a particularly big issue across the prefecture.

12 Date Type of Indicator Incident/ Further details development Dec 2, 1996 SACO Final Report Jan 27, 1997 Tensions -- SN leader Iwakuni Mayor KIFUNE accepts On the condition that it does not behavior transfer of one KC-130 from reinforce/strengthen the functions of Futenma. the base. Feb 25, 1997 Tensions -- SN leader Yamaguchi Governor NII and Yu is a town near Iwakuni. Iwakuni behavior another local SN leader (Mayor of Mayor KIFUNE is also at press Yu) accept the KC-130 transfer conference on the issue. Jun 2, 1997 Construction of new MCAS no protest actions recorded, whether Iwakuni runway begins from public or local govt. Jan 12, 1998 US military begins a week of FCLP Less than a day's notice given to drills at Iwakuni, Yokota (Tokyo) residents, resulting in complaints and Atsugi (Kanagawa) from locals; officials request for at least one week notice. Dec 3, 1998 Governor NII emphasizes condition The source was apparently from the of not increasing the burden on Pentagon. Iwakuni following new report of rumor that MCAS Futenma would be relocated to the Japanese mainland. 1999 Tensions -- Katsusuke IHARA is elected Mayor No base-related controversies at this elections/public vote of Iwakuni. time. Sep 18, 2000 FCLP drills again held at Iwakuni Moved from Iwo Jima because of the weather; Iwakuni officials again given notice only on the day of, rather than the one week requested. Jan 29, 2001 Iwakuni and four other municipal Officials of Yamato and Ayase in governments request that the US , Misawa in military moves FCLP drills to Iwo , Fussa in western Jima. Tokyo and Iwakuni in Yamaguchi Prefecture. Jan 25, 2002 Iwakuni Mayor IHARA acquiesces Ihara accepts, Yamaguchi and town to transfer of 8 Ch-53D helicopters of Yuu also accept. (Reason: (and 180 personnel) from Hawaii to following 9/11 terrorist attack, Iwakuni. needed for humanitarian support in case of emergency) May~Jun, Yamaguchi (and other sub-national (Influences: Ishihara in Tokyo, the 2002 actors) start submitting formal joint airport plan in Okinawa) requests to make the Iwakuni base a joint civilian-military one, as it had been in the early years after WW2. Dec, 2002 PI -- request GOJ budgets for feasibility studies incorporation for joint airport end, 2002 US govt and GOJ launch DPRI talks Feb 6, 2003 US-Japan began talks on civilian use of Iwakuni runway Mar, 2003 Governor NII sets up task force in prefectural govt to deal with security matters. Apr 1, 2003 Tensions -- Iwakuni Mayor IHARA reelected. No controversy over MCAS Iwakuni elections/public vote at this point

July 15-17 US govt and GOJ have working News reports note that SCC 2004, level talks on realignment (DPRI); considering transfer of CVW-5 from also took place in Mar, 2004 Atsugi to Iwakuni

13 Date Type of Indicator Incident/ Further details development July 27, 2004 Newsmedia reports that US govt A Yomiuri OPED from one week has withdrawn most of its specific before noted that one of those proposals for realignment in Japan, proposals was "the relocation and plans to renegotiate the agreement. integration of U.S. bases in Japan, including the relocation of Atsugi Air Facility in Kanagawa Prefecture to Iwakuni Air Base in Yamaguchi Prefecture and the integration of Futenma Air Station in into nearby ." Feb 19~, 2+2 meetings on the realignment 2005 (DPRI). Mar 8, 2005 Tensions -- SN leader Iwakuni City officials try to behavior confirm rumors about the transfers to Iwakuni, and express dissatisfaction with Tokyo's actions and secrecy. Mar 16, 2005 US govt and GOJ begin more talks including the transfer of Carrier Wing on realignment 5 (CVW-5) to Iwakuni. Apr 17, 2005 US govt and GOJ agree to move the Iwojima FCLP closer to the Japanese main islands May, 2005 Tensions -- SN leader May 2005, representative of behavior (NB: not Iwakuni business community political leader, signals willingness to accept business) transfer in exchange for economic benefits. Jun, 2005 Tensions -- SN leader Iwakuni assembly passes resolution behavior against any transfers. July, 2005 Tensions -- SN leader Mayor IHARA conveys opposition behavior to transfer to Iwakuni Commander Col. Michael Dyer. Aug, 2005 Newsmedia reports that US and Japan are considering a floating runway for the FCLP (at/near Iwakuni) Oct 17, 2005 PI -- request US-Japan consider transfer of (to ensure no increase in burden) incorporation MSDF units from Iwakuni to Atsugi Oct 29, 2005 PI -- request DPRI Interim Report (CVW-5 key sub-national actors in Yamaguchi incorporation transfer to Iwakuni, MSDF units and Iwakuni express discontent at not transferred out and KC-130s to having been consulted; Marine Corps Kanoya SDF facility; civilian also opposed. flights to be reopened) Nov 15, Tensions -- SN leader Yamaguchi Governor NII argues that it amounts to transferring 2005 behavior opposition to CVW-5 transfer noise from Atsugi to Iwakuni, and requests that GOJ explain the move to citizens Nov 16, Tensions -- SN leader Iwakuni Mayor IHARA rejects Two main reasons: 2005 behavior transfer of MSDF units to Atsugi (1) MSDF unit transfer means decline in city tax revenues (2) Transfer of CVW-5 increases burden on Iwakuni

14 Date Type of Indicator Incident/ Further details development Jan 16, 2006 PI -- meeting with FM Taro ASO visits the region and Also visits Iwakuni and meets with SNAs meets with Yamaguchi Gov. NII Iwakuni Mayor IHARA. and Hiroshima Gov. FUJITA Jan 29, 2006 Tensions -- SN leader re: DPRI proposals Iwakuni Mayor holds briefing with behavior 200 attendees, suggests referendum. Some are opposed, recommend accepting base Jan 29, 2006 During further talks in Hawaii, US reasons govt tells Japan that it wants the (1) infrastructure at Kanoya KC-130s at Iwakuni not Kanoya insufficient (2) want Marine assets / functions concentrated at their bases. Mar 12, 2006 Tensions -- Iwakuni holds non-binding Backed by more than half of Iwakuni elections/public vote referendum on the transfers City (51.3% of eligible voters); but also opposed by business community (announced Feb 2, after citizens (on Feb 20, the business community groups organized a petition that even set up a group protesting the collected 60,000 signatures = more referendum). than half the city's voting population) Result: 83% opposed, but low turnout of 58%, and questioned b/c of subsequent merger. In fact, on March 7, the newsmedia reported that 6 of the 7 towns that merged with Iwakuni acquiesced to the transfers in return for economic development. Apr 13-14, PI -- request More realignment talks: KC-130 8 CH-53D helicopters to be 2006 incorporation transfer to Kanoya dropped. US transferred to Guam (to maintain also drops opposition to civilian same level of burden on Iwakuni) terminal being built within the boundaries of MCAS Iwakuni. Apr 15, 2006 PI -- meeting with GOJ representative (Hiroshima SNAs DFAA branch) meets Iwakuni representatives to explain the Roadmap plans Apr 23, 2006 Tensions -- Iwakuni Mayor IHARA reelected Following merger of municipalities; elections/public vote (54,144 to 23,264 votes for second it appears that a majority still support place Taro AJIMURA) his position opposing the transfer of units from Atsugi and Okinawa. Apr 28, 2006 PI -- meeting with JDA Director General KITAHARA SNAs and Hiroshima branch chief, amongst others, visit Iwakuni to explain how the burden will not be increased. May 2, 2006 Roadmap announced. KC-130 to Ihara remains opposed; but Governor Iwakuni, CH helis to Guam; US has NII and prefectural assembly open to dropped opposition to civilian talks, depending on Tokyo agreeing terminal within the military facility. to specific requests re: Atago Hills and FLCP drills. May 2, 2006 PI -- meeting with JDA Vice director MORIYA meets IHARA notes that Iwakuni will SNAs with Iwakuni Mayor IHARA in continue to support the alliance, but Tokyo; to explain the agreement that the burden is excessive and seek understanding.

15 Date Type of Indicator Incident/ Further details development May 12, 16, PI -- meeting with representatives of the JDA go to the meeting on the 24th is with the 24, 2006 SNAs Iwakuni to explain the realignment Kawakudari district? and seek understanding and cooperation. May, 2006 Tensions -- SN leader Iwakuni Mayor IHARA refuses to Contrasts with Yamaguchi Governor behavior acquiesce and cooperate on transfer NII, who is flexible and recommends of CVW-5. consultation/negotiation with the govt and prefectural assembly. May/Jun, PI -- request JDA freezes funding for new 2006 incorporation (lack Iwakuni City Hall building thereof) July 7, 28 PI -- meeting with Iwakuni Mayor IHARA visits At second meeting (July 28), GOJ 2006 SNAs Tokyo and proposes that the GOJ comments that the discussion group sets up a discussion group on the is a questionable idea b/c it wouldn't issue of the US military base have set objectives. alignment Aug 2, 2006 Yamaguchi Prefecture vice- The housing project is in the red. governor presents ultimatum about Originally intended for public sale, Atagoyama area to IHARA. but costs blew out and as part of the DPRI, the Prefecture and City approached the GOJ to buy it to develop housing for US military. Oct, 2006 Tensions -- Iwakuni municipal assembly Citizens give conservatives that elections/public vote elections support the transfer a majority in the municipal assembly. Shows that IHARA is losing support. Nov 8, 2006 PI -- meeting with DFAA Director(?) visits Iwakuni SNAs and speaks with Mayor IHARA Dec 20, 2006 GOJ suspends funding for Iwakuni City Hall in budget for 2007 financial year. Jan 26, 2007 PI -- meeting with Head of Hiroshima branch of the SNAs DFAA explains to Iwakuni City Assembly the realignment Feb 9, 2007 PI -- request Subsidies bill. Cabinet approves bill But removes Iwakuni from list of incorporation on 4 stages of subsidies for receiving municipalities, due to communities affected by opposition from IHARA. In March, realignment. the Iwakuni City assembly passes a resolution for conditional support, provided FCLP drills are not permanently hosted at Iwakuni. Feb 26, 2007 PI -- meeting with Another meeting between Iwakuni SNAs Mayor IHARA and Hiroshima DFAA head (月橋晴信) Mar 23, 2007 Tensions -- SN leader The Iwakuni City Assembly passes The assembly supports the transfers behavior a resolution on the Realignment of but emphasises that GOJ should US forces in Japan. demonstrate that the FCLP drills will never be permanently based at Iwakuni. Apr 19, 2007 PI -- meeting with Representatives of Hiroshima In May, it is the deputy mayor that May 17, SNAs DFAA again meet with Iwakuni they meet. 2007 leaders on the realignment. May 23, PI -- request Japanese Diet (Upper House) 2007 incorporation passes the subsidies bill

16 Date Type of Indicator Incident/ Further details development June 1, 2007 PI -- meeting with DFAA head, KITAHARA and SNAs Mayor IHARA discuss the realignment as it affects Iwakuni June 6, 2007 PI -- meeting with IHARA visits Tokyo to speak with SNAs Minister of Defense KYUMA. Jul 4, 2007 PI -- request GOJ makes civ-mil airport IHARA opposed. incorporation (lack conditional on CVW-5 transfer Yamaguchi Gov and Iwakuni thereof) chamber of commerce pressure IHARA to change his stance. Jul 12, 2007 PI -- meeting with Head of Hiroshima DFAA meets SNAs with Mayor IHARA and others. Jul 19, 2007 Yamaguchi Governor NII meets On July 28, the Iwakuni City with IHARA and sets deadline for Business and Commerce Association decision about the joint airport and calls on IHARA to accept the transfer the Atago Hills development. of the aircraft in order to guarantee that the airport is opened. Jul 31, 2007 Iwakuni City Assembly spe. Committee urges IHARA to accept the transfer. Aug 2, 2007 Iwakuni Mayor IHARA meets with But NII is now on the side of the GOJ Governor NII re: how to proceed with request for joint civilian- military airport. Aug 16, PI -- meeting with The Hiroshima DFAA explains to 2007 SNAs Iwakuni the special measures law Aug 30, (cabinet order) that will help 2007 smoothly implement the realignmnet Oct 16, 2007 PI -- meeting with Mayor IHARA visits Tokyo, speaks SNAs with MoD at MOD, bureau chief and deputy chief of the 地方協力 局, bureau chief and deputy chief of the 地方協力局, Nov, 2007 Ihara continues to try to negotiate Raises the idea of changes to the with GOJ SOFA Dec 26, 2018 Mayor IHARA announces resignation Feb 10, 2008 Mayoral election, IHARA having FUKUDA promptly declares support, resigned in Dec 2017 in a bid to use and with Tokyo sets up a working the necessary election as the final group on the realignment (NB: vote on the transfer. He loses to IHARA had proposed a similar LDP-supported Yoshihiko working group, but GOJ refused to FUKUDA. consider it) at the time

Feb 14, 2008 PI -- meeting with FUKUDA visits MOD and MOFA Feb 26, 2008 SNAs and greets the two ministers. Mar 12, 2008 Tensions -- SN leader Iwakuni Mayor Yoshihiko behavior FUKUDA meets Minister of Defense Ishiba and formally accepts transfer Apr-May, Groups and districts within Iwakuni 2008 present their requests and views on the CVW-5 transfer to the City govt

17 Date Type of Indicator Incident/ Further details development June 12, Tensions -- SN leader Iwakuni City Mayor FUKUDA, on behalf of people of Iwakuni, 2008 behavior with Governor NII, present local whose views and requests re: CVW-5 requests/demands to GOJ transfer they have collected over the previous two months. Aug 3, 2007 Tensions -- Governor NII reelected in elections/public vote Yamaguchi Oct 31, 2008 Tensions -- SN leader Iwakuni City presents demands re: Including not having FCLP drills behavior CVW-5 to Tokyo. permanently based at Iwakuni. (total of 43 demands) Nov 19, PI -- request GOJ replies to motion for measures which is discussed in the Iwakuni 2008 incorporation passed by Iwakuni City assembly City assembly on Dec Dec 19, 2008 Tensions -- SN leader Iwakuni Mayor FUKUDA has behavior discussions with Governor NII re: measures for safety/wellbeing of people around the base Jan 26, 2009 Governor NII visits ANA President President YAMAMOTO is positive Mineo YAMAMOTO at ANA head re: operating flights from Iwakuni office. Feb 16, 2009 PI -- request CCS Takeo KWAMURA incorporation announces that Iwakuni will resume civilian flights by 2012 Jul, 2009 Iwakuni residents sue Dep. Of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in effort to stop Atago Hills sale for US military housing Dec 18, 2009 Tensions -- SN leader Yamaguchi Prefecture sets aside behavior Atago Hills proposal, because it fears Iwakuni being considered for Futenma Relocation (DPJ government) Feb 25, 2010 PI -- request GOJ reassures Iwakuni that FCLP incorporation will not be permanently based at the facility, and that Iwakuni is not being considered for Futenma relocation. Mar, 2010 Tensions -- SN leader Iwakuni City Mayor and vice- to idea of Iwakuni being a candidate behavior Mayor reiterate opposition for the FRF May 4, 2010 PI -- requestion DPJ leader HATOYAMA has no incorporation: choice but to return to the 2006 Roadmap agreement May 23, Protest rally of 5,000 people Organized by former mayor IHARA, 2010 5,000, May 29, Opening ceremony of new Iwakuni Governor NII does not attend, stating 2010 runway that "while he is glad the offshore runway will reduce noise, it also ended up being saddled with the transfer of the fighters" Aug 11, PI -- meeting with Representing Iwakuni City have discussions on realignment 2010 SNAs Chugoku/Shikoku Defense Bureau Sep 3, Sep 7, PI -- meeting with Vice Minister for Defense Kazuya Mayor IHARA/the City government 2010 SNAs SHINBA visits Iwakuni and then explains it to the people on Sep explains to the Mayor and the City 25-27 assembly the plans for the Atago Hills.

18 Date Type of Indicator Incident/ Further details development Nov 24, Governor NII and Mayor FUKUDA e.g. upgrades to sports facilities. 2010 submit to GOJ local community Governor NII notes that if GOJ requests/demands re: the Atago (MOD) does not move forward on Hills project sale. these requests, then it would be difficult to approve the sale. Jan 25, 2011 PI -- meeting with Iwakuni Mayor FUKUDA goes to SNAs Tokyo to make requests re: realignment Feb 17, 2011 PI -- meeting with Iwakuni City and Chugoku/Shikoku SNAs defense bureau have discussions on realignment. Jun 9, 2011 PI -- meeting with Iwakuni Mayor FUKUDA meets SNAs DM Kitazawa and makes request about Atago Hills project. August, 2011 MOD sets up 4 teams to restart One team for the whole relocation; stalled realignment process. one each for Futenma, US Marines to Guam and carrier drills to Mage island. Aug 10, PI -- meeting with Iwakuni City and Chugoku/Shikoku (6th meeting) 2011 SNAs defense bureau have discussions on realignment. Nov 8, 2011 Iwakuni Mayor FUKUDA explains Also explains to Iwakuni public on the plan for Atago Hills to the Nov 12-13. Iwakuni City assembly. end-Nov, Tensions -- SN leader Iwakuni Mayor FUKUDA and Officially conveyed to GOJ on Dec 2011 behavior Yamaguchi Gov. NII agree to sell 26. the Atago Hills development site to the MOD. Jan 29, 2012 Iwakuni Mayoral Election: (118,398 in constituency; 64.01% FUKUDA is reelected, over turnout rate (75,785), 75,385 valid IHARA votes; 42,257 vote counts (56.1%) for Yoshihiko FUKUDA, 30,656 (40.7%) for Katusuke IHARA) Feb 6, 2012 Following high-level discussions between US govt and GOJ, the newsmedia reports that the US is considering transferring 1,500 Marines from Futenma to Iwakuni. Only 4,700 to go to Guam.

Feb 9, 2012 Tensions -- SN leader Governor NII freezes sale of the On Feb 8, Mayor FUKUDA behavior Atago Hills project to the MOD emphasized Iwakuni's condition that unless Iwakuni is removed from the there be 'no increase in the burden' transfer list for the Marines from placed on the city. Okinawa. Feb 27-28, At further bilateral talks, the US 2012 asks again about transfer to Iwakuni. Japan rejects the idea, but also does not want them to remain in Okinawa. Mar 8, 2012 PI -- request The US and Japan agree not to incorporation transfer more Marines from Okinawa to MCAS Iwakuni. Mar 15, 2012 Tensions -- SN leader Yamaguchi Governor NII indicates b/c Iwakuni was withdrawn as behavior acceptance of sale of Atago Hills location for transfer of Marines. project to MOD

19 Date Type of Indicator Incident/ Further details development Mar 22, 2012 PI -- meeting with Yamabuchi Gov. NII and Iwakuni SNAs Mayor FUKUDA visit Tokyo, and emphasize again to MoFA GENBA and MoD TANAKA that an increase in the burden on Iwakuni will not be accepted. May 22, PI -- meeting with Iwakuni City and Chugoku/Shikoku (7th meeting) 2012 SNAs defense bureau have discussions on realignment. June 22, Iwakuni City assembly Following Osprey crashes in Florida. 2012 unanimously passes resolution Japanese govt puts Osprey opposing Osprey deployment. deployment on hold. Jun 29, 2012 US govt and GOJ agree to suspend test flights of Osprey until more information known. July 23, 2012 First group of Osprey arrive at Iwakuni. Aug 9, 2012 PI -- meeting with Vice minister for Defense SNAs Nagashima visits Iwakuni to explain about the Osprey. Oct 29, 2012 PI -- request Iwakuni Kintaikyo passenger incorporation terminal completed. Dec 13, 2012 Iwakuni Kintaikyo Airport officially opened to commercial flights. Jan 22, 2013 Announcement of delay in transfer On Jan 25, Parliamentary Vice of CVW-5. Minister of Defense SATO visits Iwakuni to inform leaders about the delay. Feb 22, 2013 Iwakuni City and Chugoku/Shikoku 8th meeting defense bureau have discussions on realignment. Jun 7, 2013 PI -- request US govt confirms that training on I.e. Confirm that Iwakuni will not be incorporation Iwo Jima will continue until Japan the permanent host; and that Japan finds an appropriate site. has not found any other appropriate site. Oct, 2013 PI -- request KC-130 to shift to Iwakuni by Fukuda intially resists, because little incorporation 2014. MSDF to remain in Iwakuni. progress has been made on Futenma in Okinawa. Eventually relents. Dec 9, 2013 Tensions -- SN leader Iwakuni Mayor FUKUDA accepts After spending a few months behavior transfer of KC-130 planes. examining the issue, including a visit to Okinawa. Aug 26, KC-130 unit transfer to Iwakuni is No protest actions recorded, whether 2014 completed. 15 KC-130 aircraft, and from public or local govt. 870 personnel and their families. Sep 18, 2014 PI -- request CCS SUGA visits Iwakuni and At this point, subsidies are provided incorporation explains GOJ plan to expand to municipalities only. Yamaguchi subsidies for cooperation to Governor Tsugumasa MURAOKA prefectural governments. reacts positively. Oct 27, 2014 Tensions -- Iwakuni City assembly elections -- Only 10/32 elected had expressed elections/public vote politicians opposed to transfer of opposition; thus majority is likely to CVW-5 fail to gain majority be supportive of Mayor FUKUDA's stance. Turnout of the election also low at 57.4% of eligible votes. Jan 24, 2016 Tensions -- elections / FUKUDA wins mayoral election by record low turnout, at 47.5% public 39,074 to 14,820 votes

20 Table A4: Levels of Tensions in Nago City and Okinawa Prefecture, 1990-2015

Year Indicator Summary Overall level of tensions (1-5) 1990 SN leader behavior LOW 1 (1) Governor ŌTA cooperates on land lease renewal.

Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 1991 SN leader behavior LOW 1 (1) Governor ŌTA makes formal request for returns Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 1992 SN leader behavior LOW 1 (1) Governor ŌTA /other SN leaders do not voice opposition to announcement of land returns, although they comment on the fact that these returns are not 'new' Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 1993 SN leader behavior NA 1 Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 1994 SN leader behavior LOW 1 (1) Jun: following incorporation of three base-related requests into bilateral agenda, ŌTA and other prefectural officials visit US to call for implementation of these requests. Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 1995 SN leader behavior MODERATE~HIGH 4 (1) Oct: Following rape incident, Governor ŌTA refuses to cooperate on land lease renewal. Protests HIGH (1) Sep~: Multiple protests in relation to rape incident. Elections/Referenda NA 1996 SN leader behavior HIGH 5 (SACO (1) Governor ŌTA carries out refusal to cooperate on base report) lease issue; fights the suit that MURAYAMA lodged against him, despite knowing he will lose. (2) Jan: OPG releases its Base Return Action Programme; (3) from Apr: Multiple local assemblies pass resolutions against SACO interim agreement. Protests LOW~MODERATE (1) multiple protest actions, but on smaller-scale than People's Rally in Oct the previous year. (2) Apr~Jun: Shoichi CHIBANA wins court case and is granted access to his land at the Sobe Communications site, where he holds a picnic as a protest action.

21 Year Indicator Summary Overall level of tensions (1-5) Elections/Referenda MODERATE (1) Referendum on 'heliport' -- 90% of votes against, but low turnout, thus this represents just 54% of eligible voters. 1997 SN leader behavior MODERATE~HIGH 4 (1) Governor ŌTA continues his refusal to cooperate on the land leases issue, although impact on alliance is minimized when Diet passes Land Lease Law amendment in Apr. (2) Dec: Following the referendum, Nago Mayor HIGA acquiesces to the FRF, then resigns as mayor. Protests LOW (1) Small protests in relation to 25th anniversary of reversion and Mayor HIGA's decision

Elections/Referenda MODERATE (1) Dec: Nago referendum on 'heliport'; as per prefectural- wide vote -- 97% of vote cast against, but low turnout meant that this represents just 53% of eligible voters. 1998 SN leader behavior MODERATE~HIGH 3 (1) Governor ŌTA rejects FRF, with Nago Mayor KISHIMOTO deferring to his decision. (2) But in Nov, the gubernatorial election is won by Keiichi INAMINE, who is willing to accept the relocation conditionally Protests NA (1) No major protests

Elections/Referenda MODERATE (1) Feb: LDP-affiliated Tateo KISHIMOTO elected; though he defers to ŌTA on the FRF (2) Nov: LDP-affiliated Keiichi INAMINE elected governor, replacing ŌTA.

1999 SN leader behavior LOW~MODERATE 2 (1) 2 municipal assemblies pass resolutions against the FRF, but 1 passes a resolution in favor. (2) Both Governor INAMINE and Mayor KISHIMOTO are willing to cooperate, if particular conditions were met. Protests NA (1) No major protests Elections/Referenda NA 2000 SN leader behavior LOW 1 (1) Okinawa's SN leaders cooperates with Tokyo on FRF (2) Urasoe Mayor Miyagi reverses his decision on allowing the Nago port facility to be relocated to Urasoe Port.

Protests LOW (1) small protests staged at G-8 summit, which was held in Okinawa. Elections/Referenda NA 2001 SN leader behavior LOW 1 (1) as in 2000

22 Year Indicator Summary Overall level of tensions (1-5) Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 2002 SN leader behavior LOW~MODERATE 2 (1) partial cooperation (no major protest against 2002 Basic Plan, but OPG refuses to take responsibility for Environmental Impact Assessment) (2) INAMINE keeps pushing for "15-year limit" and refused to cooperate fully unless this condition was addressed. Protests NA Elections/Referenda LOW (1) Feb: KISHIMOTO reelected as Nago Mayor. (2) Nov: INAMINE relected as Governor. 2003 SN leader behavior LOW~MODERATE 3 (1) Partial cooperation (OPG refuses to take responsibility for EIA, so JDA ends up taking charge of it.) Protests No major protest actions recorded Elections/Referenda LOW~MODERATE (1) Apr: Yoichi IHA is elected mayor of Ginowan 2004 SN leader behavior LOW~MODERATE 3 (1) sub-national leaders speak out in relation to the helicopter crash at Okinawa International University, though this does not translate into further action re: the Basic Plan (2) No actions recorded in relation to the civil society activists that begin disrupting the EIA process in Sep 2004

Protests MODERATE (1) Aug: small protests in response to CH-53D crash. (2) Sep: 30,000 gather to protest SOFA/US presense. (3) Sep: Civil society actors began physically disrupting the EIA process Elections/Referenda NA 2005 SN leader behavior MODERATE~HIGH 4 (DPRI (1) 2 assembly resolutions against FRF following release of interim DPRI interim report (Oct); report) (2) Nago Mayor KISHIMOTO starts pushing for for offshore shift as well. Protests MODERATE (1) Scattered protests in response to leaks/reports that facilities will relocate to their area. (2) There are also protests and praise in response to the DPRI interim report. Elections/Referenda NA 2006 SN leader behavior MODERATE (conditional cooperation) 3 (1) Apr: JDA Director General and mayors of Nago and Ginoza sign basic agreement on V-shaped runway plan to be released in May. (2) May: Governor INAMINE sign basic agreement on V- shaped runway plan, but later argued that he was only agreeing to it as a basis for further negotiations.

23 Year Indicator Summary Overall level of tensions (1-5) Protests MODERATE (1) Mar: 35,000 strong protest in Ginowan

Elections/Referenda LOW~MODERATE (1) Jan: LDP-backed Yoshikazu Shimabukuro wins Nago mayoral election. He is willing to negotiate but wants modifications to plan. (2) Nov: LDP-backed Hirokazu NAKAIMA won the gubernatorial election; also demands modifications 2007 SN leader behavior MODERATE~HIGH 3 (1) Governor NAKAIMA continues resistance, insisting minor changes be made to plan. In Mar, he refuses to approve the EIA plan submitted by Tokyo. (2) Other municipal leaders less opposed. Protests No major protest actions recorded Elections/Referenda NA 2008 SN leader behavior MODERATE~HIGH 4 (1) Governor NAKAIMA continues to insist that the runways of the FRF be moved further offshore. (2) Jul: Okinawa Prefectural Assembly passes resolution opposing the plans for the FRF. Protests LOW~MODERATE (1) Rape incident involving underage girl sparked another round of protests in Feb.

Elections/Referenda LOW~MODERATE (1) Jun: in the prefectural assembly elections, the LDP- block that supports Governor NAKAIMA loses its majority. 2009 SN leader behavior HIGH 4 (1) Aug: The effect of the general election is that all SN leaders in Okinawa shift to oppose the V-shaped runway plan for the FRF. Protests MODERATE (1) 20,000 strong protest ahead of President Obama's visit to Japan Elections/Referenda MODERATE~HIGH (1) Aug: General election. The LDP loses its majority in a landslide victory by the DPJ. The election is not just about Okinawa, but DPJ leader Hatoyama had pledged to review the Futenma agreement. 2010 SN leader behavior MODERATE~HIGH 5 (1) Okinawa's SN leaders start telling GOJ representatives that they are no longer willing to accept the FRF in Okinawa

Protests HIGH (1) Apr: 90,000 people gather to protest in Okinawa (2) May: 17,000 surround Futenma in protest

24 Year Indicator Summary Overall level of tensions (1-5) Elections/Referenda HIGH (1) Jan: Susumu INAMINE elected Mayor of Nago. Stringently opposed to Futenma relocation within Okinawa. (2) Nov: NAKAIMA relected in gubernatorial election after taking a stance against the relocation.

2011 SN leader behavior MODERATE~HIGH 4 (1) NAKAIMA questions GOJ sincerity re: transfer of training (2) Jul: Prefectural assembly adopts resolution against Osprey deployment (3) Despite local protests, in Dec, NAKAIMA accepts GOJ's submission of an environmental assessment report, noting that he is obliged to go along with the administrative procedure. Protests LOW (1) No major protests over the course of the year.

Elections/Referenda NA 2012 SN leader behavior MODERATE~HIGH 5 (1) Series of Osprey accidents around the world spark low levels of protest (2) Oct: Prefectural assembly adopts resolution opposing deployment of Osprey (3) NAKAIMA makes requests/demands of GOJ that the Osprey deployment be reviewed, and that MCAS Futenma be moved out of the prefecture. Protests HIGH (1) Sep: crowd of 100,000 protest in Ginowan against Osprey. (2) Other small protest rallies are held throughout the year in response to each small development (e.g. deployment of Osprey units) Elections/Referenda MODERATE~HIGH (1) Feb: Ginowan election result favorable for GOJ (winner pledged only that Futenma would not remain in the city). (2) Jun: Prefectural assembly election result unfavorable for GOJ, as pro-NAKAIMA block fails to regain majority.

2013 SN leader behavior MODERATE 4 (1) Jul: OPJ, Okinawa prefectural assembly, and Ginowan city protested Osprey deployment once again. (2) Aug: Governor NAKAIMA submits petition for MCAS Futenma to be relocated outside the prefecture. (3) Nov: Nago Mayor and assembly both reaffirm opposition to relocation within Okinawa. Conversely, the local chapter of the LDP, LDP Diet representatives etc etc reverse their stances to support the V-shaped plan. (4) Dec: NAKAIMA approves GOJ application for landfill permit in exchange for a number of concessions. Protests LOW (1) Jan: one protest with 4,000 people organized in Tokyo; but is met with counter protestsors (2) Other small rallies over the course of the year.

25 Year Indicator Summary Overall level of tensions (1-5) Elections/Referenda NA 2014 SN leader behavior MODERATE~HIGH 5 (1) Okinawa prefectural assemby, Nago mayor INAMINE, mayor ONAGA, Naha municipal assembly all take issue with NAKAIMA's decision (2) Feb: Okinawa prefectural assembly set up Article 100 commission to challenge NAKAIMA's decision. (3) Jun/Jul: ONAGA decided to run in gubernatorial election pledging to oppose Futenma's relocation within the prefecture. (4) Nago Mayor INAMINE spends most of year refusing permits for GOJ to use Nago facilities for construction. Protests LOW~MODERATE (1) several protests involving a few thousand people each took place over the year. Elections/Referenda HIGH (1) Jan: anti-agreement INAMINE is relected in Nago mayoral election (2) Nov: voters choose ONAGA over NAKAIMA as governor by margin of 100,000 votes. (3) Dec: non-LDP candidates win all four single-district seats in general election (LDP politicians retain seats through PR vote) 2015 SN leader behavior MODERATE~HIGH 5 (1) New Governor ONAGA pledges to do everything in his power to oppose construction. E.g. he set up a process to question the legality of NAKAIMA's decision and revoked the land reclaimation permit. (2) Okinawa prefectural assembly passes an ordinance aimed at restricting the use of outside soil in the construction of the FRF (including the landfill). Protests LOW~MODERATE (1) No major protest rallies reported, but the low level 'interfering' protestors around the bases intensify. (Physical interference) Elections/Referenda NA

26 Table A5: Levels of Preference Incorporation in Nago City and Okinawa Prefecture, 1990- 2015

Indicator Summary Overall level of PI (1-5) 1990 Meeting SNAs NA 1 Breadth of SNAs NA Request incorporation NA (Ota decided to approve lease renewal on behalf of anti-base landowners.) 1991 Meeting SNAs LOW 1 (1) ŌTA travelled to Washington DC and hand delivered a letter to the State and Defense Departments Breadth of SNAs LOW Request Incorporation NA 1992 Meeting SNAs NA 2 Breadth of SNAs NA Request incorporation LOW (1) Sites earmarked for return had been announced years before, so nothing new. 1993 Meeting SNAs NA 1 Breadth of SNAs NA Request Incorporation NA 1994 Meeting SNAs NA 1 Breadth of SNAs NA Request Incorporation LOW (1) Japan asked US to put land returns on agenda

1995 Meeting SNAs LOW 1 (1) Jan: JDA Director General Tokuichiro Tamazawa presents Govenor ŌTA with plan to scale back U.S. bases in the prefecture (2) Nov: PM MURAYAMA met Governor ŌTA and informed him that GOJ would sue him over the land lease issue. Breadth of SNAs NA Request Incorporation LOW (1) GOJ presented OPG with plan to scale back the bases. (2) GOJ and US govt set up SACO to ameliorate tensions set in motion by the rape incident. (3) GOJ took ŌTA to court to compel his cooperation on the land lease issue 1996 Meeting SNAs MODERATE~HIGH 2 (1) as part of the SACO process (2) PM HASHIMOTO also met with Governor ŌTA several times, in both Tokyo and Okinawa (Funabashi (1999) noted that HASHIMOTO visited Okinawa more than any PM before him) Breadth of SNAs LOW

27 Indicator Summary Overall level of PI (1-5) Request Incorporation LOW (1) Standoff over land leases continued. (2) SACO returns announced, including MCAS Futenma, but replacement facilities needed 1997 Meeting SNAs MODERATE 2 (1) GOJ representatives met with Okinawan representatives several times (2) GOJ created a task group for the FRF. Breadth of SNAs MODERATE (1) Governor, mayors, Nago citizens

Request Incorporation LOW (1) no change to agreement; but GOJ began looking into economic measures. 1998 Meeting SNAs LOW~MODERATE 3 (1) PM Obuchi met governor-elect INAMINE following Nov. election

Breadth of SNAs LOW (1) appears to have been INAMINE only.

Request Incorporation MODERATE (1) Cabinet approved special economic measures for Okinawa (2) Obuchi agreed to try to work towards INAMINE's two conditions 1999 Meeting SNAs LOW 3 (1) One formal meeting, at the Diet building in Tokyo, in June. (2) Cabinet resoulution in December suggests that discussions took place over the course of the year. Breadth of SNAs MODERATE (1) Govenor and several other politicians at June meeting.

Request incorporation LOW~MODERATE (1) Cabinet passed resolution endorsing relocation to Henoko and INAMINE's two conditions 2000 Meeting SNAs MODERATE~HIGH 3 (1) 4 meetings of joint GOJ/OPG/Nago City panel on the FRF. Breadth of SNAs MODERATE (1) Governor, mayors of affected municipalites

Request incorporation LOW~MODERATE (1) GOJ appeared willing to consider INAMINE's two conditions. 2001 Meeting SNAs: MODERATE~HIGH 4 (1) 4 meetings of joint panel Breadth of SNAs MODERATE~HIGH (1) Governor, mayors of affected municipalites (2) Business/Industry leaders also in contact either directly or through governor/mayors.

28 Indicator Summary Overall level of PI (1-5) Request incorporation MODERATE (1) GOJ intention was to develop plans for the FRF based on local preferences 2002 Meeting SNAs MODERATE 2 (1) final meeting of joint panel (2) GOJ and US govt launch DPRI, which doesn't involve Okinawa realignment yet. Breadth of SNAs MODERATE~HIGH (1) Governor, mayors of affected municipalites (2) Business/Industry leaders also in contact either directly or through governor/mayors Request incorporation LOW~MODERATE (1) ultimately, 2002 Basic Plan did not reflect preferences of Mayor KISHIMOTO and his local backers (2) According to Takahashi ABE argues, mainland business/industry actors had highjacked the process 2003 Meeting SNAs LOW~MODERATE 2 (1) disagreements over implementation of EIA for Basic Plan Breadth of SNAs LOW~MODERATE (1) Okinawa governor, mayors of affected municipalities Request incorporation LOW~MODERATE (1) No changes to the agreement during this period. (2) GOJ still appeared intent on implementing the 2002 plan. 2004 Meeting SNAs LOW 1 (1) Unclear whether any significant meetings took place between Tokyo and Okinawa's SNAs (2) DPRI negotiations took place primarily at international level Breadth of SNAs NA Request incorporation LOW~MODERATE (1) GOJ stopped trying to implement 2002 Basic Plan (2) US gov and GOJ started renegotiating Okinawa realignment (within DPRI framework) (3) Negotiators chose to focus on some local preferences over others. 2005 Meeting SNAs MODERATE 2 (1) State-state negotiations are primary, but JDA Director General Yoshinori Ono also discussed plans unofficially with key SNAs in the lead up to the Interim agreement in Oct. (2) In Dec, there were also formal talks with SNAs, where SN leaders were able to relate their preferences. Breadth of SNAs LOW~MODERATE (1) Okinawa governor, Nago mayor, mayors of other affected municipalities Request incorporation LOW~MODERATE (1) allies abandoned the 2002 Basic Plan, but new plan incorporated some local preferences.

29 Indicator Summary Overall level of PI (1-5) 2006 Meeting SNAs MODERATE 3 (1) Met to discuss the updated Okinawa realignment plans and the develop concessions/modify where possible (2) Two mayors were reported to have agreed to the V- shaped runway plan ahead of the May announcement of the Roadmap. Breadth of SNAs MODERATE (1) Governor and mayors of affected localities (Nago, Ginoza) Request incorporation MODERATE (1) runway changed based on local actor requests (2) mayor and governor's requests not incorporated (3) Many more small changes to agreement that were specific to particular localities. 2007 Meeting SNAs MODERATE 3 (1) Tokyo representatives met with Okinawa SNAs at several times for a range of discussions. Breath of SNAs MODERATE (1) Governor and mayors of affected localities (Nago, Ginoza, Kin, HIGAshi) were all involved in at least one of the meetings (2) This suggests that contact was maintained with all. Request incorporation LOW~MODERATE (1) subsidy bill passed, but conditional; (2) Koizumi stopped GOJ efforts to compromise

2008 Meeting with SNAs LOW 2 (1) LDP mired in scandal, distracted from issue (2) Opposition DPJ leader Hatoyama visits Okinawa in May 2008 to support party candidates for upcoming Prefectural Assembly elections Breadth of SNAs NA Request incorporation LOW (1) With LDP losing support and DPJ rapidly gaining it, the LDP govt and the US govt specifically sign the Guam agreement in order to prevent successive governments from changing it. 2009 Meeting SNAs LOW 1 (1) as per 2008 (2) Nov: following the election, FM OKADA visited Okinawa to meet SN leaders to discuss MCAS Futenma Breadth of SNAs NA Request incorporation LOW (1) Guam agreement ratified

2010 Meeting SNAs MODERATE 1 (1) A few meetings with Okinawa's SN leaders. However, different leaders from previous as DPJ attempts to find a different solution. (2) DPJ leaders also meet SN leaders from other jurisdictions (esp. Tokunoshima) as Hatoyama attempts to move MCAS Futenma outside of Okinawa.

30 Indicator Summary Overall level of PI (1-5) Breadth of SNAs LOW~MODERATE (1) Governor, Mayors

Request incorporation LOW (1) Hatoyama returned to agreement on MCAS Futenma. (2) Local preferences have shifted such that the agreement is less reflective of them. 2011 Meeting SNAs MODERATE 2 (1) 2 meetings in Jan, one to discuss Gimbaru land return (2) several meetings in December. Breadth of SNAs LOW~MODERATE (1) Involved NAKAIMA and officials from relevant municipalities Request incorporation LOW~MODERATE (1): 1 land return (Gimbaru Training Area) (2) GOJ restarted stalled implementation process 2012 Meeting SNAs MODERATE 2 (1) At least 4 meetings over the course of the year. Breadth of SNAs LOW (1) Governor NAKAIMA

Request incorporation LOW (1) Delinkage announcement opens possibility of further delays. 2013 Meeting SNAs HIGH 3 (1) New ABE govt makes multiple approaches to Okinawa's SN leaders: Diet members, members of local LDP chapter, governor Breadth of SNAs MODERATE (1) Mostly politicians, but greater range and more publicly than before.

Request incorporation LOW~MODERATE (1) April 2013 Consolidation plan lays out clear map for implementating realignment. (2) The plan also included several other local requests. 2014 Meeting with SNAs MODERATE 3 (1) Success in forming the Council for Promoting the Alleviation of the Burden of Futenma Air Station Breadth of SNAs LOW~MODERATE (1) Only Okinawan govenor and Ginowan mayor

Request incorporation LOW~MODERATE (1) GOJ and US govt investigate possibility of moving Osprey training outside of Okinawa. (2) GOJ signed compensation agreement with Fisheries Co-op 2015 Meeting with SNAs LOW 3 (1) Opposition from Governor ONAGA and Nago Mayor INAMINE makes this difficult. Breadth of SNAs MODERATE (1) GOJ officials meet directly with mayors / leaders of smaller municipalities instead

31 Indicator Summary Overall level of PI (1-5) Request incorporation LOW~MODERATE (1) Despite opposition at prefectural level, some requests are fulfilled at the local level, such as the return of the West Futenma Housing Area (2) However, the GOJ also starts preliminary work for relocating Futenma to Henoko,

32 Table A6: Developments in Nago City and Okinawa Prefecture, 1990-2015

Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Nov 1990 Tensions -- SN leader Gov. ŌTA approves land lease behavior renewal on behalf of 290 landowners.

May 15, 1992 PI -- request Vice Pres. Dan QUAYLE (1) Onna Communications Site; incorporation announces return of 3 sites to (2) Range 21 training center at Camp Okinawa. Hansen - (training suspended immediately); (3) part of Northern Training Area. But OPG reaction negative b/c these returns had already been announced in 1990. Apr, 1994 PI -- request JDA director-general Kazuo (1) return of Naha Port incorporation AICHI asks SecDef PERRY to (2) end to parachute drop exercises at put 3 Okinawan facilities on the Auxiliary Airfield and the bilateral agenda return of the airfield (3) end to live artillery exercises over Prefectural highway 104 In June, ŌTA and other prefectural officials visit US to call for these to be implemented. Okinawa has been calling for these changes for years. Feb 18, 1995 PI -- request JDA Director General Relocation of live ammunition drills; incorporation Tokuichiro TAMAZAWA return of Naha Port in exchange for presents Gov. ŌTA with plan to construction of new port; return of scale back U.S. bases in Yomitan Auxiliary Airfield, with prefecture parachute drill facilities to be relocated to Camp Hansen. June, 1995 PI -- request Guntenpo goes into effect, Okinawa wanted 7 years (which incorporation guaranteeing 3 years of would be achieved in 2002, under compensation for returned land Governor INAMINE). that owners are unable to use. Sep 4, 1995 TRIGGER Rape incident -- 3 US military personnel assault a 12-year old schoolgirl.

Oct(?), 1995 Tensions -- SN leader Okinawa Governor ŌTA says Triggered by Sep rape incident; but behavior that he will refuse to renew the origins lie in dissatisfaction with lack leases for the bases. of movement on previously promised returns. ŌTA also refuses to meet government officials until after the People's Rally Oct 21, 1995 Tensions -- civil society Prefecture-wide protests re: rape Estimates: protests "People's Rally" 60,000 (police) 85,000 (organizers) Prefectural population: 1.3 million Nov, 1995 PI -- request US and JPN governments set up in order to “develop incorporation SACO (Special Action recommendations...on ways to Committee on Okinawa), which consolidate, realign and reduce U.S. is called the “Ad-hoc Action facilities and areas, and adjust Committee” at this point in operational procedures of U.S. forces time. in Okinawa.”

33 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Nov 4, 1995 PI -- meeting with SNAs MURAYAMA meets ŌTA and ŌTA pointed out that there was no informs him of lawsuit mechanism for Okinawa and Tokyo to discuss the issues. MURAYAMA promised to establish something. Nov 21, 1995 PM MURAYAMA issues ŌTA with official warning to make the proxy signing for the land expropriation for military use; Dec 7, 1995 PM MURAYAMA files suit "over his failure to perform duties against ŌTA regarding land expropriation for US military sites" Jan, 1996 Okinawan Prefectural govt presents its “Base Return Action Programme” proposal to the GOJ Jan 11, 1996 Socialist MURAYAMA steps down. LDP hawk Ryūtarō HASHIMOTO becomes PM Within two PI -- meeting with SNAs ŌTA meets Prime Minister ŌTA stressed importance of a plan weeks of HASHIMOTO in Tokyo. that would show "reduction, Hashimoto realignment and consolidation" of US taking office facilities in the prefecture. Feb 27, 1996 SACO 3rd meeting Mar 22, 1996 PI -- meeting with SNAs 2nd meeting between ŌTA and NB: HASHIMOTO visited Okinawa HASHIMOTO; at the latter's the most out of all the PMs (p.130 favourite restaurant Funabashi)

Mar 25, 1996 Naha branch of Fukuoka High "The Governor is instructed to sign Court the papers by proxy in the next three days." Apr 12, 1996 PI -- request HASHIMOTO and Mondale announce agreement to return incorporation (relocate) Futenma.

ŌTA acknowledges this as "a manifestation of the government's sincerety."

Candidate locations protest Apr 15, 1996 PI -- request the U.S.-Japan SCC formally SACO Interim report; "return" of incorporation publishes the SACO Interim Futenma and a number of other Report requests Apr, 1996 Tensions -- SN leader Kadena Assembly adopt against potential transfer to Kadena behavior resolution May 9, 1996 Tensions -- SN leader Okinawa prefectural but apparently "assumed that the behavior government says that it will steps are in line with its own cooperate. blueprint, which Okinawa has presented to Tokyo, to recover all local U.S. military land and facilities by 2015." May 18/19, Tensions -- civil society Yomitan villagers protest (Yomitan village is slightly north of 1996 protests possible relocation to Yomitan Kadena) Jun 21/22, Tensions -- SN leader Okinawa Prefectural Assembly approves proposal to call referendum 1996 behavior

34 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Jun, 1996 Tensions -- SN leader Nago City Assembly passes unanimous, "against any future behavior resolution replacement of the Futenma Base with a heliport" in its offshore waters Jul, 1996 Tensions -- civil society Nago Mayor holds "anti- protests heliport rally of Nago citizens." Aug 9, 1996 PI -- request JPN govt presents proposals on 60-hectare Ginbaru Training Area incorporation specific ways to return land as Yomitan Auxiliary Airfield per SACO. Sobe Communications Site Aug 19, 1996 Tensions -- civil society Govt and tell central govt that they refuse to protests leaders from other proposed accept transfers from Okinawa relocation sites Aug 28, 1996 PI -- request Supreme Court of Japan rules incorporation that GOJ has authority to seize land for use by US forces

Sep 8, 1996 Tensions -- public vote / referendum rejecting heliport 90% of votes cast for reduction and election results consolidation of the bases; however turnout of 60% meant that this comprised only ~54% of eligible voters.

Sep 17, 1996 PI -- meeting with SNAs PM HASHIMOTO has 3-hour local leaders from Chatan, Kadena trip to Okinawa, where he and Okinawa City also meet with announces that the US and HASHIMOTO to convey their Japanese govts are considering a opposition to integration with removable, offshore heliport as Kadena. 1405, 1412. FRF Oct 2, 1996 PI -- request HASHIMOTO approves plan to (nb: national and international level) incorporation set up working group on FRF (as agreed at Sep SCC); Nov, 1996 Tensions -- SN leader Nago City Council passes a In response to comment from JDA behavior unanimous resolution "against director general that Henoko area is any future replacement of the being considered. Futenma Base with a heliport offshore of Camp Schwab."

Apr, 1997 Tensions -- SN leader Nago City Mayor accepts GOJ's behavior request for feasibility study for heliport Apr 17, 1997 PI -- request Diet passes amendment to Land such that the final authority now lies incorporation Lease Law with the GOJ as opposed to the prefectural governor. Jun, 1997 Nago Citizens The Nago Citizens Act For a Heliport Referendum is established

Jul, 1997 PI -- request US and JPN governments agree Residents and SNGs oppose, but incorporation to construct heliport off Camp some construction groups welcome it. Schwab Jul, 1997 Tensions -- SN leader 13 districts in surrounding area behavior submit "anti-heliport petition" to Nago City

35 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Sep 2, 1997 PI -- meeting with SNAs JDA creates task group for the to implement the construction of the FRF (普天間飛行場移設対策 FRF, as well as perform PR role etc 本部) Oct, 1997 Tensions -- SN leader Nago govt agrees to referendum In response to petition by Nago behavior on accepting the heliport Civilian group formed in July, which collected signatures for this. The govt adds two conditional choices. Nov, 1997 PI -- meeting with SNAs; JPN govt unveils policy (6 meetings to explain its "Basic Plan request incorporation proposal for Nago economy for the Offshore Heliport.") revitalisation, holds meetings with Nago citizens mid-Nov, PI -- meeting with SNAs JPN and Okinawan construction local leaders declared for land 1997 groups meet at Busena Resort reclamation instead of QIP and megafloats ideas that had been under discussion Dec 21, 1997 Tensions -- public vote / Nago referendum on accepting 87% of votes were cast against election results the heliport accepting FRF; but low turnout meant that this comprised only ~53% of eligible voters. Dec, 1997 Tensions -- SN leader Nago Mayor Tetsuya HIGA behavior accepts FRF but resigns as mayor. Feb 6, 1998 Tensions -- SN leader Oki Governor ŌTA rejects FRF behavior Feb 8, 1998 Tensions -- public vote / Tateo KISHIMOTO reelected as KISHIMOTO was the conservative election results Nago Mayor incumbent facing off against the progressive backed by ŌTA. However, he is also a one-tsubo landlord, and accepted the governor's decision. Feb 13, 1998 PI -- request JPN Cabinet approves special to encourage acceptance of SACO. incorporation economic measures for Okinawa

Nov 15, 1998 Tensions -- public vote / LDP-affiliated Keiichi INAMINE asserted that he would election results INAMINE elected Okinawan accept FRF as joint civilian-military governor, defeating ŌTA. facility, timeline of 15 years. Nov 24, 1998 PI -- meeting with SNAs PM Obuchi meets with INAMINE asked for consolidation Okinawan governor-elect and reduction, and economic INAMINE at PM's residence. stimulation programs. OBUCHI agreed to work with Okinawa towards these requests. Apr 2, 1999 Residents of the Henoko district in Nago file a request with the Okinawa Prefectural Government to invite the offshore heliport to be built near Camp Schwab Jun 4, 1999 Tensions -- ? Harrier jet fails to take off from Governor INAMINE subsequently Kadena and bursts into flames urges US and GOJ to investigate. Okinawa city? Assembly resolution calls for end to all Harrier training due to "unreliability"

36 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details June 29, 1999 PI -- meeting with SNAs OPG (INAMINE; others) agreed to implement SACO; GOJ (CCS Hiromu NONOKA and director-gen. of Okinawa Adopted interim report on a new Development Agency development plan for Okinawa. meeting at Diet building

Aug 21, 1999 Tensions -- SN leader Ginowan assembly adopts resolution expressing behavior acceptance of transfer within Okinawa.

Sep 24, 1999 Tensions -- SN leader Henoko administrative to oppose construction of heliport behavior committee adopts resolution facilities on the ground and reclaimed land. (After prefectural official noted earlier in month that the district is among the candidates) Sep 27, 1999 Tensions -- SN leader Nago assembly voted against resolution of behavior acceptance to new heliport plan Nov 19, 1999 Tensions -- SN leader Governor INAMINE officially With understanding that it was based behavior accepts FRF. on his two conditions. On Nov 22, INAMINE officially announces that Henoko is picked as the site. Dec 27, 1999 Tensions -- SN leader Nago Mayor KISHIMOTO behavior accepts transfer to Nago. Dec 28, 1999 PI -- request Obuchi Cabinet passed Cabinet endorsing relocation to Henoko and incorporation Resolution "Policy on relocation INAMINE's two conditions. of the Futenma Air Station” Mar 27, 2000 Tensions 5,544 ppl near Kadena sue for noise pollution and end to night flights. May 31, 2000 PI -- request GOJ launches panel to examine incorporation what to do with the returned land in Okinawa. Jul, 2000 Tensions -- civil society G-8 summit in Okinawa Arranged by GOJ in effort to entice protests investors(?), backfires when Okinawans use opportunity to express their opposition. Oct 3, 2000 PI -- meeting with SNAs 2nd meeting of joint GOJ/OPG panel on Futenma.

Oct 20, 2000 Tensions -- SN leader Urasoe Mayor MIYAGI b/c it drew a backlash from his behavior reverses decision on Urasoe supporters. (Mayoral election Feb Port 2001) Nov 29, 2000 PI -- meeting with SNAs 4th meeting of panel on Okinawan officials request limits on Futenma the noise from the new facility to be built (ask GOJ to ask US to conduct test flights in the area). Jan 16, 2001 PI -- meeting with SNAs 5th meeting of panel Three construction methods proposed. KISHIMOTO requests 'minimum impact on environment'; Feb 12, 2001 Tensions -- public vote / Mitsuo GIMA, supporting election results Urasoe Port (mil-civ condition), elected mayor of Urasoe Apr, 2001 Koizumi Cabinet inaugurated

37 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details May, 2001 Nago City moves to seek special "Since last year, the city, which will financial status from GOJ. host a replacement facility for U.S. Marines from Okinawa's Futenma Air Station, has been formulating the proposal in cooperation with financial institutions and think tanks as part of a raft of measures to promote economic development in the northern part of Japan's southernmost prefecture." May 13, 2001 Governor INAMINE seeks went to US to request it. Nago Mayor troop reductions Tateo KISHIMOTO accompanied him for part of trip.

May18, 2001 Tensions -- SN leader Governor INAMINE calls on suggests flexibility on 15-year time behavior ? GOJ to negotiate airport plan. limit; KISHIMOTO inflexible.

Jun 8, 2001 PI -- meeting with SNAs 7th meeting of facility discuss construction methods; land replacement panel reclamation has become favored?

The 15-year limit condition is shelved (KISHIMOTO expresses concern) Nov 12, 2001 Tensions -- SN leader Urasoe Mayor GIMA accepts behavior Urasoe Port relocation

Dec 4, 2001 PI -- meeting with SNAs Omi Koji (State minister for "to discuss the location and method Okinawa) meets with of construction of the airport" INAMINE and KISHIMOTO re: FRF Dec 27, 2001 PI -- meeting with SNAs; 8th meeting of the facility Panel approves plan for FRF. request incorporation replacement panel INAMINE repeats request for 15- year time limit; GOJ bulks Feb 3, 2002 Tensions -- public vote / KISHIMOTO reelected as Nago election results Mayor Feb 18, 2002 PI -- request JPN FM cannot agree to 15-year time limit. incorporation US Sec State Colin POWELL finish talks in Tokyo re: Futenma Jul 29, 2002 PI -- meeting with SNAs; 9th meeting of facility Basic Plan for Futenma Replacement request incorporation replacement panel Facility adopted. Henoko chosen as replacement site. Nov 17, 2002 Tensions -- public vote / INAMINE reelected as 3 other candidates called for election results Okinawan governor on platform relocation outside calling for 15-year time limit. Okinawa/unconditional return. Also pushing for fewer troops on the island. Dec 1, 2002 PI -- request JDA Director General ISHIBA incorporation Shigeru says that he will take up 15-year time limit in talks with US. Dec, 2002 US govt DPRI Talks launched J govt

38 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details 2002-2003 Tensions -- SN leader Disagreement between (Agreement said that OPG was behavior GOJ/OPG over who should take contracting party, but OPG claimed charge of environmental that it was national govt project) assessment. Apr 27, 2003 Tensions -- public vote / Yoichi IHA elected mayor of turnout 55.54%. DFAA official fears election results Ginowan, opposes FRF within possibility of attitudes of local Okinawa authorities in Nago and Okinawa opposing. See 1089. Dec, 2003 JDA takes charge of env. assessment Apr 28, 2004 JDA begins Env. Assessment. Jul 27, 2004 PI -- request US govt withdraws most of its following 3 days of working-level incorporation specific proposals for talks earlier in month in San realignment in Japan, plans to Francisco. renegotiate the agreement (=> leads to the Roadmap) Aug 21, 2004 Tensions -- civil society 1,200 people protest around Organized by one person, Takashi protests Futenma. KISHIMOTO. Following Ch53-D Helicopter crash on Aug 13. Sep 9, 2004 Tensions -- civil society Civil Society Activists begin Coast guard refused to crack down; protests disrupting EIA process. pulling people off the scaffold may result in deaths Sep 13, 2004 Tensions -- civil society 30,000 gather in Okinawa to response perceived to be insensitive protests protest SOFA/US presense after to Japanese sovereignty and crash and US response. Okinawan concerns. 2004-5? DPRI PI -- request GOJ and Defense Agency NB: Vice JDA director MORIYA talks incorporation propose relocation to Schwab clearly states that local leaders had training ground informed him that they did not want to stake their political careers on pursuading their constituencies to accept the bases etc. Feb 19, 2005 US govt two-plus-two meetings GOJ Mar 16, 2005 US govt begin talks on realignment (incl. GOJ Okinawa and Iwakuni) and defense cooperation. Apr 11, 2005 PI -- request GOJ (JDA director Ono incl. US Army General Supply Depot incorporation Yoshinori) asks US to return in Sagamihara, Kanagawa, and U.S. underused bases/facilities Marine Makiminato Service Area in Urasoe, Okinawa Prefecture

Apr 24, 2005 US govt talks on realignment GOJ May 30, Tensions -- civil society Protests from various SNGs 2005? protests following May 22 news reports for integration with Kadena Aug 8, 2005 Japanese lower house dissolved for elections on Sep 11

39 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Oct 29, 2005 PI -- request U.S.-Japan SCC (2+2) release Following intensive negotiations in incorporation interim report on DPRI process. September. JDA Director General Yoshinori Ono also discussed plans unofficially with INAMINE and Nago Mayor. Offshore Basic Plan abandoned => new L-shaped facility plan. Oct 30, 2005 Tensions -- civil society local officials of various chatise central govt for not consulting protests; SN leader affected SNGs, including SNGs in deciding the plans for behavior Okinawa, criticize GOJ for regalignment. 5,000 protestors in allegedly not consulting them Okinawa. INAMINE now wants base wrt the new realignment plans. outside of Okinawa. KISHIMOTO warns that he will not be able to convince his constituency to accept the new plan. Nov 21, 2005 Tensions -- SN leader Nago assembly adopts stressing concerns of noise pollution behavior resolution expressing strong and other damage to local residents; opposition to FRF. also stressing how GOJ ignored local community's opinions. Dec, 2005 PI -- meeting with SNAs Formal talks between GOJ and JDA Director General Fukushiro Okinawa's SN leaders. Nukaga; Okinawa Governor & Other local leaders. KISHIMOTO claims that local residents want the base further offshore => 200m to shoals, and with two runways (Ryukyu Shimpo p.91). Jan 23, 2006 Tensions -- public vote / Shimabukuro Yoshikazu (LDP INAMINE remains opposed; election results supported) elected Nago mayor. Shimabukuro opposed but willing to negotiate. Focused on "development" during the Campaign.

NB: Henoko Ward Head Oshiro Yasumasa dislikes current plan b/c it is only 300 m from nearest civilian houses. Thinks GOJ should have overruled environmental protesters) Mar 5, 2006 Tensions -- civil society 35,000 strong protest in Agence France Presse, Kyodo protests Ginowan. Mar 7-11, PI -- request more talks in Honolulu between GOJ to set up council to sell 2006 incorporation US govt and GOJ relocation plan to Okinawans. US side agrees to return 3 facilities in Okinawa

Mar 21, 2006 PI -- request JDA Director General Nukuga but cannot move it outside US incorporation and PM Koizumi indicate that military parameter, b/c this would minor changes to Roadmap may allow protestors to block it. Also be possible. fears of escalation of changes once minor changes are allowed. (senior JDA official on Mar 23, Yomiuri)

40 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Mar 22, 2006 PI -- meeting with SNAs Nukuga meets Nago Mayor New report by Japan Times claims Shimabukuro. that " Earlier in the day, Shimabukuro and Okinawa Gov. Keiichi INAMINE agreed during talks in the prefectural capital of Naha to reject any proposals for "minor adjustments'' the state might offer. " NB: PM Koizumi saying that GOJ "is willing to pay for part of move to Guam in order to lessen burden on Okinawa." Mar 23-4, US govt more realignment talks 2006 GOJ Apr 7, 2006 PI -- meeting with SNAs; JDA Director General and the Compromise (V-shaped plan) (Five request incorporation mayors of Nago and Ginoza concerned municipalities accept it. sign a basic agreement. Apr 8, 2006 Tensions -- SN leader OPG Governor INAMINE in talks b/w Tokyo and OPG. behavior Keiichi opposes the V-shaped Talks with JDA Director General plan. Nukuga in Tokyo.

INAMINE would later maintain that the 'agreement' he signed signified not agreement with the plan, but agreement to keep discussing it. Apr 13-4, US govt more realignment talks 2006 GOJ Apr 23, 2006 GOJ reach deal to pay $6.09billion to help US govt relocate Marines to Guam

May 1, 2006 PI -- request U.S.-Japan SCC (2+2) release V-shaped runway plan in the shoals incorporation Roadmap to Realignment off Camp Schwab (the current Implementation design); 8,000 Marines to be transferred off Okinawa when complete; May 2, 2006 Tensions -- SN leader Nago Mayor Shimabukuro and INAMINE flexible, Shimabukuro behavior Oki Gov INAMINE express unhappy about length of runways discontent with agreement. (1,800 instead of the original 1,500) May 11, 2006 Tensions -- SN leader JDA and OPG sign "basic same agreement already signed with behavior confirmation" (基本確認書) of Nago and Ginoza the realignment in Okinawa. May 11, 2006 Tensions -- SN leader exchange of notes b/w Nukaga taken to mean govt "virtually Oks the behavior and INAMINE plan" by JDA vice minister MORIYA Takemasa… INAMINE wants to continue discussion to move it further offshore. As of June 24, 2006, however, no further discussion. May 30, 2006 PI -- request “Government Initiatives for J cabinet approves Roadmap. GOJ incorporation Restructuring US Forces in and relevant SNGs to set up group to Japan” oversee construction of FRF and map out steps to improve local economy May 30, 2006 INAMINE protests that it goes against the document he signed on May 11.

41 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Aug 29, 2006 GOJ set up joint council (finally) OPG municipal govts

Sep, 2006 Koizumi steps down, ABE takes his place. Nov 19, 2006 Tensions -- public vote / Okinawa gubernatorial election; NAKAIMA campaigned on platform election results 344,688 to 307,965 votes for that pledged to push for FRF to be LDP-backed Hirokazu moved further offshore. NAKAIMA over Itokazu Keiko. 64.54% turnout. Over 100 LDP politicians visited on NAKAIMA's behalf. DPJ leader Ozawa Ichiro on Itokazu's.

Note also that NAKAIMA won Naha, Ginowan, Kadena, Nago, which have basing facilities Jan 11, 2007 PI -- request US to foot 25% of transfer of "While Washington initially wanted incorporation fighter drills from Kadena. See Japan to shoulder all of the costs, Jan 31 report arguing that the transfer would contribute to helping Okinawa, it has accepted Tokyo's call for bearing part of the expenses as the plan will shore up interoperability, the sources said." Jan 17, 2007 PI -- meeting with SNAs third round of talks between Nago, HIGAshi, Ginoza, Kin in GOJ, OPG and local SNGs favour of the V-shaped plan, but begins. NAKAIMA insists that the airfield is too close to residential areas. He also has maintained that Futenma Air Station be closed down within three years. Feb, 2007 US deputy undersecretary of conveys message that US will not Defense Richard Lawless accept changes. Feb 5, 2007 new reports on Defense Minister Fumio KYUMA criticising US: "We have to heed the opinion of the Okinawa governor in implementing the plan. The Americans do not understand the necessity of consensus-building" Feb 9, 2007 PI -- request Cabinet approves bill on 4- 10-year legislation; "The subsidies incorporation stages of subsidies for would be provided in four phases communities affected by with their amount becoming greater realignment. in each phase -- the acceptance of the realignment plan, the launch of a pre- work environmental assessment, the start of facility construction, and the completion of the construction or the start of facility use." Mar 11, 2007 PI -- request MoD Kyuma asks Kevin Maher It was a secret conversation, incorporation about the possibility of moving following a request from the FRF seaward. NAKAIMA. Wanting to save face for NAKAIMA => Maher indicated that he would see what he could do.

42 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Mar 19, 2007 Tensions -- SN leader Oki Gov. NAKAIMA Hirokazu "saying that would be interpreted as behavior refuses to give consent for EIA its acceptance of the proposal to build process. the V-shaped runway."

Nago also now demanding that the FRF be moved further out to sea. (Nikkei) Mar 23, 2007 PI -- request Kevin Maher at press Defense Minister Kyuma checked incorporation conference in Urasoe City, with the Ministry of the Environment signaled (vaguely) that he person responsible for the EIA what would work to confirm the FRF leeway they had: it turned out to be plan whilst seeing what could be around 150m. done about moving it seaward. Kyuma was actually very keen on trying to get things to work with Okinawa; worked with vice-Minister MORIYA to make sure of availability when NAKAIMA and Nago's Shimabukuro went to Tokyo. Mar 24, 2007 PI -- request Former PM Koizumi heard Argued that "the government cannot incorporation about what MORIYA and be indecisive," and recommended Kyuma were doing, and that they stick to the V-shaped plan. reprimanded the LDP On March 25, Kyuma meets leadership. NAKAIMA and Shimabukuro and tells them that GOJ will stick to the V-shaped plan.

Apr 13, 2007 Lower House passes bill for subsidies and funding of realignment.

May 18, 2007 PI -- request The JSDF begins setting up the MORIYA had convinced Chief of incorporation equipment needed for the EIA. Staff Saitō that they needed to do (in the middle of the night) this, in order to prevent the anti-base faction from interfering. Difficulty: the prefecture refused to permit access (アクセス方法書提 出) because the govt refused to change the V-shaped plan May 23, 2007 PI -- request Japanese Diet (Upper House) incorporation passes bill for subsidies and funding of realignment. Jul 3, 2007 Defense Minister Kyuma Just prior to this, he urged resigns over atomic bomb NAKAIMA again to accept the V- comment (Hiroshima, Nagasaki) shaped plan. But at the time, the Ministry of the Environment had told NAKAIMA that these was 150m of leeway. Jul 5, 2007 Yuriko KOIKE appointed Minister of Defense. Jul 30, 2007 DPJ wins largest number of seats in Upper House election.

43 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Aug, 2007 Vice Defense Minister MORIYA Takemasa ends 4- year term in this position.

Aug, 2007 PI -- request Japanese Ministry of Defense incorporation begins environmental impact assessment procedures Aug 20, 2007 PI -- request The special cabinet order on 特別措置法施行令（政令） incorporation "Special measures" for the 特別措置法施行規則（省令） realignment is passed (rules/regulations are passed by Ministerial ordinance on Aug 29) Oct, 2007 PI -- request GOJ eliminates Kin, Ginoza and NB: Zama, Nago, Iwakuni also incorporation Onna from list of municipalities refuse. On Nov 13, the three to receive subsidies. municipal governments reverse their stances "after studying in a comprehensive manner" the proposed joint use and government subsidies to be given to them." Jan 3, 2008 PI -- preference GOJ, OPG and Nago willing to Yomiuri incorporation move runway a further 90m offshore.

Feb 7, 2008 GOJ considers lifting freeze on hard-line approach not working. Nago funding. (total of 7 municipalities excluded). Nago protested, saying that they had accepted the location of the base, just not the plan - want FRF built further offshore May 25, 2008 DPJ Secretary General Yukio HATOYAMA visits Okinawa and suggests that he would look to relocate Futenma outside Okinawa/Japan. June 8, 2008 Tensions -- public vote / Okinawa Prefectural Assembly election results elections; pro-Nakaima block loses majority July 18, 2008 Tensions -- SN leader Okinawa Prefectural Assembly behavior passes resolution against the plans for the FRF. July 18, 2008 PI -- meeting with SNAs GOJ and OPG agree to create two working groups on the relocation of MCAS Futenma. early Aug, becomes 2008 new defense minister Feb 17, 2009 PI -- request US govt and GOJ sign the With intention of ensuring that incorporation Guam Agreement. agreement is implemented. Apr, 2009 PI -- preference On visit to Washington, DPJ incorporation member drops bombshell that DPJ was looking to review the Roadmap Agreement as it pertains to Futenma.

44 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details May 13, 2009 PI -- request Japanese Diet passes Guam incorporation Agreement.

Aug 30, 2009 Tensions -- public vote / DPJ elected to power. They Across Japan, the result was less election results promised to review the about Okinawa and more about a Roadmap as it pertained to general loss of confidence in the LDP MCAS Futenma. following a series of scandals. However, HATOYAMA's promise to review the Futenma agreement had a large effect on SNA behavior within the prefecture. Nov 8, 2009 Tensions -- civil society 20,000 strong protest in protesting ahead of Pres. Obama's protests Okinawa visit Nov 15-16, PI -- meeting with SNAs FM OKADA visits Okinawa to address issue of Futenma 1999 Jan 6, 2010 2nd meeting of the coalition Kuroe, deputy head of the policy govt (DPJ, SDP, NPP) group department in the Ministry of formed to examine the Futenma Defense, explains to the committee agreement what has happened wrt Futenma so far (from the 1995 rape through SACO to the present) Group members propose to examine Omura SDF airbase in Nagasaki, Kansai International Airport, Airport, Misawa base. Each with own major challenges. Jan 24, 2010 Tensions -- public vote / Susumu INAMINE elected Ran as an independent with support election results Nago Mayor from the DPJ, SDP and PNP as well as the Japanese Communist Party. Jan 29, 2010 PI -- meeting with SNAs; DM SHIMOJI tries to persuade three refuse, saying that they wish to request incorporation the three-grouping of Chatan, see the govt's efforts at reducing Kadena and Okinawa City to noise pollution, and indicate that accept a new "Kadena relocation within the prefecture is no integration" plan longer acceptable to them. Feb, 2010 Tensions -- SN leader OPG Assembly adopts behavior resolution demanding that MCAS Futenma be closed unconditionally. Feb 24, 2010 OPG (Assembly) unanimously passes resolution requesting that Futenma be relocated outside of Okinawa Feb 26, 2010 PI -- request SDP names 9 different places as 's Tomakomai; GSDF's incorporation possible relocation sites. But HIGAshifuji maneuver area in wants 15 yr time limit (actual Shizuoka; East China Sea island of goal is to relocate Futenma Mage belonging to Kagoshima; the outside Japan) U.S. Air Force's Yokota base in Tokyo; Iwakuni; MSDF's Omura air base in Nagasaki; in Saga; ASDF's Tsuiki air base in Fukuoka; MSDF's Kanoya air base in Kagoshima. Mar, 2010 Tensions -- SN leader Okinawan Town Mayors (41) opposing relocation within Okinawa? behavior adopt resolution

45 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Mar 10, 2010 Governor NAKAIMA goes to He had formerly kept Gov Kantei to get explanation on the INAMINE's stance of being realistic state of the proposals/studies about what could be done, so Ryukyu and faces the media with "I Shimpo interprets this as NAKAIMA don't understand the plans" not knowing what position he should (Katsuren Peninsula; Camp take now that everyone has flipped Schwab land). (to take an unrealistic stance?). The 'realistic position' is now lost to him. Mar 30, 2010 SDF helicopter travelling from Naha to Tokunoshima crashes, killing 4 people.

Apr, 2010 Okinawan Association of City Resolution Adopted Mayors (11) opposing relocation within Okinawa? Apr, 2010 Tensions -- civil society 90,000 protest in Okinawa population of Okinawa: 1.5 million protests Apr 2, 2010 PI -- meeting with SNAs CCS Hirano and MoD Kitazawa meet NAKAIMA in Tokyo mid Apr, 2010 J media reveals that US has b/c it will split up Marine rejected proposal to move functions/units, making training more MCAS Futenma to difficult. Tokunoshima is also too Tokunoshima small to accommodate more of the Marines to facilitate better access to joint training. (There were protests from Tokunoshima's citizens in March)

Apr 18, 2010 Tensions -- civil society est. 15,000 ppl turn up for Local political heads upset because protests Tokunoshima rally GOJ has not 'sounded them out' (publicly, to the people); rather, they tried to push it (secretly) on the local leaders -- back in December, and January Apr 20, 2010 PI -- meeting with SNAs Deputy CCS Takino Kinya is rejected contacts Tokunoshima mayors to arrange meeting to explain plan.

46 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Apr 28, 2010 PI -- meeting with SNAs Hatoyama meets with former b/c Tokuda remains an influential HR from Tokunoshima, figure on the island. (NB: his son, TOKUDA Torao, to propose Takeshi (LDP LH) was also present; relocation of some of Futenma's he later told the press, apparently capabilities. before HATOYAMA had really spoken with his SDP coalition partners). But Tokuda said that it would be impossible.

only helped HATOYAMA arrange meeting with mayors. But the people and mayors are angry that he went to Tokuda without going to the mayors first.

NB: the Tokunoshima idea was pushed by Maeda Hidetada, a former speaker of the Amagi Town Assembly who wanted to revitalise the island by accepting the base. (Sugita__2010) An elderly supporter of the plan suggested that if the LDP were pushing the plan, the island would accept, b/c they support the LDP's Tokuda Takeshi. Apr 29, 2010 DPJ presents official FRF plan construction of a single runway on a pile-supported structure; transfer of helicopter unit (~60) and 1000 Marines to Tokunoshima. But US maintains that funcations of Futenma shd not be more than 120km apart (Tokunoshima is 200km from Schwab) May 4, 2010 PI -- request Hatoyama tells Okinawans that though he pledges that GOJ will not incorporation he has no choice but to return to resort to legal measures if the the Henoko plan. localities do not agree. DPJ wants modifications to landfill plan - stilts, to protect coral reefs. May 4, 2010 PI -- request US explicitly rejects transfer to drills can be moved, provided incorporation Tokunoshima (due to facilities to house Marines are built operational/training issues) there, but the units have to be deployed in Okinawa (MV-22 Ospreys) May 7, 2010 Tensions -- civil society PM HATOYAMA meets three mayors submitted anti-base petition protests; SN leader mayors from Tokunoshima (in with 25,000 signatures (20,000 of behavior Tokyo) them residents; total 27,000). Even rejected transfer of training. May 8, 2010 Tensions -- civil society 5,000 ppl protest in Kagoshima protests May 12, 2010 CCS Hirano Hirofumi meets Same day: US says that the runway is with Tokunoshima assembly too narrow… Would require members to request cooperation. expansion of Tokunoshima runway, incl. land reclamation, taking 8 years.

47 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details May 15, 2010 CCS Hirano Hirofumi meets residents side called for reduction in again with Tokunoshima airfares to the island and expressed politicians and ppl (17) fears over rumoured plans to turn whole island into facility.

He asks local advocates to petition their politicians May 16, 2010 Tensions -- civil society 17,000 protestors surround protests Futenma. May 20, 2010 CCS Hirano Hirofumi agrees to 14 residents submitted the list; 7 conditions set by Tokunoshima residents for "The seven conditions were: 1) transfer Cancel approximately 25 billion yen in debt (government bonds) incurred by the three towns located on Tokunoshima; 2) Bring down the relatively high sea and air fares to a level comparable to fares to and from Okinawa; 3) Make fuel prices comparable to those in mainland Japan and Okinawa; 4) Grant the same subsidies given to Okinawa Prefecture's brown sugar refineries to those in ; 5) Establish new special medical, social and economic zones (with exemption from health care tax); 6) Transfer jurisdiction of the Act on Special Measures for the Amami Islands Promotion and Development from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism to the Cabinet Office.; and 7) Establish nurses colleges and vocational schools on the island." May 28, 2010 Hatoyama calls on Association SDP refused to compromise on of Governors to accept transfer Okinawa. = problem for coalition of some training from Okinawa. govt. SDP leaves Coalition on May 30.

May 28, 2010 PI -- request US govt and GOJ reaffirm the But propose that training be incorporation Roadmap V-shaped runway transferred out of Okinawa. plan for the FRF. June, 2010 Hatoyama resigns Jul 20, 2010 GOJ decides to forgo budget due to opposition by local leaders and request for feasibility study on residents. Tokunoshima Kan wasn't keen, perhaps due to the cost that required facility improvements would entail. (cost est. to be ~ 100 bil yen) Aug 12, 2010 Kagoshima Gov. Ito and again protest, sending letter to PM Tokunoshima mayors

48 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Aug 31, 2010 US-Japanese study group studied L- and V-shaped runway releases report on Futenma to plans; L plan requires less the Pentagon. reclamation, so lesser environmental effect, be built quicker, cost 3% less, but have more overhead flights. Sep 17, 2010 Maehara Seiji appointed as Japanese Foreign Minister Oct, 2010 first meeting of committee for reducing Okinawa's military burdens. Nov 29, 2010 Tensions -- public vote / Governor NAKAIMA reelected Independent, but supported by LDP. election results over former Ginowan mayor Officially 'opposed' to the plan to Yoichi IHA move Futenma. Dec 24, 2010 GOJ approves budget with 37 bil yen for Guam, but nothing for FRF. Jan 20, 2011 PI -- meeting with SNAs; Japanese DM Kitazawa informs "The defense minister also said the request incorporation NAKAIMA that the US has central government will launch talks agreed to transfer portion of F- to get the United States return the 15 (Kadena), F-16 (Misawa) Gimbaru training area in the Okinawa and F-18 (Iwakuni) training to town of Kin by the end of fiscal 2011 Guam. that starts in April." - originally agreed to in 1996. Jan 25, 2011 PI -- meeting with SNAs; meeting of committee section NAKAIMA questions the effect of request incorporation for reducing Okinawa's military transfer of training, as aircraft that burdens, headed by Chief leave are often replaced by incoming Cabinet Secretary aircraft. Feb, 2011 Hatoyama says in interviews with the Ryukyu Shimpo that "deterrence" was just an excuse (hoben) Mar 7?, 2011 FM Maehara Seiji resigns b/c of foreign donor scandal

Mar 7, 2011 Tensions (general?) Okinawan politicians (e.g. Kevin Maher is reported to have NAKAIMA) protest comments described people in Okinawa as made by former Consul ''masters of manipulation and General. extortion' in a lecture he delivered in Washington DC. The Okinawa Prefectural and Nago City assemblies both adopt resolutions protesting the comment, and CCS Yukio Edano also lodged a protest with US Ambassador John Roos on Mar 9. Mar 11, 2011 Matsumoto Takeaki promoted also day of the Great East Japan to FM Earthquake May 25, 2011 GAO Report on realignment Jun, 2011 US-Japan SCC (2+2) meetings. drop the target of completing the The two govts finalize updated relocation by 2014 plans for MCAS Futenma. also announces that they will replace the aging CH-46 helicopters with Ospreys.

Jul 14, 2011 Tensions -- SN leader Okinawa Pref. Assembly adopts resolution demanding behavior cancellation of Osprey Deployment (sched. for Oct 2012)

49 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Jul 31, 2011 return of Gimbaru Training Area

Aug, 2011 Japan's MOD sets up 4 teams to One team for all relocation; one each restart stalled for Futenma, US Marines to Guam relocation/realignment process and carrier drills to Mage island.

Aug 29. 2011 US Begins environmental assessment for deployment of Ospreys at Futenma. Oct 27, 2011 PI -- meeting with SNAs Okinawa Govenor NAKAIMA, Noda's first meeing with them since Nago Mayor INAMINE, he took over LDP leadership. Japanese PM Noda. NAKAIMA calls again for base to be removed from Okinawa Nov 18, 2011 PI -- meeting with SNAs Deputy CCS Makoto Taketoshi meets governor and other prefectural officials Nov 19, 2011 PI -- meeting with SNAs Minister in charge of Okinawan affairs makes 2nd visit to prefecture

Feb, 2012 PM Noda visits Okinawa, views Henoko from air. Feb 6, 2012 US-Japan SCC have working Headed by Kurt Campbell (Assist. level meeting on realignment. Sec. State); Wallace Gregson (Assist. Sec. Defense); Kazuyoshi Umemoto (MOFA Northern American Affairs Bureau Director General); Nobushige Takamizawa (MOD Bureau of Defense Policy).

=> only 4,700 Marines to Guam! US proposes to transfer 1st Marine Aircraft Wing HQ (1,300) to Iwakuni. Feb 9, 2012 Tensions -- SN leader Yamaguchi Gov. NII announces The day before, Iwakuni Mayor behavior freeze on Atagoyama land sale FUKUDA reiterated that Iwakuni to DM unless Iwakuni removed will not accept any increase in the from transfer list for Marines. burden Feb 13, 2012 Tensions -- public vote / Atsushi Sakima elected Mayor defeats former mayor, Yoichi IHA by election results of Ginowan 900 votes by pledging to ensure that Futenma does not remain in Ginowan (a fear sparked by the delinkage announcement) Mar 8, 2012 PI -- request US gov and GOJ agree that no Further talks had been held Feb 27- incorporation Marines will be transferred to 28. Iwakuni. Mar 14, 2012 US govt ask Japan to consider Reasoning from US: spread them out other bases within Japan for because they're in range of Chinese transfer of Marines. ballistic missiles Apr 26 (or PI -- request US-Japan SCC (2+2) Joint reaffirms 2006 Roadmap, but delinks 27?), 2012 incorporation Statement. transfer of 8,000 Marines and return of 5 facilities from completetion of FRF.

50 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details early Jun, Noda Cabinet Reshuffle appointed DM. 2012 Jun 11, 2012 Tensions -- public vote / Okinawa Prefectural Assembly Major issue of concern: Osprey, election results elections; pro-NAKAIMA block which are scheduled to be deployed fails to win majority. to Japan over the coming months. Jun 30-Jul 1, PI -- meeting with SNAs DM MORIMOTO meets Okinawan officials reject Osprey 2012 Okinawan officials. deployment plan. Jul 19, 2012 Tensions -- SN leader Japan National Governors' behavior Association adopt resolution against Osprey deployment. Jul 23, 2012 Osprey arrive at Iwakuni Aug 3, 2012 Defense talks in Washington discussing Osprey Aug 17-18, PI -- meeting with SNAs DM MORIMOTO to visit having flown in one earlier in the 2012 Okinawa to brief NAKAIMA month. on Osprey

Sep 9, 2012 Tensions -- civil society 100,000 strong protest in protests Ginowan against Osprey. Sep, 2012 Japan nationalizes Senkaku islands by purchasing 3 islands from private owner. Sep 19, 2012 GOJ okays Osprey deployment to Okinawa after trial flights. Sep 26, 2012 Small protest rally outside Futenma (300 people) Oct 1, 2012 Tensions -- civil society Prefectural Assembly adopts Mixed public reaction, some still protests; SN leader resolution opposing deployment demanding cancellation, others behavior of Osprey (6 at this point) to resigned and demanding safety. MCAS Futenma. Oct 6, 2012 First Osprey flight in Okinawa Oct 15, 2012 PI -- meeting with SNAs Shinji TARUTOKO, new The governor seeks 300 bil yen for Minister for Okinawa, meets 2013 budget and demands review of with NAKAIMA. Osprey development. Dec, 2012 PI -- meeting with SNAs KISHIDA and ONODERA meet NAKAIMA Dec, 2012 LDP returns to power. PM is Shinzō ABE Jan, 2013 Defense Ministry completes environmental impact assessment procedures for FRF. Mar 22, 2013 GOJ submits request for approval of public water reclamation permit to OPG. Apr 12, 2013 OPG requests corrections. of request for approval of reclamation permit (by June 11)

51 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Apr, 2013 PI -- request US-Japan-SCC releases updated roadmap of facilities, returns incorporation Consolidation Plan for Facilities and timeframes. and Areas in Okinawa Changes: additional Shirahi River Area (0.4ha) to be returned, after consultation with locals; additional 0.5ha south of Industrial Corridor; area of Kishaba Housing Area to be returned changed after consultation with locals May 31, 2013 GOJ submits the corrections for the permit application. Jul, 2013 Okinawa Gov. and Assembly, and Ginowan again protest deployment of Ospreys Jul 30, 2013 Ospreys arrive at Iwakuni CCS SUGA urges Okinawans to accept Ospreys Aug 3, 2013 2 Osprey arrive at Futenma 200 protesters, removed by police Aug 27, 2013 PI -- request GOJ declares that it will seek "The increased budget request incorporation 40.7 billion yen increase in reflects the government's intention to Okinawa's budget (to 340.8 comply with local demands in the billion) hope of making progress on stalled plans to relocate the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma air station in the prefecture, informed sources said.

Okinawa Governor Hirokazu NAKAIMA has called on the central government to increase spending on the airport project while keeping the overall development budget for the prefecture at least the same level as in fiscal 2013." Aug 30, 2013 NAKAIMA submits petition to GOJ to move Futenma out of Okinawa Aug, 2013 PI -- request Land return: 1 ha (north access incorporation road of Makiminato Service Area (Camp Kinser)) Sep 7, 2013 PI -- meeting with SNAs Defense Minister Itsunori (to explain Osprey drills outside ONODERA meets NAKAIMA Okinawa) Sep 25, 2013 Final Osprey lands in Okinawa had needed parts replaced whilst at Iwakuni. Oct 3, 2013 PI -- request US-Japan SCC Joint Statement reports progress on Apr plan. incorporation 3 concessions Officials also sign protocol to (1) Expanded fishing waters amend the Guam agreement. (fishermen to be allowed into (966) Hotel/Hotel area) (2) Improved communication re: land to be returned (3) and legal fates of US military personnel court marshalled in US

52 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Oct 8, 2013 PI -- request FM KISHIDA & DM Victims to be given monthly reports incorporation ONODERA announce that on progress. procedures for US military prosecutions have changed Oct 9, 2013 PI -- meeting with SNAs FM KISHIDA & DM following 2+2 meetings ONODERA meet with KISHIDA and ONODERA ask for NAKAIMA acceptance of plan; NAKAIMA reiterates demand for Futenma to be moved outside Okinawa. Oct 9/10, 2013 FM KISHIDA meets with 10 b/c they will benefit. local business groups, who offer "The groups were led by Yukikazu support for the FRF plan. KOKUBA, head of Kokuba Gumi Go., Okinawa's largest general contractor and a major business and political force in the prefecture." Nov 18, 2013 PI -- meeting with SNAs CCS SUGA Yoshihide meets tells him that "it is impossible" to Okinawa LDP chapter leader, move the Futenma air station out of Masatoshi ONAGA. Okinawa Prefecture Nov 19 and Tensions -- SN leader Nago City assembly officially 22, 2013 behavior backs Mayor INAMINE's written opinion to oppose the relocation, to be submitted to the OPG by Nov. 29 Nov 22, 2013 Ceremony to mark new Present: Japan Parliamentary Senior boundary between base and Vice-Minister of Defense, Ryota Ginowan. TAKEDA; Ginowan City Mayor, Atsushi SAKIMA; the U.S. Consul General, Naha, Alfred R. MAGLEBY; and Maj. Gen. Charles L. HUDSON, the commanding general of MCIPAC Nov 25, 2013 Tensions -- SN leader 5 Okinawa LDP lawmakers Konosuke KOKUBA and Natsumi behavior decide to accept relocation and HIGA had vowed in House of to seek authorization from Councillors election (July) to oppose NAKAIMA for land the relocation but reversed their reclamation. stance. Nov 27, 2013 Tensions -- SN leader up to 14 Naha city LDP behavior members resign from the party in protest of chapter's decision. Nov, 2013 China declares "Air Defense declares "Air Defense Identification Identification Zone" in East Zone" in East China Sea (near China Sea (near Senkaku) Senkaku) Nov 28, 2013 Ginowan Mayor Sakima asks FM KISHIDA Fumio and DM ONODERA Itsunori to return the land used for Futenma asap. Nov 29, 2013 Governor NAKAIMA first meeting. NAKAIMA asks Ambassador KENNEDY KENNEDY to work to reduce burden. Nov 29, 2013 PI -- meeting with SNAs Abe meets with the head of the Abe emphasises that most important Okinawa chapter of the LDP, thing is to remove danger for citizens. Masatoshi ONAGA.

53 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Dec 1, 2013 Tensions -- SN leader LDP Okinawa chapter changes Chapter head Masatoshi ONAGA behavior stance to accept FRF in Henoko makes statement that it is the only (decided on Nov 17, formalised viable option and says that he will on this day) step down as head of the chapter to take responsibility. Dec 6, 2013 PI -- request US govt and GOJ agree to move incorporation air-to-surfact firing drills from Torishima (Okinawa) to SDF Misawa base.

Dec 9, 2013 Iwakuni mayor FUKUDA due to central govt request accepts transfer of KC-130 (apparently to help reduce burden on planes Okinawa, to "help reduce risks of the Futenma base") Dec 11, 2013 US Congress (both houses) approve spending to relocate 4000 armed services committees Marines to Guam. Dec 17, 2013 PI -- meeting with SNAs Abe meets with NAKAIMA / other Okinawa officials; the governor sets his conditions.

(NB: NAKAIMA was hospitalised. He attended the meeting in a wheelchair.) Dec 20, 2013 PI -- request Diet allocates 346 billion yen (NAKAIMA asked for budget to be incorporation for Okinawa budget maintained above 300 billion each year for 5? years) Dec 23, 2013 NAKAIMA's conditions made 1. Futenma operations to be halted public. within 5 years 2. Makiminato service area to be returned in 7 years 3. revision of SOFA so that investigators can enter bases 4. That 340.8billion yen is secured for Okinawa's budget Dec 25, 2013 PI -- meeting with SNAs ABE meets with NAKAIMA signals that NAKAIMA is preparing again, and makes a number of to approve the reclamation promises, including that half of the Osprey drills be moved outside of Okinawa.

Dec 23-25, PI -- request US govt and GOJ agree to 2013 incorporation negotiate an environmental pack for bases. Dec 27, 2013 Tensions -- SN leader Governor NAKAIMA (OPG) 2000 protesters gathered outside behavior grants GOJ permit for land prefectural office after reclamation announcement. Jan 6, 2014 Tensions -- SN leader Naha Municipal Assembly behavior adopts resolution protesting NAKAIMA's decision to approve land reclamation work. Jan 9, 2014 Tensions -- SN leader Nago Mayor INAMINE behavior reiterates intent to do everything in his power to block base construction.

54 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Jan 10, 2014 Tensions -- SN leader Okinawa Prefectural Assembly opposition parties (also?) submitted behavior approves written opinion that non-binding resolution calling for the approval should be NAKAIMA to be sacked, which was scrapped; passed. Jan 17, 2014 Jiji Press survey reveals that amongst LDP, 64.5 vs. 19.2; 43.4% of Japanese support Komeito, 30 vs. 42 relocation to Henoko, and 30.9% don't.

Jan 16?, 2014 LDP Secretary-General Ishiba promises 50 billion yen fund for local development in Nago (in support of Suematsu) Jan 19, 2014 Tensions -- public vote / Incumbent anti-agreement ~75% turnout, 19,000+ voted for election results mayor, INAMINE Susumu is INAMINE vs. 15,000+ for probase reelected in Nago City, challenger Suematsu Bunshin. Okinawa. Exit polls show that 70% of voters (New Komeito let supporters opposed the relocation plan, whilst vote for either candidate.) just 14.7% supported it. 59.4% said that they do not expect much from Ishiba's offer for financial support.

INAMINE says that he will reject negotiations with the central govt. Jan 21, 2014 PI -- request Ministry of Defense, Japan winning bids to be selected by March incorporation invites tenders for work related 31 to Futenma construction Jan 29, 2014 Keiko ITOKAZU, head of the also met former senator Jim WEBB Okinawa Social Mass Party, to ask for his support. meets US officials in Washington and relays Webb said he does not agree with opposition. those contending that the current relocation plan is the only feasible plan, according to Itokazu.

WEBB also agreed to cooperate with Itokazu and others calling for a review to the relocation plan, she said at a news conference. Feb 12, 2014 Nago Mayor INAMINE meets KENNEDY also met Ginowan mayor Ambassador to Japan SAKIMA and NAKAIMA; she took KENNEDY in OKinawa and no position on the relocation plan reiterates his opposition. (though she apparently expressed appreciation for NAKAIMA's decision allowing the plan to move forward). Feb 16, 2014 Tensions -- SN leader Okinawa Pref. Assembly passes "An Article 100 commission is a behavior motion (proposed by special entity set up under Article 100 opposition) to set up Article 100 of the Local Autonomy Law for Commission. investigating suspicions or scandals over administrative works of local governments."

55 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Feb 18, 2014 PI -- meeting with SNAs GOJ and OPG hold first Yoshihide meeting to discuss reduction of Suga, Foreign Minister Fumio burden KISHIDA, Defense Minister , and , state minister for Okinawa, attended the meeting, while NAKAIMA and Ginowan Mayor Atsushi SAKIMA represented the Okinawa side. Feb 19, 2014 Tensions -- SN leader Investigative committee of the Although the committee has no behavior Okinawa prefectural assembly authority to overturn the approval of starts probe on reclamation the governor, opposition parties hope approval. to put political pressure on him, sources said.

Mar 17, 2014 Okinawa Vice-governor TAKARA made the remarks as the Kurayoshi TAKARA urges GOJ government held the first meeting of to close operations at Futenma a newly launched working group to by 2018 discuss how to reduce the burden on Okinawa of hosting the bulk of U.S. military bases. Mar 28, 2014 PI -- request Okinawa announced as a 'tourist alongside other SEZ, which are incorporation Special Economic Zone' focused on different areas like medicine. But details will not be worked out until summer, implementation to come later. Apr 10, 2014 PI -- request Lt. Gen. John WISSLER, (response to NAKAIMA's request incorporation commander of forces in for it to be closed within 5 years) Okinawa, rules out possibility of Marines leaving Futenma before FRF is built.

Apr 11, 2014 Defense Ministry (Okinawa City has until May 12 to respond. bureau) files 6 requests with Nago City to use port to store building materials. Apr 15, 2014 PI -- request US gov and GOJ confirm plan incorporation to move Osprey training outside Okinawa. Apr 19, 2014 Tensions -- civil society protest at Henoko, protesters prevented offshore drilling survey protests row out to the site. planned for this day? Apr, 22, 2014 Stars and Stripes Report notes that numbers at the sit-in, which had decreased from 70-80 to 25, have risen again to around 50. Apr 27, 2014 Tensions -- public vote / Sachio KUWAE (LDP-backed Kuwae is also a former prefectural election results independent) defeats left-backed assembly member; Shimabukuro a independent Yoshinori former deputy mayor of Okinawa Shimabukuro in Okinawa City city? mayoral election. Turnout 57.73%,

Apr 30, 2014 PI -- request Mark LIPPERT, principal (NB: the day after, Lippert is named incorporation advisor to Defense Secretary new US ambassador to Skorea) Chuck Hagel confirms that US will work with Japan towards 5- year goal.

56 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details May 11, 2014 Tensions -- SN leader Nago city asks MoD for the day before the deadline for behavior corrections to application to use resubmission, the city sent the port ministry a letter pointing out deficiencies in the ministry's application papers, stating, "Unless these deficiencies were corrected, we won't be able to proceed with our screenings of the application."

May 15-24, Tensions -- SN leader Nago Mayor INAMINE makes May 18: NY, audience of 60 2014 behavior trip to US to protest base May 19: Washington? , relocation also conveyed his stance to Peter HEMSCH, deputy director of the Office of Japanese Affairs under the State Department.

May 24: "When Mr. INAMINE was asked at a news conference whether he found any sympathetic ears on his trip, it was hard for him to say. ''This is a Japanese domestic issue for the U.S. people,'' he conceded. A member of his delegation said that arranging a meeting with the Department of Defense was ''impossible.'' The highest-ranking executive branch official with whom they met was the deputy of the Japan desk at the Department of State.

They had a little bit more luck on Capitol Hill, where they had an audience with staff members from the offices of eight representatives and three senators, including Barbara Boxer, Democrat of California; Tom Coburn, Republican of Oklahoma; and Kirsten Gillibrand, Democrat of New York. May 16,2014 Tensions -- civil society Peace March in Henoko (over will walk down to Futenma over protests 1000 ppl, incl. mainlanders) three days? 2000+ ppl in Futenma May 20, 2014 PI -- request The Nago Fisheries Cooperative The Co-op had acquiesced to the incorporation Association and the ministry's landfill in March 2013. Okinawa Defense Bureau sign agreement for compensation of several billion yen for loss of fishing rights in Henoko. May 22, 2014 Tensions -- civil society 70 conservationist groups issue protests statement seeking cancellation of relocation. June 7-13 Tensions -- SN leader Okinawa deputy governor behavior Kurayoshi TAKARA visits US

57 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Jun 20, 2014 PI -- request US govt and GOJ agree to incorporation widen no-entry area to cover some 5,618,000 square meters of waters off the Marine's Camp Schwab in Henoko. Jun 23, 2014 Okinawa Governor NAKAIMA he had called for it in previous years does not call for relocation on this day marking the anniversary outside Okinawa of end of Battle of Okinawa. Jun 25, 2014 Tensions -- SN leader Nago City Assembly passes behavior resolution protesting expansion of no-entry area Jun 28, 2014 Tensions -- SN leader 20 heads of municipalities in behavior Okinawa offer support to NAKAIMA to run for governor. July 17, 2014 Tensions -- SN leader OPG okays drilling survey for behavior seafloor in Oura Bay July 27, 2014 Tensions -- civil society "all Okinawa united" rally held 2000 people attend. (Capacity of hall protests in Ginowan City Hall 1200) Aug 7, 2014 PI -- request US govt rejects Japan's request "The U.S. fears that if the Ospreys incorporation to move Osprey out of Okinawa are relocated from the Futenma air base to Saga Airport continued for an extended period, it would add fuel to the argument that the Henoko relocation is unnecessary."

Only training will be moved. Aug 8, 2014 Okinawa prefectural chapter of b/c these members ignored the LDP formally expels 11 directive from the national chapter members of Naha City's and backed ONAGA to run for assembly governor. Another member (Kiyoshi SENAGA) leaves on his own accord, as advised by the LDP Aug 15, 2014 Pentagon submits the Master Congress had asked the department to Plan for the Henoko move to submit the master plan, which Congress outlines construction schedules and costs for necessary facilities and infrastructure in Guam, before deciding whether to lift a freeze on the execution of the budget for the Guam redeployment.

Pentagon wants freeze lifted in Oct. Aug 17, 2014 Okinawa Defense Bureau GOJ has set an always off-limits begins seabed survey at Henoko water area in Oura Bay. (Aug 14, protests also begin, but are blocked by JCG patrol boats) Buoys are being set up to keep protesters out.

Aug 22, 2014 Naha Municipal Assembly At an extraordinary assembly adopts statement criticising GOJ meeting, the statement was approved pushing ahead by a majority of assembly members, including members from New Komeito, the ruling coalition partner of the Liberal Democratic Party.

58 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details Aug 23, 2014 Tensions -- civil society 3600 people march on Henoko "The event was organized by local protests to protest. peace groups and opposition groups in the prefectural assembly, which brought participants to Nago in more than 30 chartered buses." (993) Aug 28, 2014 Tensions -- SN leader OPG approves GOJ's The drilling project, covering around behavior application to demolish a reef as 172 hectares, will be completed by part of relocation March 31, 2017, according to an application filed by the local bureau of the Defense Ministry on July 14

The Defense Ministry is under orders to suspend the construction project if water pollution occurs, and has been urged not to disturb local fisheries. Nov 16, 2014 Okinawa gubernatorial election Results: * ONAGA Takeshi (Anti-base) Komeito decides not to back 360,820 any candidate (so voters are free NAKAIMA Hirokazu (former to vote for whomever they Governor) 261,076 chose) For Mayor of Naha * SHIROMA Mikiko (Anti-base) 101,052 YONEDA Kanetosh (supported by LDP-Komeito) 57,768

For the Prefectural Assembly member from Naha * HIGA Mizuki (Anti-base) 74,427 YAMAKAWA Noriji (LDP) 61,940

For the Prefectural Assembly member from Nago *GUSHIKEN Toru (Anti-base) 15,374 SUEMATSU Bunshin (LDP) 14,281″ Dec 14, 2014 Tensions -- public vote / Japanese national elections Non-LDP politicians are win all four election results seats in Okinawa. The LDP-backed candidates all obtain seats through PR. Feb 5, 2015 US DoD proposed a 2.5 times increase in spending for transfer of 4000 Marines to Guam (=$126m) Feb 6, 2015 Tensions -- SN leader Okinawa Governor ONAGA behavior sets up committee to review NAKAIMA's decision. Feb 13, 2015 Tensions -- SN leader Okinawa Governor ONAGA However, this is too late as 'all the behavior orders that Okinawa Defense slabs have already been laid'. (The Bureau stop placing concrete work began on Jan 27.) slabs onto coral reef (for floats).

April 4, 2015 PI -- request West Futenma Housing Area one of the few (only) areas where the incorporation (51 ha) is returned land is 'unconditionally returned'

59 Date Type of indicator Incident/Development Further Details July 13, 2015 Tensions -- SN leader Okinawa prefectural assembly behavior passes ordinance aimed at preventing the use of 'outside' soil for the land reclamation. Aug 4, 2015 CCS SUGA announces that work on Henoko would be halted for a month. Sep 7, 2015 GOJ announces that the work on Henoko will be restarted, following the one month of negotiations. Oct 14, 2015 Tensions -- SN leader Governor ONAGA revokes the According to ONAGA, he made the behavior land reclamation permit. decision bedcause the one month of talks did not bring the two sides any closer. Oct 27, 2015 GOJ cancels ONAGA's GOJ to resume construction at decision. Henoko as Okinawa appeals the government's actions. Nov 12, 2015 GOJ resumes boring survey work at Henoko, to opposition by Okinawa's leaders and people. Dec 5, 2015 US ambassador to Japan As requested by local municipalities KENNEDY and CCS SUGA => to widen roads and help ease announce that 2 slivers of land congestion. will be returned by March 2018.

60 Part 2: MV-22 Osprey Activity in Okinawa, 2012—2016

The data from which Table A7 and graph A1 were constructed was obtained from the website of the Japanese Ministry of Defense, “Kikaku-bu kara no Oshirase,” accessed November 17, 2018, http://www.mod.go.jp/rdb/okinawa/07oshirase/kikaku/index.html.

Table A7: Take-off and landing data for the MV-22 Osprey, MCAS Futenma 2012—2017

Month Osprey Take-offs Osprey Landings 2012/10 48 48 2012/11 65 65 2012/12 60 59 2013/01 62 63 2013/02 33 31 2013/03 70 72 2013/04 39 35 2013/05 65 69 2013/06 58 50 2013/07 31 31 2013/08 17 15 2013/09 75 84 2013/10 104 103 2013/11 83 74 2013/12 78 88 2014/01 108 104 2014/02 107 102 2014/03 73 70 2014/04 39 35 2014/05 65 69 2014/06 58 50 2014/07 31 31 2014/08 17 15 2014/09 75 84 2014/10 104 103 2014/11 83 74 2014/12 78 88 2015/01 108 104 2015/02 107 102 2015/03 73 70 2015/04 82 85 2015/05 75 83 2015/06 120 106 2015/07 43 43 2015/08 67 79 2015/09 117 111 2015/10 133 141 2015/11 107 107 2015/12 138 138 2016/01 96 82 2016/02 80 86 2016/03 118 126 2016/04 92 92 2016/05 110 110 2016/06 188 188 2016/07 146 138 2016/08 80 78 2016/09 45 42 2016/10 80 91 2016/11 114 112 2016/12 139 130 2017/01 142 136 2017/02 131 133 2017/03 103 95

61 Figure A1: Line chart showing trends in Osprey Activity, MCAS Futenma 2012-2017

62