Agreement Without Implementation: Military Bases and Alliance Tensions in Japan Kerri Ng ~Appendix~ Part 1: Data for Figures 9.5 and 9.7 Figures 9.1 and 9.2 are visual summaries of the data compiled and analyzed in the six tables below. The first three tables deal with the sub-case of MCAS Iwakuni (Figure 9.1); the levels of tensions and preference incorporation in Tables 1 and 2 are based on qualitative analysis of the data in Table 3. The last three tables deal with the sub-case of MCAS Futenma (Figure 9.2); the levels of tensions and preference incorporation in Tables 4 and 5 are based on qualitative analysis of the data in Table 6. Measurements Assessment of the levels of tensions and preference incorporation are carried out on a 5-point scale, from 1 (lowest) to 5 (highest). Each is based on three indicators as outlined in Table 2.2 (p.61) and Table 9.2 (p.230), copied below. Table 2.2/9.2: Indicators for Tensions and Preference Incorporation Observation Tensions Preference Incorporation Indicators Size/intensity of protests No./frequency of consultations Results of elections/referenda Breadth of actors involved Subnational leader behavior Were requests incorporated? A more detailed description of these indicators, available in Chapter 2 Alliance Theory and Basing Politics (pp. 59-61), is briefly summarized here. The indicators for tensions are the number and size of protests rallies, the results of major public polls such as elections and referenda, and the cooperativeness of subnational leaders. The indicators for preference incorporation are the number and frequency of consultations between national and subnational actors, the breadth of actors involved, and whether and to what extent requests were incorporated into the agreements. In the analysis chapter (9), this data is used to summarise the levels of both tensions and PI over each agreement-implementation sequence, using the following descriptors. LOW (1-2) – MODERATE (3) – HIGH (4-5) and movement between these states. 1 Table A1: Levels of Tensions in Iwakuni City and Yamaguchi Prefecture, 1990-2015 Year Indicator Summary Overall level of tensions (1-5) 1990 SN leader behavior NA 1 Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 1991 SN leader behavior NA 1 Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 1992 SN leader behavior NA 1 Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 1993 SN leader behavior NA 1 Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 1994 SN leader behavior NA 1 Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 1995 SN leader behavior NA 2 Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 1996 SN leader behavior LOW 2 (SACO (1) Yamaguchi Governor acquiesces immediately to the report) transfer of KC-130, on the condition that it doesn't reinforce/strengthen the functions of the base. (2) Iwakuni Mayor KIFUNE initially opposed, but reverses decision shortly afterwards. Protests LOW (1) 1 small-scale protest (4,000 residents = less than 5% of population), staged to coincide with US SecDef PERRY 24- hour visit to Japan. Elections/Referenda LOW (2) Sekinari NII (LDP-supported) is elected Governor. Does not oppose the KC-130 transfer. 1997 SN leader behavior LOW 1 (1) Jan: Iwakuni Mayor KIFUNE accepts transfer (2) Feb: one month later, Governor NII and another local SN leader accpet the transfer. Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda NA 2 Year Indicator Summary Overall level of tensions (1-5) 1998 SN leader behavior LOW 1 (1) Governor NII emphasizes condition of not increasing the burden on Iwakuni following reported rumor that MCAS Futenma units would be tranfered to MCAS Iwakuni. Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda NA 1999 SN leader behavior NA 1 Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda LOW (1) Katsusuke IHARA is elected as Mayor of Iwakuni. No base related controversies at this time 2000 SN leader behavior NONE recorded 1 Protests LOW (1) local discontent registered in relation to short notice for FCLP drills at Iwakuni (moved from Iwo Jima b/c of the weather), but not on the level of formal protest actions. Elections/Referenda NA 2001 SN leader behavior LOW 1 (1) Officials from Iwakuni and four other municipal govts request that the US military moves FCLP drills to Iwo Jima. Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 2002 SN leader behavior LOW 1 (1) Yamaguchi prefectural govt and other SN actors start submitting formal requests that MCAS Iwakuni be used as a joint civilian-military airport, as was the case in early years after WW2. Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 2003 SN leader behavior LOW 1 (1) Governor NII sets up task force in prefectural govt to deal with security matters Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda Iwakuni Mayor IHARA relected. 2004 SN leader behavior MODERATE 2 (1) Both Governor NII and Mayor IHARA respond negatively to the rumors of the DPRI-associated transfers, and emphasize that the functions of MCAS Iwakuni should not be "strengthened." Protests NA Elections/Referenda NA 3 Year Indicator Summary Overall level of tensions (1-5) 2005 SN leader behavior LOW~MODERATE 3 (DPRI (1) Mar: Iwakuni City officials continue trying to verify interim rumors about the transfers to Iwakuni; express report) dissatisfaction with Tokyo's actions and secrecy. (2) Jun: Iwakuni assembly passes resolution against any transfers (3) Business community representatives, however, willing to acquiesce in exchange for economic benefits. (4) Oct: SN leaders all express discontent at not having been consulted. Yamaguchi Governor NII argues that the CVW-5 transfer ammounts to transferring noise from Atsugi. On Nov 16, Iwakuni Mayor IHARA expresses formal opposition to the transfer. Protests MODERATE (1) Scattered protests in response to leaks/reports that facilities will relocate to their area. (2) There were also protests and praise in response to the DPRI interim report. Elections/Referenda NA 2006 SN leader behavior MODERATE~HIGH 4 (1) Iwakuni Mayor IHARA uses Mar referendum and Apr election results as mandate for stringent stance against the CVW-5 transfers. (2) Yamaguchi Governor NII and, from Oct, the Iwakuni City assembly, are both in favor of the transfer in exchange for economic subsidies. Protests No major protest actions recorded Elections/Referenda MODERATE (moves from opposed to for) (1) Mar: Iwakuni City holds non-binding referendum on the transfers. 51.3% of eligible voters (83% of votes cast with 58% turnout) oppose the CVW-5 transfer. (2) However, business community opposed the referendum; and 6 of the 7 towns that merged with Iwakuni one week following the referendum acquiesced to the transfers. (3) Apr: Iwakuni Mayor IHARA relected following merger of municipalities. (4) Oct: Citizens give conservatives that support transfer a majority in the Iwakuni City assembly elections. 2007 SN leader behavior MODERATE~HIGH 4 (1) Iwakuni Mayor IHARA remains opposed throughout the year. He is the only holdout. (2) Mar: Iwakuni City Assembly passes resolution supporting transfers, on condition that FCLP drills will never be permanently based at MCAS Iwakuni. (3) Jul: Governor NII gives IHARA deadine on the Atago Hills development. The Iwakuni City Business and Commerce Association also calls on IHARA to accept the transfer to guarantee that the airport will be opened. Protests No major protest actions recorded Elections/Referenda NA 4 Year Indicator Summary Overall level of tensions (1-5) 2008 SN leader behavior MODERATE=> LOW 3 (1) IHARA resigned in Dec 2007 with the intention of using the election as the last 'referendum'. He loses to the LDP- supported FUKUDA. (2) Mar: New mayor FUKUDA officially accepts the transfer. He later moves on to the task of ensuring that local requests/demands are heard. (3) Iwakuni City has Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda LOW (1) Feb: LDP-backed FUKUDA wins Iwakuni Mayoral election (2) Aug: Governor NII is reelected. 2009 SN leader behavior MODERATE 3 (1) Dec: Yamaguchi Prefecture Govt / Gov NII sets aside Atago Hills sale, due to fears that Iwakuni is being considered potential site for Futenma relocation Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda NA (1) Aug: Japanese general election has little to do directly with Iwakuni (though HATOYAMA's pledge to review Futenma Agreement creates uncertainty about Iwakuni, particularly with regards to the concern that it is a candidate site for the FRF.) 2010 SN leader behavior MODERATE 3 (1) Mar: Iwakuni City Mayor and vice mayor reiterate opposition to Iwakuni being a candidate for the FRF. (2) Throughout the year, Gov NII and Mayor FUKUDA also keep submitting to GOJ local demands/requests re: the Atago Hills project. Protests LOW (1) May: protest rally of 5,000 people, organized by former mayor IHARA. Elections/Referenda NA 2011 SN leader behavior LOW~MODERATE 2 (1) Throughout the year, Gov NII and Mayor FUKUDA keep submitting demands/requests. In particular, they emphasise that MCAS Iwakuni must not receive more Marines from Futenma. (2) But they also cooperate to facilitate understanding amongst city residents (3) Nov: Gov NII and Mayor FUKUDA finally agree to the sale of the Atago Hills development site. Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda NA 5 Year Indicator Summary Overall level of tensions (1-5) 2012 SN leader behavior MODERATE~HIGH 3 (1) Feb: Gov NII freezes sale of Atago Hills project unless Iwakuni is removed from transfer list for Marines from Okinawa. He reverses the decision the following month after the US and Japan agree not to transfer any more Marines to Iwakuni (aside from the KC-130 unit from SACO) (2) Jun: Iwakuni City Assembly passes resolution against Osprey deployment Protests NONE recorded Elections/Referenda LOW (1) Jan: FUKUDA is reelected over former Mayor IHARA. 2013 SN leader behavior MODERATE 2 (1) Oct: FUKUDA initially shows opposition to the formal announcement that the KC-130 unit will be transferred by 2014, because little progress has been made on relocating Futenma within Okinawa.