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Appendix C-2 Water Balance 2008 (PDF) Golder Associates Inc. 18300 NE Union Hill Road, Suite 200 Redmond, Washington 98052 Telephone: (425) 883 0777 Fax: (425) 882 5498 TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM TO: Joe Simmler and Larry Grimm., OTAK, Inc. DATE: December 19, 2008 FR: Alyssa Neir and Carl Einberger, L.Hg. OUR REF: 083-93430.001 ESTIMATED AVERAGE ANNUAL WATER BALANCE, GREATER HALL LAKE, RE: HALL CREEK, CHASE LAKE, ECHO LAKE, LAKE BALLINGER AND MCALEER CREEK WATERSHED This technical memorandum describes the estimated average annual water balance for the greater Hall Lake, Hall Creek, Chase Lake, Echo Lake, Lake Ballinger, and McAleer Creek Watershed (‘entire watershed’) and the portion of the watershed that drains to Lake Ballinger (‘Lake Ballinger watershed’). The entire watershed is comprised of twelve subbasins that drain to Lake Washington and includes the Lake Ballinger watershed and the downstream watersheds. The entire watershed covers approximately 5,249 acres. The Lake Ballinger watershed covers approximately 3,566 acres and includes the drainage to Hall Lake, Hall Creek, Echo Lake and Lake Ballinger. Estimated water balances were developed for forested conditions (pre-development conditions) and existing conditions for both the entire watershed and Lake Ballinger watershed. The estimated water balances were then compared to provide an estimate of the effect of development on components of the water balance for the entire watershed and the portion associated with the Lake Ballinger watershed. 1.0 ANNUAL WATER BALANCE MODEL A Geographic Information System (GIS) model was developed based on a series of overlay calculations to develop a water balance and to identify evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, and surface runoff components of the water balance under forested land use conditions (assuming no development in the watershed) and existing land use conditions (development as of 2008). The model incorporates GIS information on surficial geology, precipitation, and land use. These data are linked using the relationship between surficial geology and groundwater recharge rates developed by Thomas et al. (1997) (Figure 1) and the effective impervious area (EIA) factors used in the 2002 Marshland Tributaries and Sunnyside Creek Drainage Needs Report (Snohomish County, 2002) (Table 1). The land use data used for this model was developed through interpretation of land cover data provided by Otak (on November 25, 2008). The land cover data is the product of a satellite data land cover classification based on spectral signature, with a group of pixels with similar spectral signature defining a specific land cover. When reviewing this data, it appeared that Hall Lake, Echo Lake and Lake Ballinger were not entirely classified as water, based on the pixel interpretation. To correct for this, the water component of the model was redefined with a more conservative approach, with all area within the lakes correctly reclassified as water. These boundaries were delineated using Edmonds East 1:24,000 USGS topographic map. OFFICES ACROSS AFRICA, AUSTRALIA, EUROPE, NORTH AMERICA AND SOUTH AMERICA December 19, 2008 -2- 083-93430.001 The average annual water balance is calculated based on the average annual precipitation rate for each land use unit (one land use unit corresponds to one pixel of the land use dataset): PA = RR + ET+ SR, where PA= Average annual precipitation rate from PRISM (inches/year (in/yr)) RR = Groundwater recharge rate (in/yr) ET = Evapotranspiration rate (in/yr) SR = Surface runoff rate (in/yr) These rates were then converted into volumes using the area of the pixel ((3.28)2 feet2) and summed for the twelve subbasins. 1.1 Precipitation A detailed map of precipitation was incorporated based on the PRISM Model (Spatial Climate Analysis Service at Oregon State University and Climate Source, LLC, 2000). PRISM is an analytical model that distributes point measurements of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation to a geographic grid of 4 kilometers by 4 kilometers. These grids are produced in a GIS-compatible latitude-longitude grid or a gridded map projection. The PRISM map represents average annual precipitation from 1960 to 1991. 1.2 Groundwater Recharge Groundwater recharge within the subbasins was calculated using precipitation, surficial geology, and land use data available in a GIS format and a series of calculations developed in the GIS ModelBuilder tool. The model calculates the amount of groundwater recharge associated with each land use unit to obtain an area-based volume that can then be summed for the land uses located within the subbasins. Groundwater recharge will generally discharge to surface water after some amount of retention time in the subsurface. Our approach is focused on estimating changes in natural recharge to groundwater, but it is not intended to address the ultimate timing, location, and amount of any groundwater discharge to surface water. Such an analysis would require more sophisticated numerical modeling that is beyond the scope of this study. The groundwater recharge rate for each land use is a function of the average annual precipitation rate, surficial geology or soil type, and extent of impervious surface. The following equation is used to determine the groundwater recharge rate: RR = RN*(1-EIA), where RR = Groundwater recharge rate for land use unit (in/yr) RN= Natural recharge (in/yr) EIA = Effective impervious area factor The natural recharge rate (RN) is dependent upon the average annual precipitation rate and surficial geology. The USGS developed a relationship for natural recharge based on surficial geology in western Snohomish County (Thomas et al, 1997). Linear equations were developed based on the information in Figure 1. These relationships are provided below: 121908an1_Water Balance Model Technical Memo.docx Golder Associates December 19, 2008 -3- 083-93430.001 Till: RN = 0.5*PA - 5 Glacial Outwash: RN = 0.875*PA – 11.25, where RN= Natural recharge rate (in/yr) PA= Average annual precipitation rate from PRISM (in/yr) For any land use unit, the natural recharge can be calculated by linking the land use unit with the surficial geology and precipitation maps, and calculating volume based on the pixel size, surficial geology (till- or outwash-equivalent), and precipitation. The surficial geology, grouped into outwash- or till-equivalents, is presented in Figure 2. Grouping of surficial geology units into either higher recharge outwash-equivalent material or lower recharge till-equivalent material was based on interpretation of surficial geology mapped by Booth et al. (2004). The EIA factor represents the fraction of natural recharge that does not reach the groundwater (i.e., becomes surface runoff or evapotranspires). Snohomish County has developed EIA tables for categories of existing development (Snohomish County, 2002). The EIA is dependent to some extent on the age of development. Table 1 summarizes EIA factors used by Snohomish County for more recent development. Older residential areas frequently have a smaller EIA because, for example, roof downspouts may be discharged to splashpads instead of being tied into the storm drain system. Roads in older areas may have a smaller area of pavement but the same overall width of right-of-way (smaller gross impervious area). Roads in older areas may also have relatively ineffective open ditch drainage (low effective percentage) as compared to curb and gutter for new developments. The EIA factors for more recent developments are used in this model, because much of the watershed consists of roads with curbs and gutters and rooftops are more likely to be tied into the storm drain system. Figure 3 presents the land cover categories associated with each EIA factor for the existing conditions scenario. The EIA factors in Table 1 are assumed to represent the fraction of natural recharge that would not become groundwater recharge. For vegetation land cover (e.g., forest, pasture, grass), the EIA is equal to zero (the land use unit is not impervious) and recharge represents the natural recharge rate. This is the assumption used in the forested conditions scenario where all the land not covered by surface water is assumed to be forested. 1.3 Evapotranspiration The fraction of natural recharge that does not reach the groundwater was assumed to either evapotranspire or runoff. Evapotranspiration rates for the forested and existing conditions in the watershed were used to identify the fraction of precipitation that evapotranspires. Table 2 identifies the evapotranspiration rates for forested and existing conditions. 1.4 Surface Runoff Surface runoff is calculated as the remaining precipitation that does not recharge the groundwater or evapotranspire. SR = PA - RR - ET, where PA= Average annual precipitation rate from PRISM (in/yr) RR = Groundwater recharge rate (in/yr) ET = Evapotranspiration rate (in/yr) SR = Surface runoff rate (in/yr) 121908an1_Water Balance Model Technical Memo.docx Golder Associates December 19, 2008 -4- 083-93430.001 2.0 MODEL RESULTS 2.1 Forested Conditions Results The forested conditions scenario assumes that there is no development in the watershed and that the land in the watershed not covered by surface water is completely forested. Table 3 presents the estimated water balance results for the Lake Ballinger watershed, the entire watershed and each subbasin. Based on the model results, the majority of the average annual precipitation that does not evapotranspire (84% and 87% of the remaining amount in the Lake Ballinger watershed and entire watershed, respectively) is estimated to recharge groundwater. This water then ultimately either discharges after retention in the groundwater system to surface water bodies in the watershed or, to a more limited extent, recharges deeper aquifers. 2.2 Existing Conditions Results The existing land use conditions scenario estimates the current average annual water balance based on existing development within the watershed. Table 4 presents the total acreages of each land use type within the Lake Ballinger watershed, the entire watershed and each subbasin. The proportion of the different types of land cover in the Lake Ballinger watershed and entire watershed are very similar (within 1 to 2%).
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