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Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin May 2000

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Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin May 2000 Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin May 2000 Volume 40 Number 2 Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin May 2000 Summary 115 Recent economic and financial developments Markets and operations 117 Box on international funding arbitrage 130 Box on money market instruments 133 The international environment 135 Box on world import proxy 139 Note on what recent movements in oil prices imply for world inflation 147 Research and analysis A comparison of long bond yields in the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany 150 Money, lending and spending: a study of the UK non-financial corporate sector and households 159 Speeches Monetary policy and the euro Speech by the Governor given to the Leeds and Bradford Chartered Institute of Bankers and Bradford Chamber of Commerce at the St George’s Hall, Bradford on 11 April 2000 168 The new economy and the old monetary economics Speech by Willem Buiter, member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, given to the Aberdeen Chamber of Commerce on 27 October 1999 173 The impact of the Internet on UK inflation Speech by Sushil B Wadhwani, member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, delivered at the London School of Economics on 23 February 2000 184 Monetary policy and the supply side Speech by John Vickers, Executive Director and Chief Economist, given at the Society of Business Economists in London on 15 March 2000 199 Volume 40 Number 2 Printed by Park Communications © Bank of England 2000 ISSN 0005-5166 The Quarterly Bulletin and Inflation Report Inflation Report The Inflation Report reviews developments in the UK economy and assesses the outlook for (published separately) UK inflation over the next two years in relation to the inflation target. The Report starts with a short overview section. The following four sections analyse developments in money and financial markets, demand and output, the labour market, and costs and prices respectively. The concluding sections present a summary of monetary policy since the February Report and an assessment of inflation prospects and risks. The Bank of England Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions is appended to the Report. Minutes of recent Monetary Policy Committee meetings are attached as an annex. Markets and operations This article reviews developments in international and domestic financial markets and (pages 117–34) describes Bank of England market operations in the period 30 December 1999 to 7 April 2000. It does not, however, repeat the review of developments over the century date change that was contained in the February 2000 Quarterly Bulletin. Official interest rates were raised by 50 basis points in the United Kingdom, the euro area and the United States during the review period. Nevertheless, market-based indicators of short-term interest rate expectations were little changed in all three areas. The US yield curve became inverted in January and early February, largely in response to news about changes in the prospective supply of US government securities. This development had relatively little impact on gilt yields, however. World equity markets became significantly more volatile during the period, with sharp falls in IT-related share prices occurring during March and early April. Exchange rate movements generally continued the patterns observed in 1999 Q4; the US dollar and sterling continued to appreciate, while the euro depreciated further. The international This article discusses developments in the world economy since the February 2000 environment Quarterly Bulletin, as well as the outlook for output and inflation over the next two years. (pages 135–49) Forecasts of world economic activity in 1999 have been revised up repeatedly over the last twelve months, and GDP growth for the year as a whole is now estimated to have been around 3.5%. Underlying this, activity was stronger than was earlier forecast in a broad range of countries. Oil and related energy prices continued to rise up to the middle of March, when OPEC member countries agreed to increase production. Evidence of stronger inflationary pressures has been seen in producer input and output prices, and to some extent in export prices. But further along the price chain consumer prices have generally risen by considerably less, although there has been some pick-up in inflation measures in the United States and euro area. Since the February 2000 Quarterly Bulletin, official interest rates in the United States and the euro area have been raised by 0.25 and 0.5 percentage points respectively, and are now at 6% and 3.75%. The Bank of Japan has maintained the zero interest rate policy implemented in February 1999. According to almost all forecasters, the medium-term outlook is for continued strength in the world economy, and most projections for GDP growth have been revised up since the previous Quarterly Bulletin. It is now not untypical to see projections for world GDP growth to rise by somewhat less than 4.5% in 2000 and around 4% in 2001. Research and analysis Research work published by the Bank is intended to contribute to debate, and is not (pages 150–67) necessarily a statement of Bank policy. A comparison of long bond yields in the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany (by Martin Brooke of the Bank’s Gilt-edged and Money Markets Division, and Andrew Clare and Ilias Lekkos of the Bank’s Monetary Instruments and Markets Division). Long-dated gilt yields are currently well below the comparable German and US government bond yields for the first time in many years. This article considers what factors are likely to have contributed to these changes in nominal rates of return. We conclude that much of the 115 Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin: May 2000 decline in long gilt yields can be attributed to a decline in UK inflation expectations since the mid-1970s. However, we find evidence to suggest that gilt yields have more recently also fallen in response to a significant reduction in net gilt issuance combined with an increase in demand for gilts from UK institutional investors. Money, lending and spending: a study of the UK non-financial corporate sector and households (by Andrew Brigden of the Bank’s Structural Economic Analysis Division, Alec Chrystal of the Bank’s Monetary Assessment and Strategy Division and Paul Mizen, consultant to the Bank’s Monetary Assessment and Strategy Division). Many empirical studies over the past three decades or so have reported estimates of the determinants of consumption, investment and the demand for money. This article summarises recent Bank work that seeks to understand more fully the demand for bank and building society loans, and the interactions between these borrowings and the demand for money and decisions to consume and invest. This work aims to enhance our understanding of the links between the monetary sector and real spending decisions. The contents page, with links to the articles in PDF format, is available at www.bankofengland.co.uk/qb/m00qbcon.htm The speeches contained in the Bulletin can be found at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches 116 Markets and operations This article reviews developments in international and domestic financial markets and describes Bank of England market operations in the period 30 December 1999 to 7 April 2000. It does not, however, repeat the review of developments over the century date change that was contained in the February 2000 Quarterly Bulletin. G Official interest rates were raised by 50 basis points in the United Kingdom, the euro area and the United States during the review period. Nevertheless, market-based indicators of short-term interest rate expectations were little changed in all three areas. G The US yield curve became inverted in January and early February, largely in response to news about changes in the prospective supply of US government securities. This development had relatively little impact on gilt yields, however. G World equity markets became significantly more volatile during the period, with sharp falls in IT-related share prices occurring during March and early April. G Exchange rate movements generally continued the patterns observed in 1999 Q4; the US dollar and sterling continued to appreciate, while the euro depreciated further. Chart 1 International markets US interest rates Per cent Short-term interest rates 17 February 2000 (a) 7.7 United States 7.3 7 April 2000 (a) 6.9 US short-term interest rates implied by eurodollar futures contracts expiring between 2000 and 2002 ended the period little changed 31 December 1999 (a) 6.5 from the end of 1999 (see Chart 1), indicating expectations of rates 1 Three-month $ Libor 6.1 rising from around 6 /2% in spring 2000 to around 7% by the end of the year. Implied interest rates rose in the first half of the period, 5.7 and declined thereafter (see Charts 1 and 2). Early in the year, 5.3 market participants saw the smooth passage of the century date Federal funds target rate change as removing one possible constraint on monetary policy, 4.9 making a rise in official interest rates more likely. In addition, the 4.5 strength of the US economy continued to surprise markets during 0.0 1998 99 2000 01 02 January; the December labour market and retail sales reports, Source: Bloomberg. consumer confidence, Q4 GDP and the employment cost index (a) Interest rates implied by eurodollar futures contracts at the dates (1) specified. From April 2000 onwards, the x-axis relates to contract were all stronger than the markets had expected and led interest expiry dates. rate expectations to rise. Outside forecasters generally revised up their forecasts for US GDP growth during the period as a whole Table A (see Table A). By the end of January, most market participants Consensus GDP forecasts for 2000 were expecting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to January March Difference raise the Federal funds target rate by 25 basis points at both its February and March meetings.
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