Image Courtesy: Getty Images C3S Issue Brief I The Port, and the Three Global Powers: China, USA, and India

By Arjun Gidwani Research Intern Chennai Centre For China Studies March 7 2020 About the Author:

Arjun Gidwani is currently an International Business Analyst based in Hyderabad and has more than 10 years of experience in Market Research, Industry and Sector Analysis, Trade analysis, Macroeconomic forecasting and Financial Analysis. He has earned his postgraduate degree from the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT), Delhi and has also completed his studies in Advertising Management and Public Relations from MICA, Ahmedabad. Specializing in research and strategy, he has worked on market entry strategies for Indian manufacturing companies into new geographic markets with a focus on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, revenue generation strategies for a Hyderabad based consultancy, and has been a member of the policy drafting Race Committee for the World Cup – Horseracing.

About C3S:

The Chennai Centre for China Studies (C3S), registered under the Tamil Nadu Societies Registration Act 1975 (83/2008 dated 4th April 2008), is a non-profit public policy think tank. We carry out in depth studies of developments relating to China with priority to issues of interest to India such as geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics of India-China relations, Chinas internal dynamics, border issues, Chinas relations with South Asian countries, prospects of trade, the evolution of Chinese politics and its impact on India and the world, ASEAN and SAARC relations, cultural links, etc. C3S attempts to provide a forum for dialogue with China scholars in India and abroad and give space for the expression of alternate opinions on China related topics. We also provide a database for research on China with special attention to information available in Chinese language. Additionally, events, lecture discussions and seminars are organised on topics of current interest.

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Abstract:

The Duqm Port is situated out of the Strait of Hormuz, in the middle of the Indian Ocean, opening directly into international waters and lies in the vicinity of the international trade route between Asia and Europe. The Duqm Port has a special importance as it lies along the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Indian Ocean and the .

The location is strategic as not only is it close to countries like Pakistan and India in South Asia; it is also easily accessible from East Africa. Oman joined the Belt and Road Initiative in 2018, thereby acquiring additional importance as China’s first base station in the Gulf. The China- Oman (Duqm) Industrial Park, a megaproject under the BRI that is nearing its first phase of completion is evidence of China’s interest in developing Duqm with the view to link several continents with the logistics and infrastructure built with Chinese investments. In March 2019, the United States signed an agreement with Oman to allow US military access to Omani facilities and ports in Duqm and .

This article seeks to:

- Understand the geography and demography of Oman and define the role played by the Duqm Project in the development of the Sultanate. - Understand the history, country-wise, of bilateral relations of China, USA and India with Oman and study their respective involvement in Duqm. - Define India’s current strategic position in the region, vis-à-vis US and China, through an analysis of the impact of its presence in the Duqm Port by studying the factors favorable and unfavorable to it.

The Sultanate of Oman: Understanding the Geography

The Sultanate of Oman is situated in the southeast of the Arabian Peninsula, bordering the United Arab , Saudi Sultanate of Oman (Political) source:mapsofworld.com Arabia, and Yemen. Its coastline extends for 3,165kms with an area of 310,000 sq. km. It is the third-largest country in the Peninsula with a population of 4,177,221 of which 2,332,243 are Omani nationals and 1,884,978 are expatriates. is the capital of Oman. Oman is divided into 11 (Muhafazah): Muscat, Musandam, Dhofar, Al Buraimi, Al Batina North and South, Ash Sharqiyyah North and South, Al Wusta and AdhDhahirah. These governorates are further divided into 61 administrative divisions/ referred to as Wilayats.

Duqm or Ad Duqm (Al Duqm), is one of the four Wilayats of the Al Wusta .

The Al Wusta Governorate

The governorate possesses a long and curving coastline. It is characterized by sandy beaches stretching for miles. Al Wusta is flanked by the Arabian Sea on the east, the Rub Al Khali (The Empty Quarter) on the west and the Dhofar governorate to the south. The Al Wusta Muhafazah consists of four Wilayats or provinces: Haima, Duqm, Mahout and Al Jazer. Haima is the capital of the Al Wusta Governorate. The settlements in the Al Wusta region are much smaller in comparison to the rest of Oman. As per the 2016 data of the National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI), Sultanate of Oman, the number of households in Al Wusta Governorate was just 7,174, which forms just 1.31% of the total households in Oman.

NO. OF HOUSEHOLDS IN THE AL WUSTA GOVERNORATE AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL NO. OF HOUSEHOLDS.

Source: NCSI, Sultanate of Oman

NO. OF HOUSEHOLDS IN THE 11 (2016) SOURCE: NATIONAL CENTRE FOR STATISTICS AND INFORMATION, SULTANATE OF OMAN

Source: NCSI, Sultanate of Oman Wilayat AlDuqm

Duqm (Al Duqm or Ad Duqm) is a port town on the Arabian Sea, a district of the Al Wusta Governorate located in central-eastern Oman. It was a small fishing settlement of the Janubah tribe on the southern coast of Oman. It is about 480 km from the capital of Oman, Muscat.

In February 1954, a party of soldiers of the MOFF (Muscat Oman Field Force) and geologists of the PDO (Petroleum Development Oman) arrived in Duqm and began the modern oil exploration of Central Oman. It is about 480km from the capital of Oman, Muscat.

Source: ias4sure.com

The Duqm Port is located on the southeastern seaboard of Oman, overlooking the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. It is situated out of the Strait of Hormuz, opening directly into international waters and lies in the vicinity of Source: Google Earth the international trade route between Asia and Europe. The Duqm Port is fast becoming an important part of the rapidly transforming Maritime landscape in the Middle East. Duqm Port Special Economic Zone

The Duqm Port is set within a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) which covers a land area of 2000 sq. km and 90 km of coastline along the Arabian Sea. The Duqm SEZ is the largest in the Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA) and among the largest in the world.

DUQM SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE AUTHORITY – SEZAD Source: duqm.gov.om

The Special Economic Zone Authority at Duqm (SEZAD)

The development, management, and regulation of the Duqm SEZ is overseen by the Duqm Special Economic Zone Authority (SEZAD).

SEZAD is a statutory institution empowered under the Royal Decree with regulatory, administrative, fiscal and economic responsibilities within Duqm. The Duqm SEZ is managed by a chairman with a Ministerial Rank. The Royal Decree grants SEZAD:

- The regulation rights of the SEZ - Registration of projects as per the Commercial Registration Law - Licensing of tourist projects - Issuance of environmental permits - Implementation of environment protection and anti-pollution law by taking necessary environmental measures

In 2013, SEZAD established its development/commercial subsidiary, Tatweer, which is the Omani company for the development of the SEZ. The primary responsibility of Tatweer is to provide project management services for all SEZAD funded projects in the SEZ.

Within the SEZ, the development of Duqm Port is being financed by the Omani government from the Sultanate budget and in conjunction with a loan of USD 265 million from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The Port of Duqm Company (PDC) is the port authority for the Duqm Port, which is a 50-50 joint venture between the government of Oman and the Consortium Antwerp Port. The PDC has a concession contract with SEZAD for 28 years to co- invest, develop, manage and operate the port. Subsequently, the development will be done in line with the “Oman Vision 2040”. Recently the government has also simultaneously established a separate entity, Oman Dry dock Company (ODC).

SEZ Development

The SEZ includes the following functional zones:

- Duqm Port; a deep-water port - A dry dock - A regional airport - A heavy/medium and light industries complex, including a refinery and petrochemical complex - A residential and commercial area - A tourism area - A logistics services area - An industrial fisheries complex with a port

The Duqm Port entered into its early operations phase in 2012 and currently remains in this stage with a fully functional commercial quay capable of handling heavy-lift project cargo, general cargo, dry bulk, and containers.

The security, commercial gate, and customs areas are currently under construction. The land- side infrastructure is expected to be in place by mid-2020, along with the liquid berth and liquid storage areas on the lee breakwater, which is currently under development by Duqm Refinery.

The wide range of services offered by the Duqm Port include the availability of marine pollution prevention facilities (MARPOL at the dry dock), freshwater supply, fuel bunkering, and domestic waste collection and treatment facilities.

The Role of the Duqm SEZ Project in the development of the Sultanate of Oman

(A) Driver of Economic Development The Duqm SEZ project can be counted as among the latest in a long line of plans dating back to the 1980s aimed at developing and populating barren parts of Oman. The population is unevenly distributed. The coastal regions, the Al Batinah plain, and the Muscat metropolitan area contain the largest concentration. Around 70% of Oman’s population resides within the thin 150-mile- long coastal strip in the north near Muscat.

The annual growth rate of Oman’s population has been high in recent years due to a high influx of immigrants. Expatriate workers are fairly evenly distributed between Indian and Bangladeshi people. Most of these people moved to the area due to an increase in the mega infrastructure projects in Oman that require large amounts of manpower.

As the infrastructure projects that have been causing a large increase Source: geo-ref.net in the population growth won’t last forever, the growth rate is expected to drop considerably. per the current projections, by the World Population Prospects, the population growth rate will peak in 2020 at approximately 4.16% and fall to 1.59% by 2025.

Though Oman has witnessed

Average Annual Rate of Population its fastest population growth Change (%) in at least fifty years, as we 8 6.77 can see in the graph, the 7 6 5.38 5.22 5 population growth is 3.95 3.8 3.92 3.83 4 3.59 projected to decline after 2.94 3 2.14 2.29 2.04 1.66 2020. 2 1 0.57 0

Change(%) Population of Annual Rate Avg. 5 year Period

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019, Online Edition. Rev. 1. Transit-Oriented Development (TOD)

Most of Northern Oman had grown with a “3D” model of development – distant, dispersed and disconnected. Urbanization without proper planning would lead to spatial and social segregation along with an increase in congestion, pollution and commute times.

Transit-Oriented Development is a model for planning sustainable urban communities with compact neighborhoods, high population densities, diverse land uses and abundant public spaces. The goal is to stimulate mobility, sustainability, and economic development.

Compact Neighborhoods – Generate more accessible job opportunities

Mixed land uses and diverse activities – encourage pedestrian traffic which stimulates traffic and the local economy

Transit-Oriented Development is a 3C model for development – compact, connected and coordinated. It has a direct impact on urban mobility and the economy by expanding access to different areas of the city/region thereby stimulating economic activity. By planning transit smartly to manage growth, Transit Oriented Development is an excellent vehicle for economic development.

The master plan of the Duqm Project follows the guidelines of transit-oriented development. The seaport is used to seed a vast special economic zone, which in turn is being used as an economic driver for the new metropolis. Theoretically, the idea is that the various projects are expected to act in symbiosis. The traffic at the port will drive the demand for the industries in the special economic zone; the industries will create a need for housing for employees and investors. This new populations will generate a demand for shops, healthcare, schools, and entertainment. The Duqm project will also offer a more liberalized economic environment for private industry, creation of new types of jobs, attracting foreign investment and drawing indigenous Omani nationals and ex-pats away from Muscat.

In April 2019, the Oman Company for the development of the SEZ at Duqm, Tatweer signed a MoU with Oman Telecommunications Company (Omantel) to provide technical solutions to make Duqm a smart city. The Oman government has plans to develop Duqm as a customized smart city in phases. Smart city technologies will be developed in areas such as public utility services, tourism, security and safety, smart port solutions, campus solutions, traffic lights, road lighting, intelligent building management, and waste management.

The current population of Duqm is between 16,000 to 17,000 with a majority being expatriates. This total number will rise further as several mega projects may require massive workforce mobilization. The biggest project, the Duqm Refinery, will be completed by 2022 with the potential to generate 25,000 jobs.

New cities are being constructed globally and around 200 such cities are currently under construction. Remote deserts all over East Asia, the Middle East and parts of Africa are being urbanized. There is Nurkent in Kazakhstan, Aylat in Azerbaijan, New Kabul City in Afghanistan, New Baghdad in Iraq, Rawabi in Palestine, King Abdullah Economic City in , New Cairo in Egypt, 9 new cities in Morocco are being constructed and Kuwait has 12. Though these cities may differ in scale and complexity, they are designed to meet similar goals of reshaping their economies and re-branding their countries as technologically advanced and economically sustainable.

(B) Economic Diversification Oman is heavily dependent on oil and gas resources which generate government revenues between 68% to 85% depending on fluctuations in commodity prices. Fluctuation in oil prices is a feature of global markets. In 2016, low global oil prices drove Oman’s budget deficit to USD 13.8 billion, or approximately 20% of the GDP. This budget deficit, however, is said to have reduced to 12% of the GDP by 2017 as Oman reduced government subsidies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted in 2016 that Oman could be one of many oil- dependent Middle East countries that could run out of money before the end of the decade. This came alongside the 2014 oil price crash. While on one hand, Oman is using enhanced oil recovery techniques to boost production; its focus is working to reduce its dependence on oil through economic diversification.

The 9th five-year plan (2016-2020) adopted a paradigm shift in approach based on the diversification of revenue sources to reduce the dependence of public revenue on one source, oil. Five promising sectors were selected to contribute as drivers of national economic growth: Manufacturing, Transport, and Logistics Services, Tourism, Fisheries, and Mining. The development of these sectors would take place through an optimal exploitation of natural resources, utilization of the geographical location of the Sultanate of Oman and the existing infrastructure.

TANFEEDH (Arabic; Meaning – Implementation)

The National Program for Enhancing Economic Diversification (TANFEEDH) is the Sultanate of Oman’s national initiative for sustainable economic growth amidst the global downturn, which was initiated within the framework of the 9th five-year plan (2016-2020) to increase the percentage contribution of the selected five promising sectors to the Sultanates’ GDP. Its chief aims are to:

- Identify the responsibilities, resources and time frames needed for implementation of initiatives that drive economic diversification. - Set clear standards and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for the respective initiatives - Provide periodic progress reports on the implementation of the initiatives to keep the public routinely informed of the program’s progress.

Within the TANFEEDH framework, the logistics sector has been considered to be a key to inward investment and a critical enabler for various businesses that operate across the Sultanate, with the country’s seaports constituting its backbone. Three ports were chosen for the development of transport and logistics infrastructure: Duqm, Salalah, and Sohar.

Duqm Port is the flagship of Oman’s port expansion and is considered the “prime mover” of the Duqm SEZ. The application of a Malaysian management model in the form of TANFEEDH and the following of Singaporean example as a trans-shipment and logistical hub and the commitment of Chinese investment capital and commercial engagement have been harnessed towards achieving the larger goal of transitioning to a post-oil economy.

ASYAD

With a focus on ensuring high economic growth, Oman has combined all ports, infrastructure, and free trade zones into one State Owned Enterprise with an international board. This company ASYAD has been tasked with providing the region with optimized and competitive logistics. Through domestic and international investments in the area of logistics, ASYAD is set to replace Oman’s current natural resources income with ports, trade, advanced and high tech manufacturing and logistics services income. In April 2019, ASYAD became a member of the World Free Zones Organization (World FZO) which is one of the largest and fastest-growing free zone organizations in the world.

In the Majlis ASYAD (the group-wide employee meeting) in June 2019, Abdulrahman Al Hatmi, the CEO of ASYAD Group outlined the key achievements for the first half of the year 2019 which included an EBITDA growth of 14% and a forecasted 23% overall growth for the year 2019.

A few noteworthy highlights of Majlis ASYAD June 2019 were:

- The Sohar Port, Salalah Port, and the Port of Duqm – all subsidiaries of the ASYAD Group – were forecasted to see 27% growth in bulk volumes and 14% growth in container volumes in 2019 - FDI in Sohar and Salalah Free Zones, members of ASYAD Group, was projected to top USD 500 million in 2019, a figure well above the 2018 FDI inflows - Oman Drydock Company (ODC), which operates the world-class ship repair and maintenance yard in Duqm, had achieved an organizational first of servicing 19 ships in one day - Khazaen Economic City had opened up 52 million sq. meters of its hub in Barka to the first International Tenants - Mwasalat, the operator of Oman’s bus transportation system, had handled a record of 43,000 passengers on a single day. According to the CEO, Al Hatmi, passenger numbers were projected to rise by 50% year-on-year. - National Ferries Company (NFC), which operates Oman’s high-speed catamaran based coastal transportation service, had achieved cost reductions of RO 500,000 (RO=Omani Rials) annually over the previous 5 years and boosted Omanisation to 81% across the company. - The CEO also announced Oman Shipping Company’s (OSC) plans to carry 1 million TEUs of containers across its network by 2023.

The World Bank’s Doing Business 2020 report ranks the Sultanate of Oman at 68, ten positions up from that of 2019. The Sultanate of Oman also ranks the first in the region in terms of trading across borders, offering the fastest clearance time in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC).

INCREASED COMPETITION FOR THE CONTROL OF MAJOR TRADE ROUTES:

In the last few years, the competition has been building in the Arabian Sea for the control of strategic ports adjacent to major trade routes.

The reasons for increased competition:

a) Power struggles have developed in the context of China’s efforts to consolidate its hold over key ports in the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Red Sea as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Chinese penetration of this arena has alerted India to counter its direct threat of a growing Chinese presence in the Arabian Sea and has given the United States a sharper understanding of its need to increase its strategic focus in the region. b) The heightened effort by Arab Gulf states to increase their strategic-military stability and secure their energy export and food import channels, while reducing their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Port development in this region, therefore, is integral to the competing geo-economic plans, entailed in China’s BRI and India’s Look West strategy, to develop new trade routes to markets in West Asia and Africa.

On the strategic front the US, in collaboration with India and the United Kingdom, is trying to obstruct China’s march forward.

The next topic will study in detail the relationships that the three major stakeholders in the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea and the Duqm Port in particular: China, the United States of America and India share with the Sultanate of Oman and the respective strategic involvement of each stakeholder in the Duqm Port.

(A) THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

Insight: Sino-Oman Relations

Contemporary Sino-Oman relations emerged out of an environment of distrust and hostility during a period of domestic unrest in the form of an armed uprising against the Sultanate in Dhofar, the Southern of Oman in the 1960s.

The :

The Dhofar Rebellion was started in 1963 as a tribal revolt on a relatively small scale by the Dhofar Liberation Front (DLF) against the Sultan of Oman, Said bin Taimur. The Sultan’s rule was regressive to the extent that modern medicine, spectacles, and the radio was banned. This backwardness was pronounced in the Southern Province of Dhofar as it was culturally and ethnically distinct from the rest of Oman.

The DLF did not have much of an impact on the Sultan’s Armed Forces. The top leadership of the two thousand strong force, including the Commander Sultan’s Armed Forces (CSAF) comprised of officers seconded and contracted by the British. Oman’s importance lay in its energy reserves and its geostrategic location controlling the southern littorals of the Strait of Hormuz. As the British had established relations with the Sultanate in 1646, they were keen on securing their strategic interests by maintaining the rule of the Sultan.

The Communist involvement:

The nature of the conflict was changed by the involvement of Yemen. The new Arab- Communist government of the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) stepped in and supported the Dhofar rebels by providing them with arms, finance, manpower, and an overseas base. The PDRY also arranged for support for the rebels from other communist governments. It was at this juncture that China got involved along with North Korea, the Soviet Union, and Cuba.

China provided moral, financial and military assistance to the Omani rebels. The Chinese also provided training and indoctrination for the DLF guerilla leaders in China while Chinese advisors accompanied the DLF on military operations.

Despite the inauspicious start to the formal relationship between the two countries, Oman eventually recognized the People’s Republic of China in 1978.

Ancient trade ties and the historical “Spice Road”:

The recent Chinese and Omani political discourse has focused on ancient historical ties between the two countries. Sino-Oman diplomacy is full of references to the earliest contacts between China and Oman that developed during the era of the ancient Maritime Silk Road trade route that linked Asia to Africa and Europe, suggesting a natural continuity in Sino- Omani relations.

Under the leadership of the Tang Dynasty in China, the “The Spices Road” began to materialize and seaborne trade between China and Arab countries saw a considerable increase. To develop overseas-trade the Tang Dynasty established superintendence of Merchant Shipping in Guangzhou. This site Ancient Map of Maritime Silk Roads, ©Quanzhou Municipality Source: UNESCO became a key location for Arab Merchants especially Omanis, to settle and do business. Islam entered China as early as the 7th century. It thrived in Guangzhou (known in the Arab World as Zaitoona) and other parts of South China in those times. Caliph Uthman Ibn Affan, the third Caliph after the death of Prophet Mohammed, sent a delegation to China in 651 AD. Merchants from the Arabian Peninsula used to stay in China for long periods and even marry Chinese women whom they used to convert to Islam. This can be illustrated or explained by the number of mosques built in South China of which the Grand Mosque in Zaitoona (Guangzhou) is a good example.

Sohar, the historic port town was the center of Oman’s overseas trade and an entrepot for ships plying between the East and the West. Dr.Monik Kevran, a famous French archaeologist who had done a lot of digging in Sohar had concluded that some of the ceramic wares found in Sohar were imported into the Arabian Peninsula for the first time from China and had arrived in Omani ships in the 4th Century AD.

The Contemporary Sino-Oman Relationship:

The Sino-Oman strategic friendship intensified in the early 1980s. Besides being of geostrategic importance for China, Oman was also important because of its abundant oil resources. The Chinese state’s need to secure long-term energy resources restructured its foreign policy towards the Gulf.

In 1983, Oman became the first Arab nation to export oil to China. Since then China-Oman relations have revolved around energy cooperation and oil trade. According to a report by the US Department for Energy, China is Oman’s largest export market for petroleum, receiving 70% of Oman’s crude oil exports in 2017. This number had risen to 87.23% by December 2018, according to a monthly report by Oman’s Ministry of Oil and Gas.

China-Oman Military Relations:

At the end of 2008, warships of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) were deployed to the Gulf of Aden as part of a multilateral campaign to suppress piracy in the northwestern corner of the Indian Ocean. It was at this time that the Omani port of Salalah became the PLAN expeditionary force’s primary logistical facility.

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

Post Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “New Silk Road” announcement in Kazakhstan at a conference in 2013, Chinese policymakers set sights on Oman as a key partner in materializing the BRI. The location of Oman is favorable to China as it extends the reach of the BRI due to its connectivity to markets in East Africa and the GCC. The climate of stability and peaceful sectarian coexistence in the Sultanate of Oman also makes it an indispensable and reliable player in the expansion of China’s maritime presence in the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean.

Oman has embraced this initiative and has expressed the eagerness to leverage China’s growing regional footprint as a means to project its reach into territories that once fell under its sphere of influence. Oman’s influence as a maritime and imperial power has extended beyond the Arabian Peninsula and the to East Africa and Gwadar (located in Baluchistan). These areas would all be connected now by the Maritime Silk Road.

The main development in Oman as a result of increased Chinese interest and BRI integration has been the China-Oman Industrial Port in Duqm which has been playing a critical role in boosting Chinese-Omani cooperation.

China’s involvement in the Port

Since joining the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2018, Oman has acquired additional importance as it is China’s first base station in the Gulf. Duqm is strategically located as it is close to South Asian countries like India and Pakistan and it is easily accessible from East Africa.

China’s top priority has always been that of securing dependable and secure energy resources. The Middle East which holds 48% of oil reserves and 40% of gas reserves globally has always been a region of great strategic importance to Beijing.

Under a deal signed in May 2016 between China and Oman, Oman Wanfang, a subsidiary of Wanfang China, is developing a 12.72 sq. km. China-Oman Industrial Park in the Duqm SEZ. The industrial park is the landmark project for the Belt and Road cooperation between China and Oman. Oman Wanfang has a total of 35 projects in the industrial park and signed 10 of these projects for the first phase in April 2017. Oman Wanfang’s total investment in Duqm sums up to USD 10.7 billion.

Oman Wanfang LLC

Oman Wanfang is a consortium of six Chinese Firms, many of which are from the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in North Central China. The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is an area with a large Muslim population that is very active in promoting business ties with Arab nations. The operations of Oman Wanfang show how the Belt and Road scheme supports Chinese investments abroad. The consortium claims that its member firms are private and that no direct financial aid has been announced from Beijing, but it does enjoy political support. In April 2017, Deputy Governor of Ningxia, Wang Heshan visited Duqm to lay the foundation stone for the Chinese Industrial area and declared that Beijing’s National Development and Reform Commission backed the project. It is this seal of approval that aids Oman Wanfang in negotiations with the Omani Government and may also continue to help Chinese investors in Duqm obtain loans from Chinese banks, many of which are government-controlled.

Some of the Projects in the Sino-Oman Industrial Park Duqm:

PROJECTS COMPANIES INVESTMENT METHANOL PLANT MING YUAN HOLDINGS GROUP CO. LTD. USD 10 MILLION HEBEI ELECTRIC POWER DESIGN AND POWER PLANT (300MW) RESEARCH + NINGXIA ELECTRIC POWER USD 406 MILLION DESIGN INSTITUTE NINGXIA RESIDENCE CONSTRUCTION FIVE-STAR HOTEL USD 200 MILLION DEVELOPMENT (GROUP) CO.LTD. NINGXIA ZHONGKE JIAYE NEW ENERGY SOLAR EQUIPMENT AND TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT USD 94 MILLION COMPANY HIGH-MOBILITY SUV WUHAN XIAO LONG AUTO-TECH CO. USD 84 MILLION PROJECT LTD. NINGXIA WATER INVESTMENT GROUP DESALINATION PLANT USD 81 MILLION CO. BUILDING MATERIAL NINGXIA NINGQIAO COMMERCIAL MANUFACTURING AND USD 46 MILLION INVESTMENT AND OPERATION LTD. TRADING FACILITY Source: Times of Oman / Reuters

(B) UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Insight: US-Oman Relations

Friendship between the United States of America and the Sultanate of Oman dates back to over 200 years when the American ship, the “Boston Rambler”, sailed to the Muscat port in 1790.

Formal Relationship:

The relationship between the US and Oman was formalized on September 21st,1833 when both the countries signed the “Treaty of Amity and Commerce”. The bilateral treaty was signed at Muscat by Special Agent Edmund Roberts and His Highness Sayyed Said bin Sultan of Muscat. This was the first diplomatic and commercial relationship established between the United States and an Arab Gulf state. The treaty opened new doors for the American republic allowing it to attain “most favored nation” status with the Sultan of Muscat and Zanzibar and vice versa. Before the discovery of oil in the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf, Arabia had little to sell to the Americans despite which the Sultan was eager and willing to sign trade treaties with them.

Even before the arrival of the Portuguese in the 16th century, Muscat was already a major trading center. By the time US presence was introduced in the Gulf region by Edmund Roberts, Sultan Sayyed Said bin Sultan ruled an empire spanning from Muscat in the Persian Gulf to Zanzibar in East Africa. It was after the treaty of 1833 that the Americans found ready markets in the Sultan’s empire for their cotton, furniture, and occasional rum products. The Sultan, in turn, provided ivory, dates, pearls and Far Eastern Spices.

With the growth of commercial interests in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, there was a growth in the exposure of the American people to the cultural and racial differences between themselves and the Arabs of the region. While many saw the Islamic world as barbaric, the American merchants in the region saw the Arabs as shrewd businessmen whose societies were civil and well ordered.

Americans living and working in port cities like Salem, Boston, and New York were first-hand witnesses to the diversity of ships and goods that entered their cities almost daily. At first, US trade with East Africa was limited to merchant companies in Salem, Massachusetts. In April 1840, the Omani ship “Sultanah” docked at New York Harbor. The Sultan’s envoy Ahmad bin Na’aman sailed to New York aboard the “Sultanah” and became the first Arab Diplomat accredited to the US. The “Sultanah” was the first Arab ship to set sail to the United States.US trade with Muscat expanded from Massachusetts companies to those in New York. In 1880, the US established its first consulate in Muscat to strengthen political and economic ties with Oman.

Twentieth Century Ties:

The United States and Oman expanded their trade and diplomatic relations by signing the “Treaty of Amity, Economic Relations and Consular Rights” on the 20th of December 1958, in Salalah. This treaty replaced the treaty of 1833.

The US consulate which had been established in Muscat in 1880, had carried on its operations till 1915, after which US interests in Oman had been handled by US diplomats residing in other countries. In 1972, the US ambassador in Kuwait was accredited also as the first US ambassador to Oman, and the US embassy headed by a resident charge d’affaires was opened in the capital city of Muscat. The first resident US ambassador took up his post in 1974. The Sultanate opened its embassy in Washington D.C. in 1973.

US-Oman relations deepened in 1980 with the signing of two agreements.

1. A Military Cooperation Agreement: Oman and the US first, signed a military cooperation agreement in 1980. This agreement provided access to Omani military facilities under agreed-upon conditions. Oman became a key player in the US’s new Middle East military strategy after the collapse of the US- relationship. The 1980 agreement made Oman the only state in the Arabian Peninsula to permit an effective American combat presence on its territory during peacetime. The agreement involved building and improving military facilities for Oman as well as for the US at four sites in Oman: Khasab, Seeb, Thamarit and . The agreement maintained that these facilities would be owned and used by the Sultanate of Oman, but would be available with the Sultan’s approval for use during emergencies by US troops.

2. An agreement of Economic assistance to Oman: The second agreement established a Joint Commission for Economic and Technical Cooperation located in Muscat, to provide US economic assistance to Oman. The Joint Commission continued in existence till the mid-1990s.

In 1973 a Peace Corps program was initiated to assist Oman mainly in the fields of health and education and phased out in 1983. A team from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) worked with the Civil Aviation Department of Oman on a reimbursable basis but was phased out in 1992.

Bilateral Economic Relations

In March 2005, the US and Oman commenced negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA) which were successfully concluded in October 2005. The FTA was signed on 19th January 2006 and came into force on 1st January 2009.

US exports to Oman include machinery, vehicles, aircraft, agricultural products, and medical instruments. US imports from Oman include crude oil, textiles, jewelry, plastics, fertilizers, iron and steel products.

Today US firms in Oman face a small and competitive market dominated by re-exports from the United Arab Emirates and low-cost Chinese goods.

US involvement in the Duqm Port:

On 24th March 2019, the United States and Oman signed a “Strategic Framework Agreement” that expands the US-Oman facilities access agreements by allowing the US to use the ports of Duqm and Salalah. The Duqm Port is large enough to handle US aircraft carriers. American access to the deep-water Duqm Port allows the American Fifth Fleet operational flexibility and secure docking as part of the preparedness of American vessels vis-à-vis Iran.

(C) INDIA

India-Oman Relationship

Ancient Ties – Indus Valley Civilization:

The Indo-Oman relationship has its roots trade. Oman was a hub for trade and commerce before the first century AD. The culture of the Sultanate of Oman as we know it today has been shaped by its historical position of being a bastion of maritime trade as well as land- based trade.

Archaeologists from Sultan Qaboos University established links between Ancient Oman and the Indus Valley Civilization of India. Jars had been recovered from one of the settlements in Dahwa located 24 km west of the Wilayat of Saham on the edge of the Hajar mountain range in Oman. These jars were manufactured either in Harappa or Mohenjo Daro, prominent Indus Valley cities, now in modern-day Sindh, where archaeologists discovered the world's largest city dating back to the early Bronze Age (2500-2000 BC).

The archaeologists suggested that the jars were used to transport products in small boats from the Indus Valley, across the Indus River to the shores of the Arabian Sea. These were then transported by larger boats to a port near the Wilayat of Saham and then carried manually for 24kms inwards through the edges of the Hajar mountains to Dhawa.

Archaeologists also uncovered an ancient tomb dating back 2300 years in Oman containing weapons that date back to the Bronze Age Indus Valley Civilization.

Classical Age Trade Relations:

Archaeological excavations in Oman have unearthed evidence dated back to circa third century BCE to show that Indo-Oman trade existed even during the Classical age.

British India:

The British government in India, established New Delhi’s political and security role in Oman through the appointment of a political agent in Muscat to manage British India relations and to protect ships in the Arabian Sea. As a protector of the Gulf Sheikhdoms, the British Raj assumed responsibility for the foreign affairs and defense of Oman in the 19th century.

Gwadar: India’s missed opportunity?

In the context of India-Oman relations, it is important to understand the significance of Gwadar.

Gwadar, a port located on the Makran Coast of Balochistan, first came into Omani possession in 1784 when its rule Nasir Khan of Kalat, conferred the area on Sultan bin Ahmad of Oman. For most of its existence, it remained a small community with its economy based on fishing. From 1863 up till independence in 1947, Gwadar was administered by a British assistant political agent on behalf of the Sultan of Oman. It must also be noted that in 1863, the Khan of Kalat attempted to reincorporate Gwadar within his own Khanate (or territory) and to end the anomaly of this enclave of Omani territory on the Balochistan coast. The British, however, refused to support his claim.

During the partition of India, the Indian leadership refrained from getting involved in the conflict between Pakistan and the Baloch state despite various attempts by the Khan and Baloch political leadership to persuade the Congress leadership to recognize the independent Baloch state.

After independence, Gwadar was administered by an Indian administrator on behalf of the Sultan of Oman as a result of the excellent relations between the two countries. It was reported that the Sultan of Oman offered Gwadar to India, which India declined. Oman is then reported to have sold Gwadar to Pakistan for USD 3 million on 8th September 1958. Since December 1958, it has been an integral part of the Balochistan province of Pakistan.

Economic Relations:

Investment flows, both ways between India and Oman have witnessed significant development in the last few years. According to Oman’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry, there are over 3200 Indian enterprises and establishments in Oman. Oman-India Joint Investment Fund (OIJIF), a 50-50 joint venture between State Bank of India (SBI) and State General Reserve Fund (SGRF) of Oman, was set up in July 2010 as a special purpose vehicle (SPV) to invest in India. OIJIF commenced its operations in 2011 with an initial seed capital of USD 100 million which was fully invested across seven Indian companies across diversified sectors. OIJIF has raised another USD 200 million for its Tranche-II and is being invested in India. Indian firms have invested heavily in Oman in various sectors like iron and steel, cement, fertilizers, textile, cables, chemicals, automotive, etc.

Bilateral trade between the two countries has been on the rise again after witnessing a drop for three consecutive years. In the year 2014-2015 bilateral trade dropped to USD 4,131.69 million from USD 5,763.45 million in the year 2013-2014. It dropped further to USD 3,863.86 million in the year 2015-2016. This decrease was largely the result of falling oil prices. A significant growth of approximately 67% was recorded in when bilateral trade rose from USD 4,006.59 million in 2016-2017 to USD 6,703.76 million in 2017-2018.

Major items that India exports to Oman: mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances, articles of iron or steel, electrical machinery and equipment, textiles and garments, chemicals, tea, coffee, spices, cereals, meat products, and seafood. Main items that India imports from Oman: fertilizers, mineral fuels, mineral oils, and products of their distillation, bituminous substances, mineral waxes, aluminum and articles thereof, organic chemicals, salt, Sulphur, earths and stone, plastering materials, lime, and cement.

India-Oman Military Relations:

India’s engagement with the Gulf region is largely limited to energy and trade exchanges; however, its security ties with Oman are relatively well developed.

- In 1972, India and Oman signed a military protocol, wherein Indian Navy personnel were deployed in Oman for 3 years, which was institutionalized in the aftermath of Oman’s independence from Britain. - Former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and Sultan Qaboos of Oman had signed an MoU on military cooperation in 1985 and joint naval exercises began in January 1993. - “Naseem Al Bahr” (meaning: Sea Breeze), a biennial joint naval exercise between the Royal Navy of Oman (RNO) and the Indian Navy completed its 12th edition in January 2020. - Oman provides berthing facilities for Indian Navy warships for anti-piracy operations. - MoUs on defense cooperation has been signed in 2005 and 2006. - Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had visited Oman in 2008 and had agreed to convert the relationship between the two nations into a strategic partnership. - In 2009, for the first time, the Royal Air Force of Oman (ROFA) and the Indian Air force (IAF) conducted joint military exercises. ROFA airbases also serve as maintenance and refueling points for the IAF. - Omani cadets and officers have for long been trained in the National Defense Academy and other military training schools in India. - Oman is the only Gulf country with which all three services of the Indian Military – The Indian Army, Air force, and Navy conduct joint-exercises. (Joint Navy Exercise: Naseem Al Bahr, Joint Army Exercise: Al Najah and Joint Airforce Exercise: Eastern Bridge)

Relations under Prime Minister Modi:

Strategic engagements with the Gulf region have witnessed a marked increase under the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led government in New Delhi post-2014. The Prime Minister of India Shri Narendra Modi has taken a keen a keen interest in foreign policy and has invested significant diplomatic effort in the Middle East. India has managed to maintain friendly relations with even those Middle East countries that are at odds with each other like Israel and Iran. Since Prime Minister Modi’s first visit to the Gulf in 2015, there has been a significant increase in the number of high-profile visits to and from the region.

- In May 2016, former Defense Minister of India Manohar Parrikar visited Muscat to discuss security and defense ties and signed four MoUs related to defense cooperation. - In February 2018, during Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi’s visit to Oman, both countries signed an annex to the existing MoU on military cooperation thereby granting Indian warships access to Duqm Port.

India’s involvement in the Duqm Port:

In February 2018 India secured access to the Duqm Port in Oman for military use and logistical support. Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and the former Sultan of Oman Sayyid Qaboos bin Said Al Said signed an annexure to the Memorandum of Understanding on Military Cooperation between the two countries. The services of Duqm Port and dry dock, following this pact, were made available for the maintenance of Indian military vessels.

In the Port of Duqm SEZ, Sebacic Oman, an Indo-Oman joint venture is undertaking a USD 1.2 billion project to set-up the largest sebacic acid plant in the Middle East.

An agreement to develop Little India, an integrated tourism complex project worth USD 748 million in Duqm has been signed by the two countries.

Chinese MaritimeInfluence:

In the past decade China, which is the world’s largest importer of oil, has become a discrete yet extremely influential player in the Middle East, heavily investing in ports in the region through the Belt and Road Initiative.

- In 2017, China opened its first overseas military base in Djibouti, including a dock that is currently undergoing expansion to facilitate larger vessels. The Chinese naval base is located adjacent to the opening of the Bal Al Mandeb Strait and across from the military bases of the United States, France, and Japan. This has given China access to one of the bottlenecks of global trade. - Since 2013, China has been investing heavily in the deep-water port in Gwadar (Balochistan Province), Pakistan. The Gwadar Port is located a few hundreds of kilometers from the opening of the Persian Gulf. The port was leased to China from Pakistan. In exchange for the expansion work, China was granted the right to operate the port until 2059. The Gwadar project includes the development of a surrounding network of highways and transit routes, an airport, a power station, and an economic zone, all supported by Chinese investment. China has always maintained that its interests in Gwadar are driven by its need for alternate shipping routes. More recently, China has linked its interest in Gwadar with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It is widely assumed that China intends to use the port to expand its military presence in the region. It has been reported that China is constructing its second overseas military base in Pakistan. The base is to be built at Jiwani, a port close to the Iranian border, on the Gulf of Oman. It is also reported that the Jiwani base is to be a joint naval and air facility for Chinese forces. Jiwani is also part of the Balochistan Province, located a short distance up the coast from the Gwadar Port and closer to the Strait of Hormuz. - By investing in Duqm, China has established for itself another port in the Gulf of Oman / Arabian Sea and also adjacent to one of the busiest trade routes in the world, the Nine Degree Channel.

Defining India’s Strategy in Duqm:

The international competition over the use of the Duqm Port seems to be an effective preventive measure adopted by the United States and India against rising Chinese dominance and penetration of the maritime space in the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman.

From the Indian perspective, access to the Duqm port would allow the Indian leadership to challenge Chinese domination and to an extent Pakistani presence in the Arabian Sea.

Analysis of the impact of India’s presence in Duqm:

India’s decision to secure access to the Duqm Port in Oman for military use and logistical support could prove to be a very effective strategic move shortly, provided it can ensure booming economic growth for itself.

Factors that Work in India’s Favour:

a) The Location: - Duqm is not based in a landlocked country - The port faces an open sea - It provides easy access to crucial waterways of the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean - It is located close to China’s port base at Gwadar

b) Oman’s Economic Power: - Oman is not a major economic or military power, tilting the power balance in India’s favor.

c) Relations with Oman: - As we have seen in the sections above, India has had probably the longest relations with Oman and very strong political ties.

Factors that work against India:

a) The least powerful stakeholder of the three understudy

***Power **GDP (PPP) Index ***Global (2018) (USD ' **GDP per capita (PwrIndx) Military Strength COUNTRY millions) PPP (2018) (USD) (2020) Ranking (2020) China $2,53,98,678.00 $18,236.60 0.0691 3 USA $2,05,44,343.46 $62,794.60 0.0606 1 India $1,05,00,208.40 $7,762.90 0.0953 4 OMAN $2,02,161.84 $41,859.90 1.2514 75 Sources: ** : World Bank Data *** : 2020 Military Strength Ranking, Global Firepower

Economic Power:

Economic power is the ability of countries (in this case), to improve their standards of living. It increases their freedom to make decisions to benefit themselves alone and reduces the ability of outside forces to challenge this freedom.

Purchasing Power is a significant component of this economic power. Countries can acquire economic power by improving their income, thereby adding to their wealth. This, in turn, allows them to purchase more and better-quality goods and services to meet their demands. To increase this income a country must produce a good or service which provides a real benefit. The laws of demand and supply in the market will ensure that the customer pays the highest price for that benefit. Some of the ways that a country can increase its income are: manufacturing high tech equipment, providing cheap labor to make consumer products or production of oil.

As we can see from the table above, China has the largest economic size of the three stakeholders in the Duqm Port which can be determined by its GDP(PPP) of USD 25,398,678 million. However, the United States of America is the most economically powerful not only because of its GDP of USD 20,544,343.46 million (which is the second-highest in the world after China) but also because its standard of living, determined by its GDP per Capita (PPP) of USD 62,794.60, is much higher than China’s GDP per Capita (PPP) of USD 18,236.60.

If calculated using the population of the US, we can observe that the economic power of the US which is determined by its GDP per Capita (PPP) outweighs its GDP (PPP). One of the main reasons for this is that the US dollar is in effect a world currency. The dollar is used for most international transactions including all oil contracts. A country can’t be termed as an economic power if it is unable to create a high standard of living for its citizens. India’s GDP (PPP), though high, is lower than that of the other two stakeholders in Duqm. It is the least powerful economy of the three with the lowest standard of living captured by its low GDP per Capita (PPP) of USD 7,762.90.

Oman, as we can see, has a high GDP per capita (PPP) but is not considered an economic power as it is an oil-exporting country. The GDP per capita (PPP) of Oil dependent economies are generally high and fluctuate drastically with changes in oil prices.

Military Power:

Global Firepower utilizes 50 individual factors to determine a country’s overall Power Index (PwrIndx) score with the inclusion of the following individual categories: Manpower, Airpower, Land forces, Naval Forces, Natural Resources, Logistics, Financials, and Geography. The countries are then ranked by potential military strength.

In the Global Firepower 2020 rankings, as we can see in the table: The United States remains the undisputed no.1 ranked military power in the world with a Power Index Rating of 0.0606 (0.0000 is considered “perfect”). China is not far behind with a Power Index Rating of 0.0691 and ranked at no.3. India with a Power Index Rating of 0.0953 is ranked at no.4 globally. India is, therefore, in terms of the military the least powerful of the three major stakeholders in Duqm.

Reasons for India’s lower Military Power:

India scores very high in the manpower category, and coastal patrolling under naval forces category however, it gets pulled down by:

- Its defense budget, purchasing power, port, and terminal logistics, roadway coverage, waterway coverage, and natural resources. - As per the Matrix published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, India is a Regional Military Power. - China is an Expeditionary Military Power and the US is the only Global Military Power.

Military Power Matrix Source: IISS b) Economic Slowdown

According to the UN’s 2019, World Population Prospects report released in June 2019, India’s population will overshoot China in 2027. To sustain this huge population, the Indian economy will have to grow at 8% - 10%. India’s GDP growth dropped to 4.5% in the July-September quarter of 2019-20, the lowest in 26 quarters. With Government packages focusing on the supply side and continuing to ignore the problem of demand contraction, double-digit economic growth at this stage seems difficult. This will also have a negative impact on the already low defense budget allocation.

Concluding Analysis:

The challenge that being the least powerful of the three stakeholders, coupled with an economy in turmoil poses to India’s prospects in Duqm is that of a comparatively low power differential. One of the factors in India’s favor is its power differential with Oman as India is a bigger economic and military power. China and the US too have the same advantage in their respective relationships with Oman. China and the US are also, as assessed above, greater economic and military powers. Both, the US and China have the advantage of also being expeditionary powers while India has more regional focus. It must also be factored in that India is surrounded by hostile neighbors, which may limit its expeditionary abilities.

- In the event of hostilities in the region, India’s ability to access Duqm port and the extraterritorial waters freely maybe restricted completely by China or limited by the US on the might of their power exercised in the region. Both the US and China are currently in a position to dictate terms in the region and China’s military presence in the region is largely restricted by US pressure on Oman. - If India has to protect its overseas assets, it needs to be a powerful economy, which it currently is not.

At this stage, it can, therefore, be assessed that India’s current strategy in Duqm is limited to positioning itself and establishing a presence to counter a growing China. Currently, therefore, it can be inferred that India is acting as a smaller strategic partner in the United States dominated partnership to counter China in the region.

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