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Small-Area Population Forecasts for New Brunswick with 2016 Census Data: Cohort- Component Model Report

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Small-Area Population Forecasts for New Brunswick with 2016 Census Data: Cohort- Component Model Report Small-Area Population Forecasts for New Brunswick with 2016 Census Data: Cohort- Component Model Report 1 Project Title POPULATION DYNAMICS FOR SMALL AREAS AND RURAL COMMUNITIES Principle Investigator Paul Peters, Department of Health Sciences, Carleton University Research Team This project was completed with the assistance of analysts at the NB-IRDT. Partners Funding for this project was provided by the Government of New Brunswick, Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour (PETL) through contract #141192. Approval Approval for this project was obtained by the NB-IRDT, via P0007: Population Dynamics for Small Areas and Rural Communities. How to cite this report Balzer, A., Peters, P. (2018). Small-Area Population Forecasts for New Brunswick with 2016 Census Data: Cohort-Component Model Report (Report No. 2018-03). Fredericton, NB: New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT). 2 Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 LIST OF MAPS ......................................................................................................................................................... 6 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................ 7 2 KEY FINDINGS ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 3 DATA AND METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................ 8 3.1 DATA ..................................................................................................................................................................... 8 3.2 FORECASTING METHODS ............................................................................................................................................ 8 3.3 SELECTED GEOGRAPHIES ............................................................................................................................................ 9 4 COHORT-COMPONENT RATE ANALYSIS............................................................................................................. 10 5 COHORT-COMPONENT MODEL FORECASTS ...................................................................................................... 13 5.1 POPULATION CHANGE, BY CENSUS DIVISION ................................................................................................................ 13 5.1.1 Baseline population change ...................................................................................................................... 13 5.1.2 Constrained population change by StatCan scenarios .............................................................................. 14 5.2 EFFECTS OF IN-MIGRATION AND OUT-MIGRATION ......................................................................................................... 17 5.3 POPULATION FORECASTS FOR ALTERNATE GEOGRAPHIES ................................................................................................ 19 6 LABOUR FORCE FORECASTS .............................................................................................................................. 23 7 SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................................ 27 8 REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................................................... 28 APPENDIX A: TABLES FOR POPULATION CHANGE BY COHORT-COMPONENT MODEL SCENARIO ......................... 29 APPENDIX B: TABLES FOR ALTERNATE GEOGRAPHIES OF CONSTRAINED POPULATION CHANGE BY STATISTICS CANADA SCENARIO ............................................................................................................................................. 37 APPENDIX C: MAPS FOR SELECTED GEOGRAPHIES OF CONSTRAINED POPULATION CHANGE BY STATISTICS CANADA SCENARIO ............................................................................................................................................. 43 3 List of tables Table 1: Selected geographies used for population forecasting (2016) ......................................... 9 Table 2: Baseline population change from 2006-2036 by Census Division, base period 2006- 2011............................................................................................................................................... 13 Table 3: Baseline population change from 2011-2036 by Census Division, base period 2011- 2016............................................................................................................................................... 14 Table 4: Constrained population change from 2006-2036, by scenario, by Census Division, base period 2006-2011. ......................................................................................................................... 15 Table 5: Constrained population change from 2011-2036, by scenario, by Census Division, base period 2011-2016. ......................................................................................................................... 15 Table 6: Population difference from baseline population forecast (2006-2036) for high/low in/out-migration scenarios, base period 2006-2011. ..................................................................... 17 Table 7: Population difference from baseline population forecast (2011-2036) for high/low in/out-migration scenarios, base period 2011-2016. ..................................................................... 18 Table 8: Population difference from baseline population forecast (2011-2036) for High Internal Migration and Low Internal Migration scenarios, base period 2011-2016. ................................. 18 Table 9: Baseline population change from 2011-2036 by PETL Employment Sub-Region, base period 2011-2016. ......................................................................................................................... 19 Table 10: Constrained population change from 2011-2036, by scenario, by PETL Employment Sub-Region, base period 2011-2016. ............................................................................................ 20 Table 11: Forecast by Census Division of Labour Force in 2016, 2026, and 2036, along with linear growth rate from 2016 to 2036 ........................................................................................... 23 Table 12: Forecast by PETL Employment Sub-Region of Labour Force in 2016, 2026, and 2036, along with linear growth rate from 2016 to 2036 ......................................................................... 24 Table 13: Population change from 2006-2036, by scenario, by Census Division, base period 2006-2011. .................................................................................................................................... 29 Table 14: Population change from 2011-2036, by scenario, by Census Division, base period 2011-2016. .................................................................................................................................... 29 Table 15: Population change from 2011-2036, by scenario, by PETL Employment Sub-Region, base period 2011-2016. ................................................................................................................. 30 Table 16: Population change from 2011-2036, by scenario, by CMA, base period 2011-2016. 31 Table 17: Population change from 2011-2036, by scenario, by Health Council Community, base period 2011-2016. ......................................................................................................................... 31 Table 18: Population change from 2011-2036, by scenario, by Health Region, base period 2011- 2016............................................................................................................................................... 32 Table 19: Population change from 2011-2036, by scenario, by Provincial Electoral District (2010), base period 2011-2016. .................................................................................................... 33 Table 20: Population change from 2011-2036, by scenario, by Provincial Electoral District (2014), base period 2011-2016. .................................................................................................... 34 Table 21: Population change from 2011-2036, by scenario, by Regional Service Commission, base period 2011-2016. ................................................................................................................. 35 Table 22: Constrained population change from 2011-2036, by scenario, by CMA, base period 2011-2016. .................................................................................................................................... 37 4 Table 23: Constrained population change from 2011-2036, by scenario, by Health Council Community, base period 2011-2016. ............................................................................................ 37 Table 24: Constrained population change from 2011-2036, by scenario, by Health Region, base period 2011-2016. ........................................................................................................................
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