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Bank of Japan Quarterly Bulletin, Should Explicitly Be Credited May 2006 Quarterly Bulletin—Volume 14, Number 2 © Bank of Japan 2006 All rights reserved. The information included in this publication may be copied or reproduced except for the following cases. When copied or reproduced, the source, Bank of Japan Quarterly Bulletin, should explicitly be credited. (1) Making a copy or reproduction of the content for commercial purposes. (2) Using the documents with notations to contact the Bank.* (3) Making a copy or reproduction of the graphics, illustrations, or other image data. * For example, those labeled “Please contact the Public Relations Department at the Bank of Japan to request permission to copy or reproduce.” In the cases of (1), (2), or (3), please contact the Public Relations Department at the Bank below in advance to request permission (inquiries regarding this publication should be directed to the same address and/or numbers). Public Relations Department Bank of Japan C.P.O. Box 203 Tokyo 100-8630, JAPAN Telephone: +81-3-3279-1111 Facsimile: +81-3-3510-1374 ISSN 0919-1380 Printed in Japan on recycled paper C O N T E N T S MKKKKKKKKKKKKKMKSSSSSSSLP Statement by Toshihiko Fukui, Governor of the Bank of Japan, concerning the Bank’s Semiannual Report on Currency and Monetary Control before the Committee on Financial Affairs, House of Councillors, on February 21, 2006.............................................................. 5 Statement by Toshihiko Fukui, Governor of the Bank of Japan, concerning the Bank’s Semiannual Report on Currency and Monetary Control before the Committee on Financial Affairs, House of Representatives, on March 10, 2006 .......................................................... 9 New Framework for the Conduct of Monetary Policy: Toward Achieving Sustainable Economic Growth with Price Stability ... 13 Speech given by Toshihiko Fukui, Governor of the Bank of Japan, to the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Tokyo on March 16, 2006 Publications of the Monetary Policy Meeting on January 19 and 20, 2006................................................................................. 23 I Minutes............................................................................................................................. 24 I The Bank’s View of Recent Economic and Financial Developments ............................ 33 Publications of the Monetary Policy Meeting on February 8 and 9, 2006.................................................................................... 35 I Minutes............................................................................................................................. 36 I The Bank’s View of Recent Economic and Financial Developments ............................ 45 Publications of the Monetary Policy Meeting on March 8 and 9, 2006 .......................................................................................... 47 I Minutes............................................................................................................................. 48 I The Bank’s View of Recent Economic and Financial Developments ............................ 63 The Bank’s Thinking on Price Stability.................................................... 65 The Bank of Japan’s Action Plans for Fiscal 2006 ............................. 91 I Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 92 I Major Issues and Action Plans......................................................................................... 92 I Management Resources and Organizational Management ........................................... 96 On-Site Examination Policy for Fiscal 2006 ......................................... 101 I Review of On-Site Examinations and Off-Site Monitoring of Financial Institutions in Fiscal 2005 ............................................................................................. 102 I On-Site Examination Policy for Fiscal 2006 ................................................................. 104 I Attachment: Key Points for On-Site Examinations in Fiscal 2006 by Risk Category ... 108 Financial Markets Report (Summary)...................................................... 113 Payment and Settlement Systems Report (Outline) ...................... 117 Japan’s Balance of Payments for 2005 (Summary)......................... 121 Recent Developments in Hedge Funds (Summary)......................... 125 Public Statements by the Bank of Japan: January–March 2006 ......................... 129 Information about the Bank’s Web Site • The Bank of Japan Web Site • The Bank of Japan E-Mail Service • Speeches and Research Papers All of the above are available at the Bank of Japan’s web site (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/index.htm). Statement by Toshihiko Fukui, Governor of the Bank of Japan, concerning the Bank’s Semiannual Report on Currency and Monetary Control before the Committee on Financial Affairs, House of Councillors, on February 21, 2006 Bank of Japan QUARTERLY BULLETIN May 2006 5 Statement by the Governor concerning the Bank’s Semiannual Report on Currency and Monetary Control basis since March 1990, mainly reflecting the rise in INTRODUCTION international commodity prices and the depreciation The Bank of Japan submitted its Semiannual Report of the yen in the second half of 2005, and are expected on Currency and Monetary Control for the first half to continue increasing. The year-on-year rate of of fiscal 2005 to the Diet in December 2005. I am change in consumer prices (excluding fresh food, on pleased to have this opportunity to present an overall a nationwide basis) had been slightly negative, but review of the Bank’s conduct of monetary policy. posted a slight increase for two consecutive months in November and December 2005. The year-on-year I. Developments in Japan’s rate of change is likely to record a relatively clear Economy increase in January 2006 and thereafter as the effects The growth of Japan’s economy slowed temporarily from the reduction in telephone charges dissipate. from the second half of 2004 to the summer of A positive trend is likely to be established thereafter, 2005. Thereafter, it emerged from this pause and has as the output gap continues improving gradually and continued to recover steadily. downward pressures from unit labor costs decrease. Exports and industrial production have continued On the financial front, the environment for to increase. Business fixed investment has continued corporate finance is becoming more accommodative to increase against the background of high corporate on the whole. The issuing environment for CP and profits. In the household sector, household income corporate bonds is favorable and the lending attitude has been rising moderately, as the number of of private banks is becoming more active. The decline employees has been increasing and wages have in credit demand in the private sector is coming picked up. With this improvement in the employment to a halt. Under these circumstances, the amount and income situation, private consumption has outstanding of CP and corporate bonds issued has been steady. been above the previous year’s level and the year-on- Looking forward, exports are expected to continue year rate of increase in the amount outstanding rising against the background of the expansion of of lending by private banks, after adjusting for overseas economies. Domestic private demand is likely the liquidation of loans and loan write-offs, has to continue increasing reflecting high corporate been accelerating since August 2005 when the profits and the moderate rise in household income, year-on-year rate of change turned positive. while structural adjustment pressure, such as the Land prices remain generally on a downtrend, excess debt of firms, has almost dissipated. Given but the pace of decline has been slowing recently that an environment in which a virtuous cycle can and in some areas such as central Tokyo they have start operating has been established with the recovery started to rise. both in domestic and external demand and in the corporate and the household sectors, the economy II. Conduct of Monetary Policy is likely to experience a relatively long period of The Bank has been providing ample liquidity based growth, albeit at a moderate pace. Nevertheless, risk on the quantitative easing policy. At the Monetary factors such as the continuing surge in crude oil Policy Meeting on February 8 and 9, 2006, the Policy prices and its possible effect on overseas economies Board decided to maintain the target range for the should continue to be monitored closely. outstanding balance of current accounts held at the On the price front, the environment influencing Bank at “around 30 to 35 trillion yen.” prices has been improving. The output gap has been The framework of the quantitative easing policy narrowing moderately, as the economy continues to is based on two key elements. The first element is the recover at a pace above its potential. The decline in Bank’s provision of ample liquidity to the money unit labor costs has been slowing with the increases market so that the outstanding balance of current Bank of Japan in wages, despite continued downward pressure from accounts at the Bank substantially exceeds the QUARTERLY the rise in productivity. Various survey results show amount of required reserves. The second is the Bank’s BULLETIN May that firms’ and households’ expectations regarding commitment to maintain this ample provision of 2006 prices are gradually being revised upward.
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