Copyright by Jeremy M. Teigen 2005
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Copyright by Jeremy M. Teigen 2005 The Dissertation Committee for Jeremy Michael Teigen certifies that this is the approved version of the following dissertation: The Role of Previous Military Service in American Electoral Politics Committee: Daron R. Shaw, Supervisor Bruce Buchanan Brian E. Roberts David L. Leal M. Kent Jennings The Role of Previous Military Service in American Electoral Politics by Jeremy Michael Teigen, B.A., M.A. Dissertation Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Texas at Austin August 2005 Dedication This dissertation is humbly dedicated to those who never got home to pick up their G.I. Bill checks. Acknowledgements I was a necessary but insufficient condition for the completion of this dissertation—I enjoyed help in many forms throughout graduate school. My committee, led by Daron Shaw, was critically helpful at the dissertation stage, but also throughout the process of my academic professionalization. I owe an immense debt of gratitude to the entire committee: Daron Shaw, Bruce Buchanan, Brian Roberts, David Leal, and Kent Jennings. There were also many others who helped along the way, by reading drafts and proffering feedback, offering methodological advice, volleying ideas, et cetera. The list is long: Phil Paolino, John Sides, Robert Luskin, Tse-Min Lin, Peter Feaver, Zoltan Barany, Keith Gaddie, Tomoharu Nishino, Greg Markus, Anna Law, Cara Wong, Wendy Hunter, Rich Holtzman, Neal Allen, Mike Unger, Don Zinman, Danny Hayes, Sherry Lowrance, and of course, Julie George. Lastly, I must mention a group of individuals from across the years who helped the project in less tangible but also supportive ways: James Henson, Richard Zeitlin, Mark Van Ells, Joseph Waldron, my wonderful parents and sister, and again, Julie George. Naturally, deficiencies within these pages reflect upon me, not these helpful individuals. v The Role of Previous Military Service in American Electoral Politics Publication No._____________ Jeremy Michael Teigen, Ph.D. The University of Texas at Austin, 2005 Supervisor: Daron R. Shaw A recurring feature of American elections is previous military service, for both candidates and the electorate. Despite a strict tradition of civilian supremacy over the military, the US exhibits a recurring magnetism toward leaders with martial pedigree. In the electorate, civilian veterans are an oft-cited voting bloc in primary and general elections with uncertain impact, often garnering direct appeals from candidates and media attention. This dissertation consists of chapters dealing with the intersection of military service and politics in its manifestations across different arenas of electoral competition: the use of previous military service by presidential and congressional campaigns, and in the electorate by measuring, analyzing, and explaining veterans’ electorate turnout, political attitudes, vote choices, and partisan preferences. Keywords: military veterans, political participation, voting, cohort analysis, turnout, public opinion, presidential campaigns, congressional campaigns, interest groups. vi Table of Contents List of Tables ......................................................................................................... ix List of Figures..........................................................................................................x Chapter 1: Introducing the Study of Veterans in American Electoral Politics.......1 Substantive Chapter Summaries .....................................................................6 Chapter 2: Tippecanoe and Hanoi Hiltons Too: Presidential Campaign use of Candidate Military Service ...........................................................................11 Presidential Candidates and Presidential Campaigns: 1789-2004................25 Characterizing Eras.......................................................................................48 Conclusion: A New Era of National Security...............................................55 Chapter 3: Congressional Elections.......................................................................62 Data and Methods: 2002 House Elections....................................................65 Veteran Style with Veteran Constituents? ....................................................78 Conclusion: House Elections and Veterans ..................................................81 Chapter 4: Candidates and Military Service in the 2004 Presidential Election....84 Veteran Affect for Candidates with Military Service.................................105 Conclusion: The 2004 Election and Veterans.............................................111 Chapter 5: Sometime Supercitizens: Veterans’ Political Participation................114 Potential Sources of Veteran Uniqueness...................................................119 Testing For Effects Of Previous Military Service ......................................121 Cohort Analysis: Conflicts and Generations...............................................131 Political Participation in 2004.....................................................................145 Conclusion: American Veterans and Cohorts.............................................148 Chapter 6: Comparing American Vets to Israeli Vets .........................................153 Data and Methods: Israeli Political Participation .......................................157 Conclusion ..................................................................................................170 vii Appendix .............................................................................................................172 References............................................................................................................173 Vita .....................................................................................................................188 viii List of Tables Table 2.1: Combinations of previous military service type and campaign uses with a sub-sample of notable presidential candidacies as examples....23 Table 2.2: Major party presidential candidates and their military service, 1789- 2004......................................................................................................50 Table 2.3: Number of Candidates in each Eras by Veteran Type, 1828-2004.52 Table 3.1: House election candidates with military experience by party, 2002. ..............................................................................................................69 Table 3.2: Mean Democratic two-party vote share by military experience of candidate and winning party, 2002. .....................................................71 Table 3.3: Democratic two-party vote share in U.S. House races, 2002 (OLS). ..............................................................................................................75 Table 3.4: Factors predicting a veteran victory and the emergence of a veteran from either primary, 2002 (logit).........................................................80 Table 4.1: Party Identity Percentages by Veteran Status, 2004....................99 Table 4.2: Two-Candidate Bush Vote Choice, 2004 (Logistic Regression).102 Table 4.3: Mean “Feeling Thermometer” Ratings, 2004............................106 Table 4.4: Factors Driving Feeling Thermometer Ratings (OLS)..............109 Table 5.1: Aggregate levels of veteran turnout in 2000 presidential primaries117 Table 5.2: Effects of Demographic Factors on Male Voting Turnout, 1972-2002. ............................................................................................................124 Table 5.3: Substantive Effects of Demographic Factors on Male Voting Turnout, 1972-2002. ..........................................................................129 Table 5.4: Effect of Previous Military Service on Male Voting Turnout in the US, Together and by Cohort, 1972-2002...........................................133 Table 5.5: Effects of Demographic Factors on Male Voting Turnout in the US, 1972-2002 (Pooled Fixed Effects Logistic Regression) ....................137 Table 5.6: Panel Survey Results: Changes in Attitudes Related to Turnout Propensity, 1965-1973. ......................................................................144 Table 5.7: Self-Reported Electoral Turnout, 2004 (Logistic Regression)..147 Table 6.1: Determinants of self-reported Israeli Turnout for Knesset, 1992, 1996, and 1999 (Maximum Likelihood Binary Logistic Regression).161 Table 6.2: Political Participation in Israel, 1992-2001 (Maximum Likelihood Negative Binomial Regression). ........................................................168 ix List of Figures Figure 4.1: Party Identity Percentages by Veteran Status, 2004.................100 Figure 4.2: Probability of Voting Bush in Trial Heat, September 23-26, 2004 (ABC/Washington Post Poll).............................................................104 Figure 4.3: Mean “Feeling Thermometer” Ratings, 2004. .........................107 Figure 5.1: Substantive effect of military service on political participation across the variance in educational attainment...............................................140 x Chapter 1: Introducing the Study of Veterans in American Electoral Politics Volumnia: To a cruel war I sent him; from whence he returned, his brows bound with oak… Virgilia: But had he died in the business, madam; how then? Volumnia:…Hear me profess sincerely: