TRANSFORMING DEFENSE Edited by Conrad C. Crane December 2001 ***** The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. ***** Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 122 Forbes Ave., Carlisle, PA 17013-5244. Copies of this report may be obtained from the Publications Office by calling commercial (717) 245-4133, FAX (717) 245-3820, or via the Internet at [email protected] ***** Most 1993, 1994, and all later Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) monographs are available on the SSI Homepage for electronic dissemination. SSI’s Homepage address is: http://carlisle-www.army. mil/usassi/welcome.htm ***** The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to update the national security community on the research of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newsletter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our research analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please let us know by e-mail at [email protected] or by calling (717) 245-3133. ***** ISBN 1-58487-079-6 ii CONTENTS Foreword ..........................v Preface ..........................vii Part I: Historical Overview of Transforming American Defense .....................1 1. Peacetime Transformation in the U.S. Army, 1865-1965 Brian McAlister Linn ............... 3 2. The American Military Tradition and Post-Cold War Operations Frank N. Schubert ................31 3. Army Transformation: A Tale of Two Doctrines David Jablonsky .................45 Part II: Transformation Plans and Barriers.......89 4. Technology and Complexity: The Modern Military’s Capacity for Change Chris C. Demchak and Patrick D. Allen .....99 5. What Do We Really Know About an Uncertain DoD Budget? Leslie K. Lewis and Roger Allen Brown ....137 Part III: External Views of Transformation ......165 6. The United Kingdom’s View of U.S. Army Transformation W. H. Moore ...................167 7. American Defense Transformation: A View From Ukraine Leonid I. Polyakov................175 About the Authors ..................185 iii FOREWORD Even before the Bush administration in Washington began its defense reviews, the topic of transforming America’s armed forces to meet the security demands of the post-Cold War era and beyond was receiving much attention. The sharp debates about the direction and impact of President George W. Bush’s and Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s plans for defense reform have magnified that trend. For that reason, the theme of the Twelfth Annual Strategy Conference conducted by the U.S. Army War College in April 2001, “Transforming Defense in an Era of Peace and Prosperity,” was especially timely. The ideas and issues presented in this collection of papers from that gathering will educate and inform anyone interested in the past and future course of American defense reform. Though conference attendees had many differing opinions about the barriers to defense transformation and how to overcome them, a broad consensus formed that some change is essential to meet future security requirements. They observed at the time that it is ironic that the peace which creates the prosperity and wealth to fund transformation and permits a window of time to achieve it, also decreases public interest and urgency to accomplish it. The terrible events of September 11, 2001, appear to have dispelled public disinterest in the nation’s military capabilities, and may provide increased impetus for the drive for defense reform. If the opportunity is squandered, or the wrong choices are made, the costs to the nation someday could be catastrophic. DOUGLAS C. LOVELACE, JR. Director Strategic Studies Institute v PREFACE From April 17-20, 2001, the U.S. Army War College sponsored a major conference to examine the many issues and questions surrounding the transformation of the U.S. Armed Forces from a Cold War paradigm into a defense establishment ready to meet the complex challenges of the future. The conference brought together at Carlisle Barracks over 230 American and foreign academic, business, government, media, and military representatives. A series of enlightening—and sometimes troubling— discussions highlighted the many opportunities and challenges involved in executing long-term and extensive defense reform. The conference focused on five general themes: an historical overview of defense transformation, change and organizational dynamics, global perspectives on American defense reform, financing the process, and service plans to execute it. This collection regroups papers and presentations from the conference into three categories: Historical Overviews of Transforming Defense, Transformation Plans and Barriers, and External Views of Transformation. Each section contains an introduction describing the essays that follow, as well as summarizing other relevant conference presentations and discussions bearing on the topic. If presenters did not produce a formal article for publication, their key arguments are still described in the introduction. The conference concluded while the outlines of the Bush administration’s national security strategy and defense budget were still very vague. Details that emerged shortly thereafter, including the passage of a large tax cut, highlighted some of the specific directions—and difficulties—near-term defense reform would feature. The terrorist attacks on New York and Washington have altered some of those parameters, but have also highlighted anew the evolving nature of future threats and the need for vii expanded military capabilities. The issues and arguments covered in this collection look backward into the past and forward into the future to illuminate views of the process and problems of American defense transformation for affected decisionmakers. The road ahead is still unclear, but it must be traveled if the United States is to retain its dominant military power. This collection will provide some guideposts and warnings that will be useful along the way. CONRAD C. CRANE Editor viii PART I: HISTORICAL OVERVIEW OF TRANSFORMING AMERICAN DEFENSE American history is replete with examples of eras and circumstances requiring military change, and they were often cited by conference panelists and commentators to illustrate points of discussion. The three essays in this section are a product of the first session of the conference, intended to provide some broad perspectives on this historical basis for defense transformation. Dr. Brian Linn from Texas A&M University opens with an analysis of a century of peacetime change for the Army. Focusing on contemporary and modern issues and problems, he concludes that real “peacetime transformation occurs when there is substantial public and political support and a clear and present danger to the continental United States.” He also notes that there is danger in imposing military change without thinking through all the consequences. Dr. Frank Schubert, Chief of Joint Operational History in the Joint History Office of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, compares the employment of American military forces since the end of the Cold War with the traditional roles they have served for the nation. He finds that although there are some differences, the Armed Forces’ disparate missions in the 1990s fit the historical pattern of the nation’s military experience. Dr. David Jablonsky of the Army War College ends this section with a further examination of the 1990s. He explains how the juxtaposition of the so-called “Powell and Clinton Doctrines” have created a demanding list of requirements for the Army that has energized the drive for service transformation, while producing an “essentially conservative approach to a revolutionary process.” 1 As a follow-up to the presentation of these papers, Dr. Richard Betts from Columbia University gave a provocative address entitled “Looking Forward by Looking Backward.” He used the period between the World Wars to illustrate the limited utility of historical comparisons, and highlighted the uncertainties that the future holds. Though wary of too much peacekeeping, he predicted that similar missions will predominate. Consequently, the Army as well as the other services will have to simultaneously develop new warfighting technologies while improving their capability to conduct peace operations. If history provides any useful lesson to guide transformation, it is that there is great risk in establishing military forces too specialized for specific contingencies. They must be able to perform a myriad of missions, and will assuredly also eventually have to fight an unexpected major war in an unexpected place. 2 CHAPTER 1 PEACETIME TRANSFORMATION IN THE U.S. ARMY, 1865-1965 Brian McAllister Linn Today’s officers may not appreciate just how great a transformation the Cold War imposed on the U.S. Army. As they struggle to articulate an Army Vision for the 21st century, they continue to define the Army’s “traditional” strategic purposes as support for the nation’s allies, land dominance, promoting regional stability, meeting small scale contingencies, deterring aggression, and, if necessary, fighting a major theater war anywhere in the world. Virtually no one can remember that