JULY 2004 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1829

Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2002

RICHARD J. PASCH,MILES B. LAWRENCE,LIXION A. AVILA,JOHN L. BEVEN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, NOAA/NWS, Miami, Florida

(Manuscript received 21 July 2003, in ®nal form 16 January 2004)

ABSTRACT The 2002 season is summarized. Although the season's total of 12 named storms was above normal, many of these were weak and short-lived. Eight of the named cyclones made landfall in the , including Lili, the ®rst hurricane to hit the United States in nearly 3 yr.

1. Introduction and Lili, originated from tropical waves. Two of the named systems, Gustav and Kyle, started out as sub- Although the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season featured tropical cyclones. 12 tropical storms, 2 more than the long-term average, Figure 2 show the sea surface temperature anomalies there were only 4 hurricanes, 2 fewer than the long- over most of the North Atlantic basin for August and term average. In an average season there are two ``ma- September of 2002, as well as the points of formation jor'' hurricanes [i.e., maximum 1-min average winds Ϫ1 of the tropical and subtropical cyclones during these greater than 96 kt (1 kt ϭ 0.5144 m s ), corresponding months. The sea surface temperature anomaly ®elds to category 3 or higher on the Saf®r±Simpson hurricane were obtained from the National Centers for Environ- scale (Simpson 1974)], and in 2002 Isidore and Lili mental Prediction±National Center for Atmospheric Re- attained this status. An overall measure of seasonal ac- search (NCEP±NCAR) reanalysis project (Kistler et al. tivity is provided by the ``accumulated cyclone energy'' 2001). It can be seen that much of the Atlantic between (ACE), which is de®ned as the sum of the squares of 10Њ and 20ЊN, between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, the wind speed of all named tropical cyclones every 6 was slightly cooler than normal, whereas west of about h of the cyclone's existence. In 2002, because many of 50ЊW south of 35ЊN, the sea surface was slightly warmer the named cyclones were weak and short-lived, the ACE than normal. Although the anomalies are small, none of was 65.1 ϫ 105 kt2, or 74% of the long-term median the cyclones developed over below-normal sea surface value of 87.5 ϫ 105 kt2. By this metric, the season was temperatures. less active than normal. The vertical shear of the horizontal wind has been Gustav, the ®rst 2002 Atlantic hurricane, did not de- recognized as an important factor for velop until 11 September, the latest date for the ®rst genesis and intensi®cation for several decades. Figure hurricane since the beginning of the era of aerial re- 3 shows the departures from the long-term (1979±98) connaissance in 1944. It is also of interest that the eight mean of the magnitude of the 200±850-mb wind shear named tropical cyclones that formed during the month for August and September of 2002. These shear anom- of September are the most on record for a calendar alies were computed using twice-daily analyses from month. Eight named systems hit the United StatesÐ the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration albeit several of these were weak tropical storms. Lili (NOAA)/'s Global Forecast was the ®rst hurricane to make a U.S. landfall since System (GFS) and long-term means from the NCEP± Irene in October of 1999. Table 1 lists statistics for the NCAR reanalysis project (Kistler et al. 2001). Also 2002 Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes, and Fig. shown on this ®gure are the points of formation of the 1 is a map of their tracks. It can be seen that most of tropical and subtropical cyclones during these months. the cyclones originated at subtropical latitudes, north of During August, vertical shear was considerably above 25ЊN. Of the 12 named systems, only 3, Dolly, Isidore, normal over much of the , and somewhat above normal over most of the tropical North Atlantic Ocean. In September, more favorable shear anomalies Corresponding author address: Dr. Richard J. Pasch, Tropical Pre- diction Center/National Hurricane Center, 11691 SW 17th St., Miami, developed over much of these areas. The ®gure also FL 33165. shows that most of the cyclones developed in locations E-mail: [email protected] where the shear was near or below normal.

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TABLE 1. Atlantic hurricane season statistics for 2002. Max 1-min Min sea level U.S. damage Direct No. Name Classa Datesb wind (kt) pressure (mb) ($ millions) deaths 1 Arthur T 14±16 Jul 50 997 2 Bertha T 4±9 Aug 35 1007 Minorc 1 3 Cristobal T 5±8 Aug 45 999 4 Dolly T 24 Aug±4 Sep 50 997 5 Edouard T 1±6 Sep 55 1002 Minor 6 Fay T 5±8 Sep 50 998 տ5 7 Gustav H 8±12 Sep 85 960 0.1 1 8 Hanna T 12±15 Sep 50 1001 20 3 9 Isidore H 14±27 Sep 110 934 330 5 10 Josephine T 17±19 Sep 35 1009 11 Kyle H 20 Sep±12 Oct 75 980 5.0 12 Lili H 21 Sep±4 Oct 125 938 860 13 a T ϭ tropical storm (wind speed 34±63 kt); H ϭ hurricane (wind speed 64 kt or higher). b Dates begin at 0000 UTC, include tropical depression stage (wind speed less than 34 kt), and exclude extratropical stage. c Although some damage was reported, no speci®c amounts have been estimated.

It should also be noted that, based on the sea surface National Aeronautics and Space Administration polar- temperature anomalies over the equatorial east-central orbiting Quick Scatterometer satellite (QuikSCAT; Tsai Paci®c Ocean, a moderate El NinÄo prevailed during the et al. 2000). The above data sources are supplemented 2002 hurricane season. According to Gray (1984), the by conventional surface and upper-air observations from presence of El NinÄo usually has a suppressing effect on land stations, ships, and buoys, as well as weather radar Atlantic hurricane activity. The 2002 El NinÄo was likely observations, when available. a major contributor to the above-normal shear values over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic seen in Fig. 3. a. Tropical Storm Arthur, 14±16 July There was, however, a relaxation of the shear during September. For the season as a whole, the combined The origin of Arthur was a weak low-level circulation in¯uences of a slightly cooler-than-normal tropical At- ®rst detected in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on 9 July. lantic and an El NinÄo event were at least partially re- This system was likely associated with a decaying fron- sponsible for the below-normal activity (as measured tal zone that had persisted in the area for several days. by ACE) of 2002. The circulation and associated area of low pressure me- andered for a few days, then accelerated northeastward across the southeastern United States on 13 July in re- 2. Summaries of individual tropical storms and sponse to a midlevel trough amplifying southward along hurricanes the U.S. East Coast. The circulation moved along the Accounts of the individual storms and hurricanes in coasts of South and on 14 July. By 1800 this section are based on the ``best tracks'' prepared by UTC that day organized deep convection developed, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The best-track the system became a tropical depression centered about database is produced from a poststorm meteorological 40 n mi west-southwest of , North Car- analysis of each cyclone and consists of 6-hourly rep- olina. A midlevel low cut off from the westerlies and resentative estimates of the cyclone's center location, deepened as it dropped southward over the Canadian maximum sustained (1-min average) surface (10 m) Maritimes, and the depression responded by accelerat- wind, and minimum sea level pressure. By de®nition, ing east-northeastward. It also strengthened and became a cyclone's life cycle includes the tropical (or subtrop- a tropical storm on 15 July. By the time Arthur strength- ical) depression stage but does not include the extra- ened to its peak intensity of 50 kt on 16 July, it was tropical stage. centered about 350 n mi south of , Canada, The datasets and observing systems used by NHC for and its forward speed had increased to 35 kt. Moving the monitoring and postanalyses of the 2002 cyclones around the aforementioned low, Arthur turned north- are essentially the same as those described by Franklin ward late on 16 July and became extratropical before it et al. (2001). These include visible and infrared imagery passed over eastern Newfoundland, Canada. Thereafter, from geostationary and polar- and near-equatorial-or- the motion slowed and the cyclone became nearly sta- biting satellites, reports from reconnaissance aircraft of tionary between Newfoundland and Greenland and the U.S. Air Force Reserve Command (AFRC) and the weakened below gale strength on 19 July. NOAA Global Positioning System (GPS) dropwind- Several apparently valid ocean surface wind speeds sonde pro®les, multichannel microwave imagery from in the 45- to 48-kt range were observed within Arthur's polar-orbiting satellites, and remote surface wind mea- circulation by QuikSCAT on 15±16 July. The Canadian surements from the Sea Winds Scatterometer aboard the data buoy 44141 observed a pressure of 997.5 mb when

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC JULY 2004 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1831 . 1. Tracks of tropical storms, hurricanes, and subtropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin in 2002. IG F

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC 1832 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 132 C. Areas of cooler-than-normal sea surface Њ temperatures are shaded. Dots denote the points of formation of tropical and subtropical cyclones during these 2 months. . 2. Sea surface temperature anomalies (from the 1968 to 1996 mean) for Aug through Sep of 2002. Contour interval is 0.25 IG F

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FIG. 3. Anomalies from the long-term (1979±98) mean of the magnitude of the 200±850-mb wind shear for (top) Aug and (bottom) Sep 2002. Negative anomalies (below-normal values of shear) are shaded. Dots denote the points of formation of tropical and subtropical cyclones during these 2 months. the center of Arthur passed about 40 n mi to its south. b. Tropical Storm Bertha, 4±9 August This buoy also reported an 8-min mean wind speed of 39 kt with a gust to 52 kt when the center of Arthur Bertha was a minimal tropical storm that made land- passed. The ship Weston reported winds of 44 kt on 16 fall in southeastern Louisiana. July while located about 140 n mi south-southeast of the center of Arthur. 1) SYNOPTIC HISTORY Before Arthur became a tropical cyclone, its origi- nating low pressure system spread heavy rains across Bertha formed from a nontropical surface low pres- portions of north Florida, Georgia, and sure trough that later spawned Tropical Storm Cristobal on 13 July. Later, as an , Arthur in the western North Atlantic Ocean. This trough ex- produced rainfall accumulations of up to about 25 mm tended from the north-central Gulf of Mexico across over Newfoundland on 17 July. Reported wind speeds Florida and into the Atlantic on 1 August and moved along Newfoundland's east coast included 34 kt at Bon- little for the next two days. A poorly de®ned low pres- avista on 17 July. There were no casualties or damage sure center was ®rst noted over the north-central Gulf reported in association with Arthur. of Mexico on 3 August. Satellite, surface, and radar

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC 1834 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 132 observations indicated that the low became better or- 4) WARNINGS ganized just east of the mouth of the Mississippi River on 4 August, and the system developed into a tropical A tropical storm warning was issued at 2330 UTC 4 depression around 1800 UTC that day. The depression August for the northern Gulf Coast from Pascagoula to strengthened as it moved west-northwestward, and an the mouth of the Mississippi River including Lake Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated Borgne and Lake Ponchartrain. This warning was issued that the system became Tropical Storm Bertha near 2300 as Bertha reached minimal tropical storm strength, 1.5 UTC 4 August. The center made landfall near Booth- h before landfall. The warning was discontinued at 1200 ville, Louisiana, about 2 h later. After landfall, Bertha UTC 5 August as Bertha weakened to a depression over assumed a wobbly northwestward motion that took the land. center to the north of Lake Ponchartrain later on 5 Au- gust. The cyclone weakened back to a depression by 1200 UTC that day. c. Tropical Storm Cristobal, 5±8 August Bertha maintained its circulation over land while moving slowly westward and then southward on 6 Au- Cristobal's origin was nontropical. A low pressure gust. On 7 August, it began a southwestward motion, trough that extended from the north-central Gulf of back into the Gulf of Mexico around 0900 UTC that Mexico across the southeastern United States and into day. This motion continued until late on 8 August. While the Atlantic ®rst spawned Tropical Storm Bertha in the satellite and radar data showed periods of increased or- Gulf of Mexico. While Bertha was forming on 4 August, ganization, surface and aircraft observations showed a second area of low pressure was also developing with- only slight strengthening over the northwestern Gulf. in the trough near the South Carolina coast. This second The cyclone turned west-northwestward late on 8 Au- low moved slowly eastward and its associated convec- gust, and this motion brought the center of the depres- tion gradually became better organized; by 1800 UTC sion to the Texas coast east of Kingsville around 0800 5 August, when the low was about 150 n mi east-south- UTC 9 August. Bertha weakened quickly after landfall east of Charleston, South Carolina, it had acquired suf- and dissipated over southern Texas later that day. ®cient organization to be considered a tropical depres- sion. The depression moved slowly south-southeastward 2) METEOROLOGICAL STATISTICS over the next day and a half. Development was limited by strong northerly wind shear and a relatively dry en- The highest surface winds measured in the storm were vironment, and most of the system's convection was at NOAA buoy 42007 located at 30.1ЊN, 88.8ЊW, which con®ned to the southern portion of the circulation. The reported 10-min average winds of 33 kt at 2240 UTC surface circulation became elongated in the southwest- 4 August and 0310 UTC 5 August. The buoy reported erly ¯ow in advance of a southward-moving cold front. a peak gust of 43 kt at 0441 UTC 5 August. A nearby Nevertheless, a reconnaissance aircraft late on 6 August station operated by Louisiana State University reported found that the central pressure had fallen and that the a 34-kt wind gust at 0000 UTC 5 August. The highest depression had strengthened to a tropical storm. On 7 reported wind at a coastal site was a gust of 36 kt at a August, Cristobal began a slow eastward motion as it National Ocean Service station in Waveland, Mississip- started to come under the in¯uence of a large mid- to pi. Storm tides reached as high as 0.9 to 1.2 m (0.3 to upper-level trough moving off the U.S. East Coast. The 0.6 m above normal tide levels) along portions of the main convective activity shifted from the south to the Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana coasts. Rainfall southeast, and then to the east quadrant of the circulation totals associated with Bertha were mainly in the 75± by early on 8 August. This reorganization of the con- 150-mm range, although there were locally heavier vection was accompanied by a modest increase in winds, amounts, including reports of 260 mm at Pascagoula, to 45 kt, although there was apparently no concurrent Mississippi, and Norwood, Louisiana. No tornadoes decrease in central pressure. were reported in association with Bertha. On 8 August, with additional dry air moving into the circulation and convection becoming intermittent, Cris- 3) CASUALTY AND DAMAGE STATISTICS tobal began a sudden acceleration to the east-northeast, with its forward speed increasing from about 3 to 20 kt Press reports indicate one death associated with Ber- over a 12-h interval. By 1800 UTC, Cristobal was be- thaÐa drowning in high surf at Perdido Key State Park, coming absorbed into the frontal zone, about 300 n mi Florida, on 4 August. Damage associated with Bertha southeast of Cape Hatteras, and reconnaissance aircraft was minor, although no speci®c ®gures are available. reported some dif®culty ®nding a low-level circulation. Rains associated with the tropical cyclone produced ar- Satellite images suggest that the circulation of Cristobal eas of stream and street ¯ooding that affected some had dissipated within the frontal zone by 0000 UTC 9 structures. August.

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC JULY 2004 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1835 d. Tropical Storm Dolly, 29 August±4 September around 1800 UTC that day, centered about 120 n mi east of Daytona Beach, Florida. Dolly was the ®rst Atlantic basin tropical cyclone of Although the cyclone was in an environment of mod- 2002 to form in the deep Tropics. It developed from a erate west-northwesterly shear, it strengthened into tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa Tropical Storm Edouard by 0600 UTC 2 September. on 27 August. As the wave moved westward, ship ob- Later that day and early the next, the environment ap- servations indicated that the wave was accompanied by peared to become more hostile. Water vapor imagery a fairly distinct area of surface low pressure, and satellite suggested that dry mid- to upper-tropospheric air was images showed increasing thunderstorm activity. The overspreading the cyclone center, and radiosonde data system became a tropical depression at 1200 UTC 29 August about 550 n mi southwest of the westernmost indicated 30±40-kt winds near the storm at the 200-mb Cape Verde Islands. The depression quickly became bet- level. Despite this, Edouard was able to intensify further, ter organized, developing well-de®ned cyclonically and it reached its peak strength of 55 kt around 1200 curved convective bands and good out¯ow in all quad- UTC 3 September. However, very soon thereafter, the rants. It became a tropical storm by 1800 UTC on the storm began to succumb to the in¯uence of strong shear same day and reached its peak intensity of 50 kt, with and dry air aloft, and a weakening trend was underway. a minimum pressure of 997 mb, at 1200 UTC 30 August. By midday on 3 September, the associated deep con- Dolly moved toward the west and west-northwest vection had decreased, and the low-cloud circulation around the periphery of a subtropical ridge for 2 days. center was clearly exposed. Then, the tropical cyclone curved to the northwest and Soon after Edouard's genesis, steering currents weak- then north ahead of a midlevel trough, with a minor ened. From 2±3 September, the cyclone moved in a reduction in intensity around 0000 UTC 3 September clockwise loop. Then, as a weak and narrow midtro- when convection decreased. It became a nonconvective pospheric ridge developed to its north, Edouard headed remnant low late on 4 September under the in¯uence erratically westward and west-southwestward toward of strong shear, and the circulation dissipated soon there- the northeast coast of Florida. Strong shear continued after. There were no reports of damage or casualties to impact the system, and although occasional bursts of associated with Dolly. deep convection occurred near the center, the cyclone Some of the early NHC forecasts for Dolly showed was barely of tropical storm strength when the center it strengthening into a hurricane. These predictions were crossed the coastline in the vicinity of Ormond Beach, based on an expected track at low latitudesÐto the south Florida, around 0045 UTC 5 September. Edouard weak- of an area of strong upper-tropospheric westerlies. How- ened to a depression almost immediately after landfall ever the storm turned northward sooner than expected, and crossed north-central Florida. The depression which brought Dolly into a high shear environment, emerged into the Gulf of Mexico near Crystal River, where it weakened. Florida, around 1400 UTC on 5 September. Strong northwesterly shear, associated with the upper-tropo- e. Tropical Storm Edouard, 1±6 September spheric out¯ow from developing Tropical Storm Fay located over the western Gulf, precluded any redevel- Edouard made landfall on the northeast coast of Flor- opment of Edouard. On 6 September, Edouard moved ida as a minimal tropical storm. westward over the northeastern Gulf, and by 1200 UTC on that day, it was an insigni®cant low-cloud swirl with minimal deep convection. The system dissipated shortly 1) SYNOPTIC HISTORY thereafter, as it became absorbed into the larger circu- Edouard formed from a disturbance of nontropical lation of Tropical Storm Fay. origin. Cloudiness and isolated showers developed sev- eral hundred miles east-southeast of on 25 August, likely in association with a low-level distur- 2) METEOROLOGICAL STATISTICS bance that had formed along a dying frontal zone. The system moved southwestward for several days, and There were no reports of sustained tropical storm when the disturbance was located near the southwest force winds over land associated with Edouard. On 4 end of an upper-level trough a few hundred miles north September, Patrick Air Force Base reported a peak wind of , deep convection associated with the gust of 34 kt at 2127 UTC, and the St. Augustine Coastal system increased. The area of disturbed weather moved Marine Automated Network (C-MAN) station reported slowly westward over the next couple of days and, on a peak gust of 33 kt at 1900 UTC. Rainfall estimates 31 August, when the system was located just to the east from the Melbourne radar indicated maxima of 100 to of the northern Bahamas, it began to become better or- 125 mm near the Seminole/Orange County line, just ganized. By 1 September, deep convection became per- northeast of Union Park (Orange County), Florida. sistent, and surface and reconnaissance aircraft data in- Storm tides and wave action were not signi®cant, and dicate that the system became a tropical depression there were no tornadoes reported.

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3) CASUALTY AND DAMAGE STATISTICS Mexico for another 3 days, producing copious rainfall before ®nally dissipating about 65 n mi northwest of There were no reports of casualties due to Edouard. Monterrey, Mexico. Some freshwater ¯ooding occurred in Brevard, Semi- nole, and Orange Counties in Florida. This was mainly roadway ¯ooding, and damage appeared to be minor. 2) METEOROLOGICAL STATISTICS Selected surface observations from land stations and 4) WARNINGS data buoys are given in Table 2. Maximum values were generally around 0.6±0.9 m along the Texas A tropical storm warning was issued early on 2 Sep- coast, and 0.5±0.8 m along the Louisiana coast west of tember while Edouard was moving slowly northwest- Cameron. Rainfall across the upper Texas coast and in ward. The looping motion delayed the threat to the the Houston metropolitan area ranged from 200 to 300 coastline, however, resulting in the discontinuation of mm in many areas, with some estimated totals of 500± tropical storm warnings later that day. A tropical storm 600 mm near the town of Sweeney. Rainfall across met- warning was reissued for the northeast Florida coast ropolitan San Antonio ranged from 100 to 200 mm with about 16 h prior to landfall. some isolated reports in excess of 280 mm. Across the remainder of south-central Texas, rainfall exceeded f. Tropical Storm Fay, 5±11 September 200±300 mm at several locations, with a total of 439 mm reported at Fowlerton. Tropical Storm Fay was a short-lived cyclone that There were 12 con®rmed tornadoes associated with made landfall along the central Texas coast, producing Tropical Storm Fay over southeastern and south-central widespread heavy rainfall and inland ¯ooding. Texas on 6±8 September. One of these, in Fort Bend County, was of F1 intensity; all of the others were of F0 intensity. 1) SYNOPTIC HISTORY During the ®rst few days of September, a mid- to 3) CASUALTY AND DAMAGE STATISTICS upper-level trough moved southward from the United States and became stationary across the northern Gulf No deaths were reported in association with this trop- of Mexico. Deep convection developed along a surface ical cyclone. Fay damaged more than 800 single-family low pressure trough that hugged the northern Gulf of homes, 100 multifamily buildings, and nearly 100 busi- Mexico coastal areas. Gradually, the trough drifted nesses in Brazoria County. Coastal ¯oods and beach southward over the Gulf of Mexico, where sea surface erosion caused $3.5 million in damage to public roads, temperatures exceeded 30ЊC. By 4 September, a poorly bridges, and recreational areas along the upper Texas de®ned low-level circulation had developed over the coast, especially in Galveston County. Only minor northwest Gulf of Mexico. Observations from a recon- beach erosion occurred farther south. Widespread, lo- naissance ¯ight around 1800 UTC 5 September showed cally severe inland freshwater ¯ooding occurred across that the circulation had become suf®ciently well de®ned the upper Texas coastal area, north of where the center to indicate the formation of a tropical depression about of Fay passed. In Galveston County, Fay impacted at 85 n mi southeast of Galveston, Texas. least 135 residential structures, with 23 receiving dam- The depression moved steadily south-southwestward age totaling about $500,000. In Brazoria County, more and strengthened fairly quickly. The cyclone became than 1500 homes and nearly 500 cars were ¯ooded. In Tropical Storm Fay around 0000 UTC 6 September Matagorda County, 130 single-family homes and 32 about 110 n mi southeast of Galveston. Fay moved businesses were damaged by ¯ood waters. In addition, south-southwestward for 12 h before turning toward the over $1 million in damage was done to public facilities, west, where it reached a peak intensity of 50 kt by 1200 including roads, bridges, and public buildings. In Whar- UTC that day about 125 n mi southeast of Galveston. ton County, nearly 200 single-family homes were dam- Shortly thereafter, Fay moved erratically in a general aged or destroyed by ¯ood waters. west-northwestward direction and maintained its 50-kt After Fay moved inland, its remnant low generated intensity for nearly 24 h until its landfall at 0900 UTC widespread showers and thunderstorms that, in turn, 7 September on the southern Matagorda Peninsula, produced torrential rainfall and extensive ¯ooding about 10 n mi east of Port O'Connor, Texas. After mak- across southern Texas. Some homes and businesses ing landfall, the broad circulation reformed farther across the area were damaged because of the ¯oods. Ten north, about 25 n mi northwest of Palacios, Texas. Fay homes were damaged because of ¯oods in La Coste in then turned toward the west and accelerated to about 15 Medina County, while another 20 homes were damaged kt. By 0600 UTC 8 September, Fay degenerated into a in Pearsall in Frio County. Widespread minor damage remnant low pressure system about 30 n mi southwest also occurred to roads and bridges across Bexar, Medina, of Hondo, Texas. However, the rather tenacious remnant Wilson, Atascosa, Frio, Comal, and Guadeloupe Coun- low meandered across southern Texas and northeastern ties because of the ¯oods. However, the remnants of Fay

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC JULY 2004 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1837 brought much-needed rainfall to help alleviate water area of light winds with multiple embedded low-level shortage problems in the drought-stricken regions of cloud swirls, and aircraft and satellite position ®xes of- west-central and south Texas. ten differed by 30 to 50 n mi. Gustav turned north early Six of the tornadoes spawned by Fay caused damage on 10 September while convection became better or- and/or injuries. Late on 6 September, a tornado de- ganized near the center. Based on the change in con- stroyed a beach house in Surfside (Brazoria County), vective organization, and the development of a band of and a second tornado damaged a home in Matagorda strong winds closer to the center, it is estimated that the County near Van Vleck. Shortly after midnight on 7 cyclone transformed into a tropical storm around 1200 September a third tornado hit west Columbia, knocking UTC. Maximum sustained winds reached 55 kt while down numerous trees along Highway 36, and a fourth the center passed between Cape Hatteras and Diamond destroyed a mobile home, damaged three other mobile Shoals, North Carolina, about 2100 UTC that day. Al- homes, and tore apart a barn in Boling (Wharton Coun- though the circulation center stayed offshore, the radius ty). The ®fth and most signi®cant tornado (F1 intensity) of maximum winds passed over portions of the Outer touched down early on 7 September in Fort Bend Coun- Banks. Gustav turned northeastward when it reached ty, where it destroyed a mobile home and injured three the Cape Hatteras area, then accelerated northeastward people. This same tornado later crossed the San Bernard on 11 September in southwesterly ¯ow caused by bar- River into Wharton County, where it destroyed another oclinic cyclogenesis over the states and mobile home and heavily damaged two others. A sixth southeastern Canada. When the tropical cyclone inter- tornado also caused minor damage near Hungerford in acted with the baroclinic system, it intensi®ed. Gustav Wharton County on 7 September. became the 2002 season's ®rst hurricane just before 1200 UTC 11 September and reached a maximum in- tensity of 85 kt near 1800 UTC that day. It weakened 4) WARNINGS slightly before making landfall over the southern part A tropical storm warning was issued at 2100 UTC 5 of Cape Breton, Nova Scotia, near 0430 UTC 12 Sep- September, roughly 36 h prior to landfall. tember as a hurricane with 80-kt winds. The cyclone was becoming extratropical when it made a second land- fall over southwestern Newfoundland near 0900 UTC. g. Hurricane Gustav, 8±12 September Gustav lost all tropical characteristics by 1200 UTC Hurricane Gustav was a category 2 hurricane of sub- while it moved northeastward and decelerated across tropical origin. It struck the of North Car- Newfoundland. The remnant extratropical low moved olina as a tropical storm and made landfall over the into the Labrador Sea, where it turned northwestward eastern end of Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland late on 13 September and dissipated on 15 September. as a category 1 hurricane.

2) METEOROLOGICAL STATISTICS 1) SYNOPTIC HISTORY The maximum winds reported in Gustav were ¯ight- An area of showers developed between the Bahamas level winds of 104 kt from both Air Force Reserve (at and Bermuda on 6 September in association with a de- 850 mb) and NOAA (at 700 mb) Hurricane Hunters veloping upper-level trough and a weak surface trough. around 1900±2000 UTC 11 September. Using the stan- The upper-level trough ampli®ed over the next 2 days dard ¯ight-level-to-surface reduction for eyewall con- as an upstream ridge was enhanced by Tropical Storm ditions (Franklin et al. 2003a), the NOAA report would Fay over the Gulf of Mexico. As this occurred, con- yield a surface wind estimate of 90±95 kt. However, vection increased in both coverage and intensity, and neither aircraft reported an or eyewall, so a more the surface trough became better de®ned. A broad area conservative reduction for convective bands would yield of surface low pressure formed from the system, a cou- a surface wind estimate of 85±90 kt. This is in better ple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas, late on 7 agreement with the 80±85-kt estimated surface wind September. By 1200 UTC 8 September, the cyclone had from the Air Force aircraft and with an 83-kt surface developed a well-de®ned surface circulation and a wind measured by the Stepped Frequency Microwave broad, curved band of convection around, but over 60 Radiometer instrument on the NOAA aircraft. The min- n mi removed from the center. Therefore, the system imum aircraft-reported pressure on a formal ®x was 969 became a subtropical depression at that time, about 440 mb at 1701 UTC 11 September. However, a GPS drop- n mi south-southeast of Cape Hatteras. Later that day, windsonde released later that day near the ¯ight-level an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft inves- wind maximum southeast of the center reported a sur- tigated the cyclone and found it had become Subtropical face pressure of 964 mb, indicating that, as Gustav Storm Gustav. moved rapidly northeastward, the wind center was dis- Gustav moved erratically west-northwestward on 9 placed to the northwest of the pressure center. September as it slowly strengthened. On that day, the Table 3 is a selection of surface observations in Gus- cyclone's central region was composed of a fairly large tav. Many ships and buoys between North Carolina and

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC 1838 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 132 89.7 96.3 99.8 83.3 85.6 (mm) 254.0 129.8 125.5 162.3 227.3 141.7 148.8 101.6 100.1 220.5 206.2 257.3 110.5 109.5 439.2 254.0 260.9 327.9 103.9 126.0 229.4 Total rain d (m) Storm tide c (m) Storm surge 45 41 34 38 62 72 41 65 40 49 26 (kt) Gust b e e h h h 36 33 42 29 30 41 23 29 50 45 33 32 (kt) Sustained Max surface wind speed a (UTC) 06/2000 07/0300 06/1945 06/2020 07/0354 06/1943 08/1000 07/2110 07/0354 07/0512 06/1923 06/2009 06/2221 Date/time 999.6 (mb) 1003.9 1004.3 1006.9 1004.4 1006.4 Pressure 2. Selected surface observations for Fay, 5±11 Sep 2002. ABLE T Min sea level pressure (UTC) 07/0100 07/0000 07/0900 07/0000 06/1811 1002.4 07/0008 28 37 112.5 06/1307 06/2314 Date/time g g g W) W) Њ Њ W) W) Њ Њ (TCOON) (TCOON) i i site) site) N, 97.1 N, 94.1 f f Њ Њ N, 94.4 N, 95.4 Њ Њ Location 42035 (29.3 PTAT2 (27.8 42019 (27.9 SRST2 (29.7 Camp Verde 2W Canyon Lake Dam Cheapside (Gonzales Co.) Clute (TECQ Freeport RTNS Angleton Arpt (KLBX) Angleton Courthouse Austin/(Georgetown Arpt) Austin/Great Hills Austin/Lake Georgetown Austin/Leander 5SW Bay City Bay City Co-op Berram 3N (Burnet Co.) Boerne (Kendall Co.) Clute (TECQ Derby/Frio River Devine 6SSE Dilley (Frio Co.) E. Matagorda (TCOON) Elgin (Bastrop Co.) Falcon Dam Folwerton Coop (FWTT2) Freeport Army Corps ofFreeport Engineers Dow Chemical Freeport/Hwy 36 Bridge Freeport RTNS Galveston Arpt (KGLS) Galveston Causeway/I-45 Goliad 1SE Coop (GLIT2) Harlingen Houston IAP (KIAH) C-MAN stations Buoys Texas

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC JULY 2004 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1839 95.8 98.3 96.5 87.9 83.3 98.0 89.2 83.8 98.8 81.8 (mm) 153.2 185.4 157.5 153.2 172.5 112.8 175.8 275.8 210.8 146.3 281.7 169.4 299.7 165.9 158.2 102.4 304.8 252.0 Total rain d (m) Storm tide c (m) 0.61 Storm surge 41 44 50 45 (kt) Gust b 34 38 39 (kt) Sustained ) Max surface wind speed a Continued (UTC) 07/0200 35 07/0600 06/1718 06/2245 06/1959 06/2248 Date/time 2. ( ABLE T 999.7 (mb) 1004.0 1003.4 1003.5 Pressure Min sea level pressure (UTC) 07/0600 07/0000 06/1959 07/0100 06/1345 1004.4 06/2037 33 44 07/0700 1001.3 07/0518 42 55 Date/time g g g j f g Location San Antonio/Five Palms San Antonio/Loop 410 San Antonio/New Dawn San Saba Seguin 8S Taylor Ranch/San Saba Tow 10ESE (Llano Co.) Yorktown West Galveston Bay (TCOON) Karnes City 2N Kelly AFB (KSKF) La Grange/Colorado River Lane City Laredo Arpt (KLRD) Luling 12NE Jamaica Beach Coop McAllen Mercedes New Braunfels 3ENE Galveston North Jetty (TCOON) Galveston South Jetty (TCOON) Galveston North Jetty (TCOON) Palacios Arpt (KPSX) Pearsall 9E (Frio Co.) Pearsall (Frio Co.) Galveston Pleasure Pier (NOS) Raymondville Refugio 2NW (GOIT2) Refugio 3SW (REFT2) Rio Grande City Round Rock Sabinal (Uvalde Co.) San Antonio Arpt (KSAT) Zapata Port Aransas Port O'Connor (TCOON) Except as noted, sustained wind averaging periodsStorm for tide C-MAN is and water land-based height ASOS above reports National are Geodetic 2 Vertical min; Datum buoy (1929Texas averaging Coastal mean periods Oceanic sea are Observing level). 5-min 8 Network, average. min. Texas A&M University, Corpus Christi, TX. Date/time is for sustained wind when bothStorm sustained surge and is gust water are height listed. above normal10-min astronomical average. tide level. Texas Commission on Environmental Quality Real-Time Navigation System. National Ocean Service. a b c d e f g h i j

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC 1840 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 132 49.5 15.5 57.7 94.0 (mm) 119.9 124.5 104.9 102.1 108.0 100.1 Total rain d (m) Storm tide c (m) Storm surge 56 39 68 55 48 55 38 36 47 53 64 66 46 35 62 35 61 44 60 40 61 57 52 (kt) Gust b e e e e 32 37 44 26 25 35 52 37 37 31 48 66 36 29 44 29 44 35 47 41 44 52 46 44 (kt) Sustained Max surface wind speed a (UTC) 10/2100 10/2033 10/2130 10/2112 10/2130 10/2248 10/2054 11/0100 10/2300 10/2000 10/2030 13/0000 13/0000 13/0700 10/2010 10/1400 10/2250 10/0100 12/0414 12/0742 11/0310 10/1500 10/1420 11/1600 11/2000 11/0500 12/0500 12/0600 12/0000 Date/time 3. Selected surface observations for Gustav, 8±12 Sep 2002. 999.7 985.3 995.0 999.0 987.5 993.5 994.8 984.7 968.1 996.9 984.8 997.7 961.4 969.2 961.6 997.5 996.7 977.5 983.1 972.4 991.3 983.6 982.8 964.3 (mb) 1002.1 Pressure ABLE T Min sea level pressure (UTC) 10/1900 10/2112 10/2324 10/2145 10/1700 10/2100 12/0900 12/1000 12/0800 10/1700 10/2000 11/0000 10/1000 12/0345 12/0300 12/0500 11/0600 10/0500 11/1300 11/1700 11/1900 11/0400 12/0000 12/0500 11/2300 Date/time f f f f f Location Alligator River Bridge Beaufort (KMRH) Cape Hatteras Coast Guard Cape Hatteras Fishing Pier Cedar Island Duck (NOS) Elizabeth City (KECG) Frisco (KSHE) Manteo (KMQI) Nags Head Ocracoke St. Paul's Island (CWEF) Buoy 44251 Buoy 44255 Cape Lookout (CKLN7) Diamond Shoals (DSLN7) Duck (DUCN7) Frying Pan Shoals (FPSN7) Ashdale Hallifax Hart Island (CWRN) Liverpool Lyon's Brook Middleboro Sable Island (CWSA) Buoy 44145 CharlottetownBuoy 41001 Buoy 41002 Buoy 44004 Buoy 44008 Buoy 44011 Buoy 44014 Buoy 44137 Buoy 44139 Buoy 44142 12/0245 35 52 1.2±1.5 70.1 Except as noted, sustained wind averaging periodsStorm for tide C-MAN is and water land-based height ASOS above reports National are Geodetic 2 Vertical Datum min; (1929 buoy mean averaging sea periods level). are 8 min. Date/time is for sustained wind when bothStorm sustained surge and is gust water are height listed. above normal10-min average. astronomical tide level. Incomplete record. North Carolina a b c d e f Nova Scotia Buoys and C-MAN

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC JULY 2004 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1841

Nova Scotia were affected by this cyclone. The most toppled and local ¯ooding occurred. In Nova Scotia, notable observations were from the ship Tellus, which some docks were damaged and trees blown down. reported 88- and 90-kt winds at 1500 and 1600 UTC 11 September, respectively. While these winds are con- 4) WARNINGS sistent with the estimated strength of Gustav at the time, the ship was far enough from the center that the speeds A tropical storm watch was issued for portions of the appear somewhat suspect. The oil rig WCY533 near North Carolina coast at 2100 UTC 8 September, while Sable Island, Nova Scotia, reported 74-kt winds and a a tropical storm warning was issued for much of the 965.0-mb pressure at 0300 UTC 12 September. Other watch area at 0300 UTC 9 September, 48 and 42 h, noteworthy ship and buoy reports include a 55-kt wind respectively, before the closest approach of the center reported by the Columbus Canterbury near the North to the Cape Hatteras area. The Canadian Hurricane Cen- Carolina coast at 1900 UTC 10 September and a 964.3- ter in Halifax, Nova Scotia, issued warnings for wind, mb pressure from Canadian buoy 44142 at 2300 UTC rain, and storm surge for large portions of New Bruns- 11 September. wick, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, and Prince Edward Gustav brought tropical storm force winds to portions Island. of the North Carolina coast and eastern Nova Scotia. In North Carolina, the C-MAN station at Diamond Shoals h. Tropical Storm Hanna, 12±15 September reported 52-kt sustained winds with a gust to 61 kt at 1400 UTC 10 September and a 984.8-mb pressure at Hanna was a poorly organized tropical storm that 2000 UTC. The Cape Hatteras Coast Guard station re- nevertheless produced rip currents responsible for three ported a gust of 68 kt at 2130 UTC. In Nova Scotia, deaths off the beaches of the Florida panhandle. Sable Island reported 48-kt sustained winds with a gust to 66 kt at 0414 UTC 12 September, while Hart Island 1) SYNOPTIC HISTORY reported a pressure of 961.4 mb at 0345 UTC. Tropical storm±force winds were also reported on Prince Edward Hanna formed in the Gulf of Mexico from a complex Island as the wind ®eld of Gustav expanded during ex- interaction of a tropical wave, an upper-level low, and tratropical transition. a surface trough. In the days preceding genesis, a broad Storm surge ¯ooding of 1.5 to 1.8 m above normal surface trough in the wake of Hurricane Gustav tide levels occurred along the inland side of the Outer stretched from the western Atlantic across South Florida Banks in Hyde and Dare Counties, North Carolina. This and into the central Gulf of Mexico. During this time occurred during a period of strong northwesterly winds a westward-moving tropical wave approached the Yu- following the passage of the center of Gustav. Storm catan Peninsula, and, when the wave reached the Gulf tides of 0.9±1.2 m above normal were reported in Cedar of Mexico on 10 September, a weak 1008-mb low Island and along the Neuse River. Tides were 0.3±0.6 formed on the western end of the surface trough. Ini- m above normal elsewhere along the coasts of North tially, there was minimal convection associated with the Carolina and southeastern . A 1.2±1.5-m storm combination of these two features; however, on 11 Sep- surge occurred at , Prince Edward Island. tember an upper-level short-wave trough over the south- Above-normal tides were also reported along the coasts ern United States cut off over the central Gulf of Mex- of northern and eastern Nova Scotia and eastern New ico, and convection began to develop to the east of both Brunswick. the upper-level low and the tropical wave/surface low. Storm total rainfalls were 50±125 mm over portions The convection became suf®ciently organized for the of the Outer Banks, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward system to warrant a Dvorak (1984) satellite classi®ca- Island. This included a 124-mm total at Ocracoke, North tion at 1800 UTC that day, and over the next 6 h con- Carolina, and a 108-mm total at Lyon's Brook, Nova vection developed closer to the surface low. Shortly Scotia. One tornado occurred during Gustav near Ocra- before 0000 UTC 12 September, a reconnaissance air- coke. It was a that moved onshore. craft found a well-de®ned low-level circulation center, and with that the ninth depression of the season had formed about 250 n mi south of Pensacola, Florida. 3) CASUALTY AND DAMAGE STATISTICS The cyclone initially had some nontropical charac- teristics, including a westward tilt with height associated Gustav directly caused one death; a swimmer at Myr- with the upper low. Despite strong southwesterly shear tle Beach, South Carolina, suffered injuries from high and a poorly organized convective structure, the de- surf and died 2 days later. Forty people had to be rescued pression became a tropical storm at 0600 UTC 12 Sep- from storm surge in the Cape Hatteras area during the tember, about 225 n mi south of Pensacola. For the ®rst height of the storm. Damage from Gustav was minor. 24 h after genesis, the low-level circulation center ro- Damage to property and vehicles in North Carolina is tated counterclockwise around the middle- and upper- estimated at about $100,000. In Canada, the worst dam- level centers, ®rst moving northeastward, but turning to age occurred on Prince Edward Island, where trees were the southwest by late on 12 September. Moving slowly

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC 1842 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 132 the following day, Hanna turned to the west and then 3) CASUALTY AND DAMAGE STATISTICS to the north ahead of an approaching midlevel trough. Three deaths are attributed to rip currents generated Hanna strengthened and reached its peak intensity of 50 by Hanna. A man drowned in rough surf near Pensacola kt with a central pressure of 1001 mb at 0000 UTC 14 Beach on the afternoon of 14 September. Two other men September, about 60 n mi south of the mouth of the drowned, one at Seagrove Beach (Walton County) on Mississippi River. In response to the approaching 14 September, and another at Panama City Beach on 15 trough, Hanna accelerated northward early on 14 Sep- September. tember, and its exposed low-level circulation center be- Minor beach erosion was reported from Dauphin Is- gan to become deformed and elongated. With nearly all land, Alabama, to Navarre Beach, Florida, as well as in the signi®cant weather well to its east, Hanna's center the Florida counties of Walton, Bay, and Gulf. Some of circulation passed over the extreme southeastern tip storm tide ¯ooding was reported on Dauphin Island and of Louisiana near 0800 UTC. Hanna then turned to the in Mobile County. Roughly 250 homes and 50 busi- north-northeast and made its second landfall near the nesses were damaged from freshwater ¯ooding in Don- Alabama±Mississippi border near 1500 UTC. Maximum alsonville, Georgia. Data from the Georgia Farm Ser- winds at both landfalls were near 50 kt. Hanna moved vices Agency indicate that agricultural damage, pri- northeastward across southern Alabama and weakened marily to the cotton and peanut crops, amounted to near- rapidly, dissipating by 1800 UTC 15 September. The ly $19 million. There were several other apparently remnants of the tropical cyclone then produced heavy minor ¯ooding events. Well after Hanna had made land- rains as they moved rapidly across Georgia and the Car- fall and weakened to a tropical depression, there was a olinas. report of a roof being blown off a house in Donalson- ville. Total damage is estimated at $20 million.

2) METEOROLOGICAL STATISTICS 4) WARNINGS Selected surface observations from land stations and data buoys are given in Table 4. At 0600 UTC 12 Sep- A tropical storm watch was issued at 1500 UTC 12 September, 41 h prior to the ®rst landfall of Hanna in tember, buoy 42003 (at 25.9ЊN, 86.0ЊW, about 50 n mi extreme southeastern Louisiana. A tropical storm warn- south-southeast of the center) reported an 8-min mean ing was issued at 0900 UTC 13 September, 23 h prior wind of 32 kt. This observation is the basis for the to landfall. Tropical storm conditions were con®ned to assignment of tropical storm status at this time. Hanna's the area under warning. peak intensity is estimated to be 50 kt, based on surface- adjusted ¯ight-level winds of 46 kt at 2346 UTC 13 September and 47 kt at 1303 UTC 14 September, as i. , 14±27 September well as a 47-kt 2-min wind from the Pensacola Auto- Hurricane Isidore was a slow-moving tropical cyclone mated Surface Observing System (ASOS) station at that hit western Cuba as a category 1 hurricane and the 1352 UTC 14 September. A wind gust to 59 kt was northern Yucatan Peninsula as a category 3 hurricane. reported at Pensacola Beach. The only ship to report It made landfall on the Louisiana coast as a strong trop- tropical storm force winds was the Nobel Star, which ical storm. reported winds of 37 kt and a pressure of 1006.0 mb at 0300 UTC 13 September, when it was about 45 n mi west-southwest of the center. A weak tornado that blew 1) SYNOPTIC HISTORY down some trees was reported in south Mobile County, A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on 9 Alabama. Gulfport Harbor reported a storm tide of 1.55 September accompanied by a large area of thunder- m, and there were other reports in the 0.9±1.5-m range storms. The convective activity decreased signi®cantly (Table 4). Minor river ¯ooding occurred along Spring while the system moved toward the west-southwest dur- Creek near Iron City, Georgia, where the river crested ing the following few days, but the wave maintained a at 4.66 m, 0.4 m above ¯ood stage. good low-cloud signature with cyclonic rotation. When Hanna and its remnants produced heavy rains across the wave approached 50ЊW, the shower activity began much of the southeastern states. These rains were largely to increase, and an upper-level became ev- con®ned to the eastern semicircle of the storm, with ident over the system. By 1800 UTC 14 September, as numerous reports of storm-total accumulations of be- the wave approached Trinidad and the northern coast of tween 125 and 250 mm. The highest reported storm Venezuela, there was enough convection and rotation to total, 395 mm, was from Donalsonville, Georgia. classify the system as a tropical depression. The de- Hanna produced an F0 intensity tornado near Theo- pression moved west-northwestward, and development dore (Mobile County), Alabama, on 14 September. Han- was halted by its interaction with land. By 1800 UTC na's remnants produced an F0 tornado in Burke County, 15 September, the system had degenerated into a tropical Georgia, on 15 September. wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea. However, as the

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC JULY 2004 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1843 70.4 87.6 96.0 93.0 77.5 53.9 (mm) 245.6 128.0 118.1 137.4 182.9 104.4 160.5 194.3 395.2 129.8 177.8 146.1 191.8 Total rain d 1.55 1.46 1.04 1.22 1.31 1.11 (m) Storm tide c (m) Storm surge 43 34 41 54 57 59 48 5043 1.13 41 48 (kt) Gust b e e (kt) 37 35 33 37 47 43 41 32 35 Sustained Max surface wind speed a (UTC) 13/0750 14/1010 13/1700 14/0720 14/1655 14/1352 14/1430 14/1437 14/1857 14/1556 Date/time (mb) 1003.5 1005.0 Pressure 4. Selected surface observations for Tropical Storm Hanna, 12±15 Sep 2002. ABLE T Min sea level pressure (UTC) 14/1300 14/0900 14/1353 1007 14/1354 1005.8 Date/time Location Dauphin Island (DPIA1) 14/1400 1005 14/1230 41 42003 42007 42039 42040 Hurlburt Field (HRT) Mariana Milligan Niceville (Co-op) Pensacola (PNS) Pensacola Beach Pensacola NAS (NPA) Tallahassee Walton County Blakely Donalsonville Co-op) Leesburg (Co-op) Newton (Co-op) Bayou Dupre Industrial Canal Gulfport Harbor Pascagoula (PQL) Waveland Cape San Blas (CSBF1) 12/2300 1010.0 14/2040 33 Belle Fontaine Coden (Co-op) Fairhope Chipley (Co-op) Crestview (Walker Elementary) Destin (DTS) Destin Middle School Eglin AFB (VPS) Eglin A-5 (Santa Rosa Island) 14/2038 1009.5 Except as noted, sustained wind averagingStorm periods tide for is C-MAN water and height land-based above ASOS National reports Geodetic are Vertical 2 Datum min; (1929 buoy mean averaging sea periods level). are 8 min. Date/time is for sustained wind whenStorm both surge sustained is and water gust height are above listed. 10-min normal average. astronomical tide level. CMAN stations Buoys a b c d e Georgia Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Florida

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC 1844 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 132 wave entered the western Caribbean Sea, it redeveloped ported the calm of the eye. There was a signi®cant storm a closed circulation by 1200 UTC 17 September and surge along the south coast of Cuba in Playa Cajio, south regained tropical depression status about 120 n mi south of Habana and in Ensenada de Cortes, Pinar del Rio. of Kingston, Jamaica. When Isidore was already in the Gulf of Mexico, rain- The depression became Tropical Storm Isidore around bands over Cuba produced a wind gust of 86 kt in as- 0600 UTC 18 September. Steering currents became sociation with an isolated tornado in the town of Can- weak, and the tropical cyclone moved very slowly to- delaria at 1600 UTC 23 September. ward the northwest, passing just west of Jamaica. Isidore The maximum winds reported in Yucatan were gusts then moved very slowly toward the west-northwest and, to 70 kt at Merida around 2350 UTC 22 September as shortly after crossing the Cayman Islands, it became a the western eyewall moved through the area. That sta- hurricane. The hurricane's winds reached 90 kt around tion reported a minimum pressure of 969.9 mb at 0000 0600 UTC 20 September as it neared the southwestern UTC 23 September. Figures 4 and 5 are satellite and coast of the Isle of Youth, Cuba. Although the minimum radar images, respectively, of Hurricane Isidore making pressure continued to fall, Isidore's winds decreased landfall on the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. somewhat just prior to landfall near Cabo Frances in Later, when Isidore was heading for Louisiana, the western Cuba at 2100 UTC 20 September with maxi- storm's winds reached an estimated 55 kt based on data mum winds of 75 kt. For more than 12 h, Isidore re- from the ship Deepwater Path®nder, which reported lentlessly pounded western Cuba. Then the hurricane sustained winds of 56 kt with gusts to 71 kt and 6-m moved westward and southwestward toward the Yu- waves at 1743 UTC 27 September. The Belle Chase catan Peninsula and restrengthened. Isidore reached its Naval Air Station in Louisiana experienced northeast maximum intensity of 110 kt by 1800 UTC 21 Septem- winds of 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt at 0155 UTC 26 ber and maintained this intensity until landfall near September. This is the highest wind reported by any Puerto Telchac on the north coast of the Yucatan, Mex- land station as Isidore made landfall on the Louisiana ico, the following day. coast. The highest observed storm surge along the U.S. Isidore meandered for 24±36 h over northern Yucatan coast was 2.5 m at Rigoletes, Louisiana, and at Gulfport and weakened to a minimal tropical storm. It then moved Harbor, Mississippi. Highest rainfall totals ranged from northward over the Gulf of Mexico where the circulation near 200 mm in the greater New Orleans area to over expanded, but the cyclone never redeveloped an inner 300 mm at Semmes (near Mobile), Alabama. There were core of strong winds. Isidore made landfall with winds nine tornadoes reported in the United States: three oc- of 55 kt and a minimum pressure of 984 mb just west curred in extreme southern Alabama on 25±26 Septem- of Grand Isle, Louisiana, at 0600 UTC 26 September. ber, all of F0 intensity, and six were observed in the Once it moved inland, Isidore weakened to a tropical Florida panhandle on 25 September, two of F1 intensity depression and produced torrential rains while moving and four of F0 intensity. Selected surface observations north-northeastward across the southeastern United in Isidore from land stations and data buoys are given States. It became an extratropical storm over south- in Table 5. western Pennsylvania around 1800 UTC 27 September and was then absorbed into a frontal zone. 3) CASUALTY AND DAMAGE STATISTICS Press reports indicate that there were two deaths at- 2) METEOROLOGICAL STATISTICS tributable indirectly to Isidore in Merida, Mexico. One Isidore's estimated peak intensity of 110 kt represents was an electrocution by a downed power line, and the a compromise between reconnaissance winds adjusted other was in a weather-related car crash. Five direct to the surface and satellite estimates. It is interesting to deaths occurred in the United States. On 22 September, note that this hurricane's minimum central pressure, 934 a man drowned in a rip current near Port Fourchon, mb, typically would correspond to a higher maximum Louisiana, and another drowned in the surf at Manatee wind speed. This illustrates the limitations of using pres- County Beach, Florida; both of these deaths occurred sure as an indicator of tropical cyclone intensity. while Isidore was near the north coast of the Yucatan Isidore moved very close to Cayman Brac, which Peninsula. A man drowned in a vehicle parked near a reported sustained winds of 42 kt with gusts to 61 kt at casino in Mississippi when the storm surge inundated 0325 UTC 19 September. During the time Isidore was the parking lot. Another man died when a tree fell across near the Isle of Youth, the eye contracted to 8 n mi, and his car in eastern Mississippi, and a man drowned after based on data from a GPS dropwindsonde in the eye- driving his vehicle into 3 m of water in Clarksville, wall, surface winds were near 90 kt. Surface observa- Tennessee. An indirect death occurred in Mississippi tions, along with aircraft and dropwindsonde data, sug- when a man suffering from cardiac arrest could not be gest that Isidore's intensity was 75 kt when it crossed reached by rescuers because of ¯ood waters. western Cuba. The minimum pressure measured in Cuba Damage from Isidore in Jamaica was mainly related was 970 mb at Isabel Rubio, and that station experienced to torrential rains. In western Cuba and the Yucatan wind gusts to 74 kt. Several locations in the area re- Peninsula, there was severe damage, primarily to the

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC JULY 2004 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1845 . 4. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Isidore at 1945 UTC 22 Sep 2002. IG F

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC 1846 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 132

FIG. 5. Image of Hurricane Isidore from Cancun, Mexico, radar at 1918 UTC 22 Sep 2002.

agriculture and cattle industries. According to the 4) WARNINGS weather services of Cuba and Mexico, numerous houses and power lines were damaged by wind. In the United Since Isidore threatened to affect several land areas, States, the American Insurance Services Group reported a large number of watches and warnings were issued that insured losses due to Isidore totaled $165 million. by the NHC or coordinated with various Caribbean Using a two-to-one ratio of overall to insured damage countries. A hurricane warning was issued for western gives a total damage estimate of $330 million. Most of Cuba about 45 h prior to landfall. A hurricane warning the damage occurred in Louisiana. was issued for the northern coast of the Yucatan Pen-

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC JULY 2004 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1847 insula about 36 h prior to landfall. Along the northern 19 September about 750 n mi east-southeast of Ber- Gulf of Mexico coast, a tropical storm warning was muda. Thunderstorms gradually developed into narrow issued about 39 h prior to landfall. bands a few hundred miles away from the well-de®ned low-level circulation center. Surface winds gradually in- creased to 25 kt early on 20 September, and the overall j. Tropical Storm Josephine, 17±19 September satellite cloud pattern became much better organized. Josephine was of nontropical origin, forming from a By 1800 UTC that day, it is estimated that a subtropical weak low pressure system along a dissipating, nearly depression developed from the system, centered about stationary frontal zone about 750 n mi east of Bermuda 715 n mi east-southeast of Bermuda. Later that day, the on 16 September. Over the next day as the low moved depression made a clockwise loop. The cyclone slowly westward, a small area of deep convection strengthened into Subtropical Storm Kyle at 0600 UTC formed near the low-level circulation center. Thus, the 21 September, while centered about 680 n mi east of system's cloud pattern changed from one that resembled Bermuda. Deep convection developed near the center, a nontropical cyclone to that of a tropical cyclone. It is and Kyle gradually acquired warm-core tropical char- estimated that the system became a tropical depression acteristics. It is estimated that Kyle became a tropical around 1200 UTC 17 September while centered about storm at 1800 UTC 22 September about 760 n mi east 620 n mi east of Bermuda. The tropical cyclone moved of Bermuda. Embedded in weak steering currents, Kyle slowly north-northwestward to northward for about 24 drifted erratically toward the southwest for about a week h. Deep convection associated with the system was in- and steadily intensi®ed. The cyclone became a hurricane termittent, and at times the low-level center became ex- at 1200 UTC 25 September about 550 n mi east-south- posed. However, the cyclone strengthened slightly and east of Bermuda. A peak intensity of 75 kt is estimated is estimated to have reached tropical storm intensity by to have occurred at 1200 UTC 26 September about 425 0600 UTC 18 September, based on a report of 37-kt n mi east-southeast of Bermuda. Kyle maintained this winds from the ship Cool Express as well as QuikSCAT intensity for the next 24 h before gradually weakening and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) winds under the in¯uence of moderate northwesterly to north- near 35 kt around that time. Josephine then accelerated erly vertical shear. northeastward in the ¯ow ahead of a deep-layer mid- After Kyle weakened below tropical storm strength latitude trough. The system lost its tropical character- at 1800 UTC 30 September, the cyclone made a slow istics around 1200 UTC 19 September, at which time a counterclockwise loop about 300 n mi west of Bermuda report from the ship Albatros indicated that the cyclone from 5 to 8 October. Afterward, Kyle moved westward had strengthened. That vessel reported winds near 50 and then northwestward before making landfall along kt about 75 n mi southeast of the center. Soon thereafter, the South Carolina coast late on 11 October. During this the storm merged with a larger extratropical low and period, ¯uctuations in intensity occurred and Kyle frontal system. strengthened back into a tropical storm on 1, 6, and 11 There were no reports of damage or casualties as- October. sociated with Josephine. After making its ®rst landfall near McClellanville, South Carolina, at around 1700 UTC 11 October, Trop- ical Storm Kyle moved northeastward and skirted the k. , 20 September±12 October remaining upper coastline of South Carolina. Its center Hurricane Kyle lasted for 22 days, making it the third moved inland again a few hours later near Long Beach, longest-lived tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin, sur- North Carolina, around 2200 UTC. Kyle weakened to passed for longevity only by Ginger of 1971 and Inga a tropical depression by 0000 UTC 12 October near of 1969. It was a category 1 hurricane for a few days Surf City, North Carolina, and then strengthened back and eventually made landfall along the southeastern into a tropical storm over Pamlico Sound 6 h later. It United States coast as a weak tropical storm before mov- exited the eastern portion of the state near Nags Head ing back out to sea. at around 0800 UTC. A little later that day, the cyclone merged with a cold front when it was located about 280 n mi south-southwest of Nantucket, . 1) SYNOPTIC HISTORY Kyle formed from a nontropical low pressure system 2) METEOROLOGICAL STATISTICS in the central North Atlantic Ocean. A cold front moved across Bermuda on 13 September and stalled to the Selected surface observations from land stations and southeast of the island by 15 September. The stationary data buoys are given in Table 6. The estimate of 35-kt front gradually weakened and became an elongated area winds at landfalls along the South Carolina and North of low pressure by 18 September. A sharp midlevel Carolina coasts were based on reconnaissance ¯ight- short-wave trough moved off the southeast coast of the level data and offshore buoy reports of 10-min average United States and likely acted to trigger development wind speeds of 35 kt with gusts to 40 kt. However, of a stationary surface low pressure center by 1200 UTC tropical storm±force winds were con®ned to offshore

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC 1848 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 132 (mm) 121.9 279.4 221.0 302.3 190.5 134.6 111.8 Total rain d 1.80 1.86 (m) Storm tide c (m) 2.52 139.7 2.28 2.53 Storm surge 43 35 42 48 45 51 40 58 50 59 52 62 50 50 60 42 47 37 36 35 Gust (kt) b e e e (kt) 34 38 38 39 40 46 42 37 40 42 50 35 40 34 46 Sustained Max surface wind speed a (UTC) 25/2000 26/0000 26/0800 26/0030 26/0700 26/0310 26/0800 25/2300 26/1000 26/0440 26/1129 26/1226 26/0155 26/0525 26/0757 26/0440 26/0510 25/2144 26/0725 26/1310 Date/time 5. Selected surface observations for Isidore, 14±27 Sep 2002. 998.0 989.5 988.6 987.1 984.7 989.5 986.6 989.5 992.0 991.0 991.0 985.1 985.1 985.8 985.8 985.1 987.1 989.9 (mb) 1000.2 1001.1 Pressure ABLE T Min sea level pressure (UTC) 25/2100 26/0800 26/0900 26/0500 26/1200 26/1300 26/0900 26/0900 26/0900 26/1053 26/1207 26/1147 26/0953 26/1226 26/1359 26/1316 26/1300 26/1343 26/1410 26/1345 26/1200 987.1 26/0155 41 Date/time Location Belle Chasse Naval Air New Orleans New Orleans Int. Arpt Bootheville East Lake Pontchartrain Slidell Rigoletes Sea Rim State Park Gulfport Pascagoula Dauphin Island Mobile State Docks Middle Bay Light House Brookley Field Bay Minette Mobile Semmes Kessler Point Cadet 42002 42003 42039 42040 42041 42007 Louisiana Mississippi CSBF1 BURL1 DPIA1 GDIL1 Alabama Buoys C-MAN stations United States

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC JULY 2004 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1849 690.9 480.1 480.1 497.8 353.1 454.7 370.8 160.0 566.4 (mm) 170.2 154.9 Total rain d rts are 10 min. 1.59 231.1 (m) 624.8 353.1 355.6 553.6 152.4 Storm tide c (m) Storm surge 72 71 67 57 74 53 44 43 45 46 49 55 47 49 44 38 35 Gust (kt) b (kt) 71 54 43 45 37 63 50 35 Sustained ) Max surface wind speed a Continued 5. ( (UTC) 20/1310 20/1045 20/1235 20/1200 20/2150 21/1745 22/0030 22/0130 22/1540 26/1256 26/1221 26/1340 26/0839 26/0130 26/0330 26/0830 26/0807 26/1258 26/0653 Date/time ABLE T 999.9 999.5 991.4 990.9 995.7 970.0 992.6 993.6 (mb) 1000.6 1004.2 1001.9 Pressure Min sea level pressure (UTC) 21/0600 21/2100 21/2220 21/2140 21/0000 21/0000 21/0000 20/1000 20/1500 20/1100 20/1100 26/1153 995.0 26/0258 18/0900 1007.5 18/104521/2140 41 990.4 21/0045 37 58 447.0 Date/time Location 78310 Cabo San Antonio 78315 Pinar del Rio 78317 Paso Real 78313 Isabel Rubio 78312 Santa Lucia 78316 La Palma 78318 Bahia Honda 78324 Punta del Este 78321 La Fe 78309 Cuba-Francia 78221 Nueva Gerona Merida 23/0000 969.9 22/2350 70 147.3 78314 San Juan 78311 La Bajada Pensacola Pensacola Naval Air (NPA) Destin Eglin Air Force (VPS) Hurlburt Field (HRT) Pensacola Beach Perdido Key Pensacola Escambia Fort Walton Beach Apalachicola (ASOS) Panama City (ASOS) Pinar del Rio Cayman BracIsla de la Juvenitud 19/0325 1001.0Yucatan 19/0325 42 61 Florida Kingston Cotton Tree Gully Mount Nelson Cedar Valley Except as noted, sustained wind averaging periodsStorm for tide C-MAN is and water land-based height ASOS above reports National are Geodetic 2 Vertical min; Datum buoy (1929 averaging mean periods sea are level). 8 min. Non-U.S. wind repo Date/time is for sustained wind when bothStorm sustained surge and is gust water are height listed. above normal10-min astronomical average. tide level. Cayman Islands Cuba Mexico a b c d e Jamaica

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC 1850 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 132 41.9 46.2 76.20 83.8 (mm) 124.7 161.2 148.5 135.8 142.2 134.6 120.1 Total rain d (m) Storm tide c (m) 0.15 0.15 0.15 Storm surge 34 34 43 43 42 37 38 34 40 51 (kt) Gust b e e (kt) 51 45 35 20 25 41 36 Sustained Max surface wind speed a (UTC) 11/1400 29/0600 30/0320 11/0307 11/2100 11/2210 12/1300 11/2130 11/2145 11/2100 11/2100 11/1434 11/1400 11/1720 Date/time 6. Selected surface observations for Kyle, 20 Sep±12 Oct 2002. (mb) 1014.5 1007.7 1011.1 1009.1 Pressure ABLE T Min sea level pressure (UTC) 29/0600 30/0320 11/2100 1012.0 11/1540 11/1800 Date/time W) W) W) Њ Њ W) Њ W) W) W) Њ Њ Њ Њ N, 75.3 N, 73.8 N, 77.6 Њ Њ N, 79.9 Њ N, 65.8 N, 67.7 N, 79.1 Њ Њ Њ Њ Location FPSN7 (33.5 FBIS1 (32.7 41652 (28.7 DSLN7 (35.2 ALSN6 (40.5 41536 (21.8 41004 (32.5 Hunter Field (KSVN) Savannah (RAWS) Bald Head Island Carolina Beach Greenville (PGVN7) Holden Beach Oak Island Williamson Williamson 2E Charleston (KCHS) Charleston City Of®ce Edisto Beach Georgetown Coast Guard Walterboro Witherbee (RAWS) Except as noted, sustained wind averaging periodsStorm for tide C-MAN is and water land-based height ASOS above reports National are Geodetic 2 Vertical min; Datum buoy (1929 averaging mean periods sea are level). 8 min. Date/time is for sustained wind when bothStorm sustained surge and is gust water are height listed. above normal10-min astronomical average. tide level. C-MAN stations Buoys Georgia North Carolina South Carolina a b c d e

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC JULY 2004 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1851 waters in the eastern semicircle, and there were no re- Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Convective clouds be- ports of sustained tropical storm±force winds along or came suf®ciently well organized on 21 September to inland of the United States coast. Storm surge values qualify the system as a tropical depression, while cen- were generally around 0.3 m from Florida to North Car- tered about 900 n mi east of the Windward Islands. olina, with a few isolated occurrences of near 0.6 m at The tropical cyclone moved just north of due west- Fort Pulaski, Georgia, and at Charleston Harbor, South ward at over 20 kt, crossing the Windward Islands as a Carolina. Rainfall totals were generally less than 50 mm, developing tropical storm on 23 September. Lili's winds with a few isolated amounts of 125±150 mm reported. brie¯y reached 60 kt the next day, but the storm de- At least four tornadoes were reported across eastern generated to an open wave on 25±26 September in the South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina during east-central Caribbean Sea as its organization was dis- Kyle's passage. Two of these, in Georgetown, South rupted by vertical wind shear. Lili redeveloped a low- Carolina, and Beaufort County, North Carolina, were level closed circulation on 27 September. A day later, estimated to be of F2 intensity. The other two tornadoes its forward speed decreased to about 5 kt, and the system appeared to be of F0 intensity. began a slow northward jog around the north coast of Jamaica, while dumping large amounts of rain on that 3) CASUALTY AND DAMAGE STATISTICS island over a 4-day period. Resuming a west-north- westward track, Lili became a hurricane on 30 Septem- Kyle caused no signi®cant structural damage, and ber while passing over Little Cayman and Cayman Brac only minor beach erosion was reported along the North Islands. Lili continued to strengthen, and its maximum Carolina and South Carolina coastlines. Minor urban winds were near 90 kt when the center moved over the ¯ooding occurred. The Georgetown, South Carolina, southwestern tip of the Isle of Youth on the morning of tornado destroyed ®ve manufactured homes, two hous- 1 October, and over western mainland Cuba a few hours es, and a car. Twenty-eight additional structures sus- later. tained major damage. Eight people sustained minor in- After departing Cuba, Lili strengthened over the Gulf juries. In North Carolina, a damaging F1±F2 tornado of Mexico. On 2 October, while the hurricane ap- touched down near Pantego, in Beaufort County. The proached the central Gulf, it intensi®ed rapidly to an tornado ¯ipped one mobile home, blew the roof off of estimated maximum wind speed of 125 kt, category 4 a house, and destroyed seven hog houses. No injuries intensity, by 0000 UTC 3 October. Then, while still over were reported with any of the North Carolina tornadoes. water, Lili weakened even more rapidly than it had Insured losses associated with Kyle were reported to strengthened. Accelerating to about 15 kt, Lili turned be approximately $2.5 million: the total damage is es- northward and made landfall on the Louisiana coast on timated at $5.0 million. No deaths were reported in as- 3 October with an estimated intensity of 80 kt. Thus, sociation with Kyle. during the 13 h prior to landfall, the hurricane's winds decreased by about 45 kt. After moving inland, Lili was 4) WARNINGS absorbed by an extratropical low on 4 October while moving northeastward near the Tennessee±Arkansas A tropical storm warning was issued about 14 h prior border. to Kyle's ®rst landfall on the South Carolina coast, and about 19 h prior to the second landfall on the North Carolina coast. 2) METEOROLOGICAL STATISTICS Selected surface observations from land stations and l. , 21 September±4 October data buoys are given in Table 7. Sustained wind speeds Hurricane Lili crossed western Cuba as a category 2 were near 45±50 kt as Lili moved quickly across the hurricane and made landfall on the Louisiana coast as Windward Islands. A sustained wind speed of 47 kt with a category 1 hurricane. Lili also affected the Windward a gust to 68 kt was observed at Martinique early on 24 Islands as a tropical storm, the northeastern Cayman September. Islands as a category 1 hurricane, and caused serious The forward motion slowed to 5 kt as Lili moved ¯ooding in Jamaica. Nine deaths are attributed to Lili. between Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba. This slow Lili reached category 4 intensity over the Gulf of Mex- motion contributed to the copious rainfall over Jamaica ico. from 27 to 30 September, where over 600 mm was re- corded (Table 7). The highest wind report from Cuba was a 10-min 1) SYNOPTIC HISTORY average of 87 kt with a gust to 98 kt from Francia on Lili originated from a tropical wave that moved over the Isle of Youth, and this is the basis for a best-track the tropical Atlantic Ocean from the west coast of Africa wind speed of 90 kt over Cuba. The highest reconnais- on 16 September. On 20 September, the wave developed sance-measured ¯ight-level wind speed during this time a low-level cloud circulation center midway between was 87 kt. Over 150 mm of rainfall was recorded at

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC 1852 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 132 99.3 62.7 115.3 (mm) 105.1 182.6 213.4 Total rain d 2.0 (m) 0.61 1.36 1.83 1.84 2.20 3.23 3.03 3.75 3.0±3.7 Sorm tide c (m) Storm surge 58 84 46 59 77 86 63 41 60 60 54 48 72 49 47 70 70 46 35 69 66 79 88 79 52 41 44 43 (kt) Gust 104 130 b 43 54 34 46 64 47 31 51 50 43 36 54 98 36 36 56 52 31 36 41 52 63 52 33 34 (kt) Sustained Max surface wind speed a (UTC) 03/1810 03/1508 03/0910 03/1416 03/1438 03/1559 03/1604 03/1034 03/1020 03/1231 03/1640 03/1542 02/2010 02/0720 03/1140 03/0220 03/1020 01/1714 03/1559 03/0640 03/1636 03/1406 03/1514 02/2054 03/1717 03/0855 03/1732 Date/time 977.7 965.7 983.1 993.9 997.7 984.0 984.4 980.4 997.0 (mb) 1001.9 1009.0 1010.8 1010.5 1005.4 Pressure 7. Selected surface observations for Lili, 21 Sep±4 Oct 2002. ABLE T Min sea level pressure (UTC) 03/1514 03/1524 03/1623 03/1641 03/2012 03/1024 02/0800 03/0300 01/0810 03/1559 03/1514 03/2141 03/2353 03/0957 Date/time e W) Њ W) Њ N, 91.76 Њ N, 92.06 Њ Headquarters Location e 42001 42003 42007 42041 Lake Pontchartrain Mid Causeway Lake Pontchartrain RIGL1 LUMCON Mandeville Causeway New Iberia (29.9 BURL1 DRYF1 DPIA1 GDIL1 Acadiana Regional Arpt Alexandria Int. Arpt Baton Rouge Belle Chase Boothville Burns Point/Salt Point Buras Cajun Field, Lafayette Castille Pass, near MorganCocodrie, City Terrebonne Parish Cote Blanch Island (TexasCrewboat Tech) Channel, near Calumet CSI-03 (29.44 Cypremort Point Dean Lee (Alexandria) Delcambre, Route 14 Frenier Causeway Grand Isle Iberia (Jeanerertte) Intracoastal City Jennings Kaplan (Texas Tech tower) Lafayette Regional Arpt Lake Bourne Bayou Dupre Lake Charles Regional Arpt Lake Pontchartrain LUMCON Buoys C-MAN stations Louisiana

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC JULY 2004 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1853 23.9 26.4 21.6 23.1 15.0 26.4 30.5 (mm) 217.7 105.2 110.2 587.0 514.6 550.2 605.0 560.3 158.0 157.5 Total rain d rts are 10 min. (m) 3.57 Sorm tide c (m) Storm surge 44 47 61 59 98 63 76 93 88 68 65 47 (kt) Gust b 34 39 47 50 87 43 59 77 72 47 40 41 35 (kt) Sustained ) Max surface wind speed a Continued (UTC) 03/1617 03/1002 03/1528 03/0553 01/1120 01/1625 01/1450 01/1030 24/0300 24/0800 23/1700 23/2100 Date/time 7. ( ABLE T 963.9 995.8 991.2 971.4 990.0 989.7 981.4 (mb) 1004.1 1003.4 Pressure Min sea level pressure (UTC) 03/1159 03/0943 03/1543 03/1029 03/1911 1001.4 03/1548 2701/1100 01/1550 3201/1500 01/0905 01/1550 1.65 24/0700 1006 Date/time e Location New Orleans Int. Arpt New Orleans Lakefront Arpt Perry Rice (Crowly) Terrebone Bay LUMCON Vermilion Bay/Bayou Fearman Beaumont, TX, Regional Arpt Burkeville, TX Picayune, MS Connerly Bayou, AR Chicago-Midway, IL Bloomington, IN Padukah/Barkley, KY Cincinnati-Luken, OH Pensacola, FL Fairhope, AL Cedar Valley in St.Craighead Thomas in Manchester Knock Patrick in Manchester Shewsbury in Westmoreland Sunny Hill in St. Thomas Francia Isabel Rubio Matias, Santiago de Cuba Pilon, Granma Pinar del Rio Punta del Esta San Juan y Martinez Morne des Cadets, Martinique Pt. Salines, Grenada Grantley Adams, Barbados Hewanorra, St. Lucia Except as noted, sustained wind averaging periodsStorm for tide C-MAN is and water land-based height ASOS above reports National are Geodetic 2 Vertical min; Datum buoy (1929 averaging mean periods sea are level). 8 min. Non-U.S. wind repo Date/time is for sustained wind when bothStorm sustained surge and is gust water are height listed. above normalLouisiana astronomical Universities tide Marine level. Consortium. a b c d e Other States Jamaica Cuba Other Islands

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC 1854 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 132 locations in the Granma and Santiago de Cuba Provinces level inside a house. Water levels were already 0.6±1.2 of eastern Cuba. m above normal prior to Lili's arrival. Lili spawned at Lili's peak intensity is estimated at 125 kt at 0000 least 26 tornadoes, 17 in Louisiana, and 9 in Mississippi. UTC on 3 October, while the hurricane was centered in Most were short-lived and damage was in the F0 to F1 the north-central Gulf of Mexico. This is based on a range. reconnaissance-measured 700-mb ¯ight-level wind speed of 142 kt. The aircraft also measured a minimum 3) CASUALTY AND DAMAGE STATISTICS central pressure of 938 mb. The ¯ight-level wind speed corresponds to a surface wind of 128 kt using a 90% Lili went through the Windward Islands as a tropical eyewall adjustment factor. Data from several GPS drop- storm. Landslides killed four people in St. Vincent, in- windsondes indicated sustained surface wind speeds of cluding an infant. There was damage to 400 homes in 115±123 kt near this time. Lili's eastern eyewall passed Barbados, and half the banana crop of St. Lucia was over NOAA data buoy 42001 at 2000 UTC on 2 October. destroyed. Jamaica was hard hit by heavy rain from Lili. This buoy reported a 10-min wind speed of 98 kt with Four persons, including a three-year-old child, died a gust to 130 kt, which are the highest sustained and when ¯ood waters swept them away. Flood waters also gust wind speeds ever recorded by a National Data Buoy swept away livestock and crops and caused extensive Center buoy. Figure 6 is a satellite picture of Lili as it damage to homes, bridges, roadways, and other infra- was approaching peak intensity. structure. Flooding in Jamaica, as well as in western Lili made landfall in a sparsely populated area along Cuba and Louisiana, was compounded by earlier heavy the south-central coast of Louisiana near Intracoastal rains from Hurricane Isidore. Lili also pelted Haiti's City. The highest sustained wind observed over land in south coast with wind and rain, and four people drowned the United States was 64 kt (Table 7), from a Texas Tech in that country. University mobile anemometer tower near Kaplan, There were news reports of high winds uprooting about 15 n mi north-northwest of Intracoastal City, Lou- trees, knocking out electricity, and damaging roofs in isiana. The highest recorded wind gust was 104 kt at Cayman Brac. The hurricane cut a swath of destruction Intracoastal City. The highest aircraft ¯ight-level wind across western Cuba, damaging buildings and farmland speed near the time of landfall was 88 kt at 700 mb. and disrupting communications. Some 360 000 people The highest surface wind speed estimate obtained from were reported to have been evacuated from their homes. GPS dropwindsondes during the last few hours before There was one death in the Pinar del Rio province di- landfall was 73 kt. A Shared Mobile Atmospheric Re- rectly attributable to Lili. search and Teaching (SMART) radar measured 101 kt Although Lili weakened considerably before making just above the surface south of New Iberia. The lowest landfall on the central Louisiana coast, it caused sig- surface pressure observed was 963.9 mb at the Loui- ni®cant wind and ¯ood damage in that area. Strong siana Agriclimate Information System at Crowley. winds toppled trees onto houses and into roadways, Based on the above data, the maximum wind speed at stripped shingles from roofs, and blew out windows. landfall is estimated at 80 kt. The wind and driving rain ¯attened sugar cane ®elds Lili's eyewall collapsed and its wind speed decreased throughout southern Louisiana. A combination of storm substantially during the 13 h before landfall. As the surge and rain caused levees to fail in Montegut and hurricane neared the coast, its radius of maximum wind Franklin, Louisiana. Lili also temporarily curtailed oil speed increased. Reconnaissance ¯ight-level winds near production in the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. insured the coast just south of Morgan City suggest that the property damage total obtained from the American In- highest winds were about 50 n mi east of the center, so surance Services Group is $430 million: $415 million that wind speeds near the coast south of Morgan City for Louisiana and $15 million for Mississippi. The total could have been as high as or higher than wind speeds U.S. damage is estimated at $860 million. near Intracoastal City, where the center crossed the One fatality occurred as an indirect result of Lili in coast. Crowley, Louisiana, where an elderly woman died from Rainfall across south-central and southeastern Loui- carbon monoxide poisoning from a generator. Another siana ranged from 100 to just over 200 mm, with the indirect fatality occurred in Vermilion Parish where a highest amount of 217.7 mm at Perry, just north of 79-year-old Erath man died when he fell from a ladder Intracoastal City. Over 100 mm was measured in north- cleaning up storm debris. ern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and rainfall amounts of over 50 mm spread into Arkansas. Portions 4) WARNINGS of Florida and Alabama had over 25 mm of rain. A tide gauge at Crewboat Channel near Calumet, Louisiana, There was about 20 and 23 h of lead time from the measured a storm tide water height of 3.8 m, and another issuance of hurricane warnings and landfall on the Isle at Vermillion Bay measured 3.6 m. The water height at of Youth, Cuba, and the western Cuban mainland, re- Burn's Point, south of Morgan City, was estimated at spectively. Hurricane warnings were issued for coastal 3.0±3.7 m above normal, based on the observed water Louisiana about 28 h prior to landfall.

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FIG. 7. HovmoÈller diagram of twice-daily infrared satellite images over the tropical Atlantic basin from 6 to 12 Sep 2002.

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TABLE 8. Homogenous comparison of of®cial and CLIPER average track forecast errors (n mi) for all tropical and subtropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin (including depressions) for the 2002 season. Longer-term averages for the 10-yr period 1992±2001 are shown for comparison. Forecast period (h) 12 24 36 48 72 Average 2002 of®cial error 41 72 104 138 200 Average 2002 CLIPER error 57 113 177 243 385 Average 2002 error relative to CLIPER (%) Ϫ28 Ϫ36 Ϫ41 Ϫ43 Ϫ48 (2002 number of cases) (287) (257) (228) (201) (166) Average 1992±2001 of®cial error 46 83 119 154 232 Average 1992±2001 CLIPER error 54 109 169 230 346 Average 1992±2001 error relative to CLIPER (%) Ϫ15 Ϫ24 Ϫ30 Ϫ33 Ϫ33 (1992±2002 number of cases) (2887) (2642) (2409) (2170) (1764) Average 2002 of®cial error relative to 1992±2001 mean (%) Ϫ11 Ϫ13 Ϫ13 Ϫ10 Ϫ14 Average 2002 CLIPER error relative to 1992±2001 mean (%) 6 4 5 6 11

3. Weaker systems for the formation of tropical cyclones from tropical waves. This section brie¯y summarizes tropical wave and tropical depression activity during 2002. The method- ology for tracking tropical waves over the Atlantic basin Tropical depressions has been discussed previously (e.g., Pasch and Avila 1994). Figure 7 is a HovmoÈller diagram of infrared sat- There were two tropical depressions in the Atlantic ellite imagery over the tropical Atlantic during 6±12 in 2002 that did not strengthen into tropical storms: September 2002. Note the westward-propagating cloud Tropical Depressions 7 and 14. Both originated from patterns associated with tropical waves in this diagram. tropical waves. For example, the feature over the eastern part of the A tropical wave moved from Africa to the eastern area (which moved off the African coast on 9 Septem- Atlantic Ocean on 1 September, accompanied by a low- ber) corresponds to the tropical wave that spawned Is- level circulation and a fairly well-organized area of deep idore near Trinidad on 14 September. During 2002, 64 convection. This convection soon dissipated, and the tropical waves were identi®ed and tracked. This number wave was disorganized for the next several days while is comparable to the values observed in past years. Pasch moving west-northwestward. By 7 September, the sys- and Avila (1994) have indicated that there is no apparent tem acquired enough organized convection to be iden- relationship between the number of waves tracked dur- ti®ed as Tropical Depression 7. This was a short-lived ing a season and the amount of tropical storm or hur- depression. Increasing vertical shear quickly caused its ricane activity in that season. Typically, over 60% of a dissipation on 8 September while it was located about season's tropical storms and hurricanes originate from 850 n mi southeast of Bermuda. tropical waves. However, in 2002 only 25% of the A weak tropical wave moved through the Lesser An- named systems developed from tropical waves. This is tilles on 9 October. Convection increased in association consistent with what has been observed in other El NinÄo with the wave on 12 October when it reached the south- years and with what was suggested by Gray (1984)Ð western Caribbean Sea, and a broad low pressure area namely, that the presence of El NinÄo induces an envi- formed later that day. The low moved northward near ronment in the Atlantic basin that is generally hostile the east coast of Nicaragua on 13 October, and it became better organized. The system developed suf®cient or- ganized convection to be designated Tropical Depres- sion 14 by 1200 UTC 14 October while centered about 120 n mi north-northeast of Cape Gracias a Dios on the border of Honduras and Nicaragua. The cyclone moved erratically for the next 12 h before it began accelerating north-northeastward early on 15 October. Southwesterly vertical shear associated with a deep-layer trough over the southeastern United States prevented further development and may have contrib- uted to a persistent elongation of the circulation. The center made landfall on the south coast of central Cuba on 16 October, and the cyclone was absorbed by a cold front late that day. FIG. 8. Histogram of 72-h of®cial track forecast errors (n mi) in An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft re- the Atlantic basin for 2002. ported a minimum pressure of 1002 mb on multiple

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TABLE 9. Homogenous comparison of of®cial and SHIFOR average intensity forecast errors (kt) for all tropical and subtropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin (including depressions) for the 2002 season. Longer-term averages for the 10-yr period 1992±2001 are shown for comparison. Forecast period (h) 12 24 36 48 72 Average 2002 of®cial error 5.5 9.0 11.3 14.5 20.8 Average 2002 SHIFOR error 7.4 12.0 15.6 18.0 22.0 Average 2002 error relative to SHIFOR (%) Ϫ26 Ϫ25 Ϫ28 Ϫ19 Ϫ5 (2002 number of cases) (287) (257) (228) (201) (166) Average 1992±2001 of®cial error 6.2 10.0 12.9 15.5 19.2 Average 1992±2001 SHIFOR error 8.0 12.5 16.0 19.0 22.4 Average 1992±2001 error relative to SHIFOR (%) Ϫ23 Ϫ20 Ϫ19 Ϫ18 Ϫ14 (1992±2001 number of cases) (2877) (2629) (2394) (2148) (1761) Average 2002 of®cial error relative to 1992±2001 mean (%) Ϫ11 Ϫ10 Ϫ12 Ϫ6 8 Average 2002 SHIFOR error relative to 1992±2001 mean (%) Ϫ8 Ϫ4 Ϫ3 Ϫ5 Ϫ2 occasions on 15 October. The maximum ¯ight-level stations. Although the depression caused locally heavy winds observed were 37 kt. The ships Explorer of the rains over portions of Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Sea and ZCBU5 (name unknown) reported 29-kt winds Islands, there are no reports of damage or casualties. at 0800 and 0500 UTC 15 October, respectively. There were no signi®cant observations of winds from land 4. Forecast veri®cation The National Hurricane Center issues an advisory package every 6 h for each tropical and in the Atlantic (and eastern North Paci®c) basin. This advisory package contains forecasts of the location of the center of the tropical cyclone and of the maximum 1-min surface wind speed of the cyclone. The forecasts are valid 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 h after the synoptic time of the advisory (0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC). Forecasts are veri®ed by comparison with a best-track postanalysis of each storm. Track forecast errors are de®ned as the great-circle distance between a forecast position and the best-track position for the forecast ver- i®cation time. Wind speed forecast errors are de®ned as the absolute value of the difference between the forecast wind speed and the best-track wind speed for the fore- cast veri®cation time. In previous years, forecasts were excluded from ver- i®cation when the cyclone was extratropical or below tropical storm strength at either the initial time or the verifying time. These exclusions were a continuation of a tradition started in the 1960s and early 1970s when the only available guidance models were statistical in nature, and these models were derived from datasets that excluded such cases. Today, the primary guidance models (at least for track guidance) are dynamical and are run on all tropical and subtropical cyclones, includ- ing depressions. Therefore, beginning in 2002, tropical depression±stage forecasts are included in the veri®- cation statistics. Only extratropical cases are excluded. Table 8 lists the 2002 average of®cial track forecast errors for the Atlantic basin. Errors for the Climatology and Persistence (CLIPER) model (Neumann 1972) are also listed, as well as the average of®cial errors for the FIG. 9. (top) Of®cial and (bottom) SHIPS intensity forecasts (dashed lines) for Hurricane Lili. The best-track intensity is given by previous 10 yr. The CLIPER model represents a ``no the thick solid lines. Time of landfall is indicated by the solid vertical skill'' baseline level of accuracy, and the 2002 average line. of®cial track errors range from 28% to 48% less than

Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 07:37 AM UTC JULY 2004 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1859 the corresponding CLIPER errors. For comparison, the anticipated Lili's rapid strengthening and even more rap- 1992±2001 average improvements over CLIPER are id weakening as it approached the coast. In the years listed in the table; these ranged from 15% to 33%. Also, to come, further enhancements in observations and mod- the 2002 of®cial track errors were 10% to 14% less than eling of tropical cyclones should lead to substantial im- the previous 10-yr average of®cial errors. These low provements in the prediction of intensity change by dy- of®cial track errors continue a trend of decreasing track namical models, including the much-needed ability to errors since 1970, as most recently documented by forecast extreme intensity change events. Franklin et al. (2003b). This trend is the direct result of improvements in numerical weather prediction track Acknowledgments. The authors are grateful to their model guidance. Even though the average of®cial 72-h Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) colleagues Stephen R. track error for 2002 was only 200 n mi, there were a Baig, Joan E. David, and Rick D. Knabb for assistance number of rather large errors. In fact, 60% of the errors in preparing the ®gures. Eric S. Blake of TPC provided are greater than 200 n mi. Figure 8 shows a histogram helpful comments. We also thank Chris Velden and Da- of 72-h of®cial track errors, and it is seen that there are vid Stettner of the Cooperative Institute for Meteoro- three cases of errors larger than 500 n mi. logical Satellite Studies, University of WisconsinÐ Table 9 is analogous to Table 8, except it contains Madison, for the satellite images. wind speed (intensity) forecast errors. The Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast (SHIFOR) model (Jarvinen REFERENCES and Neumann 1979) is the ``no skill'' baseline intensity forecast model. Although the 2002 average of®cial in- DeMaria, M., and J. Kaplan, 1999: An updated Statistical Hurricane tensity forecast errors are generally 20% or so smaller Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic and eastern than the corresponding SHIFOR errors at 12±48 h, there North Paci®c basins. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 326±337. Dvorak, V. E., 1984: Tropical cyclone intensity analysis using satellite is very little skill at 72 h. Also, the 2002 average of®cial data. NOAA Tech. Rep. NESDIS 11, 47 pp. intensity forecast error at 72 h is slightly larger than the Franklin, J. L., L. A. Avila, J. L. Beven, M. B. Lawrence, R. J. Pasch, previous 10-yr average. This continues a trend of little and S. R. Stewart, 2001: Atlantic hurricane season of 2000. Mon. improvement in of®cial intensity forecasts in recent Wea. Rev., 129, 3037±3056. ÐÐ, M. L. Black, and K. Valde, 2003a: GPS dropwindsonde wind years at 72 h (and only modest improvements at shorter pro®les in hurricanes and their operation implications. Wea. forecast periods). While track forecast guidance models Forecasting, 18, 32±44. are state-of-the-art dynamical prediction models that ÐÐ, C. J. McAdie, and M. B. Lawrence, 2003b: Trends in track skillfully predict the steering currents that control the forecasting for tropical cyclones threatening the United States, motion of a tropical cyclone, intensity guidance has 1970±2001. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1197±1203. Gray, W. M., 1984: Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El lagged behind. The dynamics of the inner core play an NinÄo and 30 mb quasi-biennial oscillation in¯uences. Mon. Wea. important role in tropical cyclone intensity change, and Rev., 112, 1649±1668. dynamical models do not yet have the resolution or Jarvinen, B. R., and C. J. Neumann, 1979: Statistical forecasts of observations to simulate adequately the structure of the tropical cyclone intensity for the North Atlantic basin. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC-10, 22 pp. inner core of a tropical cyclone. Currently, the best op- Kistler, R., and Coauthors, 2001: The NCEP±NCAR 50-year reanal- erational intensity guidance is the Statistical Hurricane ysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull. Amer. Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS; DeMaria and Kap- Meteor. Soc., 82, 247±268. lan 1999). SHIPS is a statistical/dynamical model that Neumann, C. B., 1972: An alternate to the HURRAN (hurricane relates intensity changes to concurrent atmospheric and analog) tropical cyclone forecast system. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS SR-62, 24 pp. oceanic variables and to atmospheric variables predicted Pasch, R. J., and L. A. Avila, 1994: Atlantic tropical systems of 1992. by a global dynamical model. A major limitation of Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 539±548. SHIPS is its inability to predict extreme events, that is, Simpson, R. H., 1974: The hurricane disaster potential scale. Weath- rapid intensi®cation and rapid weakening. Hurricane erwise, 27, 169, 186. Tsai, W.-Y., M. Spender, C. Wu, C. Winn, and K. Kellogg, 2000: Lili is a good case in point. Figure 9 shows a series of SeaWinds of QuikSCAT: Sensor description and mission over- of®cial and SHIPS intensity forecasts for Lili. Neither view. Proc. Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symp. 2000, Vol. the of®cial forecasts nor the primary guidance (SHIPS) 3, Honolulu, HI, IEEE, 1021±1023.

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