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Fiscal Incidence in Ukraine

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Fiscal Incidence in Ukraine Policy Research Working Paper 8765 Public Disclosure Authorized Fiscal Incidence in Ukraine A Commitment to Equity Analysis Public Disclosure Authorized Kateryna Bornukova Nataliia Leshchenko Mikhail Matytsin Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Poverty and Equity Global Practice March 2019 Policy Research Working Paper 8765 Abstract The paper employs the Commitment to Equity framework countries in the region, pensions are the main contribu- to present a first attempt at a comprehensive fiscal inci- tor to the redistribution effect of fiscal policy. However, dence analysis for Ukraine, encompassing the revenue and Ukraine stands out due to the relatively high equalizing expenditures components of the fiscal system, including effect of direct transfers. Fiscal policy in Ukraine is pro-poor, direct and indirect taxes, as well as direct, indirect, and with the lowest income decile benefiting the most. Overall, in-kind transfers. The fiscal system in Ukraine has high 60 percent of the population of Ukraine are net recipients redistribution effects, decreasing the Gini inequality index from the fiscal system, the main categories of recipients by 21 percentage points, and the official measure of poverty being households with two or more children, single-parent incidence by 27.6 percentage points (considering all fiscal households, and retirees. interventions including in-kind transfers). As in many other This paper is a product of the Poverty and Equity Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/research. The authors may be contacted at [email protected]. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Produced by the Research Support Team Fiscal Incidence in Ukraine: A Commitment to Equity Analysis Kateryna Bornukova, Nataliia Leshchenko, Mikhail Matytsin*,** JEL Codes: H22, H5, D31, I3 Keywords: Fiscal incidence, social spending, inequality, poverty, Ukraine, developing countries * Kateryna Bornukova is academic director of BEROC Center for Economic Research, e-mail: [email protected]; Natalia Leshchenko is an economist of CASE Ukraine, e-mail: [email protected]; Mikhail Matytsin is a research analyst in Poverty and Equity Global Practice of the World Bank, e-mail: [email protected], ** We thank Alexandru Cojocaru, Caterina Ruggeri Laderchi, Alan Fuchs and Nithin Umapathi for the excellent inputs, useful comments and suggestions. All errors are ours. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in this research note are entirely those of the authors. Contents 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 2. Macroeconomic Context .............................................................................................................................................................. 4 2.1. Poverty, growth incidence, and trends in inequality ........................................................................................... 4 2.2. Revenues and expenditures of the general government ..................................................................................... 8 Government revenues ......................................................................................................................................... 8 Government expenditures .................................................................................................................................. 9 3. Methodology of the analysis ..................................................................................................................................................... 10 3.1. CEQ approach to income concepts construction ............................................................................................ 10 3.2. Data .......................................................................................................................................................................... 12 4. Simulations by Components of the Tax-Benefit System in Ukraine .............................................................................. 12 4.1. Direct taxes and social contributions ................................................................................................................. 12 4.2. Direct transfers and pensions .............................................................................................................................. 13 4.3. Indirect taxes .......................................................................................................................................................... 15 4.4. Indirect subsidies ................................................................................................................................................... 16 4.5. In-kind transfers: Health care .............................................................................................................................. 17 4.6. In-kind transfers: Education ................................................................................................................................ 18 5. Results and Discussion .............................................................................................................................................................. 19 5.1. Main results ............................................................................................................................................................. 19 5.2. Distributional impact and marginal contributions of fiscal interventions .................................................... 21 5.3. Regional differences in fiscal policy .................................................................................................................... 23 5.4. Vulnerable groups and fiscal redistribution in Ukraine ................................................................................... 24 5.5. Efficiency of fiscal transfers ................................................................................................................................. 26 5.6. Cross-country comparisons.................................................................................................................................. 27 6. Conclusions .................................................................................................................................................................................. 29 7. References ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 31 8. Annex 1. Description of the tax-benefit system in Ukraine ............................................................................................. 32 8.1. Direct taxes ............................................................................................................................................................. 32 Personal income tax .......................................................................................................................................... 32 Temporary military tax ..................................................................................................................................... 34 Simplified tax regime for entrepreneurs ........................................................................................................ 34 Property taxes .................................................................................................................................................... 34 Land tax .............................................................................................................................................................. 34 Special taxes designed to replenish the Pension Fund ................................................................................ 34 8.2. Social contributions ............................................................................................................................................... 35 8.3. Pensions .................................................................................................................................................................. 35 The design of the Pension system in Ukraine .............................................................................................. 35 Old-age pensions ............................................................................................................................................... 36 Disability pensions ...........................................................................................................................................
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