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March 15th, 2018

Darry Sragow, Publisher Rob Pyers, Research Director

Of the 14 Republican held House seats in California (out of 53 total), Clinton beat Trump in seven. In five, all in Southern California, she is the only Democrat to have carried the district since 2012. Incumbents in two of those five districts, Ed Royce in CA 39 and Darrell Issa in CA 49, are not running for re‐election and candidate filing for those seats closed Wednesday. Once these seats opened up, the response from would‐be Members of Congress can only be described as manic. In California, the top two June primary vote getters face off in November, irrespective of their party affiliation, and the general election field in these two districts is impossible to predict.

CA 39 (Open)

Ed Royce’s retirement opens up a seat where the Republicans’ registration advantage has dwindled to just over one percent. Hillary Clinton carried it in 2016 by over eight percent. One quarter of the voters are Latino, nearly twenty percent are Asian, and nearly a third of the district’s population was born outside the United States. The June ballot is set to have a dizzying 20 candidates‐‐nine Democrats, seven Republicans, two No Party Preference candidates, and two American Independent Party candidates. With Democratic leadership sounding the alarm that this free‐for‐all could produce a fall match‐up between two Republicans, Democrats Jay Chen and Phil Janowicz dropped out in the final days of the filing period. Chen, the only Democratic candidate to have held elected office, and Janowicz were the top performers during the California Democratic Party’s pre‐endorsement conference, collectively winning more than 75% of the votes. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s concern about an overcrowded field is a partially self‐inflicted wound, having recruited both physician Mai Khanh Tran and lottery winner/former Republican Gil Cisneros in the spring of last year. The two, along with businessman Andy Thorburn, are the three best‐funded Democratic candidates remaining in the race. During the pre‐endorsement conference the three of them, residing outside the district at the time they filed to run, received a combined total of four votes from local party activists. Of the seven Republicans, most of the GOP support is expected to coalesce around three candidates who have held elected office representing much of the district. Former Assemblymember Young Kim, who has been endorsed by Royce, former State Senator Bob Huff, who represented over 80 percent of the district’s voters before being term limited in 2016, and Orange County Supervisor Shawn Nelson. Voters in Huff’s former district will also casting ballots in the recall of Democratic State Senator Josh Newman, who is being singled out for his vote to increase California’s gas tax to fund infrastructure repairs.

CA 49 (Open)

Darrell Issa last won re‐election by 1,621 votes over Democrat Doug Applegate, the smallest margin for any House incumbent in 2016. Hillary Clinton carried the district by over seven percent, and Applegate and a trio of other well‐funded Democrats were poised to give the incumbent yet another tough challenge. But the ground shifted beneath their feet when Issa announced his retirement in January. With Issa stepping down, 15 candidates had filed by the end of the nomination period on Wednesday—four Democrats, eight Republicans, a Green Party candidate a Peace and Freedom candidate, a No Party Preference candidate, and a Libertarian. A fifth Democrat bowed out before the end of the filing period. Of the eight Republicans running, current polling shows most of the GOP support going to two candidates already familiar to much of the district—moderate Assemblymember Rocky Chavez, who represents nearly two‐thirds of CA49’s voters, and Diane Harkey, a former Assemblymember who represents the district’s voters on the State Board of Equalization. First term San Diego County Supervisor Kristin Gaspar, who unseated a Democratic incumbent in 2016, is also running. While the district has shown a decidedly moderate bent, Republicans still enjoy a six percent registration advantage. On the Democratic side, Applegate, who has been running an unabashedly progressive campaign this time with the backing of the National Nurses United and the Justice Democrats, has seen most establishment support drift elsewhere, and he received just over a third of the vote at the Democratic Party’s pre‐endorsement conference. Environmental attorney Mike Levin, who raised $1.2 million in 2017 and received pre‐endorsement support of close to 60 percent, has rolled out endorsements from a slew of Democratic members of Congress. Two other Democrats, EMILY’s List‐endorsed Sara Jacobs, the granddaughter of billionaire Qualcomm founder Irwin Jacobs, and real estate investor Paul Kerr, have also filed, with both reporting fundraising hauls of over $1 million. While Applegate is the only one of the four not to raise seven figures in 2017, his name recognition remains high from his previous run and recent polling has pointed to a bottleneck for first place among Chavez, Harkey, and Applegate.