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C S a S S C C S C S A S S C C S Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat Secrétariat canadien de consultation scientifique Research Document 2004/129 Document de recherche 2004/129 Not to be cited without Ne pas citer sans Permission of the authors autorisation des auteurs Habitat-based production goals for Objectifs de production axés sur coho salmon in Fisheries and Oceans l’habitat pour le saumon coho dans le Statistical Area 3 secteur statistique 3 de Pêches et Océans Canada R.C. Bocking1 and D. Peacock2 1LGL Limited Environmental Research Associates 9768 Second Street Sidney, B.C. V8L 3Y8 2Fisheries and Oceans Canada 417- 2nd Avenue West Prince Rupert, B.C. V8J 1G8 * This series documents the scientific basis for the * La présente série documente les bases evaluation of fisheries resources in Canada. As scientifiques des évaluations des ressources such, it addresses the issues of the day in the time halieutiques du Canada. Elle traite des problèmes frames required and the documents it contains are courants selon les échéanciers dictés. Les not intended as definitive statements on the subjects documents qu’elle contient ne doivent pas être addressed but rather as progress reports on considérés comme des énoncés définitifs sur les ongoing investigations. sujets traités, mais plutôt comme des rapports d’étape sur les études en cours. Research documents are produced in the official Les documents de recherche sont publiés dans la language in which they are provided to the langue officielle utilisée dans le manuscrit envoyé Secretariat. au Secrétariat. This document is available on the Internet at: Ce document est disponible sur l’Internet à: http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/csas/ ISSN 1499-3848 (Printed / Imprimé) © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, 2004 © Sa majesté la Reine, Chef du Canada, 2004 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................... iii LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................iv LIST OF APPENDICES ..................................................................................................................v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ..............................................................................................................vi ABSTRACT.................................................................................................................................. vii RÉSUMÉ..................................................................................................................................... viii INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 1 Physical Habitats Limiting Coho Production..................................................................... 3 Predicting Smolt Abundance from Physical Habitat .......................................................... 4 Study Area........................................................................................................................... 5 Current Management of Area 3 Coho................................................................................. 6 AREA 3 COHO PRODUCTION MODEL .................................................................................. 10 DATA SOURCES AND MODEL INPUTS................................................................................. 11 Coho Distributions ............................................................................................................ 11 Accessible Stream Length................................................................................................. 12 Gradient................................................................................................................. 13 Stream Order......................................................................................................... 13 Mean Smolt Yield ............................................................................................................. 14 Model 1 ................................................................................................................. 14 Model 2 ................................................................................................................. 16 Required number of Spawners.......................................................................................... 16 Fecundity............................................................................................................... 17 Freshwater Survival.............................................................................................. 18 Sensitivity Analyses.......................................................................................................... 18 MODEL RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 19 Distribution of Nass Coho Habitat.................................................................................... 19 Accessible Stream Length................................................................................................. 19 Mean Smolt Yield ............................................................................................................. 19 Model 1 ................................................................................................................. 19 Model 2 ................................................................................................................. 22 Predicted Smolt Production.............................................................................................. 22 Predicted Spawner Requirements ..................................................................................... 26 SENSITIVITY ANALYSES ........................................................................................................ 28 Accessible Stream Length Determinations....................................................................... 28 Freshwater Survival.......................................................................................................... 30 DISCUSSION............................................................................................................................... 32 Accessible Stream Length................................................................................................. 32 Effect of Map Scale........................................................................................................... 33 Limits to Smolt Production............................................................................................... 33 Required Number of Spawners......................................................................................... 34 Comparison to Indicator Stocks........................................................................................ 36 Page i Comparison to Other Area 3 Escapements ....................................................................... 39 Predicting Total Adult Returns and Harvest Rates ........................................................... 41 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 42 LITERATURE CITED................................................................................................................. 44 APPENDICES .............................................................................................................................. 51 Page ii LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Area 3 average coho escapement, 1950 to 1999 (DFO, Prince Rupert)...........................8 Table 2. Sex ratio of coho spawners observed at the Zolzap Creek counting fence, 1998- 2002 (from Baxter 2003; Baxter and Stephens 2002, 2002a, 2002b; and Baxter et al. 2001). ..............................................................................................................................17 Table 3. Egg-to-smolt survivals for Zolzap Creek coho, 1992-1998 broods (data from Baxter et al. 2001).......................................................................................................................18 Table 4. Analysis of covariance sum of squares (SS), degrees of freedom (df) and hypotheses tests...............................................................................................................21 Table 5. Adjusted least square means by geographic group.........................................................21 Table 6. Model 1 predicted coho smolt output by Area 3 regions for gradient less than 8% and B parameter = 2, using region-wide regression. Prediction equation is ln (smolt yield) = 7.879 + 0.839*ln (length)..................................................................................24 Table 7. Model 2 predicted coho smolt output by Area 3 regions for gradient less than 8% and B parameter = 2, using Lachmach, Zolzap, and Toboggan mean smolt yields........25 Table 8. Spawner requirements to produce predicted coho smolt yield for Area 3 streams. (95% Confidence Limits are carried forward from smolt estimation confidence limits with no variance added to account for uncertainty in survivals and fecundity). ..25 Table 9. Comparison of the total length of stream habitat available to coho in Statistical Area 3 using 100% slope for different lengths of stream as a gradient barrier. ......................29 Table 10. Estimated accessible
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