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World Bank Document RESTRICTED Report No.WH-182a Public Disclosure Authorized Ihis report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views. INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Public Disclosure Authorized ECONOMIC POSITION AND PROSPECTS OF ARGENTINA Public Disclosure Authorized July 16, 1968 Public Disclosure Authorized Western Hemisphere Department CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS U.S. $1 = 350 pesos 1 peso (M$N) = U.S. $0. 00285 1 billion pesos = U.S. $2, 850, 000 TABLE OF COTENTS Page Number Basic Data Summary & Conclusions i I. Economic Policy and Performance, 1967-68 1 Performance in 1967 1 - The 1968 Program 3 II. The 1968 Public Investment Program 9 III. Development Problems and Prospects in the Major Sectors 12 Agriculture 12 Industry 23 Transport 29 Electric Power 37 Petroleum 40 Telephones 43 IV. Outlook for Public Investment and Finance 45 Investment Needs and Savings Requirements 45 Tax Structure and Adninistration 47 The Rationalization Program 51 Public Sector Borrowing 53 V. Development Prospects and the Balance of Payments Outlook 55 Growth Potential 55 Balance of Payments and Credit- worthiness 56 Statistical Appendix This report is based on the findings of a mission to Argentina in January-- February 1968 composed of Messrs. E. P. Wright (Chief), R. S. Dosik, J. de Weille, and Nathan Koenig (Consultant). BASIC DATA 2 Area: 2.8 million km (1.1 million sq. miles) FPkulation (1967): 23,248,000 Growth Rate (1950/51-1965/66) 1.8 percent Gross Domestic Product (1966): M$N 5,231.2 million Real GrowTth Rate (1950/51-1965/66) 3.0 percent Per Cepita GDP $750 Origins of Gross Domestic Product (1967): Percent of GDP Industry 31% Agriculture 16% Commerce 15% Transport and Communication 6% Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product (1967): Percent of GDP Gross Fixed Investment 18.6% Private Consumption 67.5% Public Consumption 11.9% Current Account Balance 2.0% Cost of Living: Annual Average Percent Change 1964 21 1965 28.6% 1966 31.9% 1967 29.2 1968 (Jan.- Iiiy, seasonally adj.) 3.lv Mbney Supply: M$N, End of Period Percent Change L964 395 39.6% 1965 498 26.1% 1966 672 34.9% 1967 872 30.0% 1968 (March) 886 2.0% National Public Sector Finances: Percent of GDP 1966 1967 National Government Current Revenue 10.2 13.8 Current Expenditure 10.0 10.3 Total Public Revenue (incl. social security) 16.2 20.1 Public Saving - 0.5 3.7 Public Investment 4.0 4.8 Belance of Payments ($million): 1965 1966 1967 Exports 1,493 1,593 1,465 Imports -1,198 -1,124 -1,096 Trade Balance 295 h69 369 Invisibles -111 -216 .189 Current Account Balance 184 253 180 Foreign Exchange Reserves ($ million): December A ril 1966 1967 1968 Assets, Central Bank 231 759 746 Net Position, Incl. Treasury Liabilities -154 279 293 Public Foreign Debt (June 30, 1967): $ million Outstanding, as reported by IBRD (excluding undisbursed) 1,851.9 Debt Service Ratio 27% } \ 4/0 N < 6 Du < -_o ' / ~~~~~ odrejo-es ,4 / JUJU Y Eebo,c. / A~ ~~ P,~chwol - i MA 0~~~~~~~~ io EL ----- - - -- X~~~~~~- CAAHUN1ICsO; C d SLOn *AIUNCI N fl MENDOZA% L. R - SA TIAGO 3 V ree°stcot t\rsWcw egriro SANTIA ~~~~~~~~~tIS Cuo,t TIGO CH Ro.e scedes~ Mel Ge5.em . BU NO --.. ~~~~~~~~~~~so"o o es / MND- OZN Son q~ ARGENTIN/ Je ASq reA ~~~~~~SA JUAN ~~SMoCORDOB t A I R E S od,o Ro-~~~~~~~~~~'o ~~OLn~~~orrdeC~~~yO\ Son ORDOBA ~ ~ ~ T1d, \~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~'TDPlz l ..R1 NGO-GofRebel \… ~~~~~~orge~I A ~ ~ ~~N-,or,sMercedeelsLAT Lup~~~~~~~~k\ dev Cuy 0/c\os Grnd0X , NNe NTEVI JUNE~ rk)XE)3~~~~~~~~L ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~~~Ctr,OCI 196 IBR 332RZIET RIOeN0 10 0 II 0 006EK Son .oron S AARGENTINAAN CA RUZ Bh JUNE 1968 IBRD 332R2 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1. At the end of last year it was clear that the Goverment had been singularly successful in carrying out the far-reaching fiscal, monetary, incomes and foreign exchange policies which formed the core of its 1967 stabilization program. The rehabilitation of public finances through the sharp reduction of the budgetary deficit and the achievement of an even greater than planned increase in public savings was perhaps the most impressive of the year's accomplishments. The Treasury was able to keep borrowing from the Central Bank well below the ceiling fixed in the monetary program agreed with the IMF, and under the Government's incomes policy wages were effectively frozen following a round of increases granted early in the year. The danger that stabilization might seriously aggravate the business recession which had begun in 1966 was averted, and GDP last year rose by some 2 percent, mainly reflecting advances in agri- cultural production and a rapid expansion of construction activity. How- ever, with consumer demand far from buoyant and businesses liquidating inventories, industrial production showed no improvement over the 1966 level, and unemployment rose moderately. The cost of living increased over the year by 27 percent, or only a bit less than in 1966, but price trends in the later months indicated that the cost increases stemming from the devaluation, the increases in public services tariffs and the wage adjustment, had been largely absorbed. Despite a drop in exports, gross foreign exchange reserves increased by more than $500 million last year to about $750 million as a result of a massive inflow of foreign exchange reflecting the repatriation of Argentine funds held abroad and an inflow of foreign short-term funds following the devaluation. 2. The program the Government has laid out for 1968 reflects a continuation of the major lines of policy pursued last year, but with a distinct shift in emphasis toward growth objectives which gives this year's program a new dimension. The strategy adopted stems from certain key assumptions: (a) that the decisive battle in the war against in- flation was won in 1967, making price stability attainable this year; (b) that with wage and other costs stable, excess capacity in industry and ample foreign exchange reserves, demand can be stimulated to promote growth without generating inflationary pressures and (c) that with the private sector still maintaining a "wait and see" attitude, the increase in investment needed for sustained growth would have to be initiated by the public sector. The growth target for 1968 is a 5 percent rise in real GDP based on projected output increases in the major sectors which, except for agriculture, would be sharp improvements over last year's performance. 3. The 1968 public investment program calls for an increase of about 30 percent in real terms, with the bulk of the added expenditure to be in the transport and energy sectors, although investments in communications and water and sewerage works are also to be boosted - ii - sharply. Fiscal policy aims at increasing public savings by 45 percent in real terms and, at the target level, public savings would cover 85 percent of planned investments compared with 80 percent in 1967. The budget freezes current expenditures throughout the public sector at the 1967 level; increased yields from existing taxes are expected to be the major factor on the revenue side, the principal new measure taken having been a sharp increase in gasoline prices and taxes. Large-scale borrowing from private sources at home and abroad, building on the initiatives taken in 1967 to revive the domestic capital market and to reopen foreign markets to Argentine public securities, is another major element in the Government's fiscal program. As regards incomes policy, the wage freeze was maintained, but employee social security contributions were reduced by 6 percent on January 1, thus augmenting workers' incomes without increasing business costs. h. In deciding to focus its 1968 program on economic expansion and an increase in public investment, the Government was accepting the risk that this might prejudice the stabilization effort, and the course being followed clearly puts a high premium on the careful management of fiscal and monetary policy. Whether the budget deficit can be held to the planned level will depend not only on the success of the Government's economy efforts, but on its ability to keep the revenue system performing at last year's high level, something which appears very much open to question given the past ups and downs in tax collections and the defi- ciencies in tax administration. The trend of prices over th-e next several months will be crucial to the success of the progran. Aetna1 pdice movements through IMay were encauraging, and if the prospects for a marked reduction in the rate of inflation this year are borne out, it should be possible to carry out the 1968 program with relatively minor adjust- ments. If not, it will be necessary to tighten up the program substan- tially, especially on the fiscal side. Balance of payments prospects appear less favorable than in recent years owing to the rather un- promising export outlook, but it should be possible to maintain foreign exchange reserves at the high level reached last year. 5. Argentina has a quite exceptionally favorable resource endowment in relation to its population, and there is no reason why the country should not in time succeed in caning close to European levels of economic efficiency and therefore greatly increase its present national output. The basic preconditions for achieving this are a sufficient degree of political stability to avoid the continual changes in government admini- stration and policies which have been one of the most serious obstacles to effective economic management during the past two decades; and a sufficient degree of internal financial stability to enable the price mechanism to function efficiently.
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