DOCSLIB.ORG

Elimination of Covid-19: a Practical Roadmap by Segmentation

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Elimination of Covid-19: a Practical Roadmap by Segmentation LETTERS BMJ: first published as 10.1136/bmj.n349 on 8 February 2021. Downloaded from 1 Division of Infectious Diseases, Kobe ELIMINATION OF COVID-19 University Hospital, Kusunokicho 7-5-2, Chuoku, Kobe, Hyogo 650-0017, Japan Elimination of covid-19: a practical roadmap by segmentation 2 Dunedin Hospital, Dunedin, New Kentaro Iwata, 1 Yuki Aoyagi2 Zealand [email protected] “When you settle on a problem, devote the resources to it, and have at least some ability to incorporate new Cite this as: BMJ 2021;372:n349 information, every time, it gets better. I don’t have any experience, anywhere, where you just apply yourself, http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n349 along with others, and then do not see progress.” Published: 08 February 2021 Paul Farmer referring to his logical optimism.1 We agree with Baker and colleagues that eliminating covid-19 should be the goal.2 The “hammer and dance suppression strategy”3 did not suppress the epidemic enough to give an opportunity to “dance.” Rather, the dance period induced an even larger resurgence of the epidemic in a given region, ending up with fatigue and complacency among citizens and making infection prevention even more difficult. Japan was once called a “success case” among high income nations, with stringent contact tracing of clusters, but it also failed to suppress the epidemic after months of a suppression strategy, which led to the reluctance of people to follow the recommendation. The harsh reality is that no countries followed the same steps after the successes of elimination in New Zealand, Australia, China, and Taiwan. The elimination strategy is scientifically sound but is likely to be dismissed by many in the real world. We propose an additional strategy to the measures cited by Baker and colleagues—a segmentation strategy. Eliminating SARS-CoV-2 is harder when we want to achieve it in large, densely populated areas, so it should be implemented in a smaller area first and then scaled up. By gradually increasing (and expanding) the covid-free areas, people are more likely to follow the same steps. We should learn from successes, not failures. Historically, many elimination strategies were laughed at with cynicism. But we should consider these obstacles as hurdles to overcome, not reasons to give up. We need to be logically optimistic to progress, in the tragedy of the current pandemic. http://www.bmj.com/ Competing interests: None declared. Full response at: https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4907/rr-8. 1 Ducharme J. Even the pandemic hasn’t made public-health icon Paul Farmer lose hope. Time 2020 Dec 3. https://time.com/5917382/paul-farmer-public-health- pandemic/ 2 Baker MG, Wilson N, Blakely T. Elimination could be the optimal response strategy for covid-19 and other emerging pandemic diseases. BMJ on 29 September 2021 by guest. Protected copyright. 2020;371:m4907doi: 10.1136/bmj.m4907. 3 Jung F, Krieger V, Hufert FT, Küpper J-H. How we should respond to the Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 outbreak: A German perspective. Clin Hemorheol Microcirc 2020;74:363-72. doi: 10.3233/CH-209004 pmid: 32390611 This article is made freely available for use in accordance with BMJ's website terms and conditions for the duration of the covid-19 pandemic or until otherwise determined by BMJ. You may use, download and print the article for any lawful, non-commercial purpose (including text and data mining) provided that all copyright notices and trade marks are retained. the bmj | BMJ 2021;372:n349 | doi: 10.1136/bmj.n349 1.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • COVID-19 PANDEMIC in the INDO-PACIFIC How the Countries Are Dealing Amidst Changing Geopolitics
    M. Mayilvaganan Editor COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE INDO-PACIFIC How The Countries Are Dealing Amidst Changing Geopolitics Research Report NIAS/CSS/ISSSP/U/RR/15/2020 COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE INDO-PACIFIC How The Countries Are Dealing Amidst Changing Geopolitics M. Mayilvaganan Editor National Institute of Advanced Studies Bengaluru, India 2020 © National Institute of Advanced Studies, 2020 Published by National Institute of Advanced Studies Indian Institute of Science Campus Bengaluru – 560012 Tel: 22185000, Fax: 22185028 Email: [email protected] NIAS Report: NIAS/CSS/ISSSP/U/RR/15/2020 ISBN 978-93-83566-41-6 Content PREFACE.........................................................................................................1 AUSTRALIA...................................................................................................2 Ashok Sharma, Australian National University BANGLADESH..............................................................................................7 M Ashique Rahman, Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies BRUNEI...........................................................................................................15 V. Srilatha, Osmania University CAMBODIA...................................................................................................21 Uma Purushothaman, Central University of Kerala CHINA.............................................................................................................25 Rajiv Ranjan, Shanghai University INDONESIA...................................................................................................29
    [Show full text]
  • Battle Against the Bug Asia’S Ght to Contain Covid-19
    Malaysia’s political turmoil Rohingyas’ grim future Parasite’s Oscar win MCI(P) 087/05/2019 Best New Print Product and Best News Brand in Asia-Pacic, International News Media Association (INMA) Global Media Awards 2019 Battle against the bug Asia’s ght to contain Covid-19 Countries race against time to contain the spread of coronavirus infections as fears mount of further escalation, with no sign of a vaccine or cure yet WE BRING YOU SINGAPORE AND THE WORLD UP TO DATE IN THE KNOW News | Live blog | Mobile pushes Web specials | Newsletters | Microsites WhatsApp | SMS Special Features IN THE LOOP ON THE WATCH Facebook | Twitter | Instagram Videos | FB live | Live streams To subscribe to the free newsletters, go to str.sg/newsletters All newsletters connect you to stories on our straitstimes.com website. Data Digest Bats: furry friends or calamitous carriers? SUPPOSEDLY ORIGINATING IN THE HUANAN WHOLESALE On Jan 23, a team led by coronavirus specialist Shi Zheng-Li at Seafood Market in Wuhan, the deadly Covid-19 outbreak has the Wuhan Institute of Virology, reported on life science archive opened a pandora’s box around the trade of illegal wildlife and bioRxiv that the Covid-19 sequence was 96.2 per cent similar to the sale of exotic animals. a bat virus and had 79.5 per cent similarity to the coronavirus Live wolf pups, civets, hedgehogs, salamanders and crocodiles that caused severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars). were among many listed on an inventory at one of the market’s Further findings in the Chinese Medical Journal also discovered shops, said The Guardian newspaper.
    [Show full text]
  • COVID-19 Pandemic on Diamond Princess - Wikipedia 1/12
    COVID-19 pandemic on Diamond Princess - Wikipedia 1/12 COVID-19 pandemic on Diamond Princess Diamond Princess is a cruise ship registered in Britain, and owned and operated by Princess Cruises. During a cruise that began on 20 January 2020 positive cases of COVID-19 pandemic on COVID-19 linked to the COVID-19 pandemic were confirmed on the ship in February board Diamond Princess 2020. Over 700 people out of 3711 became infected (567 out of 2666 passengers and 145 out of 1045 crew), and 14 people, all of them passengers, died. At the time, the ship accounted for over half the reported cases of SARS-CoV-2 outside of mainland China.[14] Contents Diamond Princess, off Toba, Mie Timeline Prefecture, Japan, December 2019 Criticism Disease COVID-19 Survey report Virus SARS-CoV-2 strain Demographics Location Pacific Ocean Deaths First Wuhan, Hubei, China Itinerary outbreak Number of confirmed cases Index Diamond Princess Notes case References Arrival 5 February 2020 date (4 months, 2 weeks Timeline and 2 days) Confirmed 712[1] The fateful cruise of the Diamond Princess departed from the Port of Yokohama on 20 cases January 2020 for a round-trip billed as a tour of Southeast Asia during the Lunar New Recovered 653[1] [15][16] Year period, with 2,666 passengers and 1,045 crew on board. Deaths 14 [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13] An 80-year-old passenger from Hong Kong, China, had embarked in Yokohama on 20 January. He had been in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China on 10 January, then returned to Hong Kong and flew to Tokyo on 17 January to board the ship.
    [Show full text]
  • Mathematical Models for Describing and Predicting
    MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR DESCRIBING AND PREDICTING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC CRISIS Cintra, P. H. P.∗ Citeli, M. F. Fontinele, F. N. Instituto de Física Instituto de Física Instituto de Física Universidade de Brasilia Universidade de Brasilia Universidade de Brasilia Brasilia, DF, Brasil, 70910-900 Brasilia, DF, Brasil, 70910-900 Brasilia, DF, Brasil, 70910-900 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] June 5, 2020 ABSTRACT The present article studies the extension of two deterministic models for describing the novel coronavirus pandemic crisis, the SIR model and the SEIR model. The models were studied and compared to real data in order to support the validity of each description and extract important information regarding the pandemic, such as the basic reproductive number R0, which might provide useful information concerning the rate of increase of the pandemic predicted by each model. We next proceed to making predictions and comparing more complex models derived from the SEIR model with the SIRD model, in order to find the most suitable one for describing and predicting the pandemic crisis. Aiming to answer the question if the simple SIRD model is able to make reliable predictions and deliver suitable information compared to more complex models. Keywords COVID-19 · coronavirus · SEIR model · SIR model · epidemic model 1 Introduction Back on 2015, a group of researches described the potential for a SARS coronavirus circulating inside bats to mutate to humans [1]. Early on 2020 the world suffers from an new pandemic crisis caused by the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV- 2, belonging to the Betacoronavirus genus and with probable origin on bats [2].
    [Show full text]
  • Learning to Live Alongside Covid-19 | Institute for Global Change
    Learning to Live Alongside Covid-19 BENEDICT MACON-COONEY RYAN WAIN DANIEL SLEAT RUTI WINTERSTEIN KASRA AARABI Contents Overview 3 The Threat of Outbreaks as Lockdown Eases: Evidence from Around the World 4 Public Fear About The Virus Is High and Enduring 14 What We Know About Covid-19 Health Outcomes and Why It Matters 17 What We Know About Transmission and Why It Matters 25 What We Don’t Yet Know About Covid-19 and Why It Matters 29 Managing Individual Risk Requires a Collective Effort 33 Building Deeper Understanding of the Virus Through Comprehensive Data Capture and Sharing 38 Towards an Individual Risk Score 41 The Gamechangers: Not Ready. Yet. 42 Conclusion & Recommendations 45 Published at https://institute.global/policy/learning-live-alongside- covid-19 on July 23 2020 Overview Our economy is beginning to restart after the necessary lockdown that slowed the spread of Covid-19. Case numbers have fallen, and the R rate has hovered below one. These are important factors and demonstrate that the conditions are in place for lockdown to ease. However, easing presents new challenges, and the threat posed by Covid-19 is very much alive. There are now three significant O O VERVIEW challenges to overcome if citizens are to become fully active again – economically and socially – and if VERVIEW the country is to avoid implementing damaging future largescale lockdowns. These challenges are: • New outbreaks across the UK • Fear of the virus leading to public inertia • A second wave resulting in a further lockdown Each challenge emanates from the same source: a lack of information and understanding on the health impacts of Covid-19 and how, where and between whom Covid-19 is transmitted.
    [Show full text]
  • Part II the Japanese Government's Response to COVID-19 Chapter 1
    The Independent Investigation Commission on the Japanese Government’s Response to COVID-19: Report on Best Practices and Lessons Learned Part II The Japanese government's response to COVID-19 Chapter 1 The Diamond Princess On the night of February 4, the Japanese government was informed of the results of PCR tests, which surprised and upset many officials, that “10 out of 31 people whose test results are known were positive.” From this point, the government's response to the unprecedented crisis of COVID-19 infections on the British cruise ship Diamond Princess, which carried 3,711 passengers and crew, was to begin in earnest. In response to this crisis, the government transported passengers and crewmembers who tested positive to hospitals in Japan. In contrast, on the grounds that quarantine had not been completed, asymptomatic passengers and crew members were considered necessary that during the observation period they did not land in Japan but stayed on board, and instead provided necessary support from outside. About a month later, on March 1, all passengers and crewmembers of the Diamond Princess were disembarked or returned to their home countries. However, during this period, 696 passengers and crew members were confirmed to be infected with the novel coronavirus. This chapter will clarify how the Japanese government responded to the crisis and what kind of crisis communication it conducted during this period. 1. Assessment process leading to port entry and quarantine 1.1. February 2: Infection of a passenger who had disembarked
    [Show full text]
  • Lockdowns and the Science of COVID June 24, 2021
    Lockdowns and the Science of COVID June 24, 2021 Jay Bhattacharya, MD, PhD Stanford University Table of Contents A. Does Covid-19 pose a real or imminent serious threat to the health of the population? ........... 2 B. What Does the Scientific Evidence Indicate Regarding the Possibility that a Person with No COVID-19 symptoms, but Infected With SARS-CoV-2, Can Spread the Virus to Others? .......... 7 C. What principles of good health policy and public health practice do lockdown policies violate? .......................................................................................................................................... 10 D. Are lockdown measures necessary to maintain and enhance the health and well-being of the general population? ....................................................................................................................... 12 E. Are governmental actions aiming to slow down the propagation of the disease harmful to the health of the population? ............................................................................................................... 18 F. Do the Emergence of Variant Strains of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus Justify Continuing Lockdowns? .................................................................................................................................. 21 G. Are the harms of the lockdowns equitably distributed? ........................................................... 26 H. Do Children Pose A High Risk of Disease Spread? ...............................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Supplemental Table 7
    Supplemental Table 7 Geography (Primary organization) Source Eran Bendavid, Bianca Mulaney, Neeraj Sood, et al. (20/04/17). Santa Clara Valley, California, United States COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California. (Stanford University School of Medicine) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2 Craig Thompson, Nicholas Grayson, Robert Patonet, et al. (20/04/17). Scotland Neutralising antibodies to SARS coronavirus 2 in Scottish blood donors - a pilot study of the value of serology to determine population exposure. (University of Oxford) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20060467v1 Oise, France Arnaud Fontanet, Laura Tondeur, Yoann Madec, et al. (20/04/23). (Institut Pasteur; Sorbonne Université; Université Cluster of COVID-19 in northern France: A retrospective closed cohort study. de Paris) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.18.20071134v1 Paris, Oise, France Ludivine Grzelak, Sarah Temmam, Cyril Planchais, et al. (20/04/24). (Institut Pasteur; Bichat-Claude Bernard SARS-CoV-2 serological analysis of COVID-19 hospitalized patients, pauci-symptomatic individuals and blood donors. University Hospital) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.21.20068858v1 Christian Erikstrup, Christoffer Egeberg Hother, Ole Birger Vestager Pedersen, et al. (20/04/28). Denmark Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rate by real-time antibody screening of blood donors. (Aarhus University) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075291v1 Otago Daily Times (20/04/24). New York, United States More than 20% of New Yorkers have had Covid-19 - Governor. (New York State Department of Health) https://www.odt.co.nz/news/world/more-20-new-yorkers-have-had-covid-19-governor Goodman JD, Rothfeld M (NYT) (20/04/23).
    [Show full text]
  • Since January 2020 Elsevier Has Created a COVID-19 Resource Centre with Free Information in English and Mandarin on the Novel Coronavirus COVID- 19
    Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID- 19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. Journal Pre-proof Increase of blood culture contamination during COVID-19 pandemic. A retrospective descriptive study Risa Ohki BCPS , Yumiko Fukui BCPS , Naomi Morishita CNIC , Kentaro Iwata MD, PhD PII: S0196-6553(21)00559-9 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajic.2021.08.025 Reference: YMIC 5978 To appear in: AJIC: American Journal of Infection Control Please cite this article as: Risa Ohki BCPS , Yumiko Fukui BCPS , Naomi Morishita CNIC , Kentaro Iwata MD, PhD , Increase of blood culture contamination during COVID-19 pandemic. A retrospective descriptive study, AJIC: American Journal of Infection Control (2021), doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajic.2021.08.025 This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record.
    [Show full text]
  • COVID-19 International Research Update
    COVID-19 International Research Update Compiled by: Assam Rural Infrastructure and Agricultural Services (ARIAS) Society ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::Team::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: 1. LayaMadduri, IAS, State Project Director, ARIAS Society 2. ParijatChowdhury, Sr. ICT & Infra Specialist, ACCSDP 3. NibhaKumari, Agri Marketing Specialist, ASAMB-APART 4. Baljeet Singh, Market Analyst & Operations Specialist, APART March-April-May-June-July-Aug 2020 Page 1 of 157 Table of contents Sl Title Pg 1 WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 05 2 UC Davis launches two clinical studies to treat COVID-19 05 3 USFDA update on COVID-19 06 4 Coronavirus: The woman behind India's first testing kit 06 5 Russian scientists take the first photo of a novel coronavirus and fully decode its genome 06 6 Russia plans to start series production of new vaccine against coronavirus in 1.5 years 06 7 Australian researchers to trial BCG vaccine for COVID-19 07 8 University of Birmingham joins COVID-19 genome sequencing alliance to map spread of coronavirus 08 9 University Of Glasgow Leads Covid-19 Research Response In Scotland 09 10 Germany : DZIF Coronavirus Researchers use “Fast Track” 10 11 WHO says early data show some drugs ‘may have an impact’ on coronavirus, but more research is needed 12 12 USA: Study will test if hydroxychloroquine can prevent COVID-19 12 13 USA: Florida Research Company Prepares for COVID-19 Vaccine, Treatment Clinical Trials 12 14 Europe : Severe COVID-19 cases to be offered new clinical trial
    [Show full text]
  • Seroprevalence of Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Kobe, Japan
    medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.26.20079822; this version posted May 5, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. Title: Seroprevalence of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Kobe, Japan Authors: Asako Doi MD,1,2,3* Kentaro Iwata MD, PhD,3 Hirokazu Kuroda MD,1,2 Toshikazu Hasuike MD,1, 2 Seiko Nasu MT,1,4 Aya Kanda MT,4 Tomomi Nagao MT,4 Hiroaki Nishioka MD, PhD,2 Keisuke Tomii MD, PhD,5 Takeshi Morimoto MD, PhD, 6 and Yasuki Kihara 7 Author Affiliations: 1 Department of Infection Control, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuoku 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan. 2 Department of Infectious Diseases, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuoku 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan. 3 Division of Infectious Diseases Therapeutics, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Chuoku 6500017, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan. 4 Department of Laboratory Medicine, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuoku 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan. 5 Department of Respiratory Medicine, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuoku 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan. 6 Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Hyogo Medical College, Mukogawa 6638501, Nishinomiya, Hyogo, Japan. 7 Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuoku 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan. *corresponding author Corresponding author: Asako Doi, MD. Department of Infectious Diseases, Kobe City Medical Center General Hospital, Chuoku 6500047, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan. Phone:81-78-302-4321 Fax:81-78-382-6297 Email: [email protected] NOTE: This preprint reports new research that has not been certified by peer review and should not be used to guide clinical practice.
    [Show full text]
  • Infectious Diseases at Sea – Crew Members and Passengers of Ships in the Face of Pandemic Covid-19
    ROCZNIK BEZPIECZEŃSTWA MORSKIEGO ROK XIV – 2020 Bogdan Michailiuk Akademia Sztuki Wojennej INFECTIOUS DISEASES AT SEA – CREW MEMBERS AND PASSENGERS OF SHIPS IN THE FACE OF PANDEMIC COVID-19 SUMMARY The fear of an invisible enemy, as bacteria and viruses often disrupt or take away health, has accompanied humanity for thousands of years. The article presents cases of illness caused by biological factor among passengers and crew members on board ships. Incidents that have occurred in the past have been mentioned. The Author's leading considerations focused on the current situation (Pandemic COVID- 19) of biological hazard on vessels. Keywords: coronavirus, infectious disease, pandemic, ship, crew, passengers INTRODUCTION In 2002, a British government report stated that "at the beginning of the 21st century, infectious diseases remain a serious global threat to human health, prosperity, social stability and security." 327 Concerns were raised by the fact that 41% of all diseases in the world were infectious diseases, which claimed millions of lives 328 . If we look back, we will see a simple truth: all wars in human history have not taken as many victims as infectious diseases have consumed. At the moment, we are in an unusual, very undesirable situation, because each of us 327 The Royal Society Inquiry, Infectious Diseases in Livestock. Summary and main recommendations , Reported, London 2002, dostęp internetowy: www.royalsoc.ac.uk/policy (access: 21.11.2019). 328 Ibidem. 251 Bogdan Michailiuk fears infection with a new coronavirus 329 . On 11.03.2020, the WHO announced the COVID-2019 pandemic 330 . The author will limit his considerations to analyzing the situation where carriers of viral infection appear on the vessel.
    [Show full text]