Redistricting
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merica is an outlier in the quarter century the average number of ing, the possibilities of bipartisan ne- world of democracies when marginal House seats, i.e., those de- gotiation and compromise diminish. it comes to the structure cided within the range of 55 to 45 per- Many observers and participants be- A and conduct of elections. cent, has been a historically low 58 lieve redistricting fuels this polariza- Presidents are elected not by direct (13 percent of all seats), the number tion, by creating safe seats in which popular vote but by 538 members of plummeted after the most recent incumbents have strong incentives to the Electoral College. Votes in federal round of redistricting, reaching 27—6 reflect the views of their party’s most elections are cast and counted in a percent of seats—in 2004. Only four extreme supporters—i.e., those active highly decentralized and variable House incumbents were defeated by in primary elections—and little rea- fashion, with no uniform ballots and challengers in the 2002 general elec- son to reach out to swing voters. few national standards. Responsibil- tion, the smallest number in American ity for overseeing the implementation history. Two years later only seven in- Role of National Party Leaders of election law typically resides with cumbents were defeated. Less than 50 A third development behind the surge partisan officials, many with public of the 435 seats were seriously con- of interest in redistricting reform is stakes in the election outcome. And tested in 2002, many fewer than the the more aggressive actions by na- authority for redrawing legislative number of targets in 1972, 1982 and tional party leaders to orchestrate par- district boundaries after each decen- 1992, the first elections after the previ- tisan gerrymanders in the states. With nial census—in the U.S. House of ous rounds of redistricting. The num- the parties at virtual parity and the Representatives and in state legisla- ber of House seats with a real contest ideological gulf between them never tures—is lodged with political bodies shrank to three dozen in 2004. greater, the stakes of majority control in most of the fifty states. The same pattern is evident in state of Congress are extremely high. The latter has long been a prominent legislative races. A prime illustration Norms that once constrained the be- and much-criticized feature of Ameri- of this phenomenon is to be found in havior of party leaders have collapsed. can politics. Redistricting is a deeply the largest state, California, where House Majority Leader Tom DeLay’s political process, with incumbents ac- every incumbent seeking reelection infamous but successful mid-decade tively seeking to minimize the risk to won and not a single seat changed partisan gerrymander in Texas (which themselves (via bipartisan gerryman- party hands in the 2004 congres- cost the Democrats six seats, twice the ders) or to gain additional seats for their sional and state legislative elections. national gain realized by the Republi- party (via partisan gerrymanders). But several recent developments have lent a Ideological Polarization new urgency to this issue and precipi- In addition to the decline in competi- tated the most serious effort to reform tion, American politics today is char- redistricting processes in many years. acterized by a growing ideological po- larization between the two major Decline in Competitive Seats political parties. A healthy degree of One recent development is the sharp party unity among Democrats and Re- decline in the number of competitive publicans has deteriorated into bitter seats in the House and in most state partisan warfare. With the number of legislatures. While during the last moderates in legislative bodies declin- REDISTRICTING By Thomas E. Mann reform Illustration by Diane Fenster 4 THE NATIONAL VOTER • JUNE 2005 cans in 2004) has set off a potential re- continue to shape our politics no mat- justiciable under the Equal Protection districting arms race. While the Col- ter what initiatives are taken to im- Clause. However, by setting a high orado Republican effort to adopt a sec- prove the process. Redistricting reform threshold for successful challengers ond post-2000 redistricting plan was is no panacea, but it is a start. (“evidence of continued frustration of nixed by the state Supreme Court, the Most states redraw congressional the will of a majority of the voters or ef- party seems to have succeeded in district boundaries through the nor- fective denial to a minority of voters of Georgia, if newly drawn maps are pre- mal legislative process, constrained a fair chance to influence the political cleared by the Justice Department and by standards set by Congress, the process”), the Court rendered this upheld by the courts. Democrats are courts, and state constitutions and standard ineffectual. Only one success- considering retaliatory actions in a statutes. Congress requires states to ful partisan gerrymandering claim—in number of states newly under their po- draw single-member districts. The a judicial election—has been litigated litical control, including New Mexico, courts insist that all districts within under the Bandemer ruling. Illinois and Louisiana. states be of equal population and that Last year the Court returned to this minority votes not be diluted. Most question by considering a case brought Redistricting Reform states have put redistricting standards by Pennsylvania Democrats. Its deci- Redistricting reform cannot by itself re- in their constitutions or statutes: con- sion in Vieth v. Jubelirer (2004) ap- verse these trends toward declining tiguity, compactness, adherence to pears to have maintained the status electoral competition, increasing ideo- political and geographical boundaries, quo. While all nine justices acknowl- logical polarization between the parties, and respect for communities of inter- edged that partisan gerrymandering and smash-mouth partisan manipula- est are the most common. However, could be unconstitutional, in rejecting tion of the electoral rules of the game. these state standards suffer from am- the challenge the majority despaired of The country is evenly divided be- biguity, conflict with other standards, finding workable standards for deter- tween the two parties. Most voters have and the absence of effective enforce- mining when it was. Litigation chal- sorted themselves into a party by their ment mechanisms. They have not lenging the Texas mid-decade redis- ideological views, and their decisions been a serious constraint on the tricting plan continues, but the federal on where to reside have promoted a ge- politicians drawing the maps. courts do not appear a promising ographical segregation of like-minded venue for reform. Prospects for coun- citizens—conservatives to the exurbs, Three Options for Reform tering anti-competitive bipartisan liberals to cities. Further- Those seeking to reduce the partisan plans are even bleaker. In past deci- more, partisan attach- and incumbent manipulation of the sions, the Court has explicitly sanc- ments powerfully shape redistricting process have three tioned the protection of incumbency political perceptions, broad options. as a legitimate redistricting objective. beliefs and values, and The first is to persuade Congress to The third and clearly most promis- incumbents enjoy ad- adopt additional standards for redis- ing avenue of reform is to change the vantages well beyond tricting by the states. The most promi- process by which states draw legisla- the way in which nent proposal would prohibit more than tive maps. Often facing entrenched op- their districts are a single round of congressional redis- position in state legislatures, reformers configured. All of tricting after the decennial apportion- are increasingly turning to the initia- these forces will ment. As long as Rep. Tom Delay, the tive process to establish independent, chief architect of the Texas redistricting nonpartisan redistricting commissions. plan, remains majority leader, this idea Six states—Arizona, Hawaii, Idaho, is likely to go nowhere. The interesting Montana, New Jersey and Washing- question is how a Democratic majority ton—already invest commissions with in Congress might react to it. a first and final authority for congres- A second option for reformers is to sional redistricting. Another, Indiana, convince the courts to find gerryman- uses a commission as a backup if the dered plans unconstitutional. In Davis normal legislative process fails to pro- v. Bademer (1986) the Supreme Court duce a plan. Two other states, Maine ruled that partisan gerrymandering is and Connecticut, use commissions in THE NATIONAL VOTER • JUNE 2005 5 an advisory capacity: their plans must Model for Reform draft and qualify initiatives for state be approved by the legislature before Arizona has become a prototype for ballots. The League of Women Voters taking effect. One state, Iowa, delegates current reformers. The state’s indepen- at the state level has been active, too authority for drafting redistricting dent redistricting commission was es- (see p. 7). Twenty-four states allow plans to a nonpartisan legislative sup- tablished by popular initiative in 2000. citizen initiatives on their ballots, and port staff agency, which operates under Four members (two from each party) efforts are underway in Colorado, a “veil of ignorance” with respect to the are appointed by state legislative lead- Florida, Massachusetts and Ohio to addresses of incumbents, partisan affili- ers from a pool