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Rallentamento Dell'economia E Debolezza Della Politica in Asia

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Rallentamento Dell'economia E Debolezza Della Politica in Asia Asia Maior Osservatorio italiano sull’Asia 2012 Rallentamento dell’economia e debolezza della politica in Asia a cura di Michelguglielmo Torri e Nicola Mocci I LIBRI DI EMIL La continuazione delle attività di «ASIA MAIOR» è stata resa possibile dal supporto logistico del Centro Studi Vietnamiti di Torino, da quello finanziario del Lions Club Saluzzo-Savigliano e dalla Fondazione Solidarietà e Diritti «Luca Raggio» di Cagliari. I ringraziamenti dell’associazione vanno tutte e tre le istituzioni e, in particolare, alla direttrice del Centro Studi Vietnamiti, Sandra Scagliotti, al presidente del Lions Club Saluzzo- Savigliano, Pino Carità, e al presidente della Fondazione Solidarietà e Diritti «Luca Raggio», Gianluca Scroccu. Asia Maior è anche su internet: www.asiamaior.it; www.asiamaior.org e dal suo archivio possono essere scaricati liberamente i volumi di Asia Maior. I saggi che compongono i volumi di Asia Maior riflettono l’opinione dei singoli autori. Com’è storicamente tradizione di Asia Maior, tali opinioni sono espresse con la massima libertà e, di conseguenza, non riflettono in alcun modo né una linea politica predefinita da Asia Maior, né, ovviamente, l’opinione di altri enti (ministeri, fondazioni, dipartimenti universitari, associazioni, ONG, ecc.), qualsiasi essi siano. Questa linea politico-culturale è la necessaria e logica conseguenza dell’esempio e degli insegnamenti del fondatore di Asia Maior: Giorgio Borsa (1912-2002). Coloro che apprezzano questo volume possono contribuire a rendere possibile, se lo ritengono opportuno, la continuazione dell’attività di Asia Maior e la pubblicazione dei futuri volumi annuali attraverso il 5x1000. È sufficiente, al momento della compilazione della dichiarazione dei redditi (CUD, Mod. 739, Mod. 749, Mod. I Mod. UNICO), apporre la propria firma nel riquadro dedicato “al sostegno del volontariato delle organizzazioni non lucrative di utilità sociali, delle associazioni e fondazioni”, indicando come beneficiaria l’associazione «Asia Maior» e, nello spazio sottostante la firma, indicando il Codice Fiscale 97439200581. Grazie. Con il contributo di © 2013 Casa Editrice Emil di Odoya srl Tutti i diritti riservati ISBN: 97-88-86680-063-7 I libri di Emil Via Benedetto Marcello 7 – 40141 - Bologna www.odoya.it «ASI A MA IOR » «ASI A MA IOR » è un osservatorio sull’Asia ideato nel 1989 da Giorgio Borsa e da allora attivo come associazione informale. Nell’ottobre 2006, «Asia Maior» si è costituita come associazione senza scopo di lucro. La sua attuale sede è a Torino, via Campana 24. Il direttivo di «Asia Maior» Marzia Casolari (presidente), Enrica Garzilli, Nicola Mocci (vice presidente), Riccardo Redaelli, Michelguglielmo Torri (responsabile scientifico). Il Comitato scientifico di «Asia Maior» Guido Abbattista (Università di Trieste), Domenico Amirante (Università «Federico II», Napoli), Elisabetta Basile (Università «La Sapienza», Roma), Luigi Bonanate (Università di Torino), Claudio Cecchi (Università «La Sapienza», Roma), Alessandro Colombo (Università di Milano), Anton Giulio Maria de Robertis (Università di Bari) Thierry Di Costanzo (Université de Strasbourg), Max Guderzo (Università di Firenze), Giorgio Milanetti, (Università «La Sapienza», Roma), Franco Mazzei (Università «L’Orientale», Napoli), Paolo Puddinu (Università di Sassari), Adriano Rossi (Università «L’Orientale», Napoli), Filippo Sabetti (McGill University, Montréal), Giuseppe Sacco (Università degli Studi Roma Tre), Guido Samarani (Università «Ca’ Foscari», Venezia), Gianni Vaggi (Università di Pavia), Alberto Ventura (Università della Calabria). A Viola Zoe INDICE 13 PRE M ESS A . LA DEBO L EZZ A DE ll E L E A DERSHI P P O L ITICHE NE ll ’ASI A NEO L IBERIST A di Nicola Mocci 1. Premessa p. 13; 2. Il quadrante orientale p. 19; 3. Il quadrante meridionale p. 23; 4. Il quadrante occidentale e il ritorno in forze della Russia p. 25; 5. Obama «l’asiatico» riconfermato alla Casa Bianca p. 27; 6. La vittoria del neoliberismo in Asia e le sue conseguenze p. 29; 7. Il ritorno dei temi nazionalisti p. 31; 8. Conclusioni p. 33. 35 IR A N : S A NZIONI E CRISI FIN A NZI A RI A NE ll ’INERZI A DE L REGI M E di Riccardo Redaelli 1. Introduzione p. 35; 2. L’affondo economico contro il regime p. 36; 3. La nuova serie di trattative sul nucleare p. 40; 4. Il difficile quadro politico interno p. 41; 5. La guerra civile in Siria e le difficoltà regionali iraniane p. 44; 6. Il crollo del rial e l’esplosione della crisi finanziaria p. 47; 7. Il punto sul programma nucleare iraniano p. 48; 8. La corsa verso le elezioni presidenziali p. 53. 57 STR A TEGI A ENERGETIC A M U L TIVETTORI al E E RIFOR M IS M O P O L ITICO IN TURK M ENIST A N di Fabio Indeo 1. Introduzione p. 57; 2. Il forziere energetico centroasiatico: il Turkmenistan al centro del «grande gioco» delle pipelines p. 58; 3. Il secondo mandato presidenziale di Berdymukhammedov: prospettive di politica interna p. 61; 4. La strategia «multivettoriale» in politica estera: tensioni regionali e la militarizzazione del Mar Caspio p. 64; 5. Conclusioni p. 67. 71 IL 2011-12: UN BIENNIO CRITICO P ER I L KA Z A KIST A N di Fabrissi Vielmini 1. Premessa p. 71; 2. Due anni d’inusitata violenza p. 72; 3. La ricomposizione del quadro politico p. 74; 4. Le elezioni del 2011 e l’ulteriore marginalizzazione dell’opposizione p. 77; 5. Il rimpasto governativo del 2012 p. 80; 6. Una società frammentata p. 81; 6.1. Il terrorismo islamista quale specchio dei problemi dello stato p. 7 81; 6.2 L’accentuazione delle fratture tribali p. 84; 6.3. L’incognita nazionalista p. 85; 7. Il gioco delle influenze esterne e l’evoluzione delle direttrici geopolitiche del Kazakistan p. 86; 7.1 Astana e l’Occidente p. 87; 7.2. Il rafforzamento del vettore russo: il rilancio dell’integrazione eurasiatica p. 88; 7.3. Il Fattore Cina p. 91; 8. Note sul quadro economico p. 92; 9. Conclusioni p. 92. 99 INSTA BI L ITÀ P O L ITIC A E N A ZION al IS M O DE ll E RISORSE IN KIRGHIZISTA N di Matteo Fumagalli 1. Introduzione p. 99; 2. L’ennesima opportunità p. 99; 2.1. Di scandalo in scandalo, verso la crisi di governo p. 101; 2.2. Déjà vu: sull’orlo del precipizio p. 101; 3. La miniera di Kumtor: tra crisi economica e nazionalismo delle risorse p. 102; 3.1. Nazionalismo delle risorse in rapida ascesa p. 103; 3.2. Politica elettorale e boom energetico in Mongolia p. 106; 4. Elezioni locali p. 108; 5. L’irrisolta questione dei rapporti inter-etnici p. 109; 6. Conclusioni p. 111. 113 AFGH A NIST A N : la «RITIR A T A STR A TEGIC A » DE ll ’OCCIDENTE E I NUOVI TENT A TIVI DI NEGOZI A TO CON I T al IB A NI di Diego Abenante 1. Premessa p. 113; 2. Il quadro politico interno p. 114; 2.1. La riorganizzazione dei partiti p. 115; 2.2 Il ritorno degli ex mujaheddin? p. 116; 3. L’apertura del negoziato in Qatar e lo stato del conflitto p. 118; 4. Il rapporto «State of the Taliban 2012» p. 121; 5. L’accordo di partnership strategica p. 123; 6. La ripresa del dialogo afgano- pachistano p. 124; 7. La situazione economica p. 125. 129 PA KIST A N : TR A NSIZIONE E NUOVI EQUI L IBRI di Marco Corsi 1. Premessa p. 129; 2. Il Memogate p. 129; 3. Il confronto del governo con l’esercito p. 131; 4. L’intraprendenza della magistratura p. 132; 4.1. Gli attacchi al governo e il nuovo premier, p. 133; 5. I rapporti con gli USA agli albori della ridefinizione del ruolo geo- strategico del Pakistan p. 135; 5.1. Il Pakistan e la NATO p. 137; 6. Economia p. 138. 141 L’INDI A E I SUOI P ROB L E M I : I L R all ENT am ENTO DE ll ’ECONO M I A , la CRISI DEI GR A NDI pa RTITI , I L RI la NCIO DE ll E P O L ITICHE NEO L IBERISTE , la CU L TUR A DE lla VIO L ENZ A CONTRO L E DONNE di Michelguglielmo Torri 1. Premessa p. 141; 2. Le prospettive dell’economia: un inizio d’anno sotto cattivi auspici p. 142; 2.1. Il bilancio 2012-13 p. 143; 2.2. Le reazioni alla presentazione della legge di bilancio p. 150; 2.3. L’aumento delle difficoltà dell’economia indiana p. 152; 3. L’evoluzione della situazione politica p. 155; 3.1. Il declino del movimento anti 8 corruzione p. 156; 3.2. Le elezioni statali del gennaio-febbraio 2012 p. 164; 4. L’elezione del presidente dell’Unione p. 170; 5. Un altro scandalo: il «Coalgate» p. 173; 6. Le «riforme economiche di seconda generazione» p. 175; 7. Le elezioni statali del novembre-dicembre 2012 p. 182; 8. L’ascesa del «politico più popolare dell’India» p. 183; 9. La violenza sulle donne p. 189; 9.1. Un delitto efferato e rivoltante p. 189; 9.2. Lo stupro del 26 dicembre come evento paradigmatico della situazione delle donne in India p. 194; 9.3. Il reato di stupro come punta dell’iceberg p. 198; 10. La politica estera p. 200; 11. Il caso Enrica Lexie e la questione dei marò p. 203. 213 NE pal , ST all O P O L ITICO E L ENTEZZE NE lla RE al IZZ A ZIONE DE L P ROCESSO DI pa CE E la RICONCI L I A ZIONE di Enrica Garzilli 1. Introduzione p. 213; 2 Integrazione degli ex combattenti maobadi p. 214; 3. Lotta alla corruzione e condanne eccezionali p. 215; 4. Il vuoto legislativo e l’«incubo legale» p.
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