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Climate change the science & the lies Tony Eggleton Outline Some basic climate stuff – what the science says About trust and lies How to misinform 1. Attack the person 2. “It stands to reason” 3. Cherry pick or brush aside 4. Use lots of wrong numbers 5. Use the wrong data 6. Be important, be wrong, and say it anyway The pillars of climate science causes causes Global warming. • What is the evidence? • Land-based thermometers Boulia, Qld Of course one Met station is not enough, but 30,000 is C) 14.8 ° 14.6 14.4 14.2 14.0 13.8 13.6 Temperature rise ( rise Temperature 13.4 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 NASA Goddard Space Institute Don’t like scientists’ measurements? • What about oenologists? Date of maturity for grapes is getting earlier every year Mar 20 Mar 1 1930 2010 The Greenhouse Warm body radiates heat away and gets cold Add a blanket, reduce heat loss Thicker blanket, more heat trapped, now a hot dog We are warmed by the sun and radiate our warmth out into space sun earth . There is a lot of cold space out there to accept our radiated heat OK, so you can see - 23° C 14° C We have an atmosphere blanket, the moon does not Sun’s heat comes in 29% is reflected back into space That is known as Earth’s albedo. Compare Venus 90%, the moon 7%. Earth warms air, air radiates heat away 1.8 ppm 0.3 ppm Greenhouse gases and their part in keeping us warm 400 ppm = 0.04% 4%± Why has the Earth warmed over the past two centuries? Because we have added a lot of CO2 Are you sure? Perhaps it is just a coincidence! And what does a bit of warming do? Melts ice, mainly in the Arctic. So what? So melted ice (=seawater) absorbs sunshine, whereas ice would have reflected it. Thus the Arctic Ocean warms. AND Humidity Warmer air can carry more water vapour – increased humidity. What is the main greenhouse gas? Water vapour. So a bit of warming by CO2 is enhanced by making a thicker greenhouse blanket of water vapour Three strikes and you’re hot Strike 1. More CO2 – a bit of warming Strike 2. Some ice melts, more sunshine absorbed – a bit more warming Strike 3. More water vapour in the air – even more warming. Snowball earth Ice ages – different trigger 1. Orbital changes expand north polar ice 2. More ice, less Arctic warming, cooler Earth 3. Cooler Earth, less humidity, more cooling 4. Cooler oceans take up more CO2 5. Thinner greenhouse blanket, more cooling 6. Glaciation – until... 7. Orbital change melts more summer ice 8. Sequence reverses to an interglacial - now The Climate Lies Despite the real simplicity of the science, there are people who don’t want you to believe it. They call themselves skeptics. Others call them Deniers You decide what to call them. When a scientist uses evidence to support an argument, and has not checked to see if that evidence is correct or appropriate, to me that is lying How do they do convince you the science is faulty? Misinformation step 1: Denigrate climate scientists as self- serving and corrupt (all 30,000 of them) • The scientists have no respect for data, science and honesty. (I. Plimer) • (The consensus about climate change) is an enormous case of organized scientific fraud... It is also a criminal act. (R Tracinski quoted by R. Carter) • The fact that the climate change establishment creates such misleading information to manipulate opinion is clear evidence that its scientific foundation doesn’t exist. (The Marshall Institute – USA) Thousands of corrupt climate scientists • Are they all corrupt? Why do the crooked Astronomy scientists all study climate? Didn’t any do medicine? Engineering? Are there no young guns eager to show up those crooked old fogeys? Not only the scientists, the temperature data is corrupt Urban heat island effect From the US Heartland Institute. (They also denied the smoking-cancer link) Surface-based temperature histories of the globe almost certainly contain a significant warming bias introduced by insufficient corrections for the non- greenhouse-gas- induced urban heat island effect. Bob Carter, reporting Joseph D’Aleo and Anthony Watts Instrumental temperature data have been so widely, systematically and unidirectionally tampered with that it cannot be credibly asserted there has been any significant global warming in the 20th century Berkeley Group Skeptical physicists and statisticians, they didn’t believe the conclusions of climate scientists and so reanalysed all the temperature data. Goddard Institute for Space Studies (USA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA), Hadley Climatic Research Unit (UK) Result Their results exactly matched the 3 previous analyses. Removing urban Met Stations from the data set made no difference at all. Berkeley Earth Group Richard Muller: “Call me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I'm now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause." July 2012 Misinformation step 2 • Simplify the science to a single issue and claim commonsense would tell it is wrong CO2 rises uniformly, temperature wriggles about, therefore CO2 cannot explain the temperature – stands to reason! But maybe there is more than one factor Global temperature depends on several things: • Ocean temperature and currents • Volcanic ash in the upper air acting as a sun- shade • Small changes in the sun – sunspot cycles • Industrial pollutants Which all contribute to the variation Recent impact of the Southern Oscillation on global temperature -251995 2000 2005 2010 2015 -20 -15 El Niño – warm Pacific Ocean surface -10 -5 0 5 SOI 10 15 20 La Niña cool ocean 25 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 -20 -10 T 0 10 20 Pacific Decadal Oscillation Volcanic dust and sunspot cycles Take the long view – 130 years 80 60 40 20 20th century average 0 -20 The ups and down are -40 natural variation -601905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 Deviation Deviation 100 average x from Goddard institute for Space Studies (NASA) And another simple example of something apparently so obvious Plimer: Would you expect warming after the Little Ice Age? His Answer “Of course” Why “of course? Shouldn’t you ask why did it get cooler in the first place, then ask why did it not stay cool, or cool more? The last 13,000 years Marcott et al (2013) in Science Step 3: cherry-pick Select a limited set of observations and pretend they represent the norm Earth stopped warming in 1998 80 70 60 C*100) ° 50 40 30 Temperaturechange ( 20 10 This is the data used to make that statement 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Looks a bit different if you expand the data set (20-year pick) 80 70 60 C*100) ° 50 40 30 20 Temperaturechange ( 10 0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 And expand a bit wider: earth is still warming (36-year pick) Global temperature anomaly - °C x 0.01 80 y = 1.62x - 3193.4 R² = 0.805 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Air temperature (land ocean) Post-script If the global temperature data are corrupt and so cannot show global warming, how can these same data show that the warming has stopped? But has the rate of warming the air eased? There has been a slowdown since about 2005 70% 0f the Sun’s heat goes into the ocean 4 every second In response to extreme temperature “Well the climate has always varied, heat waves are nothing new, some years are hot, some not, it is just natural variation” And “We’ve had heat waves before, it’s a cyclical thing” Alice Springs # “hot” days (>40°C) 1920 0 1961 4 2005 20 1921 0 1962 13 2006 26 1922 3 1963 14 2007 9 1923 8 1964 9 2008 21 1924 5 1965 6 2009 6 1925 2 1966 3 2010 7 1926 20 1967 11 2011 3 1927 7 1968 11 2012 26 1928 7 1969 12 2013 31 1929 14 1970 22 2014 17 Average 6 Average 10 Average 15 Misinformation step 4 Speak with confidence and include lots of numbers – nobody will know if they are correct Alan Jones, Q&A July 20th 80% of Australia’s energy comes from coal fired power, and it’s about 79 dollars a kilowatt hour, wind power is about 1,502 dollars a kilowatt hour, that is unaffordable Facts: Actually $79 per MEGAwatt hour for coal, OK dumb but easy to make error. Wind about $150-214 in the report supposedly quoted, but by now about $110 Jones has fully admitted the mistakes Any increase in CO2 is from natural sources This is a very popular myth, you will find it in the writings of Prof Bob Carter from JCU, Ian Plimer, Jo Nova and all the denialist web sites. A statement that is doing the rounds of e-mails and the web When the volcano Mt Pinatubo erupted in the Philippines in 1991, it spewed out more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than the entire human race had emitted in all its years on earth. Fact check Pinatubo had no discernable effect on the atmospheric CO2 Million tonnes of CO2 2,500,000 2,000,000 Increase 1,500,000 1750-2015 1,000,000 Last year’s 500,000 burning One volcanic cough 0 Atmosphere in 1750 All volcanoes since 1750 Misinformation step 5 • Use the wrong data Carter: 380 ppm CO2 is nothing new Beck E-G.

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