The Bomb in a Populist Lamp Dr. Joel Rocamora Whether or not Fernando Poe Jr. (popularly known as “FPJ” or “Da King” of Philippine Movies) wins the presidency in May, he is a harbinger of disaster. FPJ is the toughest rival of incumbent Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. His candidacy to the highest post in the country can be compared to the bomb that Jose Rizal’s character Simoun in the novel “El Filibusterismo” planted on his lamp. In the novel, the explosion is the signal awaited by the revolutionaries to start the uprising in Manila against the colonial rule of Spain. In today’s Philippine politics, FPJ is the bomb hidden in a populist lamp. If he is disqualified by the Supreme Court, on claims that he is an American and not a natural- born Filipino, his supporters will attempt to bring down the government. If he loses in May and there is even the slightest doubt about his defeat, destabilization attempts will intensify. If he wins, destabilization will follow in the wake of an economic collapse and an orgy of revenge by displaced Marcos and Erap forces. Disaster can be averted only if enough of the forces for political and economic reform, - if those who mobilized for EDSA 1 and EDSA 2 understand what is happening and mobilize to prevent an FPJ victory. FPJ has to be ‘defeated’ before the May elections. This can be done only if the political meaning of the FPJ candidacy is exposed. FPJ can be ‘defeated’ before May 2004 only if we can break the debilitating hesitations which have effectively tied our hands behind our backs. FPJ and the Populist Temptation FPJ will win if people believe he will win. More than anything else that is the campaign line of his party KNP. “Get on the bandwagon. Our candidate is a sure winner”. This is based on nothing more than the assumption that FPJ’s movie popularity is automatically translatable to votes. But there is no evidence that this is true because FPJ has never run for anything. The only way to test this before the May election is to compare him to other movie personalities, most importantly his bosom buddy – the impeached President Joseph Estrada. Because of the way Philippine movies are made, the more popular actors get to shape their roles according to how they see themselves. Reel colonizes real. Joseph Estrada becomes Erap (Filipino slang for the word friend), FPJ is the messianic ‘Da King’. Erap is the upper class man/boy who enjoys the company of kanto boys (unemployed stand-by men) who love to drink, gamble, fool around with women. When Erap and his friends see that oppression is too much, they say “Tama na, sobra na” (Stop, Enough already) and they fight. Erap fights together with his lower class friends. He becomes not just their leader. He is their intermediary, a bridge across the class divide. People equate FPJ and Erap. If Erap won elections because of his movie popularity, FPJ will also win. But FPJ’s movie persona is actually radically different from that of Erap. Erap is quintessentially ‘human’; flawed but willing to admit, even boast about his flaws. So it is easy for his fans to identify with him. The FPJ of his movies is radically different. The Aguila (Eagle), the Panday (Blacksmith) is ‘supra- human’. He is a demigod, an archetype. He appears from out of nowhere, returns just as suddenly to god knows where . When he fights, he fights alone. People watch, but from hastily closed windows. I cannot imagine Erap agreeing to becoming a ‘savior’. FPJ was reportedly persuaded to run for president by politicians because they convinced him that he is the only one who can ‘save’ the country. FPJ’s movie popularity apparently can be converted to votes if the surveys are to be believed. The question is whether the demigod FPJ image can stand the rough and tumble of campaign politics. It appears that FPJ understands this problem. That’s why he has so far chosen not to say very much. Demigods do not have platforms. They come from heaven with tablets of stone. The platform issue can probably be papered over by his advisers once they are identified. Besides people do not pay attention to platforms in elections for the simple reason that voters know platforms are almost never followed . What could be damaging are issues which show the saint/messiah has feet of clay. FPJ movies have no sex. The non-issue of FPJ’s out-of-wedlock son, and reportedly two other daughters might be more damaging than his not knowing how the peso loses its value. Indian gods had lots of it, but can demigods in our Christian tradition have sex? Whether FPJ likes it or not, his personal life and habits will be trotted out for all to see. There is no such thing as a private, shy presidential candidate. Erap was not vulnerable to this kind of attack because he would just laugh them off. If FPJ gets obviously impatient, this will work against him. FPJ, His Handlers and Machinery The FPJ camp would have us believe he is his own man. They are even circulating stories about his having chewed out campaign manager Tito Sotto (another actor turned Senator) for making public statements without clearing it with him. This is his Movement of United Filipinos (KNP) party’s response to FPJ’s gaping vulnerability: the company he keeps. The KNP’s Senate slate says it all. It is made up of recycled Marcos cronies from former Ministry of Defense Juan Ponce Enrile, to former Energy Minister Ernesto Maceda, to former Information Minister Francisco Tatad. An attempt to distance FPJ from Erap backfired when FPJ ended up getting Jinggoy Estrada on his Senate slate after all. Even Jamby Madrigal and Boots Anson Roa have Marcos and Erap in their past. Lets say it like it is. An FPJ presidency would restore the people behind both Marcos and Estrada. These are the two presidents that the Filipinos kicked out in EDSA 1 and EDSA 2. In all of our history, these two presidents are the most corrupt. Marcos still holds the record for human rights violations. There is a chance that after 18 years there will be a judicial accounting for Marcos era crimes. Erap will likely be convicted of gross corruption. All this will be reversed if FPJ becomes president. What little we have achieved in our fight against human rights violations and corruption will be wiped out in an FPJ presidency. We hesitate to use FPJ’s lack of education and experience against him. We feel that doing so would somehow betray our rural and urban poor because they too do not have the education and experience. But they are not the ones running for president. They are not the ones who will have to preside over cabinet meetings to discuss monetary policy. It is obvious that FPJ does not understand even the basics of economic and other policies he will have to deal with as president. What will happen then is that the Marcos and Erap cronies who have decades of experience manipulating the government for their own ends will run rings around FPJ. An FPJ administration will be an Enrile-Maceda administration. Even if we grant that cinema popularity is translatable to votes, machinery is needed to do the translating. The KNP (Movement of United Filipinos) is a ragtag coalition of three parties, two of them small: PDP (Party of Democratic Filipinos), and PMP (Party of the Filipino Masses), the third, the LDP (League of Democratic Filipinos), is divided between FPJ and another opposition presidential candidate Panfilo Lacson. Lacson was Armed Forces chief under Estrada. The three parties in the KNP have reportedly not quite meshed yet. Organization can be built if you have the money. But reliable reports indicate that the KNP has not yet attracted the kind of money needed for a presidential campaign. Part of the reason is that big business is afraid of an FPJ presidency. Another is the possibility that FPJ might get disqualified on the citizenship issue. FPJ’s biggest disadvantage in building local machinery, which, of necessity must include a large number of elected and appointed local officials, is that he is running against an incumbent president. Dependent on the central government for timely releases of Internal Revenue Allotments, pork barrel and other line agencies project funds, local executives have flocked to the Macapagal-Arroyo camp. Appointive officials will also be under pressure to support the president. Because there are too many people in the Macapagal-Arroyo camp, many competing for the same positions, some of these people will go to the FPJ camp. But only if FPJ can provide campaign resources. There is yet another aspect to a possible FPJ victory that we should worry about. When it was already clear that Erap would win in 1998, business was willing to factor him into their business plans. This time it is already clear that an FPJ victory will result in a severe economic downturn. Media, the academe, and church groups will subject a new FPJ administration to immediate criticism. This will create conditions that will tempt groups who are just waiting for an excuse to seize power through extra constitutional means. How will a president who thinks of himself as a ‘savior’ react? ‘Saviors’ make poor democrats. They are easily tempted by authoritarian solutions. Crisis and Reform There are groups on the Left who are negotiating coalitions, varieties of accommodation with the KNP.