WIC Template

1 Talking Point 6 Week in 60 Seconds Week in China 7 China Consumer 8 Media 9 Rail and Infrastructure 12 Society and Culture 17 Sport 25 October 2013 20 And Finally Issue 213 www.weekinchina.com 21 The Back Page What’s on the agenda? m o c . n i e t s p e a t i n e b . w w w At their November meeting China’s leaders are expected to announce sweeping economic reforms Brought to you by Week in China Talking Point 25 October 2013 A November to remember? Economic reform is top of the agenda as elite meet for Plenum About to get together with 200 of their friends for a small but earth-shaking plenary session yndon B Johnson once said of Jinping’s economic agenda as the relate to the selection of the key Lhis political brethren on Capi - innocuously named Third Party Party and state leaders (Xi Jinping tol Hill: “Now I know the differ - Plenum meets to discuss what was named as General Secretary of ence between a caucus and a could amount to some of the most the Party and chairman of the Cen - cactus. In a cactus all the pricks are significant changes to economic tral Military Commission last No - on the outside.” policy for well over a decade. vember, for instance, while he and The former American president So what is the Third Plenum and Li Keqiang were both approved for was something of a master when it what should we look out for? the top jobs of state president and came to earthy asides, but his words premier in the second plenary will have rung true for House The third meeting of what? meeting in February). Speaker John Boehner this month, The Third Plenary Session next But then the third session turns who found himself trying to mar - month is a meeting of the leader - to policy, offering a first chance to shall his unruly Republican col - ship of the Chinese Communist put forward a formal direction for leagues as they played chicken with Party comprising the Politburo’s the country over the years ahead. America’s credit standing. seven-member Standing Commit - Once the Party has indicated its As we reported in last week’s tee, plus the 200 or so members of priorities, the government is tasked Talking Point, the Chinese watched the Central Committee below it, with coming up with the details and events in Washington with a mix - that were selected at last Novem - putting the plans into action. ture of glee and disgust. But there ber’s Party Congress. P h o t o has also been some serious ‘caucus - Gatherings of this type are nor - We can expect some significant de - S o u r c ing’ going on in Beijing too, albeit a mally held annually during the cisions? e : I m a good deal less public than the bick - Politburo’s five-year cycle and run There won’t be an exhaustive blue - g i n e C ering in Congress. In November the for about four days. Traditionally print or a timeline for implement - h i n a public will get its first glimpse of Xi the first two plenums in the cycle ing it. But the Plenum is important 1 Week in China Talking Point 25 October 2013 Legacy issues: will Plenum steer China’s economy in a bold new direction? in highlighting the key themes ing to get the awkwardness of the ensure economic reforms were likely to filter down into more con - Bo Xilai trial out of the way first. launched there in 1978. crete government action in future. But others are more hopeful that Xi senior chose to retire to Shen - The Third Plenum also has his - the unusual timing could stem zhen (the pioneering special eco - torical pedigree as far as economic from the complexity of preparing nomic zone) too, which is reform is concerned. Almost all of the reform package, as well as the sometimes taken as a sign of his re - the coverage in the media of next need to consult more widely than formist leanings. Notably, his son month’s meeting has mentioned usual on how best to implement it. visited the same city last December, two key sessions of the past: the a move viewed as a symbolic first 1978 meeting at which Deng Xiaop - So China might be on the verge of trip after being inaugurated as ing enshrined the “reform and some major economic changes? Party boss (see WiC176). opening up” era, and the 1993 ses - The leadership seems to be making Truth be told, Xi’s policy instincts sion, generally seen as the starting an effort to suggest continuity with have been hard to make out since he point for the launch of the ‘social - reform initiatives of the past. This took office. He has preferred to talk ist market economy’ under Zhu extends beyond references to the rather vaguely about the ‘Chinese Rongji, China’s hugely influential key meetings of 1978 and 1993, with Dream’ (see WiC192) and the longer- premier of the late 1990s. Wang Xiangwei wondering in the term goal of delivering a “moder - In both cases the plenary meet - South China Morning Post this week ately prosperous society”. At the ings had huge implications for the if there is similar intent behind the same time Xi has burnished his rep - development of the economy, so the eulogising of Xi Zhongxun (Xi Jin - utation with the public by leading a suggestion that this year’s session ping’s father), following a series of campaign against waste and extrav - might be considered in the same events held to commemorate the agance in officialdom, as well as ap - grouping could be a significant in - birth of the former vice premier pearing to support a series of dicator in its own right. who died in 2002. investigations into senior-level offi - Indeed, the last time that the One motive is demonstrating cials suspected of corruption. Third Plenum was delayed from current president Xi’s lineage back Generally that has gone down October to November was in 1993, to one of the early leaders of the well. But the rhetoric has also been P h o t o inviting further comparison with People’s Republic, he says. But Wang laced with a message about the S o u r the Zhu years. Admittedly, some also picks up on the emphasis being need for further economic change. c e : R e China-watchers dispute this, sug - given to Xi senior’s stint as Party The Chinese Dream is achievable u t e r s gesting the delay is related to want - boss of Guangdong, and his battle to only with “comprehensive and 2 Week in China Talking Point 25 October 2013 deepening reform and opening up”, Xi has warned, while the state - ment accompanying the announce - ment of the delayed Third Plenum emphasised that “there is no way out for China to stop or even re - verse the process”. Li Keqiang told last month’s World Economic Forum in Dalian something similar: that “China is now at such a crucial stage that without structural transformation and upgrading, we will not be able to sustain economic growth.” Currency reforms top his agenda: central banker Zhou Xiaochuan Is Xi Jinping a reformer? A plus point for those calling for Premier Li, who heads up the econ - “Should we assume that all is change: Xi has experience as a mar - omy portfolio, have been waiting well in the Middle Kingdom?” ket reformer from his time in places for their moment. On the other Huang asked, when discussing the like Fujian, Zhejiang and Shanghai, hand, despite the supposedly new latest GDP data. “Not really. China’s writes Cheng Li from the Brookings thrust of ‘Likonomics’ (see WiC204), massive 2008 stimulus programme Institution. This could serve him the suspicion is that the old ways of pushed the economy off its former well in boosting the private sector thinking persist. For instance, crit - growth path. This deviation is partly and liberalising the financial system ics claim that some of the stronger a cyclical problem. But China also – two causes the previous adminis - GDP growth announced last week faces a structural issue in transi - tration did not advance. (7.8% for the last quarter versus 7.5% tioning from middle to high-in - Xi and his number two Li Ke - for the previous one) was purchased come status. No economy can grow qiang are also supported by an im - with policy mainstays like a burst in at 10% a year all the way to high-in - pressive team of technocrats, government spending and a further come levels so a decline to the 7-8% including Zhou Xiaochuan, the expansion in credit. range is inevitable, as it was for the longest-serving governor at the Peo - previous Asian Tigers. Their success, ple’s Bank of China and an experi - Does China even have a choice? however, was predicated on being enced economic reformer in his Here the argument is that after a able to ratchet up productivity so own right. Another key figure is Liu ‘lost decade’ in which Hu Jintao and that they could continue to grow at He, the new deputy director of the Wen Jiabao tried relatively little in a fairly rapid rate even as invest - National Development and Reform the way of reform, China’s develop - ment levels declined.” Commission. Liu was involved in ment model is running out of road.

Load more