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Skills of the Future How to Thrive in the Complex New World

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Skills of the Future How to Thrive in the Complex New World Skills of the future How to thrive in the complex new world ПРОФЕССИИ БУДУЩЕГО FUTURE SKILLS Skills of the future How to thrive in the complex new world Authors: E. Loshkareva, P. Luksha, I. Ninenko, I. Smagin, D. Sudakov. Authors wish to express their gratitude to the organizations which have acted as partners of foresights and expert sessions: Contents Introduction 7 1. Key trends defining future of work 11 1.0 Key trends 11 1.1 The digitalization of all areas of life 14 1.2 Automation in industry and the economy 19 1.3 Globalization of the economy, knowledge and technology 22 1.4 Environmentalization 25 1.5 Demographic changes 30 1.6 Network society 33 1.7 Acceleration of technological and social changes 37 1.8 A brand complex new world 39 2. Sectoral changes of economy 42 2.1 Sectors of economy and types of work perfomed 42 2.2.Changes in the manufacturing sector 43 2.3 Changes in the services sector 47 2.4 Changes in the knowledge economy sector 49 3. Changes in jobs 52 3.1 Workers leaving mass production 52 3.2 Transformation of workplaces 53 3.3 Automation patterns 55 3.4 New sectors of employment 58 4. The problem of transition 60 4.1 Disappearing jobs 60 4.2 Estimating the efects of automation 64 4.3 Redundant people 56 4.4 A new understanding of work 69 5. Skills of the 21st century 72 5.1 “Long tail” of skills 72 5.2 Basic skills of the 21st century 74 5.3 The new model of skills 76 6. Education of a complex new world 79 6.1 Crisis of an industrial educational model 79 6.2 Elements of a new educational ecosystem 82 Conclusion 85 Appendix 1 88 Appendix 2 90 Gratitudes 92 Introduction The making of this Report This Report is a product of a long-term cooperation chains of added value and labour division. One between Global Education Futures and WorldSkills way or another, the changes have an impact on Russia, which aims to determine the image of a every country of the world. workplace within the economy of the future. The Report contains the results of a foresight cycle and We do not make a detailed analysis of a partic- expert meetings co-hosted by GEF and WS in 2014- ular country, or macro-region in this Report. Howev- 2017. A considerable contribution to the success of er, the materials presented might serve as a basis this Report is largely attributed to the cooperation for subsequent work in that direction. The Report with event co-hosts, including the International La- pinpoints global trends inherent to all countries in bour Organization, the BRICS Business Council, the their transition towards a post-industrial society. Agency for Strategic Initiatives and the SKOLKOVO Moscow School of Management. The Report is designed to track global changes and transformations underway in most developed and developing countries. Key trends and patterns are usually visible to a certain extent. It depends on distinctive features of the economy under consid- eration and its degree of integration into global Documentation and events at the core of this Report AGENCY FOR STRATE- ATLAS OF MOSCOW SCHOOL GEF Discussion of skills BRICS Business Council GIC INITIATIVES EMERGING JOBS OF MANAGEMENT of the future involving in- Skills development Since 2012: future skills Ca. 200 jobs of the SKOLKOVO AND IN- dustrial & TVET leaders strategy with focus on for 25 existing sectors future (leading carrier TERNATIONAL LABOR from ca. 50 countries of Industry 4.0 since 2015 of Russian economy + 9 guiding tool that stim- ORGANIZATION the world emerging sectors of Na- ulated transformation Methodology of skills tional Technology Initia- of Russian secondary & anticipation. Pilot appli- tive Network of learning tertiary education) cations in Vietnam, Ar- platforms & STEM clubs menia, Tunis, Tanzania, for next generation of South Africa, Argentina engineers Ca. 200 jobs of the future (leading carrier guiding tool that stim- ulated transformation of Russian secondary & tertiary education) 7 Critical background The technological revolution is rapidly Requirements for new types of changing the social order specialists The ever-growing number of experts argue that Most tasks currently assigned to employees in mankind will soon face a radical change of eco- various sectors of economy will be automated or nomic and social way of life. These changes will be disappear due to the change in the way of so- driven by an accelerated development of technolo- cial organisation. New economy will require new gies and related social novelties. specialists. They will be tasked with assignments In particular, Klaus Martin Schwab, the founder requiring a creative approach and an ability to work and executive chairman of the World Economic with other people and artificial intelligence. The Forum, made a comprehensive reference to the very approach to work will be changing too. In- idea of the IV industrial revolution in his speech in stead of a familiar linear career in one occupation, Davos on 20 January 2016. According to Schwab, individuals will work on the true realisation of their we are to see forthcoming changes of the scale vocation by trying various specific activities. and complexity yet unknown to mankind. In a long-term perspective the new tech- nological transition may lead to a revolutionary breakthrough in labour efciency and economical development. However, in a short-term perspec- tive it may cause a substantial imbalance in the world economy, thereby aggravating inequality and encouraging the risk of global structured unem- ployment. Challenges to forecasting the future Any future forecast inevitably carries a risk of an methods (foresight-sessions, interviews with ex- error. This research is no exception. This is why we perts, trend analysis) supported by an overview want to bring your attention to a series of method- of the most relevant quantitative researches. ological assumptions and solutions that our Report is based on. >> Any forecasts on the skills evolution in this Report are secondary and derived from sugges- >> The life cycle of occupations is getting shorter. tions about changes in the environment of the In this regard, it seems more sensible to form a future. Still the future is variable and may take new skill-set rather than to forecast specific oc- any direction. In this work we rely on a series of cupations. These skills, once acquired, will help basic trends which will direct a markable transi- employees ensure their position within a partic- tion in society, economy and technologies. ular activity of the future as they will be ready for subsequent retraining. >> Even if a specific trend is correct for the purpos- es of such forecast, it is also subject to variation. >> There are plenty of methods to forecast skills of Hence, the variety of scenarios within any given the future. These methods are built upon exist- trend. If we had tried to forecast the future of ing data and past trends. They do not forecast jobs in the digital sector in the late 70s of the any qualitative shifts. Our assumption is that past century where the so-called mainframes society is on the brink of a substantial turning constituted the principal paradigm (large stations point. Therefore, a simple extrapolation of cur- with many connected terminals), we would have rent trends does not sufce to answer the ques- struggled to forecast the role PCs and mobile tion about what the world of a job of the future phones are playing today. In this connection will look like. Our Report is based on essential we deliberately try to omit any specific skills 8 l Introduction required for a specific activity. We pay more Our position attention to skills that are tailored for a variable We believe that mankind should take a serious world and help prepare for that kind of variation. approach towards the formation of a desired image of the future. One should not treat the future as a >> There is an ever-growing complexity and po- simple continuation of the present, as if tomorrow larisation of the world around us. There are still does not difer from the previous day. Education people in our world who remain ignorant of ba- and skill development is one of the most conserva- sic technologies and there are, of course, those tive areas. Sometimes training programmes re- living in highly developed societies. It is impossi- main unchanged for decades. We believe that this ble to forecast skills necessary for all people on approach will lead us nowhere. We hope that this earth. Report will contribute to the formation of a proba- ble positive image of the future, which in turn will For the purposes of our analysis we narrowed require conscious joint eforts of many actors of the focus and opted for a sectoral approach. We modern economy. attempted to watch the evolutionary line of skills in manufacturing, social services, and economy of knowledge in various countries which have already stepped into the transition towards a post-industrial social and economic way of life. Introduction l 9 1. Key trends defining future of work 1.0 Key trends We set an ambitious and challenging goal: to We suggest dividing existing trends into sev- determine what skills will be in demand in the 21st eral categories. Technological trends (automation, century. This means that we need to bring to light digitalization) are easily visible since they appear the processes that are changing society in the 21st on a physical level and immediately influence the century and demonstrate the ways in which these surrounding environment. changes will influence specific people at specific Social trends, as well as the trends at the inter- workplaces.
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