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The Dynamic Society THE DYNAMIC SOCIETY ‘Professor Snooks has undertaken as ambitious a project as one could possibly conceive of...it is a stimulating work, and one which shows an immense amount of reading, and an organization of the material into an interesting and highly speculative, but fascinating structure.’ Douglass C.North, Nobel Laureate in Economics In The Dynamic Society Graeme Snooks has set himself the highly ambitious task of exploring the driving force of global change over the past 2 million years. This path-breaking book is divided into three parts: • Part I—outlines and explains the entire history of life on earth, by developing a fully dynamic model, not just of genetic change, but of the broader wave-like fluctuations of biological activity. Central to this is the dynamic role of the individual operating in a competitive environment. • Part II—provides a critical review of current interpretations about the course of history and the forces driving it. • Part III—develops an entirely new interpretation of the dynamics of human society over the past 2 million years. It analyses how individuals in a competitive environment generate growth by investing in the dynamic strategies of family multiplication, conquest, commerce, and technology. It argues that the rise and fall of societies is an outcome of the development and exhaustion of these strategies. The author also employs his dynamic strategy model to discuss future outcomes for human society, controversially arguing that far from leading to ecological destruction, growth-inducing technological change is both necessary and liberating. Ultimately, the book demonstrates that dynamism, not stasis, is the essential condition of human society, as it is of life. Graeme Donald Snooks is the Coghlan Professor and Head of the Department of Economic History at the Institute of Advanced Studies, Australian National University. He has published widely on a number of central issues in economic history and is editor of a number of prestigious book series and journals. THE DYNAMIC SOCIETY Exploring the sources of global change Graeme Donald Snooks London and New York First published 1996 by Routledge 11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2003. Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 29 West 35th Street, New York, NY 10001 © 1996 Graeme Donald Snooks All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication Data Snooks, G.D. (Graeme D.) The dynamic society: exploring the sources of change/ Graeme D.Snooks. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Economic history 2. Statics and dynamics (Social sciences). 3. Social evolution. I. Title HC21.S64 1996 330.9–dc20 95–40965 CIP ISBN 0-203-02917-8 Master e-book ISBN ISBN 0-203-20418-2 (Adobe eReader Format) ISBN 0-415-13730-6 (hbk) ISBN 0-415-13731-4 (pbk) Dedicated to my sons Adrian Graham and Roland William who will inherit the future of the Dynamic Society CONTENTS List of figures ix List of tables xi Preface xii Acknowledgements xvi 1 CHARIOTS OF CHANGE 1 The dynamics of life and society 2 The dynamic interpreters 14 Part I The tide of time 2 GAME OF LIFE 21 The game 22 The rules 24 3 PLAYERS IN THE GAME 40 The emergence of life on Earth 41 The ascent of man 46 The civilization of man 52 4 DYNAMICS OF BEING 63 Darwinian dynamics and beyond 64 The great waves of life 74 An economic interpretation of the dynamics of life 82 Part II Shadow of the tower 5 TOWER OF BABEL 99 The languages of science 101 The languages of social science 110 6 QUEST FOR MEANING 137 Passive versus active man 138 Natural versus cultural man 143 Moral/political versus economic man 150 vii CONTENTS Part III Wheel of fire 7 RIDERS IN THE CHARIOT 169 The charioteer 171 The navigator 201 8 FAMILY OF MAN 208 The dynamic strategies of mankind 209 The family multiplication strategy 213 The historical role of the family 222 9 MAKER OF THE WHEEL 238 The technological strategy 239 The technological foundations of civilization 248 10 HORSEMEN OF WAR 270 Conquest as a dynamic strategy 272 Conquest-led growth 275 Riding into battle 279 11 CONJURERS OF COMMERCE 337 The dynamic strategy of commerce 338 Conjurers on centre stage 344 12 THE DYNAMIC SOCIETY 378 The pattern of dynamic change 379 An existential dynamic model 391 The three great mechanisms of the Dynamic Society 401 13 EDGE OF DARKNESS? 418 Before 2000: a world without the Industrial Revolution? 420 Beyond 2000: a world without growth? 427 Glossary of new terms and concepts 431 References 441 Index 455 viii FIGURES 2.1 Evolution of the continents 29 2.2 Continental construction activity 31 2.3 The changing rules of the game—the last 700 million years 32 2.4 Fluctuating sea levels—the last 135,000 years 34 2.5 Risk of an asteroid impact 37 3.1 Build-up of Earth’s free oxygen 41 3.2 Family numbers for marine and land organisms—the last 800 million years 44 4.1 The great waves of life—the last 3 billion years 75 4.2 The great waves of life—the last 270 million years 78 4.3 The mathematical momentum of life over the past 3 billion years 80 4.4 Ascending the intellectual staircase—the last 5 million years 81 5.1 Growth rates of the English economy, 1086–1990 115 7.1 Female market participation in the Western world, 1950–1992 200 8.1 The ‘great dispersion’ of modern man 224 8.2 ‘Funnels of transformation’ in the Old and New Worlds 226 10.1 The Assyrian Empire, 670 BC 283 10.2 The Macedonian Empire, 301 BC 290 10.3 The Roman Empire, AD 138 295 10.4 Western Europe, AD 1071 302 10.5 Chinese civilization, 1500 BC–AD 1644 316 10.6 The ancient societies of Mesoamerica 326 11.1 Trade routes, 1300 BC 348 11.2 Trade routes, 375 BC 355 11.3 Trade routes, AD 1028 362 11.4 Trade routes, 1600 371 11.5 European imports of bullion from the Americas, 1500–1800 373 12.1 World population—the last million years 380 12.2 World population—the last 8,000 years 381 12.3 Population of ancient Old World civilizations 383 12.4 Population of ancient New World civilizations 383 ix FIGURES 12.5 Long cycles in the ancient Old and New Worlds 384 12.6 Population of China, Europe, and England—the last 2,000 years 386 12.7 Great waves of economic change in England—the last millennium 389 12.8 Diagrammatic model of the Dynamic Society 400 12.9 The great steps of human progress 403 12.10 The great wheel of civilization 407 x TABLES 3.1 World population estimates for the species Homo—the last million years 49 7.1 The national income of feudal England, 1086 189 7.2 Market and subsistence sectors in the feudal economy of England, 1086 190 12.1 Strategies of the Dynamic Society—the last 2 million years 396 xi PREFACE In Time’s Arrow, Time’s Cycle, Stephen Gould, in following up an idea by Sigmund Freud, suggests that the increasing sophistication of human knowledge has gradually undermined man’s ‘original hope for our transcendent importance in the universe’. A number of discoveries have been particularly important in this respect. In the field of physics, Copernicus (1543) and Galileo (1632) showed, contrary to religious teaching, that the Earth was not the centre of the Universe. In the field of earth sciences, James Hutton (1785) and Charles Lyell (1830–1833) showed that geological time was not comfortingly short but unfathomably long with ‘human habitation restricted to a millimicrosecond at the very end’. In the field of biology, Charles Darwin (1859) showed that mankind had not been created with dominion over the rest of life but had only relatively recently evolved from it. To Gould’s list we can add a number of other discoveries that have profoundly changed the way we see our role in the Universe. In the field of prehistory, archaeologists from the mid-nineteenth century undermined the Biblical view that mankind appeared on Earth as recently as 4004 BC and that human society was fully formed from the beginning. More recently, in the fields of astronomy and physics there was the important discovery of an expanding universe (Slipher, 1924; Hubble, 1929) that began with the Big Bang (Gamow, 1952; Dicke et al., 1965) and may eventually end by contracting in upon itself; and in microbiology there was the discovery of the structure of DNA (Watson and Crick, 1953) and the development of genetic engineering which opens the disturbing possibility of changing what we are. Each discovery has challenged mankinds age-old assumption of a special role in life. What comforting but false notions remain? Currently the most cherished notion we hold about ourselves is the way we have transcended our origins through that uniquely human characteristic the intellect. Education and civilized culture, it is widely argued, have placed mankind above the great Darwinian struggle for life. Human society, we are told, is dominated not by base desires, but rather by intellectual ideas and altruism.
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