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Canadian Nuclear Association Association Nuclealre Canadienne r „ ^ * ISSN 0706-1293 27th ANNUAL CONFERENCE of the CANADIAN NUCLEAR ASSOCIATION Theme: "Meeting Society's Goals" PROCEEDINGS June 14-17, 1987 Saint John, New Brunswick Canada Published by the Canadian Nuclear Association 111 Elizabeth Street Toronto, Ontario, Canada M5G 1P7 Copyright© 1987 Canadian Nuclear Association 27th ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE CNA June 14-17, 1987 ORGANIZING COMMITTEE Frank MacLoon, NB Power Sponsoring Director Jan Burnham, NB Power Committee Chairman Dan Meneley, UNB CNA Program John Sommerville, NB Power CNS Program Bob Munro, NB Power Hotel Arrangements Diane Waechter, CNA Registrations Jim Weller, CNA CNA/CNS Representation Roger Steed, NB Power Exhibit Coordinator Terry Thompson, NB Power Public Affairs Jeff Jones, NB Power Publications Wendy Anderson-Gillespie, NB Power Spousal Program, Tours Janice Haig, NB Power Graphics and Printing John Paciga, NB Power Secretary Arlie Blizzard, NB Power Treasurer I. TABLE OF CONTENTS SESSION 1 - SETTING THE SCENE PLANNING ENERGY SUPPLIES FOR PEOPLE O.J.C. Runnalls Chairman, Centre for Nuclear Engineering & Professor of Energy Studies University of Toronto THE CANADIAN GOVERNMENT'S REGULATORY POLICY INITIATIVE AND THE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY Antony Campbell Assistant Deputy Minister, Regulatory Affairs Office of Privatization and Regulatory Affairs 22 NUCLEAR REGULATION - IN TUNE WITH THE TIMES Z. Eomaratzki Director General Directorate of Reactor Regulation T.J. Molloy Manager, Components and Quality Assurance Division Atomic Energy Control Board 29 THE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY'S RECORD OF SERVICE Dr. Norman Aspin, President Electrical, Electronics Manufacturers Association of Canada J.E. Wilson, Vice President Canadian Nuclear Association 42 NUCLEAR POWER IN THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY: ONE YEAR AFTER CHERNOBYL Jean-Claude Charrault and Derek M. Taylor Commission of the European Communities 47 ROMANIAN NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM: A PROGRESS REPORT Mihai Pop, Director General ISPE, Dr. Eng. John P. Karger, Resident Engineering Manager Mircea Tarta, Deputy Manager ISPE Constantin Ningiuc, Cernavoda Design Manager Institute of Nuclear Power Studies and Design 63 \ SESSION 2 - THE DIALOGUE WITH THE PUBLIC TECHNOLOGY AND THE PUBLIC Gordon M. MacNabb (Panel Moderator & Panelist) Associate to the Principal, Queen's University; and President & Chief Executive Officer, Precarn Associates Inc 78 PANEL ON PUBLIC INFORMATION IN THE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY Margaret A. Buhlman Vice President, Research Decima Research 86 Rino Castonguay Department des Sciences Cite' des Jeune A.-M. Sormany 87 Linden Maclntyre Journalist Canadian Broadcasting Corporation 90 P. Parker Fredericton High School 94 P.J. Spratt President, P.J. Spratt & Associates Inc 95 SESSION 3 - IAEA: THE INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE THE AGENCY'S ROLE AND NEEDS IN THE PEACEFUL DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR ENERGY L.V. Konstantinov Deputy Director General, Dept. of Nuclear Energy and Safety International Atomic Energy Agency 101 THE OUTLOOK FOR NUCLEAR POWER AFTER CHERNOBYL L.L. Bennett Head, Economic Studies Section, Div. of Nuclear Power International Atomic Energy Agency 113 TRENDS TOWARDS IMPROVED OPERATING PERFORMANCE OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS N.L. Char Director, Div. of Nuclear Power G. Samdani Div. of Nuclear Power D. White International Atomic Energy Agency 128 \ THE INTERNATIONALIZATION OF NUCLEAR SAFETY - THE IAEA SAFETY PROGRAMME Morris Rosen Assistant Deputy Director General Director, Division of Nuclear Safety International Atomic Energy Agency 147 INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE TO THE PLANT OPERATOR FOR IMPROVED SAFETY E.M. Yaremy Division of Nuclear Safety International Atomic Energy Agency 153 SESSION 4 - ECONOMIC GOALS AND OPERATING LESSONS SLIGHTLY-ENRICHED FUEL FOR CANDU REACTORS P.R. Burroughs and G.H. Archinoff Design and Development Division - Generation Ontario Hydro 172 SUPPLY IN THE URANIUM FUEL CYCLE Jan Murray Secretary-General The Uranium Institute 190 IMPACT OF SUSTAINED ECONOMIC GROWTH ON THE U.S. POWER MARKET John R. Siegel Vice President, The Atomic Industrial Forum 203 DEVELOPING NEW PRODUCTS FROM CANADIAN NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY Dr. S.R. Hatcher, President Atomic Energy of Canada Limited Research Company 221 THE USE OF RADIOISOTOPES IN MEDICINE AND FOOD PROCESSING D.J.R. Evans Vice President, Isotope Division AECL Radiochemical Company 233 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT AND EMERGENCY RESPONSE LESSONS FROM CHERNOBYL E.A. Warman Stone & Webster Engineering Corporation 238 CHERNOBYL SAFETY LESSONS FOR THE CANDU SYSTEM - A DESIGNER'S PERSPECTIVE G.L. Brooks Vice President & Chief Engineer Atomic Energy of Canada Limited 267 .... ,-. I SESSION 5 - PERFORMANCE GOALS PICKERING NGS UNIT I - READY FOR SERVICE W.G. Morison, W.J. Penn, K.H. Talbot, B.J. Murdoch Ontario Hydro 272 RECENT OPERATIONAL EXPERIENCE AT GENTILLY 2 Joseph M. McNally Vice-President, Mauricie Region Michel L. Ross Adviser - Special Projects Hydro-Quebec 298 (f rench version) . •• 308 EXPERIENCE D1 EXPLOITATION D'UN PARC IMPORTANT DE CENTRALES NUCLE"AIRES L. Bertron Service de la Production Thermique Electricity de France 328 THE CANDU OWNERS GROUP - ORGANIZATION FOR THE FUTURE H.S. Irvine - Ontario Hydro J.E. Stevens - AECL A. Duchesne — Hydro—Quebec A.R. McKenzie - New Brunswick Power B.R. Collingwood - CANDU Owners Group 342 PERFORMANCE INDICATORS AND LONG TERM GOALS T.J. Sullivan Division Director, Engineering Institute of Nuclear Power Operations 362 RADIATION PROTECTION - THE FUTURE? R. Wilson Director, Health and Safety Division D.A. Lee Manager, Safety Services Department Ontario Hydro 379 LUNCHEON ADDRESSES Sam G. Horton Chairman, Canadian Nuclear Association 386 R.W. Morrison Uranium and Nuclear Energy Branch Department of Energy, Mines and Resources 389 PLANNING ENERGY SUPPLIES FOR PEOPLE 0.J.C. Runnalls Chairman, Centre for Nuclear Engineering & Professor of Energy Studies University of Toronto Toronto, Ontario WORLD POPULATION The world population grew relatively slowly during the first 1500 years after 1 A.D. from a starting level of about 300 million people. Then the total began to escalate more rapidly until today the population.stands at an estimated 5 billion as indicat- ed in Figure l.U)UMJ' Fully 75% of that number live in less developed regions. These areas are sometimes referred to as the "South" and consist of Asia, Africa and Latin America as shown in Figure 2.' ' Figure 1 World Population (1) (2) t3) soo IOOO ISOO 2.OQO 2500 Population projections up to the end of the century indicate that the less developed regions will grow at about .3.to 4 times the rate of more developed regions in the "North" (see Figure 3). Figure 2 Regions of the World (4) North America Europe Industrialized Countries of the Pacific South Africa Sou th: Asia Africa Latin America Figure 3 Estimated World Population Growth Z-5 V WORLD o «E moat ocvcu»i>«e £«»<•<*« iOS •z 1 1 '960 1985 /99O /9S5 2000 By 2000 about 80% of the world's people will live in the South. As illustrated in Figure 4, the age distribution^in the two parts of the world will be markedly different as well '. The populat- ion in the North will be an aging one, whereas an increasing number of young people will be present in the South. Figure 4 Age-Sex Composition of World Population (2) MORE DEYELOPELO 1975 aooo JOO zoo 100 zoo zoo JOO LESS DEVELOPED 80* REGIONS 300 TOO Many amongst the 4 billion in less developed regions will be living in squalor and below the poverty level. This is not to say, however, that their expectations for improvement will not be high, particularly in this modern electronic age where the good life being experienced by many in the North is visible for all to see. It will be apparent, therefore, that the problems in plan- ing future energy supplies are immense but must be solved if social chaos is to be avoided. WORLD ENERGY SUPPLIES During the past 125 years, the sources of world primary,-energy supply have changed dramatically as shown in Figure 5. In 1860, wood was a very important source supplying some 70% of the total required. Now, however, its contribution is just a few percent even though many in the South rely on wood to provide heat for cooking and for warmth. The'use of coal peaked about 1920 and of oil some 60 years later. During the last 75 years, nuclear power has been the only new source to appear in an amount large enough to show on Figure 5 ,- i.e. greater than 1% of the total. Towards the end of the century and beyond, there may be other sources that contribute significantly such as solar energy and synthetic liquids. For the moment, however, they are not economically competitive. That situation could change in future as conventional hydrocarbons become more expensive, and should technological advances render solar power more attractive. Figure 5 . World Primary Energy Supply, 1860-2030 10 0-99 10 O-90 <D & VI 3; ui O-7O Q Id 0*0 % O-ZO u. 0 Oio 2 0 h iu iaso 1900 I93G 2OOO ZOSOOol Since 1900, wQ?}d annual energy consumption has increased more than ten-fold (see Figure 6). Since during the same period population has grown 2.5 times, the per capita energy consumption has risen by a factor of 4. In recent years oil and natural gas have played a major role, providing 58% of the total in 1985, for example. However, the contribution of oil appears to have peaked about 1980 with indications that it is now on the decline. Natural gas is expected to follow the same path, but perhaps Figure 6 World Primary Energy Consumption During the Twentieth Century (6) (Exajoules or Gigatonnes Oil Equivalent) 4-00 - 8 1300 19*0 I960 1380 zooo lagging by several decades. Meanwhile, energy consumption will continue to grow to more than double or.triple the present level by the year 2060 as shown in Figure 7. The uncertainty alone in energy needs by then will be larger than the total consumption in 1985. One estimate out- lining how.this huge future demand might be met is set out in Figure 8.

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