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THE FUTURE of NUCLEAR ENERGY to 2030 and ITS IMPLICATIONS for SAFETY, SECURITY and NONPROLIFERATION Part 1 – the Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030

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THE FUTURE of NUCLEAR ENERGY to 2030 and ITS IMPLICATIONS for SAFETY, SECURITY and NONPROLIFERATION Part 1 – the Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY TO 2030 AND IT’S IMPLICATIONS FOR SAFETY, SECURITY AND NON PROLIFERATION: PART 2 – THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY TO 2030 TO THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY 2 – PART AND NON PROLIFERATION: SECURITY FOR SAFETY, AND IT’S IMPLICATIONS 2030 TO THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY TO 2030 AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR SAFETY, SECURITY AND NONPROLIFERATION Part 1 – The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 57 Erb Street West TREVOR FINDLAY Waterloo, Ontario N2L 6C2, Canada tel +1 519 885 2444 fax +1 519 885 5450 www.cigionline.org CIGIONLINE.ORG Addressing International Governance Challenges The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 and its Implications for Safety, Security and Nonproliferation Part 1 – The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 Trevor Findlay CIGI’s Nuclear Energy Futures Project is conducted in partnership with the Canadian Centre for Treaty Compliance (CCTC) at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton University, Ottawa. The project is chaired by CIGI Distinguished Fellow Louise Fréchette and directed by CIGI Senior Fellow Trevor Findlay, director of CCTC. CIGI gratefully acknowledges the Government of Ontario’s contribution to this project. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Centre for International Governance Innovation, its Board of Directors and/or Board of Governors, or the Government of Ontario. Copyright © 2010 The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), Waterloo, Ontario, Canada (www.cigionline.org). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution — Noncommercial — No Derivatives License. To view this license, visit (www.creativecommons.org/ licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/). For re-use or distribution, please include this copyright notice. The Centre for International Governance Innovation Table of Contents List of Tables and Figures 5 Technical Glossary 6 Foreword 7 Preface to the Final Report of the Nuclear Energy Futures Project: Parts 1 to 4 8 Part 1: The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 9 The Drivers 10 Growing Energy Demand 10 The Problem with Global Demand Projections 12 Energy Security 15 Uranium 16 Thorium 17 Mixed Oxide (MOX) Fuel 17 Nuclear Technology Dependence 19 Climate Change 20 The Promise of Nuclear Technology – Current and Future 24 Improvements in Current Power Reactors (Generation II) 24 Generation III and Generation III+ Reactors 25 Small, Medium, Miniaturized and Other Novel Reactors 27 Generation IV Reactors 29 Fast Neutron and Breeder Reactors 30 Fusion Power 32 Political and Promotional Drivers 32 Political Drivers 32 Nuclear Promotion Internationally 33 Nuclear Promotion Domestically 37 The Constraints 39 Nuclear Economics 39 The Effects of Deregulation of Electricity Markets 40 The (Rising) Cost of Nuclear Power Plants 41 Cost Comparisons with Other Baseload Power Sources 42 Cost Comparisons with Non-Baseload Alternatives: Conservation, Efficiency and Renewable 48 Construction Delays and Cost Overruns 50 The Impact of the 2008-2009 Current Financial Crisis 53 The Impact of Government Subsidies 54 The Impact of Carbon Pricing 56 Costs of Nuclear Waste Management and Decommissioning 57 Industrial Bottlenecks 57 Personnel Constraints 61 Nuclear Waste 62 Interim Storage 63 Long-Term Disposition 63 Safety, Security and Proliferation 66 The “Revival” so Far 66 Current “New Build” 67 “New Build” by Existing Nuclear Energy States 68 Aspiring Nuclear Energy States 72 Institutional Capacity 75 Physical Infrastructure 77 Financial Indicators 79 The Most Likely New Entrants 81 Conclusions 85 4 Part 1: The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 and its Implications for Safety, Security and Nonproliferation Endnotes 86 Works Cited 89 About the Author 102 Nuclear Energy Futures Project Publications 103 Acronyms and Abbreviations 104 About CIGI 106 List of Tables and Figures Global Nuclear Energy Projections at 2030 11 IAEA Projections of World Nuclear Power Capacity (High Estimates) 13 Global Nuclear Generating Capacity 14 Box: Predictions for Developing Countries 14 Predicted versus Actual Additions to Nuclear Generation Capacity, 1980-1989 15 World’s Major Uranium Producers (tonnes U) 16 Coal-Fired CO2 Emissions Displaced Per Dollar Spent on Electrical Services 23 Progression of Nuclear Reactor Technologies 26 The International Nuclear Industry 27 Box: The South African Pebble Bed Reactor 28 Box: Generation IV Reactors Being Studied By GIF 30 Fast Breeder Reactors by Status and Country, 2009 31 GNEP Members, January 2010 34 Results of Recent Studies on the Cost of Nuclear Power 44 Costs of Electricity Generation Alternatives 47 Levelized Cost of Low Carbon Options to Meet Electricity Needs 49 Overnight Cost of Completed Nuclear Reactors Compared to Projected Costs of Future Reactors 51 Box: The Olkiluoto-3 Project in Finland 52 Box: The French Example―Exemplar or Sui Generis? 58 Box: Yucca Mountain 65 Nuclear Reactor Numbers and Share of Global Electricity Production Since 2000 67 Global Annual Grid Connections on Five-year Moving Average 67 Nuclear Power Plants Currently under Construction by Country 68 Current and Aspiring Nuclear Energy States 73 Nuclear Infrastructure Development Programme (IAEA) 74 Governance Indicators for SENES States, 2008 76 Installed Electricity Generation Capacity for SENES States, 2005 78 GDP and Credit Ratings for SENES States, 2007 and 2009 80 Part 1: The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 cigionline.org 5 The Centre for International Governance Innovation Technical Glossary Units BTU British thermal unit g gram kWh kilowatt hour – a unit of electrical energy equal to the work done by one kilowatt acting for one hour SWU separative work unit – a measure of work done by a machine or plant in separating uranium into higher or lower fractions of U-235 t tonne We watt (electric) Wth watt (thermal) Elements and Compounds C carbon CO2 carbon dioxide Pu plutonium U uranium UF6 uranium hexafluoride Metric Prefixes k kilo 103 M mega 106 G giga 109 T tera 1012 All dollar values in this report, unless otherwise noted, are in US dollars. 6 Part 1: The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 cigionline.org The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 and its Implications for Safety, Security and Nonproliferation Foreword one in Sydney, Australia, and one in Waterloo, Ontario; and participated in conferences and workshops held By Louise Fréchette by others. The project has assembled what is probably the most comprehensive and up-to-date information on possible additions to the list of countries that have 2010 will be a pivotal year for nuclear issues. In April, nuclear power plants for civilian purposes. Along with President Obama will host a special summit on nuclear this Survey of Emerging Nuclear Energy States (SENES), security. In May, parties to the Nuclear Non-proliferation the project has produced a compendium of all the nuclear Treaty will gather in New York for a review conference global governance instruments in existence today which and in June, at the G8 Summit hosted by Canada, nuclear will, I believe, prove to be a valuable reference tool for proliferation issues will occupy a prominent place on the researchers and practioners alike. agenda. New challenges to the nuclear nonproliferation The project was generously funded and supported by regime by countries such as North Korea and Iran and The Centre for International Governance Innovation and growing concerns about the possible appropriation of was carried out in partnership with the Canadian Centre nuclear material by terrorist groups arise at a time when for Treaty Compliance (CCTC) at Carleton University, there is much talk about a major increase in the use of Ottawa. I was very fortunate to have found in Dr. Trevor nuclear energy for civilian purposes. Findlay, director of the CCTC, the perfect person to This so-called “nuclear renaissance” was the starting point oversee this ambitious project. I am very grateful to him of the Nuclear Energy Futures project which was initiated and his small team of masters students at the Norman in May 2006. The purpose of this project was three-fold: Paterson School of International Affairs, especially Justin Alger, Derek de Jong, Ray Froklage and Scott Lofquist- • to investigate the likely size, shape and nature of the Morgan, for their hard work and dedication. purported nuclear energy revival to 2030 – not to make a judgement on the merits of nuclear energy, Nuclear issues are quintessential global issues. Their but rather to predict its future; effective management requires the collaboration of a • to consider the implications for global governance broad range of actors. Canada, with its special expertise in the areas of nuclear safety, security and in nuclear technology and its long history of engagement nonproliferation; and in the construction of effective global governance in this • to make recommendations to policy makers in area, is particularly well placed to help deal with the new Canada and abroad on ways to strengthen global challenges on the horizon. My colleagues and I hope governance in these areas. that the findings and recommendations of the Nuclear The project commissioned more than a dozen research Energy Futures Project will be of use to policy makers as papers, most of which have been published in CIGI’s they prepare for the important meetings which will be Nuclear Energy Futures Papers series; held several held later this year. workshops, consultations and interviews with key Louise Fréchette Canadian and foreign stakeholders, including industry, Chair of the Nuclear Energy Futures Project government, academia and non-governmental Distinguished Fellow, organizations; convened two international conferences, The Centre for International Governance Innovation Part 1: The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030 cigionline.org 7 The Centre for International Governance Innovation Preface to the Final Report of the Nuclear Energy Futures Project: Parts 1 to 4 This report culminates three-and-a-half years’ work Part 1, The Future of Nuclear Energy to 2030, provides on the Nuclear Energy Futures (NEF) project.
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