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Killing of Soleimani Escalates Tensions in Middle East, Rattles Tehran's

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Killing of Soleimani Escalates Tensions in Middle East, Rattles Tehran's Issue 238, Year 5 US/Canada: January 5, 2020 www.thearabweekly.com $1.00 Interview New goverments Expectations Fighting in Tunisia, in MENA in corruption Algeria the new year in Lebanon Page 11 Page 12 Pages 6,8-9,14,18 Killing of Soleimani escalates tensions in Middle East, rattles Tehran’s proxy strategy Conventional warfare is likely to be more costly for Iran now that the deniability that comes with acts of sabotage and terrorism is no more an option. Thomas Seibert ing Iran’s influence in Iraq by tak- ing part in the campaign to drive back the Islamic State but also di- Istanbul recting attacks against US interests in the region. he death of Iran’s top mili- US President Donald Trump tary strategist and, argu- said Soleimani was killed “to stop ably, its second-most pow- a war,” not start one. The Iranian T erful man in a US drone general had been plotting “immi- attack raised tensions in the Mid- nent and sinister” attacks. At the dle East and rattled Tehran’s proxy Pentagon, US Army General Mark strategy as well as its approach to- Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs wards Washington’s policies in the of Staff, said the United States had region. “compelling, clear, unambiguous Iranian Major-General Qassem intelligence” of Soleimani plot- Soleimani, head of the elite al- ting violent acts. The US military Quds Force, was killed early Janu- is sending nearly 3,000 additional ary 3 in a US drone strike on his troops to Kuwait to defend Ameri- convoy near Baghdad Internation- can interests against potential Ira- al Airport. Top Iraqi militia com- nian revenge attacks. mander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis Trump also proposed negotia- was also killed. Fears of a military tions with Tehran, writing on Twit- confrontation between Iran and ter that the time was right for Iran the United States drove oil prices to agree to talks with his adminis- up nearly $3 a barrel. tration. “Iran never won a war, but Fallen icon. Supporters of the Hashed al-Shaabi and Iraq’s Hezbollah Brigades pose for a picture next never lost a negotiation!” he said. to a poster of Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani, in Baghdad, January 4. (AFP) Hassan Hassan, Tehran vowed retaliation, with director of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatol- Non-State Actors lah Ali Khamenei threatening “se- an all-time high.” tion with the United States over with acts of sabotage and terrorism Programme at the vere revenge.” Khamenei called for “The US might have to coun- Tehran’s nuclear programme and is no more an option. Centre for Global Policy three days of national mourning terattack depending on what Iran aggressive regional stance. That Hassan Hassan, director of the “Iran has overplayed and appointed Soleimani’s deputy, does, which could trigger an esca- strategy has limited Iranian losses Non-State Actors Programme, its hand.” Brigadier-General Esmail Qaani, to latory cycle that could easily spiral and allowed Tehran to keep nego- Centre for Global Policy in Wash- replace him as al-Quds Force com- out of control,” he said. tiation channels open with Japan, ington, said Iran had become “too mander. Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forc- Russia and Europe. comfortable” in recent months be- Soleimani, 62, was the brains be- Analysts said the Iranian regime, es umbrella grouping of mostly Deniability may no longer be cause the United States did not re- hind an aggressive power drive by whose political encroachment was Iran-backed paramilitary groups an option for Iran, however. The spond decisively to Iranian provo- Iran that expanded Tehran’s inter- rejected by demonstrators in Iraq said January 3 that air strikes near death of a US military contractor cations. As an example, Soleimani ventions in Iraq, Syria and Leba- and Lebanon, had its back to the Camp Taji had killed six people in a missile attack by Iran-backed “moved around feeling invinci- non and sharpened conflicts with wall. and critically wounded three but militiamen in northern Iraq trig- ble,” he wrote on Twitter. US allies, including Saudi Arabia “This is nothing short of a decla- the US-led coalition fighting the gered US air strikes, which led to “Iran has overplayed its hand,” and the United Arab Emirates but ration of war to a cornered country Islamic State said it did not launch violent protests at the US Embassy Hassan added. also Israel. that has increasingly less to lose,” the attacks. in Baghdad. The Pentagon said Al-Quds Force was instrumental Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Soleimani’s death is a serious Soleimani “approved” the pro- Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly in saving Syrian President Bashar Programme at the International setback for Iran’s strategy to use tests. Conventional warfare is like- correspondent. Assad from defeat in the first years Crisis Group, wrote on Twitter. proxies and the principle of “plau- ly to be more costly for Iran now of the Syrian civil war and cement- “The risks of miscalculation are at sible deniability” in its confronta- that the deniability that comes P2,6,8,10,17 Tensions rise over Erdogan’s gas designs in Mediterranean, Libya war The Arab Weekly staff take over Tripoli. because all other regional pow- severs the Greek Cypriot-Greece tensions more. The Syrian Observa- The same day, leaders of Greece, ers and their great power backers maritime connection, in power to tory for Human Rights said about Israel and Cyprus signed a deal for have aligned against Turkey in their have leverage in the oil and gas 300 pro-Turkish Syrian fighters have Istanbul an undersea pipeline that would joint effort to exclude Turkey from game in the Eastern Mediterranean.” been dispatched to Libya. carry gas from new offshore depos- the Eastern Mediterranean — its oil A Turkish official, speaking on In its deployment of the fighters, ensions in the Eastern Med- its in the south-eastern Mediter- and gas resources — that Ankara condition of anonymity, said the Turkey seems to be borrowing the iterranean are expected to ranean to continental Europe, is returning militarily to Libya” root of the problems between Tur- scripts of both international private rise sharply as Turkey’s ag- sidelining Turkey. a century after the Ottoman key and its neighbours was the un- mercenary contractors and those of T gressive strategy in a scram- The 1,900km East- Empire lost the region to Italy, solved problem of Cyprus, which global jihadist groups. ble for natural gas resources triggers Med pipeline is Karaveli said. has been divided between a Turkish US President Donald Trump a united response by neighbouring intended to “Turkey needs to and a Greek part since 1974. “Every- warned Turkish President Recep countries determined to stop Anka- provide an keep the officially thing is because of the problem of Tayyip Erdogan in a telephone call ra. Turkish parliament’s approval to alternative recognised Libyan Cyprus,” the official said. “that foreign interference is compli- deploy troops in Libya only added gas source government, The division of the island cating the situation in Libya,” White to such tensions. for energy- with which it has sparked Turkish claims that Greece House spokesman Hogan Gidley Turkey’s actions sparked warn- hungry Eu- reached the and the Greek republic of Cyprus said in a statement. ings by the United States and Russia, rope, which is maritime bor- ignore the interests of Turkish Russia is also concerned over Tur- as well as by Egypt. largely depend- der agree- Cypriots in exploiting gas resourc- key’s plan to send troops to Libya. “Escalation is probable in the ent on supplies ment that es nearby. Ankara is also irked that Leonid Slutsky, chairman of the Eastern Med,” Halil Karaveli, author from Russia and effectively regional countries prefer to build State Duma Committee on Interna- of “Why Turkey is Authoritarian,” the Caucasus the costly underwater pipeline to tional Affairs, said military interven- said by e-mail. “Turkey may decide region. ship gas to Europe instead of using tion is certainly not the best option to formally annex northern Cyprus. Karaveli said a pipeline network on the Turkish to resolve the crisis in Libya. Egypt, Building a naval base there is also Turkey’s plan to mainland. which, like Russia, backs Haftar in being considered.” get involved Ankara has raised the stakes with Libya, condemned the vote in Tur- Turkey’s parliament voted Janu- in the Libyan recent moves to explore waters con- key’s parliament. ary 2 to send troops to Libya after conflict mili- trolled by Cyprus and Greece. The In a Tv address, January 3, Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sar- tarily was de- two EU members are particularly Haftar called on Libyans to bear raj’s internationally recognised Gov- signed to cre- disturbed Turkey sent warship- arms, “men and women, soldiers ernment of National Accord (GNA) ate pressure on escorted drill ships into waters and civilians, to defend our land requested support. The GNA is fend- its neighbours Westward ambitions. Turkish lawmaker of the where Cyprus has exclusive eco- and our honour” against Turkish ing off an offensive by Field-Marshal in the Eastern opposition Workers’ Party Erkan Bas shows a map nomic rights. “colonisers”. Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Mediterranean. of divided Libya before a parliamentary vote to Turkey’s plan to send troops send Turkish troops to Libya, January 2. (AFP) Army (LNA), which is attempting to “It is precisely and fighters to Libya drives up P3,6,9,13,15-16 2 January 5, 2020 Top news Iran’s risky brinkmanship led straight to US unprecedented action The Arab Weekly staff in Kirkuk in late December or when Kata’ib Hezbollah supporters sur- rounded the US Embassy in Baghdad London following a US retaliatory strike that killed 25 of its militia members.
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