Issue 238, Year 5 US/Canada: January 5, 2020 www.thearabweekly.com $1.00 Interview New goverments Expectations Fighting in Tunisia, in MENA in corruption the new year in Lebanon Page 11 Page 12 Pages 6,8-9,14,18 Killing of Soleimani escalates tensions in Middle East, rattles ’s proxy strategy Conventional warfare is likely to be more costly for now that the deniability that comes with acts of sabotage and terrorism is no more an option.

Thomas Seibert ing Iran’s influence in Iraq by tak- ing part in the campaign to drive back the Islamic State but also di- Istanbul recting attacks against US interests in the region. he death of Iran’s top mili- US President Donald Trump tary strategist and, argu- said Soleimani was killed “to stop ably, its second-most pow- a war,” not start one. The Iranian T erful man in a US drone general had been plotting “immi- attack raised tensions in the Mid- nent and sinister” attacks. At the dle East and rattled Tehran’s proxy Pentagon, US Army General Mark strategy as well as its approach to- Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs wards Washington’s policies in the of Staff, said the United States had region. “compelling, clear, unambiguous Iranian Major-General Qassem intelligence” of Soleimani plot- Soleimani, head of the elite al- ting violent acts. The US military Quds Force, was killed early Janu- is sending nearly 3,000 additional ary 3 in a US drone strike on his troops to Kuwait to defend Ameri- convoy near Baghdad Internation- can interests against potential Ira- al Airport. Top Iraqi militia com- nian revenge attacks. mander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis Trump also proposed negotia- was also killed. Fears of a military tions with Tehran, writing on Twit- confrontation between Iran and ter that the time was right for Iran the United States drove oil prices to agree to talks with his adminis- up nearly $3 a barrel. tration. “Iran never won a war, but Fallen icon. Supporters of the Hashed al-Shaabi and Iraq’s Hezbollah Brigades pose for a picture next never lost a negotiation!” he said. to a poster of Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani, in Baghdad, January 4. (AFP) Hassan Hassan, Tehran vowed retaliation, with director of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatol- Non-State Actors lah Ali Khamenei threatening “se- an all-time high.” tion with the United States over with acts of sabotage and terrorism Programme at the vere revenge.” Khamenei called for “The US might have to coun- Tehran’s nuclear programme and is no more an option. Centre for Global Policy three days of national mourning terattack depending on what Iran aggressive regional stance. That Hassan Hassan, director of the “Iran has overplayed and appointed Soleimani’s deputy, does, which could trigger an esca- strategy has limited Iranian losses Non-State Actors Programme, its hand.” Brigadier-General Esmail Qaani, to latory cycle that could easily spiral and allowed Tehran to keep nego- Centre for Global Policy in Wash- replace him as al-Quds Force com- out of control,” he said. tiation channels open with Japan, ington, said Iran had become “too mander. Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forc- Russia and Europe. comfortable” in recent months be- Soleimani, 62, was the brains be- Analysts said the Iranian regime, es umbrella grouping of mostly Deniability may no longer be cause the United States did not re- hind an aggressive power drive by whose political encroachment was Iran-backed paramilitary groups an option for Iran, however. The spond decisively to Iranian provo- Iran that expanded Tehran’s inter- rejected by demonstrators in Iraq said January 3 that air strikes near death of a US military contractor cations. As an example, Soleimani ventions in Iraq, and Leba- and Lebanon, had its back to the Camp Taji had killed six people in a missile attack by Iran-backed “moved around feeling invinci- non and sharpened conflicts with wall. and critically wounded three but militiamen in northern Iraq trig- ble,” he wrote on Twitter. US allies, including “This is nothing short of a decla- the US-led coalition fighting the gered US air strikes, which led to “Iran has overplayed its hand,” and the United Arab Emirates but ration of war to a cornered country Islamic State said it did not launch violent protests at the US Embassy Hassan added. also . that has increasingly less to lose,” the attacks. in Baghdad. The Pentagon said Al-Quds Force was instrumental Ali Vaez, the director of the Iran Soleimani’s death is a serious Soleimani “approved” the pro- Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly in saving Syrian President Bashar Programme at the International setback for Iran’s strategy to use tests. Conventional warfare is like- correspondent. Assad from defeat in the first years Crisis Group, wrote on Twitter. proxies and the principle of “plau- ly to be more costly for Iran now of the and cement- “The risks of miscalculation are at sible deniability” in its confronta- that the deniability that comes P2,6,8,10,17 Tensions rise over Erdogan’s gas designs in Mediterranean, Libya war

The Arab Weekly staff take over Tripoli. because all other regional pow- severs the Greek Cypriot-Greece tensions more. The Syrian Observa- The same day, leaders of Greece, ers and their great power backers maritime connection, in power to tory for Human Rights said about Israel and Cyprus signed a deal for have aligned against Turkey in their have leverage in the oil and gas 300 pro-Turkish Syrian fighters have Istanbul an undersea pipeline that would joint effort to exclude Turkey from game in the Eastern Mediterranean.” been dispatched to Libya. carry gas from new offshore depos- the Eastern Mediterranean — its oil A Turkish official, speaking on In its deployment of the fighters, ensions in the Eastern Med- its in the south-eastern Mediter- and gas resources — that Ankara condition of anonymity, said the Turkey seems to be borrowing the iterranean are expected to ranean to continental Europe, is returning militarily to Libya” root of the problems between Tur- scripts of both international private rise sharply as Turkey’s ag- sidelining Turkey. a century after the Ottoman key and its neighbours was the un- mercenary contractors and those of T gressive strategy in a scram- The 1,900km East- Empire lost the region to Italy, solved problem of Cyprus, which global jihadist groups. ble for natural gas resources triggers Med pipeline is Karaveli said. has been divided between a Turkish US President Donald Trump a united response by neighbouring intended to “Turkey needs to and a Greek part since 1974. “Every- warned Turkish President Recep countries determined to stop Anka- provide an keep the officially thing is because of the problem of Tayyip Erdogan in a telephone call ra. Turkish parliament’s approval to alternative recognised Libyan Cyprus,” the official said. “that foreign interference is compli- deploy troops in Libya only added gas source government, The division of the island cating the situation in Libya,” White to such tensions. for energy- with which it has sparked Turkish claims that Greece House spokesman Hogan Gidley Turkey’s actions sparked warn- hungry Eu- reached the and the Greek republic of Cyprus said in a statement. ings by the United States and Russia, rope, which is maritime bor- ignore the interests of Turkish Russia is also concerned over Tur- as well as by Egypt. largely depend- der agree- Cypriots in exploiting gas resourc- key’s plan to send troops to Libya. “Escalation is probable in the ent on supplies ment that es nearby. Ankara is also irked that Leonid Slutsky, chairman of the Eastern Med,” Halil Karaveli, author from Russia and effectively regional countries prefer to build State Duma Committee on Interna- of “Why Turkey is Authoritarian,” the Caucasus the costly underwater pipeline to tional Affairs, said military interven- said by e-mail. “Turkey may decide region. ship gas to Europe instead of using tion is certainly not the best option to formally annex northern Cyprus. Karaveli said a pipeline network on the Turkish to resolve the crisis in Libya. Egypt, Building a naval base there is also Turkey’s plan to mainland. which, like Russia, backs Haftar in being considered.” get involved Ankara has raised the stakes with Libya, condemned the vote in Tur- Turkey’s parliament voted Janu- in the Libyan recent moves to explore waters con- key’s parliament. ary 2 to send troops to Libya after conflict mili- trolled by Cyprus and Greece. The In a Tv address, January 3, Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sar- tarily was de- two EU members are particularly Haftar called on Libyans to bear raj’s internationally recognised Gov- signed to cre- disturbed Turkey sent warship- arms, “men and women, soldiers ernment of National Accord (GNA) ate pressure on escorted drill ships into waters and civilians, to defend our land requested support. The GNA is fend- its neighbours Westward ambitions. Turkish lawmaker of the where Cyprus has exclusive eco- and our honour” against Turkish ing off an offensive by Field-Marshal in the Eastern opposition Workers’ Party Erkan Bas shows a map nomic rights. “colonisers”. Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Mediterranean. of divided Libya before a parliamentary vote to Turkey’s plan to send troops send Turkish troops to Libya, January 2. (AFP) Army (LNA), which is attempting to “It is precisely and fighters to Libya drives up P3,6,9,13,15-16 2 January 5, 2020 Top news Iran’s risky brinkmanship led straight to US unprecedented action

The Arab Weekly staff in Kirkuk in late December or when Kata’ib Hezbollah supporters sur- rounded the US Embassy in Baghdad London following a US retaliatory strike that killed 25 of its militia members. he killing of Iranian Major- US Secretary of Defence Mark Es- General Qassem Soleimani, per on January 2 alluded to a break- who oversaw Tehran’s inter- ing point after the Kirkuk attack say- T ventionist strategy through ing that “the game had changed.” the use of proxies, revealed the lim- The United States became con- its of the brinkmanship that under- vinced that, in its hubris, Iran be- pinned Iran’s strategy. lieved it could get away with even A January 3 air strike near Baghdad more serious provocations. US Sec- International Airport killed Soleima- retary of State Mike Pompeo told ni, head of Iran’s elite al-Quds Force, CNN that Soleimani “was actively and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy plotting in the region to take actions, commander of Iran-backed militias the ‘big action,’ as he described it, in Iraq known as the Popular Mobi- that would have put dozens if not lisation Forces. hundreds of American lives at risk. The Pentagon said the “US mili- We know it was imminent. This was tary has taken decisive defensive ac- an intelligence-based assessment tion to protect US personnel abroad that drove our decision-making pro- by killing Qassem Soleimani” on di- cess.” rect order from US President Donald It was a US assessment that the Trump. role Soleimani was expanding in Syr- “A precision drone strike hit two ia and Iraq and was clearly a source vehicles at Baghdad airport,” a US of additional threats to US interests. defence official said. US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman The US Embassy in Baghdad urged General Mark Milley said the United all American citizens to leave Iraq. States had “compelling” information New image. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on Iran, in Palm Beach, Florida, January 3. (AP) Besides of the high-profile target of imminent threats from Soleima- and the timing of the attack, the ni’s plans that were deemed larger in the Associated Press. He said Trump cision will be to de-escalate, to take 3,000 more soldiers to the region. operation apparently ran counter to “size, scale, scope” than in the past. restored America’s power to deter actions consistent with what normal That is in addition to about 700 sol- what many experts expected from If US officials did not act, “we would attacks by reinforcing the image of nations do and, in the event that diers from the 82nd Airborne who the Trump administration, which be culpably negligent,” he said. himself as a “crazy guy.” they do not, in the event they go the recently deployed to Kuwait after was seen as trying to appease Iran on “Is there risk? Damn right there is Soleimani’s death grabbed the at- other direction, I know that Presi- the storming of the US Embassy the eve of an election season. risk,” Milley said. “The risk of inac- tention of the deeply polarised US dent Trump and the entire United compound in Baghdad by Iran- Behind the cover of plausible tion exceeded the risk of action.” political scene. “Wow — the price of States government [are] prepared to backed militiamen. deniability, Tehran had escaped For Trump, the action projected killing and injuring Americans has respond appropriately.’’ Iran said after the killing of Soleim- responsibility for its suspected in- an image of toughness, a reputation- just gone up drastically,” US Senator Experts expect the next phase of ani that it had chosen its mode of re- volvement in attacks by using prox- al shift that could help him domesti- Lindsey Graham posted on Twitter. the showdown to be more conven- taliation. All scenarios are, however, ies, even when its culpability was cally in an election year. However, US Vice-President Joe tional warfare, even if Tehran choos- uncertain. Iran must also weigh the almost beyond doubt, such as the The risk inherent in the strike, its Biden, who is seeking the Democrat- es to spur its proxies to commit acts risks of US counter-retaliation. attacks on Saudi oil installations last unprecedented target and timing ic Party’s nomination to run against of terrorism. “War? Chaos? Limited reprisals? September. added a new psychological twist in Trump, said: “President Trump The United States ordered more Nothing? Nobody really knows — Tehran did not seem to expect the the US showdown against Iran. “I just tossed a stick of dynamite than 14,000 additional troops to neither in the region [nor] in Wash- United States to change course from think the Iranians are shocked now,” into a tinderbox.” the Middle East as reinforcements. ington — because this is unprece- military restraint even when a US Yoel Guzansky, an expert on Iran at Pompeo told Fox News that he Washington, which previously an- dented,” Kim Ghattas of the Carnegie contractor was killed in an Iraqi mi- the Institute for National Strategic hoped Iranian officials would “see nounced 500 troops to be deployed, Endowment for International Peace litia rocket attack on a US-Iraqi base Studies, a Tel Aviv think-tank, told American resolve and that their de- said January 3 it is sending nearly told Agence -Presse. Tehran Iran’s regional network of names new al-Quds Force proxies developed by Soleimani The Arab Weekly staff are ostensibly under the authority Houthis in Yemen of Iraq’s prime minister, the PMF’s Yemen’s Shia rebels, known as commander leaders are politically aligned with Houthis, swept from the north and London Iran. captured Sana’a, toppling the inter- The Arab Weekly staff In recent months, militia leaders nationally recognised government in ajor-General Qassem said US troops should leave, threat- 2014. A Saudi-led coalition entered Soleimani, commander of ening to expel them by force. the conflict on the side of the govern- ranian Brigadier-General Iran’s Islamic Revolution- ment the following year. Esmail Qaani has been an- M ary Guard Corps’ al-Quds Lebanon’s Hezbollah Western countries and UN experts nounced as the replacement Force who was killed January 3 in a The militia was established by accused Tehran of providing arms for I for Major-General Qassem US air strike near Baghdad’s airport, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard the rebels. That includes missiles the Soleimani to lead the Islamic was instrumental in developing Corps during Lebanon’s civil war in Houthis have fired into Saudi Arabia. Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Ideologically committed to Iran’s network of proxies for nearly the 1980s. It extends Iran’s armed The Houthis have given up little al-Quds Force. his clerical bosses. Newly two decades. clout to Israel’s doorstep. ground since the coalition entered The appointment, announced appointed head of al-Quds He cultivated the loyalty of tens of Hezbollah was formed to com- the war and have targeted Riyadh (Reuters) by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Force Esmail Qaani. thousands of fighters in Iraq, Syria, bat Israel following its invasion of with missiles. They claimed respon- Khamenei, was made January 3, Lebanon, Yemen and the Gaza Strip Lebanon in 1982. It waged an 18-year sibility for a drone attack that shut less than a day after Soleimani, fought in the Iran-Iraq war and who received aid, arms and train- guerrilla war against Israeli forces, down a major oil pipeline in Saudi 62, was killed in a US attack near was a close aide to Soleimani. ing from Tehran. Iran has used such making them withdraw from Leba- Arabia, which responded with air Baghdad International Airport. He was involved in suppressing groups to strike its foes and carry out non in 2000. Six years later, it bat- strikes on Yemen’s rebel-held capital. Qaani, also 62, was described the 1992 protests and riots that its aggressive agenda. tled Israel to a bloody stalemate in a by Khamenei as one of the “most rocked in north-east- Here’s a look at Tehran’s allied month-long war. Palestinian groups in Gaza decorated commanders” of the ern Iran after authorities tried to proxies in the Middle East: Hezbollah has an arsenal of tens Iran has long supported Palestin- Islamic Revolutionary Guard demolish homes built without of thousands of rockets and mis- ian militant groups, including Gaza’s Corps (IRGC) during the 1980-88 permits in a squatter area on the Militias in Iraq siles that can reach deep into Israel, Hamas rulers and the smaller Islamic Iran-Iraq war. city’s periphery. The groups include Asa’ib Ahl al- as well as thousands of highly dis- Jihad group. “The orders for (al-Quds) force Qaani also served as an intelli- Haq, Kata’ib Hezbollah and the Badr ciplined and battle-hardened fight- Hamas fell out with Iran after the remain exactly as they were gence official in the IRGC. Organisation, all led by men with ers. Hezbollah has fought alongside 2011 “Arab spring” uprisings, losing during the leadership of martyr Qaani was one of the key fig- close ties to Soleimani. government forces in Syria for more millions of dollars in monthly assis- Soleimani,” Khamenei said in a ures in Iran’s involvement in the The leader of Kata’ib Hezbollah, than six years gaining battlefield ex- tance, but Tehran is said to have con- statement. “I call on the mem- Syrian civil war. Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, was also perience and expanding its reach. tinued military support for Hamas’s bers of the force to be present and While Soleimani was known for killed in the January 3 strike. In Lebanon, the group’s power armed wing. cooperate with General Qaani attending to security concerns in The United States said Kata’ib Hez- exceeds that of the regular armed Tensions have run high in Gaza and wish him divine prosperity, countries such as Iraq, Syria and bollah was responsible for a rocket forces. It is also part of a political al- since Israel’s targeted killing of an acceptance and guidance.” Lebanon, Qaani has been the IR- attack on an Iraqi military base in liance that leads the government and Islamic Jihad commander in Decem- Qaani is seen as uncharismatic GC’s figure dealing with al-Quds December that killed a US contrac- parliament. ber, which set off a 2-day fight. and with a less distinguished activities in , Paki- tor. US retaliatory air strikes killed 25 Hezbollah has lost hundreds of Hamas is in a severe financial cri- military record compared with stan and central Asia. Kata’ib Hezbollah fighters. fighters in Syria, exacting a heavy toll sis and appears to get most of its aid Soleimani but his battlefield ex- In 2012, the US Treasury De- The militias fall under the um- on the Shia community from which from , making it less likely that perience, network within the partment imposed sanctions brella of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation it draws most of its support. it would rally to Tehran’s side in a re- IRGC and history of association on Qaani for his involvement in Forces (PMF), mostly Shia militias Hezbollah’s power and its links to gional conflict. Islamic Jihad, smart- with Khamenei led to the ap- smuggling weapons and money incorporated into Iraq’s armed forces Iran have been challenged by Leba- ing from the recent fighting, could be pointment. transfers to terrorist organisa- in 2016. They number more than non’s anti-corruption demonstra- keen to join in a regional conflict. Born in Bojnord in North Kho- tions, including Hezbollah in 140,000 fighters and while they tors. (With news agencies.) rasan province in 1957, Qaani Lebanon. January 5, 2020 3 Top news

Turkish involvement ushers in new New phase of foreign interference in Libya government formed Michel Cousins cusing Ankara of wanting to “regain control of Libya,” which had been a province of the Ottoman Empire. in Algeria Tunis If Turkish forces deploy in sup- port of the GNA, the LNA could be he approval by the Turkish forced to withdraw. However, the The Arab Weekly staff parliament of the deploy- situation threatens to draw in Egypt, ment of the Turkish Army to not to mention other earlier backers Tunis T Libya added a ripple in the on the two sides, including Qatar, for ever-expanding circle of interna- the GNA and Saudi Arabia and more lgerian President Abdel- tional interference in North Africa. recently Russia, for Haftar. madjid Tebboune an- The Libyan crisis has been both an With their plans to construct the nounced a 39-member internal conflict and a regional proxy $7 billion EastMed gas pipeline seri- A cabinet lineup, three struggle but as a relatively low-risk ously challenged by the GNA-Turkey weeks after he won a controversial conflict. As long as the Islamic State EEZ agreement, Greece, Cyprus and election. was contained, migrant levels re- Israel have taken an open stand Tebboune was elected December duced and events did not seriously against both Ankara and, effectively, 12 in a vote in which official turnout undermine their security, most for- the GNA. They warned of “dire con- was announced at 39.9%. eign governments seemed prepared sequences” for the region because of Tebboune filled four of five key to live with it. Ankara’s approval of Turkish troops posts with people who figured in a However, the conflict is fast devel- in Libya. reshuffled administration unveiled oping into the most serious crisis fac- “It marks a dangerous escala- two days before long-time Algerian ing the region in 40 years. Not since tion of the conflict and a signifi- President Abdelaziz Bouteflika was 1979, when Egypt and Israel signed a cant deterioration of the situation,” forced out. peace agreement has there been such said Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos will keep a bitter divide. No longer a case of re- Mitsotakis, Israeli Prime Minister the Foreign Ministry portfolio gional supporters covertly supplying Binyamin Netanyahu and Cypriot and Kamel Beldjoud, a previ- either side with equipment, intelli- President Nicos Anastasiades in a ous housing minister who be- gence, funding, mercenaries and air statement January 2. came interim interior minister in strike capacity, the Libyan conflict is Even before the Turkish parlia- December, remains as interior min- going overtly international, with ma- ment vote, dividing lines were ap- ister. jor risks to regional peace. pearing. Furious over the GNA-Turk- Belkacem Zeghmati continues as Following the recognition by the ish EEZ agreement, Athens threw its justice minister while Mohamed besieged Government of National support behind Haftar, expelling the Arkab retains the energy portfolio Accord (GNA) in Tripoli of Turkey’s GNA’s ambassador and sending For- tory in Tripoli would not be welcome Turkish forces sent to Tripoli would in a country with significant hy- controversial claim to a large part eign Minister Nikos Dendias to Beng- news in . be primarily involved in training and drocarbons. Abderrahmane Raouya of the Eastern Mediterranean as its hazi for talks with Haftar. Athens said nothing about any al- advising GNA fighters. was named finance minister, hav- exclusive economic zone (EEZ), the That was followed by LNA reports liances but Egyptian President Abdel However, paying mercenaries ing held the post from 2017 through approval by Turkey’s parliament for that Athens and Cairo agreed to Haf- Fattah al-Sisi again said he would to go to Tripoli would not require early 2019. Turkish forces to be sent to fight the tar’s proposal of a naval alliance in never abandon the LNA. He warned a Turkish act of parliament. As for Five women were appointed to advancing Libyan National Army the Eastern Mediterranean. against foreign attempts “to control” Turkish military specialists, they government positions. (LNA), led by Field-Marshal Khalifa Turkish President Recep Tayyip Libya, a statement clearly directed at have been in western Libya for sev- Tebboune named 65-year-old Ab- Haftar, could change the situation Erdogan made an unannounced visit Turkey. eral months. delaziz Djerad, who holds a doctor- dramatically. to Tunis to discuss Libya with Tuni- That was before the Turkish parlia- It is unclear how effective either ate in political science and served Haftar seems to be readying for sia President Kais Saied. That was ment gave Erdogan authority to send Moscow or Washington can be in as foreign minister from 2001-03, new phase of the war against a for- followed by a claim by GNA Interior troops to Libya. Everything now de- turning down the heat. US President became prime minister on Decem- eign “coloniser,” now that Turkey is Minister Fathi Bashagha that an alli- pends on what Erdogan does next. Donald Trump warned Erdogan in a ber 28. directly involved. ance had been formed including the There were suggestions from telephone conversation that sending Authorities released 76 detainees “We accept the challenge and de- GNA, Turkey, Tunisia and Algeria. “If Turkish officials that, rather than de- troops would create instability in the in January, including a prominent clare jihad and a call to arms,” said Tripoli falls, Tunis and Algiers will in ploying troops, Turkey would move region. Erdogan, though, has shown opposition activist. Those released Haftar in a televised address January turn fall,” he claimed. to counterbalance the LNA’s reliance himself capable of ignoring Trump included Lakhdar Bouregaa, a vet- 3. He called on “all Libyans” to bear The Tunisian government, how- on Russian, Sudanese and Chadian even when the US president threat- eran of the 1960s war of independ- arms, “men and women, soldiers and ever, denied any such alliance while “mercenaries” by sending “merce- ens to cripple the Turkish economy. ence. Dozens of others have been civilians, to defend our land and our Algeria said nothing about any pact. naries” of its own, mainly combat- freed in recent days. honour.” He said the new phase of Although it has been wary of Egyp- ants, including Islamic militants, Michel Cousins is a contributor to the war is of “facing a coloniser,” ac- tian influence in Libya, a Haftar vic- from Syria. It was also suggested that The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues. (With news agencies.) Turkey and Russia face ‘clash of interests’ in upcoming talks

Thomas Seibert in Libya not just politically but Both sides are trying to contain also militarily. Russia sent merce- the fallout from their differences in naries in an undeclared mission to Syria. Erdogan used the run-up to Istanbul boost Haftar’s march on Tripoli. the summit with Putin to warn of a Just days before Putin’s visit, the rising number of refugees moving onflicting interests of Rus- Turkish parliament approved a towards the Turkish border from sia and Turkey in Libya are possible Turkish troop deployment the Syrian province of Idlib. expected to take centre to Libya. Turkey has sent military With winter worsening an esca- C stage when Russian Presi- equipment, including drones, to lating crisis, the United Nations dent visits Turkey, reinforce the GNA. said some 284,000 people had fled the first foreign trip by the Russian Gerhard Mangott, professor of their homes as of December 31. Up leader in the new year. international relations at the Uni- to 3 million people live in Idlib, the The official reason for the visit versity of Innsbruck in Austria and last rebel-held area in Syria’s nearly January 8 is the inauguration of the an expert on Russia, said the Libya 9-year civil war. TurkStream project, an underwa- issue was expected to play a central “Right now, 200,000 to 250,000 ter pipeline through the Black Sea role in discussions between Putin migrants are moving towards our On collision course? Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) listens from Russia to Turkey that is to de- and Erdogan. borders,” Erdogan said January 2 to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a meeting in liver Russian natural gas to Europe. “Russia and Turkey have found during a conference in Ankara. “We Sochi, last October. (Reuters) After the handshakes, smiles and an arrangement in Syria but there are trying to prevent them with speeches, Putin and Turkish Presi- could be a clash of interests in some measures but it’s not easy. It’s while Turkey was quietly accepting tem. Erdogan said Turkey would dent Recep Tayyip Erdogan will get Libya,” Mangott said by telephone. difficult. They are humans, too.” stronger military activities by Syr- retaliate against any punitive US down to business. Russia and Tur- He added it was “not realistic” for Towns have been pounded by ian President Bashar Assad’s ally sanction. key have developed a close rela- Erdogan to expect Putin to change Russian jets and Syrian artillery Russia in Idilb. Turkey is also embroiled in a row tionship despite diverging policies his mind about Russia’s support for since a renewed government as- The TurkStream project is likely with Greece, Cyprus, Israel and in Syria, a development that has Haftar. sault in December, despite a deal to further cement the Russian- Egypt about exploitation of natural seen NATO country Turkey buying Turkey’s decision to send troops agreed to in September by Putin Turkish partnership. It has two gas fields under the seabed in the a Russian missile defence system, to Libya to help the Tripoli govern- and Erdogan to ease tensions. pipelines with a total capacity of Eastern Mediterranean. Ankara ac- much to the anger of its Western ment against Haftar could lead to Mangott said the Turkish leader’s 31.5 billion cubic metres. Turkey cuses the other countries of exclud- allies. a confrontation between Turkish comments on Idlib were primarily is to receive 15.75 billion cubic me- ing Turkey from the gas bonanza Now the Putin-Erdogan bro- soldiers and Russian mercenaries meant for domestic consumption tres, Turkey’s Anadolu news agen- and of violating the rights of Turks mance faces new challenges. They or special forces. and as assurance for Turkey-backed cy reported. The second line will on the divided island of Cyprus. are backing opposing forces in the “It is hardly conceivable that rebels in Idlib, not as a warning to carry 15.75 billion cubic metres of Mangott said Erdogan could not Libyan conflict, with Russia sup- Moscow would accept Turkish Russia. gas from Turkey to Europe. expect strong public support by porting Field-Marshal Khalifa Haf- soldiers shooting at Russians” in “I don’t think Erdogan is serious The pipeline contributes to grow- Russia for Ankara’s actions in the tar’s Libyan National Army and Libya, Mangott said. However, the about that,” Mangott said. He said ing problems in relations between region but, as Moscow regards the Turkey helping Prime Minister issue was unlikely to destroy the there were signs for a “strategic Turkey and the United States. The EastMed pipeline project as poten- Fayez al-Sarraj’s internationally partnership between the two coun- exchange of interests” between US Congress moved to impose tial competition for TurkStream, recognised Government of Nation- tries, he added. The relationship Ankara and Moscow that had Rus- sanctions on Turkey over Turk- “Russia is rather happy” about the al Accord (GNA). was “too important strategically” sia tolerating Turkey’s latest in- Stream and over Ankara’s purchase confrontation between Turkey and Russia and Turkey are involved for both sides. tervention in north-eastern Syria of the Russian S-400 defence sys- its neighbours, he said. 4 January 5, 2020 Top news

Fugitive Lebanese tycoon seeks haven in country gripped by turmoil

Samar Kadi in Lebanon, which means it would accept Lebanese jurisdiction. In that case, he could stand trial in Beirut Lebanese courts.” The French-Lebanese vehicle ormer Nissan CEO Carlos mogul was charged on several Ghosn, who stunned the counts of financial misconduct, world by fleeing to Leba- which he has repeatedly denied. F non from Japan where he The circumstances of his escape was held under tight house arrest from Japan remain unclear. He dis- pending trial on financial miscon- closed his arrival in Lebanon in a duct charges, could stand trial in statement in which he said he was Lebanon after an Interpol arrest not escaping trial but “a rigged Jap- warrant was issued for him. anese justice system where guilt is The Interpol Red Notice, which presumed, discrimination is ram- calls on authorities to arrest a pant and basic human rights are wanted person, was received by denied.” Lebanon’s internal security forces but had not yet been referred to the Activists see Ghosn’s return Tremendous challenges. Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab gives a statement following meeting judiciary. to Beirut as yet another (AFP) with outgoing Prime Minister Saad Hariri in Beirut, December 20. Ghosn, a Lebanese national who manifestation of impunity also holds Brazilian and French by the super-rich. citizenships, is unlikely to be ex- tradited to Japan, said lawyer Mo- Ghosn was reportedly distressed After Soleimani slaying, Hezbollah hammad Farid Mattar. by the conditions of his house ar- “Usually when there is an inter- rest granted on a $14 million bail on national arrest warrant, the fugitive two separate releases. He was not may want politicians in government or the suspect is either extradited allowed to speak to his wife and or arrested by the local authorities family and his access to internet but Lebanon does not extradite its communication was largely cur- Samar Kadi Diab, a little-known former edu- needed financial aid, he said, add- citizens to foreign states and there tailed. cation minister and professor at the ing: “Potential donors, notably the is no extradition treaty between His lead Japanese lawyer Junichi- American University of Beirut, was Americans and the French, are not Lebanon and Japan,” Mattar said. ro Hironaka said he was stunned Beirut nominated to replace Prime Minister happy with the way the government It was not clear if Ghosn would that Ghosn had jumped bail and Saad Hariri, who resigned October is being formed. The mentality of be summoned for questioning over that lawyers held three passports ebanese Prime Minister-des- 29, two weeks into unprecedented sharing the seats among partisans is the warrant. Lebanese authorities belonging to him. Japanese pub- ignate Hassan Diab’s efforts anti-government protests over years still guiding the government line-up said Ghosn entered the country le- lic broadcaster NHK revealed that to form a government re- of corruption and poor governance. even if new faces or names are ap- gally using his French passport and the Japanese authorities allowed L gained momentum after the Diab is supported by Hezbol- pointed. They won’t go for cosmetic Lebanese identification. He arrived Ghosn to carry a spare French pass- holiday break and are reportedly fo- lah and its allies, the Shia Amal change.” in Beirut December 31 on a private port in a locked case while on bail. cused on clearing the final hurdles Movement and Lebanese President Mounayar cautioned that Leba- jet via Istanbul. In Lebanon people take special delaying the announcement. Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Move- non will be heading towards ex- “He could enter Lebanon be- pride in auto-industry icon Ghosn, “The new administration should ment. Diab’s appointment was, tremely difficult times caused by a cause there was no international who is credited with leading a see the light within two to three however, rejected by his own Sunni worsening financial and banking cri- arrest warrant is- spectacular turnaround at Nissan days,” said political observer John- community led by Hariri’s Future sis, which a Diab government would sued against beginning in the late 1990s, and ny Mounayar. “Any further delay Movement, the Christian Lebanese probably not be able to survive. him yet. who rescued the company from would mean that disagreement is Forces and Phalange Parties and the “This would be compounded However, near bankruptcy. persisting over names and reparti- Druze Progressive Socialist Party. by rising regional tensions as Iran he could When he was arrested in No- tion of portfolios of supposedly in- Diab’s potential administration would be looking to avenge Soleim- have his vember 2018, many dismissed dependent experts, and this would will face tremendous challenges ani’s death through proxies in Iraq, passport charges brought against him as “a complicate the creation of the as- even if it wins a vote of confidence, Syria and maybe Lebanon,” he said. confiscat- conspiracy” by Japanese firm Nis- pired government of technocrats.” which can be secured by Hezbollah’s Hezbollah Secretary-General Has- ed now,” san. A public campaign was even Mounayar said that, after the kill- bloc and allies in parliament. san Nasrallah has already called for Mattar launched in his defence under the ing in a US strike of Iranian Major- “With no Sunni backing, no Druze “avenging” Soleimani’s death said. “Japan slogan “We are all Carlos Ghosn.” General Qassem Soleimani, the backing and no support from two “Meting out the appropriate pun- can always The mood has since changed powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah Christian parties and a portion of the ishment to these criminal assas- file a lawsuit and, weeks into an unprecedented might no longer accept to have mere Shia community who are with the sins… will be the responsibility and against wave of protests against cor- technocrats in the government but protest movement, such an admin- task of all resistance fighters world- Ghosn ruption and nepotism in might insist on being represented by istration will not be able to intro- wide. We who stayed by his side will Lebanon, activists leading politicians instead. duce necessary financial measures follow in his footsteps and strive day see his return “We might end up having a pro- and harsh reforms to deal with the and night to accomplish his goals,” to Beirut as yet vocative government of politicians economic crisis,” Mounayar said. Nasrallah said in a statement. another mani- who represent one camp, namely A Diab government would also Tycoon turned fugitive. Former Nissan festation of Hezbollah and its allies,” Mounayar be unlikely to convince Western Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly Chairman Carlos Ghosn leaves Tokyo’s impunity by the (AP) said. and Arab donors to disburse badly Travel and Society section editor. Detention Centre, last April. super-rich. New Israeli gas supplies despite ‘cold peace’ with Jordan, Egypt

The Arab Weekly staff makes our sovereignty hostage and The Jordanian government said Jordan, which has a peace treaty European market. the energy sector in the hands of the that securing stable energy prices with Israel, pushed through the The discovery of Leviathan in Zionist occupation,” said the Islamic for the next decade can achieve deal despite opposition by politi- 2010 helped turn Israel into a poten- London Action Front, a Muslim-Brother- savings of at least $500 million an- cians and many deputies in parlia- tial energy exporter. The Leviathan hood affiliated opposition party. nually and help reduce a chronic ment who said it makes the king- partners have signed multibillion- exas company Noble En- A pipeline that goes to northern budget deficit. Jordan imports dom dependent on its neighbour for dollar export deals with Egypt to be- ergy has begun pumping Jordan distributes gas to the coun- about 95% of its energy needs with energy. gin importing Israeli gas this month. Israeli natural gas to Jordan try’s power plants for electricity demand for electricity that rises The government in Amman has Delek Drilling and Noble Energy T on an “experimental” basis. generation. 6-7% annually. kept quiet over the deal in the face struck a $15 billion, 10-year deal last Although the deal will ease Jor- of public opinion and a vocal parlia- year with Egypt’s Dolphinus to sup- dan’s budget deficit, it is expected mentary opposition that demands ply 64 billion cubic metres. to face political opposition in the the agreement be cancelled. Israel’s Leviathan field started kingdom despite a peace treaty Authorities said this is an agree- pumping gas December 31 in what with Israel. ment between companies rather the operating consortium called “a The supplies, from Israel’s larg- than governments and denies that historic turning point in the history est offshore natural gas field Le- Washington pressured Amman not of the Israeli economy.” A statement viathan, began for a 3-month test to give in to public pressure. from Israeli partners Noble, Delek period outlined in a $10 billion deal Activists said they plan protests and Ratio said: “For the first time in Jordan’s National Electricity Com- after several were staged in recent its history, Israel is to become a sig- pany struck with Noble Energy in years as part of a movement that nificant natural gas exporter.” 2016, the state-owned power utility opposes attempts to normalise ties It would be the first time Cairo, company said in a statement. with Israel. which in 1979 became the first Arab Under the agreement, the US-Is- The amount of gas extracted from country to sign a peace accord with raeli consortium will supply Jordan Leviathan is expected to reach 60 Israel, imported gas from its neigh- with gas for 15 years. The deal has billion cubic metres (bcm) over 15 bour although energy cooperation faced opposition in Jordan, where years. The nearby Tamar field will with Israel has been controversial in many view Israel as an enemy de- export 25.3 bcm in the same period. Egypt. spite a peace treaty between the The value of the exports is estimat- Israel had bought gas from Egypt kingdom and the Jewish state. Ac- ed at $19.5 billion. but land sections of a gas pipeline tivists and parliamentarians have Besides bringing energy inde- were targeted by jihadists in Sinai in lobbied to scrap the purchase. pendence, Israel hopes its gas re- 2011 and 2012. “It’s a black day in the history of serves will enable it to strengthen Jordan and a crime against the na- Murky waters. A platform in the Leviathan natural gas field in the strategic ties in the region and help (With Reuters and tion and a national catastrophe that Mediterranean Sea off the Israeli coast. (AP) forge new ones, with an eye on the Agence France-Presse.) January 5, 2020 5 Top news

Arms race between Morocco and Algeria intensifies

Saad Guerraoui deal, raising further doubts about the Algerian defence website’s re- port. Casablanca The National Interest, a US maga- zine, reported that the Su-57 was he arms race between Mo- not ready for export because devel- rocco and Algeria is esca- opment of the fighter was slowed lating amid deteriorating by lack of funding and the collapse T ties between the two North of Russia’s co-development and African countries despite Rabat’s production deal with India. calls to ease tensions. Russian Army Chief of Staff and Algiers reportedly signed con- First Deputy Defence Minister Gen- tracts with Moscow to acquire 42 eral Valery Gerasimov said in De- Sukhoi fighter jets. The Algerian Air cember that the Su-57 was under- Force signed contracts for 14 Su-34 going flight tests. An Su-57 crashed bombers and 14 Su-35 fighters. An December 24 in Russia’s Far East option for two other squadrons of during a test. 14 aircraft for each type was signed The reports came nine months to compensate for the natural with- after the United States approved a drawal of aircraft from the air force $3.8 billion sale of Block 70/72 F-16 fleet in the future, Algerian defence fighter jets, equipped with state- website Menadefense.net stated. of-the-art electronic systems and Algeria signed another contract weaponry, to Morocco in addition to acquire 14 Su-57 stealth fight- to the modernisation of 23 F-16s ers, the first customer to which already part of the Moroccan Air the Russian aircraft manufacturer Force for $983 million. will export such jets, the website Morocco was the largest Middle reported. The contract should be East and North Africa region cus- concluded by 2025. tomer for US arms in 2019, report- ed Forbes magazine. Washington agreed to arms deals with Rabat The US Department of State Crowded skies. Russian Air Force Sukhoi Su-57 fifth-generation fighter jets perform during the worth some $10.3 billion last year MAKS-2019 International Aviation and Space Show in Zhukovsky, outside Moscow, last August. (AP) announced in November Morocco is among 22 countries that it approved a possible that are to acquire Advanced Medi- multibillion-dollar sale of um-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AM- sale of AH-64E Apaches, the world’s the foreign policy and national secu- “violating their dignity.” AH-64E Apaches and related RAAM) from the Raytheon Missile most advanced multi-role combat rity of the United States by helping Algeria closed its border with Mo- equipment to Morocco. Systems Company in a contract helicopters, and related equipment, to improve the security of a major rocco in 1994 after Rabat accused worth $768 million and which is to including advanced Hellfire and non-NATO ally that is an important Algerian intelligence services of The Algerian military plans to de- be completed by February 2023, the Stinger missiles, to Morocco. force for political stability and eco- complicity in the deadly attack on ploy two squadrons of Su-30MKA US Department of Defence said. “The $4.25 billion sale of 36 nomic progress in North Africa,” the Atlas Asni hotel in Marrakech. jets and one squadron each of Su- “The contract provides for the Apache helicopters would also in- said the DSCA. Tebboune’s declaration dashed 57s, Su-35s and Mig-29M2s. There production of the AMRAAM mis- clude 551 new and optional AGM- Moroccan arms expert Abder- hopes for improved relations after are also plans for two squadrons of siles, captive air training missiles, 114R Hellfire missiles and 200 AIM- rahmane Mekkaoui told news site Moroccan King Mohammed VI’s modernised Su-24s and one Su-34 guidance sections, AMRAAM te- 92H Stinger missiles, as well as 558 Le360.ma that the US arms sale to called for “the opening of a new squadron for the bomber fleet. lemetry system, spares and other Advanced Precision Kill Weapon Morocco advances the interests of page in relations between the two Military experts expressed scep- production engineering support System (APKWS) kits and myriad both Rabat and Washington. neighbouring countries, based on ticism over Algeria’s acquisition of hardware,” the department in a related equipment, support, train- Algerian President Abdelmad- mutual trust and constructive dia- the Su-57, saying the radar-evading news release December 27. ing and logistics,” said the US De- jid Tebboune insisted that Alge- logue.” jet has not completed flight testing The US Department of State an- fence Security Cooperation Agency ria would not open its borders and lacks key systems. No Russian nounced in November that it ap- (DSCA) in a news release. with Morocco unless Rabat apolo- Saad Guerraoui is a contributor to official has confirmed the reported proved a possible multibillion-dollar “This proposed sale will support gised to the Algerian people for The Arab Weekly on Maghreb issues. Palestinian Fatah African migrants allege marks 55 years mistreatment in North Africa in West Bank, Gaza The Arab Weekly staff haran African countries said their under the nose of the United Na- migration experience, after several tions, often in compounds that re- The Arab Weekly staff factions battled one another in years spent in Tunisia, was “a fail- ceive millions of dollars in aid. This Gaza, leading to the Hamas takeo- Tunis ure,” while 41% described the expe- was in addition to reports of disap- ver of the coastal strip. rience as “successful.” pearances from detention centres, London The peace process with Israel orth African countries have Among those questioned about with migrants allegedly sold to traf- halted more than a decade ago, long been a refuge for sub- their medium-term goals, 54% ex- fickers or sent to other centres. housands of supporters leaving the Fatah-led Palestinian Saharan migrants trying pressed a desire to leave for Europe In Libya, abuses generally go un- of Palestinian President Authority with limited control over N to escape war or poverty. and 42% expressed a preference punished amid the chaos in the Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah parts of the occupied West Bank but However, the streets of Cairo, Tunis to return to their country of origin. country. In Tunisia and Egypt, how- T movement, which rivals little hope of soon achieving an in- or Tripoli can turn dangerous, with Only 2% said they preferred to settle ever, there were signs the two coun- Gaza’s ruling Islamist Hamas, gath- dependent state. racist harassment and violence. in Tunisia. tries were starting to recognise and ered in the enclave to mark Fatah’s Israel annexed East Jerusalem in While Europe has been wrestling censure racist crimes. 55th anniversary. 1967, a move not recognised by the with racist violence, North African In November, a video showing Waving yellow Fatah flags, sup- international community. countries, with complex situations Egypt hosts more than 6 three Egyptian teenagers bullying porters from across the territory Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin including their own illegal emigra- million migrants, more than South Sudanese schoolboy John gathered January 1 in Gaza City to Netanyahu recently vowed to an- tion problems, have made only half of them from Sudan and Manuth triggered a public outcry. celebrate the movement founded nex large parts of the West Bank, small steps in addressing the issue. South Sudan. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al- by Yasser Arafat. which would make it virtually im- For some migrants, Egypt, Libya Sisi later hosted Manuth at a youth The Interior Ministry in Gaza possible to establish a viable Pales- and Tunisia are the closest and easi- The study stated that 48.3% of forum and made a rare high-level granted permission for the rally, tinian state. est countries for them to enter. For respondents said it is necessary to acknowledgement of the problem. an unidentified Hamas official told The Palestinian Authority wants others, the countries are a point of review the legal status of migrants. “They are our guests and negative Agence France-Presse. the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East transit before attempting the Medi- Respondents called on Tunisia treatment is not acceptable and not Jerusalem to form a future state terranean crossing to Europe. to allow African migrants to ben- allowed,” Sisi said. alongside Israel. The International Organisation efit from work opportunities in the Abbas’s popularity and, by In 2018, a court sentenced to No Palestinian elections, apart for Migration said Egypt hosts more country, defend their rights, facili- seven years in prison a man who extension, Fatah’s has from local polls, have taken place than 6 million migrants, more than tate the acquirement of residence was known to harass refugees and plunged in recent years as since 2006 but Abbas recently half of them from Sudan and South permit and revise social security who beat to death a South Suda- Abbas has been unable to pushed for a vote. Hamas called Sudan, where simmering conflicts laws, in a way that would simplify nese teacher who had worked in a achieve an independent for a presidential decree setting the displace tens of thousands of people procedures to obtain Tunisian na- community-run school for refugees state or heal the rift with election date but Abbas said he first annually. tionality for migrants’ children born in Cairo. Hamas. wants Israel to guarantee that the At least two dozen sub-Saharan in the country and allow foreigners In Tunisia, the Elimination of All vote can take place in East Jerusa- Africans, including four children, in to open bank accounts. Forms of Racial Discrimination Act “We consented to having these lem. Cairo told the Associated Press they In Libya, a country plagued by was adopted in October 2018, with festivities on Al-Wehda Street for “We will not accept elections have endured racist insults, sexual corruption and caught in civil war, penalties ranging from 1-3 months Fatah to champion the unity of the without Jerusalem and without our harassment or other abuses in the the picture looks gloomier for Afri- in prison for racist language and 1-3 Palestinian people. It’s a referen- people… Jerusalem is the capital of past three months. can migrants. A report by the Asso- years for inciting hatred, dissemi- dum on the public support for Fa- our state and it is not up for sale or The children said they have had ciated Press said millions of dollars nating ideas about racial superiority tah and the leadership of Abu Ma- negotiation,” Abbas said in a speech rocks and trash thrown at them from the European Union had been or supporting a racist organisation zen,” he said, using Abbas’s nom de broadcast at the rally. as they go to or from school. One diverted to networks of militiamen, or activity. guerre. Abbas’s popularity and, by exten- Ethiopian woman said neighbours traffickers and Coast Guard mem- The law, which created a National Hundreds of Palestinians also sion, Fatah’s following has plunged pound on the windows of her fam- bers who allegedly exploit migrants. Instance against Racial Discrimina- marched through the West Bank in recent years as Abbas has been ily’s home, yelling “slaves” before The report said UN officials knew tion to present an annual report to city of Ramallah to mark the found- unable to achieve an independent disappearing. militia networks were getting the the parliament, commits the state to ing of the Fatah movement. state or heal the rift with Hamas. A study last year by the Tunisian money. undertake awareness and training Fatah has long vied with Hamas Many Palestinians accuse the Pal- Forum for Economic and Social The report revealed torture, ex- campaigns. for leadership of the Palestinian estinian Authority of rampant cor- Rights indicated that 50% of im- tortion and other abuse for ransom national struggle. In 2007, the two ruption. migrant respondents from sub-Sa- in migrant detention centres and (With news agencies.) 6 January 5, 2020 Opinion

Editorial Hoping for peace in 2020 he Arab world welcomes another new year amid old wars refusing to end and new conflicts rearing their head on the horizon. The killing of Iranian Major-Gen- eral Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s point Tman in Iraq, and top Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis may usher in a new phase of confrontation and violence that could spin out of control. The January 3 missile attack that killed Soleimani and Muhandis dramatically signals the failure of Iran’s strategy, which involves the use of regional proxies to inflict maximum damage on its neighbours and the United States while remaining shielded from direct fallout by the convenient cover of deniability. “Plausible deniability has gone out the window,” said Ramzy Mardini, a researcher at the US Institute of Peace. The attack, which is likely to spark a new cycle of threats, retaliation and counter retaliation, could change the rules of engage- © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly ment in the US-Iran showdown. It does not, however, alter the fundamentals. Iran’s aggressive designs and radical ideology have spurred bellicose policies that have been The death of arrogance at the root of much of the insecurity and instability in the region. Tehran’s encroachment and its use of local Rashid al-Khayyun proxies there have been at the root of much instability in Iraq, which was already a tinder- A critical and shameful chapter in Iraq’s modern history has ended and box. the forces of good in embattled Iraq are breathing a sigh of relief. With the tragic legacy of the US-led 2003 invasion of Iraq in the background, Iran’s uppose I told you that sacred figure because he was the bullies, it was because they had unfettered interference has meant the prolif- what killed Qassem right hand of the deputy of all- Soleimani’s backing. Maliki was eration of surrogate militias outside the control Soleimani and Abu powerful Khamenei. crass enough to publicly declare of the state. Tehran might try to drag proxies Mahdi al-Muhandis It was generally assumed that “We won’t let go,” meaning that into the confrontation not just in Iraq but also was the assassination Iran had a strong presence in he and his pro-Iran cohorts would in Syria, Yemen and Lebanon. of 600 Iraqis protesting Iraq because of the fear-inspiring never hand over power. In a US election year, the Trump administra- Sin the 2019 Iraqi demonstrations presence of Soleimani and Mu- In short, in Iraq, Soleimani was tion is divided between its avoidance of war and the amazing continuation of handis, his local deputy who had the master of the house, not the and the need to stand up to Iran’s provocations. those demonstrations. become a key deciding figure in guest. During elections, he would Now the stakes are even higher. How? Iraq. not leave the Green Zone until he Turkey is another Middle East country whose Well, the protests in Iraq were With their disappearance, that made sure the results were to his policies are a concern. Its regional ambitions, among reasons Soleimani moved image of a tough Iran was shaken liking. It was public knowledge economic interests as well as affinities with with the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades to the core. Iran, with its claws that he had a home and an office Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated groups are to attack the US base in Iraq, planted in the flesh of more than inside the Green Zone, from which driving Ankara towards intervening militarily prompting the Americans to one country, appears puny and he issued orders and decisions in oil-rich Libya and risking the transformation strike back and kill the leaders of is paying dearly for the stones it Even though quite different of the civil strife there into an all-out regional those brigades. threw at the US Embassy. from the Zarqawi character, it had war. It was also why Soleimani di- With Soleimani’s myth gone, still become urgent for Iraqis to get With the January 2 vote by Turkish parlia- rectly and personally ordered the Iran will need decades to create rid of the sinister character that ment authorising such an intervention, Ankara attack against the US Embassy in another of the same kind. Soleimani had become. His demise will prepare for its direct involvement in Libya Baghdad. Naturally, reporting of Soleimani was part of the was a necessary consequence of after having already dispatched there hundreds those events has been blocked Islamic Revolution since its his vanity and evil practices. If of militants and mercenaries from Syria. Risks the past two days. birth and was one of the military there is a terrifying number of of widening conflict in Libya are compounded Soleimani played in Iraq the figures who had believed they rogue militias in Iraq, it is because by Ankara’s clash over maritime natural gas same role Abu Musab al-Zarqawi could occupy Iraq during the of him. resources in the Mediterranean. played when the Islamic State Iraq-Iran war. With Khamenei, No wonder Iraqis have started Raising that alarm, French newspaper Le (ISIS) was alive and well — but he represented the opposing witnessing celebrations of the Monde stated that “a geopolitical disaster is with some differences. current to Hashemi Rafsanjani memories of terrorists such as unfolding at the southern shores of Europe,” Zarqawi had nothing to do and kept the war going until Imad Mughniyeh and that no noting that Turkish President Recep Tayyip with the Iraqi government, with 1993 in the hope of seizing the Iraqi official dared respond to the Erdogan “is combining his authoritarian drift which he disagreed ideologically. holy Shia city of Karbala. He was multiple insults heaped on Iraq by with an expansionist temptation in the Eastern He deliberately made a public behind countless assassinations, Iranian leaders. Mediterranean.” display of the brutality of his to the point that some political Nobody dared respond to Escalation of the conflict puts Libya on the fighters, a brutality that became analysts called him “minister Iranian President Hassan Rohani brink of further bloodshed, human suffering the foundation of the rule of ISIS of the Iranian colonies,” the when he said: “Our influence is in and internal division. Libya’s neighbours fear a in Mosul. militias-dominated enclaves in Iraq.” No Iraqi official dared ask replay of 2011 when turmoil in the vast Soleimani had done something Afghanistan, Yemen, Lebanon, “What influence are you talking Maghrebi country, which turned into a huge vaguely similar. He publicly and Iraq and Syria. about when there is an independ- open-air arms depot and a battlefield for defiantly roamed unchallenged At first, Soleimani’s name was ent state in Iraq?” various armed militias, triggered tremors all over Iraq and his figure and shrouded in mystery, surrounded No one dared respond to that across the Sahel and North Africa. Today, name sent shivers down the by prestige and terror. When Iranian general who declared that militant groups, as well as human trafficking spines of Iraqis. news agencies reported his pres- “Baghdad is the capital of our gangs, roam the Libyan landscape and cross the However, those who first ence in Iraq or Syria, Iran and its empire.” Everybody was terrified country’s porous borders, north and south. broke the shackles of that terror proxies would usually deny the of Soleimani. Considering the damage incurred by the were the Karbala demonstrators reports. Then, the Iraqi govern- This dubious character had to go region as a result of endless wars, especially in when they burned pictures of ment had to reveal his function one day or the other. He had oc- Syria and Iraq, 2020 should be the year of a Islamic Republic founder Ayatol- in Iraq. He was an adviser on ter- cupied Iraq with dozens of rogue more constructive focus on reconstruction. lah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iranian rorism for the Iraqi government. militias and his latest action was to Unfortunately, that is not likely to happen. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Wow! A leading terrorist who put into action plans to eliminate Many parts of the Arab region have been Khamenei and Soleimani and becomes an adviser on terrorism. the popular demonstrations in the blessed with natural riches. In many cases, threw shoes at the pictures. It is hard to believe that none centre and south of the country, those resources have been a magnet for exter- We should not think that such of the Iraqi officials could exer- those that broke Iran’s back nal competition and likely will continue being acts of defiance and disgust cise their prerogatives before because they represented a Shia so. would be easy for Tehran to swal- their political blocs had pledged rebellion against Iran. Even if the regional picture is not totally low. Iran has been using terror allegiance to Iran in Soleimani’s A critical and shameful chapter bleak, as a few of the region’s countries have and fear to plant its roots in Iraq court. in Iraq’s modern history has ended used oil wealth as an accelerator of social devel- but, when those feelings were When popular sentiment in the and the forces of good in embat- opment, that huge potential of natural riches challenged, the price was the Shia community in Iraq turned tled Iraq are breathing a sigh of and human resources has all too often been pure and simple assassination of against Iran, Soleimani started relief. squandered by mismanagement and corrup- the demonstrators. arranging Iranian affairs within The tables of terror have been tion. The inability of governments to inspire Soleimani made and unmade the Iraqi Sunni community; Iraqi turned on the rogue militias, for it trust and create adequate opportunities for governments in Iraq and im- clerics started speaking of Hajji would be difficult to imagine that their youth could be the source of further posed ministers and presidents. Soleimani as a saviour. their leaders Hadi al-Amiri, Falih upheaval. The dysfunctional systems provide No minister could be appointed Soleimani even created admir- Alfayyadh and Qais al-Khazali are extremists and their sponsors with opportuni- unless approved by Soleimani. ers in the Christian community, not overwhelmed with the fear ties to exploit. He was the new British high com- let alone being sanctified by the of meeting the same fate as their The Arab region needs 2020 to be a year of missioner of yore during the era Popular Mobilisation Forces. leaders and buddies, Soleimani peace and smooth progress instead. The region of the British Empire or the ap- On the wall of the US Embassy and Muhandis. It was high time for needs both badly but, at this stage, turbulence pointed “Vali” of Iraq under the in Baghdad, the militias wrote: arrogance to end. is more likely. Ottoman and Safavid empires. “Qassem Soleimani is my leader.” Happy new year. Within the inner circles of If Nuri al-Maliki and Falih Al- Rashid al-Khayyun is an Iraqi Iranian power, Soleimani was a fayyadh were able to become real writer. January 5, 2020 7 Opinion Why the Lebanese revolution may yet work Published by Al Arab Claude Salhani Publishing House

The peaceful approach of Lebanese protesters placed the government in a corner Publisher because authorities don’t know how they will emerge from this crisis. and Group Executive Editor Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD he upheaval in Leba- the top three government posts in Syria when demonstrators not only in the Middle East Editor-in-Chief non is unprecedent- in Lebanon are the president, began demanding a say in the but in Europe, Asia and in the ed in many ways, the prime minister and the way they were governed. Americas. Oussama Romdhani leaving authorities speaker of parliament. Follow- For nearly three months, the Despite the political, religious in a complex situa- ing the National Pact, reached Lebanese revolutionaries con- and other differences that Managing Editor tion and not know- by the country’s sectarian tinued their struggle to bring divide the people of Lebanon Ting how to respond. leaders when Lebanon became about the much-needed change and despite the recent history Iman Zayat What makes Lebanon’s independent from France, the in the way the country was gov- of severe violence, the populace Deputy Managing Editor revolution different from other distribution of power would erned. Their peaceful approach demonstrated its unity as one attempts at revolting against a be: a Maronite Christian at the placed the government in a people with one goal. That has and Online Editor sitting government is the choice presidency, a Sunni Muslim as corner because authorities don’t remained constant and despite Mamoon Alabbasi of its participants to remain prime minister and a Shia Mus- know how they will emerge repeated efforts by various fac- peaceful. lim as a speaker. from this crisis. tions to sow dissent and guide Look at the major revolutions Rather than unify the coun- One observer called it a “les- this honourable movement into Senior Editor of the past 350 years starting try, the system allowed external son in statesmanship,” adding: disarray. John Hendel with the American Revolution, powers to push their interests “The Lebanese revolutionaries Those aiming to disrupt the the French Revolution, the Rus- rather than for the good of have remained steadfast about Lebanese revolution have no sian Revolution and the Iranian Lebanon. An example is Iran’s their demands, steadfast about shame and no place in society. Chief Copy Editor Revolution. The attempts to support of Hezbollah. maintaining peaceful conduct History will remember them Richard Pretorius force political changes in Syria, Iranian authorities did not and steadfast about their unity and future generations will Iran and Iraq and all the above need much prodding before and perseverance in this fight.” learn of those who were on Copy Editors mentioned were very violent. reacting to peaceful demonstra- Indeed, this approach to a the side of what is right and of Stephen Quillen The demonstrations that erupt- tions with violence. Similarly, peaceful revolution is a first, those who chose to support cor- Kyle Arensdorf ed in Iran last year, which don’t ruption and sell their integrity really qualify as a revolution, to foreign interests. resulted in, opposition sources The Lebanese authorities, Gulf Section Editor said, about 1,500 people killed. principally the president, had Mohammed Alkhereiji Governments, especially hoped the demonstrators those in the Middle East, know would, with time and winter Society and Travel how to deal with violence; approaching, grow tired and the Sections Editor what they don’t know is how to demonstrations would end. Samar Kadi address non-violent protests. Mr President, if you have an This non-violent movement, ounce of decency left in you, Senior Correspondents of a novelty for the area, has listen to the shouts from the been the brilliance of Lebanon’s streets. As a former officer of Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) revolution. the armed forces, show that the Thomas Seibert (Istanbul) The people of Lebanon — call oath you took to defend Leba- them the revolutionaries, if non means something. Open Regular Columnists you will — are fed up with the the doors of your palace and Rashmee Roshan Lall political structure, starting with listen to the calls from those Claude Salhani the sectarian-based system in you swore to defend. There is which cabinet ministers are ap- still time to act. History will Yavuz Baydar pointed not due to their level of recall your actions. education, academic record or Correspondents achievements but rather accord- Claude Salhani is a regular ing to religious affiliation. columnist for The Arab Weekly Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) Most high-level government Peaceful yet defiant. Anti-government protesters chant slogans as they and a senior fellow at the Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) jobs are reserved exclusively for hold clenched fists with an Arabic word that reads “Lebanon” during the Institute of World Affairs in certain religions. For example, New Year’s celebrations in Martyrs’ Square in Beirut, January 1. (AP) Washington. Roua Khlifi (Tunis)

Chief Designer Marwen el-Hmedi United States is absent from discussion Designers of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict Ibrahim Ben Bechir Hanen Jebali Rashmee Roshan Lall The US foothold in the region is clearly in decline but it is on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that its shrunken influence is most apparent. Contact editor at: [email protected] alk around China had their first joint naval to build in 2002 to seal off East his day job — as a guide on what Jerusalem exercises in the Gulf of Oman, Jerusalem from the West Bank. Marizian calls “a geopolitical and the pres- a stretch of ocean traditionally In Jerusalem, Orthodox tour” of the old city — that illus- ence of the dominated by the US Navy’s Rabbi Shlomo Dov Rosen said a trates the desperate intensity region’s last 5th Fleet. wall cannot be a permanent so- of efforts to prevent historical Al Arab Publishing House indigenous The US foothold in the region lution and human engagement narratives from subsuming the Quadrant Building Wimperial power is unmistak- is clearly in decline but it is on is the only way forward. “It’s present and the future. 177-179 Hammersmith Road able. There is the 16th-century the Palestinian-Israeli conflict not impossible that the most Marizian works alongside an London W6 8BS wall, of course, built by Otto- that its shrunken influence is meaningful story of our life is Israeli Jewish guide, with each man Sultan Suleiman around most apparent. Speak to Israelis about how we fit into the lives giving tourists their own per- the old city. There is First — both Jews and Arabs — or to of others,” he said. spective on places and events. Station, a converted railway Palestinians in East Jerusalem In Galilee, Reform Rabbi Or The idea is to provide space Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 station that is one of many and the West Bank and the talk Zohar said, there are remark- for alternative views, he said, Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 structures from the 400 years is of indigenous, rather than able examples of engagement and the hope is to foster some of Palestine’s Ottoman era. foreign-led, peace initiatives. between Jews and Arabs. Ha- understanding of both sides. These traces of Ottoman rule The United States is absent rarit village, where Zohar has This is uplifting in all sorts of have a particular poignancy as from the discussion — its invis- worked for seven years, is part ways but not for Palestinians US Publisher: 2020 begins. The pendulum ibility as striking as its former of the Misgav Regional Council, such as Hamoud Abul Hawa. of power is swinging wildly prominence as a supposed hon- which has 29 Jewish and six In his mid-50s, Abul Hawa has The Arab Weekly USA LLC. and the Western dominance of est broker. The worldview of Arab villages, a Jewish mayor lived in East Jerusalem all his [email protected] and an Arab deputy mayor. the Middle East over the past US President Donald Trump’s life and witnessed Israeli con- [email protected] century may be ending. administration features only “There is an understand- trol tighten to a stranglehold. Consider the following: On in the oblique but wholesale ing that we need to develop He said he has no hope that Tel: 248-679-6624 the last day of 2019, the US Em- rejection of it. together, that we have shared his statelessness and that of bassy in Baghdad was besieged In Bethlehem, Sheik Rafaat, a economic and environmen- his people will be resolved by by supporters of pro-Iran Iraqi cleric from Nablus, insisted to a tal concerns,” Zohar told me, Palestinian leaders and Arab militia groups. ​The Trump mixed community of Palestin- “there are grass-roots initia- countries. “Mahmoud Abbas is administration responded with ian Muslims and Christians tives that enable Jewish and bad,” he said of the president bullish rhetoric — and the de- that “we have different faiths Arab families to meet monthly. of the Palestinian Authority, ployment of an additional 750 but we have to be one unit.” In Many collaborations are hap- “as are they all — Saeb Erekat, Subscription & Advertising: troops to the region — but there Nazareth, the Reverend Hanna pening on the local level.” Hanan Ashrawi, (Saudi Crown [email protected] was an unmistakable sense of Kildani, a Jordanian priest who Another example of grass- Prince Mohammed bin Salman Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 the United States losing control serves as the Latin patriarchal roots efforts to build bridges bin Abdulaziz). The wars over of both the regional narrative vicar for Israel, declared: “We of trust and understanding is water will be fought and the and the plot. need to stop building walls be- Musalaha, a non-profit organi- apocalypse is coming. That will Mohamed Al Mufti On January 2, Turkey’s tween people and build bridges sation in Jerusalem that runs be our moment.” Marketing & Advertising parliament debated a bill instead.” programmes to promote rec- Manager that sought permission to It was a resounding critique onciliation between Muslims, Rashmee Roshan Lall is a deploy troops in Libya, where both of Trump’s advocacy of a Jews and Christians. Malkon columnist for The Arab Weekly. Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 it is allied with the country’s wall between the United States Marizian, a Palestinian Chris- Her blog can be found at www.alarab.co.uk UN-backed government. On and Mexico as well as the sepa- tian from East Jerusalem, vol- www.rashmee.com and she is December 27, Russia, Iran and ration barrier that Israel started unteers with Musalaha but it is on Twitter: @rashmeerl. 8 January 5, 2020 News & Analysis Iraq What Iraqis wish for 2020 Azhar Al-Rubaie citizens to be treated with respect. “I will be more than happy if we were ruled by a government that Basra offers equal rights and respects its people; a government that is loyal 019 has ended and still Ira- to our country, not to any other qis in Baghdad and south- countries,” he said. ern provinces are taking For Noor Awad, a 28-year-old 2 to the streets demanding resident of Basra, peace was the wide-scale political changes and priority. getting rid of external interven- “Of course, my first wish is for tion, notably Iran. peace to spread in Iraq and all over At least 450 people have been the world,” she said. “Iraqis have killed and more than 25,000 in- suffered from wars for decades: jured since anti-government pro- the Iraq-Iran war in the 1980s, tests began October 1. the Gulf War and sanctions in Parliament failed to nominate a the 1990s, the US-led invasion of suitable candidate to replace care- 2003, the rise of the Islamic State taker Prime Minister Adel Abdul- and its occupation of a third of Mahdi, who resigned in December Iraqi territory in 2014.” following pressure from Grand For 2020, Awad said she wished Fed up with foreign meddling. Iraqi anti-government protesters burn an Iranian flag during protests in Ayatollah Ali Sistani. that “my sons would feel safe and Baghdad. (AP) The names suggested by the never see any weapons, whether current political parties to replace in television or in reality.” Abdul-Mahdi were rejected by Mohammed al-Alwan, a wishes for 2020 is long. “I hope Basra to try all their seafood for from our body or affect continu- protesters. 24-year-old from Basra, also said we will get many things in the new the first time in my life. I hope I ity of the demonstrations. We will he does not like the sight of weap- year, including peace, freedom of won’t be asked about my ethnic- keep holding the streets to get the ons, especially those carried by expression, jobs, infrastructure, ity, religion, tribe or even which government we want. I think it is Many of Iraqis’ wishes for Iran-backed militiamen. clean water supply and continu- party I voted for the last time,” the best news I heard in 2020. the new year were political. “I do not have personal wishes, ous electricity,” he said. added Khalil. “I am so happy after hearing of all I would like to see is Iraq re- “I want a political class that Hayder Muhi, a 20-year-old the killing of Soleimani. He called The turn of the year witnessed covered and that the country has comes from the people and who from the multi-ethnic city of us ‘vandalised protesters.’ Any- the US Embassy in Baghdad com- no armed groups,” said Alwan. “I knows very well our needs, listens Kirkuk, said he hoped the country one who killed the peaceful pro- ing under attack by supporters want all those who were arrested to what we say and cares about would be united. testers, I hope his fate will be like of pro-Iran militias protesting US or jailed to be released and the us,” he added. “We want a united country, not Soleimani’s fate.” air strikes targeting Al-Hashed al- government to name the protest- Diyar Mohammed Khalil, a a divided one, from the south “They [Iran-backed militias] Shaabi. ers’ killers and punish them, not 24-year-old Kurdish man from Su- to the north,” said Muhi. “I wish carried all kinds of weapons to kill Iraqis welcomed the new year, to forget their justice.” laymaniyah, said he wanted Iraq happiness to all the Iraqi people, us, while we were only holding the as did other people around the Zahraa Hani, a rights activist to be secure and stable so he could I do not want to see anyone killed, Iraqi flag,” Raad added. “Soleima- world, with fireworks. However, from Najaf, said she wished for tour the country. wounded or living in poverty. I ni is from Iran, why was he killed many of their wishes for the new Iraq to be a place where peace and “I wish that I could just visit all hope to see joy not sorrow, smiles in Baghdad? I never agreed to use year were political. prosperity prevail. “My wishes my country’s cities and proudly not tears.” Iraq as a battle zone for the United Safaa Ghali, a photographer in are not different than those of check in those places in my so- Iraqis in Baghdad and southern States and Iran. If they want to Basra, said he hoped in 2020 that any other Iraqi, we wish to live cial media apps. I would head to provinces celebrated Iranian Ma- fight, they have to battle on their the government would “meet the in peace, which we have been Baghdad, then continue south, jor-General Qassem Soleimani’s lands, not on ours.” demands of the protesters.” “The deprived of for decades. We wish stopping at the historical places death. Many Iraqis blame Soleim- biggest wish I have is having a our country would have in 2020 a in Babel, and later go to the Ahwar ani for what has happened in Iraq Azhar Al-Rubaie is a freelance new, good government that will suitable government and patriotic (marshes) and enjoy a peaceful and some say he was the “secret journalist based in Iraq. His rebuild what the current govern- politicians that give us our basic day doing a boat tour and having president” of Iraq. writing focuses on politics, ment destroyed,” he said. rights,” she said. great tea, looking at the stars,” Mohammed Raad, a 35-year-old health, society, wars and human Ahmed Sadiq, a 30-year-old For Mahmoud Abdulwahhab, said Khalil. protester from Basra, said: “Kill- rights. Follow him on Twitter: from Basra, said he wanted Iraqi a resident of Diyala, the list of “I would continue the trip to ing Soleimani did not move a hair @AzherRubaie.

Viewpoint US limited strikes fail to deter Iran’s terror proxies in Iraq

Before a look at how those However, although Pompeo The reason Iran’s proxies were infrastructure that supplies a events began, it is important to told UN Secretary-General so confident in striking at US large percentage of the world’s Tallha know that these were not Iraqi Antonio Guterres the US strikes interests is simply because of energy requirements was at- Abdulrazaq “protesters,” as erroneously re- were “aimed at deterring Iran and how American foreign policy has tacked last summer by Houthi ported by many news outlets. protecting American lives,” the played out the past several years. extremists backed by Iran, Wash- Real Iraqi protesters have been Iranians and their proxies did not Many in the Middle East were ington did very little. out on the streets of Baghdad and seem to care and attacked the US hopeful after Donald Trump’s When a US military drone was many other cities across Iraq call- Embassy. electoral victory in 2016 that shot down by Iran over interna- he United States ing for an overhaul of their cor- What the incident demon- the US president would finally tional waters in the Arabian Gulf, barely managed to rupt political system and for the strates is a profound lack of stand up to the Iranians rather Trump allegedly ordered a strike avoid a repeat of the Iranian presence in Iraq to end. respect for American power and than try to appease them. While against Islamic Revolutionary 1979 US Embassy in Each time they neared the threatened to undermine Ameri- Trump has ramped up economic Guard Corps targets but pulled Tehran debacle led heavily fortified Green Zone that can will to wield that power. It sanctions and tore up the failed back because he thought the loss by forces loyal to Is- houses the United States’ and also demonstrates Iran’s deep Iran nuclear deal, he has done of lives was disproportionate to Tlamic Republic founder Ayatollah other embassies, they would be influence over the Iraqi security very little to protect American al- the loss of a drone. Ruhollah Khomeini but collected fired upon, with many killed. The apparatus and how its proxies lies in the region until he wiped This sent a message that the a significant Iranian scalp in retal- Shia jihadists who attacked the were undeterred by the US air Soleimani off the board. United States may retaliate iation in what is likely to remain US Embassy January 31 are the strikes. When Saudi Arabia’s vital oil against peripheral targets deep the defining moment of 2020. same people who have been re- in the Iraqi and In iconic scenes, the US Embas- peatedly highlighted as perpetrat- but would not risk an all-out sy in Baghdad was stormed and ing human rights abuses against confrontation with Iran’s proxies fires set by pro-Iran militants who actual Iraqi protesters acting or Iran itself. smashed windows, broke security under the direction of the IRGC The White House needed cameras and chanted “Death to and Soleimani. to decide how valuable is its America!” as they attacked the Back to how this happened: prestige as the world’s foremost largest American foreign mis- the United States retaliated to re- power. sion in the world. Within days of peated Iran-orchestrated attacks The repeated provocations the siege being lifted, the United and, on December 29, bombed and the attack on the US Em- States responded in decisive bases housing pro-Iran Kata’ib bassy made that decision easy manner, ordering a drone strike Hezbollah militia members. This for Trump, who definitively re- on Islamic Revolutionary Guard came after Kata’ib Hezbollah established American deterrence Corps (IRGC) commander Qassem launched a rocket attack on De- by killing the most violent mass Soleimani, killing him and several cember 27 against a military base murderer in the Middle East. other ranking Iranian and Iraqi housing Americans near Kirkuk Washington was aware that Rus- Shia jihadists. in northern Iraq. sia and China waiting for signs The Kata’ib Hezbollah attack of weakness but Trump showed led to the death of an American strength and established that The White House contractor and the wounding US red lines are very much to be of several US service members, considered real. needed to decide how drawing Washington’s ire. US valuable is its prestige Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Tallha Abdulrazaq is a research- promised a “decisive response” er at the University of Exeter’s as the world’s that killed at least 25 Shia jihad- Now what? Iraqi counterterrorism forces stand guard in front of the Strategy and Security Institute in foremost power. ists. US Embassy in Baghdad, January 2. (AFP) England. January 5, 2020 9 News & Analysis Syria Erdogan’s Libya manoeuvres could affect Syrian conflict

Sami Moubayed Khalifa Haftar, who announced plans to overrun Tripoli last April, saying that Sarraj was backed by Is- Beirut lamic militants and is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. nternet videos have gone vi- Relations between Haftar and Er- ral purportedly showing Syr- dogan have been strained, after the ian fighters carrying arms on former suspended flights to Turkey I the streets of Tripoli, report- and accused Erdogan of sending edly sent there by Turkish President arms to Sarraj, in violation of a UN Recep Tayyip Erdogan to support arms embargo. the government of Prime Minister Haftar loyalists also accused Er- Fayez al-Sarraj — at Sarraj’s request. dogan of sending mercenaries, Their accents were clearly Syrian shipped from Idlib, Afrin and the and the streets were clearly Libyan, Aleppo countryside. It is not en- giving credence to the videos. tirely clear who those are Sarraj denied the claims, insist- but many say they are a combina- ing that the footage was shot in the tion of the Sultan Murad Division, north-western Syrian city of Idlib, the Sham Legion and the Free Syr- not in Libya. ian Army, who are all on Turkish The videos still need verification, payroll. said Omer Ozkizilcik, an analyst at The Sham Legion’s connections Ankara think-tank the SETA Foun- to the outlawed Syrian branch of dation. “A possible deployment the Brotherhood is well known, could have significant effects, es- although it tried to distance itself pecially against Egypt-supplied from the Brotherhood in 2014, hop- Military jihad. Syrian Turkey-backed fighters pose for a picture with the remains of a downed regime armoured vehicles, if the Syrian ing to get money and arms from warplane near the town of Khan Sheikhun in southern Idlib, last August. (AFP) fighters are supplied with anti-tank Gulf countries. guided missiles. The Syrians are one The groups’ mission would cer- of the best, if not the best, anti-tank tainly become easier if they are This may seem difficult since he they toppled Libyan leader Muam- which is what Sarraj had asked for, operators in the world,” he said. propped up with Turkish soldiers, and Russian President Vladimir mar Qaddafi. or are they there to stay for many The Syrian fighters, well-trained now that Erdogan has requested Putin are supporting rival forces, The deployment also raises ques- years, like the thousands of foreign in guerrilla warfare, have been on a 1-year mandate from the Turk- with the Russian leader putting his tions about what will happen in fighters who started arriving in Syr- the front lines for almost an entire ish parliament to send troops full weight behind Haftar. Howev- Idlib, where the fighters have been ia in mid-2012? decade and they are deeply indoc- to Libya. er, that is an exact replica of Syria, based after being relocated from Finally, will this prompt Damas- trinated in military jihad. In one Ultimately, he hopes to create a where Erdogan supports the armed various parts of Syria. That city is an cus to provide Haftar with logisti- video, one of them says he went to no-fly zone over Tripoli, similar to opposition and Putin backs Syrian open war zone, as they are still fight- cal or intelligence support now that Libya to “defend Islam and uphold what he envisioned for Syria five President Bashar Assad. ing the Russian and Syrian armies. they technically are fighting the its banner.” years ago and finally achieved — In a remarkable twist, what’s hap- Depending on how one looks at same enemy, only on a different ter- Jihadists see through artificial only on truncated geography — last pening now in Libya is a reversal of it, this might either mean a Turkish ritory? borders, after all, and say their bat- October. what happened in Syria in 2011. abandonment of Idlib or an unspo- Syria has been neutral towards tle for Islam bestrides countries and To make it happen, however, he At the time, Abdel Hakim Belhadj, ken agreement with Russia that no Haftar, neither condemning his continents. needs to impose himself on the head of the Tripoli Military Council, final push will be made on the Syr- march on Tripoli nor supporting it. The Syrian Observatory for Hu- Libyan peace process, as he did in met with commanders from the ian province. man Rights said 1,600 Syrian fighters Syria through the Astana process, Free to send Libyan Additionally, how long will the Sami Moubayed is a Syrian had been handpicked for “the holy after teaming with his Russian and fighters to Syria to train their Syrian Syrian fighters stay in Libya? Is it historian and author of “Under the war” in Libya, against Field-Marshal Iranian counterparts. counterparts. That was shortly after a short mission to train and equip, Black Flag” (IB Tauris, 2015). Viewpoint Syria in 2030 will look a lot like 2010 but with one major difference — Opposition in exile

by 2025, once again become the Coalition as the legitimate Raised in Canada, Germany To be sure, governments — norm for many Syrians. However, government of Syria. The coali- and Sweden, where democratic and oppositions-in-exile — have Syria in the 2020s could basically tion had political clout in and civil society groups are a central poor records of success around Stephen Starr be a repeat of the 2000s. enjoyed military backing from fabric of the social contract, they the world and not all exiles will There may, however, be one many countries in the Gulf and will seek to undermine and sow be bothered to involve them- key development outside Syria’s the West. Meanwhile, around the discord in the Assad regime using selves in creating a democratic or Syria, the coming borders that could have major world, Syrian expats took to the methods that could prove far more future for Syria. decade will likely repercussions for the country’s streets to show support for the successful than those used by the However, well-organised bring many of the direction — the formation of a revolution and its democratic protesters and revolutionaries of opposition groups and leaders same challenges and robust, influential and highly cause. 2011. have had success in shaping difficulties it faced in motivated political opposition- However, internal squabbling, They will create and fund media and galvanising global opinion the years leading up to in-exile. huge injections of outside money organisations to influence the against anti-democratic govern- Fthe 2011 uprising. There are approximately 6.7 and competing egos killed the thinking of Syrians both overseas ments. For example, in 1986, Throughout much of the million Syrian refugees around political opposition. At the same and living under the Assad regime. exiled Benazir Bhutto returned 2000s, Syria was isolated from the world. More than 1 million time, Syrian expats marching in They will pressure governments to Pakistan and became prime the international community for are in countries such as Canada, London, Washington and Detroit around the world — and especially minister twice before her assas- refusing to support the 2003 oc- Germany, Sweden and the United in 2011 and 2012 had little real in the Gulf — to decrease or cut sination in 2007. cupation of Iraq and for its close States, where human rights and experience in the political field ties with the Assad regime because The Tibetan government-in- ties with Iran. The years ahead democratic governance are invio- or in corridors of power. Most they will have built up the nous exile remains a powerful lobby- are shaping up to look remark- lable pillars of everyday life. were medical doctors, academ- and experience to offer a better ing force in the West where it ably similar. For many young Syrians in ics or leading members of the alternative, whatever that may be. has high-profile celebrity sup- The local economy will likely those countries, it won’t be long clergy, leaders within their own Even for Syrian expats not di- port while drawing millions of see slight improvements as busi- before they question why they’ve local Syrian expat communities rectly involved in efforts to upend fundraising dollars to its cause. nesses and governments in the been denied the right to set foot but with little to no experience the Assad regime, the large pres- Israel’s lobby in the United Middle East slowly trickle back in their homeland. Some will in the fine arts of international ence of anti-Assad Syrians in coun- States is famous for wielding into the Syrian market. Access turn their attention to efforts lobbying, diplomacy or message tries such as Canada, Germany and huge influence in Middle East- to bank loans and credit will, to oust the Assad regime and shaping. the Netherlands will make them an ern affairs. establish a democratic state in its By 2030, however, exiled Syr- important voting bloc. Politicians Syria’s Western-based pro- place. ians being educated in Western in those countries will be forced to democracy movement could, If a single reason explains why schools and universities could cede to their demands if they want one day, achieve something Internal the Syrian revolution failed and prove to be a very different their votes. similar. That means that, for As- squabbling, huge Syrian President Bashar Assad proposition. They will be deeply Already, regime victims who sad, though, the war has ended injections of remains in power it is because affected by the vast destruction escaped Syria during the upris- and many more challenges lie the political opposition tragically and loss wrought by the war on ing are excelling in places such as down the road. outside money and failed to coalesce around a united their parents’ generation. Some Toronto, Canada. There, Syrians competing egos front. will seek to create a collaborative, graduating with degrees from top Stephen Starr is the author of By March 2013, more than 20 highly motivated and disciplined universities are stating in public “Revolt in Syria: Eye-Witness to killed the political major governments recognised opposition in Europe and North their goal to bring down the As- the Uprising” and has lived in opposition. the now-failed Syrian National America. sad regime. Syria and Turkey since 2007. 10 January 5, 2020 News & Analysis Gulf Saudi Arabia and UAE call for de-escalation after Soleimani killing

Mohammed Alkhereiji Mohammed bin Salman bin Ab- dulaziz discussed reducing tensions and what could be done to “maintain London peace and stability in the Middle East in this turbulent period,” an official ollowing the assassination statement said. of the commander of Iran’s UAE Minister of State for Foreign Islamic Revolutionary Guard Affairs Anwar Gargash called for F Corps’ al-Quds Force, officials “wisdom and moderation” rather from Saudi Arabia and the United than “confrontation and escalation.” Arab Emirates urged de-escalation of News of Soleimani’s death domi- tensions to avert further confronta- nated media attention in the Gulf tions. region where the general was per- A US air strike January 3 near ceived as a nemesis, nurturing Iran’s Baghdad International Airport killed hostile strategy based on the use of Iranian Major-General Qassem proxies. Soleimani and several of his Iraqi Most Gulf news outlets made and Lebanese military associates, Soleimani’s killing their most promi- including Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, nent articles. deputy chief of the Popular Mobili- “This was a huge blow to not only sation Forces in Iraq. The death of the revolutionary guards and Iran, Soleimani was said to eliminate the but their proxies as well,” Yemeni A call for moderation. UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash. (AP) architect behind Iran’s regional in- Information Under-Secretary Najib terventions. Ghallab said on Al Arabiya. However, with Tehran warning of Iran named Brigadier-General Saudi and UAE Twitter users Soleimani’s record of antagonism behalf of the recognised government “severe revenge” for Soleimani’s kill- Esmail Qaani as the new al-Quds marked the news with celebratory to Saudi Arabia is unparalleled. Dur- of Yemen against Iran-allied Houthi ing, there are fears in the Middle East leader. Ghallab said that move was to memes with pictures of Saudi Crown ing his time as al-Quds commander, rebels, al-Quds was instrumental in that Iranian retaliation might target lessen the blow of Soleimani’s death Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin the group was linked to numerous funding, arming and training the re- US interests or soft targets in the re- among supporters and to possibly Abdulaziz and Abu Dhabi Crown terror plots. bels’ military capabilities. gion. prepare for retaliation. Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Just before Soleimani took over al- Last September, Saudi and US of- Saudi state news agency SPA quot- “Iran does have the will or the ca- al-Nahyan. Quds, the force was implicated in the ficials blamed Iran for a drone and ed an official source as saying Saudi pabilities to retaliate directly but will Gulf Twitter users forwarded 1996 Khobar Towers bombing, which cruise missile attack on a Saudi Ara- Arabia had followed developments do so via its proxies,” Ghallab said. “I memes wishing US President Don- a US court said Iran and al-Quds Bri- mco oil facility, which cut produc- in Iraq “that came as a result of es- imagine in the coming period they ald Trump a happy new year. Other gade were responsible for. Al-Quds tion 50%. calation, tensions and terrorist acts” will focus their operations in Iraq to Tweets were macabre, including was also believed to be behind the A few hours after the Aramco at- and about whose repercussions Ri- impede protests there and in Yemen, some showing uncensored photos of failed 2011 assassination attempt on tack, Soleimani posted a video us- yadh had warned. The source ac- where it will hope to continue its pol- what was said to be Soleimani’s sev- the current Saudi Minister of State ing religious imagery to praise the knowledged threats faced in the re- icy of chaos.” ered hand. for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir, Houthi rebels as part of the Islamic gion but urged restraint to prevent Within an hour of the first news In an English tweet, Saudi user Eid who was the kingdom’s ambassador Republic’s “expanding” network of the “unbearable consequences” of of Soleimani’s death, the Arabic Al-Harbi wrote: “The #Iran regime is to the United States at the time. followers. further escalation. hashtag “The _Destruction _of _Qas- the Middle East cancer, killing #Qas- In Yemen, which sees an Arab coa- In a call with US Secretary of State sim _Soleimani” was trending heav- semSoleimani is like killing bin Lad- lition led by Saudi Arabia and the Mohammed Alkhereiji is the Gulf Mike Pompeo, Saudi Crown Prince ily. en. He was a terrorist.” United Arab Emirates fighting on section editor of The Arab Weekly. Saudi Arabia uses sports as lever for ‘soft power’

Diane Falconer and events is the , one of Anuj Chopra motor racing’s most gruelling ad- venture rallies, which is to take place in the kingdom January 5-17. Paris After more than a decade in South America, the rally is to remain in audi Arabia’s hosting of the the Arabian Peninsula for at least Dakar Rally in January is the five years. latest international sporting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed S event in the kingdom that is bin Salman bin Abdulaziz’s focus part of a multibillion-dollar push to on sports stems partly from an eco- boost its global image. nomic motive to lure international In recent months, Saudi Ara- tourists and boost domestic spend- bia, under fire over alleged human ing as the OPEC kingpin seeks to di- rights abuses, accelerated invest- versify its oil-reliant economy. ment in sports, mirroring a long- However, in a country where two- standing strategy adopted by the thirds of the population is under United Arab Emirates and Qatar. 30, critics say glitzy sporting events Saudi Arabia is using glitzy sport- are aimed at blunting public frus- ing extravaganzas as an instrument tration over an economic downturn of soft power in its push for region- and soaring youth unemployment. al influence as well as to project a Activists also accuse Saudi rulers of moderate image of a country long “sportswashing,” using such events seen as an exporter of jihadist ide- to soften their international image ology. after long being condemned over In 2019, the kingdom hosted a human rights abuses. heavyweight boxing match be- The killing of journalist Jamal tween Anthony Joshua and Andy Khashoggi in Istanbul in 2018, the Ruiz, a Formula E motor race and a Saudi-led military intervention in tennis exhibition. Women’s profes- Yemen and a sweeping crackdown Glitzy extravaganza. A man takes pictures of the participants’ vehicles outside the technical sional wrestling, somewhat toned on dissent have tarnished the king- verification area in the Saudi Red Sea port city of Jeddah, January 2. (AFP) down from its usual glitz, also made dom’s reputation. its debut in a country where such Saudi Arabia executed at least 187 events were once unthinkable. death row prisoners in 2019, a tally events such as the Dakar Rally to same way Tour de France serves reputation using large-scale events, based on official data indicated, the boost tourism, one of the centre- France.” with highly controlled environ- highest since 1995, when 195 peo- pieces of Vision 2030. Saudi Arabia “It will showcase the landscapes ments,” said Human Rights Watch. Saudi focus on sports ple were executed. began offering tourist visas for the and the heritage — the long shots “Fans and viewers need to look stems partly from an While Saudi women now have first time last September. and wide angles — as the kingdom past the glamour of these events.” economic motive to lure the right to drive, campaigners say The Dakar Rally, to be broadcast opens up to international tourists,” However, Dakar Rally organisers international tourists and jailed driving activists have faced in 190 countries, will pass through he said. have praised Saudi Arabia’s “will- boost domestic spending. sexual harassment and torture a host of sites — from NEOM, a $500 However, accusations of “sport- ingness to open up” amid unprec- while in detention. billion futuristic megacity under swashing” prompted some inter- edented social reforms after years In December, Cristiano Ronaldo “There is a very offensive policy construction, to the heritage site national players to shun the king- of conservatism. and his Juventus teammates took to host major sporting events… to of Al-Ula and the sand dunes of the dom. Golf superstars Tiger Woods Gomez said the response to the to the pitch at the King Saud Uni- spread a different image of Saudi vast Empty Quarter desert. and Rory McIlroy recently declined rally could help determine the ef- versity Stadium in Riyadh for the Arabia,” said Carole Gomez, a re- “The idea is to praise the beauty lucrative invitations to take part in fect of its sports push. Italian Super Cup. In January, a Bar- searcher at the Institute of Interna- of the landscapes, the infrastruc- a tournament organised in Saudi “It will be interesting to see how celona side featuring Lionel Messi tional and Strategic Relations. tures and to make a postcard of Arabia. McIlroy, who was report- the event plays out, how it is expe- is to participate in the Spanish Su- The kingdom is using “sports di- Saudi Arabia,” said Gomez. edly offered $2.5 million in appear- rienced, what the repercussions are per Cup, two months after the Ar- plomacy” as part of Crown Prince Quentin de Pimodan, an ex- ance fees, hinted in an interview and what happens afterward,” said gentine superstar played his first Mohammed’s Vision 2030 reform pert on the Sunni kingdom at the with Golf Channel that “morality” Gomez. match on Saudi soil in a friendly programme to diversify its econo- Research Institute for European influenced his decision. against Brazil. my, Gomez added. and American Studies, said the Saudi Arabia is attempting to (Agence France-Presse. Anuj However, one of the biggest Saudi officials said they expect rally “will serve Saudi Arabia the “sportswash away its abusive rights Chopra reported from in Riyadh.) January 5, 2020 11 News & Analysis Lebanon Interview The daunting task of fighting corruption in Lebanon

independent to head the the country and shuttering the Samar Kadi association in recent years. Lebanese economy. “We hope this day will renew “We have a national role in democracy within Lebanon’s defending public freedoms, Beirut institutions,” he said after human rights and any issue that defeating Nader Gaspard, who is raised by the civil society. ighting corruption that was backed by the Free Patriotic People are resorting to us to get permeates all public Movement, the Lebanese Forces, their rights. They feel that there sectors in Lebanon Future Movement and Progressive is a party that is there to listen to — including the Socialist Party. them and their problems and to judiciary — is a Stressing the vital role of try to find solutions,” Khalaf said. formidable task that the Beirut Bar Association in Effective separation of powers Fthe new president of the Beirut regaining public trust in the is what the state lacks to function Bar Association has vowed to judiciary, Khalaf said: “We will properly, he said. take on after a landslide victory mobilise and push forward “We have to safeguard the state against the candidate backed by through parliament for the and its institutions by reactivating political parties accused of introduction of reforms and democracy in our political system Enough is enough. Beirut Bar Association President Melhem Khalaf. rampant malfeasance. laws that would reinforce the through the separation of powers. (Courtesy of Melhem Khalaf) “Today the judiciary is in bad independence of the judiciary.” The parliament should reassume shape. The first thing we should “This is our aim — strong and its responsibility in monitoring do is to put an end to political independent judicial authorities the performance of the executive Political bickering has often role to renovate the pillars for the meddling and manipulation of free from any political influence.” authorities, the government stalled appointments to the body next 100 years for the sake of our the judiciary,” said Beirut Bar Lawyers, backed by the bar should stop being a small replica for several months, crippling the people. We will be reviewing our Association President Melhem association, have volunteered of parliament and the judiciary judiciary. bylaws, which were set a century Khalaf. “We need to have an to defend anti-government should be totally independent,” The judiciary has often been ago when the bar association had independent, honest and effective protesters who were arrested he said. smeared as being biased but 3,000 members whereas today we judiciary which is vital for fighting during demonstrations that have The pressing need for judicial Khalaf said he is against public count more than 13,000.” corruption. No nation can be built swept Lebanon since October 17. reform in Lebanon prompted slandering of the core institution Khalaf is co-founder of Offrejoie without justice.” Khalaf’s election in November Lebanese magistrates and legal of the state. (“Granting Happiness”), an “Enough is enough we cannot was largely seen as a first win experts to establish the Lebanese “Defaming the judiciary is not apolitical and non-confessional go on like that. Politicians should for the protesters who blame Judges Association in October acceptable. Any investigation or NGO that brings together understand once and for all that the ruling elite of bankrupting 2018. The independent NGO purge of corrupt judges should volunteers from all faiths and they have no right to interfere in is meant to act as an advocacy be done from within the judicial regions, as well as friends of the judiciary,” Khalaf said. group against political attempts to system. The judiciary has its Lebanon around the world, “The judges should be totally control the judiciary. own mechanism of monitoring to participate in community free from any influence and any “There is hope. Even Judges demand the right to and accountability. This is how services. pressure in order to be able to if we feel there is no vote for all members of the you consolidate the judicial Offrejoie has helped reconstruct fulfil their mission properly. We hope, we have to High Judicial Council, the authorities,” he said. two villages in southern Lebanon, have excellent judges but, in highest judicial authority in Among Khalaf’s long list of rehabilitated eight prisons and many instances, their hands were create hope.” the country. The High Judicial things to do is restructuring renovated 14 schools. Since 2012, tied down.” Council includes ten judges: the 100-year-old Beirut Bar it is also located in Iraq. Khalaf, a former Red Cross two elected from the Cassation Association. Despite the difficult task volunteer and vice-chairman Melhem Khalaf, Court, three designated members “We have a huge internal reform awaiting him, Khalaf is assertive. of the UN Committee on Beirut Bar Association and the other five appointed by workshop to do that includes “There is hope. Even if we feel the Elimination of Racial president the executive branch, which is automation, restructuring the there is no hope, we have to Discrimination, is the first controlled by the political elite. committees, et cetera. It is our create hope,” he said.

Viewpoint Is anyone looking for solutions to Lebanon’s economic woes? he dawn of a New were among 69 parliamentar- from 10 to 20%,” Haneen Sayed, bank. Decisions on downgrades Year was barely more ians voting for Diab, against 42 human development specialist have been taken on estimates of subdued than usual abstentions. for Lebanon at the World Bank, the central bank’s foreign-cur- Gareth Smyth in Lebanon. “Dular Whoever sits in government, said at a seminar in Beirut in rency reserves and whether they aw lubnani?” (a US there are no easy solutions for December. will decline,” Ghobril said. dollar or a Lebanese an $87 billion debt. The choices Such prospects fuel talk of open However, “reprofiling” would Tlira) joked a young man in a bar- ahead are over who pays and default. Some proponents argue need serious public-sector re- ber’s shop, echoing a common who, as economists say, takes the central bank foreign-currency form and deficit reduction, Gho- refrain as Lebanese joie de vivre haircut. reserves — down to $28 billion, bril insisted: “The government tickles the teeth of uncertainty. Many Lebanese have decided it Goldman Sachs said — should must urgently address its own in- For 22 years, US dollars and won’t be them and are not repay- not go to repay a $1.2 billion efficiencies, which are the origin Lebanese lira were interchange- ing bank loans and are ignoring Eurobond due in March ($10.9 of the problem. The public sector able in streets and shops at an bills from the loss-making state billion of debt matures in 2020) is too large, too costly. It should unvarying rate. Since the Banque electricity utility. but be held back to ensure basic support the private sector, not du Liban — Lebanon’s central One option for government services for poorer Lebanese. obstruct growth. Public expendi- bank — largely suspended the arises from 61% of the debt being Bankers know they are blamed ture reached the equivalent of peg in November, the lira has in Lebanese lira. Further devalu- — on a daily basis, tellers face 32% of GDP in 2018 — higher than dropped 33% in quasi-market ation would lessen its burden but distraught customers refused the UAE at 30%, Qatar at 29% or exchange. would again hit most Lebanese, withdrawals for medical or other Egypt with 30%. Prices of imports have jumped whose incomes are in lira. bills — but argue default would “There are also no credible as businesses and individuals A second option, advocated by be disastrous. efforts to fight tax and custom- struggled to find dollars after Samir al-Daher, adviser to former “There is misguided talk of the duty evasion, nor attempts to commercial banks imposed capi- Prime Minister Najib Mikati and need to choose between using improve fee collection. There are tal controls limiting withdrawals an ex-World Bank official, is a the central bank foreign reserves many things to do before asking to as little as $100 a week. one-off tax on dollar holdings to pay the Eurobond or to pay the private sector to pay any The currency crisis links to a in Lebanese banks. With this for import necessities,” said price for reforms,” Ghobril said. banking one because the bulk of revenue, the state would wipe Nassib Ghobril, chief economist Such priorities, alongside an $87 billion public debt — 150% out at least a large part of the $34 at Byblos Bank. “With default, tackling corruption, are shared of GDP — is financed by Lebanese billion dollar-denominated debt. whatever you build over decades abroad. Pledges of $11 billion, banks. Both link to a fiscal crisis A third option is debt restruc- in terms of credibility would just mainly loans, at 2018’s Paris with a government deficit of half turing, presumably under the In- evaporate. How do you get that conference are unfulfilled by its revenue. ternational Monetary Fund (IMF) reputation back?” international donors dismayed There is also a political crisis. with a haircut across the board, Ghobril said the Lebanese- by empty promises. Since October 17, protesters have including bank shareholders lira debt, held “100% by local The unanswered questions are been opposing tax hikes and and depositors. Such a default institutions, the central bank, many. Many Lebanese are bewil- proclaiming a revolution to end would undermine Lebanon’s commercial banks and the na- dered. Are any politicians inter- Pledges of $11 billion, corruption. Following the res- diminished creditworthiness and tional social security fund” can ested in or capable of building ignation of Prime Minister Saad impede future access to borrow- be “reprofiled” short of default. consensus for a “fair” recovery mainly loans, at Hariri, his successor, 60-year-old ing. “In the past we have resched- programme? Is the IMF, however 2018’s Paris engineering Professor Hassan To be sustainable, any sce- uled Treasury bills in Lebanese unpalatable, the only real route Diab, is seeking a “technocratic” nario entails reducing the deficit. pounds,” he said. to change? And, always, who will conference are government but faces opposi- Managing likely social unrest Such measures concentrated pay the price? unfulfilled by tion from many of the country’s requires popular understanding on the lira, he argued, would international donors parties. and stronger social safety nets. protect Lebanon’s standing. Gareth Smyth is a regular While the prime minister is “With 22% inflation and a GDP “Rating agencies look primarily contributor to The Arab Weekly. dismayed by empty constitutionally mandated to be contraction of 5%, numbers in at foreign-currency obligations, He has reported from the Middle promises. a Sunni Muslim, only five Sunnis extreme poverty would double whether of a government or a East since 1992. 12 January 5, 2020 News & Analysis Maghreb

New civilian, military leaderships in Algeria but old obsession with plots

in a position of responsibility has of signing any letter of credit of another banking facility. Francis Ghilès The economy remains essentially oil-and-gas-based and there were hopes that the instability that has n the face of it, the last characterised the management of week of 2019 ended 45 the Energy Ministry and the state oil weeks of massive dem- company will end. Djerad, however, onstrations in Algeria, has fired senior officials in both. How which attempted to a sector that provides 95% of the convince the military country s income and two-thirds of Othat controls the levers of power to budget receipts comes out of all this is concede a measure of democracy. anyone’s guess. Elections in December placed Djerad may find it difficult to initiate , 74, in the much-needed reforms. One is that, presidency and a new prime minister unless the standoff between the Hirak has been appointed in Abdelaziz and the country’s leaders ends, chronic Djerad, a 65-year-old former instability will become the norm, lack Difficulties ahead. Tunisian Prime Minister-designate Habib Jemli presents his government during a director of the National School of of trust that extracts a high price in any news conference in Tunis, January 2. (AFP) Administration and secretary-general economy will worsen and qualified of the ministry of foreign affairs. Algerians will become more scarce. The new prime minister had been Forced to retire or imprisoned sidelined as a result of clan infighting, because of alleged corruption, with Tunisia’s prime minister- during which time he tried to emigrate little hope of enjoying the due process to Canada. That country twice of law, others will move abroad to rejected his request. join the hundreds of thousands of As Tebboune settled in after well-qualified doctors, engineers and designate forms cabinet winning an election in which as few as university graduates who long ago 10% of eligible voters are believed to gave up on their country’s capacity to have cast a ballot, the army strongman manage its affairs with a modicum of who had de facto chosen him, General competence, honesty and respect for across political divisions Gaid Ahmed Salah, suddenly died. true talent. The 79-year-old chief of staff The sour mood that grips was replaced with General Said Algeria will persist and worsen Lamine Ghanmi factions over the party’s direction as For many analysts, a check of the Chengriha, who is 74 and hails from if the confrontation between an it prepares for a key leadership con- profiles and paths of the proposed the same Aures Mountains area as unstoppable Hirak and an unmovable gress in May to replace its long-time ministers reveals an Ennahda-dis- his predecessor. He denounced the establishment persists. Tunis chief. guised cabinet, making it difficult “foreign plot,” which, in his view, Djerad faces a monumental task. Ennahda leaders initially pushed for opposition groups to approve it. had destabilised Algeria since last As a man moulded by the system fter two months of negotia- Jemli to form a cabinet of “revo- “The profile of the cabinet is February. he has served so well, he might tions, Tunisian Prime Min- lutionary” parties, including the clearly of Ennahda even when Jemli Seeing everything through the find it difficult to imagine a less ister-designate Habib Jemli centre-left Attayyar ad-dimokrati insists otherwise. Several ministers prism of foreign plots is an old oil-dependent, more economically A announced a 42-member and the pan-Arab nationalist Achaab were members of the cabinets led political tradition in Algeria and diverse Algeria. The release of cabinet. Movement. They excluded any alli- by Hamadi Jebali and Ali Laarayedh; favourite pastime in many other parts important personalities suggests In the protracted process of gov- ance in government with the liberal both leaders were not apolitical in- of the Arab world, not that plots do the new civilian leaders are trying to ernment formation, Jemli dodged Qalb Tounes, accusing its leader, dependents,” said political writer not exist but such accusations offer appease tensions. unprecedented infighting within the media tycoon Nabil Karoui, of being Houcine Achour. the advantage of arguing that ordinary Issad Rebrab, Algeria’s most ruling Islamist Ennahda Movement, “corrupt” and a “reactionary force Jebali and Laarayedh were top En- people are being manipulated and successful private entrepreneur and overcome objections of political par- that is a throwback to dictatorship.” officials when the party was discarding their will. no friend of the Abdelaziz Bouteflika ties and a divide between a maverick Other Ennahda officials, how- in government in 2012 and 2013. Indeed, in the higher ranks of the cronies, many of whom await trial, president and the Islamist speaker ever, saw that an alliance with Qalb Analysts said some Ennahda Algerian Army and among many walked free after a brief trial. Lakhdar of parliament. Tounes, with 38 seats, the second- deputies might break ranks to vote senior civil servants the “people” Bouregaa, an 86-year-old fighter of the No group, however, offered un- largest group in parliament, would against the proposed government. or the Hirak, as the popular wave of war of independence and co-founder qualified support for Jemli’s pro- make it easier for the Islamists to be “There is no consensus inside En- rebellion is called, are viewed as a of the opposition Socialist Forces posed government, even Ennahda, part of the government system. nahda on the stand of Jemli to form matter of inconvenience and treated Front, was released after eight months which nominated him to lead the The proposed cabinet lineup a cabinet of apolitical competences with disdain, if not violence. in prison. So were others, such as government. Some activists pre- signalled a possible agreement be- with no ties to political parties,” said The violence of the rulers of Algeria Karim Tabbou and the cartoonist dicted Jemli would be unable to tween Ennahda and Qalb Tounes, Ennahda official and parliament was on display during the 37th Friday Grime. win approval of parliament for analysts said. member Samir Dilou. of popular marches in the eastern On the economic front, Djerad the cabinet. Analysts said an alliance with En- “President Saied has to get ready town of Annaba where alleged has his work cut out for him. If hard To pre-empt partisan objections, nahda would have advantages for to nominate another personality as supporters of Gaid Salah — hooligans, currency reserves continue to decline, Jemli fashioned a government of Qalb Tounes, including ending its prime minister in the place of Jemli, observers said — attacked Hirak Algeria might be forced to go the “independent” figures with “no relative isolation and giving it an im- who is not up to the task,” said At- marchers. International Monetary Fund cap in party affiliations.” However, observ- age as a responsible party, instead of tayyar’s Ghazi Chaouachi. Instead of protecting them, police hand. ers pointed to links between cabi- as personalities with no clear politi- The constitution stipulates that, if joined the fray with a level of violence We would then witness the net members to Ennahda and Qalb cal identity gathered around Karoui. the prime minister-designate fails to and intimidation that surprised many. extraordinary spectacle of the Tounes. The cabinet list includes a few win parliamentary endorsement for That violence, kept under wraps until mid-1990s repeating itself: proud With a splintered political class magistrates, including Hedi Guediri, his cabinet, the president will initi- last summer, suggests that senior nationalists bowing to the dictates of and lack of clear support, Jemli faces named justice minister; and Sofiene ate talks with political parties and generals and security officials will an international organisation rather a difficult task of putting the new Selliti, named interior minister. parliamentary blocs to select some- do all they can to provoke the Hirak than listening to the debates and government to work quickly on so- one else to form a cabinet. to justify the “need” for greater solutions that so many of their bright cio-economic priorities. Analysts said Saied and Speaker repression to ensure Algeria does not children could offer if Algeria’s leaders “It is a government of skills and Observers pointed to links Rached Ghannouchi, who is En- fall prey to another “plot.” decided to do so. competences to deliver results between cabinet members nahda’s president, have conflicting These are time-honoured measures In 1994, a proud nationalist Prime quickly,” Jemli vowed. to Ennahda and Qalb political agendas. that suggest Tebboune is not Minister Redha Malek bowed to After he was unable to cobble to- Tounes. “The stake is about who is the necessarily keen on dialogue. A tiger is the International Monetary Fund gether a cabinet whose members true leader. Rached Ghannouchi or hardly likely to change its stripes at 74. because he and his peers refused to were designated by a coalition of po- Imed Derouiche, another judge, Kais Saied. Who among the two calls The disdain of the military high listen to and endorse brave reforms litical parties, Jemli turned to “non- was picked to be defence minis- the shots,” said business magazine command was on display during put forward in the Cahiers de la political competences” to compose ter, former Ambassador to Jordan editor Nizar Bahloul. “It seems that Gaid Salah’s funeral when nearly Reforme, drafted in the presidency a proposed government line-up. Khaled Shili was named foreign the president aims at dissolving the 1,000 buses transported “distraught by one of President Chadli Benjedid’s “We shifted to a non-political minister and Fadhel Abdelkefi, an parliament to call for snap elections Algerians” from every corner of advisers, Abderrahmane Hadj Nacer, cabinet of national competences, ex-finance minister, was selected for while Ghannouchi seeks to avoid Algeria to follow the cortege of the and implemented in 1989-91 before a cabinet filled with independent the Ministry of Development and In- a confrontation and prevents the former chief-of-staff. political mismanagement ended the skills, honest competences with ex- ternational Cooperation. president from encroaching in his They were all male, young and had bold experience. perience and who have no partisan Tourism Minister Rene Trabelsi power.” short cropped hair — in other words, It would be a sad state of affairs if links after we faced the difficulties was the only member of the former Saied’s former campaign adviser as during the elections, senior military reforms in Algeria were imposed from of delicate landscape, a parliament government to keep his post. Ridha Chiheb Mekki said the presi- officers used young conscripts as outside rather than from inside for a that is pulled in opposite and un- It is not clear whether Ennahda dent should call a referendum to foot soldiers in a bad remake of a second time. For that to happen, the precedented directions and political would drum up sufficient support change the political regime that scat- Hollywood film. military would have to stretch its hand infighting within various parties,” for Jemli’s government, even with ters powers between parliament, Algerian leaders might care to take out to the Hirak. So would Tebboune he said. Qalb Tounes’s backing. Most groups, the cabinet and the president, with a leaf out of their Russian, Chinese or and his newly minted prime minister. Jemli had announced several ver- including al-Karama Coalition, most power given to parliament. North Korean friends. At least they The new chief-of-staff would have to sions of a proposed cabinet before a vowed to withhold support for the “It is a failure that repeats itself pride themselves on putting on a good give up his fantasies of foreign plots. list was endorsed January 2 by Tuni- cabinet when parliament decided on endlessly since 2011 and the people show. The only plot against Algeria lies sian President Kais Saied and sent to approval of the cabinet, January 10. are suffering from that. President Tebboune has made clear that he in the stubborn refusal of its leaders parliament for debate. Radical Islamist Al-Karama con- Kais Saied, you face a historic duty wishes to confront the political crisis to take into consideration the honest Ennahda, which won 52 seats in trols 21 seats in the parliament. Its because the status quo is not an op- head-on while Djerad will tackle the views of 43 million Algerian men and parliamentary elections as the first support for Ennahda was, until re- tion and the country cannot afford economic crisis that has cost tens of women. party in the 217-seat chamber, ap- cently, a foregone conclusion to al- to wait any longer,” said Mekki. thousands of jobs in firms whose CEOs pointed Jemli almost two months low the Islamists to gather the mini- were arrested for alleged corruption. Francis Ghilès is an associate fellow at ago with subsequent conflicting or- mum 109 votes needed to endorse Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly Others suffer from the literal seizure the Barcelona Centre for International ders reflecting battles between its Jemli’s proposed cabinet. correspondent in Tunis. of bank credit and the fear anyone Affairs. January 5, 2020 13 News & Analysis Egypt Egypt’s elections could herald Islamists’ demise

Ahmed Megahid Egyptians will elect senators for the first time since 2012. The Sen- ate was abolished in the 2014 con- Cairo stitution, which was drafted after the army-backed popular uprising gyptian political parties against the Muslim Brotherhood have started preparing for in mid-2013. Amendments intro- House of Representatives duced to the constitution last April E and Senate elections amid reinstituted the Senate. expectations the vote will herald The Senate is to include 180 the demise of the country’s Islam- members, 60 to be appointed by ist forces. the president. Political parties are preparing The House of Representatives is lists of potential candidates fol- to debate election laws and the di- lowing parliamentary debates on vision of constituencies in the com- election laws and working to build ing weeks. recognition on the streets to ensure The Senate elections are sched- constituents’ support. uled for April but there are calls Some parties organised training for having the Senate and House for potential candidates, with a elections, due in November, at the focus on political education, out- same time to reduce costs. This reach to constituents and legisla- means that the date for the Sen- tive priorities. Other parties formed ate elections could be changed if coalitions to better compete with the Election Commission decides larger parties. to combine the vote for the two chambers. The elections will be of extreme Egypt’s Islamist forces importance for Egypt’s political received a nearly fatal parties, especially those that could blow with the exit of the not win House seats in 2015. Egypt Muslim Brotherhood, by has more than 100 political parties far the largest Islamist but few are represented in the par- force in Egypt before its liament. collapse in 2013. “The elections will give a very good chance for the political par- Officials of the Nation’s Future ties to prove their worth among Party, which controls 387 of the 596 voters,” said Tarek Fahmi, a politi- seats in the House of Representa- cal science professor at Cairo Uni- tives, have coordinated with other versity. “The problem is that we Weak prospects. Lawmakers of the Egyptian Salafist Nour Party attend a special session of (AFP) political parties and formulated cri- have so many parties but very few parliament in Cairo, last April. teria for the selection of candidates. of them have a real presence on the “We have been doing this for ground.” ful in the elections will continue to ert but continue to exist on paper. growing public hostility, analysts some time now to ensure that we On December 17, Egyptian Presi- be a presence for many years. The Salafists are part of the Egyp- said. are fully prepared for the polls,” dent Abdel Fattah al-Sisi reiterated That raises questions about tian political scene, having escaped “The next elections will probably said Ashraf Rashad, the party head. his call for weak parties to merge Egypt’s Islamist forces, which re- the fate of the Muslim Brotherhood promulgate the total demise of po- “The preparations are happen- into other parties to form stronger ceived a nearly fatal blow with the by demonstrating support for post- litical Islam in Egypt,” said Muneer ing inside all party branches in all entities. exit of the Muslim Brotherhood, Muslim Brotherhood authorities. Adeeb, a specialist in Islamist af- provinces.” The elections are seen as an by far the largest Islamist force in However, the Salafists did not fairs. “The Islamists have already More than 50 million Egyptians end to Egypt’s political transition, Egypt before its collapse in 2013. make significant gains in the lost credibility among the members are registered to vote and the gov- which started following the down- Egyptian authorities dissolved 2015 elections, winning only 12 of the public.” ernment will spend millions of dol- fall of the Muslim Brotherhood re- the Muslim Brotherhood’s political seats. The Islamists, including the lars to set up voting centres. gime in 2013. That, analysts said, party in 2014. Islamist parties affili- Salafists, have weak electoral pros- Ahmed Megahid is an Egyptian Apart from the House elections, means that political forces success- ated to the group are considered in- pects for several reasons, including reporter in Cairo. Wary of Turkey’s involvement in Libya, Cairo prioritises diplomacy

Amr Emam threat in Libya, bolster state insti- nity to do this.” tutions in the country and protect On December 16, Sisi said Egypt Libyan resources. would not allow anybody to con- Cairo Sisi also called for an end to for- trol Libya. “Libya is an issue of na- eign interference in Libyan affairs. tional security for us,” he said. gypt condemned passage He had phone conversations with For Egypt, the threat was made by Turkey’s parliament of French President Emmanuel Ma- more imminent when, three days a measure that allows Tur- cron, US President Donald Trump, later, the GNA requested military E key to send troops to Libya. Russian President Vladimir Putin, support from Turkey. The deployment of Turkish troops Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe All belligerents seem to hurry to in Libya, Cairo said, would “nega- Conte and German Chancellor An- change the situation in Libya be- tively affect” stability in the Medi- gela Merkel. fore Turkey can deploy troops in terranean. The flurry of diplomatic con- support of GNA militias. In a statement January 2, the tacts occurred less than a month The LNA, which controls almost Assessing options. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (C) Egyptian government called on after Turkey signed security co- three-quarters of Libyan territory, presides over the National Security Council, which convened the international community to ur- operation and maritime bound- started a campaign to take control to discuss potential escalations arising from foreign military gently respond to the move. ary delimitation agreements with of Tripoli last April. intervention in Libya, January 2. (Egyptian Presidency) The statement came minutes af- the GNA. The maritime boundary Turkey is reported to have sent ter the Turkish approved a bill sub- delimitation document prevents hundreds of battle-hardened ji- mitted by Turkish President Recep Eastern Mediterranean countries hadists and pro-Turkish militia- natural gas bonanza, analysts said. and Merkel, Sisi said extremist Tayyip Erdogan rsulting from a from exploring natural gas or ex- men from Syria to Libya to fight on “This is why Egypt is very con- militias in Libya pose a threat to security memo signed between tending pipelines in the region the side of pro-Sarraj Islamist mili- cerned about the new Turkish Libya and the entire Mediterra- Ankara and the Libyan Govern- without approval from Turkey. tias in Tripoli, something the GNA moves in the region,” said Samir nean region. He called for giving ment of National Accord (GNA) in denies. Ghattas, the head of the Middle the LNA the chance to remove Tripoli. An additional concern for Cairo East Studies Centre think-tank. terrorists from Libya and prevent The agreement calls for Turkey The deployment of Turkish is control of energy resources in There are no clear answers to foreign interference in Libyan to send troops to Libya at the re- troops in Libya, Cairo said, the Eastern Mediterranean. what Egypt can or will do to pre- affairs. quest of the GNA. It had sought would “negatively affect” Turkey has been seeking to vent Turkey from gaining ground Given the international wari- Turkish support on November stability in the avoid being excluded from the re- militarily in Libya. Egypt, analysts ness about Ankara’s intents, Cairo 19 to repel Libyan National Army Mediterranean. gion, especially after Egypt signed said, could obstruct Turkish mili- is likely to receive support from (LNA), which has been moving to- a maritime boundary demarcation tary shipments to Libya but that many world capitals. “Egypt coor- wards Tripoli. Turkey offered military support, agreement with Cyprus and has risks a direct military confronta- dinates with the European Union Egypt is developing a diplomatic including personnel carriers and been said to be preparing another tion. and I believe it is making gains,” and military military strategy as a unmanned aerial vehicles to mili- with Greece. The Egyptian Navy has conduct- said Libyan affairs specialist Abdel shield against the risks of Turkey’s tias affiliated with the GNA, which In early 2019, Egypt formed a fo- ed activities off Egypt’s Mediter- Sattar Heteita. European officials possible military deployment in is led by Prime Minister Fayez al- rum of gas producers and consum- ranean coast and plans joint drills have objected to Turkey’s military Libya. Sarraj. ers in the region that does not in- soon. It is also increasing security plans in Libya. The plans include shaping an Cairo sees direct Turkish mili- clude Turkey. It plans to collect gas on the Libyan border. “Moscow and Washington will international consensus against tary involvement in Libya as a po- produced in the region, process it Cairo seems to be prioritising likely side with Egypt, given differ- Turkey’s involvement in Libya and tential harm to its interests. and export it to Europe. diplomatic efforts to contain Tur- ences between Ankara and these backing multinational efforts to “Turkey’s military presence in The legality of the deals Turkey key’s designs. It is trying to form capitals, on one hand, and the de- reach a negotiated settlement for Libya is a direct threat to Egypt,” signed with the GNA has been an international alliance against structive effects of Turkish poli- the Libyan crisis. said Nagui al-Ghortifi, a former questioned but Turkey wants foreign intervention in Libya cies in the region, on the other,” he In talks with other world leaders, assistant to the Egyptian foreign to use the agreements to block and its possible consequences, said. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah minister. “Turkey strives to be- Egypt’s Eastern Mediterranean especially in terms of jihadist al-Sisi stressed the need for inter- siege Egypt and the deals it signed energy ambitions and guarantee it- threats. Amr Emam is an Arab Weekly national efforts to end the terrorist with the GNA give it the opportu- self a stake in the region’s potential In conversations with Trump contributor in Cairo. 14 January 5, 2020 Debate Palestine Israel

With no end to occupation in sight, ineffective efforts to punish Israel proliferate

duelling options reflects the absence of any real prospect of realising the fleeting international Geoffrey Aronson consensus supporting an end to the occupation and establishing a Pal- estinian state at peace with Israel. few days before the Regardless of anyone’s opinion new year, the Interna- on the Oslo process, the atmos- tional Criminal Court phere after the historic handshake in the Hague began in September 1993 between Pales- an investigation into tine Liberation Organisation (PLO) Israel’s occupation of Chairman Yasser Arafat and Israeli theA West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was Jerusalem. far different than that of today. “I am satisfied that war crimes The prospect of a historic agree- have been or are being committed ment dominated the environment in the West Bank, including East and even its opponents among Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip,” Palestinians and Israelis under- announced Chief Prosecutor Fatou stood they had to operate within No end in sight. A Palestinian protester yells at an Israeli soldier as he confronts him atop an Israeli Bensouda, prompting protests that hopeful atmosphere. army vehicle during a protest near the Palestinian village of Naqura, last September. (AFP) from Jerusalem and Washington. It looks far different and more The German government is the frightening today. The promise of latest to seek to criminalise op- Oslo has proven to be a cruel mi- offers losers a second chance. tive diplomatic engagement. settlement expansion. position to Israel’s occupation by rage. In the past 30 years, Israel’s Today, there is no effective or Indeed, such tactics are inversely Frustration with this record has conflating it with anti-Semitism. settler population — the clearest powerful champion for a reinvigor- proportional to the prospects of a fuelled efforts as wide ranging In New York, a Jewish col- barometer of Israeli intentions ated diplomatic effort. The PLO diplomatic resolution of the con- as the Boycott, Divestment and lege student alleged he endured — has more than tripled from under the leadership of Mahmoud flict that would end the occupation Sanctions movement, the Obama “systemic discrimination” from 200,000. Abbas has all but disappeared and create a Palestinian state of administration’s farewell decision anti-Israel groups at Columbia International consensus sup- from the international diplomatic peace with Israel. in December 2016 to abstain on University, in violation of an order porting an end of occupation and landscape. The Israeli government of Biny- UN Security Council Resolution by the Trump administration that the creation of a Palestinian state Israeli politicians of all stripes, amin Netanyahu, while it opposes 2334, demanding a halt in settle- threatens to criminalise such ac- has buckled under the oppressive sensing Washington’s serial diplo- the International Criminal Court ment construction, and the Trump tions. weight of consistent diplomatic matic shortcomings, are embracing investigation vigorously and for administration’s preference for “This is our message to universi- failure and the menacing inten- a new West Bank agenda — annexa- the same reason cheers efforts to recognising Israeli “facts on the ties,” declared US President Donald tions of the Trump administration. tion — that is the antithesis of the stifle growing frustration with the ground.” Trump. “If you want to accept the Israel’s occupation is viewed shopworn vocabulary that once occupation, understands well that Unrealisable demands similarly tremendous amount of federal as an unremarkable and all but dominated the diplomatic land- these instruments are far easier to reflect the vacuum created by fail- dollars that you get every year, you permanent part of the Middle East scape. manage than a serious diplomatic ure of diplomacy. With no prospect must reject anti-Semitism. It’s very landscape, rather than the tempo- Measures that demonise Israel engagement aimed at ending occu- of a change in this environment, simple.” rary and receding reality hinted at on the one hand or that criminalise pation and dismantling of a settle- indeed with every indication that The festering conflict between Is- by Oslo. expressions of opposition to Israel ment infrastructure that, over the more, rather than fewer, obstacles raelis and Palestinians precipitated The failures of the Obama and settlement expansion on the past 50 years, has claimed lands to any agreement will be created, these actions and a host of others administration marked the end of other reflect the despair that domi- vital to Palestinian sovereignty. many more of such second- and but, no matter how successful international efforts to address the nates discussion of the conflict Israel and the PLO have not third-best efforts can be expected such measures, no one believes an conflict in a diplomatic framework between Israelis and Palestinians. agreed on anything since 1997. in 2020. end of Israel’s occupation will be based on Israel’s evacuation and They are not aimed at resolving the An entire generation has grown brought one day closer or that its Palestinian statehood. conflict but rather to punish and up in the Palestinian territories, Geoffrey Aronson is a non-resident many opponents will be silenced. That collapse will not be easily criminalise. In this sense, they are Israel and elsewhere knowing only scholar at the Middle East Institute Rather, the popularity of such or quickly undone. History rarely the antithesis of tools used in effec- diplomatic failure and insatiable in Washington. Where is Gaza heading in 2020?

Resolution 194, should have been If the intended reason for the implemented. siege was to defeat Hamas, the de The world’s failure to force Israel facto ruler of the strip, this has Kamel Hawwash to implement this right resulted, failed spectacularly, bringing into on March 31, 2018, in the Palestin- question the calculations Israel ians in Gaza marching up to the made when it imposed it. While s the sun set for the fence that prevents them from claiming it does not negotiate with last time in 2019 and returning to their land. Instead of Hamas, which Israel considers a people around the allowing them in, Israel deployed terrorist organisation, it must do world celebrated the snipers with the intent of injuring, this through intermediaries when start of 2020 with killing and maiming protesters. Is- violence breaks out or to secure spectacular displays rael’s brutality saw more than 200 the release of captured Israelis. ofA fireworks in Sydney, Dubai, Lon- Palestinians, including journalists There seems to be no urgency don and New York, the besieged and paramedics, killed. by the international community to Gaza Strip entered the year in The nearly 50 children killed find a sustainable solution to the which a 2012 UN report stated that included unarmed Uthman Rami humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Hope, the area was expected to become Hillis, 14, who died from a bullet to particularly for young Palestinians unlivable. the chest that exited through his there, is in very short supply. As If the world had heeded that back on July 13, 2018. The Israeli the Arabic saying goes: “We are warning from the United Na- sniper who killed him was sen- alive for lack of dying.” tions, every effort should have tenced to a month’s community Those who look to elections in been made to ensure a sustain- service and his rank downgraded. Israel and the Palestinian territo- able solution to problems brought This is the value Israel places on a Uncertain future. A Palestinian woman walks past the rubble of a ries to change the situation will about by overcrowding and a tight, Palestinian life. building destroyed by Israeli air strikes in Gaza City, last May. be disappointed. Even if elections (Reuters) immoral siege imposed by one of Israel’s refusal to allow the take place in Palestinian areas, its members on almost 2 million refugees to return means the they may not bring relief to the human beings under occupation overcrowding in Gaza will worsen. the flow of food. However, Israel charities and supportive govern- strip unless Israel changes course. was found. However, it was reported that has interfered in the types of food ments. The effect of the siege hits The third set of Israeli elections The solution to the overcrowd- Israel was looking to secure agree- allowed into the besieged strip. cancer patients; children and those in one year, set for March, will ing is obvious. Since 80% of ments with countries that might What the UN report did not on dialysis treatment are are par- not have candidates competing Palestinians in Gaza are refugees, take in Palestinians who wish to factor in were two wars Israel ticularly affected. to explain how they will end the their return to the homes, villages relocate from Gaza. launched against Gaza after its As Israel controls access to medi- siege on Gaza but rather how hard and towns from which their fore- The sun set December 31 and publication that caused further cal facilities in East Jerusalem and they have hit the strip in the past, fathers and likely some of them rose January 1 with the Gaza popu- misery and destruction to Gaza’s West Bank, patients require per- implying a vote for them would were expelled through violence in lation still confined by a block- fragile infrastructure. mits to travel, permits that are of- bring quiet. 1948, which was permitted in UN ade designed by Israel to ensure The unemployment rate stands ten delayed or refused. Cases have However, recent images of enough food was allowed into the at 45% and is at 60% among Gaza’s been reported of children travelling Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin strip to keep the Palestinians alive youth. The intermittent electricity alone for treatment because Israel Netanyahu scuppering to a bomb but with little hope of a solution to supply hardly reaches half of what refuses to issue their relatives per- shelter confirm that no amount of their problems. is required and more than 90% of mits to accompany them. force will bring permanent quiet to The Gaza Strip is The Guardian newspaper aquifer water is undrinkable. The While Israel has made some the area. always one rocket reported in 2012 that Major Guy population must spend precious efforts to ease the economic situa- The Gaza Strip is always one away from another Inbar, an Israeli military spokes- income on drinking water and elec- tion, it remains in complete control rocket away from another heavy man, said the calculation, based tricity generators and tends to buy of this, including how far fisher- attack by Israel regardless of heavy attack by on a person’s average requirement fresh food as needed rather than men can go in the search for their whether it is liveable or not. Israel regardless of of 2,300 calories a day, was meant for freezing, which costs additional catch. to identify warning signs to help money. Israel’s siege is calculated to en- Kamel Hawwash is a Britain-based whether it is avoid a humanitarian crisis and The medical situation is dire, sure the population lives but does Palestinian university professor liveable or not. that it was never used to restrict despite many initiatives by medical not thrive. and writer. January 5, 2020 15 Debate Turkey Erdogan’s game-changing offensive overwhelms EU in disarray

cies pursued by Ankara, contrary to what major European capitals seem to think, will have a deter- Yavuz Baydar mining effect on developments. The resolve of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his team in the pursuit of a high-stakes game should be better understood. he new year began with “The one who considers his own a bang. The drone at- end can never become a hero,” tack that killed Iranian Turkish Vice-President Fuat Oktay Major-General Qassem said before the vote in Turkish Soleimani, commander parliament. of al-Quds Force, the What should be understood is Texternal wing of the Iran’s Islamic that Ankara’s policies are designed Revolutionary Guard Corps, will by a solid group of adventurists have far-reaching consequences circling around Erdogan, who, in the Middle East and beyond, instead of standing up to his delu- adding to the battle for influence in sions of grandeur, seem to encour- the region between Russia and the age him to pursue more daredevil United States. gambling. However, the strike does not This is not without a rationale: change the situation created by the rudderless drift in Europe and Turkey’s convulsive moves in the the disarray in Washington provide Eastern Mediterranean and Libya. a perfect setting for raising the Initially underestimated and stakes. Erdogan has long realised watched with measured anxiety by that, to have a say in a world in the European Union, the escalation disorder, his government can and reached a new level January 2 after should cross the lines and do its the vote by Turkish parliament to best to benefit from fait accompli allow Turkish troops to be dis- situations. patched to Libya, as Greece, Israel Syria was a fine example and and Cyprus signed an accord for a now Ankara has its eyes set on 1,900km undersea pipeline deal in Libya — no diplomatic bluffing Athens. there. A foothold in North Africa’s Russia and Turkey are to sign shoreline has less to do with neo- the Turk Stream agreement, which Ottoman dreams than with spread- would set up an accelerated power ing Ikhwanism — Muslim Brother- struggle as the countries in the hood ideology — having access Insatiable appetite for control. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a symposium region display axes being formed to energy and politically winning in Ankara, January 2. (Reuters) against each other, a dangerous over Africa. development that is reminiscent “I don’t think there’s any of the times preceding two world thought of a re-establishing the embassies in 42 of 54 of Africa’s see an opportunity to help the which sees this as its best chance wars in the 20th century. Ottoman Empire with control countries. That’s an astounding Muslim Brotherhood regain the for revenge after the fait accompli Turkey’s policy choices have over territory but there is a desire number for an economy the size sphere of influence it lost there. toppling of the Qaddafi regime placed it in a massive vortex. In to establish Turkish influence of Turkey. I think it’s an effort to The resolve with which Erdogan in Libya, after the adventurist the Eastern Mediterranean and throughout the former Ottoman establish not only a political pres- raises his stakes in tying his links move by French President Nicolas Libya, it stands far closer to serving area, which covers, of course, all ence but also political influence in is, in a way, an attempt to keep the Sarkozy. The stage is set for huge Russia’s long-term interests, while of North Africa and extends into as many countries as possible to AKP rule intact at home. Erdogan complications for Europe and its challenging the European Union parts of sub-Saharan Africa,” said ensure these countries’ support in knows that Turkey, which he rules fragile democratic orders. and, to a great deal, the United David Shinn, a former US ambas- forums such as the United Na- with the help of his Islamist circle Erdogan is launching a game- States. As a consequence, the poli- sador now teaching international tions over issues like Cyprus, for of advisers, and his party are the changing offensive in the entire relations at George Washington example.” last bastions of Ikhwanism — a fact Eastern Mediterranean and he University in an interview with Those observations are only part often ignored by analysts. may succeed unless the European Public Radio International. of a broader reality. What has unit- Throughout 2020 we will watch Union’s major actors master their Throughout 2020 we “As a result, you’ve seen a major ed Turkey’s staunch nationalist, Erdogan’s Turkey pushing the courage and pre-empt his move. will watch Erdogan’s effort by Erdogan to re-establish anti-Western circles with Erdogan boundaries for irredentist ad- The odds of that happening are Turkey’s interests throughout all was the will to recalibrate Turkish ventures, backed by the notion quite remote. Expect a storm Turkey pushing the of Africa, including those parts foreign policy as autonomous from that Erdogan will do his best to ahead. boundaries for that had nothing whatsoever to do American-European frameworks. endorse US President Donald with the Ottoman Empire. In Syria and in Libya, Erdogan Trump, his only base of support in Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish irredentist “A good indication of this is sim- and his Islamist Justice and the West. journalist and regular columnist adventures. ply the fact that Turkey now has Development Party (AKP) still All this is fine with Russia, for The Arab Weekly. Turkey’s Mediterranean strategy risks overstretch

back separatist Kurdish militias. Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone delineation has been rejected by Ankara’s role and investment Sabahat Khan Alongside its activities in Syria, and is vying for territories in the Greece, Cyprus, Israel and Egypt, in Libya have evolved to have as Turkey has become a leading Aegean Sea and off the island of among others, but it is perhaps much a geostrategic agenda as a urkey’s foreign policy powerbroker in oil-rich Libya. The Crete controlled by Greece. only if the GNA falls that the agree- geopolitical one. Turkey’s regional has been the subject Turkish parliament has provided Greece, Israel and Cyprus have ment can seriously be expected to strategy may appear in flux but it of intense interest for a 1-year mandate to deploy troops signed a deal to build a 1,900km collapse. is being layered and strategically more than a decade. into Libya, following a request by undersea pipeline to carry gas Turkey’s regional military interlinked. The downside of that In that time its mantra the UN-backed Government of Na- from fields in the Eastern Mediter- footprint has been on a growth for Ankara is that once it goes has transformed from tional Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, led ranean to continental Europe via curve but Ankara will come into all in, there will be few fallback T“zero problems with neighbours” by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. Crete, mainland Greece and Italy. more intense competition and options in place for contingency to a much more combative ap- The GNA has been struggling un- The EastMed pipeline project resistance from regional rivals that scenarios. proach in which Ankara asserts its der a fierce offensive and 9-month- could satisfy around 10% of EU do not want to see an expanded For years, Erdogan maintained interests more boldly than ever old siege by the Khalifa Haftar-led natural gas needs and provide Turkish role or presence near their rhetoric around restoring Turkey’s before. Libyan National Army (LNA). Europe a viable way to reduce own borders. Egypt, a long-term regional leadership role and has The start of the Syrian civil war The LNA has significant backing dependence on Russian gas. stakeholder in the Eastern Medi- breathed new life into the idea of marked a major turning point be- from some of Turkey’s staunchest However, Turkey wants to terranean’s energy discoveries, neo-Ottomanism — aspirations cause Ankara abruptly cut its once regional rivals, in particular Egypt exploit large gas discoveries in the has declared it views the growing that have proven popular with his cordial ties to the government of and the United Arab Emirates, as Eastern Mediterranean for itself Turkish military footprint as a conservative voter base at home Syrian President Bashar Assad well as being backed by Russian because they promise lucrative threat to “Arab national security, but which have been equally un- and opted to support opposition mercenaries. business and strategic empower- in general, and Egyptian national popular outside the country. groups, which ultimately failed to The scope of the anticipated ment — both of which are in high security, in particular.” The reality of Turkey’s growing topple the government. Turkish military deployment to demand for Ankara, given its For the time being, Ankara will assertiveness may be more driven However, Turkey is today — Libya is not clear but it comes lacklustre economy and strategic be focused on ensuring the LNA of- by securing seats for itself and its along with Russia — the only stake- shortly after Turkey’s third mili- tightrope walks. fensive on Tripoli can be repelled allies at the negotiating table for holder running continuous military tary incursion into Syria, an agree- Turkey has also aimed to posi- and will likely dispatch military the region’s various stalemated operations in Syria as it aims to roll ment in November with Qatar tion itself as a regional gateway for units only incrementally — trying, crises and by its long-term outlook to enhance defence cooperation energy supplies and pipelines, in as far as possible, to limit the scale for economic development, leav- further and Turkey’s controversial good part to build leverage with its of its military involvement. ing open some small space for drilling off Cypriot waters. main oil and gas suppliers, tradi- Turkey’s emerging strategy, possible negotiations. Ankara will come into The race for offshore energy tionally Iran, Iraq and Russia. which is heavily dependent on an However, if Turkey’s military more intense deposits in the Eastern Mediter- Turkish President Recep Tayyip underlying military component to units being deployed abroad now ranean created new tensions as Erdogan declared that the mari- deliver its intended results, is rais- do not deliver results swiftly competition and Turkish vessels began drilling time border agreement signed by ing questions. Overstretch is a real enough, Ankara could find itself resistance from in waters off the Cypriot coast Turkey and Libya, which deline- risk for Ankara moving ahead, par- being militarily drawn much more regional rivals that do escorted by Turkish warships. EU ates borders between them and ticularly when its rival bloc may deeply than would be comfort- and NATO member Greece has bad extends into Eastern Mediter- implement a coordinated counter- able. not want to see an blood with NATO ally Turkey — in ranean areas any pipeline would strategy to contest the Turkish expanded Turkish particular over Cyprus, also an EU inevitably cross, means that no military at sea and indirectly with Sabahat Khan maintains a cross- member, which Ankara does not projects could proceed without the its allies in Libya, Syria and more disciplinary focus in international role or presence near recognise as a state. consent of Ankara. widely in, for example, Sudan and security, defence policy and their own borders. Turkey lays claim to much of The Turkish-Libyan border Somalia. strategic issues. 16 January 5, 2020 Spotlight Turkey Libya Viewpoint Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman dreams was on Libya’s shores

civil war that is not his. On November 27, Erdogan and Sarraj signed a disputed maritime Majed Nehme agreement that ostensibly gives Turkey access to economic zones rich in hydrocarbons claimed by Greece and Cyprus. By doing so, hat has got Erdogan risked adding oil to the into the un- simmering fire in the region and controllable, possibly provoking a war with Islamist Turkish consequences even more disas- President Recep trous than those of the NATO-led Tayyip Erdogan campaign of 2011. Wto make him head towards pos- Besides the maritime border sibly getting bogged down in the demarcation agreement, a military Libyan quagmire? deal allowing Turkey to intervene The Turkish Army has been militarily in Libya in violation of occupying part of Cyprus since UN Security Council resolutions 1974 and, since 1984, has been was announced. The modalities of fighting a guerrilla war against the military and logistical support Kurdish fighters in East Anatolia. agreement have remained shroud- It is illegally present in northern ed in vagueness and secrecy. Iraq, where it established several support bases to chase Kurdistan The Syrian scenario all over again Workers’ Party leaders entrenched in the impregnable mountainous The Syrian rebels — who should region of Qandil. Since 2011, Er- be referred to as mercenaries in dogan’s army has occupied a large the service of Turkey and Qatar — part of Syrian territory in the Idlib, are “invited” to return the favour Aleppo and north-eastern border to their benefactors. regions. Sources in this rebellion and in Turkish interference in Libyan the Western media, said several affairs is not new. There were hundred Syrian Islamist fighters Green light. Turkish members of parliament vote to send Turkish troops to Libya, in Ankara, January 2. Erdogan’s betrayal of his former have been sent to Libya to fight (AFP) “friend” Muammar Qaddafi in 2011 against Field-Marshal Khalifa and support of the Islamist militias Haftar’s Libyan National Army in Misrata, Benghazi and Tripoli. (LNA). Those fighters are from During a 2016 ceremony in nimity against him, from Egypt the assembly elected in June 2014 the Free Syrian Army, such as the memory of Ataturk, Erdogan gave to Algeria, via Tunisia, the Arab and recognised by the internation- Falcon Brigade, the Legion a speech in which he provided an League, Italy, France and even al community. This shows to what of the Levant or the Sultan Mourad excellent illustration of his impe- Russia and the United States, even extent none of the parties to the The position of Paris Division and they would be paid rial dreams. though they all invariably repeat conflict can claim to represent the today towards recent $1,800 a month per person. “You must know that Turkey is that the solution to the Libyan Libyan people as a whole. These brigades are ideologically bigger than Turkey,” he said. “We question can only be political and Haftar is a former Libyan Army developments is not and organisationally subservient cannot stay locked in 780,000 that all external interference is general who dissented quite early clear although the to the Muslim Brotherhood with sq.km. For our physical bounda- null and void. from the Qaddafi regime, more the blessing of Ankara. ries are one thing and our heart precisely following his troops’ developments Recruiting and deploying the boundaries are something else. French game defeat in Chad in 1987. He actively directly threaten mercenaries to Libya to serve Our brothers in Mosul, Kirkuk, collaborated with the United Paris’s interests in the as cannon fodder was not to Aleppo, Homs, Misrata, Skopje, France, which does not shine by States to overthrow Qaddafi, everyone’s taste. Some of them Crimea and the Caucasus may its consistency, led the 2011 NATO then returned to the country in Mediterranean and in preferred to desert and splits ap- very well be outside our physical fight against the Qaddafi regime. 2011 and became involved in the the Sahel. peared within the organisations. borders, they are [still] all within The position of Paris today to- fight against jihadist groups with A similar scenario was used in our heart’s borders.” wards recent developments is not the help of former Libyan Army Syria. The latter had the foolish By attempting to replay in Libya clear although the developments officers, influential local tribes He did that in close coordina- idea of ​​sealing a “strategic partner- the Syrian scenario of support- directly threaten Paris’s interests and Libyan nationalists dreaming tion with Qatar, the state sponsor ship” in 2006 with Ankara. How- ing the paramilitary formations in the Mediterranean and in the of ending the chaos embodied by of the Muslim Brotherhood and of ever, from the start of the Syrian of the Libyan Muslim Brothers, Sahel while risking degenerat- the politico-military coalition Fajr the “Arab spring” uprisings. Turk- insurgency, the Turkish “friend” is Erdogan seeking to fulfil his ing into a general confrontation Libya. The Misrata militias and the ish interference in Libya has not fled to the rescue of its agents, the dream of reinstalling Turkey in the between NATO members and Arab Muslim Brotherhood are part of stopped since 2011. Syrian Muslim Brothers. With the oversized clothes of the defunct countries, including Egypt and that coalition and are supported At the time Turkey, with the complicity of Western powers, the Ottoman Empire? Or is he play- Algeria. by Qatar and Turkey. complicity of NATO and Doha, Turkish regime armed, financed ing to disappointed voters who France and the European Union In addition to his tribal and used Libyan ports to transport and logistically supported these punished his Islamist Justice and have stood out by their immobil- military alliances, Haftar has the arms and Islamist combatants to “brothers.” Development Party with a stinging ity, their duplicity and inconsist- support of Egypt, which could not Syria via Turkish ports and Leba- Turkey’s decision to send Syrian setback in the municipal elections encies vis-a-vis the danger that accept that neighbouring Libya non. auxiliaries to Tripoli to the rescue in main cities of the country such Turkish policy represents for their was threatening to be a rear base By rushing to the aid of Libyan of the Libyan Islamist militias as Istanbul and Ankara. national security. for the Muslim Brotherhood. Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, reveals Erdogan’s expansionist Whatever Erdogan’s agendas Blackmailed by Turkey, which Haftar enjoys the support of head of the Government of Na- strategy in the Mediterranean and may be, the reckless strategy he threatened to open its European Russia, which admires his com- tional Accord (GNA), Erdogan is all the way to China and Central has begun in Libya is likely to cost borders to hundreds of thousands mitment to the war against claiming the right to interfere in a Asia. him dearly. It has achieved una- of refugees and illegal immigrants jihadist terrorism, and of certain seeking to reach Europe, the Gulf countries, which had put European countries agreed to pay the Muslim Brotherhood on their a ransom of $6 billion to Turkey lists of terrorist organisations. He for detaining these would-be has liberated most of the Libyan migrants on Turkish territory. territory and is on the verge of They agreed to fund the militias conquering Tripolitania. in Tripoli and Misrata to police the Algeria would be quite amena- Libyan coast on their behalf, while ble to a military victory by Haftar, turning a blind eye to those mili- even though it prefers a political tias’ lucrative and inhumane trade solution that includes all compo- playing with the lives of African nents of Libyan society. refugees. It remains radically opposed to Turkish and Qatari interfer- A lawless zone ence next to its borders. Algerian Foreign Affairs Minister Sabri If it is true that the ill-fated Boukadoum has stated that Alge- NATO intervention in Libya in 2011 ria “does not accept the presence has thrust the country into a zone of any foreign force, whatever it of lawlessness, delivered it to the is, in this country” and that only demons of tribalism, fundamen- Libyans are able to settle their talism, trafficking of all kinds and problems peacefully with the help transformed it into a corridor for of neighbouring countries. organised crime and a passage If you want peace, prepare for for illegal immigration to Europe, war, said the Romans. To bring there is no doubt that this organ- peace to Libya, it is more than ur- ised chaos is fed with impunity by gent to dismantle the militias and certain parties. render them clawless. This could There have been some attempts be the real and only price of a new to put Libya back on track, such as national contract in that country the Skhirat Conference in 2015. and of stability in the Mediter- The GNA, designated by the ranean, the Maghreb, Africa and Skhirat conference as the only UN- Europe. recognised government in Libya, Powder keg. A woman brandishing a rifle takes part in a demonstration in the eastern Libyan city of has never been invested by the Majed Nehme is a Syrian-French Benghazi to protest against Turkey’s prospective military intervention, January 3. (AFP) parliament sitting in Tobruk or by journalist in Paris. January 5, 2020 17 Viewpoint Iran Assassination of Soleimani will not fundamentally change al-Quds Force

nshallah, God Almighty rewards him with happi- ness in life and martyr- “ dom as his destiny. Of Ali Alfoneh course, not now. The Islamic Republic has workI for him for years to come but let it end with martyrdom,” Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said as he rewarded Major-General Qassem Soleimani with the Order of Zolfaqhar, the highest military order in Iran, last March 11. The United States clearly had a different time frame in mind than Khamenei and, on January 3, Soleimani, the commander of the extraterritorial operations al-Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), was killed in a targeted US drone air strike in In mourning. Iranian regime supporters react during a protest against the assassination of Baghdad. The US Department of Major-General Qassem Soleimani in Tehran, January 3. (Reuters) Defence said the killing took place at the direction of US President Donald Trump. line of command of the groups was it failed to gain a foothold in more than Soleimani in person, In a written statement, Khame- not always clear and they devoted Europe because of the US military transformed the IRGC in its en- nei praised Soleimani as “the significant energy and resources intervention. tirety into a large al-Quds Force. great and honourable commander fighting each other. After the US-led invasion of Iraq Because of the high fatality rate of Islam,” who “fought Satan.” However, by the mid-1980s, the in 2003, the collapse of the Ba’ath among al-Quds Force members in Khamenei depicted Soleimani’s IRGC had executed the heads of regime and American failure to Syria, the IRGC began deploying “martyrdom” as a “divine reward” the unruly parallel organisations establish a viable successor gov- members of the regular force in for that struggle and promised to and all extraterritorial activities ernment, Soleimani directed most that country, which removed the avenge the killing. were concentrated in what today is of his resources to Iraq and, later, barriers between the two other- What was Soleimani’s signifi- known as al-Quds Force. to Syria. wise separate and compartmental- cance? How does his death affect The IRGC leadership chose Apart from Soleimani’s ability ised branches of the IRGC. al-Quds Force and how is Tehran Soleimani as the head of the to take advantage of opportunities Soleimani’s death is not likely likely to react? reformed al-Quds Force because presented to him by US military to significantly change the nature When Soleimani was appointed of the dominant threat percep- adventures in the Middle East, and operations of al-Quds Force, commander of al-Quds Force tion in Tehran at the time. The he had a few contributions of his as those changes are more shaped sometime between September 10, Afghan Taliban posed a significant own and changed the nature of by external circumstances and 1997, and March 21, 1998, he inher- threat to Iran’s eastern borders al-Quds Force in a significant way: systemic structure of al-Quds ited an extremely well-functioning and Soleimani, who had engaged Soleimani became the public face Force and the IRGC. Where and Soleimani changed organisation, which had stream- in guerrilla warfare against the of a once-secret organisation. when Iran strikes back against the the nature of al-Quds lined its operations. Taliban both from Iran and from In doing so, he exposed himself United States is not known but Immediately after the Islamic , was an obvious candi- to considerable danger, which led the Islamic Republic has another Force in a significant Revolution, there were two and date. to his death, but he served as a “martyr” to avenge. way: He became the perhaps three parallel organisa- Once Soleimani took over the role model and a “hero” who mo- tions under the umbrella of the leadership of the organisation, he bilised the masses for a cause he Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at public face of a once- IRGC, all of which were engaged redirected the IRGC’s resources considered sacred. the Arab Gulf States Institute in secret organisation. in extraterritorial operations. The from the former Yugoslavia, where Apart from this, the war in Syria, Washington. Viewpoint Soleimani killing eclipses Iran’s war games with Russia, China

n late December, Iran con- for. Sweeping US sanctions have Iran, has made diplomatic efforts ing the US Embassy in Baghdad. Sabahat Khan ducted war games and naval choked the Iranian economy by to ease tensions between Iran and The withdrawal of Al-Hashed exercises over four days with targeting its oil exports, financial the United States and with Saudi al-Shaabi paramilitary force from Russian and Chinese naval system and other key industries, Arabia but did not participate in the compound, one of the United contingents in the Gulf of such as steel and coal. the drills. States’ most heavily guarded and Oman and the Indian Ocean. Amid growing tensions, Iran China maintains close diplo- sensitive overseas facilities, was IFollowing the Marine Security shot down an advanced American matic and trade ties with Iran followed by the dramatic air strike Belt war games — the first of their drone, known as the Global Hawk as well as with Russia. China is that killed Major-General Qas- kind between the three countries and which has a price tag of more estimated to import about half of sem Soleimani, commander of — Iranian Rear Admiral Hossein than $200 million, in Gulf waters its annual crude oil needs from the IRGC’s al-Quds Force, after he Khanzadi suggested the “era of last June. The United States the Gulf, with Iran traditionally its arrived at Baghdad International American free action in the region responded to growing threats in main supplier. Airport. is over” and that US forces would the Gulf by bolstering military Owing to US sanctions, Iran is US officials said the operation need to “leave the region.” reinforcements and stepping up now the seventh-largest sup- targeting Soleimani, which may Iranian Navy and Islamic surveillance operations, including plier to China, although Beijing is lead to serious reprisal attacks by Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) establishing a multinational naval believed to have remained Iran’s Iran and its allies and which was contingents conducted war games task force and the International largest oil buyer last year. Iran’s oil condemned by Russia and China and naval exercises involving Maritime Security Construct exports have collapsed to less than among others, was necessary to drills for rescue and targeting based in to help secure 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) from avert “imminent attacks” against operations with three Russian regional waterways. a peak of 2.8 million bpd before US targets by the IRGC. warships and a Chinese guided- Rear Admiral Gholamreza the United States imposed its most It remains to be seen if Iran’s missile destroyer over a 17,000 Tahani, commander of the Iranian stringent sanctions regime. maiden joint war games and naval sq.km area in the Gulf of Oman naval flotilla, described the war China participated in the war exercises with Russia, which has and the Indian Ocean. games as representing “the new games and exercises with a single increasingly sought to highlight The Gulf of Oman is a sensi- triangle of power in the sea” guided-missile destroyer as part its regional relevance in the Gulf, tive waterway that connects the while suggesting their biggest of what it described a “normal and China, which may want to highly strategic Strait of Hormuz, achievement was to demonstrate military exchange” while sug- enhance its own regional profile, through which approximately that Iran could not be isolated. gesting it was “not necessarily transpire towards some type of a one-fifth of the world’s oil passes. Russia and, increasingly, China connected with the regional situ- loose military alliance to coun- Rear Admiral The strait has become the world’s are identified by the United States ation.” ter American primacy but that most dangerous flashpoint as as the biggest challenges to its The exercises coincided with a remains an unlikely possibility. Gholamreza Tahani, Iran-US tensions escalated follow- global primacy and dominance rocket attack on an Iraqi military As far as Iran’s international commander of the ing US President Donald Trump’s but neither is keen on mounting a base that killed an American isolation is concerned, Tehran’s Iranian naval flotilla, decision to withdraw from the Ira- direct challenge. civilian defence contractor and dangerous standoff with Washing- nian nuclear accord in 2018. It was reported in December wounded four service members. ton is one that military exchanges described the war The past year has witnessed that Khanzadi invited Pakistan The United States responded with with other international powers, games as representing numerous attacks on tankers and to join the war games when he air strikes on Iran-backed forces even Russia and China, still do not oil facilities in the Arab Gulf that visited Islamabad. Pakistan, in Iraq and Syria that killed 25 Al- drastically change the equation “the new triangle of the United States and its Western which shares cordial relations Hashed al-Shaabi fighters and led as developments in recent days power in the sea.” allies have held Iran responsible and a nearly 1,000km border with to pro-Iran demonstrators besieg- confirm. 18 January 5, 2020 Viewpoint East West Iran tops list of Middle East challenges for the US in 2020

al-Quds force commander, General Qassem Soleimani, in a strike near Gregory Baghdad International Airport. Before the latter attack, members Aftandilian of the militia stormed the so-called Green Zone in Baghdad and lay siege to the US Embassy. Although the siege ended after two days, it o paraphrase actor could resume and there are likely to Al Pacino as Michael be more calls in Iraq, not just from Corleone in the movie, militia members, for the withdraw- “The Godfather Part al of US troops. III”: Whenever I want to It is unclear how Iran is going to get out, they keep pull- retaliate, as Tehran might not want Ting me back in! to directly target US troops, know- That sentiment seems to en- ing that its military is no match for capsulate the Trump administra- the US armed forces. tion’s policy in the Middle East. However, Tehran could retaliate Its inclination was to reduce US by using its proxy forces. Regard- involvement in the region and less, it seems Iran is going to pivot towards China. That is why occupy much of Trump’s foreign US President Donald Trump was policy attention in 2020. quick to declare victory over the Ironically, a few days earlier, Islamic State (ISIS) and was eager to Trump stated that he does not withdraw US troops from Syria. want war with Iran. This reflects Reality is another matter. First, his position that he hopes to use he was slow to realise his maxi- in the 2020 presidential campaign mum pressure campaign on Iran that the United States should avoid was not going to be cost-free. His “endless, stupid wars” in the Mid- Iran strategy seems to centre on the dle East. hope that, with enough economic However, by ordering the killing pain, the Iranian people would re- of Soleimani, he upped the ante volt against the regime and a new, and it is hard to see the political more moderate government would off-ramp, especially since he is Risky gambles. US President Donald Trump (L) listens to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during a replace it. unlikely to end the maximum pres- cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, last October. (AFP) Although there have been wide- sure campaign on Iran that has put spread protests in Iran, the regime the Iranian leadership in a corner. has held firm. Not only have there Some political commentators a desire for “others” — meaning the which might soon deploy forces other win for the Israeli right wing been no cracks in the security ap- noted that Trump’s military actions Turks and the Russians — to handle there. Those actions have further and Trump will use it politically to paratus, the regime has upped the have sidelined calls in Iraq, even matters in Syria, much of the Wash- deepened regional fissures. hit the Democrats, who support a ante through a series of provocative among many Shias, for Iran’s role in ington bureaucracy is reluctant to After several years of neglect, two-state solution. actions. Iraq to be reduced. cede the ground to those forces in the United States recently tried What Trump may not realise is The latest one, which resulted in Syria poses another major chal- addition to Assad’s troops, which to re-engage in the Libyan crisis, that the plan’s unveiling may cause the death of a US civilian contrac- lenge for the United States. have re-entered the border region advising Haftar to halt his offen- more violence in the West Bank tor, was reportedly carried out by After his disastrous decision to while also moving further into sive — to no avail — largely because and Gaza, as disaffected Palestin- Kata’ib Hezbollah, an Iraqi Shia pull US troops out of the north- Idlib province and creating a new Washington does not want Russia, ians take out their anger against militia with ties to Iran. eastern border region of Syria, humanitarian crisis. which strongly supports Haftar, to Israel and the United States. Hence, Believing it had to respond to Trump settled on retaining about Although Trump has made noises become even more entrenched in Trump’s Deal of the Century may that attack, the Trump administra- 600 US troops south of that area, about the latter crisis, he does not that country as well as the concern become the “Deal of More Instabil- tion not only struck this militia, near the oil fields in Deir ez-Zor. want to get further involved in that ISIS will take advantage of the ity,” causing the United States to killing 25 of its members, it killed In addition to “protecting the Syria. Nonetheless, as long as there chaos to rebound. become involved solely for the pur- a militia leader and the Iranian oil,” which has problematic legal are US forces in Syria, Washington Concerning the Israeli-Palestini- pose of dampening the violence. issues associated with it, the re- will remain part of the Syrian equa- an situation, 2020 might finally see The Middle East, therefore, will maining US troops are to go after tion. the unveiling of the Trump Deal continue to “pull” the United States The Middle East will ISIS remnants with the Kurdish-led Meanwhile, Libya poses another of the Century peace plan if the in despite its interests elsewhere. Syrian Democratic Forces. problem for the United States. Israelis are finally able to form a continue to “pull” the Amid numerous reports of ISIS The offensive by strongman government after their third try in Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer in United States in rebounding in Syria and Iraq, it Khalifa Haftar to take Tripoli has March. the Pardee School of Global Studies seems that the US troops may be caused the Government of National However, because the plan is ru- at Boston University and a former despite its interests staying in Syria for some time. Accord, ensconced in that city, to moured not to include Palestinian US State Department Middle East elsewhere. Even though Trump has expressed seek the military aid of Turkey, sovereignty, it will be seen as an- analyst. Largely terror-free holiday season in the West but wariness remains

or relatives of people presents a major challenge to se- Harpon, a Muslim convert, was a Interior Minister Christophe Cas- killed in Africa and curity services. From 2013-18, an civilian police worker with clear- taner has spoken of the success of those wounded in a analysis by the European Parlia- ance to access highly sensitive security services in thwarting 59 Colin Randall machete attack at a ment stated, 1,765 such recruits security files. planned attacks on French terri- rabbi’s home in the arrived in their native Western Khan’s and Harpon’s actions tory in the past six years. A senior upstate New York ham- European countries from Iraq and highlight the unpredictable British police commander told of Flet of Monsey, there will be scant Syria. nature of the terrorist menace to terrorist outrages being prevented comfort in the knowledge that, in Although France was the prin- society and demonstrate the ex- “all the time.” the West, the festive season oth- cipal source of ISIS’s European tent to which serious harm can be The message is clear: ISIS’s erwise passed without a terrorist recruits — 1,910, twice as many caused by so-called lone wolves. ability to carry out or influence attack. as the next biggest, Germany — These are the militants inspired terror attacks on Western soil has In Burkina Faso and Somalia, Britain experienced the highest by propaganda urging attacks by diminished but not disappeared. massacres admitted to or blamed return rate among those who any means possible on citizens of Charlie Winter, senior research on Islamist fighters left more than travelled to conflict zones to join countries belonging to the US-led fellow at the International Centre 120 people dead. the group, about 400, or 45% on coalition that inflicted defeat on for the Study of Radicalisation The motivation for the violent estimates from Europol and the ISIS but essentially acting alone and Political Violence at King’s intrusion during Hanukkah cel- British Home Office. Germany without organised support net- College London, was thinking of ebrations in Monsey December 28 again had the next highest rate, works. the in particular remains in doubt. 33%, whereas the Netherlands On December 27, Russian po- when he told the Guardian news- New York Governor Andrew and Spain scored much lower at lice, acting on a tip-off from US paper that the group’s appetite for Cuomo used the phrase “domes- 18%. intelligence, arrested two men terror attacks was “greater than tic terrorism” and the suspected The presence of such commit- suspected of plotting a New Year’s it’s ever been” despite military attacker, Grafton Thomas, 37, the ted individuals on British terri- attack on a shopping centre and defeat in Syria. son of immigrants from Guyana tory is a serious test for stretched cathedral in St. Petersburg. One Across Europe, in the United and, by some reports, a convert to police and intelligence resources, of them was reported to have States and Canada and beyond, Islam, is said to have kept journals even though the Home Office said professed allegiance to ISIS. In the absence of a seasonal terror- and made internet searches sug- last year that all had been inves- Austria, three Chechens were ist attack causing loss of life was gesting anti-Semitic sentiments. tigated and a “significant propor- detained earlier in December and welcome but the need to avoid However, there is also evidence of tion” assessed as arousing no accused of planning to attack a complacency was reinforced as mental illness, specifically schizo- further national security concern. Christmas market in Vienna and 2020 began and the assassination phrenia and bipolar disorder. The London Bridge attack by possibly to carry out atrocities by US forces of Qassem Soleimani, One of the five victims, Joseph Usman Khan on November 29 in Germany, Luxembourg and powerful head of the Islamic Neumann, 70, was critically in- and the killing by Mickael Har- France as well as Austria. Republican Guard Corps’ elite jured. His family said he will have pon of four people at the Paris It is not difficult to imagine al-Quds unit, raised the possibility permanent brain damage even if police headquarters on October 3 the carnage that could have been of retaliation that could include The absence of a he regains consciousness. showed that the threat does not caused had any of these plans state-sponsored terrorism. seasonal terrorist If Christmas and New Year were end with homecoming jihadists. materialised. elsewhere mercifully free of the Khan, killed by police after stab- Arrests were made in Den- Colin Randall, a journalist attack causing loss of terrorist outrages, that should be bing to death two people involved mark and the United Kingdom in based in London and France, life was welcome but a source of relief, not jubilation. in a rehabilitation scheme that he December by counterterrorism worked in various roles for the The return, especially to Eu- joined following a jail term for al- officers fearing unspecified Islam- Daily Telegraph from 1977-2006 provides no excuse rope, of large numbers of people Qaeda-inspired terrorist offences, ist attacks. Since the Paris police and was executive editor of the for complacency. who joined the Islamic State (ISIS) had never visited Iraq or Syria. headquarters killings, French National at its launch in 2008. January 5, 2020 19 News & Analysis East West US faceoff with Iran enters new phase

Emily Przyborowski

Washington

ranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani was killed in a US air strike on a military base near I Baghdad International Airport. Soleimani was commander of al- Quds Force, the foreign branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy head of the Iraqi Hashed al- Shaabi paramilitary force, was also killed in the January 3 strike. The attack came shortly after US President Donald Trump ordered the US Army 82nd Airborne Divi- sion to deploy to Kuwait. At least 750 paratroopers were to be sent to the region, said US Secretary of De- fence Mark Esper.

Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group “Some of [the] Iranian partners who have looser ties to Tehran might decide to take matters into their own hands without awaiting a green light from Tehran.”

The entire brigade of approxi- mately 4,000 soldiers has been told to prepare for possible deployment. Tighter security. US Marines with 2nd Battalion, 7th Marines, reinforce the US Embassy Compound in Baghdad, January 2. (Reuters) The United States has deployed nearly 14,000 troops in the past six months to combat Iranian influ- lah Ali Khamenei vowed “severe target the United States “without some of [the] Iranian partners who regional extremism, it becomes a ence. revenge” for the attack and the Ira- risking an American conventional have looser ties to Tehran might de- critical buffer that limits Iran as a Unrest began following funerals nian security forces reportedly met retaliation on Iran.” cide to take matters into their own threat,” Cordesman said in a CSIS for 25 Iraqi militiamen killed in a to discuss retaliation. Ali Vaez, director of the Iran hands without awaiting a green commentary. US air strike December 29. The at- The January 3 attack may seri- Project at the International Crisis light from Tehran,” tweeted Vaez. Cordesman asserted that an inde- tack targeted the Iran-backed mi- ously change the face of the conflict Group, writing on Twitter, said: The events could increase in- pendent Iraq may have the greatest litia Kata’ib Hezbollah, which the between Washington and Tehran. “Tehran might calculate that a pro- stability in Iraq, which Iran could positive effects on US security. United States said is responsible for Ramzy Mardini, a fellow with the portional response might not in- take advantage of, Haddad said. “It “Ultimately, the US might also an attack that killed a US contractor US Institute of Peace, said the un- vite a US counterattack or it might could set Iraq along the path of in- find that an independent Iraq — and wounded several US troops. precedented nature of the attack deem a disproportionate response ternal conflict and that’s something rather than a formal strategic part- Analysts said further conflict makes it difficult to predict how it a deterrence against further escala- Iran could very easily instigate,” he ner — might be the key to any last- within Iraq is likely. “If Iran does will change the current situation. tion by a US president who says he said. ing security arrangements in the need to respond and make a per- “It’s likely that all actors on all sides is averse to Middle Eastern quag- Iraqi stability is crucial for Wash- Gulf that guaranteed Iran security formance out of this, the fear is that will be playing things by ear in the mires.” ington’s broader interests in the without leaving the rest of the re- there will be something more than short term, which is a recipe for Vaez said the attack may pro- Middle East, said Anthony Cord- gion vulnerable,” he wrote. just loading rockets at embassies,” miscalculation,” he said. vide an opening for Iranian al- esman of the Centre for Strategic said Fanar Haddad of Singapore Mardini said the attack may serve lies and affiliates to carrying out and International Studies (CSIS). “A Emily Przyborowski is an University’s Middle East Institute. as a lesson to Iran that it can no their own strikes. strong and unified Iraq not only is Arab Weekly correspondent in Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatol- longer use its affiliates in Iraq to “An equally grave concern is that the best practical defence against Washington. Viewpoint Trump has thrown the dice; now Tehran’s turn

he decision by US of Americans, including military Trump may have miscalculated President Bashar Assad’s war against President Donald Trump personnel. there because a strike against rebels in Syria, the rise of pro- to order an attack on Iran’s revenge now will be military installations to make the Iranian paramilitaries in Iraq, the Martin Jay Iranian Major-General equally calculated. It’s hard not to point to the Iranians that they fight against the Islamic State and Qassem Soleimani was underestimate how powerful and crossed a line with the drone “many battles beyond.” not a mistake but a how respected Soleimani was to the shooting would have been more It is not so well known that he led T“correction” of his decision to back Iranians — and how feared he was by effective because it would have Hezbollah’s war against Israel’s 2006 down following a drone attack in his enemies. made the Iranians reflect. invasion from inside Lebanon itself. June. It’s also about a Twitter attack Any suggestion that a retaliation Now there will be no period of Soleimani regularly taunted from Iran’s supreme leader. will be weighty and one that would reflection. The Soleimani strike is Trump on Twitter and made threats Soleimani was assassinated show the world that “de-escalation,” so huge and has such egregious directly to him but it was not his January 3 in an American air strike which former British Ambassador to ramifications that revenge can be tweets that were the deal-breaker. in Baghdad. Very few people will Lebanon Tom Fletcher talks about, the only policy. Trump’s decision to give the understand how colossal a move the is unrealistic and we must consider The question is whether Iran and assassination the green light in decision by Trump was and what the the sheer speed of a statement by the United States can hold back from preference over a military strike payback will be. Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary- crossing a line that leads to full-out against pro-Iran Iraqi units that were This strike is much bigger than General Hassan Nasrallah, who war. Western commentators are apparently planning attacks against anything Trump has done in the spoke of avenging Soleimani’s death right to argue that Iran will not want US forces has taken the threat of region. Geopolitical analysts wonder by “resistance fighters worldwide.” to go to war but the Iranians’ choice a war to a higher level and should how it compares to his air strikes That was a statement Nasrallah of retaliation is critical. be seen more rationally as another in Syria or his decision in May 2017 didn’t need clearance from Tehran Kidnappings, assassinations and chapter in the war with Iran since to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, to make. car bombings against the United 1979. which has led to the crisis in the first During this period of high tension States and its Israeli and Arab allies The war has shifted from proxy to place. between Iran and US allies in the will be inevitable and perhaps timed direct, which indicates that, despite No comparison. region, the assassination marks a to coincide with Trump’s 2020 reports to the contrary, Trump is One could argue that the United sea change in Trump’s capricious re-election bid. Probably a war in ready for a hands-on war with Iran. Kidnappings, States’ downing of an Iranian and craven policies, which left Iraqis the Middle East during an election It also shows we are living in an assassinations and airliner in July 1988 in the Strait of dancing in the streets. Something campaign would not give Trump a era in which not only US foreign Hormuz — a military blunder by a snapped. Perhaps the decision to boost but make him look foolish. policy is conducted on a Twitter car bombings against commander of an aircraft carrier order the strike against Soleimani Could Trump win an election whim but is also guided by those of the United States and who believed that an Iranian airliner was driven by the unprecedented during a period in which body its foes. Watch carefully the reaction was a fighter jet descending — also tweet fired directly at Trump bags carrying the remains of US from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab its Israeli and Arab cannot compare. by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali personnel were arriving from the Emirates and Israel for a clue as to allies will be Given that the decision to shoot Khamenei, who claimed” “you Middle East? whether this has galvanised Trump’s inevitable and down the civilian airliner was a (Trump) can’t do anything.” For more than 20 years, Soleimani Iran strategy or left it compromised genuine military misjudgement, it It also makes analysts reflect on was the mastermind behind Iran’s because the Soleimani strike places perhaps timed to is worth noting what Iran’s response Trump’s decision to back down after activities across the Middle East them — in particular, Riyadh — coincide with was: cold, calculated revenge Iran shot down a US drone last June, and its real foreign minister when it under a spotlight. against an American airliner, Pan when, at the last moment, he pulled came to matters of war and peace. Trump’s 2020 Am Flight 103 six months later, three back, reportedly because of advice The BBC reported he was Martin Jay is a freelance writer in re-election bid. days before Christmas, packed full from US newscaster Tucker Carlson. considered an architect of Syrian Morocco. 20 January 5, 2020 Economy

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait agree Briefs Emaar not to restore shared oil production selling Burj Khalifa viewing decks

Jareer Elass Dubai’s Emaar Properties said it was considering raising capital against cash flows generated by the observation decks on its Burj uwait and Saudi Arabia Khalifa skyscraper but was not put to rest a political looking at selling them. dispute involving shut- Emaar “would like to confirm in oil production from that it is not selling the At the Top shared Neutral Zone business” and is “considering a fields, ending a 5-year structured transaction wherein Kimpasse that included thorny sover- financing is being raised against eignty and border issues. cash flows of At the Top,” Emaar The agreements reached by the said in a statement. Gulf neighbours set the stage for a At more than 828 metres, the resumption of around 500,000 bar- Burj Khalifa is twice as tall as New rels per day (bpd) of crude output. York’s Empire State Building and Riyadh and Kuwait will take a nearly three times the height of measured approach to restoring the Eiffel Tower in Paris. output, however, because they are committed to restraining production (Reuters) as part of the collaboration between OPEC and independent producers in support of higher oil prices. The Kuwaiti and Saudi govern- Egypt, Sudan ments agreed on December 24 to restore shared oil production from to operate joint the offshore Khafji field and onshore Consensus. Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Ahmed Nasser al-Mohamed (L) and Saudi Oil Minister Prince Wafra field in the Neutral Zone, Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud during an official ceremony in Kuwait City, December 24. (KUNA) electricity grid following a production shutdown at Khafji in October 2014 and output Egypt and Sudan will begin halted at Wafra in May 2015. the GCC heads of state meeting in in May 2015, following Chevron’s in- Minister Khaled al-Fadhel signed operating a joint electricity grid Negotiations between the two December. sistence that it was unable to safely a memorandum of understand- as of January 12 with a capacity of countries over the disputed opera- The Neutral Zone covers approxi- operate the field. Chevron had been ing “related to the procedures for 50 megawatts, Egypt’s state news tions had been on and off since 2015, mately 5,770 sq.km and is subject a source of tension between the resuming petroleum production on agency MENA said. with expectations raised for a deal to treaties dating to the 1920s. The Gulf neighbours since Saudi Arabia’s both sides,” a tweet by the Saudi Oil The project’s cost has reached to be reached as far back as 2016 and zone was formally partitioned decision in 2009 to renew the US oil Ministry stated. 509 million Egyptian pounds more recently in early 2019. between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in firm’s operating concession for Wa- At a ceremony at the Khafji field ($31.7 million) and spans 1,000km, The Kuwaiti and Saudi govern- 1970, with the two countries agree- fra for 30 years. Kuwait was miffed on December 25, Prince Abdulaziz MENA said, citing Egyptian Energy ments had been eager to resolve the ing to divide the area and incorpo- at what it believed was an arbitrary said production from the field Minister Mohamed Shaker. dispute as part of wider efforts to rate each half into their respective decision by the Saudis, contending would be recovered to 320,000 end energy conflicts among Gulf Co- territories while sharing and jointly it had not been appropriately con- bpd by the end of 2020. Chevron (Reuters) operation Council (GCC) neighbours. managing the crude produced from sulted about the extension. said that it expected the Wafra Saudi Oil Minister Prince Ab- the oil fields. Together, the Wafra At a ceremony December 24 field, which has a crude production dulaziz bin Salman Al Saud pri- and Khafji fields produce around in Kuwait, Prince Abdulaziz and capacity of 220,000 bpd, to return to oritised settling the Neutral Zone 500,000 bpd. Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sheikh full operation within 12 months. Kuwait Petroleum conflict in his previous capacity as Citing environmental reasons, Nasser Sabah Nasser al-Mohammed While technical issues dictate a Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saudi Arabia abruptly shut down al-Sabah signed two agreements on relatively gradual restoration of pro- Corporation with a breakthrough in talks report- the Khafji field in October 2014. The the final demarcation of land and duction from the two fields, the two edly occurring in July. Following his Khafji field is operated by Al-Khafji maritime borders in the Neutral OPEC members are mindful of the introduces appointment as oil minister in Sep- Joint Operations Company, a joint Zone, appending previous border effect of returning some 500,000 tember, that priority took on greater venture between Saudi state oil firm agreements. bpd to saturated oil markets. Both new pricing precedence. Kuwaiti Emir Sabah Saudi Aramco’s subsidiary Aramco Kuwaiti Assistant Foreign Minister Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have dem- al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah heavily Gulf Operations Company and for Legal Affairs Ghanem al-Ghanem onstrated output restraint as part of mechanism lobbied for a final resolution during Kuwait Gulf Oil Company, a subsidi- said the appended border pacts are the coalition of 21 producers known ary of Kuwaiti state oil firm Kuwait “more accurate and more defini- as OPEC+. In December, the group Kuwait Petroleum Corpora- Petroleum Corporation. tive,” outlining a clear-cut officially agreed to deepen existing produc- tion said it was modifying its Asia In retaliation for the Khafji stop- recognised border between the two tion cuts of 1.2 million bpd by an crude oil pricing marker. The agreements page, the Kuwaitis denied visas for countries in accordance with previ- additional 500,000 bpd through The change for the pricing reached by the Gulf employees of US oil firm Chevron, ous agreements. The agreements March. Fully recovered Neutral mechanism of its Kuwait crude neighbours set the the company that operates the spell out complete sovereignty for Zone output, therefore, may receive oil bound for the east of Suez is to Wafra field on behalf of Saudi Arabia Kuwait in the northern portion of a better welcome by the oil markets take effect February 1, the com- stage for a resumption along with Kuwaiti state oil part- the zone and the same for Saudi later in 2020 than earlier. pany said in a statement. of around 500,000 ners, and refused customs clearance Arabia in the southern portion, Kuwait Petroleum Corpora- for field equipment. providing specific language not Jareer Elass reports from tion’s marker was the average barrels per day (bpd) Those moves resulted in the included in the earlier agreements. Washington on energy issues for of Platts Dubai and Platts Oman of crude output. Wafra field’s output being curtailed Prince Abdulaziz and Kuwaiti Oil The Arab Weekly. assessments. The new marker will replace Platts Oman with Dubai Mercantile Exchange Oman while maintaining the Platts Dubai com- UAE eyes new incentives for small enterprises ponent.

The Arab Weekly staff for SMEs has created an attractive Afifi said that the past year has connect projects with international (Reuters) environment, through facilities and seen an increase in projects that are companies investing or searching establishing initiatives, to help en- part of the digital system of the na- for commercial and investment London trepreneurs enter the market. He tional programme for SMEs to reach opportunities in the United Arab added that the efforts enhanced 2,000 entrepreneurs, compared to Emirates. fficials at the National Pro- entrepreneurs’ ability to increase the 1,500 projects in 2018. He said He emphasised this would en- Lebanon to gramme for Small and Me- market shares and obtain invest- he expected that number to reach hance the exchange of knowledge dium Projects and Enter- ment. 5,000 entrepreneurs by the end of and access to innovative practices probe ‘suspicious’ O prises in the United Arab 2020. involving development of start-ups capital flight Emirates unveiled a plan to support The plan includes He said the plan will focus on and SMEs. and stimulate small and medium expanding a membership programmes to help entrepreneurs The plan includes expanding a develop projects and raise leader- membership database and services Lebanese central bank Gover- enterprises and entrepreneurship. database and services Adeeb al-Afifi, director of the ship, innovation and technical ca- provided for projects, as well as nor Riad Salameh said he would programme at the UAE Ministry of provided for projects, as pabilities. implementing the national pro- investigate reports of large trans- Economy, said the entrepreneurial well as implementing the Organisers said they plan 50 train- gramme to support start-ups. It fers of money abroad, which, if and small and medium enterprises national programme to ing sessions for more than 3,000 includes the Canton International confirmed, would mark a violation (SMEs) sector was an area of focus support start-ups. entrepreneurs across the Emirates, Fair in China, taking part in a trade of banking restrictions curtailing because of its role in developing in addition to a programme to train delegation to the Netherlands and such transactions. the country’s economy and increas- Afifi pointed out that the plan SMEs trainers. Afifi explained that activating memoranda of under- “If there are suspicious funds, ing its diversity, sustainability and for 2020 included activities to em- the programme would connect standing for cooperation with Swe- we will be able to find out,” Sala- competitiveness, as well as pro- power entrepreneurs and encour- entrepreneurs with the European den and Azerbaijan. meh said. moting innovation and knowledge age and enable SME owners to learn Business Network, which includes There are also plans to partici- Faced with a grinding US dollar in economic activities and the busi- best practices and trends in entre- 11,000 companies, to exchange in- pate in the Franchise Business Ex- liquidity crisis, Lebanon’s banks ness sector. preneurship development. formation and experiences, organ- hibition in Riyadh, the Small and have, since September, imposed Specialised programmes for en- He said the plan is designed to ise events and discuss opportuni- Medium Enterprises Exhibition in increasingly tight restrictions on trepreneurs are to be featured, enhance administrative and com- ties for partnerships. Dubai, the Emirates Exhibition for dollar withdrawals and transfers along with completing a link with mercial capabilities and innovative He pointed out that the projects Small and Medium Enterprises, the abroad in an attempt to conserve the European Business Network, practices to allow the companies listed in the programme would par- Ras al-Khaimah International Ex- dwindling foreign currency re- organising an SME Forum, partici- to achieve commercial success, be- ticipate in the Small and Medium hibition for Small and Medium En- serves. pating in exhibitions and competi- come sustainable and expand ac- Enterprises Forum during an an- terprises and the Arab World Award tions for SMEs and innovation. tivities as well as connecting them nual investment conference. The for Innovative Small and Medium (Agence France-Presse) Afifi said the national programme to new regional and global markets. forum will be an opportunity to Enterprises. January 5, 2020 21 Economy Morocco’s red fruit conquer foreign markets

A leap in production. A female farm labourer picks strawberries in the Kenitra province countryside of Morocco. (AFP)

Mohamed al-Alawi duction of the same fruit in Spain, a boosting state revenues and provid- is 197,000 tonnes this year. About berries, 10,360 tonnes of blueberries major competitor for Moroccan pro- ing jobs. 140,000 tonnes were earmarked for and 6,200 tonnes of raspberries. duce in the European Union. Never- The ministry said that good re- export. Conditioning and packaging crops Rabat theless, Moroccan red fruit profes- sults at the production level and Data from the Union of Moroccan take place in 62 specialised units all sionals won shares in new markets, the high demand for strawberries Fruits and Vegetables Professionals over Morocco, with 27 facilities in orocco has intensified ef- including Britain and North America. in European markets contributed to stated that strawberry cultivation, the Rabat-Sale-Kenitra region, 13 in forts to boost exports of The red fruit sector in Morocco is a significant increase in the acreage 40% of farmland devoted to red the Tangier-Tetouan-Al Hoceima re- red fruit and enter new a driving sector of the economy be- dedicated to the fruit. fruit, dominates most areas reserved gion, 20 in the southern region and M markets, despite intense cause of broad export prospects. In Al-Wazzarani al-Anqoud, vice- for red fruit. Raspberries, which are two units in the central region. competition and climatic challenges addition to Europe, Moroccan red president of the Red Fruits Export- growing in popularity among farm- Moroccan red fruit growers have threatening the sector’s sustainabil- fruit are available in the Middle East, ers Association, emphasised that ers, are the second-largest crop. Red focused on improving their crops, ity. Asia and the United States. Moroccan red fruit products have cranberries have a very high added which allowed them to enter mar- Indicators suggest the annual pro- Moroccan Minister of Agriculture strong shares in major foreign mar- value in Morocco because they are kets on five continents. The Euro- duction of red fruit in Morocco is ex- and Maritime Fishing Aziz Akhan- kets. He called for continuing to exported to about 40 countries. pean Union accounted for 90% of pected to total about 197,000 tonnes nouch said Moroccan products have target additional markets and to The union said that two-thirds of Moroccan red fruit exports the past this season, an increase of 84% com- secured larger market shares in for- strengthen Morocco’s position in tra- the sites where red fruit cultivation two years. pared with 10 years ago. eign markets and entered new mar- ditional foreign markets the country was concentrated were in the region The remaining share of red fruit Faced with prices falling 25% in kets. Ministry data indicate that the deals with. of Larache, followed by Loukkos exports went to Asian markets (5%), European markets this season, espe- red fruit sector is providing more Total area allocated to the cultiva- and Souss-Massa, which account for Gulf markets (1.5%) and about 3.5% cially for red cranberries, Moroccan than 10 million working days, half of tion of red fruit in Morocco increased about 30% of production. went to the Free Trade Agreement farmers turned to the domestic mar- which are in the Rabat-Sale-Kenitra from 3,035 hectares in 2009 to about Official data show that the Rabat- countries of North America, Africa, ket. Some farmers ceased exporting region. 9,000 hectares during the past two Sale-Kenitra region has produced, South America and Central and East- to focus on domestic markets to sus- With an annual turnover of more years. in the past two years, about 127,000 ern Europe. tain production growth. than $312 million, nearly 90% from The increase in the cultivated ar- tonnes of red fruit — about 65% of Sector professionals attributed the exports, the sector plays an impor- eas led to a leap in fruit production. the local production. That includes Mohamed al-Alawi is a Moroccan price fall to a large increase in pro- tant social and economic role in The sector’s average production more than 110,000 tonnes of straw- writer. Tunisia’s year of the foreign debt

The Arab Weekly staff and European countries. the borrowed funds will not go to in- Economists said Tunisia’s abil- vestment and development projects. ity to fulfil its external financial ob- They will not even be enough to Tunis ligations has become questionable, cover the debt,” Meddeb said, point- stressing that defaulting on its debts ing out that development represents unisia is embarking on a cru- would place the country in a spiral of a major problem for Tunisia, which cial phase that marks a turn- the debt rescheduling. Such an out- has never experienced a similar situ- ing point in the generous in- come would be a major blow to the ation. T ternational support afforded country’s reputation in international Many experts say the country’s to the country since 2011 in the form financial markets because Tunisia predicament is worse than imagined. of loans and grants to support its has never fallen behind on repaying Tunisia started the new year without democratic transition. debts since independence. promises for external resources it The next Tunisian government As the country gets further mired needs and which were estimated at will have the unenviable task of in its political crisis, more economic $4.3 billion, especially considering starting to pay off external and inter- alarms sound. In December, the IMF the IMF’s refusal to release the re- nal debts accumulated since before withheld disbursement of $1.2 bil- mainder of the 2016 loan. the 2011 revolution. lion to Tunisia, the sixth and seventh “2019 was a difficult year for Tuni- instalments of a 2016 loan, provided sia at all levels, especially with regard that the required reforms are com- to its external debt, which has grown Tunisia started the new pleted. greatly, and that makes the coming Crucial phase. A view of the Central Bank in Tunis. (Reuters) year without promises for Tunisian economist Radhi Meddeb challenges very difficult to meet,” external resources it said 2020 is going to be more difficult said economist Ezzeddine Saidane. needs and which were for Tunisia than previous years, giv- He called for a rapid interven- national financial market. Tunisian officials and the IMF would discuss a estimated at $4.3 billion. en that economic indicators do not tion to save the economy through state institutions tried to alleviate new programme. bode well and are exacerbated by a a structural reform programme. the public’s fears by saying they are There have been questions regard- Figures submitted by economic deepening political crisis. He told a “President Kais Saied must con- searching for alternatives based on ing the loans and donations obtained experts indicate that, since the revo- Tunis radio station that 2020 marks vene all parties concerned and a new programme to be discussed by successive administrations since lution, Tunisia has obtained nearly a new phase for Tunisia since it rep- make a complete and serious diag- with donor institutions. the 2011 revolution. Reports indicate $36 billion in donations and loans resents the first time the country will nosis of the situation and then em- Tunisian Central Bank Governor that 2020 and 2021 will be the most by many parties, including the Euro- be paying off more debt than it will bark on a comprehensive reform Marouane El Abassi, speaking of the difficult for Tunisia at all levels. A pean Union, the World Bank and the be borrowing. process,” he said. IMF decision to withhold its loan report by the Tunisian Accounting International Monetary Fund (IMF). “Tunisia will be paying 12 billion The issue of the difficulty of set- disbursement, said: “Tunisia has Office (Financial Court) last March Funds of various amounts and inter- dinars ($4.3 billion) in debt service, tling accumulated debts creates an- accomplished many of the reforms indicated that, by 2020 and 2021, Tu- est rates came from the African De- while it will only borrow 11.7 billion other problem for Tunisia related to agreed upon and other reforms are nisia will be required to pay off 123 velopment Bank and friendly Arab dinars ($4.2 billion). This means that obtaining new loans from the inter- being completed.” He said Tunisian external loans dating from 2012-16. 22 January 5, 2020 Society

Jordan’s rising polygamy problem sparks controversy

Roufan Nahhas

Amman

alwa, a 41-year-old mother of three, said her life fell to pieces when she learnt of S her husband’s betrayal. She said she could not understand why he would marry a younger woman, which made her feel obsolete and broken, a condition she shares with thousands of Jordanian “first wives.” “There were no signs or even a hint of what he intended to do. He told me a simple sentence at din- ner: ‘I found another wife and we are now together. You are welcome to stay or leave’,” Salwa (not her real name) recalled her 52-year-old husband saying.

30,538 polygamy contracts were registered among the 402,088 marriage contracts in Jordan over the past five years.

“For a moment, I did not under- stand and I thought he was joking because before that he had com- plained and joked about the cold food he was eating but he was seri- ous,” she said. “I had the choice to accept and move on or ask for a divorce and face the harsh reality of being la- belled a divorced woman by our Hidden problem. A Jordanian couple on their wedding day in Zarqa, east of Amman. (Reuters) society, which can be unmerciful and cruel because they will brand me as the woman who stood in the her home?” Based in Karak, south of Amman, become a second wife. Marriage 15-49, stated that 4% of women re- face of her husband’s happiness.” Jordan’s chief of Islamic justice, the group has had mass weddings should be based on love and under- spondents said their husbands had A report by the Supreme Judge Abdul Karim Khasawneh, said al- and seeks to eliminate dowries. standing with the aim of building more than one wife but only 1% of Department, an independent gov- most 7% of the 77,700 marriage Many Middle Eastern countries a home, not breaking another’s,” men admitted polygamy. ernment body connected directly contracts signed in 2017 ended in permit polygamy under Islamic Hamed said. The issue of multiple marriages to the prime minister’s office, divorce within one year. The total law, which states that a man can “A friend of mine was divorced is a very sensitive subject in the stated that 30,538 polygamy con- number of divorces during the year marry as many as four wives if he last year as she did not accept to be Arab region. Many say the Quran, tracts were registered among the was 25,942, nearly one-third of is financially able to treat them all called the ‘first wife’ and now she in that regard, is manipulated and 402,088 marriage contracts in Jor- all marriages. In 2018, there were equally. The practice, however, is is doing fine with plans to marry misinterpreted to allow men to dan over the past five years. 20,279 divorces. rare and many women in the Mid- her fiance. I think our society ex- have more than one wife. A Saudi A resigned Salwa said she accept- While several women’s organisa- dle East say polygamy has no place aggerates the (pitiful) condition of female journalist, who asked for ed the bitter reality but refused to tions have been fighting polygamy, in a modern society. single or divorced women, while fair treatment and sarcastically stay with her husband. the Association to Advocate Polyg- Muna Hamed, 35, a single em- it should be dealt with as a normal suggested that women should have “How can one share his private amy has been promoting multiple ployee, said she would never ac- fact of life,” she added. multiple husbands in an article in life with a complete stranger?” marriages since 2011. Its members cept to be a second wife. A 2018 survey by the Sisterhood 2009, caused a major uproar and she asked. “On one hand, I blame say taking multiple wives is one “Those who support multiple is Global Institute Jordan indicated drew condemnation in Muslim my husband and myself but I also way to protect unmarried females, marriages use religious justifica- that most husbands hide the ex- countries. blame the second wife for ruining especially in a country, such as Jor- tions to back their opinion. I be- istence of another marriage from a home. How can she guarantee he dan, where spinsterhood is on the lieve that being single at 30 or 40 their first wives. The survey, which Roufan Nahhas is a journalist will not marry again and break up rise. or any age is not a good reason to approached men and women aged based in Jordan. Egypt’s Islamists butt heads over helping wives at home

Ahmed Megahid and cooking. strong belief that women are lack- Many women said they were ing at the intellectual level.” grateful that the campaign encour- Egyptian Salafists have often Cairo aged their spouses and male rela- faced criticism for denying women tives to lend a hand at home. equal representation in state insti- he Muslim Brotherhood “I returned home today and tutions and in the judiciary. expressed disagreement could not believe it when I dis- In 2012 parliamentary elections, with a Salafist campaign covered that my father and my Salafist parties that fielded female T encouraging men to help brother had cleaned the house for candidates did not include photos their wives at home. my mother for the first time,” one of the candidates in their cam- The drama between Egypt’s two woman wrote on Suleiman’s Face- paign ads, using instead pictures largest Islamist forces began when book page. of flowers. the Salafist al-Nour Party began The Muslim Brotherhood re- The Muslim Brotherhood does an online campaign urging men to sponded to the campaign with rid- not grant women equal status in help their wives with household icule and sarcasm, arguing it was the movement or allow them to chores. a distraction from Egypt’s more vote in internal elections. “Equal- pressing issues and demeaning to ity between men and women as an men. idea is totally foreign to the Mus- The Muslim Brotherhood Haitham Abu Khalil, a Muslim lim Brotherhood,” Eid said. does not grant women equal Brotherhood member and TV host, Salafists and the Muslim Broth- status in the movement or said that, instead of addressing erhood greatly influence how allow them to vote in Egypt’s deteriorating conditions, Egyptians view women, observ- internal elections. members of al-Nour were “wash- ers said. From the 1960s through ing dishes and chopping jute mal- the 1980s, the groups convinced “Men will be demonstrating low leaves for their wives.” many women attending university their love for their wives by helping “There are 60,000 detainees in or employed at state institutions them at home,” campaign founder Egypt,” Abu Khalil said. “Do not to cover up. The groups have been Abdurrahman Suleiman said. you care about their suffering?” criticised for practising polygamy Suleiman received positive feed- Another member of the Muslim and marrying underage girls. back from fellow Salafists who said Brotherhood mocked the Salafists “The two groups have always they liked the idea of challenging for being “fossilised.” marginalised women and psycho- social taboos surrounding men Driving the animosity between For better or worse. An Egyptian man and his wife pose at their logically suppressed them,” said (Reuters) taking on domestic responsibili- the two Islamist forces are deep vegetable shop in Cairo. women’s rights advocate and di- ties. political rifts that go back years. rector of Egypt’s Liberal Democ- Some al-Nour members criti- Having united after Egypt’s 2011 After Morsi’s overthrow, Salafists revealing the groups’ attitudes to- racy Institute Dalia Ziada. “Tens of cised the drive but many others uprising, Salafists turned their curried favour with the Egyptian wards women, analysts said. thousands of women paid dearly began helping their wives at home. back on former Egyptian President Army, further antagonising the “Both groups harbour noth- because of this practice and also Some men posted photos of them- Muhammad Morsi, a Brotherhood Muslim Brotherhood. ing but disdain for women,” said because of the edicts issued by selves washing dishes. Others leader, when popular protests While old political grudges are Sameh Eid, an analyst specialising Islamist scholars and followed by were photographed cleaning floors broke out against him. likely fuelling the rift, it is also in Islamist affairs. “They have a the general public.” January 5, 2020 23 Culture

Syrian artist showcases inspiration by

Nidal Koshha said. “The war destroys the historic and cultural heritage of cities and civilisations and leaves just chaos. Damascus So, in the post-war phase, we must work on reconstructing and docu- yrian violinist Rania Maas- menting what was destroyed in all rani is considered one of the its details. founding students of the Arab “This is what I tried to do through S Institute of Music and the this exhibition for which I chose the Syrian National Symphony Orches- title ‘Inspired by Palmyra.’ All of the tra but she also has a parallel artistic exhibited works were inspired by platform in which she presents her this city and its thousand-year-old creations and ideas about art. civilisation.” In addition to her love of music, “The title suggests that Palmyra Maasrani learnt painting and sculp- still lives in our consciousness as a ture at the hands of masters of the source of creativity and art. I tried to arts in Syria. She was quickly a suc- capture that in the details of wom- cess, an exceptional case of artis- en’s jewellery, faces and some sim- tic accomplishment in music and ple human scenes,” Maasrani added. painting. In the clay sculptures, colour was Her latest exhibition was titled replaced by the subtle play of light “Inspired by Palmyra” and included and shadows. Colour, however, was works in sculpture and Ajami paint- present in force in the paintings, on ing. She said her aesthetic vision which Maasrani used exotic wood as was inspired by the ancient city of supports for intricate forms and col- Palmyra, which was greatly dam- our schemes in reproducing decora- aged during the war against the Is- tions that adorn the ceilings of old lamic State (ISIS). dwellings in the region. “Anyone who reads history will Damascene Ajami art is one of the fully realise the importance of the oldest forms of arts and crafts and city and civilisation of Palmyra at has been popular throughout the some point in human history and of history of Damascus. Official and the enlightened thought it has given formal reception halls in palaces mankind,” she said of the exhibi- and homes were ornately adorned tion’s focus. with Ajami paintings. Undiscovered realms. Sharjah ruler Sheikh Sultan bin Muhammad al-Qasimi at the inauguration of “The city’s history was full of Sharjah Islamic Arts Festival at the Sharjah Arts Museum. (Sharjah Department of Culture) events and personalities, perhaps the most important of whom was Syrian artist Queen Zenobia. That’s why the in- Rania Maasrani vaders of Palmyra always tried to wipe out this history from our civi- Sharjah Islamic Arts lisational identity. “When we speak about the exist- “Anyone who reads history ence of religious thought in this city will fully realise the about 2,000 years ago, we can eas- importance of the city and Festival offers viewers a ily realise the magnitude of its great civilisation of Palmyra at some intellectual standing. So religious point in human history.” zealots destroyed the famous Tem- ple of Bel, which I consider a disas- transcendental experience ter and a crime against all human- The artistic form blends several ity. This was how I got the idea that decorative arts, such as Turkish, we must collaborate to protect and Persian and Arabic, giving the walls N.P. Krishna Kumar texture and colour evoking a sooth- “Horizon to Horizon” by Sinta bring back to life the history of this and ceilings of Damascene homes a ing, spiritual atmosphere. The work Tantra, a British artist of Balinese civilisation at all costs and restore touch of grandeur and luxury. The embodies the link between creature descent, is inspired by ’s its former historic glory.” colours of Ajami paintings retain Sharjah and the creator and emphasises the poem on moonlight. The work is The exhibition, at Damascus Op- their brilliance for many years. Aja- importance of patience and toler- a celebration of light and colour, era House, included several clay mi painting became a full-fledged rospect,” or an imagina- ance. bursting with energy and life as sculptures. Maasrani said she used profession during the Umayyad Dy- tive journey to undiscov- “Study in Pattern” by Wade Ka- well as featuring Islamic motifs and clay as an equivalent to the found- nasty and used to be called vegetar- “ ered realms, is the theme vanaugh and Stephen B. Nguyen, colours. ing material of life. ian painting because its colours are P of this year’s Sharjah Is- from the United States, activates “I am open to developing a Her work was inspired by sculp- from plant extracts. lamic Arts Festival, which showcas- the common visual vocabulary and unique colour palette in response tures and paintings on the walls of Maasrani said she has a special re- es Islamic art from the region and collective imagination of the local to Sharjah,” said Tantra, who has historic palaces, such as the Qasr gard for the Damascus Opera House. the world in the emirate’s art and community, including the audience used classical Islamic gold paint al-Hayr al-Sharqi (Eastern Palace) She has given many concerts there academic institutions and public in the process of shared seeing. for certain geometrical elements to and the Temple of Bel, which was and it became the site of her exhibi- squares. Made of wooden strips of different make the work glow vibrantly dur- destroyed by ISIS extremists. tion. Organised by the Cultural Affairs lengths woven into a giant struc- ing the day and the moonlight in Some of her work depicts details “I’m particularly fond of this Department at the Sharjah Depart- ture, the subject matter for “Study the evening. of life in the desert. There was a no- venue,” she said. “I spent some of ment of Culture, the festival’s 22nd in Pattern” is drawn from the rich “Pray/Play” by Kaz Shirane and ticeable Sufi influence in the exhibi- my sweetest moments there since edition attracted 108 artists from 31 pattern at the foundation of histori- Kaito Sakuma, from Japan, aims to tion. A good portion of the works ex- the founding of the Syrian National countries. Artworks are being dis- cal Islamic art. connect all religions through art. hibited depicted whirling dervishes Symphony Orchestra. I’ve appeared played in 55 exhibitions around the “Infinitum” by Antonio Pio Sara- Their outdoor installation is in- from the Mevlevi Order. Maasrani hundreds of times with the orches- city, including the main venue at cino, of Italy, invites viewers to dis- spired by mosques and Islamic geo- also exhibited paintings done in the tra on the house’s stage in public the Sharjah Art Museum, the Callig- cover arches common in mosque metric patterns and embodies what Ajami style. concerts. How happy I am that the raphy Square, Al Majaz Waterfront, design. Rows of columns and arch- the place to pray/play is all about “During the war in the city of place where I was playing again em- Al Majaz Amphitheatre, Maraya Art es are a metaphor for the progress — connection with all people. The Palmyra, I often thought of these braces what I drew and sculpted.” Centre, Al Qasba Sharjah University of human civilisation and the pos- music played inside is inspired by details and how they must be docu- and University City. sibilities of human life. several religions. mented and preserved,” Maasrani Nidal Koshha is a Syrian writer. The month-long event, which At the Maraya Art Centre, Beijing- ends January 21, will be celebrated The festival’s 22nd edition based sculptor Li Hongbo is pre- across the emirate through 253 ex- senting “Bloom,” which uses paper hibitions, lectures and workshops. attracted 108 artists from 31 sculpture and traditional Chinese “The theme prompts contempla- countries. craft practices in a work that meta- tion and venturing into a journey morphoses in a manner that chal- towards visual realms that exist The paper installation “Infinite lenges viewers’ expectations from beyond the limits of space. It is the Ocean and Sky” by Nancy Baker, this bright field of colour. practice of imagination that can in- of the United States, is inspired by Hongbo brings a unique vision to voke the absent beautiful and un- the 13th-century poet and mystic an age-old honeycomb technique discovered realms,” said Moham- Rumi’s meditative poem on nature. seen in paper gourd making in Chi- med al-Qaseer, director of Cultural The artist draws inspiration from na. He finds inspiration in the pro- Affairs at the Sharjah Department the cloud and the sea and commu- portion and symmetry of Islamic of Culture. nity. Three smaller works lead up to patterns and motifs. At the Sharjah Art Museum, the the 7-metre-wide creation. All that Thousands of objects transform artists impressed viewers through one sees are floating components of from paper guns to flowers and un- the sheer scale of the vision and paper. Shapes, patterns, structure fold in full bloom. However, when choice of the medium to express and colour are balanced to create a viewers step back, they see that their creations. floating feeling as in Rumi’s poem. the shapes amass into the form of “Soliloquies” by Ahmed Askala- At the Al Majaz Waterfront, two guns and artillery. While this prac- ny, from Egypt, comprises three installations are designed to capti- tice originates from folk tradition, giant symbolic rosaries of varied vate the public. it allows Hongbo to allegorically sizes, hanging from the ceiling and “The Art of Du’aa” by Emirati propose that weapons must be dis- coming together on a pedestal of artist Moaza Matar is inspired by armed for peace and shows how we white and light brown crystals, il- the artist’s recent haj. Using fine can all experience beauty within luminated by a green light from stitching on cloth, complemented the darkness of the world. below. by paint, it portrays stories of peo- The rosaries are made of palm ple during haj raising their hands in N.P. Krishna Kumar is an Arab A play of light and shadows. A clay sculpture on display at the leaves and threaded by rope, the prayer. Weekly contributor in Dubai. Damascus Opera House exhibition. (Al Arab) 24 January 5, 2020 Saudi Entertainment www.thearabweekly.com

Agenda

Dubai: Through February 16

This year’s Carpet Oasis takes place at Mina Rashid Marina. The exhibition brings together shop- pers, collectors and retailers from all over the world. Entertainment activities and games are scheduled during the exhibition.

Dubai: Through April 4

Sponsored by the Dubai Culture and Arts Authority, the tenth Live Our Heritage Festival, organised on the theme “An Eye on Emirati Heritage,” invites visitors to better understand the legacy and cus- toms of the people of Dubai. Ac- tivities include traditional crafts, At the forefront of culture. A view of the facade of the mirrored-wall Maraya Theatre in Al-Ula, a UNESCO World Heritage site in national folk songs and heritage north-western Saudi Arabia. (AFP) workshops.

Tangier: January 9-13

Tantora Festival showcases world The Tangier International Latin Festival features workshops of various dances, shows by accom- plished artists, tourist parades and cultures, Saudi heritage guided tours. Muscat: Caline Malek been underrepresented both within January 16-February 15 and outside the country,” Al Saud said. “The region is incredibly rich The annual Muscat Festival in Dubai in history and with that come quite Oman will feature nightly fire- a few myths and legends. Creat- works, traditional Omani music audi Arabia’s entertainment ing an event to bring people in and performances, local cuisine, craft industry has boomed in re- show Al-Ula and Mada’in Saleh in displays, exhibitions from regional cent few months as the king- a different light is exactly the right countries and traditional dancing. S dom seeks to attract tourists direction to take.” from near and far. She said she hoped to see more Marrakech: Al-Ula, in north-western Saudi of a focus on a local narrative to- January 26 Arabia, is no exception having host- wards the international community ed the second Winter at Tantora Fes- in which Saudis can present them- More than 8,000 runners from all tival, which is to continue through selves and their land as it actually is. over the world will be racing in the March 7. The celebration showcases “For most of our modern-day his- Marrakech International Marathon international music, art and culture tory, we’ve allowed the world to cre- in Morocco. Many international connecting East and West. ate a narrative for us, and it’s time to sports personalities will partici- Locals speak of Al-Ula as the hid- be more proactive,” she added. pate in the race while various den gem of Saudi Arabia. “The other thing I’d like to see is touristic activities and street “Al-Ula has never really been at an expansion of services through- shows take place during the event. the forefront of our culture,” said out the country to showcase the Fahda Bander Al Saud from Trave- incredibly varied and beautiful Lighting up the skies. A scene during the Al-Ula Balloon Festival. Abu Simbel: ling Panther, an experience design landscapes and heritage sites Saudi (AP) February 22 company in Saudi Arabia. “Because Arabia has to offer. From the tow- of the mysticism and stories sur- ering snow-capped mountains to renowned establishments. men and women have concluded The Sun Festival at Abu Simbel rounding Mada’in Saleh, most peo- the lush green valleys and barren The mirrored-wall Maraya Thea- training at the FERRANDI Paris cu- in Egypt takes place in February ple who would visit were primarily deserts, the coral reefs in the Red tre with its 500-seat capacity and linary institute. and October each year. When professional or amateur historians. Sea and the mangroves in the Gulf. operatic sound quality will be home The chefs will work alongside Ramses II built the temple, he There has never been much inter- There is just so much beauty.” to some of the world’s leading per- Michelin-starred experts to create had it carefully positioned so that est, nor has there been much adver- Traveling Panther is working on formers, including Omar Khairat world-class cuisine that will incor- twice a year — on his birthday and tisement for the area. It’s great to projects aimed at showcasing such and Andrea Bocelli, during the fes- porate ingredients from the fertile the date of his ascension to the see that changing now.” areas. tival. Al-Ula valley and blend traditional throne — the inner sanctum would The festival came after Saudi Ara- “We want to explore every inch of “It has been amazing to witness recipes with modern cuisine. be lit by the rising sun, which bia introduced tourist visas for citi- it ourselves,” she said. “Everything the change in Saudi Arabia,” said “Festival visitors will be given illuminates the statues of the sun zens from 49 countries, making the that’s happening now is not only Sara al-Ahmad, a 25-year-old from a unique opportunity to visit and gods. During the Abu Simbel Sun country more accessible. The UN- opening the region up to the inter- Jeddah. “What has been even more experience one of the world’s un- Festival, people gather along the ESCO World Heritage site at Hegra national community but locals are special is to see the response from discovered places and its spectacu- banks of the Nile River near the in Al-Ula is among those featured in benefiting and beginning to actually tourists from around the world — lar heritage sites before we reopen temple to see the unique sunrise a global marketing campaign. see what their own country has to of- so many people are now interested them to the world in October 2020,” spectacle and celebrate with food, The festival is part of the Cultural fer. That’s what we’re most excited and keen to visit the kingdom.” said RCU CEO Amr AlMadani. dance and music programmes ar- Manifesto established by the Royal about.” The festival is hosted by members “They will get a tantalising ranged by area residents. Commission for Al-Ula (RCU), last Winter at Tantora is scheduled of the Al-Ula community trained glimpse of a place that has been a October in Paris as part of a long- over 12 weekends, hosting a wide overseas in hospitality, culture, na- cultural crossroads for thousands of Hurghada, Egypt: term strategy to transform the re- range of events from the Dakar Ral- ture and the environment. years and the chance to see it from March 2-9 gion into a global living museum ly, an international ballooning festi- Storytellers from Al-Rowah have the serenity of a hot air balloon, and place of culture, heritage and val, the world’s second-longest en- been trained by expert tour guides the adrenaline of soaring over the Egypt Sensual offers dancing, the arts. durance horse race and the world’s in France, the United States and the desert and mountains in an open- workshops and performances “The festival is a great way to first desert polo tournament as well United Arab Emirates to share Al- seater biplane or exploring hidden from artists who will teach and showcase a beautiful area that has as pop-up restaurants from globally Ula’s story with the world, while 24 canyons in traditional vintage Land dance with visitors. The event Rovers.” features pre-parties, pool par- The RCU completed major infra- ties, beach parties, boat parties, structure work at Al-Ula airport, workshops, shows and live music increasing its capacity to 400,000 performances. visitors a year and upgrading local mountain resorts to enhance visi- Dubai: tors’ experience. March 5-7 Al-Ula is expected to become a worldwide destination for those Taste of Dubai is an extravaganza seeking a unique experience in Sau- of food, drink and music at the di Arabia, integrating the natural Dubai Media City Amphithea- and cultural heritage as one living tre. The event features cooking environment. “By safeguarding our demonstrations by world-class ce- precious landscapes and cultural lebrity chefs, cookery workshops, heritage, this open-air museum will food and drink stalls, tastings and be the kingdom’s gift to the world, more. creating remarkable and lasting memories,” AlMadani said. During the opening weekend, the We welcome submissions of “Authentic Al-Ula” event included calendar items related to locally inspired dining and enter- cultural events of interest to tainment to mark the start of the travellers in the Middle East winter planting season. It was the and North Africa. first of 12 themed weekends. Please send tips to: Caline Malek is an Arab Weekly [email protected] Hidden gem. Hot air balloons in Al-Ula, a UNESCO World Heritage site in north-western Saudi Arabia. (AP) contributor.