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OTT Program Analysis Methodology Ii May 9, 2001 Quality Metrics 2002 Final Report 4.0 Benefits Estimates

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OTT Program Analysis Methodology Ii May 9, 2001 Quality Metrics 2002 Final Report 4.0 Benefits Estimates Program Analysis Methodology Office of Transportation Technologies Quality Metrics 2002 - Final Report - May 9, 2001 Prepared by: OTT Analytic Team http://www.ott.doe.gov/facts.html Science Communications Planning Prepared for: Office of Transportation Technologies U.S. Department of Energy Washington, D.C. Table of Contents Section Page No. List of Exhibits.............................................................................................................................. iv Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.0 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 9 1.1 Purpose and Scope .................................................................................................. 9 1.2 Background -The EE/RE Quality Metrics Review Process .................................. 10 1.3 Background - The Office of Transportation Technologies (OTT)........................ 12 1.4 Report Structure/Organization .............................................................................. 14 2.0 Technical Analysis Overview ......................................................................................... 16 2.1 Background ........................................................................................................... 16 2.2 Vehicle/Technology/Fuel Baseline Assumptions.................................................. 16 2.3 Vehicle Attributes ................................................................................................. 17 2.3.1 Light Vehicle Attributes............................................................................ 17 2.3.2 Heavy Vehicle Attributes .......................................................................... 20 2.4 Summary of Modeling Assumptions and Structures............................................. 21 2.4.1 VSCC Model............................................................................................. 23 2.4.2 IMPACTT Model...................................................................................... 23 2.4.3 GREET Model........................................................................................... 23 2.4.4 HVMP Model............................................................................................ 24 2.4.5 ESM Model ............................................................................................... 24 2.4.6 Other Calculations..................................................................................... 24 3.0 Vehicle Choice Analysis.................................................................................................. 25 3.1 Light Vehicles ....................................................................................................... 25 3.2 Heavy Vehicles...................................................................................................... 34 3.3 Stand-Alone Technologies .................................................................................... 44 3.3.1 Sensitivity Study-No Advanced Diesel..................................................... 49 3.3.2 Sensitivity Study-Fuel Price/Technology Cost Impacts............................ 49 OTT Program Analysis Methodology ii May 9, 2001 Quality Metrics 2002 Final Report 4.0 Benefits Estimates ...........................................................................................................51 4.1 Petroleum and Other Energy Benefits Analysis .................................................... 51 4.1.1 Biomass ..................................................................................................... 51 4.1.2 Fuel Choice for Flex-Fuel Vehicles .......................................................... 52 4.1.3 Estimates of the Value of Reducing Imported Oil .................................... 53 4.1.4 Petroleum Reduction Estimates ................................................................ 56 4.2 Economic and Environmental Benefits Analysis Results ..................................... 59 4.2.1 Economic Benefits Estimates.................................................................... 59 4.2.2 Vehicle Infrastructure Capital Requirements ............................................ 61 4.2.3 Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) Model ............................................................... 64 4.2.4 Cost of Various Pollutants ........................................................................ 66 4.2.5 Aggregate Environmental and Economic Benefits Estimates................... 64 5.0 Accomplishments and Future Plans .................................................................................. 66 5.1 Accomplishments...................................................................................... 66 5.2 Future Plans............................................................................................... 66 6.0 References ............................................................................................................................ 69 7.0 Supporting Information...................................................................................................... 72 7.1 Glossary................................................................................................................. 72 7.2 Energy Conversion Factors Used .......................................................................... 73 Appendices A. Quality Metrics 2002 Results OTT Program Analysis Methodology iii May 9, 2001 Quality Metrics 2002 Final Report List of Exhibits Exhibit E1. OTT Program Structure and QM Planning Units ........................................................ 2 Exhibit E2. Vehicle/Technology Analysis Matrix .......................................................................... 3 Exhibit E3. OTT Impacts Assessment Process ............................................................................... 4 Exhibit E4. Conventional Vehicle Characteristics – Large Cars (1996)......................................... 5 Exhibit E5. Market Penetration Summary ...................................................................................... 5 Exhibit E6. QM 2002 Summary...................................................................................................... 6 Exhibit E7. Transportation Petroleum Use Projection.................................................................... 7 Exhibit E8. Carbon Emissions Reductions ..................................................................................... 8 Exhibit 1-1. Relationship Between Quality Metrics and OTT Program ....................................... 13 Exhibit 2-1. Conventional Baseline Vehicle Characteristics (1999)............................................. 16 Exhibit 2-2. Technology Characteristics - Large Car (1999) ........................................................ 18 Exhibit 2-3. Technology Characteristics - Small Car (1999)........................................................ 18 Exhibit 2-4. Technology Characteristics - Sport Utility Vehicle (1999)....................................... 19 Exhibit 2-5. Technology Characteristics – Minivan (1999).......................................................... 19 Exhibit 2-6. Technology Characteristics - Pickup Trucks and Large Vans (1999)....................... 20 Exhibit 2-7. QM Modeling Process............................................................................................... 22 Exhibit 3-1. Fuel Economy Ratio.................................................................................................. 27 Exhibit 3-2. Cost Ratio.................................................................................................................. 28 Exhibit 3-3. Relative Range Ratio................................................................................................. 28 Exhibit 3-4. Relative Maintenance................................................................................................ 29 Exhibit 3-5. Market Penetration of Alternative Light Vehicles Sales and Stocks ........................ 30 Exhibit 3-6. Market Penetration of Alternative Light Vehicles-Sales .......................................... 30 Exhibit 3-7. Market Penetration of Small Car Technologies ........................................................ 31 Exhibit 3-8. Market Penetration of Large Car Technologies ........................................................ 31 Exhibit 3-9. Market Penetration of Minivan Technologies........................................................... 32 Exhibit 3-10. Market Penetration of Sport Utility Vehicle Technologies..................................... 32 Exhibit 3-11. Market Penetration of Pickup & Large Van Technologies ..................................... 33 Exhibit 3-12. Alternative Light Vehicle Sales and Stocks, 2010.................................................. 33 Exhibit 3-13. Alternative Light Vehicle Sales and Stocks, 2020.................................................. 34 Exhibit 3-14. Alternative Light Vehicle Sales and Stocks, 2030.................................................. 34 Exhibit 3-15. Heavy Vehicle Characteristics ................................................................................ 35 Exhibit 3-16. Heavy Vehicle Market Characteristics ................................................................... 35 Exhibit
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