Older People's JSNA Factsheet 1: The older population
Summary • 25,000 people aged 65 or over live in Southwark (approx 9% of the population) a smaller proportion compared to London (11.4%) and England (16%). • By 2025 an additional 5,000 more residents aged 65 and over are projected to live in Southwark, with a larger proportion of people aged 85 and over. • Currently, 81% of older people living in Southwark are of White ethnicity. The second largest group is Black/Black British (13%). In the future there will be increasing numbers of and an increasing proportion of older people from BAME groups. • Life expectancy at age 65 for both men and women is higher in Southwark than London or England. Disability free life expectancy at 65 for men is higher in Southwark than London or England, for women it is similar. • A man in the most deprived 20% of the population dies on average 9.5 years earlier than one living in the least deprived. For women, the corresponding gap is 6.9 years. • Relative deprivation amongst older people living in Southwark has recently worsened.
The local population aged 65 and over Table 1 contains three estimates of the overall population and the population aged over 65 in Southwark. The number of people living in Southwark is estimated to be 280,512 (GLA shlaa, 2010) or 285,600 (ONS 2009 mid-year). Like many London boroughs, Southwark has a predominately young adult population (43% of the resident population are aged 20 - 39 compared to 27% in England). GLA and ONS estimates agree that there are approximately 25,000 people aged 65 years and over in Southwark’s population. At approximately 9% of the population, this is considerably lower than the 16% for England overall. Future data in this report refers to the resident population.
Southwark Older People’s JSNA 2012 1
Table 1: Registered and resident populations for Southwark, 2009
Registered population Resident population
ONS GLA
Age group Number % Number % Number %
65-74 12,863 4.00% 12,900 4.50% 12,832 4.60%
75+ 12,581 4.70% 12,300 4.30% 12,241 4.40%
Total 65+ 25,444 8.7% 25,200 8.8% 25,073 9.0%
Total pop 319,387 100 285,600 100 280,512 100
Sources: registered population: Exeter June 2010, resident population: ONS 2009 mid year population estimates and GLA 2010 shlaa population projections for the year 2009
The ‘registered’ population (people registered with a Southwark general practice regardless of where they live) is larger than the borough’s resident population. The registered numbers of people aged 65+ are similar to the borough estimates. In June 2010 there were 25,444 registered people aged 65 and over registered with Southwark GPs, though numbers of registered older people have varied markedly in recent years. More recent estimates have a larger registered population aged 65+ than that detailed in Table 1. The reasons for this variation are not clear.
Numbers of older people in the future The number of older people in Southwark has not changed significantly since Census 2001, however Southwark’s population is expected to grow in the coming years across all age groups. Figure 1 presents ONS population estimates for future years by age group, and shows an expected 5,000 more older people by 2025.
Southwark Older People’s JSNA 2012 2
Figure 1: Population aged 65 and over, projected to 2030
35,000
30,000
25,000 People aged 90 and over 20,000 People aged 85-89 People aged 80-84 People aged 75-79 15,000 People aged 70-74 People aged 65-69 10,000 projected population (numbers)
5,000
0 2010 2015 2020 2025
Source: POPPI v.5.1
Although there is likely to be a significant increase in the numbers of older people in Southwark in the coming years the proportion of the population that is over 65 will fall. The rate of increase in this group is lower than for the population overall. For instance by 2020 numbers of older people are predicted to increase by just over 8%, however Southwark’s overall population increase will be closer to 13%.
Gender Currently there are around 3,300 more women aged 65 and over in Southwark than men. The split between males (43.3%) and female (56.7%) is the same as London, and England. As Table 2 shows, gender differences are expected to reduce in the future. They are expected to reduce quickly in Southwark, by 2030 it is expected that the female proportion will have fallen to 52.8%, lower than both London (54.9%) and England (54%).
Table 2: Southwark population projections of 65 + population by gender
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Males Numbers 10,700 11,400 12,100 13,900 16,300
% 43.3% 44.4% 45.3% 46.5% 47.2%
Females Numbers 14,000 14,300 14,600 16,000 18,200
% 56.7% 55.6% 54.7% 53.5% 52.8%
Source: POPPI v5.1
Southwark Older People’s JSNA 2012 3 Ethnicity
Like much of Inner London, Southwark’s population is richly diverse and varies greatly across the borough. However there is less variation in the over 65s population. Table 3 below shows the older population by broad ethnic group.
Table 3: Over 65s in Southwark by ethnic group
Ethnic Group 65-74 75-84 85+ Total %
White (British, Irish and Other White) 9,675 7,685 3,150 20,510 81.3
Mixed Ethnicity ( White/ Black Caribbean; White/ 151 76 30 257 1.0 Black African; White and Asian; Other Mixed)
Asian or Asian British (Indian; Pakistani; 501 150 28 679 2.7 Bangladeshi; and Other Asian or Asian British)
Black or Black British (Black Caribbean; Black 2,329 851 148 3,328 13.2 African; and Other Black or Black British)
Chinese or Other Ethnic Group 314 119 33 466 1.8
All people 12,970 8,881 3,389 25,240
Source: POPPI v.5.1
Just over 81% of those over 65 are White (British, Irish and Other), a greater proportion than for adults in Southwark and nearly twice the proportion of children. The second largest ethnic group is Black (Caribbean, African or other); ‘Black Caribbean’ makes up the majority of this group, which contrasts with the adult and child populations in Southwark where ‘Black African’ is the largest Black ethnic group. The ethnic mix in Southwark is likely to shift over time, for instance, GLA 2010 estimates expect the proportion of White ethnicities to fall to 66% by 2025, a fall of 15%. There is a corresponding increase in all other broad ethnic groups, the largest of which will continue to be the Black group, however, over time the largest ethnic group within the Black group will change from Black Caribbean to Black African.
The changing ethnic makeup of the population may have implications for the design of public services, as they should respond effectively to all need across cultures and address language barriers. Some studies have found that reported ill health was substantially higher among older minority ethnic adults than older whites. But this finding may be due to factors driving health disadvantage in a particular generation, e.g. poverty; poor housing and low educational level.
Southwark Older People’s JSNA 2012 4 Life Expectancy
At birth Male life expectancy in Southwark is shorter than England. In 2007 - 09, male life expectancy at birth was 77.8 years, 0.8 years less than for England (78.6 years). However, life expectancy for males has increased over the last decade and the gap between Southwark and England is steadily reducing. Over the same period female life expectancy has been steadily increasing and is now higher than the national average. The Southwark figure (82.9 years) is 0.6 years longer than England (82.3 years). Although people are living longer, there are continuing inequalities. Life expectancy is greater for people with higher incomes, and they are also more likely to have more disability free years before death. The Marmot Review found:
“In England, people living in the poorest neighbourhoods, will, on average, die seven years earlier than people living in the richest neighbourhoods. Even more disturbing, the average difference in disability-free life expectancy is 17 years. So, people in poorer areas not only die sooner, but they will also spend more of their shorter lives with a disability. “
In Southwark, a man in the most deprived 20% of the population dies on average 9.5 years earlier than one living in the least deprived. For women, the corresponding gap is 6.9 years.
At 65
In 2007 – 09 a man aged 65 in Southwark will live on average another 18.4 years and a woman 21.7 years. Figure 2 shows the additional life expectancy for men and women once they reach the age of 65 years over the last ten years. Older people in Southwark are now living longer on average than their counterparts in London and England.
Figure 2: Trend in life expectancy at 65+ for males and females; Southwark and comparators
Trends in male life expectancy at 65 years, Trends in female life expectancy at 65 years, England, London and Southwark England, London and Southwark 19 24
18 22 17 20 16 18 years
years 15 16 14 14 13
12 12 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 England London Southwark England London Southwark
Source: Office for National Statistics
Southwark Older People’s JSNA 2012 5
Disability Free Life Expectancy at 65
In 2006 – 08, on average, men aged 65 in Southwark can expect to live a further 12 years free from disability and 6.4 years with disability. Women aged 65 can expect to live 11.3 years free from disability and a further 10.4 years with disability. Men in Southwark can expect a greater proportion of those years to be free from disability - on average two thirds (65%) of their remaining life compared to 54% for London males and 57% for England. Women can expect to live longer and have around half (52%) of those years free from disability – the same as London and England.
Where do older people live in Southwark?
To provide services and meet need it is important to know where older people live. Table 4 shows the numbers of older people resident in each ward and also the proportion of that ward aged over 65. The table also provides ward deprivation rankings (IMD 2007) to indicate the numbers of older people in the more deprived wards in Southwark.
Table 4: Number and proportion of older people in Southwark wards; overall deprivation ranking for ward
Ward Numbers of % population that is 65+ Deprivation ranking those 65+ (IMD 2007) (where 1 = most deprived)
Camberwell Green 1,650 11.6% 3
Livesey 1,500 10.9% 2
The Lane 1,550 10.5% 6
Brunswick Park 1,300 10.3% 10
East Walworth 1,300 9.7% 1
Newington 1,400 9.5% 8
Village 1,050 9.4% 21
Grange 1,400 9.2% 12
East Dulwich 1,100 9.1% 20
College 1,000 9.0% 16
South Bermondsey 1,150 8.8% 7
Southwark Older People’s JSNA 2012 6 Surrey Docks 1,150 8.7% 19
Chaucer 1,400 8.6% 14
Cathedrals 1,350 8.4% 13
Riverside 1,100 8.1% 15
Faraday 1,100 8.0% 9
South Camberwell 1,000 7.9% 17
Nunhead 950 7.9% 5
Peckham Rye 1,000 7.7% 18
Rotherhithe 1,000 7.5% 11
Peckham 750 6.3% 4
Total 25,050 8.9%
Source: GLA 2010 and IMD 2007 and Southwark Public Health Intelligence. NB numbers of older people are rounded
Those aged 65 and over make up 16% of the population in England. In Southwark however there is no ward where older people make up 16% of the population; in fact only 4 wards have more than 10% of population over 65. The wards with the largest numbers of older people are also the wards that are amongst the most deprived in the borough: Livesey, The Lane and Camberwell Green. Proportions of older people by ward are shown in Figure 3.
Some older people experience deprivation in different ways to the general population. In order to capture this, Indices of Deprivation Affecting Older People Index (IDAOPI) are also calculated. The data for 2010 is presented and discussed in greater detail in Factsheet 2 on Income, Benefits and Poverty.
Southwark Older People’s JSNA 2012 7 Figure 3: Proportions of people over the age of 65 living in Southwark
Southwark Population Aged 65 and Over, by Southwark Wards, 2009
Riverside Cathedrals
Grange Chaucer Surrey Rotherhithe Docks
East Walworth South Bermondsey
Newington Faraday Livesey
Camberwell Peckham Green
Brunswick Park Nunhead The Lane
South Camberwell
Peckham Rye
East Dulwich Village
% population aged 65+ by Ward GLA 2010 10 + (4) 9 to 9.9 (5) 8 to 8.9 (7) 7 to 7.9 (4) College 6 to 6.9 (1)
Southw ark Wards
Southw ark Boundary
Source of data: GLA 2010 round w ard-level population projections by 5yr age groups using 2009 SHLAA (Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessments) housing data, 2001-2031.
Produced by NHS South East London, Public Health Contains Ordnance Survey data N. Jani, 2011 © Crow n copyright and database rights 2011
Southwark Older People’s JSNA 2012 8 Figure 4 shows, the variation in the numbers of over 65s registered with GP Practices. There are eight practices where older people make up more than 10% of the practice population and four practices where they make up less than 5%. The GP practice with the highest proportion is one of the smallest.
Figure 4: GP registered population aged 65+ in Southwark PCT
Source: Small area data for GP registration 2009-2010 from APHO
There are several large practices with large numbers of older people registered. Table 5 shows that 15 of the 47 practices cater for just over half of the older population.
Table 5: Number of over 65s registered with general practices in Southwark.
Practice Name Registered population aged 65+
Aylesbury Medical Centre 1,699
Forest Hill Road Group Practice 1,626
Princess Street Group Practice 1,028
Nunhead Surgery 904
Elm Lodge Surgery 859
Acorn Surgery 833
Camberwell Green Practice 832
Albion Street Group Practice 782
Southwark Older People’s JSNA 2012 9 Falmouth Road Group Practice 718
Manor Place Surgery 702
Bermondsey & Lansdowne Medical Mission 681
Dulwich Medical Centre 635
DMC Chadwick Road 631
Park Medical Centre 602
Grange Road Practice 597
The Surgery (The Gardens) 586
Parkers Row Family Practice 543
St Giles Surgery, Drs Patel, Roseman & Vasant 510
Concordia Parkside Medical Centre 495
The Surgery (East Street) 492
Sternhall Lane Surgery 489
Queens Road Surgery 463
The Lordship Lane Surgery 453
Concordia Melbourne Grove Medical Practice 446
Blackfriars Medical Practice 443
Surrey Docks Health Centre 443
Villa Street Medical Centre 384
DMC Silverlock 364
Penrose Surgery 363
Sir John Kirk Close Surgery 356
St Giles Surgery, Drs Virji & Begley 347
Maddock Way Surgery 344
Lister Primary Care Centre - Hurley Group Practice 344
The New Mill Street Surgery 327
3-Zero-6 Medical Centre 324
Southwark Older People’s JSNA 2012 10
St James Church Surgery 317
Avicenna Practice 320
East Dulwich Primary Care Centre 309
Borough Medical Centre (Dr Misra) 299
Hambleden Clinic 285
Old Kent Road Surgery 256
Lister Primary Care Centre - Dr Arumugaraasah 255
Lister Primary Care Centre - Dr Hossain 252
The Trafalgar Surgery 217
Lister Primary Care Centre - Dr Ullah 113
Borough Medical Centre (Dr Sharma) 105
The Surgery (Dr Lee) 57
Total 24,430
Source: QMAS 31.3.11
Southwark Older People’s JSNA 2012 11