Southwark Housing Market Trends Bulletin No. 52 1st Quarter 2016/17 (April-June)

July 2016

www..gov.uk Housing Market Trends Bulletin July 2016

Contents

1.0 Executive Summary ...... 2 2.0 Introduction ...... 3 3.0 National and housing market ...... 5 3.1 National house prices ...... 5 3.2 London house prices ...... 6 3.3 National and London rents ...... 8 4.0 Southwark Housing Market ...... 9 4.1 Southwark house prices ...... 10 4.2 Southwark rents ...... 19 4.3 Southwark room rents ...... 23

1.0 Executive Summary

National House Prices (Rightmove)  The average national property asking price in July was £307,824. This was down 0.9% from the previous month and up 4.5% in the last year.

London and Southwark house prices (Rightmove except 7th bullet)

London  Average property asking price (Rightmove), July 2016: £635,710  % change in the last month (June to July): -1.2%  % change in the last year (July 2015 to July 2016): 3.3%.

Southwark  Average Property Asking Price (Rightmove), July 2016: £622,580  % change in the last month (June to July): -6.5%  % change in the last year (July 2015 to July 2016): 4.7%

 Using Hometrack1 data to compare Southwark prices with data 6 months ago: prices rose by 2.2%. Prices increased by 7.3% since May 2015. The methodology used is explained in the introductory table.

National rents HomeLet Rental Index- June 2016  Excluding London rents, the average UK rent for tenancies in the three months leading up to June 2016 was £773pcm. This was 3.5% higher than in the same period last year (£747pcm).  The average cost of renting a home in London was 3.9% more expensive than in June 2015 at £1,575 per month

1 Hometrack- based on sales and mortgage valuations data

2 Housing Market Trends Bulletin July 2016

RICS Residential Market Survey- June 2016 (previously RICS Residential Lettings Survey)

 Tenant demand grew modestly in June  There was a small decline in the number of new properties to let  Rents are expected to rise in the short to medium term although expectations have been revised down slightly

Southwark rents (analysis of data from Zoopla)

 At the beginning of July 2016 the median monthly asking rent for a 2 bed property in Southwark was £1,907.  Median rent levels fell for studios, 2 bedroom and 3 bedroom properties but rose slightly for one bedroom and 4 bedroom properties over the last 6 months.

2.0 Introduction The increasing complexity of the housing market makes it important for housing strategists and policy makers to understand what is happening locally so they can plan responses to changes in housing supply and demand. This bulletin of market trends provides an understanding of house prices and private sector rents movements. It is produced by the Strategy & Performance Improvement Team, Southwark Council. We provide these bulletins quarterly for Southwark and twice a year for the South East London sub-region2. We address market trends nationally, London-wide and locally/across the sub- region, broken down by postcode areas and wards. Data has mainly been obtained from the secondary sources listed in the table:

2 The South East London sub-region consists of the boroughs , , , Southwark and

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Data source Used for Dates covered Restrictions Rightmove National Based on properties - Based on advertised prices not and regional put on sale on achieved prices. house sales Rightmove between th - Covers approximately 90% of the data around the 7 of the national sales market. analysis month prior to the title month and around the 10th of the title month. Hometrack Southwark Hometrack provide It is based on a combination of land and sub- data 2 months in registry, mortgage approval data regional arrears of when the and surveyor valuations, over the 6 house Bulletin is due. i.e. months prior to the date. sales. when doing January’s bulletin Hometrack supply data up until month ending November of the previous year. The date we give in this bulletin is the date we downloaded data. RICS Residential National The RICS document is This data is based on surveys of Market Survey and regional published two months lettings agents, some rents will not (previously RICS rents data prior to our publication go through lettings agents. Some of Residential analysis. date. This data is for this data is the perceptions of Lettings Survey) the 3 months leading lettings agents. No actual rent up to the RICS title figures are given and these are

date. hard to find. HomeLet Rental National The HomeLet Rental The HomeLet Rental Index shows Index and regional Index uses data agreed rental prices rather than rents data acquired from the prices that are advertised on analysis previous month. The property portals. January 2013 release therefore uses data from December 2012. Zoopla (which Southwark Advertisements for - Data samples can be small for merged with and sub- rental property are particular property types. Findaproperty.com regional downloaded and - The data is advertised data, not and rents data, analysed in the first rent levels actually achieved Primelocation.com excluding week after the end of in 2012) rooms. the quarter. - This is based on a large sample

Spareroom.co.uk Southwark and sub regional rents rooms data

A high level of attention has been paid to the accuracy and reliability of data. Some of the information comes from external sources and is referenced. The intention is to provide a regular source of data that provides up to date market intelligence and identifies trends in market movement to inform development planning, as well as decision-making in other areas of housing activity. We are interested in any views you might have on the content of these bulletins and would particularly like to know what use you make of them. Many different charts and graphs are available on

4 Housing Market Trends Bulletin July 2016 demand. Please contact us if there is something that you need. Please contact John Morteo on 0207 525 1230 or [email protected]. 3.0 National and London housing market This section looks at the housing market on a national scale. It gives an overview of the trends in the national market for prices and rents.

3.1 National house prices (www.rightmove.co.uk, The Right Move House Price Index, July 2016)  Rightmove said it is too early to be able to tell whether the Brexit vote will affect the market in the medium to long term. The national monthly fall in prices of 0.9% was “within usual expectations for the run-up to the summer holiday season”.  Demand for properties since the referendum was similar to the same weeks in 2014, but down on the same period in 2015. In 2015 demand increased following the general election.  Rightmove suggested the market’s momentum has not been affected. A shortage of supply and the availability of low interest rates were amongst the reasons for this.

Table 1 - National property prices and changes by region, July 2016 Avg. Avg. Avg. Price Monthly Annual Price Jul Price June Change Change 2016 July 2015 2016 £635,710 £643,117 -1.2% £615,115 3.3% South West £300,904 £302,022 -0.4% £286,155 5.2% East of £336,176 £338,499 -0.7% £313,255 7.3% East Midlands £197,705 £198,090 -0.2% £190,192 3.9% North East £147,686 £148,662 -0.7% £147,251 0.3% North West £182,562 £183,482 -0.5% £176,277 3.6% Yorkshire and £174,614 £178,388 -2.1% £172,412 1.3% Humberside South East £413,009 £415,335 -0.6% £386,988 6.7% Wales £180,861 £185,145 -2.3% £177,280 2.0% West Midlands £205,951 £209,273 -1.6% £200,129 2.9% England + Wales £307,824 £310,471 -0.9% £294,542 4.5% Source: Rightmove House Price Index July 2016

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3.2 London house prices (www.rightmove.co.uk, July 2016) Table 1 shows that prices in Greater London have fallen by around 1.2% in the past month and have risen 3.3% over the year. Kensington and Chelsea saw the highest monthly price rise between June and July whilst saw the biggest monthly price fall. Comparing annual price increases by local authority Barking and saw the largest annual price increases seeing average prices rise by 18.6%. In contrast, saw prices fall by 7.2%.  The average London property asking price in July was £635,710.  The average Southwark property asking price in July was £622,580.  In Southwark, prices fell by 6.5% over the past month but rose by 4.7% over the past year.

Table 2 – The 5 largest rises and highest falls in average monthly asking price in London in July 2016.

London's top 5 London's bottom 5 Monthly Monthly by average price change by average price change change change Kensington and Chelsea 10.7% Hounslow -8.3% Richmond upon Thames 7.4% -7.4% and 4.7% Southwark -6.5% Brent 4.7% Camden -6.2% 4.6% Hackney -4.4% Source: Rightmove Survey, July 2016

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Table 3 – Average prices and price changes in London Boroughs in July 2016 Avg. Avg. Avg. Price Monthly Annual Borough Price Price June Change Change July 2016 July 2015 2016 Kensington and Chelsea £2,295,878 £2,073,363 10.7% £2,289,669 0.3% City of Westminster £1,906,098 £1,851,636 2.9% £2,053,876 -7.2% Camden £1,082,224 £1,153,801 -6.2% £1,128,349 -4.1% Hammersmith and £1,017,820 £972,501 4.7% £1,029,498 Fulham -1.1% Richmond-upon- £895,183 £833,595 7.4% £825,497 Thames 8.4% £802,576 £806,118 -0.4% £800,212 0.3% £801,165 £780,970 2.6% £732,625 9.4% Barnet £685,679 £665,378 3.1% £669,799 2.4% Merton £678,545 £649,002 4.6% £694,066 -2.2% Hackney £644,181 £673,598 -4.4% £619,377 4.0% Brent £644,087 £615,023 4.7% £600,489 7.3% Kingston-upon-Thames £629,184 £642,770 -2.1% £621,152 1.3% £628,236 £617,060 1.8% £608,433 3.3% Southwark £622,580 £666,199 -6.5% £594,483 4.7% Lambeth £614,581 £663,340 -7.4% £661,335 -7.1% Haringey £613,476 £627,767 -2.3% £596,826 2.8% Tower Hamlets £597,114 £612,339 -2.5% £572,140 4.4% Harrow £557,357 £563,941 -1.2% £530,864 5.0% Bromley £540,648 £542,418 -0.3% £493,869 9.5% Hounslow £521,988 £569,003 -8.3% £540,714 -3.5% £473,764 £471,790 0.4% £444,266 6.6% Enfield £471,210 £472,435 -0.3% £426,396 10.5% Waltham Forest £465,682 £478,780 -2.7% £413,392 12.6% Lewisham £459,859 £473,319 -2.8% £440,580 4.4% Redbridge £456,376 £465,013 -1.9% £417,825 9.2% Greenwich £443,611 £446,748 -0.7% £427,976 3.7% Sutton £438,134 £434,218 0.9% £388,615 12.7% £423,105 £427,734 -1.1% £377,114 12.2% Havering £394,640 £394,123 0.1% £339,631 16.2% Newham £392,005 £408,269 -4.0% £361,697 8.4% Bexley £356,804 £361,737 -1.4% £321,933 10.8% Barking and Dagenham £305,117 £299,534 1.9% £257,180 18.6% Source: Rightmove House Price Index July 2016

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3.3 National and London rents RICS UK Residential Market Survey- June 2016 (previously RICS UK Lettings Survey)  Tenant demand increased moderately in June.  There was a small decline in the number of new properties to be let  Rents are expected to rise moderately over the next three months

The following bullet points are some of the key points from the HomeLet Rental Index- June 2016  Excluding London rents, the average UK rent for tenancies in the three months leading up to June 2016 was £773pcm. This was 3.5% higher than in the same period last year (£747pcm).  Average rental values increased in ten out of twelve regions of the UK, compared with this time last year.  The first half of 2016 saw a slower rate of rental growth than the same period last year.

And in London:  The average cost of renting a home in London was 3.9% more expensive than in June 2015 at £1,575 per month.  Average rents in London are 104% higher than the rest of the UK.

Also from the Homelet Rental Index- June 2016

Homelet have also analysed the rents charged on all new tenancies between the 1st July 2015 and the 31st June 2016 by London borough. The latest rental index shows the average rent charged during that period and the % increase since the same period the year before:

London borough Avg rent 12 months to June 16 Annual variance Bexley £1030 5.4% Bromley £1314 4.9% Greenwich £1447 6.7% Lewisham £1381 6.1% Southwark £1766 6.1%

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4.0 Southwark Housing Market

In this section we focus on the Southwark housing market. We examine prices and rents in detail across small geographic areas such as wards and postcodes and identify the costs of different housing types within these areas. Our information on prices is taken from Hometrack’s Real Demand programme and the information on rents is taken from Zoopla.com. A big difference is that Real Demand measures its areas in wards, whereas Zoopla.com provides its information by postcode. It is hard to show how wards and postcodes align. The following table shows broadly how areas and postcodes relate to each other. A map is also included, Southwark is the purple borough. Postcode Main Area Postcode Main Area SE1 Borough, Waterloo SE17 SE5 SE21 SE11 SE22 Dulwich SE15 Peckham SE24 , SE16

Below are descriptions of some common data terms used in this section:  Median. This is the middle value of a set of data and represents the average price of a property  Lower quartile. This is calculated by ordering the data from the smallest to largest and finding the value that lays 25% of the way up the data. This represents the more affordable properties  Upper quartile. This is calculated by ordering the data from the smallest to the largest and finding the value that lays 75% of the way up the data. This represents the most expensive properties.

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Map1 – Postcode districts within Southwark

4.1 Southwark house prices We will now have a detailed look at house prices looking at these based on local authority areas. The following tables display a comprehensive price list for housing in Southwark at a borough and ward level for both the average price and the lower quartile price. Borough averages for the South East London sub region and Lambeth are also listed for comparison. The data for May 2016 was downloaded in July 2016. The Southwark average house price (Hometrack) for May 2016 was £599,453, an increase of 7.3% since May 2015. House prices vary across the borough with properties in Cathedrals ward costing almost twice as much as those in Peckham, per square metre.

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Table 4a – Average prices in Southwark by ward and housing type, May 2016 (Red is highest value and blue is lowest value) Borough and Wards Overall Sq. Sq. Detached Semi Terraced Flat Average Metre Foot

Bexley 342,341 553,782 401,266 318,710 214,001 3,680 342 Bromley 489,661 847,189 527,793 432,936 312,722 4,454 414 Greenwich 434,599 1,002,840 589,988 451,411 362,405 4,966 461 Lambeth 615,859 1,252,154 1,143,496 925,877 473,904 6,759 628 Lewisham 451,998 887,056 716,152 549,029 352,244 5,265 489 Southwark 599,453 1,418,359 1,139,373 823,035 506,153 6,986 649 558,669 655,000 1,210,000 947,592 393,195 6,090 566 435,322 n/a 930,000 744,773 402,000 5,953 553 Cathedrals 918,446 2,875,000 n/a 1,228,933 889,438 9,348 868 Chaucer 550,301 n/a n/a 1,200,000 537,925 7,934 737 College 614,783 1,546,417 1,169,880 809,630 372,241 5,531 514 719,026 866,000 1,065,785 844,931 457,959 7,284 677 East Walworth 474,088 1,025,000 797,966 931,558 386,944 6,382 593 Faraday 428,194 n/a n/a 618,125 379,179 6,166 573 Grange 630,838 2,500,000 n/a 1,212,550 596,978 8,221 764 Livesey 398,705 1,000,000 n/a 596,598 372,387 6,669 620 Newington 468,931 n/a 550,000 699,750 439,899 6,424 597 510,917 1,148,000 791,000 669,122 342,171 5,873 546 Peckham 383085 n/a 497,667 563,946 327,017 5,287 491 622313 1,281,000 993,217 826,467 430,249 6,528 606 Riverside 742,977 n/a n/a 967,235 727,352 9,028 839 Rotherhithe 489,608 400,000 725,000 766,018 429,268 6,695 622 395,295 n/a n/a 558,927 364,614 5,859 544 South Camberwell 619,641 1,825,000 1,051,219 865,151 471,613 6,992 650 Docks 488,517 495,000 578,750 685,444 456,651 7,069 657 The Lane 570,267 953,333 902,143 821,549 413,572 6,775 629 Village 1,117,085 2,171,786 1,589,904 1,205,174 544,791 7,591 705 Source: Real Demand (Hometrack) 622313

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Table 4b – Lower quartile prices in Southwark by ward and housing type, May 2016 (Red is highest value and blue is lowest value) Borough and Sq. Sq. Wards Overall Detached Semi Terraced Flat Metre Foot

Bexley 260,000 410,000 335,000 280,000 180,000 3,182 296 Bromley 320,000 590,000 415,000 335,000 253,000 3,780 351 Greenwich 292,500 480,000 400,000 317,500 250,000 3,714 345 Lambeth 385,000 805,000 775,000 610,000 351,500 5,431 505 Lewisham 305,000 650,000 480,000 400,000 280,000 4,310 400 Southwark 373,000 850,000 860,250 620,000 349,000 5,690 529 Brunswick Park 315,000 485,000 920,000 750,000 290,000 5,051 469 Camberwell Green 321,000 n/a 930,000 690,000 320,000 5,233 486 Cathedrals 540,000 2,875,000 n/a 1,025,000 530,000 8,034 746 Chaucer 380,000 n/a n/a 1,000,000 380,000 6,839 635 College 325,000 900,000 985,000 500,000 288,000 4,529 421 East Dulwich 480,000 650,000 950,000 695,000 400,000 6,360 591 East Walworth 308,000 1,025,000 360,932 550,000 283,000 5,368 499 Faraday 300,000 n/a n/a 500,000 255,000 4,800 446 Grange 420,000 2,500,000 n/a 600,000 420,000 6,667 619 Livesey 300,000 1,000,000 n/a 430,000 300,000 5,640 524 Newington 360,000 n/a 550,000 562,500 350,000 4,957 460 Nunhead 320,000 875,000 500,000 575,000 280,000 5,000 465 Peckham 300,000 n/a 500,000 490,000 285,000 4,412 410 Peckham Rye 385,000 1,650,000 850,000 685,000 350,000 5,714 531 Riverside 465,000 n/a n/a 700,000 455,000 7,077 657 Rotherhithe 350,000 400,000 700,000 585,000 330,000 5,538 515 South Bermondsey 325,000 n/a n/a 510,000 320,000 5,152 479 South Camberwell 425,000 1,700,000 870,250 540,000 374,000 5,990 556 Surrey Docks 380,000 495,000 400,000 570,000 374,000 6,197 576 The Lane 382,500 920,000 900,000 592,500 340,000 5,632 523 Village 600,000 1,837,500 1,300,000 1,065,000 450,000 6,566 610 Source: Real Demand (Hometrack)

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Table 5a – Average prices in Southwark by ward, housing type and size, May 2016 (Red is highest value and blue is lowest value) Area 1 bed 2 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed Prices Prices Prices Prices Prices (Flat) (Flat) (House) (House) (House) Bexley 181,482 233,078 308,867 367,057 486,380 Bromley 261,464 332,092 372,531 481,728 678,862 Greenwich 286,101 373,437 385,140 467,568 675,815 Lambeth 387,002 493,506 697,736 748,739 993,432 Lewisham 286,983 375,361 438,965 536,833 744,468 Southwark 384,006 520,457 627,750 786,313 1,043,212 Brunswick Park Ward 307,613 493,130 636,250 779,545 1,089,571 Camberwell Green 308,848 437,091 711,667 766,786 n/a Cathedrals Ward 537,313 730,503 775,000 1,193,000 1,387,500 Chaucer Ward 425,217 569,229 n/a n/a 1,200,000 College Ward 284,250 370,405 n/a 633,231 992,333 East Dulwich Ward 385,333 487,673 693,310 884,912 1,022,315 East Walworth Ward 325,981 443,872 n/a 488,417 1,277,000 Faraday Ward 367,200 459,222 n/a 728,333 n/a Grange Ward 417,137 674,165 562,500 967,500 n/a Livesey Ward 365,984 407,824 619,631 640,000 n/a Newington Ward 358,216 466,163 680,000 540,000 753,750 Nunhead Ward 309,777 366,303 562,455 719,546 1,113,929 Peckham Ward 295,798 347,141 408,333 599,546 647,000 Peckham Rye Ward 370,415 448,755 608,875 875,875 936,227 Riverside Ward 522,977 771,372 592,667 933,333 1,346,250 Rotherhithe Ward 369,124 450,696 742,500 684,000 878,571 South Bermondsey 303,212 404,318 n/a 606,589 n/a South Camberwell 377,563 508,938 544,214 758,050 1,204,477 Surrey Docks Ward 372,789 490,768 605,222 748,833 764,286 The Lane Ward 346,442 467,357 586,700 780,756 1,010,170 Village Ward 392,136 552,929 n/a 958,267 1,328,022 Source: Real Demand (Hometrack)

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Table 5b – Lower quartile prices in Southwark by ward, housing type and size, May 2016 (Red is highest value and blue is lowest value) Area 1 bed 2 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed Prices Prices Prices Prices Prices (Flat) (Flat) (House) (House) (House) Bexley 139,250 185,000 257,000 298,625 386,250 Bromley 200,000 273,750 284,000 369,463 508,000 Greenwich 185,000 240,000 270,000 320,000 480,000 Lambeth 295,750 375,000 447,750 520,000 765,000 Lewisham 215,000 280,750 296,000 410,000 569,250 Southwark 295,500 370,000 500,000 600,000 835,000 Brunswick Park Ward 240,000 400,000 563,750 727,500 863,750 Camberwell Green 247,500 350,000 630,000 691,250 n/a Cathedrals Ward 400,750 530,000 700,000 1,150,000 1,368,750 Chaucer Ward 332,500 407,500 n/a n/a 1,100,000 College Ward 270,750 326,250 n/a 426,000 800,000 East Dulwich Ward 360,000 436,125 645,000 815,000 920,000 East Walworth Ward 277,000 352,500 n/a 476,250 1,100,000 Faraday Ward 366,000 404,000 n/a 707,500 n/a Grange Ward 326,500 500,000 543,750 692,500 n/a Livesey Ward 305,000 332,500 422,500 595,000 n/a Newington Ward 293,000 379,000 632,500 535,000 621,250 Nunhead Ward 273,750 292,000 475,000 652,500 678,250 Peckham Ward 271,250 317,750 283,750 550,000 614,500 Peckham Rye Ward 333,625 382,500 582,250 787,500 837,500 Riverside Ward 377,000 511,250 514,000 737,500 1,225,000 Rotherhithe Ward 292,500 350,000 583,750 645,000 775,000 South Bermondsey 270,000 350,000 n/a 526,250 n/a South Camberwell 311,750 438,563 517,500 637,500 890,000 Surrey Docks Ward 345,000 441,700 520,000 680,000 752,500 The Lane Ward 318,125 403,750 570,000 650,000 849,950 Village Ward 355,000 527,500 n/a 726,250 1,187,500 Source: Real Demand (Hometrack)

In the next graph, Graph 1, we can see the trends in house prices over the last few years. There is a clear gap between Southwark and Lambeth and the others in terms of average prices. These graphs are based on an average over the previous 6 months as well as land registry data.

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Graph 1 – Average price changes in South East London and Lambeth, Nov 2007 - May 2016

Source: Real Demand (Hometrack)

Graph 2 – Lower quartile price changes in South East London and Lambeth, Nov 2007 - May 2016

Source: Real Demand (Hometrack)

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The next table is a detailed ward level look at price changes in Southwark since the last Southwark Market Trends Bulletin (No.50), for the average prices and lower quartile prices.

Table 6 – Average and lower quartile price comparison, November 2015 – May 2016

Average Average LQ Q3, LQ Q1, % Name Q3, Q1 % change 2015/16 2016/17 change 2015/16 2016/17 Bexley (LB) 324,822 342,341 5.4 245,000 260,000 6.1 Bromley 488,836 489,661 0.2 310,000 320,000 3.2 Greenwich 442,613 434,599 -1.8 275,500 292,500 6.2 Lambeth 610,342 615,859 0.9 375,000 385,000 2.7 Lewisham 435,573 451,998 3.8 290,000 305,000 5.2 Southwark 586,698 599,453 2.2 367,500 373,000 1.5 Brunswick Park 569,688 558,669 -1.9 337,000 315,000 -6.5 Camberwell Green 403,053 435,322 8.0 340,000 321,000 -5.6 Cathedrals 668,039 918,446 37.5 450,000 540,000 20.0 Chaucer 573,610 550,301 -4.1 395,000 380,000 -3.8 College 730,997 614,783 -15.9 307,500 325,000 5.7 East Dulwich 719,684 719,026 -0.1 467,500 480,000 2.7 East Walworth 471,898 474,088 0.5 310,000 308,000 -0.6 Faraday 437,136 428,194 -2.0 340,000 300,000 -11.8 Grange 606,437 630,838 4.0 403,000 420,000 4.2 Livesey 382,839 398,705 4.1 295,000 300,000 1.7 Newington 480,094 468,931 -2.3 380,000 360,000 -5.3 Nunhead 506,403 510,917 0.9 325,000 320,000 -1.5 Peckham Rye 619030 622,313 0.5 389,950 385,000 -1.3 Peckham 340,671 383,085 12.5 275,000 300,000 9.1 Riverside 730,493 742,977 1.7 467,000 465,000 -0.4 Rotherhithe 456,919 489,608 7.2 340,000 350,000 2.9 South Bermondsey 376,436 395,295 5.0 300,000 325,000 8.3 South Camberwell 678,164 619,641 -8.6 400,000 425,000 6.3 Surrey Docks 479,259 488,517 1.9 380,000 380,000 0.0 The Lane 616,426 570,267 -7.5 385,000 382,500 -0.6 Village 1,192,524 1,117,085 -6.3 670,000 600,000 -10.4 Source: Real Demand (Hometrack)

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Map 2 – Lower quartile South East London and Lambeth overall prices by ward, May 2016

Source: Real Demand (Hometrack) Map 3 – South East London and Lambeth annual change in average prices by ward, May 2016

Source: Real Demand (Hometrack)

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Map 4 – South East London and Lambeth three year change in average prices by ward, May 2016

Source: Real Demand (Hometrack)

Graph 3 and 4 – Average (Graph 3) and Lower Quartile (Graph 4) prices across the Southwark borough between Nov 2010 and May 2016.

Source: Real Demand (Hometrack)

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Source: Real Demand (Hometrack)

4.2 Southwark rents

This section displays information on the data on a postcode basis and for properties advertised on the internet. This information was downloaded in July 2016 from Zoopla. The median monthly rent for a 2 bedroom property in Southwark in July 2016 was £1,907. However, prices vary across the borough (see Map 5). Table 7 shows that SE1 has the most expensive rents in the borough for properties of all sizes, except those with 4 bedrooms plus and studios. SE21 is most expensive for 4 bedroom plus properties and SE16 is the most expensive for studios. Table 7 shows that the cheapest lower quartile rents can be found in SE15 and SE21, whilst the cheapest average (median) rents are also in SE15.

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Table 7 – Advertised monthly private sector rents, July 2016, by property type/size and postcode. The Southwark average excludes SE11. (Please exercise caution when using small sample sizes. * indicates the sample is equal or less than 3) (Red is highest value, by property size, and blue is lowest value). In previous bulletins we have downloaded advertised rents from Findaproperty.com. In 2012 Zoopla merged with Findaproperty.com and Primelocation.com).

Lower Upper Area/Postcode Size Median Mean Count Quartile Quartile Southwark Studio 930 1106 1495 1334 116 Southwark 1 1350 1649 1950 1764 780 Southwark 2 1625 1907 2492 2175 1086 Southwark 3 2000 2275 2871 2740 408 Southwark 4+ 2600 3033 3466 3140 245 SE1 Studio 953 1279 1517 1386 47 SE1 1 1603 1842 2058 1989 482 SE1 2 1907 2297 2817 2535 595 SE1 3 2167 2654 3878 3320 194 SE1 4+ 2817 3250 3467 3308 58 SE5 Studio 999 1204 1311 1155 4 SE5 1 1190 1250 1365 1316 33 SE5 2 1450 1560 1700 1647 71 SE5 3 1810 2000 2200 2029 44 SE5 4+ 2201 2496 3033 2692 27 SE11 Studio * * * * 1 SE11 1 1348 1473 1582 1525 39 SE11 2 1668 1846 2113 1934 64 SE11 3 2123 2600 3012 2670 23 SE11 4+ 2860 3505 3575 3346 6 SE15 Studio 672 772 1040 829 6 SE15 1 1195 1295 1350 1312 37 SE15 2 1400 1499 1600 1569 52 SE15 3 1799 2000 2200 2120 29 SE15 4+ 2598 2750 3123 2962 32 SE16 Studio 1127 1430 2384 1735 29 SE16 1 1300 1517 1668 1504 140 SE16 2 1582 1733 1950 1830 202 SE16 3 2029 2232 2600 2372 60 SE16 4+ 2427 2795 3198 2693 23 SE17 Studio 870 1019 1114 1010 18 SE17 1 1200 1343 1517 1387 34 SE17 2 1647 1800 1950 1801 59 SE17 3 1950 2167 2297 2136 25 SE17 4+ 3000 3088 3250 3058 38 SE21 Studio * * * * 0 SE21 1 1095 1250 1350 1203 14 SE21 2 1322 1509 1798 1690 22 SE21 3 1850 2025 2400 2238 18 SE21 4+ 2875 3825 4499 3907 24 SE22 Studio 763 950 999 964 8 SE22 1 1172 1290 1338 1223 24 SE22 2 1426 1547 1700 1630 42 SE22 3 1998 2167 2450 2252 23 SE22 4+ 2700 2994 3500 3068 29 SE24 Studio 925 950 973 949 4 SE24 1 1225 1300 1450 1343 16

20 Housing Market Trends Bulletin July 2016

SE24 2 1545 1625 1795 1720 43 SE24 3 2002 2167 2700 2357 15 SE24 4+ 2795 3400 4000 3503 14 Source: www.Zoopla.com Table 8 – The % change in lower quartile and average rents between January 2016 and July 2016. (Please exercise caution when using small sample sizes. Sample sizes of 3 or less have been omitted. Changes can be exaggerated by the condition of the property or location of the property.)

Borough Lower Q3, Q1, Type & Median % & Quartile % 2015/16, 2016/17, Size change Postcode change Count Count Southwark Studio -11.4 -7.8 76 116 Southwark 1 -3.6 0.1 531 780 Southwark 2 -1.5 -2.2 716 1086 Southwark 3 -4.9 -6.3 232 408 Southwark 4+ 2.6 1.1 131 245 SE1 Studio -26.7 -11.2 28 47 SE1 1 1.3 2.4 317 482 SE1 2 -4.3 -3.6 342 595 SE1 3 -9.1 -15.5 105 194 SE1 4+ 12.1 6.4 28 58 SE5 Studio -7.4 2.4 10 4 SE5 1 -0.8 -3.8 19 33 SE5 2 -0.1 0.6 32 71 SE5 3 -2.8 6.7 17 44 SE5 4+ -13.2 -16.8 21 27 SE11 Studio * * 1 1 SE11 1 -4.3 -5.6 30 39 SE11 2 -3.8 0.2 47 64 SE11 3 -9.3 -1.9 11 23 SE11 4+ -4.7 -0.1 6 6 SE15 Studio 9.1 -14.2 6 6 SE15 1 2.1 3.6 19 37 SE15 2 0.0 -0.1 55 52 SE15 3 -2.5 -5.2 14 29 SE15 4+ 18.1 10.2 15 32 SE16 Studio 0.0 17.9 13 29 SE16 1 -7.1 0.0 127 140 SE16 2 -8.3 -11.1 171 202 SE16 3 -5.4 -10.7 46 60 SE16 4+ -6.7 5.3 20 23 SE17 Studio -16.7 -3.3 8 18 SE17 1 -4.0 -4.1 18 34 SE17 2 2.0 3.9 44 59 SE17 3 -9.1 -4.7 17 25 SE17 4+ -7.7 -5.0 9 38 SE21 Studio * * 5 0 SE21 1 -4.8 0.0 6 14 SE21 2 -5.6 -3.5 16 22 SE21 3 * * 3 18

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SE21 4+ 19.7 -15.0 6 24 SE22 Studio -23.7 -15.0 6 8 SE22 1 2.4 -0.8 18 24 SE22 2 1.9 -0.2 35 42 SE22 3 9.6 -1.5 16 23 SE22 4+ 5.9 -0.2 27 29 SE24 Studio * * 0 4 SE24 1 6.5 6.0 7 16 SE24 2 -0.3 -4.6 21 43 SE24 3 0.4 5.2 14 15 SE24 4+ -6.7 6.3 5 14 Source: Zoopla.com Note: * indicates data not available

Map 5 – Two bedrooms lower quartile monthly rents in Southwark, July 2016

Source: Data collected and analysed from Zoopla.com

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The Valuation Office Agency (VOA) publishes their analysis of achieved rents, reported to them by letting agents and landlords, for each local authority in England. This data has been collected over the twelve months up to March 2016 but excludes lettings where the tenant needs to pay using Housing Benefit.

Table 9a compares data for Southwark from our last Market Trends Bulletin (#51) (downloaded and analysed from Zoopla in April 2016) and the March 2016 VOA findings. Table 9b looks at average increases in rents in Southwark, using VOA data.

There are several factors to consider when looking at the difference in findings. The first is the timing of the data collected (over twelve months, compared to a snapshot). Another factor is that the VOA rents are achieved rents compared to advertised rents.

Table 9a- Comparison of VOA Southwark data and data downloaded from Zoopla VOA Rents MTB rents (median) (April (median), Q4

2015 to March 2015/16, April 16) (£pm) 16 data (£pm)

Room £700 £715 Studio £1,024 £1,203 1 bedroom £1,278 £1,625 2 bedrooms £1,560 £1,950 3 bedrooms £1,900 £2,450 4 bedrooms + £2,600 £3,033

Table 9b- VOA Data, Southwark average rent increases (median) (for rents achieved in the 12 months leading up to March 2016)

Rooms Studios 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed + Mar-15 £585 £1,000 £1,250 £1,517 £1,889 £2,400 Mar-16 £700 £1,024 £1,278 £1,560 £1,900 £2,600 % change 19.7 2.4 2.2 2.8 0.6 8.3

The following tables (Tables 9c and 9d) show the increase in rents in Southwark, by property size, between 2011 and 2016 using advertised data, downloaded and analysed for the MTB.

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Chart 9c- Average rent increase in Southwark 2011-16, using advertised rents in Southwark (downloaded and analysed for the MTB, bulletin numbers in brackets)

Table 9d- 5 year % increase in advertised rents in Southwark

5 year % increase

Jul-11 Jul-16 % increase Room £555 £698 25.8 Studio £1,087 £1,106 1.7 1 bedroom £1,217 £1,649 35.5 2 bedroom £1,631 £1,907 16.9 3 bedroom £1,957 £2,275 16.2 4 bedroom+ £2,533 £3,033 19.7

4.3 Southwark room rents (Spareroom.co.uk) Single rooms are a very important source of accommodation. This is because often they are the only affordable accommodation for single people, especially young single people. The Local Housing Allowance level (frozen for the year in April 2016) for single rooms in inner south east London is £95.18 per week and for outer south east London it is £84.27 per week. As we can see from the table below there is not much choice for people who need shared accommodation that can be covered solely by housing benefit. The inner SE London area covers Southwark, most of Lewisham and the western half of Greenwich. The outer London area covers Bexley, most of Bromley, the southern parts of Lewisham and the eastern half of Greenwich.

24 Housing Market Trends Bulletin July 2016

Table 10 - Weekly room rents in Southwark, July 2016 (Red is highest value and blue is lowest value) Weekly Rent Area Lower Upper Median Mean Count Quartile Quartile Southwark (excluding 138 161 190 168 1656 SE11) SE1 153 184 218 189 483 SE5 129 149 167 151 191 SE11 155 172 197 175 138 SE15 126 143 161 146 232 SE16 149 171 195 176 378 SE17 140 161 184 162 190 SE21 115 142 184 152 28 SE22 124 147 170 148 86 SE24 138 149 166 154 68 Source: Data collected and analysed from spareroom.co.uk and zoopla

Table 11 shows that there were more than twice as many properties being advertised and therefore included in the analysis in July 2016. This is likely to be a seasonal reoccurrence.

The lower quartile, median, upper quartile and mean rents all fell.

Table 11- The % change in room rents, number of rooms advertised, between January 2016 and July 2016 in Southwark Weekly Rent Lower Upper Median Mean Count Quartile Quartile Jan-16 143 168 195 185 823 Jul-16 138 161 190 168 1656 % -3.4 -4.2 -2.7 -9.0 101.2 change

25 Housing Market Trends Bulletin July 2016

Map 6 – Weekly lower quartile room rents in Southwark, July 2016

Source: Data collected and analysed from zoopla and spareroom.co.uk

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