[Thesis Title Goes Here]

THE POTENTIAL OF EXPRESS BUS TO SERVE PEAK TRAVEL DEMAND TO OUTLYING EMPLOYMENT CENTERS: A CASE STUDY OF THE ATLANTA REGION A Thesis Presented to The Academic Faculty by Jeffrey D. Ultee In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degrees Master of City and Regional Planning in the School of City and Regional Planning and Master of Science in the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology May, 2016 COPYRIGHT © 2016 BY JEFFREY D. ULTEE THE POTENTIAL OF EXPRESS BUS TO SERVE PEAK TRAVEL DEMAND TO OUTLYING EMPLOYMENT CENTERS: A CASE STUDY OF THE ATLANTA REGION Approved by: Dr. Timothy F. Welch, Advisor School of City and Regional Planning Georgia Institute of Technology Dr. Patricia L. Mokhtarian, Co-Advisor School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology Dr. Ram Pendyala School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology Date Approved: January 6, 2016 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I first would like to acknowledge my two advisors – Pat Mokhtarian and Tim Welch. I have known both of them in more than one capacity over the past two years. Pat instructed me in Discrete Choice Modeling and later employed me as a grader for an undergraduate statistics course. She is an inspiring, accomplished, and supportive woman with whom I have related well. Tim has instructed me in two courses and has patiently guided me from the beginning through an evolution of thesis topics. He has allowed me to use the server in his research center to run models for this thesis. Second, I would like to acknowledge the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC). Not only has the organization provided me with models needed for thesis, but it also employed me for seven months in its travel demand modeling group. This experience has allowed me to gain the needed familiarity with Atlanta’s model. I acknowledge Guy Rousseau and Kyeil Kim for allowing me to intern for them. I also acknowledge Steve Lewandowski for providing me with the models for the thesis and answering any questions that I had. Third, before interning for ARC, I took a travel demand analysis class in the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering (CEE) at Georgia Tech, in which I learned about four-step modeling and Cube. I am thankful to the CEE school and instructor Greg Macfarlane for providing this very useful and practical course, for without it, the modeling component of this thesis may not have been possible. Fourth, I acknowledge two transit agencies who have helped with this thesis: GRTA and MARTA. GRTA helped in three ways. First, Laura Beall and Alex Poznanski iii devoted their time to explaining the agency and their COA to me via emails and a telephone conversation. Second, as a side activity that is not directly related to this thesis, I did ridechecking for GRTA’s COA through consultant Metro Planning and Engineering (MPE) in 2014. This experience provided an informal introduction to the experience of riding GRTA Xpress buses. Third, in 2012, when Ms. Beall delivered a guest lecture about GRTA to my transportation planning class, I felt inspired about the potential of express bus, which ultimately led to this thesis. MARTA, which has also conducted a COA, helped by providing me with draft plans, via contact person Kelly Hayden. Finally, I would like to acknowledge my parents for their generous support of me through graduate school and life in general. My graduate school experience would not have been the same without them. I am grateful for the countless persons and entities, both mentioned and not mentioned, that have made this thesis possible. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iii LIST OF TABLES ix LIST OF FIGURES xv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xviii SUMMARY xx CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1 CHAPTER 2 Background 4 2.1 Context of Atlanta 4 2.1.1 History 4 2.1.2 The State of Express and Rapid Transit in the Atlanta Metro 9 2.1.3 Commuting Studies in the Region 12 2.1.4 Employment and Population in the Atlanta Region 18 2.1.5 ARC’s Regional Transit Vision 20 2.2 Literature Support for a Polycentric Service Strategy 22 Hartshorn’s Book Chapter 22 Brown and Thompson 23 Cervero’s Suburban Gridlock 25 Jarrett Walker’s Human Transit 25 Thesis on Montreal’s Champlain Bridge 27 Paper on Charlotte’s express bus system 28 2.3 Concluding Remarks 28 CHAPTER 3 Methodology and Preliminary Scenarios 30 3.1 Explanation of Each Preliminary Scenario 32 3.1.1 2015 Baseline 32 3.1.2 2020 Baseline 35 3.1.3 2020 Stage 1 36 3.2 Results of the Preliminary Scenarios 45 3.2.1 2015 Base to 2020 Base 45 3.2.2 2020 Base to 2020 Stage 1 48 3.3 Conclusions from the Preliminary Scenarios 56 CHAPTER 4 Experimental Scenairo Design 57 4.1 Service Strategies 57 Macro Strategy 1: Intermediate Stopping 57 Macro Strategy 2: Enhanced Connectivity within the Center 62 v Macro Strategy 3: Connections to Other Regional Transit 64 Macro Strategy 4: Route Extensions 65 Macro Strategy 5: Attention to the Reverse Commute 66 Macro Strategy 6: New and Repurposed Express Routes 66 Macro Strategy 7: Connectivity between Transit Agencies 67 4.2 Identified Centers 69 North Point and Windward 69 Perimeter Center 70 Druid Hills and Kensington 71 Airport 72 Cumberland 73 Sugarloaf Mills and Gwinnett Place 74 Doraville 75 Southlake Mall 75 Fulton Industrial 76 Town Center 77 Marietta 77 Indian Trail / Peachtree Corners 78 Chamblee-Tucker and Northlake Mall 78 Atlantic Station and Bellemeade 79 4.3 Concluding Remarks 79 CHAPTER 5 Experimental Scenario Results 80 5.1 Region Level Results 80 5.2 Route Level Results 83 5.2.1 Express Bus Boardings 83 5.2.2 Local Bus Boardings 84 5.3 Node Level Results 87 5.4 Concluding Remarks 91 CHAPTER 6 Conclusions 93 6.1 Findings 93 6.2 Limitations and Further Research 94 Modeling Approach 94 Broader Planning Goals 98 Greater Attention to the Reverse Commute 101 Alternative Service Strategies 101 Decentralizing Transit within the City of Atlanta 102 6.3 Closing Remarks 102 APPENDIX A Trip-Based Model of the ARC 103 The Four Steps 103 Step 1: Trip Generation 103 Step 2: Trip Distribution 104 Step 3: Mode Choice 104 Step 4: Route Assignment 105 vi Feedback loops 106 Time of Day Assignment 106 Highway and Transit Coding 106 Data Caution 108 APPENDIX B Detailed Stage 1 Changes 109 GRTA Xpress Changes 109 Employment Center Routing 109 Individual Bus Route Changes 112 Fares 118 MARTA bus changes 119 Express bus routes 119 Connecting local bus 121 APPENDIX C Regional Measures for Preliminary Scenarios 122 APPENDIX D Boardings by Route for Preliminary Scenarios 126 Express Bus Results 126 Heavy Rail Results 134 Local Bus Results 135 APPENDIX E Detailed Plan for the Experimental Scenario 150 Corridor-Level Changes 150 North Quadrant 150 East Quadrant 156 South Quadrant 157 West Quadrant 158 Employment Center Changes 159 I-75 NW Centers 159 GA-400 Centers 164 I-85 NE and GA-141 Centers 168 Other Centers 171 APPENDIX F Regional Measures for the Experimental Scenario 179 APPENDIX G Route Boardings for the Experimental Scenario 181 APPENDIX H Node-Level Results for the Experimental Scenario 191 I-75 NW 191 Town Center 191 Marietta 192 Cumberland 193 GA-400 195 North Point and Windward 195 Perimeter Center 196 I-85 NE and GA-141 200 vii Sugarloaf Mills and Gwinnett Place 200 Indian Trail and Peachtree Corners 201 Doraville 203 Other Centers 204 Northlake Mall and Chamblee-Tucker 204 Druid Hills 205 Lindbergh Center 206 Atlantic Station and Bellemeade 207 Airport 207 Fulton Industrial 208 Southlake Mall 209 APPENDIX I MARTA Proposed Phase 1 changes 210 REFERENCES 215 viii LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1: Breakdown of Commuting in the Atlanta Region - Year 2000 (Zuehlke, 2007) 7 Table 2: Trips 2015 to 2020 Baseline with application of the air passenger model 46 Table 3: Trips 2015 to 2020 Baseline without application of the air passenger model 46 Table 4: Transit trips by mode 2015 Base to 2020 Base 47 Table 5: Transit boardings by mode 2015 Base to 2020 Base 47 Table 6: Select I-75 NW express routes 2015 Base to 2020 Base 47 Table 7: Trips 2020 Base to Stage 1 with application of the air passenger model 49 Table 8: Trips 2020 Base to Stage 1 without application of the air passenger model 49 Table 9: Transit trips by mode, 2020 Base to Stage 1 50 Table 10: Transit boardings by mode, 2020 Base to Stage 1 50 Table 11: GRTA Xpress routes that are combined in Stage 1 (Horizon 1) 51 Table 12: GRTA Xpress routes with frequency reductions – total boardings 52 Table 13: GRTA Xpress routes with frequency reductions - boardings per run 52 Table 14: GRTA Xpress Perimeter Center routes - total boardings 53 Table 15: GRTA Xpress I-85 NE routes to Midtown 54 Table 16: MARTA GA-400 express routes boardings 55 Table 17: Results Stage 1 to Experimental with application of the air passenger model 81 Table 18: Results Stage 1 to Experimental without application of the air passenger model 81 Table 19: Transit trips, 2020 Stage 1 to Experimental 82 ix Table 20: Transit boardings, 2020 Stage 1 to Experimental 82 Table 21: Trips without Application of the Air Passenger Model 122 Table 22: Trips without Application of the Air Passenger Model - Absolute and Percent Changes 122 Table 23: Trips with Application of the Air Passenger Model 122 Table 24: Trips with Application of the Air Passenger Model - Absolute and Percent Changes 123 Table 25: HBW trips 123 Table 26: HBW Trips - Absolute and Percent Changes 123 Table 27: HBO Trips 124 Table 28: HBO Trips - Absolute and Percent Changes 124 Table 29: NHB trips 124 Table 30: NHB Trips - Absolute and Percent Changes 124 Table 31: Transit Trips by Mode 125 Table 32: Transit Trips by Mode - Absolute and Percent Changes 125 Table 33: Transit Boardings by Mode 125 Table 34: Transit Boardings by Mode - Absolute and Percent Changes 125 Table 35: Express Bus Boardings – 2015 vs.

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