Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor.
Disclosure: Paul Gipe has worked with Aerovironment, ANZSES, APROMA, ASES, AusWEA, AWEA, BWEA, BWE, CanWEA, CAW, DGW, DSF, EECA, ES&T, GEO, GPI Atlantic, IREQ, KWEA, MADE, Microsoft, ManSEA, NRCan, NRG Systems, NASA, NREL, NZWEA, ORWWG, OSEA, PG&E, SeaWest, SEI, USDOE, WAWWG, WE Energies, the Folkecenter, the Izaak Walton League, the Minnesota Project, the Sierra Club, and Zond Systems, and written for magazines in the USA, Canada, France, Denmark, and Germany.
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Wind Rush of 2005-2007
The North American Market is Like a Bucking Bronco at a Texas Rodeo
"Yee Ha! Ride Em Cowboys!"
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org World Wind Generating Capacity 2006 Megawatts (Thousands)
Europe 60 North America Asia 40
20
0 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 Year
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org 2006 World Wind Capacity
12,000 MW 48,000 MW
12,000 MW
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org World Wind Capacity 2006 ~70,000 MW
South America 1%
Europe Asia 66% 16%
Africa 0%
North America 17%
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org World Major Wind Markets
Germany
Spain
USA
India
0 5 10 15 20 25 Total MW in 2006
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org World Wind 2,000 MW Club
Denmark
Italy
China
Britain
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Megawatts in 2006
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org World Wind 1,000 MW Club
Portugal
Japan
Netherlands
Canada
Austria
France
0 500 1000 1500 2000 Megawatts in 2006
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Major Wind Markets Growth Rate 2002-2006
Germany
Spain
USA
India
China
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Average 5-Year Growth Rate MW/Year
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org North American Wind Capacity 2006
400 175 800 100 150 320 450 175 400 45 300 950 50 300 45 2,250 500 350 850 180 50 6 35 2,800 11 50
70 Paul Gipe, wind-works.org US-Canada Wind Market
MW/Year
2500 Canada 2000 USA
1500 Production Tax Credit (Subsidy)
1000
500
0
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 Year
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org 2006 US Major Markets
MW Texas California Washington New Mexico Wyoming Colorado Minnesota Iowa Oklahoma Kansas New York Pennsylvania 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org San Gorgonio Pass, California North America Major Players • USA Florida Power & Light (50% of Market 1,600 MW in Texas Scottish Power Électricité de France • Canada Trans Alta (Utility) Suncor (Oil, Tar Sands) Enbridge (Gas)
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org North American Market Major Suppliers USA • GE! • Vestas • Siemans (Bonus) • Gamesa • Suzlon (India) • Deutsch? Nein Danke!
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Ponnequin, Colorado North American Market Major Suppliers Canada Kincardine, Ontario • GE • Vestas • Enercon • Other (Vensys) • Deutsch? Ja Bitte!
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org North American Market Array Size • Central Station Plants Huge: 80-750 MW • Distributed Generation 10-30 MW
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Buffalo Ridge, Minneso North American Market Issues • US Subsidy Policy (On-Off) PTC: “No Way to Run a Business” Open Only to “Major” Players • Canada--Provincial Policy Cheap “Hydro” (Electricity) • Anti-Wind (NIMBY-NIABY) Right Wing and Pro-Nuclear Groups
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Zond Wind Wall, Tehachapi Pass Swept Area per Household
Wind Turbine Area (m2)/Household (~6.4 m/s) 14 12 TexasTexas 10 Renewable Tariffs Launched 8 Ontario
6 California 4
2 Germany
0
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Birds & Bats
• Serious Problem Tarifa? Altamont Pass (900-1,300 Raptors/yr) • A Concern Elsewhere • No Quick Fixes--No Panaceas Stripes & Whistles Don’t Work
Altamont Pass, California Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Distributed Wind Energy in North America • Niche Market? • Major Potential? • Upper Midwest Minnesota & Iowa • Southern Plains Texas--Yes, Texas! • Canada Nova Scotia Ontario--Slow Start • John Deere
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Advanced Renewable Tariffs New Policy Option for North America
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Renewable Tariffs in North America . . Unthinkable?
• Yes--Just 2 years ago • Today? No • Now Possible • Growing Trend in both USA & Canada
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org WindShare, Toronto Advanced Renewable Tariffs North American Endorsements • Ontario Liberal Party, 2004 Green Party, 2006 • Manitoba Liberal Party, 2006 KAP, Chamber of Commerce • Canada’s Federal NDP 2006 • Many NGOs But Not EDF, NRDC, & UCS
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Ferndale, Ontario California’s Original Wind Tariff Interim Standard Offer Contract #4 • 1983: ISO4 • Commercial Wind Industry Begins • 1985: ISO4 Suspended No New Contracts • 1984-1990: ~1,500 MW of Wind Installed • Wind Generates ~1% of Supply
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org San Gorgonio Pass circa 1990 Emerging ARTs Markets 2007
• Ontario 240 Applicants ~2,400 MW Potential Mostly Wind • Canada Manitoba, Saskatchewan, British Columbia • USA Minnesota, Wisconsin?
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Foote Creek Rim, Wyoming Southern Ontario • More Like Germany than Alberta Population Density Farm Size Settlement Patterns • Projects More Like Germany & Denmark? Smaller Projects Clusters of Turbines Single Turbines
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Skibsted Fjord, Denmark Ontario’s SOC/ARTs • Wind, Hydro, & Biomass: $0.11/kWh • Hydro & Biomass $0.0352/kWh on peak • Solar PV: $0.42/kWh • Inflation Adjustment: 20%, Except Solar PV • Term: 20 years
Voreifel, Germany Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Ontario’s SOCs: What’s Wrong? • Tariffs Too Low PV: 50% of What’s Needed Wind: Only Windy Sites (6.4 m/s) Biomass: $0.17 CAD/kWh MoAF • Inflation Adjustment Too Low 20% vs 50%: -2.5% ROI Set on “Portion of O&M” Influenced by Inflation • WPPI 50% Claw Back (1/2 cent)
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Ontario’s SOCs: What’s Wrong?
• Wind Tariff Differentiation Not Enough at Less Windy Sites Too Much at Windy Sites • Fundamental Philosophical Shift Cost vs Value Debate Continues Minister of Energy--Yes OPA--Absolutely, Positively No!
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Ontario Solar Tariff North American Comparison
$ CAD/kWh Over 20 Years
California Buy-Down
California Solar Tariff
Washington State
New Jersey RPS
Ontario Solar Tariff
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Prices Paid for Wind Energy in Europe
Euro Cents/kWh
Feed Law-Germany
Feed Law-France
Feed Law-Spain
Quota-Italy
Quota-Britain
Feed Law-Ontario
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Prices Paid for Solar PV in Europe
Euro Cents/kWh
Feed Law-Germany
Feed Law-France
Feed Law-Spain
Feed Law-Italy
Quota-Britain
Feed Law-Austria
Feed Law-Ontario
0 10203040506070 Advanced Renewable Tariffs A Question of Equity
• Feed Laws are Fair • Nearly All Can Play Farmers, Ranchers, First Nations, & Co-ops
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Buffalo Ridge, MN Wind Turbines . . . Sell Beer, Bier, Biere, Birra, Cerveza
Thyholmer, DK
Jever, D
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org . . . sell Texas Towns--Yee Ha!
Paul Gipe, wind-works.org . . . Pave the Sidewalk And the Way to the Future
Wellington (Brooklyn), NZ Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Wind Energy. . . For Today and for Tomorrow Technology for Life*
Paul Gipe & Assoc. *from N.F.S. Grundtvig The Renewables Revolution Has Begun! www.wind-works.org
Manawatu Gorge, New Zealand