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Presentation by Paul Gipe to Bundesverband Windenergie On Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor. Disclosure: Paul Gipe has worked with Aerovironment, ANZSES, APROMA, ASES, AusWEA, AWEA, BWEA, BWE, CanWEA, CAW, DGW, DSF, EECA, ES&T, GEO, GPI Atlantic, IREQ, KWEA, MADE, Microsoft, ManSEA, NRCan, NRG Systems, NASA, NREL, NZWEA, ORWWG, OSEA, PG&E, SeaWest, SEI, USDOE, WAWWG, WE Energies, the Folkecenter, the Izaak Walton League, the Minnesota Project, the Sierra Club, and Zond Systems, and written for magazines in the USA, Canada, France, Denmark, and Germany. Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Wind Rush of 2005-2007 The North American Market is Like a Bucking Bronco at a Texas Rodeo "Yee Ha! Ride Em Cowboys!" Paul Gipe, wind-works.org World Wind Generating Capacity 2006 Megawatts (Thousands) Europe 60 North America Asia 40 20 0 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 Year Paul Gipe, wind-works.org 2006 World Wind Capacity 12,000 MW 48,000 MW 12,000 MW Paul Gipe, wind-works.org World Wind Capacity 2006 ~70,000 MW South America 1% Europe Asia 66% 16% Africa 0% North America 17% Paul Gipe, wind-works.org World Major Wind Markets Germany Spain USA India 0 5 10 15 20 25 Total MW in 2006 Paul Gipe, wind-works.org World Wind 2,000 MW Club Denmark Italy China Britain 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Megawatts in 2006 Paul Gipe, wind-works.org World Wind 1,000 MW Club Portugal Japan Netherlands Canada Austria France 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Megawatts in 2006 Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Major Wind Markets Growth Rate 2002-2006 Germany Spain USA India China 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Average 5-Year Growth Rate MW/Year Paul Gipe, wind-works.org North American Wind Capacity 2006 400 175 800 100 150 320 450 175 400 45 300 950 50 300 45 2,250 500 350 850 180 50 6 35 2,800 11 50 70 Paul Gipe, wind-works.org US-Canada Wind Market MW/Year 2500 Canada 2000 USA 1500 Production Tax Credit (Subsidy) 1000 500 0 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 Year Paul Gipe, wind-works.org 2006 US Major Markets MW Texas California Washington New Mexico Wyoming Colorado Minnesota Iowa Oklahoma Kansas New York Pennsylvania 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Paul Gipe, wind-works.org San Gorgonio Pass, California North America Major Players • USA Florida Power & Light (50% of Market 1,600 MW in Texas Scottish Power Électricité de France • Canada Trans Alta (Utility) Suncor (Oil, Tar Sands) Enbridge (Gas) Paul Gipe, wind-works.org North American Market Major Suppliers USA • GE! • Vestas • Siemans (Bonus) • Gamesa • Suzlon (India) • Deutsch? Nein Danke! Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Ponnequin, Colorado North American Market Major Suppliers Canada Kincardine, Ontario • GE • Vestas • Enercon • Other (Vensys) • Deutsch? Ja Bitte! Paul Gipe, wind-works.org North American Market Array Size • Central Station Plants Huge: 80-750 MW • Distributed Generation 10-30 MW Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Buffalo Ridge, Minneso North American Market Issues • US Subsidy Policy (On-Off) PTC: “No Way to Run a Business” Open Only to “Major” Players • Canada--Provincial Policy Cheap “Hydro” (Electricity) • Anti-Wind (NIMBY-NIABY) Right Wing and Pro-Nuclear Groups Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Zond Wind Wall, Tehachapi Pass Swept Area per Household Wind Turbine Area (m2)/Household (~6.4 m/s) 14 12 TexasTexas 10 Renewable Tariffs Launched 8 Ontario 6 California 4 2 Germany 0 Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Birds & Bats • Serious Problem Tarifa? Altamont Pass (900-1,300 Raptors/yr) • A Concern Elsewhere • No Quick Fixes--No Panaceas Stripes & Whistles Don’t Work Altamont Pass, California Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Distributed Wind Energy in North America • Niche Market? • Major Potential? • Upper Midwest Minnesota & Iowa • Southern Plains Texas--Yes, Texas! • Canada Nova Scotia Ontario--Slow Start • John Deere Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Advanced Renewable Tariffs New Policy Option for North America Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Renewable Tariffs in North America . Unthinkable? • Yes--Just 2 years ago • Today? No • Now Possible • Growing Trend in both USA & Canada Paul Gipe, wind-works.org WindShare, Toronto Advanced Renewable Tariffs North American Endorsements • Ontario Liberal Party, 2004 Green Party, 2006 • Manitoba Liberal Party, 2006 KAP, Chamber of Commerce • Canada’s Federal NDP 2006 • Many NGOs But Not EDF, NRDC, & UCS Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Ferndale, Ontario California’s Original Wind Tariff Interim Standard Offer Contract #4 • 1983: ISO4 • Commercial Wind Industry Begins • 1985: ISO4 Suspended No New Contracts • 1984-1990: ~1,500 MW of Wind Installed • Wind Generates ~1% of Supply Paul Gipe, wind-works.org San Gorgonio Pass circa 1990 Emerging ARTs Markets 2007 • Ontario 240 Applicants ~2,400 MW Potential Mostly Wind • Canada Manitoba, Saskatchewan, British Columbia • USA Minnesota, Wisconsin? Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Foote Creek Rim, Wyoming Southern Ontario • More Like Germany than Alberta Population Density Farm Size Settlement Patterns • Projects More Like Germany & Denmark? Smaller Projects Clusters of Turbines Single Turbines Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Skibsted Fjord, Denmark Ontario’s SOC/ARTs • Wind, Hydro, & Biomass: $0.11/kWh • Hydro & Biomass $0.0352/kWh on peak • Solar PV: $0.42/kWh • Inflation Adjustment: 20%, Except Solar PV • Term: 20 years Voreifel, Germany Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Ontario’s SOCs: What’s Wrong? • Tariffs Too Low PV: 50% of What’s Needed Wind: Only Windy Sites (6.4 m/s) Biomass: $0.17 CAD/kWh MoAF • Inflation Adjustment Too Low 20% vs 50%: -2.5% ROI Set on “Portion of O&M” Influenced by Inflation • WPPI 50% Claw Back (1/2 cent) Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Ontario’s SOCs: What’s Wrong? • Wind Tariff Differentiation Not Enough at Less Windy Sites Too Much at Windy Sites • Fundamental Philosophical Shift Cost vs Value Debate Continues Minister of Energy--Yes OPA--Absolutely, Positively No! Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Ontario Solar Tariff North American Comparison $ CAD/kWh Over 20 Years California Buy-Down California Solar Tariff Washington State New Jersey RPS Ontario Solar Tariff 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Prices Paid for Wind Energy in Europe Euro Cents/kWh Feed Law-Germany Feed Law-France Feed Law-Spain Quota-Italy Quota-Britain Feed Law-Ontario 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Prices Paid for Solar PV in Europe Euro Cents/kWh Feed Law-Germany Feed Law-France Feed Law-Spain Feed Law-Italy Quota-Britain Feed Law-Austria Feed Law-Ontario 0 10203040506070 Advanced Renewable Tariffs A Question of Equity • Feed Laws are Fair • Nearly All Can Play Farmers, Ranchers, First Nations, & Co-ops Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Buffalo Ridge, MN Wind Turbines . Sell Beer, Bier, Biere, Birra, Cerveza Thyholmer, DK Jever, D Paul Gipe, wind-works.org . sell Texas Towns--Yee Ha! Paul Gipe, wind-works.org . Pave the Sidewalk And the Way to the Future Wellington (Brooklyn), NZ Paul Gipe, wind-works.org Wind Energy. For Today and for Tomorrow Technology for Life* Paul Gipe & Assoc. *from N.F.S. Grundtvig The Renewables Revolution Has Begun! www.wind-works.org Manawatu Gorge, New Zealand.
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