Redbridge Today A portrait of the Borough Produced by the Policy Team, Strategic Services (May 2008) FOREWORD Redbridge Today is a comprehensive document that outlines the changing economic, social and demographic structure of Redbridge. As well as giving a picture of the current state of the Borough, the document also provides projections of future trends. In summary, this document: • Acts as an evidence-based resource for policy-makers, planners and other officers involved in developing strategies for delivering social, economic and infrastructure developments for the borough; • Identifies key trends and projections that are driving the make-up of Redbridge; • Provides Council Officers with up-to-date information at Borough and Ward level; • Provides us with the opportunity to compare our Borough with our neighbours; and • Attempts to bring all our research work together in one place. This robust analysis of our Borough offers us more insight into the most appropriate strategies to deliver valuable services to our residents. Cllr Alan Weinberg Roger Hampson Leader of the Council Chief Executive 2 3 Table of Contents 1. Introduction 13 4.3 Labour Market 42 4.4 Qualifications of Redbridge Residents 45 2. Demographic Analysis and Implications 15 4.5 Business and Industrial Structure 46 2.1 Introduction 16 2.2 Trends in Population Growth 16 5. Education: Children and Young People 49 2.3 Population Projections for Redbridge 17 5.1 Introduction 50 2.4 Population Trends at Ward Level 17 5.2 Early Years and Childcare 50 2.5 Population Distribution 18 5.3 Primary and Secondary School Census 51 2.6 Population Density 19 5.3.1 Total Number of School Pupils 51 2.7 Redbridge Age Profile 19 5.3.2 Pupil Mobility in Primary Schools 53 2.8 Age Structure at Ward Level 21 5.3.3 Staff, Class Sizes and Information 2.9 Components of Population Change 22 Communication Technology (ICT) 53 2.10 Natural Change in Population 22 5.4 Pupil Characteristics 54 2.11 Migration 22 5.4.1 Free School Meals 54 2.12 Ethnic Diversity 24 5.5 Ethnicity 55 2.13 Ethnic Groups at Ward Level 26 5.6 Test Results 57 2.14 Measuring Ethnic Diversity in Redbridge 27 2.15 Ethnic Population Projections 28 6. Housing 61 2.16 Religion and Faith Groups 28 6.1 Introduction 62 2.17 Redbridge Faith Forum 30 6.2 Redbridge Housing Stock and Tenure 62 2.18 Asylum Seekers in Redbridge 30 6.3 Redbridge Wards Household Tenure 63 2.19 Implications of Demographic Changes 31 6.4 House Prices and Affordability 63 6.5 Household Size and Occupancy 66 3. Indices of Multiple Deprivation 2004 32 6.6 Homelessness 66 3.1 Introduction 33 6.7 Housing-Led Development and Regeneration 66 3.2 Redbridge Deprivation Analysis 34 6.8 Sub-Regional Housing Developments 67 3.3 IMD For Small Areas In Redbridge 36 7. Culture, Sport and Community Learning 68 7.1 Introduction 69 4. Economy and Labour Market 39 7.2 Cultural Strategy 69 4.1 Introduction 40 7.3 Leisure Services 70 4.2 Macro-Economic Performance 40 7.4 Community Learning and Libraries 71 4.2.1 Economic Scale 40 7.5 Adult Education 71 4.2.2 Productivity 41 7.6 Youth and Community Involvement 72 4.2.3 Economic Change 42 7.7 Parks and Open Spaces 73 4 8. Health and Social Care 74 9.4.9 Racist Incidents 95 8.1 Introduction 75 9.4.10 Homophobic Crime 96 8.2 Life Expectancy 75 9.4.11 Crime against People with a Learning Disability 96 8.3 Infant Mortality 76 9.5 Feeling Safe in Redbridge and Fear of Crime Consultation 96 8.4 Standardised Mortality Ratio for all Causes for Persons under 75 76 10. Environment 98 8.5 The Death Rate by Cause for Persons under 75 77 10.1 Introduction 99 8.6 Redbridge PCT Annual Public Health Report 2005/06 77 10.2 Pollution 99 8.7 Community Care 78 10.2.1 Litter 99 8.8 Demand for Adult Social Care 78 10.2.2 Recycling 100 8.9 People in Redbridge with a Limiting Long-Term Illness 79 10.3 Air Quality 102 8.10 Demand for Adult Social Services by Ethnicity 79 10.4 Energy 103 8.11 Mental Health 80 10.5 Transportation 103 8.12 Children’s Trust 80 10.6 Climate Change 104 8.12.1 Children’s Trust – Neglect and Abuse 80 10.7 Biodiversity 104 8.12.2 Local Safeguarding Children Board 81 10.8 Important Sites for Biodiversity Conservation 105 8.12.3 Preventative Measures – Looked After Children 81 11. Way Forward 106 8.12.4 Looked After Children in a Safe Environment 81 8.12.5 Looked After Children Making a Positive Glossary of Terms 108 Contribution 82 8.12.6 Children and Young People with Learning Sources and References 109 Difficulties and/or Disabilities Making a Positive Contribution 82 Acknowledgements 110 9. Community Safety 84 9.1 Introduction 85 Appendices 9.2 Redbridge Safer Communities Partnership 85 9.3 Overall Levels of Offending 86 Appendix 2A Ethnic Group (Table KS06P 2001 Census) 111 9.4 Analysis by Crime Type 87 Appendix 2B GLA 2005 Round Interim Ethnic Group 9.4.1 Violent Crime 87 Projections 112 9.4.2 Anti-Social Behaviour 89 Appendix 2C Ethnic Group by Religion (Table S104 2001 Census) 113 9.4.3 Drugs and Alcohol 89 Appendix 2D Breakdown of Asylum Statistics in London 9.4.4 Domestic Burglary 91 Boroughs 114 9.4.5 Motor Vehicle Crime 92 Appendix 3A Explanation of Seven Domains of Indices of 9.4.6 Street Crime 93 Deprivation 116 9.4.7 Retail Crime 94 9.4.8 Hate Crime 94 5 Appendix 3B Demographic Profile of Most Deprived Super Output Areas in Redbridge 118 Appendix 5A 2005 GCSE Results for all Greater London Boroughs 119 Appendix 6A Provision For Additional ‘Homes’ Targets, 1997-2016 120 Appendix 6B Household Composition (Table KS20P 2001 Census) 121 Appendix 9A Hotspot Map Illustrating Night-time Data from FLARE 122 Appendix 9B Hotspot Map Illustrating Daytime Data from FLARE 123 Appendix 9C Domestic Burglaries (April 2003 – March 2005) 124 Appendix 9D Street Crime at Night (19:00 – 06:59) 125 Appendix 9E Street Crime in the Daytime (07:00 – 18:59) 126 Appendix 9F Wards where Fear of Crime is Prevalent 127 Appendix 11A Sustainable Development Scorecard for Redbridge 128 6 Index of Tables, Figures and Maps Fig 2.12 Population by Religion 29 Fig 2.13 Ethnicity and Religion in Redbridge, 2001 Census 29 Chapter 2 Demographic Analysis and Implications Table 2.15 Ward Population by Religion in Redbridge 30 Fig 2.1 Population Trend in Redbridge (1999 -2021) 16 Chapter 3 Indices of Deprivation 2004 Fig 2.2 Population Projections for Redbridge (2005-2020) 16 Table 2.1 Population Change in Redbridge Wards (1991-2011) 17 Table 3.1 London East Summary Measure of IMD 2004 34 Fig 2.3 Changes in Ward Population for Redbridge (1991–2001) Table 3.2 Average IMD Score at Ward Level 34 18 Table 3.3 Comparing LSOA in the 20% Most Deprived in England Fig 2.4 Projected Changes in Ward Population for Redbridge in 2004 and 2007 35 (2001-2011) 18 Table 3.4 Redbridge LSOA’s in the Most/Least deprived Table 2.2 Change in Population, mid-2005–mid-2006 18 20% in English 36 Table 2.3 Population Density in Redbridge Wards 19 Table 3.5 Number of LSOA’s in the most deprived 20% Fig 2.5 Population Pyramid for Redbridge 19 under all the Domain 37 Fig 2.6 Comparison of Age Structure, 1991 & 2001 Census 20 Table 3.6 Number of LSOA’s in the least deprived 20% Table 2.4 Population Changes in Specific Age Groups (1991-2011) under all the Domain 37 20 Table 2.5 Proportion of Population of Working Age (2001) London East 20 Chapter 4 Economy and Labour Market Table 2.6 Proportion of Population in Specific Age Brackets, Census 2001 21 Table 4.1 Economic Scale 40 Table 2.7 Components of Change, mid-2001 - mid–2006 22 Table 4.2 Productivity 41 Fig 2.7 Live Births for Redbridge Wards, 2004 22 Table 4.3 Economic Change 41 Table 2.8 Internal Migration for London East 23 Table 4.4 Economic Activity 42 Fig 2.8 Net Migration, mid-2006 23 Fig 4.1 Economic Activity Rate (March 1999 - Dec 2005) 43 Table 2.9 Migration (Table KS24FN 2001 Census) 24 Fig 4.2 Unemployment Rates (March 1999 - Dec 2005) 43 Table 2.10 Top ten Boroughs with large share of Black & Fig 4.3 Inactivity Rate (March 1999 - Dec 2005) 43 Minority Ethnic Groups (BME) (Table KS06 2001 Census) Table 4.5 Occupational Profiles 24 (Standard Occupational Classification 2000) 44 Table 2.11 Ethnic Group Comparison with London (Table KS06 Table 4.6 Economic Activity by Ward 44 2001 Census) 25 Fig 4.4 Qualifications of the Working Age Population 45 Fig 2.9 Ethnic Breakdown in Redbridge (1991) 25 Fig 4.5 Percentage with Qualifications Classified as NVQ 4 Fig 2.10 Ethnic Breakdown in Redbridge (2001) 25 Equivalent and Above 45 Table 2.12 Comparing Diversity, 1991 & 2001 Census 27 Fig 4.6 Areas of Employment for Redbridge Residents (2001) 46 Table 2.13 Top 15 Ethnically Diverse Wards in London 28 Fig 4.7 Areas of Residence for People who Work in Redbridge Fig 2.11 Redbridge Ethnic Population Projections (2001-2026) 28 (2001) 46 Table 2.14 Comparison of Population by Religion 29 Fig 4.8 Employment by Industrial Sector in Redbridge 47 7 Fig 4.9 Number of VAT Registered Businesses in Redbridge Chapter 6 Housing (2004) 48 Table 4.7 Registrations, Deregistrations and Stock (2004) 48 Fig 6.1 Tenure in Redbridge 62 Fig 4.10 Redbridge Company Sizes (2005) 48 Table 6.1 Tenure of Borough Housing Stock (Census 2001) 62 Table 6.2 Redbridge Wards Household Tenure 63 Chapter 5 Education: Children and Young People Table 6.3 Property Prices (April–June 2006) 64 Fig 6.2 Source of Demands for Additional Affordable Table 5.1 Early Years and Childcare 50 Housing in the Borough 64 Table 5.2 Number of Pupils in Redbridge Schools 51 Table 6.4 House Price to Income Ratio London Boroughs 65 Fig 5.1 Number of Pupils in Redbridge Schools (2002-2006)