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2 Hazard Identification & Risk Assessment SECTION 2: HAZARD IDENTIFICATION & RISK ASSESSMENT 2 Hazard Identification & Risk Assessment Contents 2 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION & RISK ASSESSMENT .................................................................................... 1 2.1 Overview ....................................................................................................................................... 2 2.2 Hazard Identification ..................................................................................................................... 3 2.3 Risk Assessment Methodology and Assumptions ......................................................................... 8 2.4 Asset Inventory ........................................................................................................................... 12 2.4.1 Building Exposure ................................................................................................................ 12 2.4.2 Critical Facilities and Infrastructure Exposure .................................................................... 13 2.5 Hazard Profiles, Analysis, and Vulnerability ................................................................................ 14 2.5.1 Flood ................................................................................................................................... 14 2.5.2 Tropical Cyclones ................................................................................................................ 40 2.5.3 Severe Storms and Tornadoes ............................................................................................ 58 2.5.4 Wildfire ................................................................................................................................ 75 2.5.5 Coastal Erosion .................................................................................................................... 88 2.5.6 Drought ............................................................................................................................... 95 2.5.7 Extreme Heat .................................................................................................................... 101 2.5.8 Sea Level Rise and other Climate Change Characteristics ................................................ 107 2.5.9 Sink Holes .......................................................................................................................... 118 2.5.10 Winter Storms and Freeze ................................................................................................ 124 2.5.11 Earthquake ........................................................................................................................ 130 2.5.12 Tsunami ............................................................................................................................. 138 2.5.13 Major Transportation Incidents ........................................................................................ 142 2.5.14 Pandemic Outbreak .......................................................................................................... 151 2.5.15 Hazardous Materials ......................................................................................................... 160 2.5.16 Coastal Oil Spills ................................................................................................................ 167 2.5.17 Nuclear Power Plant ......................................................................................................... 172 2.5.18 Terrorism ........................................................................................................................... 178 2.5.19 Mass Migration Incident ................................................................................................... 184 2.5.20 Civil Disturbance ............................................................................................................... 188 2.5.21 Critical Infrastructure Disruption ...................................................................................... 194 2.5.22 Special Events .................................................................................................................... 198 2.5.23 Red Tide / Algae Bloom ..................................................................................................... 201 2.6 Conclusions on Hazard Risk ....................................................................................................... 207 2.7 References ................................................................................................................................ 208 Collier County, Florida 2020 Local Mitigation Strategy 1 SECTION 2: HAZARD IDENTIFICATION & RISK ASSESSMENT Requirement §201.6(c)(2): [The plan shall include] A risk assessment that provides the factual basis for activities proposed in the strategy to reduce losses from identified hazards. Local risk assessments must provide sufficient information to enable the jurisdiction to identify and prioritize appropriate mitigation actions to reduce losses from identified hazards. Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(i): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the type…of all natural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction. Requirement §201.6(c)(2)(i): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the…location and extent of all natural hazards that can affect the jurisdiction. The plan shall include information on previous occurrences of hazard events and on the probability of future hazard events. 44 CFR Subsection D §201.6(c)(2)(ii): [The risk assessment shall include a] description of the jurisdiction’s vulnerability to the hazards described in paragraph (c)(2)(i) of this section. This description shall include an overall summary of each hazard and its impact on the community. Plans approved after October 1, 2008 must also address NFIP insured structures that have been repetitively damaged by floods. The plan should describe vulnerability in terms of: A) The types and numbers of existing and future buildings, infrastructure, and critical facilities located in the identified hazard areas; (B): An estimate of the potential dollar losses to vulnerable structures identified in paragraph (c)(2)(ii)(A) of this section and a description of the methodology used to prepare the estimate; and (C): Providing a general description of land uses and development trends within the community so that mitigation options can be considered in future land use decisions. 2.1 OVERVIEW This section describes the Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment process for the development of the Collier County Local Mitigation Strategy. It describes how the County met the following requirements from the 10-step planning process: Planning Step 4: Assess the Hazard Planning Step 5: Assess the Problem As defined by FEMA, risk is a combination of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. “It is the impact that a hazard would have on people, services, facilities, and structures in a community and refers to the likelihood of a hazard event resulting in an adverse condition that causes injury or damage.” This hazard risk assessment covers all of Collier County, including the unincorporated County and all incorporated jurisdictions participating in this plan. The risk assessment process identifies and profiles relevant hazards and assesses the exposure of lives, property, and infrastructure to these hazards. The process allows for a better understanding of the potential risk to natural hazards in the county and provides a framework for developing and prioritizing mitigation actions to reduce risk from future hazard events. This risk assessment followed the methodology described in the FEMA publication Understanding Your Risks—Identifying Hazards and Estimating Losses (FEMA 386-2, 2002), which breaks the assessment down to a four-step process: 1. Identify 2. Profile 3. Inventory 4. Estimate Hazards Hazard Events Assets Losses Data collected through this process has been incorporated into the following sections of this plan: Collier County, Florida 2020 Local Mitigation Strategy 2 SECTION 2: HAZARD IDENTIFICATION & RISK ASSESSMENT Section 2.2: Hazard Identification identifies the natural and human-caused hazards that threaten the planning area. Section 2.3: Risk Assessment Methodology and Assumptions Section 2.4: Asset Inventory details the population, buildings, and critical facilities at risk within the planning area. Section 2.5: Hazard Profiles, Analysis, and Vulnerability discusses the threat to the planning area, describes previous occurrences of hazard events and the likelihood of future occurrences, and assesses the planning area’s exposure to each hazard profiled; considering assets at risk, critical facilities, and future development trends. Section 2.6: Conclusions on Hazard Risk summarizes the results of the Priority Risk Index and defines each hazard as a Low, Medium, or High-Risk hazard. 2.2 HAZARD IDENTIFICATION To identify hazards relevant to the planning area, the LMS working group began with a review of the list of hazards identified in the 2018 State Hazard Mitigation Plan and the 2015 Collier County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) as summarized in Table 2.1. The LMS working group used these lists to identify a full range of hazards for potential inclusion in this plan update and to ensure consistency across these planning efforts. All hazards listed below were evaluated for inclusion in this plan update. Table 2.1 – Full Range of Hazards Evaluated Included
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