Annual Economic and Financial Review
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Annual Economic and Financial Review 2014 E A S T E R N C A R I B B E A N C E N T R A L B A N K ADDRESS Headquarters: P O Box 89 Basseterre St Kitts and Nevis West Indies Cable: CENTRAL BANK, ST KITTS Telephone: (869) 465-2537 Facsimile: (869) 465-5615 Email: [email protected] Website: www.eccb-centralbank.org The ECCB welcomes your questions and comments on this publication. C O N T E N T S ECONOMIC REVIEW: International Economic Developments……………………………………………….1 Domestic Economic Developments ............................................................................... 8 Country Performances: Anguilla ............................................................................................................ 27 Antigua and Barbuda ........................................................................................ 37 Dominica ........................................................................................................... 48 Grenada ............................................................................................................. 58 Montserrat ......................................................................................................... 69 St Kitts and Nevis ............................................................................................. 80 Saint Lucia ........................................................................................................ 93 St Vincent and the Grenadines ....................................................................... 106 NOTES ON STATISTICAL TABLES…………………………………………………….118 STATISTICAL TABLES INDEX ………………………………………………………...119 STATISTICAL TABLES ...................................................................................................... 121 SPEECH BY GOVERNOR OF THE ECCB………………………………………………169 Annual Economic and Financial Review 2014 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS INTERNATIONAL E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T S Overview subdued. Monetary policy was accommodative during the year to facilitate Economic developments in 2014 were for the growth and support inflation targets. most part positive, an indication that global output may have stabilized. According to the Global output is expected to increase further International Monetary Fund’s World in 2015, albeit at an uneven pace. Growth Economic Outlook (January 2015), the world will be led by expansions in the advanced economy grew by 3.3 per cent in 2014, the economies, particularly the USA, while same level as in 2013. Growth was driven emerging markets will experience a by developments in the advanced economies, slowdown in activity. Downside risks to namely the USA and the UK as emerging these projections include geopolitical tensions markets recorded lower than anticipated in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, growth. The oil price shock which took which may affect trade flows; deflation in the place in mid 2014 had a positive impact on Euro area and the uncertainty of the impact consumer spending and business investment of policy measures implemented to generate in the advanced economies, contributing to sustained positive growth; sudden movements an uptick in economic activity. Meanwhile, in oil and other commodity prices; and less the fall in oil prices worsened the external than anticipated growth in advanced vulnerabilities of oil exporting emerging economies due to domestic developments. market economies as their balance of payments surpluses shrank and fiscal Macro-economic Developments in the balances took a hit. Moreover, growth in Major Economies China, the largest emerging market economy Real GDP and Labour Market slowed primarily due to developments in the Developments real estate sector and lower industrial Economic output in the USA is estimated to production. Labour market conditions have increased by 2.4 per cent in 2014, improved overall, concomitant with positive compared with growth of 2.2 per cent in growth while inflationary pressures were 2013. The outturn was attributable to 1 Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Annual Economic and Financial Review 2014 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS positive contributions from personal lowest rate since 2008. The civilian labour consumption expenditures (PCE), net participation rate averaged 62.9 per cent, exports, non-residential and residential fixed compared with 63.3 per cent in 2013. investments, private inventory investment Meanwhile, despite the reduction in and state and local government spending. unemployment, wage growth was at a tepid Those increases were partly offset by the 1.7 per cent, significantly below the negative contribution from federal 3.5 per cent required to push the inflation government spending. On a quarterly basis rate at or above the Federal Reserve’s target the economy contracted by 2.1 per cent in of 2.0 per cent. the first quarter of 2014, due to adverse weather, which disrupted industrial The UK economy grew by 2.6 per cent in production, construction, shipments, and 2014, relative to growth of 1.7 per cent in house and auto sales. The first quarter 2013, the fastest annual growth rate in seven contraction was the worst performance of the years. The acceleration in the rate of growth economy since the first quarter of 2009. was primarily driven by a 3.0 per cent However, in the remaining three quarters, increase in the services sector, which the economy gained traction, growing by accounted for more than three quarters of 4.6 per cent, 5.0 per cent and 2.2 per cent in output. Other positive contributions came the second, third and fourth quarters, from construction (7.3 per cent) and respectively. Consumer spending, which manufacturing (2.7 per cent) while value accounted for over 70.0 per cent of GDP, added in the mining and quarrying sector accelerated during the year buoyed by declined by 0.2 per cent. The annual savings from cheaper gasoline prices. unemployment rate fell to 6.3 per cent from However, the strengthening of the dollar 7.8 per cent in 2013, partly due to an against a basket of currencies spurred an increase in self-employment. However, the uptick in imports and constrained exports. rate of employment growth and the speed at Concomitant with the growing economy, US which unemployment fell slowed in the labour market conditions improved in 2014. second half of the year. The annual unemployment rate declined to 6.2 per cent from 7.4 per cent in 2013, the In 2014 real GDP rose by 0.9 per cent in the 2 Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Annual Economic and Financial Review 2014 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Euro area, in contrast to a contraction of sector hiring. Due to population aging, the 0.5 per cent in 2013. Positive value added labour market participation rate fell by was recorded in household consumption 0.6 percentage points to 65.7 per cent, the expenditure, gross fixed capital formation lowest rate since 2000. and net exports, tempered by negative contribution from inventories. The outturn The economy of China expanded by in the Euro area was attributable to 7.4 per cent in 2014, slightly below the developments in the four largest economies. official target of 7.5 per cent and the Output expanded in Germany, France and 7.7 per cent recorded in 2013. On a Spain while that of Italy contracted. The quarterly basis, GDP grew by 7.3 per cent in Euro area seasonally-adjusted unemployment the fourth quarter of 2014, slightly better rate stood at 11.3 per cent in December 2014 than expectations. The annual outturn was from 11.8 per cent in January 2014 as the lowest rate of growth since 1990. The economic conditions improved slightly. The expansion was driven by greater value added lowest rates of unemployment were recorded from the agricultural sector and industrial for Austria (4.9 per cent) and Germany production, mainly mining and (5.0 per cent), while Greece recorded the manufacturing activity, as growth in fixed highest rate at 25.8 per cent. assets slowed. Consumption (51.2 per cent) and services (48.2 per cent), the major In Canada real GDP grew by 2.5 per cent in contributors to the overall economy in 2014, 2014 following growth of 2.0 per cent in increased by 3.0 percentage points and 2013. The outturn reflected increases in 1.3 percentage points, respectively. The household spending, business investment, urban unemployment rate stood at government investment and exports. On the 4.1 per cent at the end of December 2014. production side, the increase in value added emanated from all major industrial sectors Commodity and Consumer Prices except agriculture and forestry. In the 12 months to December, the unemployment Commodity prices declined in 2014 reflective rate fell by 0.5 percentage points to of lower prices for energy, metals and food 6.7 per cent mainly due to a rise in private largely associated with supply side 3 Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Annual Economic and Financial Review 2014 INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS developments. The decision by OPEC to to a reduction in inflationary pressures in the maintain its production level despite major economies. The Consumer Price increasing production by non OPEC Index (CPI) in the USA rose at a slower rate producers and a slowdown in the rate of of 0.8 per cent during 2014 compared with growth in China contributed to excess supply one of 1.5 per cent during 2013. Increases warranting a reduction in oil prices. The in the food, shelter and rent sub-indices were average price of West Texas Intermediate largely offset by a sharp decline in the (WTI) fell to US$93.3 per barrel in