August 27, 2017 3

Debate The referendum factor Clouds of uncertainty hover over ’s future

he decision by ’s work if the KRG believes it is already a little late and that it independence. Kurdistan Regional getting a better deal from the would have been easier to do “It’s Erbil’s way of showing Government (KRG) to Iraqi central government. two years ago,” Iddon said. , in any future negotia- James Snell call a referendum on “There is a 50% possibility The military climate seems tions, that it is negotiating for is a British journalist. the future of Kurd- that the referendum might be more conducive to independ- independence on behalf of the istan has alarmed deferred if the Kurdish condi- ence. The immediate threat to will of the Kurdish people, who Tthe rest of the country and the tions are met or at least under Kurdish areas from the Islamic are expected to vote overwhelm- region. the regional and international State (ISIS) seems to be waning ingly in favour of independ- Despite calls from Iraq’s pressure both Erbil and Baghdad and much ISIS-held territory is ence,” said Iddon. “A successful central government, its neigh- get to a deal,” said Hawez. being retaken by Iraqi forces. referendum will not necessarily bours and the United States, to Paul Iddon, a journalist in “Now ISIS is largely defeated mean immediate independence delay the vote, KRG President Erbil, said this referendum was in Iraq. The are trying to for Kurdistan, but rather a major insists it will go different from others. “Unlike reassure their American and first step in that direction.” as scheduled on September 25. the last two proposed referen- Western allies that military Hawez noted the lack of appeal The oil industry has a notable dums in Kurdistan, in 2014 and coordination will remain intact. of the prosaic economic argu- presence in Erbil and Western October 2016, this referendum Barzani himself has said the ments, which suggest using the investors have travelled en has a precise date,” he said. Kurdish will con- referendum for leverage alone. masse to Kurdistan, seeing Kurd- That date could prove difficult tinue to cooperate with the Iraqi “Kurds don’t just want a better ish areas as more stable than the for Kurdistan’s president, Army against common threats,” share in the Iraqi budget but rest of Iraq. It remains unclear, however. “[Barzani] has Iddon said. they also want more autonomy however, if Kurdistan would lamented the fact that the The continued cooperation and more power to further maintain its stability amid referendum did not take place apes what might happen if Iraqi consolidate their self-rule,” he hostile neighbours. earlier, saying Kurdistan is Kurdistan votes for said. If the referendum goes ahead, Once the referendum is given a Iraqi Kurds are expected to vote go-ahead, its course may be for independence. dictated by more than political Abdulla Hawez, a researcher at expediency. Iddon said it “is an King’s College London who important step for Kurdistan in analyses Kurdish politics, said its push for independence.” that, while “the referendum is Potential difficulties of this facing unprecedented opposi- course of action are clear. What tion and hurdles within Kurdis- began as canny political tan, I think the likely result if the manoeuvring may end up referendum is held would be fragmenting Iraq. around 70% ‘yes’ and the rest Iraqi Kurdistan’s leaders may either vote ‘no’ or refrain from be playing a political game but voting.” the dream of independence is A bigger issue lurks in the seriously held. background, he said. “Economic Iraqi national politicians are crises and political division have not helping. “The leaders in left many citizens hopeless of Baghdad are busy with their own any vote, be it elections or problems and all the parties try referendum,” Hawez said. This to use the Kurdish referendum means that turnout, if low, could in their own benefit by adopting have a significant effect on the a more aggressive tone against world’s perception of the Kurdistan,” said Hawez. referendum. Short-term thinking on many If the referendum The world is already worried. sides could lead to a potentially goes ahead, Iraqi The Americans sent Defence hazardous situation. The Secretary James Mattis to try to referendum could be the making Kurds will likely talk Barzani out of it. The United of Kurdish nationhood and the vote for States may be hoping that the effective end of the Iraqi state, KRG can be induced to defer the Uncertain prospects. Kurds gather in support of a referendum on still engaged in a necessary and independence. referendum but this will only independence in Kirkuk, on August 16. (Reuters) difficult fight against ISIS. Remembering Nawshirwan Mustafa on the eve of Kurdish referendum

s the date for an its founder, Nawshirwan Mustafa, Iraq,” he said. “It is better to be in Mustafa in the mountains along- independence refer- who died in May at the age of 73. Baghdad than in — side the PUK leader . endum approaches, “In Kurdistan, the head of a party or in a cave.” Under a furry hat, Mustafa has a Gareth Smyth the Kurdistan Demo- is usually there for life and when It was soon evident that the new book under one arm and a Kalash- is a regular contributor to cratic Party (KDP) is he goes there’s a problem,” Salam state was not providing security, nikov over the other. The Arab Weekly. trying to bolster the Abdulrahman, head of political much less basic services. When Perhaps Mustafa’s military He was chief correspondent vote’s legitimacy by science at Sulaymaniyah’s Univer- Mustafa and I ate mazgouf in an reputation helped shield Goran in Iran for the Financial revivingA Iraqi Kurdistan’s dormant sity of Human Development, said. empty Baghdad restaurant, his from intimidation by the KDP or Times in 2003-07. parliament, mainly through an “After Nawshirwan’s death, some bodyguards hovered at the door PUK. “Many PUK commanders agreement with the second estab- thought Goran would have a similar and the waiter carried an Uzi. said they’d protect Nawshirwan, lished party, the Patriotic Union of fate but they surprised many by Mustafa was a Kurdish national- even though they didn’t show their Kurdistan (PUK). abiding by their constitution, elect- ist and strongly backed federalism weapons,” said Abdulrahman. Such decisions once were firmly ing a new leader, Omar Said Ali, but he was unhappy with many “Goran declared itself a civil move- with the KDP and PUK but Goran and broadcasting the results live.” aspects of the Kurdish self-rule ment but Nawshirwan’s military (Movement for Change) has proved I met with Mustafa many times endorsed in the Iraqi Constitution background has helped it survive.” to be an effective opposition since it from 2003-05. His garden in of 2005. He was irked with nepo- The PUK struggled after Talabani was founded in 2009, winning 24 of Sulaymaniyah in northern Iraq tism and valued press freedoms. suffered a stroke in 2012. “They the Kurdish parliament’s 111 seats was fragrant with roses but he had Despite his military background, he haven’t elected a new secretary- in 2013. Goran argues a referendum spent more time as a peshmerga stressed the importance of legality general and no-one knows who’s needs parliamentary approval and commander than as a gardener. over force. From its launch, Goran in charge,” said Abdulrahman. “Of- should not be called by the presi- One of five founders of the PUK in enthused the young. ficials say different things.” dent, KDP leader Masoud Barzani, Damascus in 1975, he sent its first “People talk of him as someone A cooperation agreement signed who is two years past the expira- peshmerga into Iraq; during the who gave them courage not to stay in May 2016 between Mustafa tion of his term. Parliament has 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, he led Kurd- silent,” said Abdulrahman. “He and an incapacitated Talabani fed not met since 2015 when the KDP ish attacks on Iraqi forces alongside made people aware of their rights expectations that Goran and the Mustafa was a blocked the parliamentary speaker Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards and responsibilities. He became PUK might unite. This is unlikely, from regional capital Erbil. Corps in Kirkuk and near Sulay- known for his humanism and although many in the PUK share Kurdish nationalist While many Kurds aspire to maniyah. Later, he organised PUK efforts against corruption. Naw- Goran’s criticisms of the referen- but he was unhappy independence, they suspect the fighters in the 1991 uprising against shirwan set up good mechanisms dum. referendum is a ploy to divert at- Saddam Hussein. for Goran and passed on leadership Mustafa was buried on the with many aspects tention from mismanagement by In 2003, after the US-led inva- responsibilities to others. Around a Zargata Hill in Sulaymaniyah near the Kurdish Regional Government sion toppled Saddam, Mustafa went year ago, when he came back from both his rose garden and Goran of the Kurdish (KRG) as it struggles to pay govern- to Baghdad to work for a viable London after [cancer] treatment headquarters. “Ever since he self-rule endorsed ment employees after persistent Iraqi state — and by coincidence he said: ‘This was a test for you, to founded this movement you hear quarrels with the central govern- lodged in a former moukhabarat manage without me, and you suc- young people talking about how in the Iraqi ment in Baghdad. (secret police) house where he’d ceeded’.” to improve and organise life,” said Constitution of Goran’s vitality in arguing the stayed during autonomy talks with A photography shop near the Su- Abdulrahman. “People say that referendum September 25 would Saddam in 1984. “The PUK wants to laymaniyah bazaar used to display although Nawshirwan is not with 2005. be illegitimate is a testament to work with secular forces for a new an old black-and-white print of us anymore, his message lives on.”