Asia-Pacific Journal of Marine Science&Education

ISSN 2221-9935 (Print) ISSN2306-8000 (Online)

ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE&EDUCATION

VOLUME 4, No.2, 2014

Adm. Nevelskoy Maritime State University Vladivostok, Russia

Asia-Pacific Journal of Marine Science&Education

Published semiannually by Adm. Nevelskoy Maritime State University

ADVISORY BOARD

Dr. Rouben Azizian, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Hawaii, Honolulu, USA Dr. James Boutilier, Maritime Forces Pacific HQ, Victoria, BC, Canada Dr. Oleg A. Bukin, MSUN, Vladivostok, Russia Dr. Sang Goog Cho, MSUN, Vladivostok, Russia Dr. Andrey I. Fisenko, Economics&Management in Transport, MSUN, Russia Adm.(Ret.)Victor D. Fyodorov, Deputy Director (Southern Branch), P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Gelendjik, Russia Adm.(Ret.) Gennady A. Khvatov, MSUN, Vladivostok, Russia Dr. Dovchin Myagmar, Institute for Geopolitical Studies, Ulan Bator, Mongolia Dr. Boris V. Preobrazhensky, Pacific Inst.of Geography, Russian Academy Sciences Dr. Leonid P. Reshetnikov, Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, Moscow, Russia Dr. Valentin P. Sinetsky, Information Center, Federal Maritime Board, Moscow, Russia Dr. Naoyuki Takagi, Tokyo University of Marine Science&Technology, Tokyo, Japan Dr. Alexander N. Vylegzhanin, MGIMO University, Moscow, Russia

EDITORIAL BOARD Executive Editor Nikolai I. Pereslavtsev

Editors Dr. Vladimir M. Lobastov, Dr. Vladimir A. Lazarev, Dr. Sergey V. Sevastianov, Dr. Sergey M. Smirnov, Dr. Vladimir F. Verevkin, Dr. Natalia G. Levchenko, Dr. Dmitry S. Kopyev. Dr. Alexey Yu. Strelkov, Rabia M. Newton, Pavel B. Kirichenko, Anastasia O. Barannikova.

Annual subscription rate: Russia 850.00 RUR, outside Russia 30.00 USD (including air mail). The opinions expressed by authors do not necessarily reflect those of Adm. Nevelskoy Maritime State University or the Editors of Asia-Pacific Journal Of Marine Science&Education. Reproduction of the contents without permission is forbidden. The full text of publications is available in Internet at http://marinejournal.msun.ru

Adm. Nevelskoy Maritime State University 50a Verhneportovaya st., Vladivostok, Russia, 690059 E-mail: [email protected], [email protected] Phone/Fax: +7(423)230-1275

Asia-Pacific Journal of Marine Science & Education

CONTENTS

2014 VOLUME 4, NO.2

Alexander A.Dyda, Dmitry A.Oskin, Ludmila V.Krasiuk, Elena B.Osokina Symbolic Synthesis of Control Laws and its Applications ……………...... 7.. Evgeniya N. Egorova Oil spills on sea areas: minimization of economic damage……………………………...19. Roman V.Kolesnik Hydrographic factor of the results of the Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905).…………..27. Konstantin G.Krechetnikov The influence of individual creativity on the success of professional activities in the maritime field…………………………………………………………………………………………35 Natalia G.Levchenko Simulation of Information Systems for Transport and Logistics Processes Management Using Fuzzy Neural Network Technologies……………………………………………………...43 Elena B.Osokina, Alexander A.Dyda Robust stability of ship course control system……………………………………………55 Nikolai I.Pereslavtsev Korean-Japanese discord concerning the Liancourt islands……………………...... 65. Sergey A. Ponomarev Our names for our islands…………………………………………………………………75 Victor A.Sedov, Nelly A.Sedova Modelling collision avoidance actions in closest approach zones by means of neural networks ………………………………………………………………………………………………83. Boris I.Tkachenko The value of the economic potential of the South Kurile sub-region for the national security of Russia………………………………………………………………………………… 91 Pavel V. Cherkashin Republic of Korea’s plans about the Arctic exploitation and perspectives of Russian-Korean cooperation in the region ……………………………..………………………… …… .. 103.

Article abstracts in Russian………………………………………………………………110

CONTRIBUTORS

Alexander A. Dyda – DSc. (technical sciences), since 2003, Full Professor of Department of Automatic & Information Systems and head of the laboratory of Nonlinear & Intelligent Control Systems, Admiral Nevelskoy Maritime State University. Main fields of scientific interests: technical cybernetics, informatics, mathematics. Author of research works concerning adaptive and neural network control and neural network control systems for complex dynamical objects and underwater robots. Phone: +7 924 2428420, e-mail: [email protected] Dmitry A. Oskin - Ph.D. since 2004, Associate Professor of Department of Automatic & Information Systems and senior researcher of the laboratory of Nonlinear & Intelligent Control Systems, Admiral Nevelskoy Maritime State University. Phone: +7-4232-515219 Ludmila.V.Krasiuk – associate professor of Department of Information control systems, Far Eastern Federal University. Phone: +7-9025281961. Elena. B. Osokina - principal lecturer, Department of electronics and microprocessors, Admiral Nevelskoy Maritime State University, Verkhneportovaya str. 50A, Vladivostok, Russia 690059, Phone: +7-924-5250115

Evgeniya N. Egorova – Ph.D., Economic Sciences, Associate professor, Economics and Finance Department, Admiral Nevelskoy Maritime State University. The main area of research: development of economic instruments of environmental protection from oil spills in marine transportation. E-mail: [email protected]

Roman V.Kolesnik – associate professor, Department of Navigation, Admiral Nevelskoy Maritime State University. Main research interests: history, geography, issues of navigation. Author of more than 10 publications on these topics. E-mail: [email protected]

Konstantin G. Krechetnikov – Ph.D., Psychology, Professor of School of business and public administration, Far Eastern Federal University (FEFU). Author of more than 360 published works in the fields of personal creativity, promotion of personnel capacities, projecting of information educational technologies. E-mail: [email protected]

Natalia G. Levchenko – PhD, Head, Network section, IT Department Admiral Nevelskoy Maritime State University. Author of more than 20 publications in the fields of information systems technology in maritime industry, neural network&fuzzy logic technology, mathematical modeling, AI and decision support systems. E-mail: [email protected]

СONTRIBUTORS

Nikolai I. Pereslavtsev – researcher, head of information and analysis bureau, Center for Maritime International Studies, Admiral Nevelskoy Maritime State University. Main areas of research: situation on Korean Peninsula and neighboring countries, the influence of this factor on Russia’s plans and interests, problems of international maritime cooperation and interaction in the Far East. E-mail: [email protected]

Sergey A. Ponomarev – Senior Research Fellow, Center for Maritime International Studies, Adm. Nevelskoy Maritime State University. A former Representative of Sakhalin Provincial Legislative Body (1990 – 2008). Acting member of Russian Geographic Society. Author of several books, 40 research publications and more than 500 newspaper and magazine articles on Law, territorial disputes, information security, history of Russia and the Far East. Resides in Sakhalin Island. E-mail: [email protected].

Viktor A. Sedov - Candidate of Science (Physics and Mathematics), Associate Professor, Head of Electrical Engineering Theoretical Basics Department, Admiral Nevelskoy Maritime State University. Main areas of research – development of artificial intellect systems. Author of several publications on these topics. E-mail: [email protected] Nelly A.Sedova - Candidate of Science (Engineering), Associate Professor, research worker, Admiral Nevelskoy Maritime State University. Main areas of research – development of ship control systems based on artificial intellect. E-mail: [email protected]

Boris I. Tkachenko – Ph.D., Economics, Principal researcher of Scientific- educational Center for Maritime International Studies of Admiral G. I. Nevelskoy Maritime State University, Vladivostok. He has more than 420 scientific works, including 13 individual monographs in such areas of research as international relations, economy and organization of science and modern Russian political science. He is a member of Association de Comptabilite Nationale (France), Russian Geographical Society and Russian Association of International Studies. Phone: +7(423)2-301-275. E-mail: [email protected]

Cherkashin Pavel - researcher, Laboratory of Asia-Pacific International Institutions and Multilateral Cooperation, School of Regional and International Studies FEFU; Tel. 269-59-25, e-mail: [email protected]

SYMBOLIC SYNTHESIS OF CONTROL LAWS AND ITS APPLICATIONS

Alexander A. Dyda, Dmitry A. Oskin, Ludmila .V.Krasiuk, Elena B.Osokina

This paper is devoted to the problem of the design procedure automatization for nonlinear control systems on the basis of symbolic computations and such well-known technique as exact linearization via nonlinear feedback. Developed software realizes the synthesis of control laws in symbolic form that is convenient for further analysis, modeling, and practical implementation of the system. Examples of the software applications to induction motor, robot manipulator, and underwater vehicle are given and discussed.

Keywords: symbolic calculations, feedback linearization, robotics, control law synthesis, underwater vehicle.

Important features of large-scale systems are high dimension, nonlinearity, and often uncertainty. To overcome the difficulties of large-scale systems research, the decomposition methods and appropriate computer soft wear as effective tools are traditionally used. The notion “decomposition” can be considered, on one hand, as a procedure of splitting the large system into subsystems of lower dimensions. On other hand, decomposition can be desired result of control system design when subsystems dynamics are independent and demonstrate prescribed behavior. A number of modern methods which are used to solve the problem of control systems synthesis exploit an idea of linearization. Among them the exact linearization of the controlled object dynamics via nonlinear feedback seems to be one of the most popular techniques. This approach, comprehensively given by A.Isidori, H. Nijmeijer and A. van der Schaft and other researchers, last two decades was extended and applied to adaptive control, variable structure control etc [1]-[4]. The main advantages of the nonlinear feedback linearization (NFL) method consist in its strong formalization and possibility to make decomposion of large system, to decouple controlled subsystems and to provide them reference (as a rule, linear) transient dynamics. Unfortunately, when the dimensions of state, control, and output vectors are large, the control system designer faces huge difficulties associated with complicated computations. To deal with such systems, modern software for symbolic calculations can be applied. Moreover, as it will be demonstrated, the single procedure of the full system synthesis based on the NFL approach can be often implemented.

The aim of this paper is to develop the software for control law design and full control system modeling with usage of NFL method and symbolic computations. The paper is organized as follows. In Section II a necessary background on NFL method is given. Section III briefly describes main features of algorithms and program realization of symbolic synthesis according to the NFL method. In Section IV the mathematical models of such dynamical objects as induction motor, robot manipulator, and underwater vehicle are presented. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of approach to symbolic synthesis, developed software was applied to design the control systems for them. Results of computer synthesis are derived as symbolic expressions describing nonlinear control laws. Examples of system processes are shown. Section V contains discussion and final comments and touches possible directions of future development of the approach.

The method of nonlinear feedback linearization: brief background To begin with, we briefly review necessary concepts of feedback linearization, following [1]. The mathematical model of dynamical control object is supposed to be described by the equations x f (x) g(x)u , (1) y h(x) where T x (x1,...xn) ,

T u (u1,...um) ,

T y (y1,...ym) are the state, control, and output vectors, respectively. According to the method of feedback linearization [1], the control should be formed as follows u A 1(x)(w Г(x)) . (2) The decomposition matrix A(x)and vector Г(x)are calculated by formulas

L Lr1 1h (x) .. .. L Lr1 1h (x) g1 f 1 gm f 1 L Lr2 1h (x) .. .. L Lr2 1h (x) A(x) g1 f 2 gm f 2 , (3) ...... L Lrm 1h (x) .. .. L Lrm 1h (x) g1 f m gm f m

r1 Lf h1(x) Lr2 h (x) Г(x) f 2 ... , (4)

rm Lf hm (x)

T where r (r1,...rm) the relative degree vector, T w (w1,...wm) the new control input.

By the definition, the derivative of function hj (x) along vector f (x) is the following n hj (x) Lf hj (x) fi (x) . (5) i 1 xi

The feedback control (2) transforms a nonlinear system (1) into m decoupled chains of ri cascade-connected integrators and, as consequence, the input-output behavior of the system satisfies the linear equations

(ri ) yi wi . (6) Obviously, the choice of the new control in the form

w y (ri ) k e (ri 1) ... k e , (7) i di 1 i ri i

where yd (t) is the desirable trajectory of the system and error e(t) yd (t) y(t), provides asymptotically stable tracking.

If the equality r1 ... rm n takes place, the system is full-state linearizable, otherwise, it has unobservable subsystem with its own dynamics, or zero dynamics (for more details see [1], [2]). Computer Symbolic Design of Control Laws In the case when one needs to design the control system for the nonlinear dynamical object of relatively low dimension, the usage of the formulas (2)- (7) is rather simple. But with increasing of dimension which characterizes large-scale systems, number of inputs and outputs, the computational complexity soon arises. Meanwhile, for research purposes, it is symbolic form of control that is most valuable and preferable. Naturally, symbolic expressions of control laws are convenient for further analysis, modeling, and practical realization. Complicated work on deriving the control expressed in symbolic form and based, in particular, on the NFL method can be essentially facilitated by means of modern software systems such as Maple, MATEMATICA, MATLAB, MATHCAD etc. They have built-in functions for symbolic differentiation, vector and matrix operations, and many others. In this research the computer program for the NFL-based symbolic synthesis and modeling of nonlinear control system was developed in the environment

9 of Maple and MATLAB. Principal modules of the software are following: The description of variables (vectors of state, control and output);

The description of the desirable system trajectory yd (t) ; The input of dynamical object model in symbolic form; The deriving of expressions for function f (x) and matrix g(x) ; The determination of relative degree vector; The input of coefficients which determine desirable transients; The symbolic calculations of decomposition matrix A(x)and vector Г(x); The generation of symbolic expressions for control u and new control w ; The forming of full closed-loop control system model by substitution of generated control laws into object model; The input of control object parameters; Control system modeling.

The user of developed program just input a description of control object in symbolic form and necessary parameters which computer demands. The program, in its turn, generates control laws that provide (at least, partial [1]) decomposition and reference dynamics for subsystems. If one needs, the program simulates the designed control system and presents the processes in it.

Examples of symbolic control synthesis and System Modeling To demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach and developed software, consider the examples of symbolic control synthesis and simulations for three dynamical objects. These are induction motor, robot manipulator, and underwater vehicle. 8 The Induction motor The model of induction motor can be written as following equations [5]:  p LmI I p I U / , (8) T  I TL / J 

; T , where , are the rotor angular position and velocity ( a , b ) T I (ia,ib ) are the rotor flux and the stator current vectors; T U (ua ,ub ) the control input voltage; TL the load torque; Rr / Lr ,

Lm /( Lr ),

0 1 2 LmRr Rs 2 1 0 Lr L2 L m 3Lm p . s L r 2JLs

Rs , Rr the stator and rotor resistance; Lr ,Ls ,Lm the rotor, stator and mutual inductances; p the number of pole pairs. The output and desirable trajectory of the system are chosen as following

c1 sin(c2 vt) y T , yd . c3

The results of the computer-based symbolic control synthesis are obtained (given in the Maple format), particularly,

U1 2*Rr*(-x2*Lm^2*Rr*Fbi-x1*Lm^2*Rr*Fai-2*x2*Rr*Lm^3*x4-2*Rr*x2^2*Ls*Lr- 2*Rr*x1^2*Ls*Lr+x2*Lm*x4*Rs*Lr^2+Lm^3*x4*p*x5* x1*Lr+x1*Lm*x3*Rs*Lr^2- Lm^2*x4^2*Rr*Ls*Lr-Lm*x4*p*x5*x1*Lr^2*Ls+3*x2*Rr*Lm*x4*Ls*Lr+2*Rr*x2^2*Lm^2- Lm^3*x3*p*x5*x2*Lr-Lm^2*x3^2*Rr*Ls*Lr+3*x1*Rr*Lm*x3*Ls*Lr- 2*x1*Rr*Lm^3*x3+Lm*x3*p*x5*x2*Lr^2*Ls+2*Rr*x1^2*Lm^2+Lm^4*x4^2*Rr+Lm^4*x3^2*Rr)/L r^2/(-Ls*Lr+Lm^2);

1/6*(4*Rr*x1*w2*J*Lr^3*Ls- U2 4*Rr*x1*w2*J*Lr^2*Lm^2+6*Rr^2*x1^2*Lm*p*x4*Ls*Lr+6*Rr*x1^2*Lm*p^2*x3*x5*Lr^2*Ls- 6*Rr*x1^2*Lm^3*p^2*x3*x5*Lr+6*Rr*x1*Lm^2*p^2*x2^2*Lr*x5- 6*Rr^2*x1^2*Lm^2*p*Fbi+6*Rr*x1^3*Lm^2*p^2*Lr*x5+6*Rr*x1^2*Lm*p*x4*Rs*Lr^2+18*x2^2*p*Rr ^2*Lm*x4*Ls*Lr+3*x2*p*w1*Lr^3*Ls- 3*x2*p*w1*Lr^2*Lm^2+12*x2*p*Rr^2*x1^2*Lm^2+6*x2*p*Lm^4*x3^2*Rr^2+6*x2*p*Lm^4*x4^2*Rr ^2+6*x2^2*p*Rr*Lm*x4*Rs*Lr^2+6*x2^2*p^2*Rr*Lm*x3*x5*Lr^2*Ls- 6*x2^2*p^2*Rr*Lm^3*x3*x5*Lr-6*x2*p*Lm^2*x4^2*Rr^2*Ls*Lr-6*x2*p*Lm^2*x3^2*Rr^2*Ls*Lr- 6*x2^2*p*Rr^2*Lm^2*Fbi+12*x2*p*x1*Rr^2*Lm*x3*Ls*Lr-12*x2*p*Rr^2*x1^2*Ls*Lr- 12*x2*p*x1*Rr^2*Lm^3*x3-12*x2^3*p*Rr^2*Ls*Lr- 12*x2^2*p*Rr^2*Lm^3*x4+12*x2^3*p*Rr^2*Lm^2)/p/Lr^2/Lm/Rr/(x1^2+x2^2);

w1 (C2-x1^2-x2^2)*ki11+(-2*x1*(-Rr*x1-p*x5*x2*Lr+Rr*Lm*x3)/Lr-2*x2*(- Rr*x2+p*x5*x1*Lr+Rr*Lm*x4)/Lr)*ki12;

w2 (C1*sin(v*t)-x5)*ki21+(C1*cos(v*t)*v-1/2*(-3*Lm*p*x3*x2+3*Lm*p*x4*x1- 2*Tl*Lr)/J/Lr)*ki22-C1*sin(v*t)*v^2. In the given formulas the following variables are used:

x1 a, x2 b, x3 ia, x4 ib, x5 , x6

After deriving the symbolic expressions for controls, the program substitutes them into the object model and simulates the whole system. Some processes are shown on Fig.1. – Fig.3.

80 Reference 60 Output Error 40

0 rad/sec -20

-40

-60

-80 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 sec

Fig. 1. The desired reference and real angular velocities.

Refrence Output 0.2 Error

0.15

0.1 Wb

0.05

-0.05 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 sec Fig. 2. The rotor flux square modulus output and reference.

50 Ua Ub

0 V

-50

-100 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 sec Fig. 3. Control input voltage vector

As seen, synthesized control input is bounded and provides

asymptotically stable tracking of reference trajectory yd (t) .

9 The Robot Manipulator Next example of dynamical object to which we will apply the developed software is the robot manipulator UMS-2 [6]. Its dynamics are

12 described by the equation

D(q)q B(q,q)q G(q) U ,

where U R3 , q R6 are the control the generalized coordinates vectors. The matrices are determined as follows

2 I1 I2 I3 m3 (q3 l3 ) 0 0

D(q) 0 m2 m3 0 ,

0 0 m3 2m (q l )q 0 m (q l )q 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 B(q,q) 0 0 0

m3 (q3 l3 )q1 0 0

T G(q) 0 (m2 m3 )g 0 .

The order of the system is n=6, the number of inputs is m=3. The variables are redefined as x1 q1,x2 q1,x3 q2 ,x4 q2 ,x5 q3,x6 q3 : Undefined parameters are supposed to be constant. The outputs of the system are the coordinates of the manipulator grasp in task space h (x l )sin(x ), 1 5 3 1 h2 (x5 l3)cos(x1),

h3 x3

Desired trajectory yd (t) is chosen to provide the movement of the grasp along the spatial circle

yd1 Rsin( t),

yd 2 c1,

yd3 c2 Rcos( t) The program generates the following symbolic expressions for control:

2 2 w1m3x5 cosx1 (2m3x5l3 m3l3 )(w1 cosx1 w2 sin x1)

x5 l3 (w cosx 2x x w sin x )I 1 1 2 6 2 1 x5 l3 U (m2 m3 )(w3 G) 2 2 m3 (x2 w2 x5 cosx1 w2l3 cosx1 2x2 x5l3

x5 l3 2 2 2 2 x2l3 x2 x5 x5w1 sin x1 l3w1 sin x1)

x5 l3

(Rsin t (x5 l3 )sin x1 )k11 (R cos t x6 sin x1 (x l )x cosx )k R 2 sin t 5 3 2 1 12 w (c1 (x5 l3 )cosx1 )k21 ((x5 l3 )x2 sin x1 x6 cosx1 )k22 2 (c2 Rcos t x3 )k31 (R sin t x4 )k32 R cos t

Fig.4 - Fig.7 show the transient processes obtained in the simulation of the whole control system.

3 x1 x2 2 x3 x4 x5 1 x6

0 m,rad,m/sec,rad/sec -1

-2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 sec

Fig. 4. The evolution of the state vector components.

200 U1 U2 150 U3

100 n/m 50

-50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 sec

Fig. 5. The control vector components.

1.5 w1 w2 1 w3

0.5 m 0

-0.5

-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 sec Fig. 6. The new control vector components.

3 Refrence Output 2 Error

m 0

-1

-2

-3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 sec Fig. 7. First output, reference, and error.

To save a space in the paper, only first output, reference and error is given (Fig.7). The simulations confirm that the derived control forces the tracking errors to tend asymptotically to zero.

10 The Underwater Vehicle To finish the illustration of the developed software for symbolic synthesis of control system, consider the model of underwater vehicle (UV) [7]. It consists of 12 differential equations that describe the UV kinematics and dynamics:

d ( y cos sin z sin sin )

dt x cos

d ( y cos z sin )

dt cos

d cos sin dt z y

dx V cos cos V cos cos sin V sin sin dt x y y

Vz cos sin sin Vz cos sin

dy V cos V cos cos V cos sin dt x y z

dz V cos sin V cos sin V cos sin sin dt x y y

Vz cos cos Vz cos sin sin

 (M 11)Vx Myc z (M 33 )Vz y (M 22 )Vy z

Myc x y Pl sin Fx

(M )V (M )V (M )V 22 y 11 x z 33 z x 2 2 Myc ( z x ) Pl cos cos Fy

 (M 33)Vz (M 22)Vy x Myc x

(M 11)Vx z

Myc y z Pl cos sin Fz

(J x 44) x ((J z 66) (J y 55)) z y  MycVz ( 33 22)VzVy Myc (Vx y Vy x )

Myc g cos sin M x

(J )  ((J ) (J )) y 55 y x 44 z 66 x z ( 11 33)VxVz M y

(J z 66)  z ((J y 55) (J x 44)) x y  MycVx ( 22 11)VxVy Myc g sin

Myc (Vz y Vy z ) M z

where , , are Euler’s angles; (x, y, z)T is the coordinates

T T vector,( x, y , z ) , (Vx,Vy ,Vz ) are angular and linear velocities vectors;

Fx,Fy,Fz,Mx,My,Mz are components of the control vector; other parameters are constant.

5 Refrence Output 4 Error

m 2

-1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 sec Fig. 8. Third output, reference, and error.

The control law generated by the program is very large and not presented here, but the simulation of the system had confirmed its correctness. As illustration, on Fig. 8 the third output of the system is shown with desirable function

yd3 4 0.3cos(0.4t) 0.2t As seen from simulation results, asymptotically stable tracking of reference trajectory of UV is achieved with derived control law.

Discussion and final comments The software developed in this work can effectively support the procedure of control system design in symbolic form. Clearly, the bigger the dimension of the object model, the longer and more complicated symbolic expressions will be obtained. For example, one can expect that the program will generate very large expressions describing the control laws for different flexible structures, such as given, for instance, in [8], when dynamics are approximated by a finite multi–dimensional model. The software helps to designer to solve the problem of the synthesis of nonlinear control systems and to simulate them easily. Practical implementation of derived control laws in regulators is also facilitated, because the control is expressed in explicit form and can be directly used in appropriate hardware or software. Derived control laws can be of particular interest. Their symbolic presentation makes possible further analysis, optimization, simplification etc. If designer uses full nonlinear model of the dynamical object, evidently, the regulator of the system will be more complex than in the case of simplified model. The computer program presented here lets to designer fast to compare different regulators and to choose the perspective one. The NFL has been taken as example to show the effectiveness of the symbolic computations. Nevertheless, other well-formalized methodologies can be considered. Future development of the approach and software for symbolic synthesis and modelling is supposed to be oriented to output feedback nonlinear, adaptive and robust control.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The work was supported by Ministry of Science and Education of Russian Federation, the State Contract 02G25.31.0025.

REFERENCES

1. A. Isidori, Nonlinear Control Systems. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1995. 2. H. Nijmeijer, A. van der Schaft, Nonlinear Adaptive Feedback Linearization of Systems. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1990. 3. C.I. Byrnes, F.D. Priscoli, A. Isidori, Output Regulation of Uncertain Nonlinear Systems. Boston: Birkhauser, 1997. 4. P.V. Kokotovic, I. Kanellakopoulos, A.S. Morse Adaptive Feedback Linearization of Nonlinear Systems // P.V. Kokotovic (ed.) Foundation of Adaptive Control. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1991. 5. B. Castillo-Toledo, S. Di Gennaro, A.G. Loukianov, J. Rivera “On the disrete-time modelling and control of induction motor with sliding modes,” in Proc. American Control Conf., Boston, Massachusetts, 2004, pp. 2598-2604. 6. M. Vucobratovic, N. Kircansky, Scietific Fundamentals of Robotics Vol.1-3 . Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1982-1985. 7. A.A. Dyda, S. Di Gennaro, “Adaptive trajectory control for underwater robot,” in Proc.OCEANS-94 Osates, Brest, 1994. 8. S. Di Gennaro, A.A. Dyda, “Attitude control of a satellite with damping compensation of the flexible beam,” in Proc. European Control Conf., Groningem, 1993, pp. 1656-1661.

OIL SPILLS ON SEA AREAS: MINIMIZATION OF ECONOMIC DAMAGE

Evgeniya N. Egorova

Methodological approaches to economic assessment of the environmental damage are analyzed, strengths and weaknesses are identified. The complex scheme of the economic damage structure formation from emergency oil spill at sea area based on recipient approach is presented. The problem of minimizing the economic damage caused by oil spills at sea areas is formulated, and basic flowchart of the assigned task solution is offered.

Keywords: economic assessment of environmental damage, minimizing the oil spills damage, oil spills in sea areas.

Introduction The urgency of study of environment protection problems against emergency oil spills on sea areas is determined by two major factors: Firstly, the healthy growth of oil hydrocarbons production on sea shelves of our country, which, in turn, augments oil transportation volumes by sea routes using oil tankers, as well as developing dynamics of active involving Arctic and Antarctic regions over the last years in the prospecting and extraction of oil hydrocarbons. Secondly, the absence for today a scientifically grounded methodological support that permits effectively use economical instruments of environmental control from accidental pollutions with the aim of producing motivations from economic entities, raising environmental safety of their activities and also implementing in full “a polluter pays” principle. The damage put by emergency offshore oil spills, can get catastrophic proportions. In this context the tasks of research problems of processes of forming the amount of economic damage and its genesis are of most importance. Minimization of a potential economic damage of the results of oil contamination for national economy becomes one of priority problems in case of the emergency oil spill. The present scientific article is concerned with the study of an economic damage and ways of minimizing its extent. 1. Analysis of methodological approaches to economic evaluation of ecological damage There are two methodological approaches to economic evaluation of ecological damage: consolidated and recipient [3]. - Consolidated approach means the use of a number of indexes reflecting values of damage-forming factors multiplication of which allows a determination of the amount of economic damage. The part of indexes being used is the tabular data. However, resulting amount of damage is conditional; it may express total abstract amount of damage (for example, economy as a

19 whole) and leaves out a possibility of differentiation of losses on separate members of socio-ecological and economic system. - Recipient approach makes it possible to determine economic damage from negative affecting of impurity on concrete kinds of recipients by summation of various loss components expressed in monetary form. The economic damage in this case is a complex value received by summation of damages, caused to all kind of recipients within contaminated area. Please note that the existing legislatively confirmed methodical and implementing guidance as well as developed methodology of economic damage estimation applied in practice are based on consolidated approach: 1. Temporary typical procedure of economic efficiency definition of realization of nature protection measures and estimation of the economic damage caused to a national economy by environmental pollution (1986) [2]. 2. Instructional and methodological guidelines on collection payment for environmental pollution (approved by the Russian Federation Ministry of Natural Resources on 26.01.93, as amended by the Order of the Russian Federation Environment Protection Committee of 15.02.2000) [4]. 3. Technique for environmental damage assessment in case of emergencies on the main oil pipelines (approved by the Ministry of Fuel and Energy on 1.1.1995) [6]. 4. Temporary typical procedure of prevented ecological damage definition (approved by the State Committee for Environmental Protection on 09.03.99). [1]. 5. Technique for calculation losses caused to the state by breaking water laws (approved by the Ministry of natural resources and environmental protection of the Republic of Belarus on 06.01.95) [7]. 6. Methodical instructions on payment calculation for nonpoint discharge of pollutants in water bodies (approved by the State Committee for Environmental Protection on 29.12.1998) [8]. 7. Technique for environmental damage assessment caused to water bodies incurred in connection with disturbance of the water law violation (approved by order of the Russian Federation Ministry of Natural Resources of 13.04.2009 No. 87) [5]. 8. Etkin D.S. Modeling Oil Spill Response And Damage Costs (2004) [9] - universal model of an estimation of a damage from emergency oil spills. As a result of the critical analysis of existing techniques estimation of the economic damage caused to a national economy by environmental pollution, it has been revealed that all the techniques used in domestic regulation and legislation framework, are based on consolidated approach. The following key failings of the existing estimation techniques of ecological damage have been determined: - using consolidated approach testifies to rather conditional and approximate calculation of the amount of damage generated as product of

20 some indexes the part of are preselected tabular coefficients; - techniques allow to value damage to the state as a whole and do not allow calculating the damage caused to individual recipients or their groups; - at the bottom of the determined economical indexes (specific economic damage, charge rate for pollution) frequently lie environmental protection costs, but not inflicted damage rate; - the methods mainly calculate damage exclusively on river basins as there are no coefficients of the condition of water bodies for various areas of seas. Economic damage definition based on the recipient approach is more labour-intensive process, but allows receiving the most reliable and exact results as compared with consolidated approach. The other relevant advantage of the recipient approach is the fact that it is possible to calculate not an abstract amount of pollution damage but the amount of damage caused to separate groups of recipients because the calculation is based on a direct count of the damages caused. When the economic damage is formed on the basis of recipient approach, the ecological damage should be assessed first and then - physical damage by each kind of recipients and the amount of additional expenses for clean-up operations, then economic assessment of pollution effects, i.e. economic damage caused to recipients. 2. Forming economic damage composition from emergency offshore oil spill based on recipient approach Integrated process of formation economic damage composition caused by emergency offshore oil spill includes two types of expenses: - expenses of I type are the expenses caused by oil pollution effect on recipients (disamenity costs of oil pollution caused to recipients including costs for pollution effect clean-up, compensation for inflicted damage as well as compensation for inflicted and noncompensated damages); - expenses of II type are the expenses for preventing effect of the happened oil pollution on recipients (expenses for operative spill response operation). Expenses for environmental restoration to the initial condition and damages incurred by a society are related to the expenses of I type. For definition of the losses incurred by a society, it is offered to define three groups of the recipients subject to negative effect of oil pollution caused by oil spills on sea areas: 1. Facilities used for economic activities (enterprises and organizations getting into a pollution bubble, and also indirectly incurring losses) which are damaged by sea cost or sea area pollution as a result of an emergency oil spill; 2. Natural resources of marine ecosystem, sensitive to oil contamination (or already used in economic activities, or planed to be used in

21 the short term), which failure or damage involves losses; 3. Natural resources of marine ecosystem not used in economic activities, which are sensitive to the oil contamination. Thus the first and the second groups of recipients are tightly interconnected among themselves because in case of a pollution incident, negative impact on utilized natural resources will cause losses and loss of the income of the objects of economic operations (enterprises and organizations), i.e. an economic damage. Five types of natural resources have been instituted as natural resources, sensitive to emergency oil pollution: biological resources, recreation resources, territorial (transportation) resource, assimilatory potential of harbor area, chemical resources of seawater. These natural resources which are recipients, in the arrangement of integrated damage formation make a group of natural resources used in economic operations. Economical assessment of the natural damage caused to natural resources being in use, will give the amount of economic damage caused to the objects of economic operations. The full amount of economic damage on every type of recipients is determined as the sum of two components: a) Damages inflicted to the objects of economic operations: - cost of the lost natural resources and depreciation of the damaged natural resources (real damage); - losses of the objects of economic operations caused by non-receiving of the expected incomes (missed profit) because of the loss or damage of a resource. b) Expenses of the polluter for environmental restoration and depollution: the expenses need for restoring the damage to the environment (bringing it to initial state, reproduction of the lost natural resources). Expenses of the second type as a part of the amount of economic damage (Fig. 1) - expenses for oil spill response (OSR) - in each separate event depend on the chosen technology of oil cleanup. 3. A task of minimizing economic damage from emergency oil spills on sea areas Thus, the total amount of damage from emergency oil spill (D) is composed of two components - the expenses caused by affecting of oil contamination on recipients (Z) and expenses for operative oil spill response operation (L). Thus increase of OSR expenses will lead to mitigation of the damage caused to recipients, and on the contrary. The optimum will be reached in the case where the total amount of economic damage will be minimal. On the basis of these reasoning the flow chart on minimization of total amount of economic damage from oil spills (Fig. 2) is made. Statement of problem on minimization of the amount of economic damage is in many respects determined by rational reasons about comparison

22 of the amount of potential damage to recipients and expenses for operating spill response operation. For handling a problem to be solved on the one hand, it is necessary the presence of input data about quantity of the recipients subject to negative affecting of oil contamination (i = 1, 2, …, I), types of expenses, losses and wastes of recipients, including the loss of profits, expenses for liquidation of consequences and environmental restoration (j = 1, 2, …, J), and also estimated monetary estimation of damage for each types of expenses, losses and wastes of recipients (Sij). Organization of iterative cycle by types of recipients and the nested iteration by types of expenditures and losses of recipients makes it possible to calculate monetary value of compensation for damage caused by oil contamination for each recipient (Zi). Besides, the data about quantity of the resources involved in works on liquidation of oil flood, including the equipment, materials, a personnel (k = 1, 2, …, K) and the applicable expenses for operative liquidation of an oil spill with a view of prevention of a damage for recipients (Pik) are necessary. Organization of iterated cycle by types of expenditures for operating spill response operation makes it possible to calculate monetary value of expenses for prevention of damage for each type of recipients (Li). Further it is necessary to compare among themselves on each type of recipient the obtained amounts of damage caused by oil contamination (Zi) and damage prevention costs (Li) to determine the minimum value (Di). One can assume here that variants of comparison of combined values are possible that represent the sum of amount of damage to recipients decreased on account of expenses for liquidation, and these expenses for oil spill response (aiZi+biLi) are possible. The sum of all the obtained minimum values of economic damage will give the minimum value of total amount of economic damage from an emergency oil spill (Dmin); and it is necessary to achieve this amount of damage when taking a decision and during oil-spill response management.

Types of recipients, monetary value of damage on each on START them (losses, disbenefits, loss of profits, mitigation of Initial data List of resources and OSR consequences and environ- operations, OSR costs mental reclamation costs)

Organization of iterative cycle by types of recipients

(i = 1, 2, … , I) Organization of iterative cycle by types of expenditures and losses of recipients

(j = 1, 2, … , J)

Yes j ≤ J

Organization of iterative cycle by types of expenditures on operative OSR

(k = 1, 2, … , K)

Yes k ≤ K

Yes i ≤ I

Dmin = D -min.econ.damage

END

Fig. 2 - The flow chart on minimization of total amount of economic damage from oil spills

Conclusion Study of economic damage structure resulting from emergency oil spills on sea areas allowed elaborating the complex scheme of elements forming the amount of economic damage using recipient approach. Analysis of structural scheme of forming economic damage caused by emergency oil spill made it possible to formulate a problem of minimizing amount of economic damage and to offer an algorithm for its solving. Practical application of the presented results of scientific researches will allow making optimum managerial decisions in problems of environment protection against emergency oil spills on sea areas at the stage of scenario researches of model oil spills and also during development of oil spill response plans in preparation for OSR manpower and resources

REFERENCES

1. Temporary typical procedure of prevented ecological damage definition (approved by the State Committee for Environmental Protection 09.03.99). [URL: http://ohranatruda.ru/ot_biblio/normativ/data_normativ/7/7130/index.php (access date: 26.11.2013)] 2. Temporary typical procedure of economic efficiency definition of realization of nature protection measures and estimation of the economic damage caused to a national economy by environmental pollution (1986). [URL: http://zakon.law7.ru/legal2/se5/pravo5322/index.htm (access date: 26.11.2013)] 3. Egorova E.N. Economical instruments of environment protection against emergency oil spills at marine hauls: Monograph. - Vladivostok: Maritime State University, 2013. - 200 pp. 4. Instructional and methodological guidelines on collection payment for environmental pollution (approved by the Russian Federation Ministry of Natural Resources on 26.01.93, as amended by the Order of the Russian Federation Environment Protection Committee of 15.02.2000) [URL: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_25895/(access date: 26.11.2013)] 5. Technique for environmental damage assessment caused to water bodies incurred in connection with disturbance of the water law violation (approved by order of the Russian Federation Ministry of Natural Resources of 13.04.2009 No. 87) [URL: http://www.complexdoc.ru/ntdtext/534927/1 (access date: 26.11.2013)] 6. Technique for environmental damage assessment in case of emergencies on the main oil pipelines (approved by the Ministry of Fuel and Energy on 1.1.1995). [URL: http://www.complexdoc.ru/ntdtext/546124/1 (access date: 26.11.2013)] 7. Technique for calculation losses caused to the state by breaking water laws (approved by the Ministry of natural resources and environmental protection of the Republic of Belarus on 06.01.95). [URL: http://pravo.levonevsky.org/ bazaby11/republic59/text299.htm (access date: 26.11.2013)] 8. Methodical instructions on payment calculation for nonpoint discharge of

25 pollutants in water bodies (approved by the State Committee for Environmental Protection on 29.12.1998 with amendments of 23.06.2000). [URL: http://www.ecoreport.ru/npb/metodics/metodicheskie-ukazaniya-rascheta-platy-za- vodu.html (access date: 26.11.2013)] 9. Etkin D.S. Modeling Oil Spill Response And Damage Costs/Environmental Research Consulting, Cortlandt Manor, NY, USA, 2004.

HYDROGRAPHIC FACTOR OF THE RESULTS OF THE RUSSO-JAPANESE WAR (1904—1905)

Roman V. Kolesnik

In order to ensure navigational safety of ships and warships in the Far Eastern seas, particularly in the Yellow Sea, hydrographic studies of the seas of Northeast China and the Russian Far East were organized by Russia as well as Japan. The results of this work influenced outcome of the Russo-Japanese war of 1904—1905.

Keyword: Russian Far East, Japan, Northeast China, safety of navigation, hydrology, hydrometeorology, navigation, research.

The main reasons for the Russia’s defeat in Russo-Japanese War were revealed, proved in details and described by specialists. This article studies comparative element of influence of hydrographic factor on the outcome of naval battle between Russia and Japan, considering that the war went into world history as the first war of battleships, mines and torpedoes, submarines and radio. Policy of Russia was dominated by Big East program in first five years of the Russian Emperor Nicholas II’s reign. That program determined future development of country’s economy and transport system in the Far East, as well as colonization of Far Eastern lands by people from central regions of Russia. Fortress and port city of Vladivostok was developed; Trans-Siberian railway was built. Russian Empire leased from Qing China's ice-free ports Lushun (Port-Arthur) and Dalian (Dal’nii) on March 27, 1898. Later South Manchuria Railway was built from Harbin to port Dal’nii. Having acquired southern part of the Liaodong Peninsula with Port- Arthur as a result of 25-year lease for basing its naval forces in the Pacific, Russia gained direct access to the Yellow Sea, virtually unknown to Russian sailors. For decades, from the mid-XIXth century Russian ships and vessels for objective reasons were rare guests in those waters and could not gain knowledge of navigation and hydrographic conditions, characteristics of hydrology and hydrometeorology of the Yellow Sea. There were no adequate domestic navigation maps of this region on Russian ships, instead of them inaccurate English maps were used. It should be noted that industrial infrastructure of the Kwantung Peninsula had to be created virtually from scratch. Realizing importance of the occurred military and political event, Head Hydrographic Department of the Marine Ministry of the Russian Empire organized a complex of hydrographic studies and surveys in new area of basing of the 1st Pacific Squadron and ships of Siberian flotilla in order to ensure the safety of navigation in new geographic area of the Far East.

Russian navy in the Far East was a significant force and included 7 battleships, 9 cruisers, 24 destroyers and other ships. Each ship required modern and reliable maps of the navigation area and serviceable modern navigational equipment. In January of 1898 in order to expand logistical capabilities and increase importance of tasks, separate Eastern Ocean Survey was reorganized into Eastern Ocean Hydrographic Expedition [4, p. 375 - 376, 571] headed by Lt.- Col. M.E. Zhdanko*. Functions of Hydrographic Expedition were urgently refocused to the south, to the Yellow Sea, where in less than five years from May of 1899 to January of 1904 significant work on hydrographic description of the Korea Bay and the Liaodong Peninsula [2] was completed by a handful of hydrographers. In parallel, ship and sloop soundings were conducted and hydrological regime of the sea was studied. At that historical period hydrographic expedition consisted of chief, 7 assistants, and 73 "lower ranks" officials. "Ermak" transport was used as a survey vessel, which had been in use for nearly thirty years before. The Expedition worked in two areas simultaneously – in Yellow Sea and Japanese Sea. It was also necessary to ensure shipping in the Peter the Great Bay and Amur estuary and equip new naval base in Port-Arthur given the catastrophic shortage of hydrographers. Topographers of the Priamurye Military District began topogeodetic work on the Liaodong Peninsula in 1899 thus facilitating the work of Hydrographic Expedition as geodetic works could be carried out only on the islands. To perform the tasks of describing shores, studying hydrology (tidal and other currents), conducting meteorological observations, and studying waters of the Yellow Sea in relation to the navigation, forces and ships of the 1st Pacific Squadron and Siberian flotilla were involved. “Sivuch" and "Bobr" gunboats with shallow draft and "Tungus" transport were actively used in the course of survey works [4, p. 574 - 576]. To speed up the process of survey and description of the coasts, hydrographic survey method was changed. It was decided to switch from a high-precision, but slowly developing triangulation method to building supporting network on the basis of the coastal astronomic observations posts, while covering spaces between these posts by plane-table surveying. The signs of geodetic network were built on the coast, the foot-gauge was installed and level observations were organized on the Haiyongdao Island in the Bay of Thornton. Along the southern coast of the Kwantung Peninsula between Port- Arthur and the Tagus Bay dimensional line was built, modernized in 1902 with the construction of the third pyramid on the Tigrovy Peninsula. Boat and ship soundings of bays and open sea areas along the Korean coast were conducted; reconnaissance works on the Round (Yuandao) Island and the Encounter rock were carried out in order to build lighthouses. Tidal and wind currents observations were made in certain areas of works, not including the

28 whole area of the Korea Bay and the Yellow Sea, as well as magnetic observations were carried out. Work of the Expedition resulted in publishing first temporary navigational map of the Korean Bay number 562 in 1900, which was annually supplemented and itemized. Relatively large sequence number of the navigation map for the seas of Russian Far East and even more so for the Yellow Sea does not mean anything; it just indicates that marine cartography in Russia has a long history. Moreover, on the basis of works of Russian sailors a series of descriptive navigational publications was released. Head Hydrographic Department prepared "Description of the coast of the Kwantung Peninsula" based on the results of work of the "Zabiyaka" 2nd rank cruiser crew in 1899, and "Guidelines for sailing from Kronstadt to Vladivostok" in 1903 [1, p. 100, 102]. Those years publishing of Russian nautical charts on the Kwantung Peninsula area and Korean (now West-Korean) and Liaodong Bays of the Yellow Sea was launched; in total 22 nautical charts were composed. But it was not enough as some ships and vessels of the 1st Pacific Squadron and Siberian flotilla still lacked new navigation charts. Whole water area of the Yellow Sea was not mapped, there was no complete systematic data on the nature, strength and intensity of tidal and wind currents. Triangulation network established on the coast of Liaodong Peninsula and nearby islands was not sufficiently developed, and there was shortage of navigation equipment on the coast. Command structure of Russian ships had small experience of navigating in the waters of the Yellow Sea. Exit of Russian combat ships from Port Arthur - the main naval base of Russia - depended on tidal currents and had serious time limitations. With the beginning of combat operations hydrographic works were stopped and hydrographic officers were sent to their combat ships (they have worked here as hydrographers too little time). Since 1868 Japan began large-scale modernization of its economy. Country’s foreign trade developed rapidly, political views of the government also changed. In the last decade of the XIXth century Japanese government pursued a policy of external expansion. By the end of the Sino-Japanese War (1894 - 1895) the Land of the Rising Sun had acquired a number of areas: the Penghu archipelago, the Taiwan (Formosa) Island and Liaodong Peninsula. Under the provisions of the Shimonoseki Treaty signed by the end of the war, China renounced all rights to Korea. Such a significant victory of Japan prior to its military conflict with Russia became possible due to advanced and superior level of Japanese Navy and it ability to accomplish special combat missions, including issues of region’s navigation and hydrographic exploration. Seeking to enter international arena, Japan leadership understood that navigation intensity and further development of trade and economy depended

29 directly on the degree of navigation knowledge of adjacent seas and coasts of neighboring states. Military Hydrographic Department of the Naval Ministry was created in Japan in 1871. Its performed tasks of navigation and hydrographic support of naval forces operations in peacetime and wartime, including hydrographic surveys, composing maps and navigational manuals, providing naval war theater with navigation equipment, supplying ships with maps, descriptive manuals and navigation devices, providing ships with information about the changes of weather, navigation environment and mine awareness. Since 1881 systematic survey of the coast of Japan began. First field works were carried out by only seven hydrographic officers, later their number increased. The first Japanese nautical charts were composed on the basis of the surveys records in 1872. By 1897 Military Hydrographic Department of the Naval Ministry of Japan had already published 288 maps of the coast of Japan and adjacent seas. First description of lighthouses of Japan appeared in 1874. Later, regular production of "Notices for sailors" started in 1879. Since 1901 systematic reviews of meteorological information incoming from ships were made [4, p. 572]. Military Hydrographic Department worked closely with the third Department (intelligence) of the Naval General Staff and its materials were included into the sailing directions and navigation specifications. In 1900 - 1903 years the 3rd Department of the Naval General Staff of Japan prepared four secret releases of "Descriptions of coasts of the Far East". Geographically these descriptions covered the coastline from Russian Primorye to Eastern Indochina, a total length of several thousand miles. These descriptions contained a wide spectrum of data concerning both political and military and economic issues as well as issues of meteorology, navigation, hydrology, hydrography and geodesy. These descriptions were regularly updated and refined. The scope and volume of these documents underlines the importance of work, made by Japanese sailors in the view of forthcoming military confrontation. Presence of Imperial Japanese Navy combat ships in the Korean and Chinese ports on a regular basis was commonly practiced for demonstration of naval flag and protection of the citizens of Empire. Civilian vessels carrying out tasks of Naval Hydrographic Department in addition to the delivery of goods were involved in gathering navigational and hydrographic, climatic and meteorological and other information [6, p. 134 - 143]. The following fact is also noteworthy as reflected in the descriptions: local Japanese population was actively involved in collecting information, performing hydrographic and other operations in foreign ports [7, p. 105 - 112]. Thus, we can assume that, unlike Russia, Japanese hydrographers had prepared for the Russo-Japanese war well enough. Theater of military operations was studied and described from the points of navigation and hydrography. National collection of navigation charts and descriptive manuals

30 was prepared, basing on the results of surveys and researches. Command staff of Japanese ships had extensive experience of sailing in all areas of the Yellow Sea. Japan had much more time, strength and opportunities to prepare for implementation of military tasks and its success considerably exceeded the effectiveness of Russia's actions. The outbreak of hostilities by Japan became sudden for Russia. Activity of Japanese forces at sea was promoted by the perfect knowledge of the theater of war. Command staff and crews of Japanese combat ships knew area of the Yellow Sea and had the very recent experience of successful military operations in this area against the Qing China Navy. Good knowledge of navigational features of both water area of the Yellow Sea near the Liaodong Peninsula and the Peter the Great Bay in the Sea of Japan allowed Japan to perform a very successful sudden torpedo attack on Russian squadron standing in the outer roads of Port Arthur at night from January 26th to 27th in 1904. On April 15, 1904 Japan laid 75-mine barrage in Peter the Great Bay between the Gamov Cape and the Askold Island [4, p. 580, 581]. Those two battle operations involved considerable amount of Japanese ships. Russo- Japanese war itself is peculiar for active and successful usage of mines by both countries that shows not only efficiency of this weapon, but also accounting navigation and hydrographic and hydrological conditions of its application. Two episodes mentioned above had their continuation for Russian hydrography. The hydrographers henceforth were given the tasks of mines monitoring and trawling. Squadron commander Vice-Admiral S.O.Makarov* organized trawling in the outer harbor by auxiliary vessels in Port Arthur in February 1904. Hydrographic officers also participated in these activities. Chief of Hydrographic Expedition in Vladivostok Colonel M.E.Zhdanko, with the beginning of war headed the mine observation posts on the coast of Sea of Japan in Primorye and Sakhalin. He also supervised activities of the first hydrographic unit, established on the basis of remaining parts of Expedition in Vladivostok and involved in mine trawling. Using port steam longboats, trawling unit was actively engaged in trawling navigable fairways. Hydrographic knowledge of trawling water areas appeared particularly useful. In order to neutralize the danger of mines, in addition to knowledge about mines and their coordinates it was necessary to know the depth of place where the mines were laid, character of bottom topography, soil characteristics, presence, intensity and character of the flows. Knowledge of navigational features, accounting tidal currents in the places of basing of Pacific Squadron ships is proved by three attempts undertaken by Japanese to block Russian ships in the inner harbor of Port Arthur in February - May 1904. The third attempt in conjunction with the usage of mines deprived Russian squadron of access to the sea for several days. It allowed the 2nd and later of the 4th Japanese Army to start amphibious landing operation in Manchuria. During the Russo-Japanese war,

Japan conducted several amphibious operations on the coast of Korea and China in the Yellow Sea: in Inchon in February 1904, on the Kwantung Peninsula in April – May 1904. In the course of the operations tens of thousands of soldiers, hundreds of guns, thousands of horses, tens tons of ammunition, equipment, property and food were involved. Amphibious landings were mainly carried out to the unequipped coasts and were quite successful, which proved good training and operations organization, beforehand preparation of forces and means involved in the delivery and landing, as well as Japan naval command’s high level of navigational and hydrographic knowledge of landing areas. Russian troops and fleets could not counter landing operations of Japan. Neglect of direction and speed of the current in course of laying mines resulted in heavy losses in the Bay Dalianwan (Taminwan) near the port Dalnii. Minelayer "Yenisei" was drifted to its own mines, exploded and sank on January 29, 1904. Cruiser "Boyarin" dispatched with four Russian destroyers to investigate an accident, on approaching the bay struck a mine laid by the "Yenisei" [5, p. 86]. The death of two battleships and large number of crew members, constrained search actions and the transition to the passive- cautious tactics, as well as a big moral and psychological damage were the results of Russian ships command staff’s lack of knowledge of hydrographic and hydrological features of the theater of war. As a positive example of the use of knowledge of meteorological and navigation-hydrographic conditions of hostilities area in conjunction with scrupulous surveillance of the situation and valiant boldness, an episode with minelayer "Amur", commanded by Captain 2nd rank M.V. Ivanov** on May 1, 1904 can be taken. It resulted in undermining two Japanese battle ships, which then sank. Hydrographer Lieutenant B.V. Davydov****, who served as a navigator on "Amur" minelayer, distinguished himself in this episode. It is appropriate to talk about the 2nd Pacific Squadron led by Vice-Admiral Z.P. Rozhestvensky. That squadron, which died tragically in the Korean Strait, consisted of 30 combat and 8 auxiliary ships [3, p. 722, 898]. It made multi- monthly tiring marine expedition "over two oceans" without any catastrophic accidents and ship losses for the whole almost circumnavigation trip. The squadron was the first in history to conduct such a military campaign, given war time. The role of hydrography was provision of maps and navigational devices, navigational training of squadron command staff and the safety of navigation. During Russo-Japanese War submarines appeared and their practical combat use started. Given the problems solved by hydrography, knowledge of hydrological, navigational and hydrographic features of the area of application of submarines was required for practical and combat activities. The first Russian submarines were still very small and structurally imperfect. In addition to patrolling Peter the Great Bay submarines made several distant

70 - 100 miles campaigns to the coasts of Korea and the Cape Povorotny [8, p. 120, 121, 134 - 136]. In addition to the courage and bravery of crew members it required practical knowledge of navigation conditions, climate, hydrological and meteorological features of the area. It is difficult to assess combat capabilities of submarines of that time nowadays but the fact of their presence and combat use in the course of war is undeniable, which indirectly shows the role of hydrography. Russo-Japanese war of 1904 - 1905 was marked by the usage of modern weapons; it was the first war of long-range artillery of battleships, mines and torpedoes, submarines and radio. Both beginning and final of war for two countries were influenced by their external and internal policies, economics, and weapon with its advantages, disadvantages and application. Navigation and hydrographic knowledge of the naval theater of operations, despite its apparent simplicity nevertheless had a significant impact on the results of naval weapons application, as well as organization and conduct of the naval war itself. Russo-Japanese War was the first naval war, which clearly demonstrated the practical value of hydrography.

REFERENCES

1. Antoshkevich A.V., Komaritsyn A.A., Smirnov V.G., Fridman B.S. Istoriya morskogo kartograficheskogo proizvodstva v Rossii (konets XIX nachalo XX v.) SPb.: TSKP VMF, 2003. 2. Atlas okeanov, Tikhiy okean / otv. redaktor Gorshkov S. G. Leningrad GUNiO¬ MO SSSR. 174. 3. Voyenno-morskoy entsiklopedicheskiy slovar' / gl. red. V. I Kuroyedov. M.: Voyenizdat. 2003. 4. Istoriya Gidrograficheskoy sluzhby Rossiyskogo flota v 4 t. / otv. red. A.A. Komaritsyn. SPb.: GUNiO MO. 1997. T. 1. Gidrograficheskaya sluzhba Rossiyskogo flota (1696—1917 gg.) / gl. red. V. G. Romanov. SPb.: GUNiO¬ MO. 1997. 5. Kobylinskiy L.V. Gidrograficheskiye i gidrometeorologicheskiye issledovaniya Tikhogo okeana: Gidrograficheskaya sluzhba TOF: 1856 — 2006. SPb.: GUNiO MO. 2006. 6. Polutov A. V. Voyenno-morskaya razvedka Yaponii protiv glavnoy bazy Tikhookeanskoy eskadry Rossii nakanune Russko-yaponskoy voyny 1904 — 1905 gg. v Inchkhone // Rossiya i ATR. Vladivostok. 2008. № 3. 7. Polutov A. V. Desantnaya operatsiya Yaponskoy armii i flota v fevrale 1904 g. v Inchkhone / Vladivostok.: Izd vo Russkiy ostrov. 2009. 8. Semyonov V. N. Istoriya podvodnykh sil Rossii na Dal'nem Vostoke. T. 1. 1901 — 1953 gg. Vladivostok. 2012

THE INFLUENCE OF INDIVIDUAL CREATIVITY ON THE SUCCESS OF PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES IN THE MARITIME FIELD

Коnstantin G. Krechetnikov

The author considers the concept of individual creativity and the peculiarities of its manifestations in the work of specialists of different professional areas as well as the impact of creativity on a naval officer’s career success.

Keywords: intellectual-creative resources, creativity, socio-psychological culture, creative and non-creative professions.

Throughout history, the development of a society has been determined by the people who were seeking knowledge, were sensitive to the changes in that society, and were capable of breaking into new areas of human activity to generate creative ideas. Modern society, which has entered its third millennium, assigns a special creativity role for each particular person. To solve social, environmental, economic and cultural issues specific to today's reality, society requires active, creative individuals. That is why it is important to contribute to the development of personalities possessing a set of unique qualities such as activity, initiative and ability to make independent decisions and organize the conditions necessary for their implementation. Creativity is an important factor in the development of personality in the sense that it affects an individual’s willingness to change and abandon stereotypes. The variability of the modern world encourages people to be creative. Today, innovative solutions are needed in many professions, including the field of maritime transport and port facilities, shipbuilding and repair, fisheries, conservation and management of marine resources and international maritime cooperation. Certainly, there are professions where innovative solutions are necessary almost every day – for instance, marketing and PR, advertising and management, and daily work in any market with rapidly growing competition. To survive in this rapidly changing world requires constant changes as well as the ability to both identify and create something new. Creativity is no longer the peculiar quality of artists; today it is vital to be a creator. Under these circumstances, the issue of personal creativity as well as its sources and modes of individual development gets special attention and becomes one of the major directions of contemporary scientific research.

Creativity may be described as individual ability, often included as one of the traits comprising the idea of giftedness, which is defined as the ability to solve problems arising in static systems and to create innovative ideas that deviate from traditional ways of thinking. According to A. Maslow creativity is a natural quality inherent to everybody from the moment of birth but is usually lost by the majority of people under the influence of environment. He believed that creativity is one of the most important characteristics of self-actualization. A. Maslow understands creativity as a quality that can be applied to any life problem [1]. Creativity is defined as total originality; such personal originality is qualified as an ability to generate new, original ideas, see many solutions where others would see only one or two, and determine quickly the way out of unique situations. Moreover, it means a developed imagination and fantasy as well as some "withdrawal" from banal, typical ways and common rules. Creativity also implies a level of creative talent and a capacity for artistic expression, both of which are relatively stable personality characteristic [2]. One of the most prominent researchers in this field, American scientist H. P. Torrance, designates creativity as the ability to keenly perceive shortcomings and gaps in knowledge to sense to disharmony [3]. J. Guilford considers creativity as the ability to abandon stereotypical ways of thinking. J. Guilford distinguishes two kinds of creative products: tangible, which are recognized by culture, and psychological, which are created not only by geniuses, are not always tangible, but they can also be expressed or only imaginable ideas. E.V. Batovrina, using as her basis the works of J. Guilford, E.P. Torrance, R. May, V.N. Druzhinin, etс., has identified 28 personal factors that influence the development of creativity: divergent thinking; originality of thought; semantic flexibility; capacity for the detection and treatment of a problem; ability to generate a large number of ideas, to analyze, to overcome stereotypes, to take risks, to use motivation, and to express emotions; associative thinking; curiosity; the pursuit of excellence; the shape of memory; spontaneous behavior; ability to improvise; perception of disharmony; self-confidence; individualism; "tenacity" of attention; imagination; intuition; a positive perception of innovations; and, lastly, independence of judgment [5, p.17) Creative thinking means, above all, uncritical perception of information and its postponed evaluation. Such a way of thinking develops through training into an attitude and can be applied in every life sphere. Creativity is divided into two types: verbal and nonverbal. Each of these types is diagnosed individually. J. Guilford and E.P Torrance were pioneers in the field of the diagnosis of creativity, and they developed the first tests. Typical tasks for the evaluation of creativity are [3,4]: - identify all possible ways to use a familiar object;

- write all the words containing a specified letter (or combination of letters); - name all the items that belong to a certain class; - continue the statement, the thought, the metaphor; - spell the word that would be united with three other words belonging to mutually distant associative areas; - describe the situation in the picture and predict all possible consequences of its further development; - make a complete image on the basis of а simple graphic shape, or using а few simple shapes, such as circle, triangles, etc.; - add a few lines to a preexisting figure in order to obtain a meaningful image and give a name to the resulting pattern; - listen to the sound and specify to whom (or what) it may belong. Until now, no tests clearly dividing people into creative and noncreative had been established. There are more questions here than answers. For example, a non-standard or uncommon response during testing may be caused by quite different psychological phenomena: actual originality as a manifestation of productive capacity; super “originality” as a manifestation of personal inadequacy overcompensation; or intellectual or mental inadequacy [6]. On the other hand, if the person does not give an original and creative response during testing, it does not mean he lacks creativity, but this, rather, may indicate, for example, his inability to relax and feel comfortable in a controlled testing situation. Therefore, as noted by V.N Druzhinin, "by tests of creativity, we can identify creative persons, but cannot perfectly determine non creative ones”. The reasons for this are the spontaneous manifestations of creativity and their independence from external and internal regulations [3]. Therefore, in practice, the identification and study of creativity in modern psychology includes a whole range of additional methods, the most common of which are as follows: - the analysis of so-called small creative challenges or the solution of “tricky” tasks, which usually require reformulation of the task itself or formulation of a way to escape the subject’s self-imposed limitations; - the use of “hinting” tasks that contain a hint as to the main task; - the use of "multi-layer" problems (series of similar tasks in which a creative person is able to discover a common pattern underlying the solution); - the method of expert estimations, which uses the group opinion of a set of qualified professionals (experts) about individual results; - a select few personality questionnaires and projective tests (such as MMPI, the Rorschach Test, etc.). The works of D.B. Bogoyavlenskaya, who has developed the methods of the “creative field”, which is characterized by a significantly greater validity than the aforementioned tests of creativity, are of great interest to the study of

37 the problem of creativity as a whole [7]. This method means the solving of a large number of similar tasks with hidden features, sooner or later discovered by creative subjects. The basic principles of this method are: 1) lack of external and internal assessment stimulation; 2) lack of “ceiling” (restrictions from the top) in the study of the object; 3) duration (no restrictions of time) and repetition of the experiment. It is considered that individual creativity is related to several factors of biological nature (heredity, aspirations), as well as certain characteristics of environment [5]. And both of these factors determine not only the presence or absence of creative capabilities, but also the "scale" of creative features (in other words, the quantitative characteristic of creativity). It is assumed that any individual from an early age has a certain scope for the development of creativity based on the internal need for it. High creativity and demonstrated ability to develop its characteristics are not always peculiarities of a certain individual. The development of human creativity is mainly determined by the environment from which the person has evolved, as well as how this environment stimulated creativity and maintained / developed human personality. There is evidence that between the ages of 6 and 7 years old, personal creativity is reduced by 50% and decreases by another 30% before a child reaches maturity[8]. Our source of live and creative energy is gradually stifled by the sands of common sense, rationality and stereotypes. But the source itself is in all of us! It is a simple matter of removing socially engrained barriers and allowing this radiant source of creativity in each person to flow freely, cascading like a waterfall, sparkling in the sun. As for the purely practical level, the management of the creative process is a crucial element for success and survival. On this basis alone, both individuals and organizations are striving to adapt to rapidly growing changes in society and technology on the global level. Creative behavior is a process of communication in which the individual has to deal with his environment (external motivation) and himself (the intensification of own abilities as a response to external motivation), a process that continues throughout our lives. Creative persons in the maritime field begin to generate innovations, which can bring a huge profit (here creativity means the ability to produce unusual ideas that deviate from traditional schemes and to quickly resolve problematic situations). Creativity depends on a number of factors: experience (knowledge and skills), talent, and the ability to think in new ways and to break through the barriers of the "habitual". Especially important is so-called "internal

38 creativity," an idea exemplified by the fact that people inspired by their work perform day-to-day business in more creative ways than their counterparts. Creativity in management implies, first of all, the ability to see new opportunities while everybody else simply does not see them. One American company has changed one of the original rules of management: “premium is paid after successful work”. The company pays premium before the main work and “hot” season, 50 dollars for each of the 140 employees. By doing this, they have increased their sales figures by up to 30% in comparison with the previous year. They are changed the sequence of management and impacted their profit margins, receiving and additional 30%. This example underscores the power of creativity in a management decision. There is even such a method of reverse of the initial guideline. You highlight your main views on a considered issue, then reverse the guidelines and try to implement the opposite one. For example, some time ago it was believed that you are to pay for the car first and only then drive it. But someone suggested selling cars on credit, and it was a proper and creative proposition for that time. In the field of strategic management of sales personnel, the skill level of effective sales managers and successful retailers has been examined. As a result seven factor groups were determined and one of these groups includes factors such as creativity of thinking. Here it is regarded as one of the factors determining efficiency in sales [9]. Creativity is very important in the professional career of marine specialist. The ability to intuitively understand a given situation and to effectively implement one’s own ideas (and trust them) is as valuable as the ability to critically analyze opportunities and obstacles. Creative thinking can and should be developed. Quick and proper decisions will be thus rewarded. According to a Harvard studies, 80% of surveyed top managers attribute their success to creative thinking. The ability to think creatively is also considered as the most important feature for gaining success by top businessmen, for example, Bill Gates. The use of creativity as a tool for the career development of marine specialists is often underestimated. Usually, we are advised to make decisions rationally after weighing the pros and cons. Meanwhile, it is worth trying to release oneself, to allow one’s thoughts to flow freely and to let the decision come easily on its own. Certainly, there are people who may do this easily; nevertheless, creativity in each person can and should be developed. Some people believe that there are creative and non-creative professions. As for artists, musicians, writers, etc., we consider them as creative people with boundless imagination, who needn’t endure any restrictive rules during performing their job. In contrast, people involved in the sphere of maritime transport and port facilities, shipbuilding and ship repair, fishing, conservation and management

39 of marine resources, maritime law and security, international maritime cooperation in the region, etc., are considered to be noncreative. In fact, creativity is very important in the life of any one of us - if not more so as it allows us to survive and, in particular, to compete successfully in the labor market. Today there are many companies in which every employee, regardless of his position, possesses creativity. This fully applies to organizations in maritime field. Hans Selye, the famous creator of the theory of stress, has designated seven stages in the creative process [3], using a quite witty (and somewhat comical) form of description. The first is love: the wish and ardent desire to comprehend the truth. The second is confirmation by concrete facts. The third is “pregnancy”, in which a person “bears” an idea. The fourth contains painful “birth pangs”: one feels the closeness of a problem’s solution and suffers from the inability to express it. The fifth is birth: the transition from the darkness of unconsciousness into consciousness, bringing a deep relief to the person. The sixth is the inspection and examination of the newborn, which involves checking the viability of an idea. And, finally, the seventh is life: the start of an idea’s independent existence. Other authors [3, 4, 7] designate more or fewer phases or stages of the creative process, but the conceptual meaning of the act of creativity remains the same. Thus, we can conclude that the creative process in any professional field has two important aspects: generating ideas (their compositions) and a selection of valuable, productive options. The first aspect implies mostly unconscious processes, while the second is based more on reason. But the integrity of the creative process has yet to be formalized; it is impossible to describe its progress and even more impossible to express it by way of any formulas. Even if a profession is not considered creative, a place for creativity can always be found, at least in small amounts. Creativity is a buzzword in many different fields and can be found in the job description of a director-general, marketing and customer service specialists, and even an accountant. Job applicants frequently write resumes with the sole aim of pleasing the employer, using clichéd expressions without truly thinking about how they correspond with the real profile of the activity. Nowadays, any company can convert the creative potential of their employees into the cash equivalent. Any business – whether they be selling dairy products or producing of high-tech equipment – is promoted by the ideas of innovators. Creativity knows no bounds. The market reacts noticeably to good ideas, and employers increasingly require creative thinking from their employees [10]. At the same time, there are a number of objective and subjective obstacles preventing the wider use of creative activity in modern production. The main obstacle is the external environment in which creative activity

40 should be performed – the conditions of changes in motivation, determined for professionals by the strict time limits for making decisions and using resources with simultaneous increasing responsibility for the final result. According to the law of Yerkes-Dodson, this situation leads to the inhibition of the creative process and sometimes to the complete inability of personnel with a lack of creative process for expressing creativity. For implementation of “standard” contracts, each enterprise must develop “standard” business-plans with a “standard” provision of resources – both intellectual and creative. Nevertheless, the existing requirements for staffing a certain project are limited to the traditional methods of recruitment and based solely upon professional qualifications. However, this is not enough to guarantee the fulfillment of such high-tech tasks as may be formulated in the contract. You must personalize the organization of certain work fulfillment, in order to allow for the evaluation of the intellectual and creative resources of each performer. Performers own these resources and offer them to the enterprise to fulfill obligations under the contract. It follows that each specialist of a given maritime organization should be considered as an intellectual source of constructive actions, able to achieve preset economic results while still performing certain activities in the workplace in a timely manner. The level of intellectual and creative capital owned by every performer determines the market value of executed work – that is, the personal and corporate economic results of the organization’s activities. The level of production development in the marine area and the growth of information processes, when the specialist is not able to "digest" a wide amount of information with traditional methods, determines the relevance of new and more creative approaches to the organization of information and professional activities. The competitive specialist should have the ability to rank information (in other words, an unconscious feeling about relevance), to understand the most pressing issues in a surrounding reality, to express professional problems and to identify key information sources [11, p.47] It follows from the above that the human capital in an organization is an tangible asset of a special, barely formalized nature. On the one hand, a business’s qualities are inseparable from its employees – that is, these qualities belong to employees on the basis of property and are not real objects. On the other hand, their creative manifestation has an impact on the economic and social activities of a marine enterprise. The modern manager must possess basic socio-psychological culture and be able to diagnose not only the personal characteristics of candidate, but also his general capabilities, such as creativity (i.e., the ability to think in an unconventional way and find original and effective ways to solve problems).

REFERENCES

1. Креативность [Электронный ресурс] «Энциклопедия карьеры» / Электрон. статья. – Режим доступа: http://planetahr.ru/publication/1542./Creativity [Internet-portal] “Career encyclopedia”/electronic article 2. Степанов, С. О натурах творческих [Электронный ресурс]: – Режим доступа: http://psy.1september.ru/article.php?ID=200104612./ S.Stepanov. About creative natures [Internet-portal] 3. Дружинин, В.Н. Психология общих способностей / В.Н. Дружинин. – СПб: Питер, 1999. – 368 с./Druzhinin V.N. The psychology of general capabilities, SPb:Pieter, 1999.-368 p. 4. Богоявленская, Д.Б. Творческая личность: ее диагностика и поддержка // Психологическая служба вуза: принципы, опыт работы: – М., 1993. – С. 78- 79./Bogoyavlenskaya D.B. Creative personality: its diagnostics and support//University psychology service: principles, working experience, pp.78-79 5. Батоврина, Е.В. На пути к достижению эффективности управленца: способности как факторы успеха управленческой деятельности // Современные гуманитарные исследования. – 2006. – № 1. – C.17 – 18./Batovrina E.V. On the way to achievement of managerial efficiency: capabilities as the factors of success in the activities of manager// Modern humanitarian researches. – 2006. - №1, p.17 6. Холодная, М.А. Психология интеллекта. Парадоксы исследования / М.А. Холодная. – СПб.: Питер, 2002. – 272 с./ Kholodnaya M.A. Intellect psychology. Paradoxes of the study/ M.A. Kholodnaya. – Spb.:Pieter, 2002. – 272 p. 7. Богоявленская, Д.Б. Психология творческих способностей / Д.Б. Богоявленская. – М.: Академия, 2002. – 320 с./ Bogoyavlenskaya D.B. The psychology of creative abilities/ D.B.Bogoyavlenskaya.- M.: Academy, 2002. – 320 p. 8. Матвеев, А. Креативность: мысли вслух [Электронный ресурс]. – Режим доступа: http://arsvitae.ru/cgi-bin/cm/get_doc.fpl?doc_id=71./ Matveev A. Creativity: the thoughts aloud [Internet-portal] 9. Стёганцев, А.В. Стратегическое управление персоналом в области продаж [Электронный ресурс] / Электрон. статья. «Финансовый бизнес». – Режим доступа: http:// stiogantsev.ru/st/v-r_prodav_bud.html#literat./ Stiogantsev A.V. Strategic control of sales personnel [Internet-portal] / Electronic article. “Financial business” 10. В жизни всегда есть место творчеству: нестандартные приемы развития сотрудников [Электронный ресурс] // Кадровое дело. – №2, Февраль 2008. Электрон. статья. – Режим доступа: http://hr-anticrisis.ru/node/99. / There is always the place for creation in the life: nonstandard methods of employees’ development [Internet-portal]// Personnel affair.- №2, February 2008. Electronic article 11. Майнцер, К. Сложность бросает нам вызов в XXI веке; динамика и самоорганизация в век глобализации / К. Майнцер. – М: КомКнига, 2006. – 120 с./ Meintser K. Complexity challenges us in the twenty-first century; dynamics and self- organization in the age of globalization / K.Meintser. – M: KomKniga, 2006, 120 p.

SIMULATION OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS FOR TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS PROCESSES MANAGEMENT USING FUZZY NEURAL NETWORK TECHNOLOGIES

Natalia G.Levchenko

A method of modeling poorly formalized process is proposed, which considers not only quantitative estimates, but the quality of not clearly defined and non-formalizable criteria and interlinks as well. The model has been developed for the follow-up process evaluation; it predicts process behavior to optimize overall performance. The method is based on the technology of fuzzy neural networks.

Keywords: transport and logistics process, information system for management, simulation modeling, logical-linguistic models, intellectual control, neural network

Planning, organization, management and control of cargo delivery processes require the presence of effective information system. It is the information that comes in advance, accompanies and completes cargo operations processes, thus making possible the optimization of all transport and logistics chains and interactions, especially in the face of uncertainty. The effectiveness of an information system depends on the quality of processing huge amounts of data, which includes a description of business processes, information flows and their parameters, takes into account internal and external environment, and further provides targeted analysis - options for possible management decisions. A powerful intellectual tool is necessary for data processing of this scale. An AI-based simulation model of information system for transport and logistics processes management can be a required tool, which utilizes the neural networks and mathematical apparatus of fuzzy inference. In traditional object control diagram (Figure 1) the n values of inputs xzi which can be assessed at any time, and r values xnj which are either non- assessable (or too expensive for processing) affect the controlled process.

xn1 xn2 ... xnr

xz q 1 Object 1 xz q 2 Q=f(XZ,SU,XN) 2 ......

xzn qm

su1 su2 ... suk

Control system SU =F(XZ, Q)

DTL

Figure 1. Traditional object control diagram

Totally, inputs - (n + r) and m outputs - qi. Between the input vector and Q output vector there is some relationship Q = f (XZ, XN). It is important to get certain values of Q for any XZ and XN when managing the object. If XZ and XN are not controlled, it is necessary to create a control system that can affect Q value by means of special control actions SU. In other words, we obtain the relation Q = f (XZ, SU, XN). This means that by implementing some dependence SU = F (XZ, Q), one can estimate the desired control actions with the object. You can also make adjustments to the operation of the control system in the form of KZ correction vector. Thus, in order to construct an efficient control system, it is necessary to know two things. Firstly, a plurality of preferred Q vector values, which means understanding the object mission. Secondly, how a mapping f(.) describing the operation of the object is set. Thus, it is necessary to know the description of an object, i.e, its structure and functioning, and the purpose of its existence to formulate a criterion for management, which embodies the requirements for the control system. Mapping F is the criterion for object management. It may be either maximizing or minimizing of any vector Q values, keeping them in certain specified limits, avoiding certain combinations of these values, prohibiting the appearance of certain time sequences of vector Q values, etc. As a result, the following logical chain is formulated: "Description of the object - Description of the purpose of an object management – Creation of management criteria - Design and construction of the object management system." The weak link in this chain is to identify the object of control and as a consequence, to correctly formulate its management criteria. Especially, if the object management systems are ill-defined or semi-structured.

The uncertainties in the transport process also arise from the fact that we still do not know all its laws and patterns. Furthermore, the people who pursue their own personal interests, goals and have different mentality become a powerful factor influencing the control object (the process of transportation), or its structural elements. When building the model it was necessary to take into account the imprecise knowledge, which refers to the subjective assessment category, and cannot be interpreted as completely true or false, or which reliability is expressed by intermediate values. Therefore it is necessary to build a simulation model, which will provide the enterprise leadership the capability to correctly assess current strengths and weaknesses, as well as to find additional capacity. Besides, such model will be able to find, visualize and record the ready options for management decisions under uncertain conditions. Transport and logistics process is a complex object for modeling. It is obvious from the broad range of operations performed in its course of activities: the chartering of vessels and calculation of freight; receiving and delivery of goods; cargo handling; insurance; Customs declaration of commodities; preparation of necessary shipping documents; conclusion of the contract of carriage with the transport company; calculations for the transportation of cargo; consultations on accounting and forwarding operations; informing the participants of the transport process and others. It is very difficult (and sometimes simply impossible) to describe the behavior of the transportation process as well as to choose one or another scheme of formalization because the basic input information is fuzzy. The information coming during the process is often incomplete or unclear. Factors such as the reliability of the supplier, the insurer or cargo carrier, a competence of the person responsible for the cargo safety during transport, the technical condition of vehicles, compliance with delivery schedule, weather conditions, etc. are naturally imprecise. Thus, the necessity of the transition from the classical models of control theory to the logical-linguistic models is obvious. The latter use logical data converting means provided in linguistic form. A simulation method using fuzzy neural network technology has been chosen. Figure 2 shows the test simulation of logistics operation – multimodal transportation of rice consignment from the port of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam to Moscow, Russia. The factors evaluating and influencing the process of transportation and their relationship were identified as part of this test simulation. Using the experience of the expert group and taking into account unclear factors, the fuzzy neural network model of management information system of transport and logistics process can

1. Conditions of uploading from Shipper Evaluation of Input: 1. Readiness time for cargo loading effectiveness 2. Damage, losses 1

2. Sea freight Input 1. Process cost 2. Possibility of shipment Evaluation of 3. Losses effectiveness 4. Time of delivery 2

5. Carrier reliability

3. Port and Terminal capabilities Evaluation of Input: 1. Terminal capabilities, free spaces in port effectiveness 2. Process cost 3

3. Capacity

4. Road delivery Evaluation of Input: 1. Process cost 2. Waiting time for cargo shipment effectiveness

3. Carrier reliability 4

Accumulating module Accumulating Assessment of effectiveness of Assessment

5. Unload and warehouse storage Input: 1. Storage spaces Evaluation of 2. Process cost effectiveness 3. Losses 5 4. Capacity

6. Cargo consolidation, railroad delivery Input: 1. Process cost Evaluation of 2. Losses, damage of cargo effectiveness 3. Time underway

4. Capacity 6

be composed of six modules, each of which implements one block of a fuzzy neural network. And the seventh module in this model is the accumulation of all previous modules, whose input data is the outputs of modules 1 through 6. Further, basing on the knowledge of the expert group eight options for transportation and its basic operations were identified. A certain number of factors is allocated in each variant, arranged by importance / priority of each. These factors influence the efficiency of both the process in a separate block, and the entire transportation process. A specific set of criteria was allocated, which can be further added / modified

46 without affecting the system itself or the method used, while improving quality "portrait" of the object of study. The mathematical description of the model of management information system of transport and logistics process can be represented as follows: ypr = F (yk) or ypr = F (O (xj), M (xj), P (xj), A (xj), S (xj), Z (xj)), (1) where ypr - assessment of the effectiveness of transport; "The conditions of shipment from the supplier”: y1 = O (xj), where j = 1, 2; "Sea freight”: y2 = M (xj), where j = 3, 4, 5, 6, 7; "Port and terminal capabilities”: y3 = P (xj), where j = 8, 9, 10; "Road delivery”: y4 = A (xj), where j = 11, 12, 13; "Unloading and warehousing”: y5 = S (xj), where j = 14, 15, 16, 17; "Cargo consolidation, railroad delivery”: y6 = Z (xj), where j = 18,19, 20, 21, where xj - is the input variables of each fuzzy neural network modules which are all different factors - a qualitative characteristics of a single block of the process; yk - the output of each of these six modules - evaluation of the k-block effectiveness of the process, where k = 1,2 ... 6 - corresponding to the unit number. Each input / output linguistic variable corresponds to the following five terms: bad; below average; medium; good; excellent (or no operation), which can be universally set from 0 to 1. µ(x) bad below average medium good excellent 1

0 0 10 X Fig. 2 – Diagram of fuzzy sets corresponding the terms of linguistic variables of seven modules of the transportation model

For example, the term "Poor" will have a value different from the membership function values from 0 to about 2, and so on. Given that in the framework of fuzzy zone of each term the law of change for each variable is clearly non-linear, Gaussian shape of membership functions has been selected. Total input variables number is 168: twenty-one variables in each of the eight shipping modes. The development of the model, its software implementation and research was carried out by means of MATLAB Fuzzy Logic Toolbox in the form of

47 an adaptive system of neuro-fuzzy output. To implement the fuzzy output Sugeno method was used. Figure 3 shows the fuzzy neural network model of the control system of transport and logistics process.

1. Conditions of uploading from Shipper Evaluation of Cargo readiness for uploading ANFIS effectiveness 1 1 Losses, damage (Sugeno)

2. Sea freight Process cost Shipping possibility Evaluation of effectiveness 2 Losses ANFIS (Sugeno) Time of delivery Carrier reliability

3. Port and Terminal capabilities Terminal capabilities, free space in port Evaluation of effectiveness 3 Process cost ANFIS Accumulating module (Sugeno) Capacity Evaluation of ANFIS effectiveness 4. Road delivery (Сугено) Process cost Evaluation of effectiveness 4 Waiting time for cargo shipment ANFIS (Sugeno) Carrier reliability

5. Unloading and Warehousing Storage spaces Evaluation of Process cost ANFIS effectiveness 5 Losses (Sugeno) Capacity

6. Cargo consolidation, railroad delivery Process cost Evaluation of Damage, losses ANFIS effectiveness 6 Time underway (Sugeno) Capacity

Fig.3. FNN model of CS TLP

Samples were formed for educating the fuzzy neural network, with due considering of relationship and importance of factors relative to each other in each unit process. Education process for the network was done with error

48 back propagation method. The value of the level of error was set to 0, the number of training cycles - 100. The rule base of fuzzy productions, made on the basis of expert assessments, consists of 543 (five hundred and forty three) rules. Exhaustive search when preparing the rules would be equal to several tens of thousands. In the process of educating the fuzzy neural network will correct initially set priorities, build graphs of membership functions, weight compensate possible differences in expert evaluations. Education of hybrid network was made in stages, several samples in a single step, gradually increasing the amount of data to avoid the growth of error on the test set.

To compare the results, issued by the FNN model with expert reviews the formula (2), (3) were used. Absolute error Δx = | xmodel - xtest | (2) Relative error δx = (| xmodel - xtest |) / xtest. (3) Comparing the results of training and testing of fuzzy neural network for all seven modules with corresponding estimates of experts, it can be concluded that the model for all eight of shipping options has been successfully educated. Verification results show almost exact match performance effectiveness evaluations. Absolute error for modeling in each of the seven modules ranges: 0 ≤Δx≤ 0.72. The relative error of each of seven modules model ranges: 0.18 ≤δh≤ 0 (or from 0% to 18%).

Fig. 4 - Histogram of results of educating and testing of the second module in the eight values of the training sample (6, 6.1, ..., 6.7) of the transportation process 6

As an example one of the histograms (Figure 4) shows a nearly exact match evaluating the effectiveness # 2 issued by the model with the appropriate expertise value. Factor analysis was conducted on the simulation model of a real transport and logistics task, which revealed the degree of sensitivity of the model to changes in the values of the factors. According to experts, the

49 analysis showed that the model adequately responds to changes in the factors and is ready for use in working time mode. To construct variants of factor analysis model real examples from practice transport and logistics company "DDP Service", Vladivostok were used. For example, one of 23 tables and corresponding histogram are given below (Table 1, Figure 5). To analyze the results a quantity relative comparison rate was introduced. , (4) where hnorm - numerical value of the term of a linguistic variable corresponding to the factor being analyzed, in normal transportation mode, xogr - numerical value of the term of a linguistic variable corresponding to the same factors, but within certain value limits. As a result, a factor analysis on accumulating unit revealed a high degree of sensitivity of the model to changes in the values of the factor "Unloading and storage" on transport schemes 3, 4, 7, 8. The transport scheme 6 proved to be very insensitive to factor changes. Scheme 7 is more sensitive. This conclusion was confirmed by the experts.

№ Results for limited

evaluation of effectiveness 5

No Not

l) t more than 2 less than 9

- -

)

модель

Evaluation Evaluation of Evaluation of Evaluation of Evaluation of Evaluation of Evaluation of Evaluation of Evaluation of Evaluati Evaluati ОВСр ОВСр

(

effectiveness 1 effectiveness 2 effectiveness 3 effectiveness 4 effectiveness 5 effectiveness 6 effectiveness (experts) effectiveness (mode effectiveness on ctiveness of (model) effe on ctiveness of (model) effe % 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 1 3 0 - 7 9 3 3 4 4 0 5 5 4 ,69 ,69 81 ,22 6 3 1 5 2 - 7 4 .1 5 5 4 0 4 6 5 ,06 ,03 60 ,36 5 3 1 4 1 - 7 6 .2 3 3 4 0 5 5 4 ,22 ,98 53 ,14 9 3 1 3 1 - 6 7 .3 5 4 3 0 4 6 4 ,77 ,15 69 ,66 7 3 1 4 1 - 7 7 .4 3 4 4 0 4 5 4 ,23 ,99 53 ,24 1 3 1 5 2 - 8 6 .5 5 5 3 0 4 6 5 ,23 ,03 61 ,54 3 3 1 4 2 - 7 5 .6 7 3 4 0 5 6 5 ,78 ,05 57 ,21 1 3 1 5 2 - 7 4 .7 9 4 4 0 5 6 5 ,01 ,12 58 ,01 0 3 1 5 2 - 6 3 .8 7 4 4 0 4 5 5 ,06 ,16 57 ,79 4 3 1 4 2 - 6 4 .9 9 5 4 0 4 6 5 ,89 ,01 59 ,94 2 3 1 5 1 - 7 4 .10 7 3 4 0 4 5 5 ,01 ,97 61 ,02 0 3 1 5 2 - 7 4 .11 9 4 3 0 4 6 5 ,14 ,56 50 ,24 1

Fig. 5 - Histogram of factor analysis on accumulating module as an example of twelve values of the output variables (3, 3.2, ... 3.22) of transport scheme #3

Factor analysis showed that the model responds to changes in input variables according to expert estimates for each application and is ready for use in regular mode. The classic criteria, maximin, optimistic, neutral recommended for management decision making in the face of uncertainty were used for the optimization of transport and logistics process. These three criteria are used to determine the optimal solutions basing on calculated by the model evaluation values of process efficiency. The left side of Table 2 shows the final evaluation of the effectiveness of all eight transportation schemes. The inputs to six modules of the model were factors influencing the process of each of the eight transport schemes behaving normally. For example, the table shows the twelve variations of the output values of performance evaluations that the model had calculated on a small range of input values and its combinations. In this case, experts were determining the values of these factors without assuming any critical situations. In the right part of Table 2 the optimal values of effectiveness evaluations identified according to three criteria of optimality are shown.

Table 2. Data analysis for selection of management solutions № Evaluation of effectiveness Q Q Q ММ H N 1 6 6 5 5 6 5 7 6 7 7 6 7 5 7 6 .15 .78 .83 .77 .15 .98 .15 .93 .12 .01 .96 .23 .77 .23 .59 2 7 7 6 7 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 8 6 8 7 .12 .23 .59 .18 .01 .93 .4 .1 .22 .89 .01 .33 .59 .33 .33 3 3 5 4 3 4 5 4 5 5 4 5 5 3 5 4 .69 .06 .22 .77 .23 .23 .78 .01 .06 .89 .01 .14 .69 .23 .67 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 5 4 6 5

.85 .96 .06 .13 .32 .02 .03 .96 .01 .78 .36 .14 .78 .32 .30 5 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 8 .80 .96 .01 .12 .36 .01 .95 .36 .36 .69 .13 .12 .69 .36 .16 6 8 9 9 1 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 1 8 1 9 .98 .89 .36 0.3 .01 .89 .16 .01 .87 .89 .03 0.2 .87 0.3 .47 7 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 1 3 2 .96 .76 .01 .78 .83 .06 .07 .23 .16 .25 .96 .01 .83 .25 .84 8 3 3 4 3 2 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 4 3 .21 .78 .21 .77 .89 .78 .96 .23 .21 .02 .75 .78 .89 .23 .80

According to the analysis of possible solutions in standard situation decision makers should select scheme #6 for cargo transportation since all three criteria of the scheme show the best results (Figure 6).

Moscow: Unload at Customer’s warehouse Railroad delivery Vladivostok, Fishery port: Unload at open Road transport storage area and unload at warehouse

Ho Chi Ming, Vietnam: Sea freight Shipper SINOKOR warehouse containers

Fig. 6. Transportation scheme #6

In case the experts foresee any critical situation, it is necessary to take into account the changes affecting the transport and logistics process. The model allows to calculate all possible situations, to give a forecast, helping managers to choose the best solution in terms of any emergency situation or uncertainty. One of the methods of evolutionary modeling - a genetic algorithm based on the process of crossing, crossover, mutation and natural selection was also used as an optimization method. The ability to produce rational decisions both on continuous and discrete sets of parameters is a peculiar feature of evolutionary modeling. The feasibility of the method is explained by difficulties with formalizing the problem and the need to get a result in real time to make a decision. Also, the genetic algorithm is invariant to the scale of the problem. It allows you to

52 solve problems that have no clear algorithms for solution. Its high speed is provided by solving algorithm parallelism because each object within population can be processed independently. Various methods used for finding optimal solutions showed similar results, but genetic algorithm was faster.

Key findings and conclusions: 1. The analysis of the basic properties and characteristics of dynamic, poorly formalized and semistructured control object, which is the transport and logistics process, was successfully accomplished. 2. A fuzzy neural network modeling method was proposed for the process, taking into account not only quantitative estimates, but also qualitative, not clearly defined and non- formalizable criteria and the interconnections between them. 3. The proposed modular architecture for building fuzzy neural network model can be extended with integration of additional modules to enhance your management information system, to increase its capacity by higher rate of detailing the simulated process. 4. A set of influencing factors in each module can be added in the course of developing the model without affecting the system performance (method of solution), but qualitatively improving the "portrait" of the object of study - information management system of transport and logistics process. 5. A method for building a knowledge base for the model taking into account not only the quantitative estimates, but also qualitative, not clearly defined and non- formalizable criteria and the interconnections between them was also developed. 6. Factor analysis revealed a high degree of sensitivity of the simulation model to changes in the values of the factors. According to experts, the analysis showed that the model adequately responds to changes in factors. 7. The methods of application of the model for analysis of the situation and the behavior of interacting elements, as well as providing dynamically monitoring and diagnostic management processes, simulation of real events and processes, prediction and prevention of critical situations were developed and tested. 8. It has been determined that the problem of finding the optimal solutions using the proposed model is multifactorial, has many criteria and is related to discrete optimization problems. Therefore, the search for optimal solution was carried out in two directions. First - full search of possible solutions, i.e, determination of optimal decisions on three criteria of optimality: maximin, optimistic and neutral, corresponding to the classical method of determining the optimal logistics solutions in the face of

53 uncertainty. Second – to apply the genetic algorythm, one of the methods of evolutionary modeling to search for the optimal solution. 9. A simulation model is suitable for further study of the real transportation and logistics process; for predicting its behavior, optimizing performance as well as for analyzing the different situations and behavior of interacting elements. 10. The methods of generating the most rational management decisions under uncertainty using either a model of complete listing of possible solutions, or by means of a genetic algorithm have been developed. 11. A simulation model of transport and logistics process can be used for monitoring and checking of administrative decisions in a dynamic mode, as it allows simulating real events and processes to predict and prevent critical situations.

ROBUST STABILITY OF SHIP COURSE CONTROL SYSTEM

Elena B. Osokina, Alexander A. Dyda

This article explores the usage of linear models of marine moving objects with variable parameters and the problems of systems robust stability. The examples of robust stability analysis for ship control systems are considered.

Keywords: Hurwitz determinant, linear models, marine moving objects, Kharitonov’s polynomial, robust stability.

Introduction. Marine moving objects (MMO) as controlled objects certainly are complex systems, due to their constructive features and operating conditions. Fully nonlinear multivariable mathematical models of MMO are difficult for practical application because of their complexity. Linearization and tasks decomposition into separate parts gives the opportunity to develop technical control schemes. Parameters of the MMO are characterized by uncertainty, due to possible measurement errors, changes of technical state object and external perturbations. Because the parameters of the controlled object are uncertain and only the ranges of possible changes of parameters are know, to analyze the stability of MMO control systems, it is possible to use interval mathematical models. From practical point of view, an important property of MMO control systems is its robustness, i.e. system stability maintaining for all parameters values from given ranges[1]. K. L. Kharitonov had formulated necessary and sufficient conditions for stability of interval polynomials. His theorem is true if the coefficients of the characteristic polynomial are changed at predetermined intervals independently. The number of Kharitonov’s polynomials used to determine the stability depends on their degree, i.e., for low degree polynomials, it is sufficient to check only some of them. For polynomials of the third, fourth and fifth degrees, it takes to check the stability of one, two and first three polynomials, respectively [3]. Linear models. Consider simple linear models of ship course control know as Nomoto’s modals of first (1) and the second (2) orders:

T (1)

(2),

where T1, and – time constants; turn ratio on the course, angular velocity (yaw rate) , . For checking the robust stability of systems using these linear models for varying parameters, intervals of their changes must determined. On Fig.1. the scheme of ship course control system with PID-regulator is given. The controlled object is presented by 1-st order Nomoto’s model.

Fig.1. Control system with 1-st order Nomoto’s model

Assume that the system uses a traditional PID controller. Then the overall transfer function of the open-loop system is equal to (3):

(3)

To determine the stability of MMO using a linear model of Nomoto 1- st order, initially it needs to form the following characteristic equation:

(4)

For the coefficients of the characteristic equation, calculate the determinants of Hurwitz matrix [3]:

In this equation a0=T; a1= ; a2= ; a3= Thus, the Hurwitz matrix takes the form:

(5)

According to the Hurwitz criterion, for stability it is necessary and sufficient that all diagonal determinants of Hurwitz must be positive. Simple calculations give:

(6)

As a consequence, the stability condition can be rewritten as:

or: (7)

On Fig.2. the scheme of ship course control system with PID-regulator is given. The controlled object is presented by 2-nd order Nomoto’s model.

Fig.2. Control system with 2-nd order Nomoto’s model

In this case, using the traditional PID controller, the characteristic equation has the form:

(8)

Taking 1* 2=ТХ; 1+ 2=Т⅀ , one gets :

In this equation: a0= ; a1= ; a2= ; a3= ; a4=Ki, the Hurwitz matrix takes the form:

(9)

For 2-nd order Nomoto’s model, according to the criterion of Hurwitz, determinants must be positive:

(10)

Stability of control systems with interval ship model. In the taken mathematical models, ship parameters can vary considerably. The theorem of Kharitonov allows evaluation the stability of the control system in such a situation. Suppose that first order Nomoto’s model (Fig.1) has the following parameters Т= Other components of the coefficients remain constant: Kp=1,5; Кi=0,005; Kd= 1. As shown in [3], in this case, the stability of the only first Kharitonov’s polynomial P1(s) should be analyzed:

Matrix for the equation with interval coefficients is constructed for P1 (s) and the Hurwitz determinants are computed:

(11)

Taking into account the accepted intervals, one has:

= 0,0006

The resulting robust stability condition takes the form:

The result for modeling in MATLAB for T=1,8; Kc=0,5; is given in (Fig.3).

Fig.3. Transient process in control system

For control system with 2-nd order Nomoto’s (Fig.2) the first two Kharitonov’s polynomials should be analyzed:

;

For the interval equation coefficients, matrices are constructed for P1 (s), P2 (s) and the Hurwitz determinants are computed: Thus, for P1 (s):

= (12)

for P2 (s):

= (13)

As a consequence, the robust stability condition in ∆2 for P1 can be written in the form:

in ∆3

for P2, in ∆2

in ∆3

Suppose, , , Then interval coefficients a0=Тx = [36,54; 114,8], a1=Т⅀ = [22,1; 36,3]. Coefficients a2, a3, a4 depend on KC = [0,15; 0,5]. Other components of the coefficients remain constant: Kp= 0,9; Кi= 0,003; Kd= 0,7. For PID regulator, it takes taking place for P1 (s):

for P2 (s):

Evidently, the robust stability conditions for considered interval ship model are satisfied. For case of PI regulator, one has for P1 (s):

for P2 (s):

Again, the conditions of robust stability are satisfied.

When using a P – regulator, the characteristic equation takes the form:

For equation of the third order, consideration only of the first Kharitonov’s polynomial is sufficient:

For this case Hurwitz matrix is equal:

Taking into account the accepted interval parameters and Kr = 0,6; one has:

2,6 = 0,8 Robust stability conditions satisfied.

For PD-regulator, characteristic equation takes the form:

As above, Hurwitz matrix is formed:

For Kp= 0,9; Kd=0,7, the appropriate determinants are equal:

271,69 =122,26

As seen, the system is robust stable.

Fig.4 illustrates the control process with P- regulator Kp=0,9.

Fig.4. The system transient process for case of P- regulator

Conclusions. Thus, for control systems design, characterized by the essential parameters changes within wide ranges, the Kharitonov’s theorem is used as an effective tool for theoretical analysis of robust stability of the system.

REFERENCES

1. Лукомский Ю. А. и др. Навигация и управление движением судов: учебник. - СПб. : Элмор, 2002. - 360 с. : ил. /Lukomsky Y.A. &others. Navigation and vessel traffic management: manual.- SPt.: Elmor, 2002.-360 pp.: illustrations. 2. Харитонов В. Л. Об асимптотической устойчивости положения равновесия семейства систем линейных дифференциальных уравнений// Дифференциальные уравнения. 1978. № 11. — с.2086–2088./Kharitonov V.L. About asymptotic stability of the equilibrium position of the group of systems of linear differential equations//Differential equations.1978. №11.-pp.2086-2088. 3. Ким Д. П. Теория автоматического управления. Т. 1. Линейные системы. - М.: ФИЗМАТЛИТ, 2003. - 288 с./ Kim D.P. Theory of automatic control. V.1.Linear systems.-M.:PHYSMATLIT, 2003. – 288 p.

KOREAN-JAPANESE DISCORD CONCERNING THE LIANCOURT ISLANDS

Nikolai I. Pereslavtsev

This article discusses the reasons behind the dispute between Korea and Japan over the Liancourt islands located in the Sea of Japan, makes a detailed analysis of the arguments and positions of each of the parties from a historical, legal and economic point of view, and suggests ways and means to solve the problem taking into account the interests of international cooperation and security in the region.

Keywords: Dokdo, Takeshima, Liancourt, islands, Japan, Korean Peninsula, International Court of Justice

The islands, called in Korean “Dokdo” (“Lonely”) and in Japanese “Takeshima” (“Bamboo”), are situated 217 km from the Korean Peninsula and 212 km from Japan and consist of two volcanic islands, located quite near to each other and named “Western” and “Eastern”, and 35 small rocks [7]. The total area is 187 450 square km, approximately 7 football fields. In point of fact both islands are just small rocky pieces of land, in which there are no significant natural reserves of fresh water, but the plants grow and sea birds nidificate. There is also the European designation of the archipelago - "Liancourt" (named after the French ship whose crew discovered and put the island on the map in 1849), and we’ll call it so from now onwards for the sake of neutrality.

The view of Liancourt from Ullueungdo island

The nearest territories, the Korean Ullueungdo island and Japanese Oki island, are respectively located within 87 km (it can be seen with the naked eye on a clear day) and 157 km. In Korea the Liancourt Islands are considered part of Ulleung County, prov. North. Gyeongnam. Japan classifies them as part of the administrative district Oki, Shimane Prefecture [7]. Contesting the inclusion of a given territory, both sides put forward historically based arguments. To summarize their detailed and thorough analysis,

65 beginning in the middle ages, would take a lot of time. Let's just say that periodic voyages to certain lands and even regular production of land and marine resources, in our opinion, do yet not mean legally and permanently secured sovereignty or rights to such sovereignty over a particular territory. This thesis can be explained by example of former American possessions of European countries (including Alaska, formerly owned by Russia). Nobody claims they should be returned although at one time they were discovered, developed and even quite effectively ruled by Europeans. In other words, from a logical point of view, it is legal and reasonable to justify this position on territorial jurisdiction only on the basis of principles of international law and multilateral and bilateral agreements. Therefore, we will not be discussing ancient and quite distant times and restrict our consideration of the Korean and Japanese arguments concerning the Liancourt islands to the period after the Second World War. On January 29, SCAPIN (Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers Instruction Note) No. 677 was issued, which defines the boundaries of the administrative sovereignty of the Japanese government after their surrender in 1945. According to paragraph 3 of this well known and widely cited document, “Japan is defined to include four main islands (Hokkaido, Honshu, Kyushu and Shikoku) and approximately 1,000 smaller adjacent islands, excluding (modern names): a) Ullueungdo island, Liancourt Rocks, Cheju island… в) Kuril islands, including Habomai and Shikotan” [8].

Map, attached to SCAPIN No.677

In its formulations, SCAPIN № 677 was based on Art. 8 of the Potsdam Declaration of July 26, 1945: "... Japanese sovereignty shall be limited to the islands of Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku and such minor islands as we determine [15]."

The Japanese pay attention to the fact that SCAP (Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers) had no authority to make decisions about Japan’s territory, so it means that these decisions are not legally binding. But, as can be seen from the above, SCAP did not make these decisions, but just followed the instructions provided by the heads of its member states.

And the heads of the victorious powers had the right to take such steps (i.e. the definition of territory, being under the jurisdiction of the defeated aggressive country) because they were based on Art. 107 of the UN Charter adopted in April, 1945 [22]. Article 107 of the UN Charter points out that “nothing in the present Charter shall invalidate or preclude action, in relation to any state which during the Second World War has been an enemy of any signatory to the present Charter, taken or authorized as a result of that war by the Governments having responsibility for such action”. Moreover, according to the wording of Article 103, "in the event of a conflict between the obligations of the Members of the United Nations under the present Charter and their obligations under any other international agreement, their obligations under the present Charter shall prevail”. It is important to note that at the signing of unconditional surrender in September 1945, Japan had fully recognized the Potsdam Declaration and pledged to take steps to implement it. Therefore, and proceeding from the concept of "surrender", Japan at that time had fully lost international legal rights, including the base and the opportunity to discuss the terms of peace dictated to it, and the right to describe the foreign occupation as "illegal". The former Japanese state was dismantled and in its place – and now subject to international law - the modern Japan appeared, which could not claim to be the owner of territories, in addition to those that were granted by the victorious powers. Finally, after joining the UN in 1956, Japan has committed itself to respect and compliance with UN Charters, including the above-mentioned articles. However, formally speaking, UN Charters are not contested in Japan. That is why so much attention is paid to the distortion of the Soviet-Japanese War of 1945 (supposedly the Soviet Union without any moral or legal grounds attacked Japan), and it is often noted that Korea emerged as a state only in 1948 and cannot claim the privileges of the victorious powers. The San Francisco Peace Treaty of 1951 as a whole continued the course of implementation of the measures outlined by The Cairo and Potsdam Declarations. It lists the territories that Japan should abandon, but contains no mention of the Liancourt islands [27]. So, it is concluded in Tokyo on this basis that the islands are considered to belong to Japan. It is difficult to agree entirely with this conclusion. Firstly, immediately after the war, the archipelago had been separated from the rest of Japan’s territory and was under the control of the US Armed Forces Military Command [9]. Special legal documents for the transfer of the Liancourt islands to Japan (as in the later case of Okinawa) were not issued.

Secondly, Korean researchers claim that the islands were transferred by United States to the Republic of Korea since its establishment in 1948 [9]. Finally, it is known that in 1947 (that is to say, when Japan was still classified as a country with limited sovereignty) Tokyo asked the government of the United States to recognize Liancourt islands as part of Japan. The US did not agree and referred to the Act of Surrender, 1945, according to which Japan had waived territories as being out of its control [11]. However, in 1950 war broke out on the Korean Peninsula where Japan had been playing the role of a rear base for American troops. On the other hand, the Republic of Korea was in a very difficult position as a nation - being at war with a bankrupt economy and dim prospects of further existence. Under these circumstances, it is understandable why the United States had started to consider an alliance with Tokyo as more promising for their short-term plans and made Japan an implicit, but nevertheless, quite obvious concession on Liancourt. While preparing a draft of the San Francisco Peace Treaty with Japan, in the summer of 1951, Americans submitted it to the Korean side. The Koreans requested that the US modify the treaty to include text about Japan’s renunciation of the Liancourt islands, which were part of Korea prior to its annexation by Japan. The United States, represented by the Secretary of State, sent the following reply: “As regards the island of Dokdo, otherwise known as Takeshima or Liancourt Rocks, this normally uninhabited rock formation was according to our information never treated as part of Korea and, since about 1905, has been under the jurisdiction of the Oki Islands Branch Office of Shimane Prefecture of Japan. The island does not appear ever before to have been claimed by Korea [23]." Thus, Japan’s renunciation of the Liancourt islands is not mentioned in the San Francisco Peace Treaty. On these grounds, Japanese researchers claim that this document confirmed status of the archipelago as Japan’s possession. The Korean side says that although it fully respects the decisions of the Allied Powers about Japan, Korea hasn’t signed the San Francisco Peace Treaty [11]. To list in the text of the treaty’s draft all the names of the numerous islands around the Korean Peninsula simply was not necessary, and the answer of the United States to Seoul reflects only their own position, which can vary on the basis of these or other circumstances, but not the collective opinion of the Allied Powers [3]. In addition, the principles of international law are usually determined on a multilateral basis and not on the basis of the assessment of one single country. Korea also points to Japan’s inconsistency. On the one hand, Japan, referring to the US’s reservations1 before the ratification of San Francisco Peace Treaty or other superficial explanations (for example, that the four southern islands are not the part of Kuril archipelago), disputes the status of Kuril islands, which are specified in the text of the treaty and are transferred to Russia after the Second World War. On

1 Provided that the provisions of the treaty did not mean recognition of any rights or claims of the USSR for the territories that belonged to Japan on December 7, 1941, which would impair the rights and legal base of Japan for these territories, as well as recognition in favor of the USSR of any provision concerning Japan in the Yalta agreement. 68 the other hand, they unconditionally consider as their own possession the Liancourt islands, which are not specified in the text of the Treaty [12].

The coast of one of Liancourt islands On January 18, 1952, the then President of the Republic of Korea, Syngman Rhee, signed the "Declaration about Sea Sovereignty" and thus declared the enactment of the so-called restrictive "line of peace" on the Korean Peninsula, which has been designated in such a way as to included Liancourt within the Korean water area. Its main provision was a ban on fishing within a delineated water area from all non-Korean ships in order to protect the marine resources of East Sea/Sea of Japan. The United States and Japan opposed this declaration, also by reason of the islands’ inclusion in the forbidden sector. But the American protest against this "line of peace" was, so to say, formal. For example, in March 1953, the Americans finally abandoned further use of Liancourt as a military test site [3] and recommended that Japan resume fishery in this area. But at the same time they pointed out that citizens of the Republic of Korea also made a living by extracting marine resources in this region[13]. As another example, in 1954 US Ambassador of the United Nations Van Fleet visited Seoul and advised the South Korean government to decide the question about the archipelago together with Tokyo in the International Court of Justice, taking into account Japan’s rights to possess it [13]. However, the Korean side silently ignored all these recommendations and in July of 1954 deployed a small Coast Guard garrison to the islands and began in the most effective manner - that is to say, by force - to show the Japanese that, from a Korean point of view, the question of possession of the archipelago had been decided. Until the conclusion of the bilateral "Basic Treaty" on June 22, 1965, under which diplomatic relations were established and the “line of peace” was abolished, South Koreans captured (also in the area of Liancourt) 328 Japanese vessels and arrested 3929 Japanese nationals for violation of the “line of peace” [26]. While preparing the "Basic Treaty," Korea and Japan evaded the question of the islands, so they absolutely are not mentioned there. Surely, the dispute was not closed, and since then it has continued in "low intensity" mode with periodic exacerbations and sharp recriminations. Seoul’s perspective has, for instance,

69 manifested in repeated protests against wordings in Japanese history textbooks or demonstrative steps, such as the decision to celebrate each year on February 22 as "Takeshima Day2". Tokyo’s reaction has been similar - in particular in 2012 after an inspection visit of President Lee Myung-bak to the islands. In 1954, 1962 and 2012 Japan proposed to Seoul that the issue of the islands’ possession be referred to the International Court of Justice, and all three times Korea refused. It’s necessary to say that the objections of the Korean side look, in our opinion, justified - at least, in contrast to the Japanese arguments - coherent and consistent. For example, the Koreans refer to the fact that the archipelago was acquired by Japan through the use of force during a period of aggressive policy (Tokyo refuses to consider acquiring Liancourt as an act of aggression). So Japan was lawfully stripped of Liancourt after the Second World War on the basis of its results fixed in the documents, and in these conditions arguments about no mention of islands in San Francisco Peace Treaty are irrelevant. Thus, Liancourt is a Korean territory and there are no reasons for discussion of its status in the International Court [3]. The Republic of Korea also emphasizes that Tokyo, proposing that the issue of Liancourt be referred to the International Court of Justice, somehow refrains from referring there the disputes about the Senkaku and Kuril islands [9]. Maybe because China and Russia, being confident that their arguments are true, appeal to the principle of inviolability in considering of results of World War 2, fixed in the Cairo, Yalta and Potsdam declarations. As for the Japanese, they actually deny the provisions of these documents only because Japan did not participate in their drafting and implementation. However, Japan could not participate, as it had been an aggressor, was defeated and agreed to the terms of unconditional surrender [4]. Incidentally, Japan played no role in the drafting of the San Francisco Peace Treaty (where Japan’s defeat was fixed). But for some reason Japan frequently brings forward such explanations: as the Liancourt islands are not mentioned in the text of the Peace Treaty (among the territories Japan should abandon); they are considered as having belonged to Japan. So the historical references of the Japanese side contain a lot of not very logical and, speaking in general, vulnerable points that do not allow definite support of Japan in the present proceedings. Now we will try to consider the economic implication of the Korean-Japanese dispute. First, let’s talk about the natural factors. Actually, the Sea of Japan, which is called the East Sea in Korea, has а rather complex bottom topography, especially in the southern part. In addition to the shallow waters around the islands of Iki, Tsushima, Oki, Ulleungdo and Liancourt, there are two large isolated banks separated by deep troughs - the Bank of Yamato in the area of 39° N, 135 ° E. and the bank of Syunpu (also known as the Northern Bank of Yamato), which is located at approximately 40

2 October 25 in South Korea is marked in the same way as “The Day of Dokdo”. October 25, 1900 - Decree of the Korean emperor about securing the rights to the archipelago 70

°N, 134 °E. The lowest depths of the first and second one are respectively 285 m and 435 m [24]. The main current of the Sea of Japan is the warm Current of Tsushima, which originates in the East China Sea and separates there from the Current of Kuroshio, entering the Sea of Japan through the Korean Strait and heading further north along the west coast of Honshu. Then it divides again and one of its branches, called the East Korean Current, approaches the coast of the Korean Peninsula and, reaching the latitude of Ulleungdo, turns southeast. As for the cold currents, the most noticeable ones are: the Primorskу Current, which goes from the area of the Tatar Strait to the central part of the Sea of Japan and then turns to the Tsugaru Strait; the Liman Current, which goes from the region of the Amur Estuary to the southwest of Northern Primorye; and the North Korean Current, which goes from the region of Vladivostok to the east coast of Korea. Between the maritime sectors of warm and cold currents are clear boundaries. Right in the area of these boundaries, in the joint between two parts of the bank of Yamato and the area of the Liancourt islands, there is a significant number of different seafood and fish resources (squid, crab, cod, pollock, shrimp, etc.). In addition, according to some reports, reserves of gas hydrate on the sea bottom, which have recently been found here, are estimated to be approximately 600 million tons [5]. Both for Korea and Japan, which almost entirely import their fuel and energy, these natural resources would be very useful. However, if the commercial and profitable development of the gas on the sea bottom is a possibility of the remote future, then the fish resources are being actively obtained right now by fishermen of countries adjacent to the Sea of Japan, as well as China. Approximately in the center of the Sea of Japan there is a place of convergence of a 200-mile exclusive economic zone of the Republic of Korea, Japan and Russia, who all ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea 1982 respectively in January 1996, in June 1996 and in March 1997 [25]. What about North Korea? There is no need to speak about it because it was not included on the list of countries, who have recognized the Convention. Actually, the situation at present moment can be characterized in such a way: Republic of Korea has established sovereignty over the Liancourt islands and considers them as the part of its own EEZ and in accordance with the UN Convention has priority rights for the development of seafood and marine research (Article 56, p. 1) in this area [6]. Although, speaking in principle, Seoul has never refused to discuss the possibility of the allocation of certain quotas to the citizens of neighboring countries on a partner basis (Article 62, p.2). However, for the Japanese fishermen and politicians this, apparently, is not enough, and there is something here to fight for. According to estimates, an unlimited access to fishery resources in the Liancourt area could contribute to a sharp reduction of fish imports (now 2.0-2.4 million tons per year, which is equal to the volume of Japan’s entire coastal fisheries) [2]. Fishermen occasionally put pressure on parliament deputies, especially before coming elections; deputies, in turn, apply to the government, and government members state their position and put forward various initiatives. Different

71 statements appear asserting that Korea has monopolized the production of seafood in the Liancourt area, which violates the Convention on the Law of the Sea, and, speaking in general, the inclusion of these islands by Korea into its EEZ is actually illegal. Of course, all these movements are sparking protests from the South Korean side, which have been alternatingly moderate during times of political calm - and stormy with demonstrations such as military exercises around the islands and the interim recall of ambassadors during the pre-election period. So what are the prospects for a decision regarding the Korean-Japanese dispute over Liancourt? Both Korea and Japan are actively using this factor in their foreign and domestic policy, each presenting well-grounded (from their point of view) arguments and thus have no deep interest in the coordination of positions and finding any compromise. So the probability of a resolution of this dispute on a bilateral basis in the near future seems low. As has already been said, we do not need to examine distant historical times. But if we proceed from the arguments based on the legal documents created in the aftermath of the Second World War, then the position of the Republic of Korea seems more firm and logical. It is worthwhile to note that in the question of the Liancourt ROK is supported by DPRK, which in itself is a unique case since both countries have diametrically opposed positions about the majority of all other issues on the Korean Peninsula, So in light of the unlikelihood of a bilateral Korean-Japanese compromise about Liancourt, it seems to be more reasonable and appropriate to work towards a multilateral agreement - for example, in the context of common concerns about security on the Korean peninsula, about the legal consolidation of international non- war regimes in the area of the Sea of Japan, and about the ban on demonstrations of any military force outside its own territorial waters. Moreover, it’ll be necessary as well to get Pyongyang involved in the preparation of such a multilateral agreement because of its repeated rocket launches without notice towards the sea area. The next stage is the implementation of international integration projects in the area of the Sea of Japan, such as the joint development of fish resources. Naturally, the most interested in such projects will be countries adjoining the Sea of Japan. It is assumed that the coastal countries (an active role, including a political one, in the promotion of joint projects should belong to Russia) will jointly invest in the conservation, research, restoration and production of seafood, and later, perhaps, in the development and transportation of hydrocarbons. One of the main meanings of such activities is the fact that economic integration will gradually make irrelevant the motivation for sea territorial disputes in this area and significantly reduce the possibility of their relapse. Of course, in view of the current reality, this may be a matter of the distant future. But if we do not all keep these possibilities in mind - do not even consider them or strive to actualize them - then, taking into account the danger of any

72 escalating “glow” of territorial dispute into a “hot conflict” under conditions of excess nuclear and conventional weapons, then this future may never occur.

REFERENCES

1. Pamphlet of the Ministry of Foreign affairs of Republic of Korea “Dokdo is the territory of Korea”/Брошюра МИД Республики Корея "Токто - территория Кореи", http://www.korea.net/pdfcontent/general/dokdo/2014_dokdo_Russian.pdf 2. “East Asia in disputes for oil and fish”/«Восток Азии в спорах за нефть и рыбу», 01.02.2012, http://www.pravda.ru/world/asia/fareast/01-02-2012/1106609- eastasia-1 3. “Ten arguments about Dokdo islands, distorted by Japan", pamphlet of North-East Asia history fund/ Десять истин об островах Токто, искажаемых Японией", брошюра Фонда изучения истории СВА, http://www.nahf.or.kr/Data/board_100/dokdo_Truth/Russian.pdf 4. “Once more about territorial disputes of Japan with China and Korea – Fund of strategic culture/«Ещё раз о территориальных спорах Японии с Китаем и Кореей» (II) -Фонд стратегической культуры, http://m.fondsk.ru/news/2012/11/16/esche-raz-o-territorialnyh-sporah-japonii-s-kitaem-i- koreej-ii-17645.html 5. “Who? Dokdo!”/«Кто-кто? Токто!» - Российская газета, http://www.rg.ru/2005/06/24/korea-ostrov.html 6. The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea/Конвенция ООН по морскому праву 1982 г., www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_r.pdf 7. “Liancourt, information from Wikipedia/«Лианкур», материал из Википедии — свободной энциклопедии, https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Лианкур 8. Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers Instruction Note No. 677, January 29, 1946/ «Меморандум Главнокомандующего союзных держав японскому императорскому правительству» № 677 29 января 1946 г., Документы 20 века Всемирная история в Интернете, интернет-портал, http://doc20vek.ru/node/1323 9. Refutation concerning pamphlet about Dokdo, published by Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan. Dokdo Research Center. Seoul/Опровержения по поводу рекламной брошюры о Докдо, изданной Министерством иностранных дел Японии. Исследовательский центр Докдо. Сеул, 26.08.2009 г., http://www.dokdohistory.com/ru/?stctgr=5&stsqn=185&sopt=&stxt=&page=1&subject=& bmode=view&bidx=4 10. Liancourt islands/«Острова Лианкур» (кор. 독도, Токто, яп. 竹島, Такэсима;), http://subscribe.ru/archive/country.other.japan4russia/201208/27120044.html 11. Dokdo is the native Korean territory, Russian-Korean Information agency “RusKor”/«Острова Токто - исконно корейская территория», российско-корейское ИА "Рускор", 30.11.2011http://www.ruskorinfo.ru/expert_opinion/1171/?print=Y 12. “Official position of the Republic of Korea about Dokdo islands”/«Официальная позиция Республики Корея в вопросе принадлежности островов Токто», http://nbenegroup.com/territory/tocto_analit.html

13. “Official position of Japan about Takeshima islands”/«Официальная позиция Японии в вопросе принадлежности островов Такэсима», http://www.nbenegroup.com/territory/takesima.html 14. “Position of Japan about Takeshma islands”/«Позиция Японии по островам Такэсима», http://www.kz.embjapan.go.jp/others/takeshima.pdf 15. Potsdam Declaration, July 26, 1945, Chronos, history magazine/Потсдамская Декларация от 26 июля 1945 года, Хронос, исторический портал, http://www.hrono.ru/dokum/194_dok/1945potsdam.php 16. “The problem of Takeshima islands. Territorial sovereignty of Japan over Takeshima islands/Проблема островов Такэсима. Территориальный суверенитет Японии над островами Такэсима», www.ru.emb-japan.go.jp/territory/takeshima/issue.html 17. The problem of Japan’s south territories/Проблема южных территорий Японии", Газета.ру, Интернет-портал, http://www.gazeta.ru/2003/01/09/vrezterritor.shtml 18. There have been conducted military exercises in defense of Dokdo island with the landing of Navy special forces, October 25/«Проведены учения по обороне острова Токто с высадкой спецподразделений ВМС», 25 октября 2013 г., http://korean- news.org/index.php?category=army 19. San Francisco Treaty of piece, 1951/Сан-Францисский мирный договор (1951), http://ru.wikisource.org/wiki/Сан-Францисский договор 20. Status and prospects for resolving territorial disputes between Japan and its neighbors: the Republic of Korea and the People's Republic of China/Состояние и перспективы решения территориальных споров между Японией и ее соседями: Республикой Корея и Китайской Народной Республикой, http://www.perspektivy.info/misl/idea/sostojanije_i_perspektivy_reshenija_territorialnyh_s porov_mezhdu_japonijej_i_jeje_sosedami_respublikoj_koreja_i_kitajskoj_narodnoj_respu blikoj_2012-08-23.htm 21. "The starting point in 1945 – Japan’s surrender/“Точка отсчета 1945 год – капитуляция Японии”, http://histrf.ru/uploads/media/default/0001/06/6c42484d0d6fcb6cd515893cbbb3b04282ba 9fe0.pdf 22. Charter of the United Nations. International Court of Justice/Устав Организации Объединенных Наций. Международный суд. Документы на русском языке, интернет-портал, www.icj-cij.org/homepage/ru/unchart.php 23. The pamphlet of Ministry of Japan “Takeshima’/Брошюра МИД Японии "Takeshima", www.ru.emb-japan.go.jp/territory/takeshima/pdfs/takeshima_pamphlet.pdf 24. “Sea of Japan”, “Seas and oceans” /«Японское море», «Моря и океаны», Интернет-портал, http://oceangid.blogspot.ru/2013/04/japonskoe-more.html 25. Chronological lists of ratifications, accessions and successions to the Convention and the related Agreements as at 29 October 2013, www.un.org/depts/los/reference_files/chronological_lists_of_ratifications.htm 26. The Man, The Image & The World, June 15th, 2010, http://leejongwon.livejournal.com/936344.html 27. Treaty of Peace with Japan Signed in San Francisco, 8 September 1951, www.taiwandocuments.org/sanfrancisco01.htm

OUR NAMES FOR OUR ISLANDS

Sergey A.Ponomarev

The article tells about the activities of Sakhalin Branch of Russian geographical society to explore “white spots” and interesting places on the map of the Kurile Islands and the Island of Sakhalin. Particular attention is drawn to the approval of geographical names reflecting the merits and contribution of Russian researchers.

Keywords: Sakhalin, Kurile Islands, Kamchatka, island, geographical space, expeditions, Pacific Ocean

Sakhalin branch of the Russian Geographical Society organized and ran the booth at the Festival preceding the XV Congress of the Russian Geographical Society at the Central House of Artists (CHA) in Moscow on October 2014. The booth was titled “white spots on the map of Russia” and was dedicated to the Sakhalin region activities on entitling its unnamed geographical features.

There were several prerequisites to this activity.

First, attention to the development of the Kurile Islands was paid by the federal authorities. The program of socio-economic development of the archipelago, which had been worked out in the beginning of 90s, was updated recently and became fully funded. The implementation of federal target program "Social and economic development of the Kurile Islands (Sakhalin Region) for 2007 - 2015" worth 28 billion rubles is completing now. These funds were spent to build new all-weather airport on the Iturup Island (2014), fishing port in the Kitovaya Bay, deep-water berth in South Kurilsk, many social facilities on Paramushir, Etorofu and Shikotan. The program will be

75 extended after 2015, and its funding will increase by more than twice to amount to 68 billion rubles. Second, it was necessary to clarify the scope of application of considerable resources and efforts. There has been no comprehensive physical and geographical description of the Kurile Islands so far. Available works relate mainly to the largest of these islands. The Charter of Sakhalin area of July 9, 2001 №270 (Gubernskie Vedomosti, July 11, 2001) indicated in general form that Sakhalin area included the island of Sakhalin, the Greater and Lesser Kurile chains without listing islands of the Kurile archipelago. The assertion that there were 59 islands belonging to Sakhalin Region, including 56 of Kurile islands was generally accepted in popular literature (P.A. Leonov, I.V. Pankin, I.E. Belousov Oblast' na ostrovakh. Kratkiy ocherk istorii, razvitiya ekonomiki i kul'tury, deyatel'nosti partorganizatsii Sakhalinskoy oblasti. 2-ye, pererab. i dop.izd. M., «Mysl'», 1974. 318S. – S.11.). A year of 2010 became the starting point. Under my initiative Rosreestr provided the first general list of 459 largest islands and rocks of the area. The same year Sakhalin branch of the Russian Geographical Society prepared a list of names of islands located in the region. This list was included in the Charter of the Sakhalin region by Law 126-ZO of December 24, 2010. For that moment the number of islands amounted to 81. They included Sakhalin Island and the adjacent islands Ush (Okha District), Moneron (Nevelsky district), Terpeniya (Poronaisky district), as well as 77 islands of the Kurile archipelago. The next step was entitling unnamed islands and other geographical features, along with collection of proposals, preparation of historical references, organizing marine expeditions and conducting surveys of objects in the field. According to preliminary estimates more than 30 rocks and islands adjacent to Sakhalin, and 178 islands and rocks of the Kurile archipelago had no official names. In order to attract public attention to this issue regional leading newspaper "Sovietsky Sakhalin" (July 31, 2012, №97) published the article "Name the island". It was noted that, while the public attention turned to the Far East and Pacific Russia and the federal target program of social and economic development of the Kurile Islands is enhanced, an objective necessity occurred to name at least some of these geographic features. It would not only broaden our citizens’ knowledge of Russian territories, but would also facilitate the development of island resources. Another purpose was to expand russification of our geographical space.

A number of expeditions were conducted in 2013 and 2014, and the work became systematic. Here are some names for unnamed objects as proposed by now. 1. Vladimirov Strait. Sakhalin region, Nogliksky District. The strait was formed in 2004 with the erosion of sand spit separating Nyisky bay from Sea of Okhotsk. The width is 0.9 km. It was first described by DVFGU Professor P.F. Brovko in 2009 after the famous explorer of the sea shores, the head of Sakhalin expedition of the Institute of Oceanology of the USSR Academy of Sciences A.T. Vladimirov (1921-1961). He carried out coastal researches and passed long distances, being without a leg. A.T. Vladimirov is the author of major generalizing works on dynamics and morphology of the coasts of West Kamchatka and Sakhalin. 2. Gromyko Island. Sakhalin Region, Kurile district. It is a part of group of the Tair archipelago at the northern tip of Urup Island near the Cape Castricum (area 0.2796 sq. km, coordinates 46 ° 14'05.5 "N, 150 ° 36'07.1" E). Observed and described by commander of Korsakov division of hydrographic vessels of the Pacific Fleet I.A. Tikhonov in November 2012. Naming an island in honor of outstanding USSR statesman A.A. Gromyko is proposed by V.N. Nosov, the representative of the Russian Federation Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, and Sakhalin branch of the Russian Geographical Society. A.A. Gromyko was directly involved in the preparation and holding Yalta (February 1945) and Potsdam (July 1945) conferences, during which the conditions of Soviet entry into the war with Japan and the decision on subsequent return of southern Sakhalin and the Kurile Islands to the USSR were adopted. By decision of the USSR leadership A.A.Gromyko headed the country's delegation at the negotiations on the formation of the United Nations and on behalf of the Soviet side signed the UN Charter at the conference held in San Francisco (USA) in April-June 1945 Naming the largest island in group of the Tair Islands in honor of A.A.Gromyko is a historical thread linking Sakhalin, the Kurile Islands of the Russian Federation with the city of San Francisco – a place of UN establishment. 3. Zenkovich Island. Sakhalin region, Nogliksky District. The island was formed in 2004 with the erosion of sand spit separating Nyisky bay from Sea of Okhotsk. The length is 2.9 km, the width is 0.6 km. It was first described by DVFGU Professor P.F. Brovko in 2009. Naming the island after outstanding researcher of sea coasts, great scientific organizer and founder of the coastal scientific school in Russia V.P. Zenkovich is proposed by the Sakhalin branch of the Russian Geographical Society. Vsevolod Pavlovich Zenkovich (1910-1994), geomorphologist and oceanographer, founder of the national school of complex coastal science; Doctor of Geographical Sciences, Professor.

4. Kapitsa Island. Sakhalin Region, South Kurile District. The island (according to Rosreestr number 8) is located at the eastern coast of Shikotan Island as a part of the Lesser Kurile Ridge (the area is 0.0286 sq. km, coordinates: 43° 49'09.5 "N, 146° 54'39.9" E). To name it after outstanding national physicist S.P. Kapitsa is proposed by the Sakhalin branch of the Russian Geographical Society. Sergei Petrovich Kapitsa (14.2.1928, Cambridge, UK - 14.08.2012, Moscow) was the prominent physicist and public figure, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences (1961), Professor (1965). 5, 6. Knorozov Island Rock, Knorozov Cape. Sakhalin Region, Kurile district. Island Rock and Cape are located on the western coast of Chirip Peninsula, Iturup Island (coordinates 45° 18'12.17 "N, 147° 52'0.84." E). Naming the island in honor of Yu.V. Knorozov, outstanding Russian scientist and linguist, who have deciphered ancient Maya writing, is proposed by A.A.Vasilevsky, the Professor of Sakhalin State University and the Sakhalin branch of the Russian Geographical Society. Yuriy Valentinovich Knorozov (19.11.1922, Kharkov, Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic – 31.03.1999, Saint Petersburg) - Soviet historian, epigrapher and ethnographer; 7. Bay of the Maya. Sakhalin Region, Kurile district. The bay is located on the western coast of Chirip Peninsula, Iturup Island. Name is proposed by the Sakhalin branch of the Russian Geographical Society. Name “Maya” emphasizes the importance of the Kurile archipelago, which served as a kind of bridge in relations and contacts between cultures and civilizations in ancient times. 8. Minerva Island. Sakhalin Region, Kurile district. This island is a part of group of the Twins Archipelago and is located in the water area at the northern tip of Urup Island (area of the island is 54.8 sq. m., center point coordinates: 46° 13'25.0"N, 150° 29'41.4"E). Name is proposed by the Sakhalin branch of the Russian Geographical Society. The island was examined and described by I.A.Tikhonov during the second expedition of hydrographic survey vessel under the program of entitling geographic sea features in November 2012. The name of the island was substantiated by I.G. Minervin, a full member of the Russian Geographical Society and rector of Sakhalin State University. 9. Pivnaya kruzhka (Beer Mug) Rock. Sakhalin Region, Kurile district. It is a part of the group of islands of the Twins Archipelago and is located in the water area at the northern tip of Urup Island (area of the island is 7.5 sq. m., coordinates: 46° 13'17.8 "N, 150° 29'37.9" E). The name of the island is proposed by the Sakhalin branch of the Russian Geographical Society according to that already given by domestic navigators visiting the area of the Okhotsk Sea. The rock looks like a beer mug with a handle when seen from the south side of the Urup Island. It was examined and described by

I.A.Tikhonov during the second expedition of hydrographic survey vessel under the program of entitling geographic sea features in November 2012. 10.;11. Cape and Grotto of Russian Geographical Society. Sakhalin Region, Kurile district. The objects are located at the western coast of Chirip Peninsula, Iturup Island (coordinates 45° 16'34 "N, 147° 52'5.05" E). The names are proposed by the Sakhalin branch of the Russian Geographical Society. Imperial Russian Geographical Society (now - Russian Geographical Society), established in 1845, is the oldest scientific organization in our country. For more than century and a half the members of Society have made an outstanding contribution to the study of the seas and continents of our planet, including Pacific Ocean, Russian Far East and the coasts. 12.;13. Sanich Island and cove. Sakhalin Region, the Kurile district. The objects are the parts of the Twins Archipelago and are located in the water area at the northern tip of Urup Island (area of the island is 0,17 sq. km; center point coordinates: 46°13'18.7" N, 150°29'22.9" E). The names are proposed by the Sakhalin branch of the Russian Geographical Society taking into account traditions of domestic navigators visiting the area of the Sea of Okhotsk. The objects were observed and described by commander of Korsakov division of hydrographic vessels of the Pacific Fleet I.A. Tikhonov in November 2012. 14. Farkhutdinov Island. Sakhalin Region, South Kurile District. The island (according to Rosreestr number 11) is located at the eastern coast of the Shikotan Island as a part of the Lesser Kurile Ridge (the area is 0.0307 sq. km, the coordinates: 43° 48'27.7 "N, 146° 53'12.4" E). The name after I.P. Farkhutdinov, former Sakhalin Governor, was proposed by the Sakhalin branch of the Russian Geographical Society. Igor Pavlovich Farkhutdinov (04.16.1950, Novosibirsk, Russia - 20.08.2003, Kamchatka Region) was a statesman, governor of Sakhalin region (1995-2003), Doctor of Economics. He died tragically in an air crash during his flight to the Kurile Islands. 15. Chavicha Island. Sakhalin Region, Kurile district. It is a part of the Tair Archipelago at the northern tip of Urup Island near the Cape Castricum (the area is 27.1 thousand sq. m.; coordinates 46° 13'52.1 "N, 150° 35'09.9" E). It was observed and described by commander of Korsakov division of hydrographic vessels of the Pacific Fleet I.A. Tikhonov in November 2012. The name is proposed by the Sakhalin branch of the Russian Geographical Society in honor of the steamer “Chavicha”. “Chavicha” dry cargo steamer was built in Lübeck (Germany) in 1923 under the name of “Hohenfelz”. Load capacity is 3.5 thousand tons, speed - 9 knots, length - 102.8 m, width - 14.64 m, draft - 6.71 m. (The steamer was given the species name of one of the largest fish of the salmon family (Chinook), which spawns in Kamchatka, Sakhalin and the Kurile Islands, and goes for fattening to the shores of America).

On July 16, 1935 steamer “Chavicha” carrying 2,800 tons of cargo, including equipment for Petropavlovsk ship repair yard, left port of Odessa under the command of the 27-year-old captain A.I. Shchetinina, and after 58 days arrived safely in Kamchatka. This voyage attracted the attention of the world media which served as the international recognition of the Soviet Union efforts on development of industry and maritime infrastructure in the Far East. Naming the island “Chavicha” continues the tradition of geographic sea features in honor of the ships which made the history of Russian and world navigation. 16. Shchetinina Island. Sakhalin Region, the Kurile district. The island (according to Rosreestr number 21) is a part of the Tair Archipelago at the northern tip of Urup Island near the Cape Castricum (area is 46.6 thousand sq. m.; coordinates: 46° 13'41.6 "N, 150° 34'38.5" E). It was observed and described by commander of Korsakov division of hydrographic vessels of the Pacific Fleet I.A. Tikhonov in November 2012. The name after A.I. Shchetinina, the captain of an ocean-going vessel, is proposed by the Sakhalin branch of the Russian Geographical Society. Anna Ivanovna Shchetinina (26.02.1908 – 25.09.1999) – is the world’s first woman to serve as a captain of an ocean-going vessel. At the age of 27 she attracted international attention as a captain in charge of steamer “Chavycha” on its journey from Odessa to Kamchatka via Northern Sea Route for 58 days. She was honorary member of Geographical Society of the USSR, Distinguished Worker of the Merchant Marine, honorary citizen of Vladivostok, honorary member of the Far-Eastern Association of Shipmasters and the International Federation of Shipmasters' Associations (IFSMA). Entitling these two islands of the Tair group in honor of A.A.Gromyko and A.I.Shchetinina enhances etymological association of friendly political and economic relations between Russia and the USA, maintaining a constructive and comprehensive cooperation in all historical times. The hardest thing in the expeditions is the organization of landings to the unequipped shore in dangerous conditions of navigation. This year we gained real help from the expedition of Moscow State University of Geodesy and Cartography, headed by S.K.Beskov. That expedition worked in the "Small Kuril Islands" reserves and sanctuaries under grant programs, including those funded by RGO. Sakhalin branch of the Russian Geographical Society organized comprehensive support for the expedition and delegated me to participate in it. Expedition had a sailing catamaran Novosibirsk in service. It was produced by “Sibkat-24", assembled in Sakhalin and was ferried through the stormy Sea of Okhotsk by captain Dmitry Lecht and Sergei Beskov to the Kunashir Island. From there we left for the Lesser Kurile chain in September 2014.

We passed between Kunashir and Hokkaido, then came out to the Pacific Ocean and reached the Anuchin Island. Having reached unnamed cape of this island we installed 4.2 m memorial cross there, which was handed to the expedition by Tikhon, the Bishop of South Sakhalin and Kuriles. S.Beskov offered to name the most south-eastern cape of Russia in honor of Apostle Andrew. This proposal was supported by the expedition. Cape of Andrey Pervozvanny (43° 21'39.12"N, 146° 00' 18.74"E).

MODELLING COLLISION AVOIDANCE ACTIONS IN CLOSEST APPROACH ZONES BY MEANS OF NEURAL NETWORKS

Victor.A. Sedov, Nelly А. Sedova

Results of neural network solution to sea-going vessel collision avoidance actions in the closest approach zones are presented. Teaching selection formation methodology, calculation of identifying neural processing element quantity in layers, and results of neural network training in teaching selection using five pre-processing methods are shown.

Keywords: training algorithm, maneuvering board, method of optimization, rules for preventing сollisions at sea, neural network, teaching selection, collision avoidance action, closest approach

Introduction

One of the main areas of focus in nautical navigation is collision avoidance by vessels at sea. Current statistics shows that over 80 per cent of all marine accidents are accounted for by human factor [1], therefore some decision making support systems for collision avoidance have been offered, however despite certain advance in this area [2], passing problem remains to be relevant. This paper gives the results of modeling sea-going vessels’ collision avoidance actions in closest approach zones by means of neural networks [3].

Teaching selection formation

When doing neural network modelling it is one of the most important tasks to have teaching selection for a neural network formed. Information obtained from a maneuvering board has been used for teaching selection formation during this research. A teaching selection consists of teaching pairs, where inputs are bearing; operator-ship heading (our vessel); target ship heading, i.e. a vessel to be passed by an operator-ship; a target-ship’s speed, while the outputs are an operator-ship course alteration. The range of values for inputs «bearing», «operator-ship heading» and «target-ship heading» are [0; 360]°, the range of values for input «target-ship speed» has been obtained based on the Russian Maritime Register of Shipping data [4] and is [0; 34] knots. Accounting clause from Rule 8 [5] of the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREGs) saying that in case «If there is sufficient sea-room, alteration of course alone may be the most effective action to avoid a close-quarters situation» and statements of the COLREGs

83 commentators [2], that «most of the actions taken to avoid collision are these by the course manouevre», it is assumed that each teaching pair output is the value of course alteration, given in the range of from - 60° (turning to port by 60°) to 360° (performing a turning circle manoeuvre). Each teaching pair formation method included the following actions: formation through enumeration of possibilities with some step for the range of inputs of the list of various avoiding collision scenarios; plotting each separate situation on the manouevring board and determining the amount of the operator-ship course alteration accounting COLREGs rules [5], commentaries thereto [6, 7], as well as reccommenations of so called «good seamanship practice». Let’s. For instance, examine the situation when the distance to target ship is 2NM, an operator-ship heading is 090 90°, the operator ship speed is 15kt, by radar we obtain that the target ship’s heading is 330°, target bearing is 090°, target ship’s speed is 8kt (Fig. 1). 0 330 30

300 60

270 90

240 8 nmi 2 nmi 4 nmi 120

210 150 0 180

Fig. 1 Diagram of the situation described

In such a situation the target-ship is dead ahead of the operator-ship and presents a hazardous target, as the operator-ship and target-ship are in close- quarter passing situation. According to Rule 16, COLREGs [5] the operator- ship should give way to avoid collision with the target-ship. Having plotted such a situation on a manouevring board and having made all the necessary calculations we will obtain that the new operator-ship’s course is 120°. For this it is necessary to turn 30° to starboard, and the operator-ship will pass astern of the target-ship at a safe distance. The analysis of such a situation has made it possible to form teaching pair number 91. The rest of the 525 teaching pairs have been obtained in the same manner.

Neural network architecture definition

The next task to be solved for the purpose of the neural network modelling is determining the number of neural processing elements within the neural network layers. In paper [8] there is an indication that it is expedient to use conclusion from Arnold – Kolmogorov – Hecht-Nielsen theorem, according to which: N

N y Q Q Nw N y 1 N x N y 1 N y , 1 log2Q N x where N y is output signal dimensionality, Q is cardinality of teaching examples, Nw is desired number of synaptic connections, N x is input signal dimensionality. By inserting the data available into the formula, taking into consideration that the first layer of neural processing elements contains four inputs, while the last layer – one neural processing element, characterizing one of six classes, we will obtain: 525 Nw 1 525 1 4 1 1 1, 1 log2 525 i.e. the number of synaptic connections lies within the range from 52 to 795, and consequently, the desired number of neural processing elements in hidden layers (N) can be calculated by the following formula:

N w N , N x N y whence the number of neural processing elements in hidden layers is within the range from 10 to 160.

Neural network teaching results

To have neural networks taught it was decided to use a neural network of multi-layered perceptron type, as a neural network pack – NeuroPro pack [9], that allows developing multi-layered neural networks, using gradient optimization methods, performing developed neural network testing, identifying input signal role, performing neural network simplification, etc. The following were used as optimization methods [9]: gradient descent method, modified ParTan, conjugate gradient method, Broyden- Fletcher- Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) method. Taking into consideration that NeuroPro pack allows for the maximum number of neural processing elements for a layer of 100, it was decided for the number of neural processing elements of from 110 to 160 to be split into two layers, from 10 to 60 neural processing elements in the first one, and 100 in the second.

Neural network modelling incorporated teaching selection of the following kinds: 1. Teaching selection without preliminary normalization of input and output values. 2. Teaching selection without preliminary normalization of input values, but with oputput interpolation. 3. Teaching selection with specified input. 4. Teaching selection with specified input, but with oputput interpolation. 5. Teaching selection with specified input, while the output of each teaching pair is assumed to be the class corresponding to one of the course manouevres: class 1 corresponding to the operator course alteration hard to port (-60°), class 2 – to port (-30°), class 3 – ahead (neither course nor speed are changed) (0°), class 4 – to starboard (30°), class 5 – hard to starboard (60°), class 6 – turning motion (360°). In the result of kind 1 teaching selection testing in untaught neural networks the number of wrongly identified teaching pairs lies within the range of from 94 to 521, the arithmetic average of wrongly identified teaching pairs is 87,82%. In the result of teaching neural networks with structure 4 – K – 1 (or structure 4 – (K-100) – 100 – 1 for the total number of neural processing elements K within the range of from 110 to 160), where K is the number of neural processing elements in hidden layers, making use of the above optimization methods, the arithmetic average of teaching cycles is µц = 8002, -5 the arithmetic average of teaching error being µε = = 3.910 , the arithmetic average of correctly taught teaching pairs being µп = 479 (which makes 91,3% of the total quantity of teaching pairs), the arithmetic average of dubiously taught teaching pairs being µн = 14,56, which makes 2,8%. When testing kind 2 teaching selection in untaught neural networks the number of wrongly identified teaching pairs lies within the limit of from 94 to 521, the arithmetic average of wrongly identified teaching pairs is 83.3 %. In the result of teaching neural networks using teaching selection of kind 2 the arithmetic average of teaching cycles is µц = 8210, the arithmetic -5 average of teaching error being µε = 3.610 , the arithmetic average of correctly taught teaching pairs being µп = 479, which makes 91,5% of the total quantity of teaching pairs, the arithmetic average of dubiously taught teaching pairs being µн = 14,4, which makes 2,7%. Testing kind 3 teaching selection in untaught neural networks has shown the number of wrongly identified teaching pairs wuithin the range of from 96 to 514, ), the arithmetic average of wrongly identified pairs being 81,1%. Teaching neural networks using teaching selection of kind 3 has shown the arithmetic average of teaching cycles being µц = 8636, the arithmetic

-5 average of teaching error being µε = 3.710 , the arithmetic average of correctly taught teaching pairs being µп = 488 (91,6% of the total quantity of teaching pairs), the arithmetic average of dubiously taught teaching pairs being µн = 10,7, which makes 2%. When testing kind 4 teaching selection in untaught neural networks the number of wrongly identified teaching pairs has changed to from 94 to 521, the arithmetic average of wrongly identified pairs being 80,2%. In the result of teaching neural networks using teaching selection of kind 4 the arithmetic average of teaching cycles is µц = 7688, the arithmetic -5 average of teaching error being µε = 3.410 , the arithmetic average of correctly taught teaching pairs being µп = 483,5, which makes 92.1% of the total quantity of teaching pairs, the arithmetic average of dubiously taught teaching pairs being µн = 13,2 (which makes 2,5%). In the result of testing kind 5 teaching selection in untaught neural networks the number of wrongly identified teaching pairs lies within the range of from 46 to 522, the arithmetic average of wrongly identified pairs being 80,9%. In the result of teaching neural networks using teaching selection of kind 5 the arithmetic average of teaching cycles is µц = 8834, the arithmetic -5 average of teaching error being µε = 3.510 , the arithmetic average of correctly taught teaching pairs being µп = 482,6, which makes 91,9% of the total quantity of teaching pairs, the arithmetic average of dubiously taught teaching pairs being µн = 13,8, which makes 2,63%. The analysis of teaching results has proved thaat for avoiding collision in close quarter situations, virtually independent of of preliminary processing of the teaching selection, the best option is a neural network of four-layered perceptron type, having 40-60 neural processing elements in the first hidden layer and 100 neural processing elements in the second hidden layer, using conjugate gradient method as an optimizer.

Conclusion

The neural network modelling done resulted in scrutinizing 64 various neural network architectures and various types of preliminary processing of teaching selection. Based on the analysis results s model of neural network has been selected for finding solution to collision avoidance problem – a four- layered perceptron with optimization by the method of conjugate gradients, the required number of neural processing elements within the layers of such a neural network.

REFERENCES

1. Нгуен Ким Фыонг (2006). Теоретическое и экспериментальное исследование правила 17 МППСС-72: автореф. дис. канд. техн. наук: 05.22.19 / Нгуен Ким Фыонг. – ГМА имени адмирала С.О. Макарова, Санкт-Петербург. Nguyễn Kim Phương (2006). Theoretical and Experimental Investigation of Rule 17 of COLREGs: candidate of science (engineering) author’s abstract: 05.22.19 / Nguyễn Kim Phương. – Admiral Makarov State Maritime Academy, Saint-Petersburg. Nguyễn Kim Phương (2006). Teoreticheskoye i eksperimentalnoye issledovaniye pravila 17 MPPSS-72: avtoreferat dissertatsii kandidata tekhnicheskikh nauk: 05.22.19 / Nguyễn Kim Phương. – GMA imeni S.O. Makarova. Sankt-Peterburg. 2. Вагущенко, Л.Л., Вагущенко, А.А. (2010) Поддержка решений по расхождению с судами. – Одесса: Феникс. Vagushchenko, L.L., Vagushchenko, A.A. (2010) Support to Solutions of Collision Avoidance Problems. – Odessa: Fenix. Vagushchenko, L.L., Vagushchenko, A.A. (2010) Podderzhka reshenii po raskhozhdeniyu s sudami. – Odessa: Fenix. 3. Седов, В.А., Седова, Н.А. (2014) Моделирование расхождения судов в зоне чрезмерного сближения нейронными сетями // Научные проблемы транспорта Сибири и Дальнего Востока. – №3. – С. 102-105. Sedov, V.A., Sedova, N.A. (2014) Modelling Collision Avoidance Actions in Closest Approach Zones by Means of Neural Networks // Scientific Problems of Transport of Siberia and Far East. – No. 3. P. 102-105. Sedov, V.A., Sedova, N.A. (2014) Modelirovaniye raskhozhdeniya sudov v zone chrezmernogo sblizheniya neironnymi setyami // Nauchnyie problemy transporta Sibiri i Dalnego Vostoka. – No. 3. – S. 102-105. 4. Регистровая книга [Электронный ресурс] / Главная страница Российского морского регистра судоходства – Электрон. дан. – Режим доступа: http://www.rs- head.spb.ru/ru/ Register Book [digital resource] / Main page of the Russian Maritime Register of Shipping – Electronic data. – Access mode: http://www.rs-head.spb.ru/ru/ Registrovaya kniga [Elektronnyi resurs] / glavnaya stranitsa Rossiiskogo morskogo registra sudokhodstva – Elektrohhyie dannyie. – Rezhim dostupa: http://www.rs- head.spb.ru/ru/ 5. Международные правила предупреждений столкновений судов в море, 1972 г. (1982) / Под ред. Н.А. Долотова, Н.А. Паламарчука. – Издание Главного управления навигации и океанографии Министерства обороны союза ССР. International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea, 1972 (1982) / Ed. By N.A. Dolotov, N.A. Palamarchuk. – Publication by Chief Directorate for Navigation & Oceanography, Ministry of Defense of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Mezhdunarodnyie pravila preduprezhdeniya stolknovenii sudov v more, 1972 (1982) / Pod redaktsiyei N.A. Dolotova, N.A. Palamarchuka. – Izdaniye Glavnogo upravleniya navigatsii i okeanografii Ministerstva oborony Soyuza SSR. 6. Коккрофт, А.Н., Ламейер, Дж. Н.Ф. (1981) Толкование МППСС-72. Пер. с англ. Н.Я. Брызгина и Н.Т. Шайхутдинова; под. ред. Н.Я. Брызгина. М.: Транспорт. Cockroft, A.N., Lameijer, J.N.F. (1981) A Guide to the Collision Avoidance Rules. Translation from English by N.Ya. Bryzgin and N.T. Shaikhutdinov; ed. By N.Ya. Bryzgin. Moscow: Transport. Cockroft, A.N., Lameijer, J.N.F. (1981) Tolkovaniye MPPSS-72. Perevod s angliiskogo N.Ya. Bryzgina i N.T. Shaikhutdinova; pod redaktsiyei N.Ya. Bryzgina. Moskva: Transport. 7. Яскевич, А.П., Зурабов, Ю.Г. (1990) Комментарии к МППСС-72: Справочник. – М.: Транспорт. Yaskevich, A.P., Zurabov, Yu.G. (1990) Commentary to

COLREGs: Reference Book. – Moscow: Transport. Yaskevich, A.P., Zurabov, Yu.G. (1990) Kommentarii k MPPSS-72: spravochnik. – Moskva: Transport. 8. Ясницкий, Л.Н. (2011) Искусственный интеллект. Элективный курс: учебное пособие / Л.Н. Ясницкий. – М.: БИНОМ. Лаборатория знаний. Yasnitskii, L.N. (2011) Artificial Intelligence. Elective course: teaching aid / L.N. Yasnitskii. – Moscow: BINOM. Laboratory of Knowledge. Yasnitskii, L.N. (2011) Iskusstvennyi intellect. Elektivnyi kurs: uchebnoye posobiye / L.N. Yasnitskii. – Moskva: BINOM. Laboratoriya znanii. 9. Седова, Н.А., Седов, В.А. (2012) Нейронные сети в NeuroPro (методические указания к лабораторной работе). Владивосток: МГУ им. адм. Г.И. Невельского. Sedov, V.A., Sedova, N.A. (2012) Neural Networks in NeuroPro (Laboratory operations manual). Vladivostok: MSU named after Admiral G.I. Nevelskoy. Sedov, V.A., Sedova, N.A. (2012) Neironnyie seti v NeuroPro (metodicheskiye ukazaniya k laboratornoi rabote). Vladivostok: MGU imeni admiral G.I. Nevelskogo

THE VALUE OF THE ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF THE SOUTH KURILE SUB-REGION FOR THE NATIONAL SECURITY OF RUSSIA

Boris I.Tkachenko

This article examines natural, biological, mineral-raw and recreational resources of South Kurile sub-region, makes for the first time in the scientific world a detailed and complex estimation of economical and strategic importance of South Kurile Islands, adjoining continental shelf and 200-mile exclusive economic zone for Russia, considers impact of "the Kurile problem" on Russia’s national security Keywords: South Kurile Islands, economic potential, exclusive economic zone, continental shelf, natural, biological, mineral-raw and recreation resources, Sea of Okhotsk, Russian Federaion, Japan.

Economic evaluation of consequences for Russian national security interests caused by concession of South Kurile Islands to Japan is very important for Russian Federation. The main wealth of any country at all ages is the land, because the world’s population constantly grows, and territorial resources of the Earth are limited. That is why the value of any territory suitable for living is steadily increasing. The total area of South Kurile Islands (little Kurile Islands, island of Kunashir and island of Iturup), according to the specialized press and official encyclopedic reference books, is more than 8.6 thousand square km, which is more than half of the area of all the Kurile Islands [1]. This is approximately equivalent to the area of Cyprus, Lebanon, Jamaica, and is a little less than the area of Israel. In addition, it can be said that the territory of South Kurile Islands comprises a totally unique combination of natural, recreational and territorial resources for Russia. It must also be noted that according to the data of statistics and economical committees of Sakhalin regional Administration the population of the sub-region was in 2001 14,1-15,7 thousand people (25 thousand at the beginning of 1990) [4]. The economic potential of these resources is enormous. In fact Kurile Islands are a storeroom of various minerals. (Here and further characterization of mineral and raw material base of South Kurile Islands are part of the actual data, published in the book "Mineral and raw material base of Sakhalin and Kurile Islands on the eve of the third millennium"[5].) According to Sakhalin geologists, precious metals on Kurile Islands are represented by silver-containing gold ore deposits. As for gold ore, the gold- bearing potential of South Kurile Islands is at least one step higher, than the potential of Sakhalin. This is undoubtedly a highly promising area. It is significant that Japan in 1937-1943 intensively fulfilled works of searching

91 gold ore, selectively examined richest deposits and exported them to the processing plants. Within the South Kuriles there are two gold-bearing ore districts: on island of Iturup — with 16 ore fields and on island of Kunashir - with 8 ore fields. As the most promising (according to the order of importance) are recognized below-mentioned objects: North Kunashir ore junction, South Kunashir area, North Iturup ore junction. Gold and silver deposits have been explored on the island of Kunashir. North Kunashir ore junction is the most promising and fairly well examined gold ore object of Kurile archipelago. Probable reserves of only North Kunashir ore junction comprise 475 tons of gold and 2160 tons of silver. In some points of deposit “Prasolovskoye” the contents of gold in 1 ton of ore reaches 1 kg and more, silver – 5 kg and more, selenium and tellurium – 250 g. Probable resources of deposit “Prasolovskoye” are considered to be extensive and comprise 26.6 tons of gold 135.4 tons of silver. As for gold South Kunashir area is also very promising. Iturup ore area is considered as the second perspective one regarding gold and silver, within its boundaries it is North Iturup ore junction with total area of 800 square km. North Iturup ore junction includes 6 ore fields. Promising resources of gold here are evaluated nearly 370 ton, silver – 2540 ton. According to estimation of only proved reserves and undiscovered resources the price of gold on South Kuriles is approximately $ 1.2 billion, silver - 3.4 billion (in world market prices at the beginning of 1988) [6]. According to Sakhalin geologists, on South Kurile Islands there are complex ore zones with zinc content of up to 20 %, copper - up to 12 %, lead - up to 15 %. The total evaluation price of these promising resources is 9.7 billion dollars [7]. The most realistic prospects for industrial development apply to Valentine deposit, situated in the central part of Kunashir near the Lake Valentine. Prior to 1945, Japanese merchants had conducted exploratory and operational work in the mines, as evidenced by in the partially remained mountain excavations-galleries, the remnants of the mine buildings and several stacks of mined ore. From the ore mines to the sea coast with a built pier the narrow-gauge railway has been laid. All of this suggests that the Japanese considered this object as very promising and were making preparations here for fulfilling large-scale mining operations. Valentine complex ore deposit on Kunashir island contains in the main ore “body”: zinc – 14%, copper – about 4%, lead – 0,5%, barium – up to 20%, strontium – up to 3%, silver - up to 100g/t, gold – up to 2 %. In addition, the ore includes cadmium, germanium, indium, platinum. The discovered zinc resources in ore deposit are 18 thousand ton, copper – 5 thousand ton.

One of the significant geological events in recent years was the discovering of rhenium sulfide by Russian scientists at volcano Kudryavy on island of Iturup. Total resources of rhenium in ore deposits are estimated in the amount of 2.7 t with an average content of virtual rhenium equal to 211 g/t. Besides, rhenium was discovered in volcanic gases. A theoretical model of its extraction from volcanic gases and making rhenium concentrate has been developed. The existence of rhenium was discovered in complex, gold and silver ores, as well in molybdenite in Iturup and Kunashir. For example, molybdenite from Novoye sulphur deposit (Iturup) contains from 1.36% to 4.64% (3.18% average) of rhenium. According to special calculations, rhenium resources of all known world natural deposits are estimated as 1 thousand ton. The Earth’s crust contains it five times less than gold and a thousand times less than tungsten. This metal is extremely scattered in nature and does not have its own place of birth. Rhenium is much more expensive than gold. Thus, the cost of technological products from rhenium (wire, foil) is up to 610 USD per 1 gram. However, demand for this metal is constantly growing, especially in recent years when it has become the object of interest in rocket technology. Rhenium is used for producing parts of supersonic aircrafts and missiles, protects the metal from corrosion and wear. Global production of rhenium in the 2000 year was about 30 tons. Rhenium consumption in Russia is about 2.5 tons per year. There is no other rhenium- containing mineral raw deposit in Russia, except on Kuriles [8]. The main resources of native sulfur on the Large Kurile Islands are on Iturup. Here the large deposit of volcanic sulphur – Novoye – has been prepared for development. The proved commercial reserves of native sulphur only of one of the plots – Zapadny (Western) are more than 5 million ton, that’s sufficient for construction of enterprise with capacity of 200 thousand ton of granulated sulphur per year [9]. The average content of native sulfur in plot’s ores makes up 24.3%. For the extraction of ore from open pits the plot has ideal conditions, as it is a peaked watershed between the deep gorges of the rivers Novaya and Chernaya. Island of Kunashir has two sulphur deposits. The promising resources of sulphur on South Kuriles are 316 million ton [10]. This raw material is very scarce in Russia. The estimated value of all resources of sulphur is about 5.6 billion dollars [11]. According to world prices overall assessment of mineral resources (gold, silver, zinc, copper, lead, iron, vanadium, agates, sulfur), without titanomagnetite reserves is at least $ 44 billion dollars [12]. The main mineral resources of the local shelf are titanomagnetite ore in the form of placers mixed with rare earth elements. In the process of geological prospecting and survey works in Kurile Islands more than a dozen sea coastal mineral placers were discovered -

93 magnetite and ilmenite, which are located on the Sea of Okhotsk and the Pacific Coast. According to Sakhalin geologists, most significant of them taking into account total reserves and the content of iron and titanium are the alluvial layers of the Bay Prostor, Ruchar-skoe, Reydovskoe, Zerkalny beach, Roka Bay, that are located on the Island of Iturup. Practically all sea coastal placers of ilmenite and magnetite are characterized by simple geological structure. All of them are connected with modern sediments of the sea beach, sea shore shafts or sand spits. Going landward sea sands are usually replaced with dunes of a height of 20-25 m. The most promising place, according to the number of discovered natural objects, the quantity of included sand and reserves of iron and titanium, is the Island of Iturup. The characteristic features of this island are large bay and inlets, where the most significant deposits of ilmenite-magnetite sands, containing up to 80% of all resources of iron and titanium on the Kurile Islands are located. In the north of Iturup there are largest placers of magnetite and ilmenite as well as the largest iron deposits known in the Kuriles. According to Sakhalin geologists, Rucharskoe deposit is the largest on Kurile Islands and the most examined in the process of geological survey works. Actually, its geological structure is standard for sea coastal placers of magnetite and ilmenite on Kurile Islands. The deposit is located in the extreme northeastern part of the Island of Iturup in the region of Vetrovoi Isthmus near the Sea of Okhotsk. The total area of deposit is approximately 3.5 square km. As well magnetite and ilmenite include vanadium pentoxide. The developed scheme of enrichment of Rucharskoe deposit sands allows to get ilmenite-magnetite concentrate with total iron content of 57.5-59.7%, titanium dioxide 9,8-10 % and vanadium pentoxide of 0.41-0.43%. After proper geological and technological examination Kurile placers can serve as a sound raw material base for the steel industry - the production of high grade vanadium cast iron. Economic potential reserves of titanium-magnetite ores are characterized by following forward-looking estimates. According to Mining Institute of FEBRAS, the explored reserves of titanium-magnetite placers only on the Island of Iturup (Bay of Prostor) are comprised of 248.8 million tons of sand, including 48.8 million tons within island beach and up to 200 million tons in sea coastal parts of these placers. From proven reserves of this deposit can be obtained 37.31 million tons of ore concentrate with total cost of 4477 million dollars, including 29.85 million tons of magnetite concentrate with cost of 2985 million dollars and 7.46 million tons of ilmenite concentrate with cost of 1492 million dollars at the lowest prices of world market in 1992 (respectively 100-120 and 200-250 dollars per ton).

With each successive cycle of mining productions the value of products obtained from titanium raw materials increasingly multiplies. The procession of ore concentrate may result in 17.91 million tons of iron powder worth of 21.492 billion dollars, 3.73 million tons of dioxide titanium worth of 8.313 billion dollars according to world market prices of 1992 (respectively 1200 and 2230 dollars per ton) – with total cost of 29.81 billion dollars. The procession of titanium raw materials (only one deposit in the Bay Prostor on the Island of Iturup) in the last stage may result in 2.23 million tons of titanium metal with a cost of 2 trillion 230 billion dollars, 130.8 thousand tons of vanadium pentoxide, used as an alloying agent in the steel industry, with a cost of 785 million dollars according to world market prices of 1992 (respectively 1000 dollars per kilogram and 6.000 dollars per ton), and in addition to that about 70 million tons of construction sand. Moreover, the titanium raw material in the final stage of procession may result in valuable metal – zirconium, used in the nuclear industry, from the group of rare earth elements. Thus, the estimated cost of final products (only titanium metal, iron powder and vanadium, excluding rare earth metals), which may be produced from titanium-magnetite raw material, is 2252,277 billion dollars according to prices in 1992. Titanium is a metal of 21 century. Therefore, it is quite easy to understand the natural economic interest of Japan, Japanese industry and business in acquisition of “disputed” islands in order to claim the deposits of titanium and other ores and biological resources as their national property, then exploit them and get profits freely and with minimal expenses in favor of Japanese economy. However, at present, sub-region’s economic potential is determined not only by territory but also by adjacent maritime areas, including the economic zone within 200 nautical miles from coast and continental shelf. And this is quite different estimate: area of 200-mile economic zone around South Kurile Islands is about 210 thousand square km, including around Small Kurile Islands - about 100 thousand square km, and around the Islands of Iturup and Kunashir – nearly 110 thousand square km [13], much larger than the area of many states in Europe. According to the same estimates, the total area of economic zone around South Sakhalin and Kurile Islands, transferred to USSR (and Russia) according to Yalta Agreement of Three Great Powers on February 11, 1945, is nearly 1 million square km. In the beginning of 1990-ies, the world production of fish and fishery products was around 70 million tons, including the production in the Soviet Union in 1991 - 11 million tons. At that time the domestic fisheries had more than 10 % of the catch from this sea area (for comparison: all countries of Baltic basin caught about 340 thousand tons of fish.)

According to Roskomrybolovstvo (Russian Committee of Fishing), after USSR collapse and because of general breakdown of Russian economy, about 3.4 million tons of fish and seafood were caught in Russia in 1994. In this context, the role of Far Eastern basin for Russian fishing fleet has increased dramatically and now it accounts for 70-80% of all total catches in Russian Federation. The sum of fish catches in South Kurile fishing area amounted in the year of 2000 to 800 thousand tons, including the area of Small Kuril Islands – 480 thousand tons, and around the islands of Iturup and Kunashir – 320 thousand tons. In case of loss of South Kurile Islands Russia will lose overall stocks of fish and sea products estimated in the volume of 5 million tons, and this quantity may increase at least one and a half times after additional complex examination of this area [14]. One should also keep in mind the factor of permanent potential biological productivity of this basin, which remains very high. The cost of biomass resources of the continental shelf of South Kurile Islands cannot be fixed, because of its actual inexhaustibility. But even in 1980-s the fishermen extracted within 200-mile economic zone around South Kurile Islands up to one and a half million tons of fish, by the way of especially valuable species, as well as invertebrates and seafood: saury, Picton herring, salmon, crabs, squid and other fish. In world prices the cost of fish resources, extracted each year for fish industry was more than 1 billion dollars (about 4 billion). Therefore, it s not only food for Russian people, but also the source of foreign-currency export earnings. The largest fish factories in the region have been located on South Kurile Islands. In addition, the area of South Kurile Islands has great strategic importance in the fishery, taking into account the fact than one part of its 200- mile economic zone wedges into the Sea of Okhotsk, where the value of fish and other resources in our economy is even more extreme. This area is also promising for future production of seafood and sea cabbage, that could provide some economic benefits for our country. Here is the world's richest deposit of red algae, containing 89% of all Far Eastern stocks used in biotechnology [15]. According to experts, twenty first century will be the century of biotechnology and world biopharmaceutical companies, particularly American and Japanese, have at the moment the second level of incomes after military firms. The shelf of these islands comprises potential sources of oil and gas. According to Service of Geology of Sakhalin area, the prospects for hydrocarbon explorations on Kuril Islands are related to the shelf between Large and Small Kuril Islands, which may be transferred to Japan in case of implementation of Tokyo Declaration, signed by Boris Yeltsin on October 13, 1993. Previously it was thought that the shelf of the Kurile Islands does not

96 include a lot of oil and gas. But the results of seismic surveys, the discovery of hydrocarbon deposits on adjacent Island of Hokkaido and increased exploration of oil and gas in some other nearly situated Pacific basins enable to connect the location of oil and gas deposits with offshore area of South Kurile Islands. According to Sakhalin geologists, the largest and most available for exploration in the next few years is Middle Kurile basin, located just to the east of Pacific coast of the Islands of Iturup and Kunashir. The area of the basin is about 14 thousand square km, sedimentary cover - up to 5.5 km. Now the promising resources of Middle Kurile basin are estimated totally as 386 million tons of fuel with an average density of resources 31 thousand tons per 1 square km. Considering the possibility of future discovery and development of other natural mineral resources in offshore area of the islands, it becomes clear that economic and strategic value of the Islands is important not only for the Far East, but also for Russia as a whole. According to estimates of Sakhalin Regional administration, total reserves of mineral resources (without titanomagnetites), fisheries and marine geological resources amount to more than 87 billion dollars [16]. Recreation resources of South Kurile Islands are unique. The Islands have almost untouched environment, valuable mineral water springs, balneotherapy muds and other possibilities for recovery activities, organization of tourism and rest in tourist complexes for residents of the Far East and for foreigners on a paid basis. The island resources, having high economic price, are forest (especially on Kunashir, suitable for use as drill wood), fur bearing animals, birds, local construction materials. According to Sakhalin geologists, the depths of Kurile Islands contain huge, practically inexhaustible reserves of magmatic, metamorphic and sedimentary rocks, suitable for use in various fields of construction. The peculiar geological structure of the region has led to the formation of different kinds of natural building materials. The most common of them are clay rocks (clay, loam and other), silica clay, limestone, pumice, igneous volcanic rock. Explored reserves and prognostic resources of these types of mineral construction raw materials are sufficient to meet the current and future (taking into consideration their further growth) needs of existing consumers. Deposits of building stone and sand are discovered even in such hard-to-reach areas of the region like: Kurile (Island of Iturup) and South Kurile (Island of Kunashir), which has enabled to provide regional construction firms with local natural raw materials. Pumice is of interest as natural soft filler for the production of light concrete and pumice blocks. Within the boundaries of Sakhalin Region the pumice is distributed exclusively on Kurile Islands. Especially large deposits are concentrated on the Island of Iturup near the

97 isthmus Vetrovoi, where they are distributed on an area of several dozen square km and are hundreds of meters thick. Island of Kunashir also has high prospects. In general, the promising raw resources of this type in the region are almost limitless and can satisfy any demand for it. Among the variety of minerals of South Kurile Islands, underground waters occupy a special place, because they are the most accessible and needed raw material. Firstly, it is a source of clean drinking water, secondly - a variety of unique mineral waters with medicinal and nutritive value, thirdly, reserve of iodide-bromine waters for industrial use. Probable reserves of mineral waters here suitable for bottling and purposes of balneology are evaluated here in 44 thousand cube meters per day [17]. Finally, in recent years the attention of specialists was attracted by thermal water and steam energy as an alternative source of heat and electricity. The use of earth’s thermal energy on Kurile Islands is the problem of today. As for these remote islands the absence of large deposits of oil, gas and coal (which are considered as traditional energy resources) was compensated for by nature with considerable reserves of geothermal energy. Prognostic resources of overheated thermal waters are estimated at 86 thousand cubic meters per day, and vapor-water mixtures - 86 thousand tons per day, which is equivalent to the capacity of power plants up to 60-80 MW [18]. The presence of heat and energy resources, which are of interest on Kurile Islands, is associated with the manifestation of modern volcanism and relevant hydrothermal activity. According to Sakhalin geologists, Kurile Islands have two discovered deposits of fresh underground waters with approved reserves: Kurilskoye (Island of Iturup) and Terrasoviy (Island of Kunashir). In the depths of Sakhalin and Kurile Islands there are almost all well-known types of waters, except humic. The variety of mineral waters is associated with the manifestation of modern volcanism. In craters, calderas and deep cracks on the slopes and at the foot of active volcanoes there are thermo-mineral water springs, which are of great importance for healing, because in the process of leaching volcanic rocks are saturated with iron, calcium, sodium, boron, fluorine and other environmentally optimal combination of active ingredients. However at present only several sources are used partially: Goryachie Klyuchi (Hot Springs), Jarkiye vody (Hot waters) - Island of Iturup, Goryachiy Plyazh (Hot Beach) - Island of Kunashir. Therapeutic muds on the territory of South Kurile Islands are widespread. The total resources of all known deposits and occurrences of mineral mud on Kurile islands are evaluated (1999 year) in 2025 thousand cubic meters. In addition, there are reserves of peat here. The peat accumulations that may be developed are known only on Island of Kunashir and Small Kurile

Islands. According to Sakhalin geologists, the area of peat deposits on the Kurile Islands, as a rule, does not exceed 0.5-2.2 thousand hectares. Total reserves of raw peat on Kurile Islands are 51 million cubic meters. Specialists know here South Kuril deposit on the Island of Kunashir with reserves of 8.2 million cubic meters and deposit on the Island of Zeleniy (Green), with reserves estimated at 17.4 million cubic meters. In some cases, peat can be used as fuel in its natural form. The latter is very important for the Kuril Islands in the conditions of absence of coal deposits. Prospective directions of the development of peat accumulations are truly unlimited. In some countries the peat is used as a raw material for chemical and chemical energy industry. By thermal processing of peat the industry can get coke, absorbent carbon, bitumen, wax, humic acids, fodder yeast, ethanol, various dyes, synthetic environmental materials plastics and other by-products. The economic value of these resources can not be determined now fully and in detail. But certainly, as the world economic resources exhaust, their value will increase accordingly. If South Kurile Islands and, thus, adjacent offshore shelf and 200-mile economic zone would be transferred to Japan, Russia would have been deprived of vast riches, including considerable insular, marine biological and mineral resources, strategic straits, and, besides, part of the resources of the Sea of Okhotsk. Moreover, after transfer of South Kurile Islands under Japanese jurisdiction Japan will obtain the right to prohibit fishing in the vicinity of the South Kuriles, using those resources to supply the foods for its own population. If these Islands are transferred, the Russian fishing companies (i.e. Russia) will have to pay in foreign currency to the Japanese government about a billion dollars a year for permission to fish in the area. And this will make worse our economic situation and prospects for supplying population of the Far East and all Russia with fish products. In addition, the Russian vessels will have to pay for the passage from Sea of Okhotsk to the Pacific through the straits ceded to Japan. The acquisition of economic zone in this area by Japan as a result of Russia’s cession of South Kurile Islands will allow Japanese fishing companies to extract here at least 2 million tons of fish and fishery products each year. This direct economic interest is the base of Japan’s claims in the dispute about South Kurile Islands. At present Russian annual catch in this area in world prices ranges from 750 million to 2 billion dollars. If the fish processing based on modern technology will be used, the cost of production may reach 5-7 billion dollars annually. The cost of the offshore area around the South Kurile Islands, according to estimation with US methodology and techniques used while removing lands from agricultural use, is (considering only marine biological resources) from 22-45 up to 60-150 billion dollars [19]. This is the expert evaluation of our future possible losses in the case of cession of the South Kurile Islands.

Strategic, military and economic importance of these islands is enormous. The stock value of biological resources, as well as the forecast reserves of oil, gas, iron-manganese nodules on the ocean floor in these waters, you can calculate the likely damages now and in the future (when the development of these ocean resources will be possible and justified). Taking into account the value of biological resources, probable oilfields, deposits of gas, and iron- manganese nodules at the ocean bottom in these areas, it is possible to estimate the probable losses now and in the future (when the development of these marine resources will be possible and justifiable). According to the preliminary calculations, the estimation of the natural resources of the South Kurile sub-region, even without value assessment of the land, territory and resources of the continental shelf, is at least 2.5 trillion dollars. As the world natural resources will be exhausting this estimation will correspondingly increase. Thus, it is very easy to compare Russia’s economic losses from possible transfer of these Islands to Japan (the loss of explored, discovered and potential mineral and biological resources on the Islands and the continental shelf within 200-mile economic zone, as well as the cost of land, territory of the Islands, and other aspects, including military and maritime transport) and anticipated economic benefits (in the form of repayable loans, some technological assistance, etc.). The satisfaction of Japan’s territorial claims will mean for Russia a sharp deterioration of geostrategic and economic positions in the Far East and Asia- Pacific region that are important for global development at present time and in the near future. Besides, the cession of the South Kurile Islands to Japan will have a negative impact on the domestic economic situation in Russia. The persistent interest of Japan in the South Kurile sub-region is due to the fact that Japan is developing rapidly and is constrained within the national borders. Japan is overpopulated: 130 million people live on the area of 372 thousand square km. And now Japan is striving for solution of geopolitical problem - survival of the Japanese nation in the twenty-first century, by means of expansion of living space and territories. Moreover, economic advantages of "disputed territories" are well calculated in Japan. Therefore, Japan (which is quite natural) increasingly raises ‘territorial issue’ and claims its decision on the basis of “law” and “justice”. The estimates of territorial and economic losses of Russia as a result of possible transfer of the South Kurile Islands to Japan demonstrate persistence, perseverance, effectiveness and potentially high economic efficiency of Japanese foreign policy and diplomacy in North-East Asia and the Far East – on the one hand, and indecision, unreasonable flexibility and weakness of Russian foreign policy in the so-called "Kurile problem" since mid-1950s – on the other hand.

100

It should be recognized that the conclusion of the peace treaty between Japan and Russia by the way of territorial concessions in connection with the so-called "Kurile problem" does not meet long-term Russia’s political, economic and defense interests. It contains obvious geopolitical, territorial and economic losses and damages to the interests of Russia as at present time (for fishing and production of seafood), and in the future (for the exploitation of land and sea bottom resources).

REFERENCES

1. Solovyov A. Kurile Islands, M.; L. “Glavsemmorput” (Northern Sea Route) Publishing House, 1945/ Cоловьев А. Курильские острова. М.; Л.: Изд-во Главсевморпути, 1945; Sergeev M.A.Kurile Islands. M., Publishing House of Geographical literature, 1947/Сергеев М. А. Курильские острова. М.: Гос. изд-во географ. лит-ры, 1947; Geographical Encyclopedia dictionary. Geographical names, second edition, additional. M.,“Soviet Encyclopedia”, 1989/ Географический энциклопедический словарь. Географические названия. 2-е изд., доп. М.: Советская энциклопедия, 1989; Big Encyclopedia dictionary, second edition, revised. M., “Big Russian Encyclopedia” Publishing House, 1998/ Большой энциклопедический словарь. 2-е изд., перераб. и доп. М.: Большая Российская энциклопедия, 1998. 2. Russia and Japan: missed steps on the way to the Peace Treaty, M., Bimpa, 2001, p.12/Россия и Япония: пропущенные вехи на пути к мирному договору. М.: Бимпа, 2001. С. 12. 3. Ponomarev S.A. Soviet – Japanese Declaration of 1956 and the problems of national security. Interested glance from the province//Soviet-Japanese Declaration of 1956 and the problems of national security of Russian Federation. Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, 2001, p.24/ Пономарев С. А. Советско-японская Декларация 1956 года и проблемы национальной безопасности. Заинтересованный взгляд из провинции // Советско- японская Декларация 1956 года и проблемы национальной безопасности Российской Федерации. Южно-Сахалинск, 2001. С. 24. 4. Soviet-Japanese Declaration of 1956 and the problems of national security of Russian Federation. Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, 2001, pp. 216, 222/ Советско-японская Декларация 1956 года и проблемы национальной безопасности Российской Федерации. Южно- Сахалинск, 2001. С. 216, 222. 5. Mineral raw base of Sakhalin and Kurile Islands on the eve of the Third Millenium. Yuzhn-Sakhalinsk: Sakhalin Publishing house, 2000/Минерально-сырьевая база Сахалина и Курильских островов на рубеже третьего тысячелетия. Южно- Сахалинск: Сахалин. кн. изд-во, 2000. 6. Baburin S., Pavlov N., Homeland is not sold, “Soviet Russia”. 1991. October 17, №197, p.2/Бабурин С., Павлов Н. Родиной не торгуют // Советская Россия. 1991. 17 октября, № 197. С. 2. 7. Ibid. 8. Soviet-Japanese Declaration of 1956 and the problems of national security of Russian Federation, p.226/Советско-японская Декларация 1956 года и проблемы национальной безопасности Российской Федерации. С. 226. 9. Ibid.

101

10. Ibid., p. 223 . 11. Baburin S., Pavlov N., Ibid., /Бабурин С., Павлов Н. Указ. соч. 12. Anokhin P., Linkov A. “Disputed territories” cause disputes in Russia//Rossiyskaya gazeta, 1992, July 30, №171, p.2/Aнохин П., Линьков А. "Спорные территории" вызывают споры в России // Российская газета. 1992. 30 июля, № 171. С. 2. 13. Kosov O.A., Yushin A.A. Policy alternatives in the question of the South Kurile Islands should be constructive/South Kuriles: problems of economics, policy and security// Materials of parliamentary hearings. March 18, 2002. M., State Duma Publishing House, 2003, p.57/ Косов О. А., Юшин А. А. Альтернативы политике в вопросе о южных Курилах должны быть конструктивными // Южные Курилы: проблемы экономики, политики и безопасности. Материалы парламентских слушаний. 18 марта 2002 года. М.: Издание Государственной Думы, 2003. С. 57. 14. Soviet – Japanese Declaration of 1956 and the problems of national security of Russian Federation, p.225/Cоветско-японская Декларация 1956 года и проблемы национальной безопасности Российской Федерации, с.25. 15. Russia-Japan. And Kurile Islands between them. Transcript of the closed parliamentary hearings of the Supreme Soviet of the Russian Federation “Russian-Japanese relations and constitutional problem of territorial integrity of Russian Federation. July 28, 1992// Rossiyskaya gazeta, 1992, August 14, №182, p.4/Россия — Япония. А между ними Курилы. Стенограмма закрытых парламентских слушаний Верховного Совета Российской Федерации "Российско-японские отношения и конституционная проблема территориальной целостности Российской Федерации". 28 июля 1992 года // Российская газета. 1992. 14 августа, № 182. С. 4. 16. Ibid. 17. Soviet-Japanese Declaration of 1956 and the problems of national security of Russian Federation, p.226/Советско-японская Декларация 1956 года и проблемы национальной безопасности Российской Федерации. С. 226. 18. Ibid.. 19 Zilanov V. Kurile trap// Rybak Primorya, Vladivostok, 1993, August 20, №34/Зиланов В. Курильская ловушка // Рыбак Приморья. Владивосток, 1993. 20 августа, № 34

102

REPUBLIC OF KOREA`S PLANS ABOUT THE ARCTIC EXPLOITATION AND PERSPECTIVES OF RUSSIAN-KOREAN COOPERATION IN THE REGION

Pavel V. Cherkashin

The article describes South Korea`s approaches to the Arctic development issue, disclose in details its reasons, aims and aspirations, related to this region exploitation perspectives. Author makes an effort to have a look at concrete directions of potential Russian-South Korean cooperation in the Arctic from the point of view their correlation to Russia`s national interests.

Keywords: Russia, Republic of Korea, Arctic, Northern Sea Route, Arctic Council, cooperation, plans.

On the wave of general excitement and increased interest from the world's major powers and the Arctic states to development of the Arctic resources, South Korea, geographically directly not relating to this region, is also seeking opportunities to keep up with them on this issue and to secure a certain positions to itself. This is confirmed by Seoul`s receiving in 2013, along with China, Japan, India, Singapore and Italy the official status of permanent observer in the Arctic Council - main international organization that oversees activities in the Arctic. In order to implement its national economic interests in the Arctic region and foreign policy ambitions on the international stage, ROK is developing and implementing a range of measures that will be discussed below. So, within the framework of the South Korea government's policy towards to the Arctic the needed administrative and legal basis already has been created. In particular, in November 2012, the ROK`s Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs adopted and published the "Plan for policy activation towards to the Arctic regions"[1]. This document provided for development and adoption of an appropriate legal framework, study of foreign states basic laws regulating activities in the Arctic, government support for researches and R&D related to the Arctic marine transportation, fishing, shipbuilding, natural resources exploration and production, formation of an integrated information database on the Arctic issues, friendly relationships installation and interactions between relevant research institutions in the country and abroad, Arctic and Antarctic specialists training, as well as attracting to cooperation the influential members of the Arctic Council and development of specific business models for the Arctic exploration [2]. In 2013, it received a further progress in the form of the "Comprehensive arctic policy implementation plan"[3], which was developed with the

103 participation of a number of South Korean government structures - the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries, the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Energy and the Ministry of Land and Transport. This document is aimed for achieving three main objectives - forming international partnerships in the Arctic, intensification of relevant researches, creation new directions of arctic industry [4]. The document authors offer to implement the planned issues by strengthening basis for international cooperation in the region with the most influential members of the Arctic Council, activation of shipping along the Northern Sea Route, reduction fees for usage equipment and facilities of serving NSR arctic ports, ROK`s participation in "Polar Code" program, which is being developed by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and aimed to regulate requirements and rules for navigation in the Arctic and Antarctic [5]. In addition, it is expected to increase the base for the Arctic and Antarctic researches, as well as to create more specific business models and projects for the Arctic natural resources development [6]. It should be noted that obtaining South Korea, along with China and Japan, the official status of permanent observer in the structure of the Arctic Council in May 2013 in the Swedish city of Kiruna is interpreted in these countries primarily as a "green light" for their entry to the Arctic [7]. In this case, all three Asian states regard each other as direct competitors in creation of the Northern Sea Route`s "hub-ports", as well as in natural resources exploration and usage logistic potential of the Arctic. The Republic of Korea`s interest to the region is largely associated with possibility of the Northern Sea Route exploitation with the largest South Korean ports - Busan, Ulsan, Kwangyang involvement, as well as participation of ROK`s shipbuilding and shipping companies. In connection with prospects of the Arctic resources development and the Northeast and the Northwest Passage use as an international shipping lanes, a number of experts in South Korea point to timely need for Seoul adequate steps capable to provide ROK`s participation in development of the Arctic and northern part of Pacific Ocean main ports, as well as to meet needs of all interested countries in different kinds of ice-class vessels, that are projected to grow as development of the region will increase [8]. However, being a non-Arctic state, the Republic of Korea, realize that, it will be extremely difficult to ensure the realization of their own economic interests in the Arctic by its own means, without outside help, as well as to sustain region competition from China. In this regard, one of the main factors that could have a decisive impact on South Korea`s penetration in the Arctic region and access to development its transport, logistic, energy and natural resources Seoul authorities see the activation and strengthening partnerships with influential states-members of the Arctic Council. And here, according to some South Korean experts, cooperation with Russia seems to be the priority

104 one [9], since according to some assumptions in the region of the Arctic, on which according to the United Nations Convention of the Sea Law spreads the sovereignty and jurisdiction of the Russian Federation, occur the largest hydrocarbon reserves. In addition, in case of the Northern Sea Route exploitation as a new international trade route it would be necessary to pass through water areas controlled by Russia and to use the services of Russian ports, navigation system and icebreaking fleet. It is also Euro-Arctic Council (BEAC) [10]. According to representatives of Korean side, it is advisable to implement a number of specific initiatives to form strong partnership with Russia, suggesting active cooperation in the Arctic. First, basing on already approved the "Comprehensive Arctic policy implementation plan", formulate and adopt at the governmental level "general strategy for cooperation with Russia in the Arctic", and then go out to Moscow with the "Master Plan" signing proposal that supposes Russian-Korean interaction in resource and transport-logistic directions of the Arctic development. Secondly, in order to systematize the mechanisms of bilateral cooperation, offer Russian Federation to create new industrial Committee – on the Arctic issues, under Russian-Korean Joint Commission on Economic, Scientific and Technical Cooperation. In addition, some of the ROK`s researchers are also proposing to establish joint research institute in Russian sector of the Arctic - "Russian-Korean Center for Cooperation and the Arctic studies" (conditional name), which further will be identified as a key "think tank" of bilateral cooperation in the Arctic. Third, jointly with Russian Federation initiate the creation of regional, similar to the Barents Euro-Arctic Council (BEAC), mechanism of multilateral cooperation in the Arctic with conditional name "Asia-Pacific Arctic Council» (APAC), that would let Seoul to rely on increasing its status and role as one of the Arctic region leading countries performing function of the gate, connecting Russia, Asia-Pacific and the Arctic. Fourth, explore projects for possible South Korea businesses participation in region natural resources exploration through acquisition deposits share, development of nuclear technologies and new materials, modernization ports, etc. Fifth, in order to prepare their own qualified specialists on the Arctic region, encourage the support of Korean specialists mastering respective knowledge by their delegation to study in educational institutions of Russia and attract Russian polar specialists in Korea. The priority direction for such cooperation is reinforcement of scientific, technical and humanitarian cooperation with the Lomonosov Northern (Arctic) Federal University. (Arkhangelsk), as well as with being under its control Institute of Shipbuilding and Marine Arctic Technology [11]. In general, it should be noted that, in its concept of construction and development bilateral relations with Russia, concerning cooperation in the Arctic, Republic of Korea comes from the fact that process of Russian Arctic spaces exploitation on purpose consolidation their status, infrastructure

105 development, natural resources exploration and production is rather expensive, and demands from Moscow attraction of large-scale investments, including foreign ones. South Korea is ready to offer them in exchange for guarantees of free access to the Northern Sea Route, as well as in the Russian sector of the Arctic for a wide range of research and exploration [12]. However, according to the author`s opinion, not all of these Korean side`s proposals are beneficial for Russia and meet its national interests. First of all, the initiative to create the so-called "Asia-Pacific Arctic Council" - Russia is not interested in expanding the number of international institutions within which the Arctic development issues are discussed, whether in regional or in global scale. It seems unlikely that ROK`s proposal for establishment of "Russian- Korean Center for Cooperation and the Arctic studies" in Russian Arctic sector can meet a positive response from Russian Federation leadership with the South Korea`s focus on obtaining necessary springboard for their penetration into the Arctic region, as Seoul considers this structure in present time. The possible areas of bilateral cooperation in the Arctic should include russian Arctic ports development and modernization, as evidenced by the fact of signing appropriate memorandum of understanding in January 2014 [13]. Considering Republic of Korea`s overall high level of technological development, as well as rich shipbuilding experience, including specialized one, and port infrastructure development, this area can be considered as one of the most promising. ROK initiative to create a separate industry committee on the Arctic issues within the framework of Russian-Korean Joint Commission on Economic, Scientific and Technical Cooperation makes sense and could be implemented, as it will provide rather effective platform for searching and discussion a specific projects of bilateral cooperation in the Arctic region at the government level and making the relevant decisions. Expediency of joint formulation and adoption "master plan" of Russian- Korean cooperation in the Arctic yet raises questions both in itself and in terms of substantive content of this document, which assumes a certain status of bilateral interaction in this sphere and obligations between the parties. From what could be offered by South Korea, first of all, Russia is interested in investment, large-scale shipbuilding technologies, experience and achievements of port infrastructure development, information and communication technologies, scientific and technical cooperation, joint research and development. At the same time, Seoul is focused on getting an access to development of energy, mineral and other natural resources of the Arctic region, using NSR`s logistic potential, Russian market of specialized large-scale shipbuilding prior occupation and realization of scientific- technical and humanitarian cooperation for obtaining from Russian side a

106 wide range of special knowledge, experience and technological developments, related to researches and economic activities implementation in the Arctic. Having analyzed the above mentioned by taking into account the factor of competition between ROK, China and Japan for access to the Arctic we can conclude, that Seoul is rather interested in cooperation with Russia on the Arctic issues than vice versa. Therefore, the need for the document supposing a large-scale bilateral cooperation in issue of the Arctic, whether it would be "plan", "concept" or "strategy" - is questionable. The introduction of humanitarian and educational exchanges practice, in particular, with the Arctic Federal University and its structures is seemed to be possible on a limited scale in the case of similar actions from Republic of Korea ensuring experience and knowledge transfer on the issues of Russia interest (information technology, shipbuilding, and so on. n.). In the light of recent circumstances, caused by the current policy situation in the world, generated by the crisis in Ukraine and sanctions from Western countries in relation to Russia, in particular with regard to technology transfer and supply of equipment used in developing deep-water and arctic oil and natural gas resources [14], a possible Russian-Korean scientific and technical cooperation in this sphere gets a special relevance. At present Republic of Korea does not have technologies allowing carrying out exploration and production of natural resources in the Arctic, but it is interested in their development and obtaining. In this context, taking into account the Seoul`s neutral position about the regime of anti-Russian sanctions it would be rationally to try to join forces, knowledge, capitals, technologies and achievements of South Korea and Russia in this case, as well as in the field of energy-efficient technologies, creating new materials in order to achieve mutually beneficial results. Summing up the consideration of the theme of South Korea`s interest to the Arctic and prospects for Russian-Korean cooperation in this region, it can be concluded that two countries definitely have potential points of interests convergence and, consequently, opportunities for cooperation in the Arctic. But Russia should not seek to bring it to large-scale and multi-level cooperation, wherein Korean side is definitely interested, limiting single projects, in which the potential of ROK could be implemented in a due measure and in accordance with Russia national interests in the Arctic region.

REFERENCES

1. «Appropriate political plans in point of the Arctic and Antarctic are realized», “Намбукгык матчхумхен кыкчи чончхэк чхучжинханда» // Political briefing web portal. 2012, 27 November. [Web resource]. URL: http://www.korea.kr/policy/economyView.do?newsId=148753121 (in Korean)

107

2. Kim Young Ok, «The current situation and recent trends in the Arctic issue», Ким Юн Ок, “Пукгыкхе исюый чхвегын тонхянгва сисачжом» // KIEP Regional Economic Focus, Vol. 6, No. 40, 2012, 10 December (in Korean) 3. «Vice prime-minister Heong O Seok: The comprehensive arctic policy plan implements on the government level», “Хён О Сок "Чонбу чхавон пуккык чонхапчончхэк чхучжин” // Yonhap news portal. 2013, 25 July. [Web-resource]. URL: http://www.yonhapnews.co.kr/economy/2013/07/250301000000AKR20130725033000002 /HTML (in Korean) 4. «The dream route opens through the Northern Sea Route… Implementation of the comprehensive arctic policy plan», “Ккумый пэкиль» Пуккык ханно йонда… Пуккыкчонхапчончхэк чхучжин” // HelloDD web portal. 2013, 25 July. [Web resource]. URL: http://www.hellodd.com/news/article.html?no=42944 (in Korean) 5. «There will be a test passage through the Northern Sea Route at late august… The comprehensive arctic policy plan formulation», “Пхальвольмаль пуккыкханно сибомунхан… пуккык чонхап чончхэк сурип” // Political briefing web portal. 2013, 25 July. [Web resource]. URL: http://www.korea.kr/policy/economyView.do?newsId=148764988 (in Korean) 6. “Next month there will be a test passage through the Northern Sea Route… The second “Araon” icebreaker construction. Extension of the comprehensive arctic policy implementation plan», “Пуккыкханно сэдаль сибомунхан … Чеи Араонхо мандыльда. Пуккык чонхапчончхэк чхучжин кехвек хвакчон” // Seoul Ilbo news portal. 2013, 26 July. [Web resource]. URL: http://www.seoul.co.kr/news/newsView.php?id=20130726018020 (in Korean) 7. Han Jong Man, Pai Chai University, «The battle of resources and logistics in the Russian Arctic Circle, Хан Чжон Ман, Пэчже тэхаккё, “Росиа пукыкквон чиёкесоый чавон-муллю чончжэн: хёнхван гва исю” // Collected reports of the 8-th KIEP-ERI Seminar «Russia`s regional development plans and international cooperation», ЧепхальчхаKIEP – ERI кондон семина “Росиаый чиёк кэбалькехвек ква кукче хёпнёк”. 2013, 13 July (in Korean) 8. Han Jong Man, Pai Chai University, «The battle of resources and logistics in the Russian Arctic Circle, Хан Чжон Ман, Пэчже тэхаккё, “Росиа пуккыкквон чиёкесоый чавон-муллю чончжэн: хёнхван гва исю” // Collected reports of the 8-th KIEP-ERI Seminar «Russia`s regional development plans and international cooperation», Чепхальчха KIEP – ERI кондон семина “Росиаый чиёк кэбалькехвек ква кукче хёпнёк”. 2013, 13 July (in Korean) 9. Kim Young Ok, «The current situation and recent trends in the Arctic issue», Ким Юн Ок, “Пуккыкхэ исюый чхвегын тонхян гва сисачжом” // KIEP Regional Economic Focus, Vol. 6, No. 40, 2012, 10 December (in Korean) 10. Jeh Sung Hoon, Min Jee Yong, «Russia`s the Arctic development strategy and new opportunities for russian-korean cooperation», Че Сон Хун, Мин Чжи Ён, “Росиаый пуккыккэбальчолляк ква хан-но хёмнёкый сэроун канынсон” // KIEP Studies in Comprehensive Regional Strategies, No. 13-08, 2013, 30 December (in Korean) 11. Jeh Sung Hoon, Min Jee Yong, «Russia`s the Arctic development strategy and new opportunities for russian-korean cooperation», Че Сон Хун, Мин Чжи Ён, “Росиаый Пуккык кэбаль чолляк ква хан-но хёмнёкый сэроун канынсон” // KIEP Studies in Comprehensive Regional Strategies, No. 13-08, 2013, 30 December (in Korean) 12. Kim Young Ok, «The current situation and recent trends in the Arctic issue», Ким ЮнОк, “Пуккыкхэ исюый чхвегын тонхян гва сисачжом” // KIEP Regional Economic Focus, Vol. 6, No. 40, 2012, 10 December (in Korean)

108

13. «Russia and South Korea authorities consolidated bilateral cooperation in ports development» // Fishnews web portal. 2013, 23 January. [Web resource]. URL: http://www.fishnews.ru/news/22817 (in Russian) 14. «The USA will impose hard sanctions against russian oil industry // «Russia`s oil» web portal. 2014, 4 August. [Web resource]. URL: http://www.oilru.com/news/420675 (in Russian)

109

------ARTICLE ABSTRACTS IN RUSSIAN Аннотации и ключевые слова

Дыда, Александр Александрович, Оськин, Дмитрий Александрович, Красюк, Людмила Васильевна, Осокина, Елена Борисовна Символьный синтез законов управления и их применение Работа посвящена проблеме автоматизации процедуры проектирования нелинейных систем управления на основе символьных вычислений и метода точной линеаризации с помощью нелинейной обратной связи. Разработанное программное обеспечение реализует синтез законов управления в символьной форме, что является удобным для дальнейшего анализа, моделирования и практической реализации системы. Приведены и обсуждаются примеры применения к задачам управления электрическим двигателем, манипуляционным роботом и подводным аппаратом. Ключевые слова: символьные вычисления, линеаризация обратной связью, робототехника, синтез закона управления, подводный аппарат.

Егорова, Евгения Николаевна Разливы нефти на морских пространствах: минимизация экономического ущерба Проанализированы методологические подходы к экономической оценке ущерба для окружающей среды, определены их сильные и слабые стороны. Представлена комплексная схема формирования структуры экономического ущерба от внезапных разливов нефти на морских пространствах. Сформулирована проблема минимизации экономического ущерба от разливов нефти, предложена базовая схема процесса решения вышеназванной задачи. Ключевые слова: экономическая оценка ущерба для окружающей среды, минимизация ущерба от разливов нефти, разливы нефти на морских пространствах

Колесник, Роман Владимирович Гидрографический фактор итогов русско-японской войны 1904 — 1905 гг. С целью обес печения навига ци онной безопасности плавания воен ных кораблей и судов в Дальневосточных морях, в частности в Жёлтом море, было орга низовано выполнение гидрографи чес ких исследований мо рей СевероВос точ ного Китая и Дальне го Востока России как со стороны России, так и со сто роны Япо нии. Ре зульта ты этих ра бот на шли своё от раже ние в итогах Русскояпонской войны 1904 — 1905 гг. Ключевые слова: Дальний Восток Рос сии, Япония, Северо-Восточный Китай, безопасность мореплавания, обо ру до ва ние те ат ра, гид ро гра фия, гидроме теорология, навигация, исследования.

110

------Кречетников, Константин Геннадьевич Влияние креативности личности на успешность профессиональной деятельности в морской области Автор рассматривает концептуальное содержание персональной креативности и особенности ее проявления в работе специалистов различных профессиональных областей, влияние творческих способностей и стремлений на успех в карьере члена морского экипажа. Ключевые слова: интеллектуально-творческие ресурсы, креативность, социально-психологическая культура, творческие и нетворческие профессии.

Левченко, Наталья Георгиевна Моделирование информационной системы управления транспортно-логиистическим процессом с применением нечетких нейросетевых технологий В статье предложен метод моделирования плохо формализованного процесса с учетом не только количественных оценок, но и качественных, нечетко заданных, не поддающихся формализации критериев и связей между ними. Модель разрабатывается для последующего исследования этого процесса, прогнозирования его поведения, оптимизации функционирования. Метод базируется на технологии нечетких нейронных сетей. Ключевые слова: транспортно-логистический процесс, информационная система управления, имитационное моделирование, логико-лингвистические модели, интеллектуальное управление, нейронные сети, нечеткая логика.

Осокина, Елена Борисовна, Дыда, Александр Александрович Робастная устойчивость систем управления судном В этой статье рассматривается использование линейных моделей морских подвижных объектов с переменными параметрами и проблемы робастной устойчивости. Приведены примеры проверки робастной устойчивости систем управления судном. Ключевые слова: определитель Гурвица, линейные модели, морские подвижные объекты, полиномы Харитонова, робастная устойчивость

Переславцев, Николай Иванович О корейско-японских разногласиях вокруг островов Лианкур Статья рассказывает о причинах и подоплеке спора между Кореей и Японией вокруг расположенных в Японском море островов Лианкур, детально анализирует аргументы и позицию каждой из сторон с исторической, юридической и экономической точки зрения, предлагает пути и способы решения проблемы с учетом интересов международного сотрудничества и безопасности в регионе. Ключевые слова: Токто, Такесима, острова Лианкур, Япония, Корейский полуостров, Международный суд ООН

111

------Пономарев, Сергей Алексеевич Наши названия нашим островам В статье рассказывается о деятельности Сахалинского отделения Российского географического общества по осуществлению исследований «белых пятен» и примечательных мест на карте Курильских островов и острова Сахалин. Особо обращается внимание на утверждение географических названий, отражающих заслуги русских исследователей. Ключевые слова: Сахалин, Курильские острова, Камчатка, остров, географическое пространство, Тихий Океан

Седов, Виктор Александрович, Седова Нелли Алекссевна МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ РАСХОЖДЕНИЯ СУДОВ В ЗОНЕ ЧРЕЗМЕРНОГО СБЛИЖЕНИЯ НЕЙРОННЫМИ СЕТЯМИ Представлены результаты нейросетевого решения задачи расхождения морских судов в зоне чрезмерного сближения. Показаны методика формирования обучающей выборки, расчет определения числа нейронов в слоях и результаты обучения нейронных сетей на обучающей выборке с пятью методами предобработки. Ключевые слова: обучающий алгоритм, метод отимизации, правила избежания морских столкновений, нейронные сети, обучающая выборка, действия по предотвращению столкновений, ближайшее приближение

Ткаченко, Борис Иванович Значение экономического потенциала Южно-Курильского субрегиона для национальной безопасности России

В статье рассмотрены экономические аспекты "Курильской проблемы" для национальной безопасности России и впервые дана комплексная оценка экономико- стратегической значимости Южно-Курильского субрегиона для России на территории южных островов Курильского архипелага, в прилегающей к ним 200- мильной исключительной экономической зоны и континентального шельфа вокруг этих островов, включая оценку природных, биологических, минерально-сырьевых и рекреационных ресурсов. Ключевые слова: Южно-Курильские острова, экономический потенциал, исключительная экономическая зона, континентальный шельф, природные, биологические, минерально-сырьевые и рекреационные ресурсы, Охотское море, Российская Федерация, Япония.

Черкашин, Павел Валерьевич Планы Республики Корея по исследованию Арктики и перспективы российско-корейского сотрудничества в регионе

В статье описываются подходы Республики Корея к проблеме развития Арктического региона, раскрываются в деталях причины, цели и стремления,

112

применительно к перспективам эксплуатации ресурсов данного региона. Автор делает попытку рассмотреть конкретные направления потенциального российско- южокорейского сотрудничества в Арктике с точки зрения их соответствия российским национальным интересам.

Ключевые слова: Россия, Республика Корея, Арктика, Северный Морской путь, Арктический Совет, сотрудничество, планы.

113

Asia-Pacific Journal Of Marine Science&Education

VOLUME 4. No.2, 2014

ISSN 2221-9935 (Print) ISSN 2306-8000 (Online)

Website: http://marinejournal.msun.ru

Registered with the Federal Service for Supervision in the Sphere of Telecom, Information Technologies and Mass Communications. Registration certificate PI № FS 77-44105 of March 09, 2011. (Свидетельство о регистрации ПИ № ФС 77-44105)

Executive Editor Nikolai I.Pereslavtsev

Published semiannually by Adm. Neleskoy Maritime State University (MSUN)

50a Verhneportovaya st., Vladivostok, Russia, 690059 E-mail: [email protected], [email protected] Phone/Fax: +7(4232) 301-275

114