The Future of ISIS
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Analysis This article examines hypotheses regarding the fate of ISIS, based The Future of ISIS: Strengths on studying and analyzing the conditions, mechanisms, and general features that characterized the organization and Weaknesses during the preceding period. This may help frame the discussion of future scenarios and the main Dynamics of the “Virtual variables of each of them. Caliphate” and the Gap in Neither international and regional policies, nor Arab Counterterrorism Strategies regimes, learned the lesson. They did not seek out the actual and objective causes and circumstances behind the rise of ISIS. The thinking of Dr. Muhammad Abu Rumman counterterrorism strategies and November 2020 policies was only to achieve military victories and security work both on the ground and virtually. 1 The Future of ISIS: Strengths and Weaknesses Dynamics of the “Virtual Caliphate” and the Gap in Counterterrorism Strategies Dr. Muhammad Abu Rumman November 2020 3 Abu Rumman, Muhammad “The Future of ISIS: Strengths and Weaknesses ... Dynamics of the “Virtual Caliphate” and the Gap in Counterterrorism Strategies” - Amman: Friedrich Ebert Foundation, 2020 Published in 2020 by Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Jordan & Iraq FES Jordan & Iraq P.O. Box 941876 Amman 11194 Jordan Email: [email protected] Website: www.fes-jordan.org Not for Sale © Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reprinted, reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means without prior written permission from the publishers. The views and opinions expressed in this publication are solely those of the original author. They do not necessarily represent those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung or the editor. • Cover and internal design: Kamal Qasim Contents Contents Introduction 7 “ISIS boom” – Analytical review of the phenomenon 9 Analysis of strengths and weaknesses “after the collapse of the ISIS state” 13 New dynamics for ISIS 19 Conclusion 21 5 Introduction 1 Introduction On 27 October 2019, US President Donald continents of the world, nothing has remained Trump announced that the leader of the so- of the Islamic State except mobile groups of called Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, fighters who have turned to guerrilla warfare had been killed in the Syrian governorate in the desert stretching between the Iraqi and 1 of Idlib in an American special operation. Syrian borders, and thousands of ISIS followers This came after years of intense security have been killed and detained in prisons and tracking by the largest and most prestigious camps in both Iraq and Syria. intelligence services in the world. During this time, the most dangerous man in the world The organization did not acknowledge the was able to run and hide while his followers defeat of the project and its mission, whether around the world carried out the agenda of in its bloody rule in Iraq and Syria or in the the organization he led, spreading terror from actions that swept the world in the name of America to Europe, Australia, Asia, and Africa, the caliphate and led to the murder of many as well as the Arab world. people on various continents. On the contrary, its leader, al-Baghdadi, and his successor, Al-Baghdadi was not at the height of his power Abu Ibrahim al-Qureshi, believed that, while when he was killed in hiding. At the time of they had lost a battle, the war was ongoing. his death, his organization - which literally And while the organization also lost its state, terrorized the world for nearly five years and the stark irony is that the armed groups who was at the forefront of media attention and the pledged allegiance to the organization, and monitoring of experts on security, terrorism, considered its leader a caliph, continue to and strategic studies - had lost the caliphate declare loyalty to the Islamic State. it had established in Iraq and Syria. While its ideological and political influence extends to all On the financial level, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned on 7 August that ISIS had funds amounting to $300 million, 1 Speech on video by the US President announcing the killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi: https://tinyurl.com/ which remained with it after the removal of yxz44ya3. 7 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Jordan & Iraq - The Future of ISIS: Strengths and Weaknesses Dynamics of the “Virtual Caliphate” and the Gap in Counterterrorism Strategies the «caliphate» in Iraq and Syria. In a report reflect deeply and accurately before we rush he submitted to the Security Council on the to prefer a particular scenario or direction threat of the organization, Guterres said that among the organization’s expected directions the drop in its attacks «could be temporary.» in the coming period. Some believe that the He said he was certain that the organization ISIS venture has ended, while others, on the could direct these funds to support terrorist contrary, believe that it is entering a new acts inside and outside Iraq and Syria through season that may be no less dangerous and informal money transfer companies. It also has consequential as before. To date, questions, financial self-sufficiency through a network of debates, and narratives about the rise of the supporters and groups affiliated with it in other organization and the secret of its attraction- areas in the Middle East, Africa and Asia2. its ability to integrate and recruit tens of thousands of followers from various ethnicities, What ISIS accomplished during the period of cultures, and languages-remain a source its rise and growth represents a “quantum of discussion and debate among scholars, leap” in the ideology, strategies, and operating experts, and politicians. The topic of the future theories of terrorist groups, not only Islamist of the organization is no less complex and groups but also various ideological and multifaceted than the issues surrounding the nationalist groups. The organization turned organization’s spread, rise, and boom. the previous dynamics on their head and created an unprecedented situation in terms In this article, we will examine the expected of the rise of sources of security threats in the hypotheses for the fate of the organization, world and the region.3 This means we must based on studying and analyzing the conditions, mechanisms, and general features that characterized the organization during the preceding period. This may help frame the discussion of future scenarios and the main variables in each of them. 2 See: “In numbers…The United Nations Reveals Total Wealth of Daesh”, Sky News Arabia, https://tinyurl. com/y59sgfn8 3 Mohammed Abu Rumman, “The Secret of Attraction: ISIS Propaganda and Recruitment,” in the book The Secret of Attraction: ISIS Propaganda and Recruitment, Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Amman, 1st edition, 2014, pp. 9-16. 8 “ISIS boom” – Analytical review of the phenomenon 2 “ISIS boom” – Analytical review of the phenomenon The topic of ISIS goes beyond the issue of Iranian influence and Shiites.4 This is despite establishing an extremist religious state in the fact that, as part of its embrace of Islamic Iraq and Syria, since these states or authorities heritage, the organization was eager to link the have historic precedents, whether the Islamic (claimed) caliph to the lineage of the Prophet experience (the Taliban model in Afghanistan Mohammed (pbuh). While the organization is similar to some degree, as are the emirates had established a rudimentary state, including established by Islamic groups in parts of Asia its interpretation of the provisions of Islamic law, it was established only in the “ideological and Africa). ISIS has transcended the borders imagination” of Islamic extremists. It was able of the “establishment of a state in a specific to attract thousands of educated people, region” to become a global phenomenon, scholars, Europeans, and talented people or more precisely, a global political and in the West, including doctors, students, ideological message. The organization has teachers, and engineers.5 Paradoxically, overturned global theories on the operation while ISIS viewed women from an extremist of terrorist groups, brought about a leap in perspective, even by the standards of Islamism, methods of recruitment, mobilization, and the organization also attracted thousands of political propaganda, greatly affected regional women, among them hundreds of educated and global security, and restored and revived European, Arab, and Muslim women, some of traditional historical concepts, such as the whom held leadership positions. One of them, caliphate and the strict application of Sharia. Dr. Iman al-Bagha, was considered the main At the moment, we find many contradictions in the “ISIS phenomenon.” For example, 4 Hassan Abu Hanieh and Mohammed Abu Rumman, The “Islamic State” Organization: The Sunni Crisis despite adopting global rhetoric, its tone was and the Struggle of Global Jihadism, Friedrich Ebert sectarian and focused on the Sunni crisis, Foundation, Amman, 1st edition, 2015, pp. 26-67. 5 Richard Barrett, “Beyond the Caliphate: Foreign and its key leadership was Iraqi and hostile to Fighters and the Threat of Returnees,” Soufan Center, translated by Amal and Shannan, Idrak Center for Studies and Consultations: https://tinyurl. com/y36699cr. 9 Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Jordan & Iraq - The Future of ISIS: Strengths and Weaknesses Dynamics of the “Virtual Caliphate” and the Gap in Counterterrorism Strategies mufti in the organization.6 ISIS developed its ideology of Al-Qaeda, which deemphasizes militant media discourse to become