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The Dominant Explorer in Japan

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The Dominant Explorer in Japan Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research [email protected] Japan Gold Corp. (TSXV: JG) Initiation Report December 16, 2019 The Dominant Explorer in Japan We are initiating coverage on Japan Gold, the first mover in the historic low-sulphidation epithermal gold mining districts of Japan. When the government of Japan opened its doors to foreign mining investment in 2012, Japan Gold was the first Canadian explorer to move into this richly endowed country where gold exploration had been largely on the backburner since 1943. With 24 gold projects encompassed in a massive 127,894 ha portfolio that holds over 40 historic gold mines and a world-renowned team, we favor Japan Gold’s chances of becoming the prominent player in Japan. Investment Thesis: Leading the pack but not priced as such. Japan Gold was the first to stake ground in Japan and have built an impressive and strategic portfolio overlying an impressive number of historic mines. In spite of their early-entrant strategy, the company’s pricing (~C$32M Market Cap) lags that of a more recent entrant, peer explorer Irving Resources Inc. (CSE:IRV) (~C$160M Market Cap) that controls a significantly smaller (76,152 ha) and arguably less strategic portfolio. Employing modern exploration in well-endowed terrain. With gold exploration and mining having fallen out of focus throughout Japan in WWII, many of the country’s historic mines have yet to be fully assessed using modern exploration techniques. In a country where very high-grade deposits are prevalent, most historic areas have only seen selective shallow mining in known areas. As a result, we expect that there remains much to discover throughout the country’s various gold provinces, both along trend and at depth of the known deposits. Impressive team has the bench strength to find and build mines. Japan Gold boasts a deep management team with gold mining and exploration expertise both throughout Japan and internationally and we believe this could be a key driver for the success of this company. Notably, this team has strong ties to Sumitomo Corp, currently the only gold producer in Japan from their super high-grade Hishikari mine, around which Japan Gold has several projects. Valuation: The market has still not priced Japan Gold’s unique opportunity for uncommon exploration success. We are expecting a positive re-rating as the company releases drilling results at the Kitano-O project in northern Hokkaido and the Ohra-Takamine project in southern Kyushu as well as continued systematic exploration throughout its wider portfolio. We have used a probability weighted average to derive a blended case fair value of $0.70/sh, but also an upside case of $1.44/sh. Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research Executive Summary Table of Contents We like Japan Gold’s first mover advantage, its deep exploration bench Executive Summary ............................... 1 strength and diverse portfolio of highly prospective assets as they offer Investment Thesis .................................. 1 a relatively low risk option on exploration success. Although gold exploration in Japan has been largely dormant over the better part of a Catalysts ................................................. 6 century, Japan offers a first world, favorable jurisdiction including a Valuation ................................................ 6 straightforward permitting system and infrastructure from a well- established base metal mining industry. With 24 gold projects, Japan Gold’s Relative Valuation ................................. 8 team has been consolidating historical data and conducting surface work Infrastructure ......................................... 8 in an effort to close in on priority targets to advance towards drill testing. Permitting ............................................... 9 This includes the Ikutahara project in the Kitami Metallogenic province in Hokkaido with a total of 17 gold prospects. At the Kitano-O property in this Kyushu Portfolio ................................. 10 region, the company has launched a phase 1 initial drill program of 3,000 m Hokkaido Portfolio .............................. 14 to be completed in December. At the Ohra-Takamine project in Kyushu that holds five gold prospects in the vicinity of the Hishikari mine, a first Honshu Portfolio ..................................18 phase 2,100m drill program has commenced. Risks ..................................................... 22 Upcoming Catalysts: Appendix A – Management ............... 23 Appendix B –Board of Directors ...... 25 1. Drill results from Hokkaido and Kyushu projects (H1/20). 2. Potential JV partnerships with major and mid-tier producers. Appendix C – Board of Advisors ...... 26 3. Surface exploration updates throughout wider property area. Investment Thesis First Mover in a Top Tier Country. The country of Japan has one of the most diverse and advanced economies Japan Gold is based in a top-tier in the world. It is also extremely politically stable and transparent. Having these aspects combined with excellent exploration targets that have been jurisdiction and has attracted “frozen in time” for 75 years presents investors with a unique investment prominent investors opportunity. This is why the company has already attracted the likes of Newmont Goldcorp, RCF, Donald Smith & Co. and major Japanese Funds prior to drilling a single hole. Lastly, it’s still underknown to many investors and modestly valued. The Hishikari Gold Mine – A Crown Jewel Hishikari is owned by Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. Ltd. and has yielded over > 7.6M oz of Au since its commissioning and is still operating today. The mine is relatively shallow and boasts a head grade of approximately 40 g/t, making it one of the highest-grade gold mines ever. Its production is approximately 225K oz. per annum. The deposit is recognized as a classic low-sulphidation epithermal gold system, which is common along the Ring of Fire of the Pacific tectonic plate. As with many types of deposits, epithermal low-sulphidation mineralization tends to occur in groups or clusters. Thus, it’s unlikely that Hishikari is the only giant gold mine on the Japanese archipelago, though to date it has been a unique occurrence in terms of size and grade. However, there are in fact six different epithermal gold provinces identified in Japan. These systems result from the country’s string of subduction-related islands. Other areas on, or adjacent to the Ring of Fire include Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Chile, Peru, Nevada and New Zealand. These areas have produced massive low-sulphidation epithermal gold deposits. Some major examples include: December 16, 2019 1 The Dominant Explorer in Japan Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research - Round Mountain Mine in Nevada (Produced > 15M oz Au, Resources of 7M oz of Au and 3.1M oz of Ag) - Lihir Mine in Papua New Guinea (Produced > 9M oz Au, Reserves 24M oz) - Vatukoula Mine in Fiji (Produced > 7M oz Au, Reserves 4M oz) - Gosowong Mine in Indonesia (Produced > 5.7M oz at avg 21.7 g/t Au) - Pierina Mine in Peru (Produced 4.7M oz Au and 11.8M oz Ag, bought by Barrick in 1996 for $800M before a resource calculation) - Waihi Mine in New Zealand (Produced > 3.0M oz Au and 6.2M oz Ag, Reserves of 1.9M oz Au and 5.8M oz Ag) - Sleeper Mine in Nevada (Produced 1.7M oz Au and 2.3M oz Ag, Resources 4.6M oz Au, 35.6M oz Ag) Mining History in Japan And the Opportunity it Presents Despite having five million plus ounce gold deposits and several high-grade gold mines dating back over 500 years (Figure 1, Takatama, Sado and Yamagano mines) Japan has seen almost no exploration and mining since World War II. Interestingly, gold mining in Japan was actually Japan has seen virtually no outlawed in 1943 when a government moratorium was placed on its exploration and mining since production, as human resources were diverted to base metal production for WWII the war effort. At that time, the country closed 76 different producing gold mines, with 64 of them still closed today. Significantly, there were no foreign mining companies permitted in the country at that time and that situation remained the case for the ensuing 75 years. Post WWII, only 12 of the 76 mines were restarted and very little attention was placed on gold exploration for a number of reasons. Japan desperately needed to rebuild itself after the war (essentially from the ground up). Resources to support major infrastructure and industrial expansion were the focus for decades after the war. Japan being a relatively small country with a disproportionate amount of people for its size, the government incentivized its mining and investment companies to “venture abroad and bring resources back home”. Successful examples of these are very familiar to large base metal companies and investors (in order of decreasing market capitalization – Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Itochu, Sumitomo, JX Nippon, Marubeni, Toyota Tsusho & Sojitz,). Gold was simply an afterthought in post war Japan. Additionally, the country’s leaders had a prevailing belief that whatever gold it had, had already been discovered. All that changed with the discovery of the Hishikari mine find in 1981. Just as the legendary Hishikari mine discovery began to excite the people of Japan; a major structural economic shift was reshaping the cultural and business landscape there. Foreign investment in all things in Japan sent the value of the Japanese Yen soaring from 360¥/$ in 1971 to 120¥/USD in 1985. Naturally, gold loses its attractiveness as an asset class when a country’s own currency more than doubles in the span of about a decade. Not surprisingly, Japanese companies used their red-hot ¥ to fund the importation of metal concentrates to feed their numerous smelters and refineries (Al, Cu, Zn, Steel, etc.) December 16, 2019 2 The Dominant Explorer in Japan Jacob Willoughby | VP, Research Figure 1: Significant Gold Production in Japan Contained Gold Grade Deposit Location Years of Operation Gold (oz) (g/t) Hishikari* 8,400,000 47.3 S. Kyushu 1985 - Present Sado 2,500,000 5.1 N. Honshu 1601-1970 Konomai 2,346,950 6.4 NE.
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