August Crop Production
Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing
Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch
August 12, 2021 Data Sources
Operator Reported Ag Yield Sample Size = 18,630 July 29 - August 6 Survey
Field Objective Yield Sample Size = 1,155 July 25 - August 1 Survey Winter Wheat
Remotely Sensed Time Series 250 Meter Focus Area Imagery Through (Satellite) MODIS Satellite Data Corn Belt August July 27
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Ag Yield Survey Sample Sizes
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Corn Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels) United States 92,692 84,495 174.6 14,750,368 % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.1 ↑ 2.5 ↑ 1.5 ↑ 4.0
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Bushels/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bushels) % ∆ PY Iowa 13,100 ↓ 3.7 12,650 ↓ 1.9 193 ↑ 8.4 2,441,450 ↑ 6.3 Illinois 11,200 ↓ 0.9 11,000 ↓ 0.9 214 ↑ 11.5 2,354,000 ↑ 10.5 Nebraska 9,700 ↓ 4.9 9,400 ↓ 5.0 186 ↑ 2.8 1,748,400 ↓ 2.3 Minnesota 8,500 ↑ 6.3 8,000 ↑ 6.5 166 ↓ 13.5 1,328,000 ↓ 7.9 Indiana 5,400 NC 5,250 NC 194 ↑ 3.7 1,018,500 ↑ 3.7
August 12, 2021 Corn Yield United States
Bushels per Acre
190 176.6176.4 180 174.6 174.6 171.0 172.0 168.4 167.5 170 164.4 160.3 158.1 160 153.3 152.6 149.1150.7 147.9 146.8 150 142.2 138.6 136.9138.2 134.4133.8 140 131.5 129.3 127.1126.7 130 123.1
120 113.5 110 100.7 100 90 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Corn Yield Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year
August 12, 2021 Corn Production United States
Billion Bushels
16.0 15.1 14.6 14.8 14.2 14.3 14.2 13.8 13.6 13.6 14.0
12.0 10.8
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
August 12, 2021 2021 U.S. Corn Production Industry Expectations vs NASS
Billion Bushels 15.3
15.2
15.1
15.0
14.9
14.8
14.7 August September October November Final Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Soybeans Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels) United States 87,555 86,720 50.0 4,338,853 % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 5.4 ↑ 5.3 ↓ 0.4 ↑ 4.9
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Bushels/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bushels) % ∆ PY Illinois 10,700 ↑ 3.9 10,650 ↑ 3.9 64.0 ↑ 8.5 681,600 ↑ 12.7 Iowa 9,900 ↑ 5.3 9,820 ↑ 5.4 58.0 ↑ 9.4 569,560 ↑ 15.3 Indiana 5,700 NC 5,690 ↑ 0.2 60.0 ↑ 3.4 341,400 ↑ 3.6 Minnesota 7,700 ↑ 4.1 7,630 ↑ 4.1 43.0 ↓ 12.2 328,090 ↓ 8.7 Nebraska 5,400 ↑ 3.8 5,350 ↑ 3.7 60.0 ↑ 5.3 321,000 ↑ 9.1
August 12, 2021 Soybean Yield United States
Bushels per Acre
54 51.9 50.6 50.2 50.0 49.3 48.0 49 47.5 47.4
44.0 44.0 43.5 43.1 42.9 44 42.2 42.0 41.4 41.7
39.6 39.7 40.0 38.9 38.9 38.1 39 37.6 37.6 38.0 36.6 35.3 33.9 34 32.6
29 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Soybean Yield Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year
August 12, 2021 Soybean Production United States
Billion Bushels
5.0 4.41 4.43 4.5 4.30 4.34 4.14 3.93 3.93 4.0 3.55 3.5 3.36 3.04 3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
August 12, 2021 2021 U.S. Soybean Production Industry Expectations vs NASS
Billion Bushels 4.50
4.45
4.40
4.35
4.30
4.25 August September October November Final Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Cotton Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Pounds/Acre) (1,000 Bales) United States 11,719 10,356 800 17,264 % Change from Previous Estimate NC N/A N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 3.1 ↑ 25.1 ↓ 5.5 ↑ 18.2
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Pounds/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bales) % ∆ PY Texas 6,722 ↓ 1.7 5,521 ↑ 70.9 621 ↓ 9.3 7,140 ↑ 54.8 Georgia 1,200 ↑ 0.8 1,190 ↑ 0.8 928 ↑ 4.6 2,300 ↑ 5.5 Mississippi 490 ↓ 7.5 475 ↓ 9.5 1,142 ↑ 5.8 1,130 ↓ 4.2 Arkansas 410 ↓ 21.9 405 ↓ 22.1 1,161 ↓ 1.5 980 ↓ 23.3 Missouri 390 ↑ 32.2 381 ↑ 32.8 1,228 ↑ 7.3 975 ↑ 42.5
August 12, 2021 Cotton Yield United States
Pounds per Acre
980
905 930 892 879 882 867 880 855 847 831 838 831 822 814 813 812 800 830 790 776 766 780 730 730 700 708 705 705 673 665 680 625 632 630 606 607
580 537 530 480 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Cotton Yield Pounds and Percent Change from Previous Year
August 12, 2021 Cotton Production United States
Million Bales
25.0
20.9 19.9 20.0 18.4 17.3 17.2 17.3 16.3 14.6 15.0 12.9 12.9
10.0
5.0
0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
August 12, 2021 2021 U.S. Cotton Production Industry Expectations vs NASS
Million Bales 19.00 18.80 18.60 18.40 18.20 18.00 17.80 17.60 17.40 17.20 17.00 August September October November December Final
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Sorghum Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels) United States 6,490 5,785 70.8 409,385 % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC N/A N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 10.4 ↑ 13.5 ↓ 3.3 ↑ 9.8
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Bushels/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bushels) % ∆ PY Kansas 3,200 ↑ 6.7 3,000 ↑ 7.1 80.0 ↓ 5.9 240,000 ↑ 0.8 Texas 2,000 ↑ 11.1 1,700 ↑ 13.3 64.0 ↑ 1.6 108,800 ↑ 15.1 Nebraska 280 ↑ 43.6 230 ↑ 53.3 82.0 ↓ 9.9 18,860 ↑ 38.2 Oklahoma 340 ↑ 11.5 280 ↑ 21.7 58.0 ↑ 28.9 16,240 ↑ 56.9 South Dakota 250 ↑ 19.0 210 ↑ 31.3 64.0 ↓ 9.9 13,440 ↑ 18.3
August 12, 2021 Sorghum Yield United States
Bushels per Acre
80.0 77.9 76.0
73.2 73.2 75.0 72.6 72.7 73.0 71.9 71.7 72.1 70.8 69.2 69.7 69.6 69.4 68.5 70.0 67.3 67.3 67.6 65.1 65.0 60.9 59.9 59.9 59.6 60.0 55.6 56.1 54.0 55.0 52.7 50.6 49.6 50.0
45.0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Sorghum Yield Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year
August 12, 2021 Sorghum Production United States
Billion Bushels
0.7 0.597 0.6
0.5 0.480 0.433 0.392 0.409 0.4 0.362 0.365 0.373 0.341
0.3 0.248
0.2
0.1
0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
August 12, 2021 United States Winter Wheat Progress Percent Harvested Percent 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 5/30 6/6 6/13 6/20 6/27 7/4 7/11 7/18 7/25 8/1 8/8 8/15 8/22 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Winter Wheat Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels) United States 33,683 25,443 51.8 1,318,735 % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 3.4 ↓ 3.3
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 10.7 ↑ 10.5 ↑ 1.8 ↑ 12.6
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Bushels/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bushels) % ∆ PY Kansas 7,300 ↑ 10.6 6,900 ↑ 10.4 55.0 ↑ 22.2 379,500 ↑ 34.9 Oklahoma 4,300 ↑ 1.2 2,700 ↑ 3.8 40.0 NC 108,000 ↑ 3.8 Texas 5,600 ↑ 14.3 2,250 ↑ 9.8 37.0 ↑ 23.3 83,250 ↑ 35.4 Washington 1,750 ↓ 2.8 1,690 ↓ 3.4 44.0 ↓ 42.1 74,360 ↓ 44.1 Colorado 2,150 ↑ 13.2 1,850 ↑ 21.7 39.0 ↑ 44.4 72,150 ↑ 75.8
August 12, 2021 Winter Wheat Yield United States
Bushels per Acre
61.0
55.3 56.0 53.6 51.8 50.9 50.2 51.0 47.8 47.9 47.3 46.9 46.7 47.1 47.1 46.5 46.1 44.6 44.6 44.3 44.0 46.0 43.4 43.5 42.6 42.5 41.6 41.7 40.2 40.2 41.0 38.2 38.2 37.7 37.1 36.0
31.0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Winter Wheat Yield Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
August 12, 2021 Winter Wheat Production United States
Billion Bushels
2.0
1.8 1.63 1.67 1.54 1.6 1.38 1.37 1.4 1.27 1.32 1.32 1.18 1.17 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Winter Wheat Objective Yield Percent of Samples Processed in the Lab
Percent
100
90
80
70
60
50 97 94 93 93 89 92 40 68 69 69 30 64 64 50 20 28 10 21 18 14 8 7
0
July July July July July July
June June June June June June
August August August August August August 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Mature
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Winter Wheat Objective Yield Heads per Square Foot and Yield for 10 State Region Heads per Square Foot Bushels per Acre 50 55
53 48 51
46 49
47 44 45 42 43
40 41
39 38 37
36 35
July July July July July July
June June June June June June
Final Final Final Final Final Final
August August August August August August 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Heads per Square Foot Yield
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Winter Wheat Production United States by Class
Production Unit Hard Red Winter Wheat Production (1,000 Units) United States Hard Red Winter Wheat 776,855 Bu Million Bushels 1,200 1,082 % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 3.4 998 1,000 830 845 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 17.9 777 800 747 739 750 Soft Red Winter Wheat 365,508 Bu 662 659 600 % Change from Previous Estimate ↑ 1.0 400 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 37.3 200
White Winter Wheat 176,372 Bu 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 10.7 % Change from Previous Season ↓ 28.3
White Winter Wheat Production Soft Red Winter Wheat Production United States United States
Million Bushels Million Bushels
300 600 568
245 246 250 236 232 500 220 227 227 455 413 200 184 185 400 366 176 359 345 293 286 150 300 266 240
100 200
50 100
0 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
August 12, 2021 2021 U.S. Winter Wheat Production Industry Expectations vs NASS
Billion Bushels 1.40
1.35
1.30
1.25
1.20
1.15
1.10
1.05 May June July August Final
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Other Spring Wheat Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels) United States 11,580 11,215 30.6 343,410 % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 0.3 ↓ 0.3
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 5.5 ↓ 7.0 ↓ 37.0 ↓ 41.4
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Bushels/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bushels) % ∆ PY North Dakota 5,950 ↑ 4.4 5,750 ↑ 2.1 30.0 ↓ 38.8 172,500 ↓ 37.5 Montana 2,600 ↓ 21.2 2,550 ↓ 22.3 20.0 ↓ 47.4 51,000 ↓ 59.1 Minnesota 1,220 ↓ 14.7 1,180 ↓ 13.2 42.0 ↓ 20.8 49,560 ↓ 31.2 Idaho 520 ↑ 2.0 495 NC 70.0 ↓ 23.1 34,650 ↓ 23.1 Washington 560 ↑ 3.7 540 ↑ 0.9 35.0 ↓ 42.6 18,900 ↓ 42.1
August 12, 2021 Other Spring Wheat Yield United States
Bushels per Acre
51.0 48.3 48.3 48.6 47.3 47.1 46.7 46.1 46.2 45.2 46.0 44.9 43.2 41.8 41.0 40.5 41.0 39.5 38.4 37.7 37.1 37.1
35.2 36.0 35.1 34.9 33.7 34.1 33.2 31.8 32.2 30.6 29.9 31.0 29.1
26.0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Other Spring Wheat Yield Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
August 12, 2021 Other Spring Wheat Production United States
Billion Bushels
0.7 0.623 0.595 0.603 0.586 0.6 0.561 0.540 0.534 0.532 0.5 0.416 0.4 0.343
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
August 12, 2021 2021 U.S. Other Spring Wheat Production Industry Expectations vs NASS
Billion Bushels 0.600
0.550
0.500
0.450
0.400
0.350
0.300
0.250 July August Final
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Durum Wheat Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Bushels/Acre) (1,000 Bushels) United States 1,480 1,444 24.0 34,660 % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 7.0 ↓ 6.9
% Change from Previous Season ↓ 12.1 ↓ 13.1 ↓ 42.0 ↓ 49.6
Top 5 States - By Production Planted Harvested Yield Production (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (1,000 Acres) % ∆ PY (Bushels/Acre) % ∆ PY (1,000 Bushels) % ∆ PY North Dakota 750 ↓ 17.6 725 ↓ 19.9 22.0 ↓ 43.6 15,950 ↓ 54.8 Montana 650 ↓ 5.8 645 ↓ 5.8 18.0 ↓ 53.8 11,610 ↓ 56.5 Arizona 50 ↑ 13.6 49 ↑ 14.0 95.0 ↓ 4.0 4,655 ↑ 9.3 California 25 ↓ 16.7 20 NC 100.0 ↑ 14.9 2,000 ↑ 14.9 Idaho 5 ↓ 50.0 5 ↓ 44.4 89.0 NC 445 ↓ 44.4
August 12, 2021 Durum Wheat Yield United States
Bushels per Acre
48.0 45.8
44.0 44.0 44.0 43.3
43.0 41.2 41.4 40.2 39.7 39.5 38.0 38.4 37.2 38.0 37.0 36.8 35.6 34.1 33.6 33.7 32.6 33.0 31.3 30.5 30.7 30.0 29.5 29.5
27.6 27.8 28.0 26.0
24.0
23.0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Durum Wheat Yield Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Month
August 12, 2021 Durum Wheat Production United States
Billion Bushels
0.12 0.104 0.10 0.082 0.084 0.078 0.08 0.069 0.058 0.06 0.054 0.055 0.054
0.04 0.035
0.02
0.00 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
August 12, 2021 2021 U.S. Durum Wheat Production Industry Expectations vs NASS
Billion Bushels 0.070 0.065 0.060 0.055 0.050 0.045 0.040 0.035 0.030 0.025 July August Final
Individual Industry Expectation NASS Estimate
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Field Crops Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Unit Production Unit (1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units) Barley 2,603 2,044 51.6 Bu 105,557 Bu % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↓ 7.7 ↓ 7.6 % Change from Previous Season ↓ 0.7 ↓ 4.2 ↓ 33.4 ↓ 36.2 Dry Edible Beans 1,455 1,391 1,675 Lb 23,302 Cwt % Change from Previous Estimate ↓ 3.5 ↓ 3.5 N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season ↓ 16.4 ↓ 17.0 ↓ 14.8 ↓ 29.3 Alfalfa Hay N/A 16,123 2.97 Ton 47,813 Ton % Change from Previous Estimate N/A NC N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 0.7 ↓ 9.2 ↓ 9.9 Other Hay N/A 35,414 2.00 Ton 70,927 Ton % Change from Previous Estimate N/A NC N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 1.6 ↓ 2.4 ↓ 3.8 Hops N/A 60.8 1,924 Lb 116,880 Lb % Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↑ <0.1 N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 3.6 ↑ 8.7 ↑ 12.6
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Field Crops Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Unit Production Unit
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units) Oats 2,352 722 57.4 Bu 41,431 Bu % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC ↑ 0.3 ↑ 0.3 % Change from Previous Season ↓ 21.2 ↓ 28.1 ↓ 11.8 ↓ 36.6 Peanuts 1,633 1,587 4,183 Lb 6,635,800 Lb % Change from Previous Estimate NC ↓ 0.6 N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season ↓ 1.9 ↓ 1.8 ↑ 10.2 ↑ 8.2 Rice 2,661 2,616 7,544 Lb 197,360 Cwt % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season ↓ 12.4 ↓ 12.4 ↓ 1.0 ↓ 13.3 Sugarbeets 1,163 1,134 29.7 Ton 33,710 Ton % Change from Previous Estimate NC NC N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season ↑ 0.1 ↓ 0.8 ↑ 1.0 ↑ 0.3 Sugarcane N/A 932 36.8 Ton 34,305 Ton % Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↓ 1.7 N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season N/A ↓ 1.6 ↓ 3.4 ↓ 5.0
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Field Crops Acreage, Yield, and Production
Planted Harvested Yield Unit Production Unit
(1,000 Acres) (1,000 Acres) (Units per Acre) (1,000 Units) Tobacco N/A 224 2,096 Lb 469,725 Lb % Change from Previous Estimate N/A ↓ 0.2 N/A N/A % Change from Previous Season N/A ↑ 13.1 ↑ 6.6 ↑ 20.6
August 12, 2021 August 2021 Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts Production
Apple Production United States Production Unit Billion Pounds 14.0 (1,000 Units) 11.9 11.5 11.6 12.0 11.1 10.5 10.5 Apples 10,525,000 Lb 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.0 % Change from Previous Estimate N/A 9.0 8.0 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 2.7 6.0 Cranberries 7,900 Brl 4.0 % Change from Previous Estimate N/A 2.0 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 0.9 0.0 Grapes 6,470 Ton 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 % Change from Previous Estimate N/A
% Change from Previous Season ↑ 8.9 Grape Production Peaches 697 Ton United States Million Tons % Change from Previous Estimate N/A 10 % Change from Previous Season ↑ 12.7 9 8.63 7.88 7.70 8 7.53 7.62 7.38 7.60 6.96 Pears 670 Ton 7 6.47 5.94 6 % Change from Previous Estimate N/A 5 % Change from Previous Season ↓ 0.3 4 3 2 1 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
August 12, 2021 Selected Upcoming Reports
August 18 Farm Computer Usage and Ownership
Cattle on Feed August 20 Rice Stocks
August 27 Cash Rents - County
Agricultural Prices August 31 Mushrooms
Cotton System September 1 Fats & Oils Grain Crushings
September 8 Citrus Fruits
Cotton Ginnings September 10 Crop Production
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