Understanding risks and its transboundary nature in the Hindu Kush

A presentation based on the HIMAP report chapter prepared by: Ramesh Ananda Vaidya, Mandira Singh Shrestha, Nusrat Nasab, Deo Raj Gurung, Kozo Nagami, Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Robert James Wasson, Arun Bhakta Shrestha, Chanda Gurung Goodrich, Ajay Bajracharya.

Neera Shrestha Pradhan, PhD, MSc, BE (Civil) Programme Coordinator- Integrated Water Resources Management for Livelihood Development Water and Adaptation Specialist [email protected]

International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Kathmandu,

Disaster statistics from 1990-2012

in the HKH region Cumulativedisaster events

The region has had an average of 76 disaster events each year.

Source: EM-DAT – The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Mountain communities in the HKH live in a multi-hazard environment

Number of events People killed Economic Losses

On average, more than 36,000 people are killed and 178 million affected each year due to natural disasters in the region.

Source: EM-DAT; 1980-2015 (cumulative) Primary hazards may be geophysical or hydrometerological-may trigger secondary hazards Type of hazard Occurrence Primary Secondary Earthquake 2005 Kashmir earthquake in Pakistan and 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal Landslide dam and 2014 Nepal: Jure landslide that dammed subsequent the outburst Landslide dam and 2010 Pakistan: Hunnza Attabad landslide subsequent outburst flood Landslide dam and 2008 China: Landslide-dammed lake at subsequent Tangjiashan, Sichuan province outburst flood Flood Erosion& deposition 2008 Koshi in Nepal, India When disasters hit the HKH, they affect more women than men • During the 1991 cyclone in Bangladesh, the mortality rate for women was three times higher than for men (UNEP 1997; Twigg, 2009)

• During the 2015 Nepal earthquake, more women than men died in all the affected districts except Kathmandu (Golam et al., 2015)

• Records of natural disasters in the Himalayan region over the last few decades show that Koshi,Nepal Flood, 2008 women are at greater risk of dying than men (Mehta, 2007)

This is the result of women’s lack of information, mobility, decision-making power, and access to resources and training, as well as gender-based sociocultural norms and barriers, conventional gender responsibilities, and high rates of male outmigration. Increasing trend of disasters in the HKH is threatening sustainable development

120 140

Economic loss of US$597 billion 120 100

occurrence total damage 100 80

80

60 millions)

60 Economic loss (US$ (US$ inlossEconomic 40

Number of events reportedeventsNumberof 40

20 20

0 0

1996 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Source: EM-Dat Database • Climate change is magnifying risks and increasing disaster losses (UNISDR 2015): Need for regional cooperation Transboundary rivers – shared vulnerability across borders

Globally, 10% of all floods are transboundary, and they cause over 30% of all flood casualties and account for close to 60% of all those displaced by floods. Source: Bakker, 2006 One-third of the natural disasters are floods

Frequency People impacted

Source: Ilalem and Pal, 2014 Source: Nellemann et al., 20111 Koshi Some recent floods inHKH - Indus 2008 - Assam 2010 Baghlan - 2013 Uttarakhand 2014 - 2014 2017 Nepal, - -

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http://imgur.com/gallery/K3Rkh Key issues (related to flood)

• A diversity of technical, scientific, and institutional capacity exists in the region; • There is limited exchange of real-time data especially across national boundaries to increase lead time; • The integration of risk information into EWS is still weak; • Investment in EWS is low and of less priority; • There are opportunities for sharing knowledge, experiences and know-how. HKH-HYCOS: Setting up monitoring stations and establishment of real-time flood information systems

‘Making Information Travel Faster Than Flood Waters’

Establishment of a Regional Flood Information System in the HKH-Region - Timely exchange of flood data and information through an accessible and user friendly platform

HYCOS is a vehicle for technology transfer, training, and capacity building Regional flood outlook

• Setup of a real-time forecasting system for Ganga- Brahmaputra Basin • 21 nodes included for flood outlook in GB- basin with 3 days lead time UNFCCC’s Momentum for Change 2014 Lighthouse Activity Award Winning Initiative Community based flood early warning system

1.Implemented in river tributaries 2.Upstream/downstream linkage 3.Almost real time information 4.Provide guidance on how to act 5.Use of low cost ICT tools Immediate Impact on the ground Assam, India

“My fellow villagers like me because I am the source of all the information. I feel important now and panchayat also listens to me.” Mrs. Hoonmoni Doley, Caretaker, Dihiri

“I have a hatchery and harvest fingerlings for livelihood. That one hour of early flood warning makes all the difference to ensure that my investments are safe.” Osman Ali, Barsola 2

“After the instrument was installed we have peaceful sleep because of the early flood information, which gives us enough time to take action to save our assets even at night.” Local resident, Barsola 2

Saved assets, including livestock, worth approximately USD 3,000 Sept 2013, Dihiri Four elements of CBFEWS More than just a prediction…

1. 2. 3. 4. RISK COMMUNITY DISSEMINATION RESPONSE KNOWLEDGE BASED AND CAPABILITY AND AND SCOPING MONITORING COMMUNICATION RESILIENCE AND EARLY Systematically WARNING Communicate Enhance collect data and flood information community undertake risk Install early by upstream and response assessments and warning provide early capabilities and scoping instrument and warnings to build resilience flood monitoring downstream by upstream communities communities

Source: Based on UNISDR, 2006, http://www.unisdr.org/2006/ppew/whats-ew/basics-ew.htm (1) Wireless community based flood early warning system

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Nepal Function

Transmitter Unit

Receiver Unit (2) Community based flood early warning system with telemetry

Transmitter Unit

Alarm

Receiver Unit Conceptual diagram

10/31/2017 20 12 August 2017, Ratu River An example of local level cross border cooperation between Nepal and India

Before flood After flood in Bardibas

Nepal

Flood situation in Bhittamore, Bihar

Livestock shifted to safer places

India

School building serving as shelter A vision for mountain DRR to complement Sustainable Development Goals 2030

To complement the relevant formal SDGs, we propose the following vision for mountain DRR:

• By 2030, build resilience and reduce deaths from natural disasters in mountain regions substantially through informed decision making and enhanced preparedness.

Source: http://www.futurewater.nl Four targets to support the mountain DRR vision

1. Reduce economic loss, human deaths, and the number of people affected due to disasters and extreme climate events, especially for women and children [SDG 5, 13].

2. Make human settlements and habitats safe, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable through laws, education, capacity building, better zoning and building regulations, and a multi-hazard risk reduction approach [SDG 9, 11, 13].

3. Assure protection from exposure to extreme events such as floods and droughts [SDG 1, 13].

4. Provide access to DRR and mitigation measures, including finance and technology, with the knowledge and capacity building needed to use them [SDG 13].

Source: https://watchers.news Thank you