University Strategic Planning and the Foresight/Futures Approach An Irish Case Study

To come. by Ronaldo Munck and Gordon McConnell

Uncertainties and Complexity

There are many forces shaping university futures today. We certainly cannot assume that the next five-year strate- gic period will be in any way similar to the last. Business as Ronaldo Munck is theme leader for usual is simply not an option despite whatever conservative internationalization, interculturalism, and institutional impulses might wish to pull us in that direction. social development at Dublin City University Managing higher education in an atmosphere of austerity and visiting professor of sociology at the will be the challenge for some time to come. As Shattock University of Liverpool. He has worked at (2008) argues, in this scenario it is those institutions that universities in Ireland, the United Kingdom, South Africa, and South America. He has are able to preserve institutional cohesion and to hold on to written widely on globalization and its institutional values that will come out of the recession in discontents, most recently in Globalization better shape. We are now clearly moving into a post-public and Security, An Encyclopedia (Praeger era of higher education funding. With operating uncertainties Security International, forthcoming). increasing both structurally and specifically, there may well be a greater differentiation of mission among universities. Gordon McConnell is head of strategy and All these uncertainties create the need for clear strategic administration for Dublin City University. planning, vision, and foresight. As Abeles (2006, p. 31) He is a graduate of Dundalk Institute of Technology (Diploma in Business Studies) comments, “academic institutions need to revisit Shelley’s and National University of Ireland, Galway Ozymandias,” the central theme of which is the inevitable (B.Comm, MBS) and has an executive decline of the empires people build, however mighty they certificate from Massachusetts Institute of seem. Regardless of their status as medallion or lower tier Technology’s Sloan School of Management. institutions, their future is not assured in any form, much He has worked in industry, consulting, and less as visions of time past. The future is uncertain and we venture capital. need, as far as possible, to “future proof” our strategies.

Copyright © Society for College and University Planning (SCUP). All rights reserved. | Planning for Higher Education 31 Ronaldo Munck and Gordon McConnell

One broad global overview suggests four drivers shaping modern university is in fact more like a “multiversity” with the future of the university: globalism, multiculturalism, the no single animating principle, but rather with a multiplicity Internet, and politicization (Inayatullah and Gidley 2000). of missions that respond to its multiple stakeholders. Globalism (or globalization) and politicization could be Within this decade, Clark’s case study-based work on what regarded as long-term trends. Knowledge is now global he calls “entrepreneurial universities” has created a new and the university market is likewise. As a result, globalism and widely cited conceptual model (Clark 2004a, 2004b). has become a structural imperative, related to such issues Despite all the debates on what the mission/purpose/ethos as the “commodification” of education and the student of the contemporary university is or should be, there is as “consumer.” Politicization can, of course, take many agreement that today’s universities are complex organizations. different forms, but in general refers to the definitive Universities, as part of their routine day-to-day work, decline of the notion that knowledge and education are inherently create uncertainties both in terms of knowledge neutral, commonly-accepted public goods. This may lead to generation and knowledge transmission and are perhaps difficulties as does, of course, the rise of multiculturalism, uniquely qualified to deal with uncertainty precisely for that itself a more recent effect of globalization. Reality is socially reason. By acquiring or developing the type of conceptual constructed in ways that are both gendered and racialized. flexibility required to deal with uncertainty, universities will The rise of multiculturalism means that the ideal university be better able to respond creatively to external demands. may eventually take different forms as various minorities However, developing the ability to handle uncertainty—an seek to influence the inherited Enlightenment notion of the acceptance of complexity or even chaos—should not detract university as a place for the disinterested pursuit of truth. from a university’s fundamental, universal mission: the And finally the Internet, a dramatic revolution in the making discovery of knowledge and its transmission to new generations. of connections, will continue to decisively affect the purpose Finally, we must note that science and modernity of the university and the way it conducts research, teaching, have advanced hand-in-hand with the development of and publishing. The “virtualization” of the university has the nation-state. But in the last quarter of a century, our barely begun, and futures-oriented thinking is clearly required understanding of all these terms has been transformed. to understand the effects and fully grasp the opportunities. The very notion of a national university has become problematic in the era of globalization. The concept of a What is perhaps most certain as a stable, progressive, and smooth modernization process has also been undermined. No one now talks about the “end of major determinant of university history.” The certainties of 1989, when we saw the collapse futures is uncertainty. of the Berlin Wall, seem very far away. The period of “easy globalization” in the 1990s is well and truly over. The world Today, what is perhaps most certain as a major is more complex, conflicted, and unpredictable than it was. determinant of university futures is, in fact, uncertainty. To Uncertainties are not being eradicated; rather, they are cope with uncertainty, universities will need to become proliferating, raising acute issues of social justice, economic increasingly more flexible. In their influential treatise equality, and the democratization of knowledge. How will Re-Thinking Science: Knowledge and the Public in an Age the universities of both the affluent Western world and the of Uncertainty, Nowotny, Scott, and Gibbons (2001) argue developing world handle these pressures? The university of cogently that “universities may be unable to react rapidly the 21st century will need to be politically adept, adaptable, and creatively to future demands if they are constrained and not afraid to speak its mind. In an age of uncertainty within either a historically determined or bureaucratically the university may yet (re)gain a voice for creative political imposed division of institutional labour” (p. 255). solutions. Robertson (1992) states that “what we currently Despite the inherently conservative nature of the call globalization has been a very long, uneven and university, it has, at times, reflected upon its current and complicated process” (p. 10), and that while the overall future role. Since Newman’s (1873) iconic The Idea of a globalization process contains a certain “logic” and University, there have been intense debates regarding the inevitable direction, “the form of globalization which was university’s teaching and research roles. More recently, set firmly in motion during the period 1870–1925” (p. 60) Kerr’s (1963) The Uses of the University argues that the will not survive the 21st century.

32 October–December 2009 | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html University Strategic Planning and the Foresight/Futures Approach: An Irish Case Study

The notions of uncertainty and complexity are the perception by scanning the future, detecting problems key parameters under which the university planner works. before they occur, and assessing the implications for Barnett (2000) goes further, claiming that the contemporary current strategy of possible future events/tendencies. university exists in an era of “supercomplexity.” He argues It seeks to shape strategy through a coherent futures that the ideals of the university are dead and that the perspective using both frontier-exploring science and a historical justifications for the university are no longer certain degree of intuition. strong enough. In Barnett’s opinion, the university needs to Scenario planning lies at the core of the foresight reconceptualize itself around the notion of supercomplexity, approach. Scenarios are neither predictions of the future which stresses the way that flexibility, adaptability, and nor some form of disguised science fiction. They are, in self-reliance have become the practical and discursive fact, regularly deployed by military and business strategists watchwords in the world of work. But, as one reviewer of and government planners as powerful tools for decision Barnett’s work notes, our conclusion depends on whether making in the face of uncertainty. Scenarios help us order we see the university as existing in a period of late our perceptions about alternative future environments. They modernity or, instead, a period of “post-modernity,” which are designed to present an internally consistent “story” would point us toward supercomplexity as something fresh about the path from the present to alternative futures. (Knight 2001). Such a period of post-modernity may create Scenarios need to be plausible more than probable. They an operating environment in which universities will find are heuristic devices that allow us to explore critical future new and more complex roles to fulfil in relation to society, uncertainties as a way to prepare for unexpected turning the economy, and polity. Universities have reinvented points. The purpose of scenario planning is not to pinpoint themselves throughout the modern era, and we can events that might occur in the future, but rather to highlight expect them to do so again in the post-modern globalized large-scale forces that may push the future in different information era in which we now live. directions. For example, universities might be subject to one future in which globalization, e-learning, and the commodification of knowledge proceed unchecked, or To deal with a necessarily uncertain they might find themselves in a future that is more future, it makes sense to try to national, local, or community-based. understand that future better. Scenarios allow us to identify the driving forces of change affecting the university (or any other organization). Thinking at this stage must be free-floating and Foresight/Futures unconstrained, as far as possible, by organizational needs. The creative exploration of the future is one of the most To deal with a necessarily complex and uncertain future, it rewarding aspects of the foresight process. For leading makes sense for us to try to understand that future better researchers,it often represents a unique opportunity to so as to achieve some degree of foresight. To be clear, engage with others from disparate fields in free discussion, foresight thinking is not about forecasting or predicting. precisely because there are no “right answers” in the Rather, it is a futures-oriented methodology designed to foresight process. Of course, this imaginative thinking identify opportunities and constraints in strategic planning must eventually lead to strategic thinking and strategic development. Foresight emerged as a futures methodology planning, at which time the organizational imperative in a number of fields following World War II. In the United becomes paramount as we seek to future proof our States, it was deployed by the RAND Corporation in pursuit strategy in the light of the scenarios we have identified. of military strategic planning. In Europe, France led the way However, foresight is not then finished, to be revisited in with foresight as the main methodology used by DATAR, five years during the next strategic planning period. Rather, the national institute for regional development. By the we must continually scan the environment or horizon to 1970s, foresight was regularly deployed in the private keep our mental map of possible futures up-to-date. We sector (by Shell most notably) and used for a range of might then be able to spot the opportunities—as well as public sector policy analysis and technology assessment the icebergs—in the waters ahead. exercises. Essentially, foresight seeks to broaden our

Planning for Higher Education | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html 33 Ronaldo Munck and Gordon McConnell

Mapping the future is largely an empirical and requires hard, analytical, and systematic thinking, but it interpretive act, but it can also be a critical one. As also puts a premium on reflexivity, good judgment, and the Inayatullah (1999) states, “in critical futures research there type of intuitive approach more often associated with the is no final forecast or ultimate meaning, the challenge is humanities. The ability to grasp the big picture, think to continuously investigate our assumptions of what we outside the box, and find uncertainty natural is something believe the future will or should be like” (p. 4). A critical academics should take to as a matter of course. Visioning, approach might be particularly appropriate in a university imagineering, and future thinking are essential not only for context, bearing in mind the university’s traditional function the university, but also for the university to (re)discover a of interrogating knowledge and power. There are always role in today’s globalized knowledge society. other ways of knowing and, in an increasingly intercultural In the United States, there has been increasing context, different cultural frames to be borne in mind. We interest in the use of foresight as a strategic planning tool. also need to question taken-for-granted assumptions, such Morrison (2004) describes the development of a foresight as the function of universities. If foresight can help us capability at Indiana University designed to systematically “think the unthinkable,” then it will have performed a useful factor the external environment into the strategic planning function. A critical foresight approach can help us break process, identify potential events that could affect the with stale dogma and habitual thinking. It might also help university, and recommend action vis-à-vis these potential us imagine a more desirable future for which we can strive. events. There has also been foresight work done in relation to the universities in Arizona (Caldwell 1988). In Europe, Universities and Foresight there has been strong interest in foresight at the European Union level and, in Britain in particular (see Grocock 2002), For universities to engage in foresight is logical, given their the approach has become quite mainstream. One prioritized role as agents of knowledge production. In fact Europe-wide foresight exercise came up with three broad it could be argued that a university is/should be an scenarios that give a good flavor of how the approach “institution of foresight” (see Slaughter 2002). Fifty years works in practice: ago we could probably carry out our university strategic • Centralia (the City of the Sun): universities merged planning with some degree of security as to what the next national institutions; blended-mode learning combines five years would bring. The fundamental parameters of the campus with network; research clearly separated world, of society, and of science were unlikely to change at between private and public goods. the rapid rate now experienced in the 21st century. Today • Octavia (the Spider-Web City): universities capitalize on no such degree of certainty is possible. We need only the network and thick information; some have merged reflect on the banking crisis of September–October 2008 with private research and development facilities; and its repercussions across the globe to see how rapidly funding from international industry research consortia. unforeseen events can unfold and, given the much greater • Vitus Vinifera (the City of Traders and Microclimates): interlinkages between countries, how rapidly and cata- higher education becomes more flexible; a broader strophically they can spread. The university of the future range of learners; innovation highly valued and will, of necessity, be futures-oriented. Foresight is set to research is more applied (Georghiou and Harper 2006). be the epistemological platform for much of the strategic Such scenarios allow education providers to plan planning at universities from now on. strategically, bearing in mind potential futures. Of course, In a knowledge society and in a knowledge-generating they are not likely to emerge fully as described, but we can institution such as a university, it is only natural to engage use them as ideal types that operate as poles of attraction in a knowledge-based activity like foresight. As Slaughter in various ways. (2002) states, foresight “will become ubiquitously necessary In Australia, there has also been considerable interest as organisations at all levels struggle to ‘find their feet’ in foresight, and one case study of “the rise and fall of amidst the turbulence and create viable strategies for foresight” at an Australian university between 1999 and moving forward” (p. 9). Universities should be good at 2006 provides some interesting general lessons (University foresight because of their emphasis on creativity and Futures 2006). The objective was simply to afford staff the critical thinking. Environmental scanning, for example, opportunity to be involved in the process of thinking

34 October–December 2009 | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html University Strategic Planning and the Foresight/Futures Approach: An Irish Case Study

through options for the university’s future. A “foresight process, “component strategies” for research, learning network” was established with staff champions to innovation, community engagement, and internal promote the process. A “foresight bulletin” was created to communications were developed that underpinned the communicate the information uncovered during a fast-track, “corporate”-level plan. Additional planning efforts included intensive, and focused environmental scanning process. the development of both faculty plans (underpinned by Scenarios were developed and, while a degree of skepticism individual school plans) and administrative plans. remained, there appeared to be buy-in both from below The strategic intent (mission statement) of DCU and above and a sense of goodwill toward this experimental articulated in Leadership through Foresight proclaimed that approach to strategic planning. However, in the end a new the university is “a distinctive agent of radical innovation, university chief executive officer ended the experiment. So, within a culture of world class excellence in higher we should consider the enduring importance of established education and scholarship” (Dublin City University 2005, structures and organizational politics when introducing and p. 3). One of the plan’s more radical ideas was the developing something new. We should also recognize that to development of a foresight exercise. This idea was driven implement radical change, we must win over key personnel. in part by the research component strategy, which aimed to both identify areas of future potential research strength Dublin City University Foresight and future proof the organization. The other driver was the strategic planning function itself, which saw foresight as a Dublin City University (DCU) was founded in 1980 as a method for creating a long-range plan or roadmap from National Institute for Higher Education and was awarded which to develop future plans. As the DCU foresight Web university status in 1989 by the Irish government though site states, “Foresight is intellectually stimulating as well the Universities Act, 1997. DCU is one of Ireland’s youngest as action oriented. It is not an end in itself, but a means to universities. With over 10,000 students, including 600 a more successful future” (Dublin City University 2008a, postgraduate research students, DCU has become a leading unpaginated Web source). agent of change, constantly introducing new programs of Because scenario planning within a foresight exercise education to reflect the needs of a fast-evolving Irish society was totally new to the institution, DCU decided to ask for and seeking to provide world-class research and innovation. guidance. In Ireland, a national foresight exercise had been Since its inception, DCU has been designed to be developed and conducted in the 1990s by ForFás, the different. For example, DCU was one of the first universities national policy and advisory board for enterprise, trade, in Ireland to take an outward-looking approach by actively science, technology, and innovation. (ForFás operates encouraging relationships with industry and commerce. under the auspices of the Department of Enterprise, Trade DCU was also one of the first Irish universities to implement and Employment.) In March 1998, the Irish minister for strategic planning in earnest. Under the Universities Act, science, technology and commerce had asked ForFás to 1997, a university is obliged to have a strategic plan. The develop and conduct a technology foresight exercise based plan is the responsibility of the university president, who is on the recommendation of a government white paper the senior ranking officer of the university and is appointed (Government of Ireland 1996). In 2007, at the same time by and reports to the university’s governing authority. DCU was searching for guidance, ForFás was set to In early 2005, DCU began drafting a new strategic conduct a new foresight exercise. As a result, DCU was plan. The plan and its process differed widely from the able to tap into the experience of the consultant that previous strategic plan, Leading Change, which was ForFás used, futurist Sheila Moorcroft from Research published in 2001 (Dublin City University 2001). Leading for Tomorrow, Today in the United Kingdom. Change was primarily visionary in nature and arguably The DCU foresight project thus established links suffered from a lack of specifics around both objectives within and outside the university, which fostered novel and implementation. The new plan, Leadership through multi- and transdisciplinary thinking within the foresight Foresight (Dublin City University 2005), was created under group. Group members were carefully chosen for their the auspices of a new head of strategic planning using a independent thinking ability rather than for their formal more integrated planning model that emphasized the status. The foresight group led a wide process of consultation development of objective-based strategy. As part of this across the university and with its main stakeholders that

Planning for Higher Education | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html 35 Ronaldo Munck and Gordon McConnell

identified DCU’s perceived strengths, including a “can-do” supplies, urban planning, technology, the role of science, attitude, strong industry links, and a reputation for innovation. work-life balance, and patterns of mobility. The group also The phrase that emerged from this consultative process identified key actors it would need to influence to help the was “DCU should apply knowledge to meet human needs university deal with these uncertainties creatively and and be more in control of its own destiny” (Dublin City proactively, including government, business, the media, University 2008b, p. 16). With these agreed watchwords funding agencies, and staff and students. in mind, the foresight group embarked on a series of This work allowed the foresight group to create focus-intensive foresight workshops that began with the framework scenarios based on those areas of change the construction of scenarios for the future. group felt would be decisive in shaping radically different To make the most of the scenario process, the foresight views of the future. The framework scenarios were built on group gathered a wide range of inputs and insights to avoid a simple two-by-two grid (figure 1). [cr] On the horizontal the danger of tunnel vision and to recognize the real potential axis along a continuum between economy and society, one for change. The group sought to define the key critical end represents a global, mobile, and open economy and uncertainties shaping the university’s future. These were the other a society that is far less open and mobile. The defined primarily around globalization, including whether vertical axis presents the political/cultural domain, with one the world would evolve in a more integrated way or return end dominated by the government, community, and citizen to a more closed neo-protectionist order (this debate took and the other by the market, individual, and consumer. place before the onset of the global recession in late 2008), These two scenarios, which became known as “community as well as around the possible evolution of higher education resurgent” and “market ascendant,” acted as poles of funding. Uncertainties in these areas would impact energy attraction and set the parameters of subsequent discussions.

Figure 1 Framework Scenarios

Government / Community / Citizen

Community Resurgent (Scenario B) A localist, less mobile world, with strong emphasis on carbon reduction and resource use. More inward looking, re-focusing on local cultures & communities; consensus & social contribution. New approaches to establishing priorities for local/national social needs.

Global / Mobile Economy Society Less mobile Open Less open

Market Ascendant (Scenario A)

An open, mobile world driven by personal Culture Politics performance, efficiency, MY needs and money. The market provides and entrepreneurialism rules. Personal profiles define service and price, while visibility and celebrity ethos creates “star“ performers.

Market / Individual / Consumer

36 October–December 2009 | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html University Strategic Planning and the Foresight/Futures Approach: An Irish Case Study

Within these two scenarios, the university had a wide • Managing your health to explore new proactive and range of opportunities (the foresight group discerned 38 preventive approaches and technologies to manage viable possibilities or opportunities). These were distilled health and well-being that increasingly are based on into six core areas of opportunity, as shown in figure 2. [cr] and reflect personal profiles, lifestyle, and nutrition. The four areas inside the ovals were identified as DCU’s • Always-on networks and communications to examine main research themes. the impact and implications of embedded intelligence It is in the in-between or overlapping spaces where for social interaction, teaching and learning, and the four main research themes intersect where we might service delivery. expect to see the most innovative research opportunities. • Sustainable resource use for a carbon-neutral world to Thus at DCU there is already work being done where meet the growing need for more effective resource health care technologies and information and communication use, new forms of resources, new manufacturing technologies overlap. In the future, we can see the possibility technologies, and energy security. for approaching a food or environmental crisis from a joint • Development and security in a complex world to engineering-sustainable resources-social science-development understand cultural differences and develop conflict and security perspective. The foresight process discerned resolution strategies in an increasingly fragmented six major opportunities: but connected world and to promote human security • Educational innovation and applied learning to examine and good governance. new ways to create flexible and innovative learning • Futures and foresight to provide ongoing strategic and delivery mechanisms to underpin, support, and direction through horizon scanning and a framework feed into work in all university faculties and areas and for DCU to remain innovative and competitive, as to develop both genuine lifelong learning opportunities well as to develop new opportunities and links with and a “university on a human scale.” industry in key areas of strategic innovation.

Figure 2 Areas of Opportunity 6. Futures and Foresight - providing direction Applying knowledge to meet human needs… and strategy

1. Educational innovation & applied learning

3. Always-on 2. Managing networks and your health communications

5. Development 4. Sustainable and security in resource use for a complex world a carbon neutral world

…Being more in control of our own destiny

Planning for Higher Education | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html 37 Ronaldo Munck and Gordon McConnell

From the outset it was understood that the foresight DCU began to make precisely such a move as part of its exercise was not an end in itself. It was assumed that preparation for the 2009–2011 strategic plan. In practice, the foresight outcomes from the 2006–2008 strategic this essentially means that strategic foresight seeks to planning process would in turn provide a central intellectual integrate knowledge about the future into the planning underpinning for the 2009–2011 strategic planning process. process. It provides the long-term perspective; the In particular, foresight was designed to inform both the compass showing where the institution wants to go. learning innovation strategy and the research strategy by Strategic foresight operates as a futures think tank and identifying new emerging research opportunities. Furthermore, as a “thought leaders’ parliament” within the university. DCU foresight is intended to promote a long-term vision of The difficulty lies in incorporating this necessarily flexible the university and to provide a horizon-scanning function. approach with the rigors of strategic planning and strategic The integration of foresight into the strategic planning decision making. Certain fundamental decisions about process was not without its tensions. How would the where the university is going over the next five years new three-year plan relate to a vision extending to 2028 cannot be changed simply because a foresight group (and vice-versa)? Would the emerging areas of foresight came up with an interesting alternative. What is needed opportunity build on existing areas of strength? Finally, how is a mechanism for channeling ongoing foresight and would an intellectually-driven futures agenda relate to the horizon-scanning results into the strategic planning process financial and other material constraints that the strategic that is both flexible and robust enough to prevent uncertainty planning process would necessarily need to prioritize? from creeping into a process designed to overcome uncertainty. The model developed at DCU to accomplish Strategic Foresight this is shown in figure 3. [cr] In this strategic model, while the foresight group is the If we are to consciously use foresight as part of the strategic key driver of the strategic foresight process, it must also be planning process, then we might call it strategic foresight. integrated into a “joined-up” loop. Thus, the group drives

Figure 3 Channeling Foresight Results into the Strategy Process

Strategic

Foresight Group

Quality Horizon Assurance Strategic Scanning Process

Operational

38 October–December 2009 | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html University Strategic Planning and the Foresight/Futures Approach: An Irish Case Study

an ongoing process of environmental or horizon scanning innovation, but also fosters talent in a context of tolerance. that alerts the university community to risks and opportunities Foresight provides the naturally open and creative tools in the period ahead. It also feeds into the more traditional, needed to imagine how science can be made to serve perhaps institutional, process of strategic planning, which social need and promote positive change. itself needs, of course, operational implementation. This latter element is reviewed by a quality assurance process that also feeds into the ongoing deliberations of the The contemporary university cannot foresight group. Thus, strategic foresight can be seen as just “wait and see” what the future a continuous feedback loop in which the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. will bring. There are, it must be said, many potential pitfalls standing in the way of successful strategic foresight There are strong arguments in favor of strategic implementation. For a start, this is an approach which, to foresight, especially in times of economic and political some extent, cuts across the more traditional ways in uncertainty. Environmental scanning through critical which most academic units are built. Schools, departments, foresight methodologies comes into its own in such and faculties demand a certain degree of stability, predictability, periods. We need to consider carefully the verdict of and institutionalization. To those operating within this Slaughter (2002), for whom futures studies represent a traditional model, the strategic foresight approach “paradigmatic turning point in the production and use of understandably can be seen as unsettling and disruptive knowledge” and are a “sine qua non of a livable future” of established patterns of work. Further, from a grassroots (p. 2). We need to grasp the big picture and to develop the perspective, strategy making is itself often seen as a tools, insights, and institutional software that allow us to distraction from the “bread-and-butter” business of teaching. develop robust strategies able to cope with uncertainty. In “What has strategy ever done for us?” is a common refrain many ways, universities are uniquely suited to embrace of the teaching staff. Finally, strategic foresight is totally strategic foresight because their scientists already inhabit dependent on the support of senior management and, in the critical sphere where paradigmatic breakthroughs can particular, the president-equivalent of the university. occur. The contemporary university can neither engage in Without clear and categorical support and endorsement “business as usual” if it wishes to succeed nor can it just from above, it is probably impossible to implement strategic “wait and see” what the future will bring. Rather, we need foresight in a sustainable manner. As a result, foresight as to grasp the potential of strategic foresight as a critical a planning tool is vulnerable to changes in the upper planning tool that might at least to some extent construct echelons of university management. the future we consider desirable for our universities. Despite the risks involved in developing a relatively new strategic planning tool such as foresight/futures thinking, we argue that the cost of not adopting such tools References is even greater. Any form of conservatism courts the danger Abeles, T. P. 2006. Do We Know the Future of the University? of creating stasis, which, in our rapidly moving globalized On the Horizon 14 (2): 35–42. world, inevitably spells decline. The opposite of organizational Barnett, R. 2000. University Knowledge in an Age of Supercomplexity. conservatism, we would argue, is not a process of continuous Higher Education 40 (4): 409–22. change. That would lead inevitably to chaos. Rather, we Caldwell, R. L. 1988. Foresight: Definition and Need for Arizona need to foster innovation through a much greater emphasis Universities. Phoenix: Arizona Board of Regents. on creativity than in the past. The university must become Clark, B. 2004a. Delineating the Character of the Entrepreneurial a creative community in the way in which it operates, University. Higher Education Policy 17 (4): 355–70. ———. 2004b. Sustaining Change in Universities: Continuities thinks, and educates. Florida (2007) quite rightly argues in Case Studies and Concepts. Berkshire, UK: Open that “universities are the hubs of the Creative Economy. University Press. [A] strong university system is the source of much of our Dublin City University. 2001. Leading Change. Dublin: Dublin City best scientific, social, and creative leadership” (p. 8). The University. Retrieved July 19, 2009, from the World Wide Web: creative university is not only at the forefront of scientific www.dcu.ie/president/plan.shtml.

Planning for Higher Education | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html 39 Ronaldo Munck and Gordon McConnell

———. 2005. Leadership through Foresight. Dublin: Dublin City Kerr, C. 1963. The Uses of the University. Cambridge, MA: University. Retrieved July 19, 2009, from the World Wide Web: Harvard University Press. www.dcu.ie/news/2005/dec/strategicplan.pdf. Knight, P. T. 2001. Complexity and Curriculum: A Process ———. 2008a. DCU Foresight for 2028. Retrieved July 19, 2009, Approach to Curriculum-Making. Teaching in Higher from the World Wide Web: www.dcu.ie/themes/foresight/index.shtml. Education 6 (3): 369–81. ———. 2008b. Managing Our Destiny in Uncertain Times: DCU Morrison, J. 2004. Developing Foresight Capability in Strategic Foresight Report 2008. Dublin: Dublin City University. Planning. Description of workshop held at Indiana University. Retrieved July 19, 2009, from the World Wide Web: Retrieved July 19, 2009, from the World Wide Web: www.dcu.ie/themes/foresight/dcu_foresight.pdf. horizon.unc.edu/projects/seminars/indiana.html. Florida, R. 2007. The Creative Compact: An Economic and Social Newman, J. H. 1873. The Idea of a University: Defined and Agenda for the Creative Age. Toronto: The Martin Prosperity Illustrated. London: Basil Pickering Montagu. Institute, Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, Nowotny, H., P. Scott, and M. Gibbons. 2001 Re-Thinking Science: University of Toronto. Knowledge and the Public in an Age of Uncertainty. Georghiou, L., and J. C. Harper. 2006. The Higher Education Cambridge, UK: Polity Press. Sector and its Role in Research: Status and Impact of Robertson, R. 1992. Globalization: Social Theory and Global Future-Oriented Technology Analysis. Paper presented at the Culture. London: Sage. Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Shattock, M. 2008. Managing Mass Higher Education in a Period Technology Analysis, September 28–29. Retrieved July 19, of Austerity. Keynote speech given at the 6th Annual CELT 2009, from the World Wide Web: forera.jrc.ec.europa.eu Symposium on Teaching and Learning, June 5. Retrieved July /documents/papers/anchor/HigherEdAnchorPaper.pdf. 19, 2009, from the World Wide Web: www.nuigalway.ie Government of Ireland. 1996. Government White Paper on /celt/webcasts/MichaelShattock/MShattock.html. Science, Technology and Innovation. Dublin: Government Slaughter, R. A. 2002. Universities as Institutions of Foresight. of Ireland Department of Enterprise and Employment. Retrieved July 19, 2009, from the World Wide Web: Grocock, A. 2002. Universities in the Future. Journal of the Royal foresightinternational.com.au/resources/Universities_as_IOFs.pdf. Society for Medicine 95 (1): 48–49. University Futures. 2006. The Rise and Fall of Foresight: A Case Inayatullah, S. 1999. Critical Futures Research. Brisbane: The Study in Implementing Foresight at an Australian University. Communication Centre, Queensland University of Technology. Retrieved July 19, 2009, from the World Wide Web: Retrieved July 19, 2009, from the World Wide Web: k.b5z.net/i/u/6109363/f/The_Rise_and_Fall_of_Foresight.ppt. www.metafuture.org/Critical%20futures%20research.pdf. Inayatullah, S., and J. Gidley. 2000. Introduction: Forces Facing University Futures. In The University in Transformation: Global Perspectives on the Futures of the University, eds. S. Inayatullah and J. Gidley, 1–16. Westport, CT: Bergin & Garvey.

40 October–December 2009 | Search and read online at: www.scup.org/phe.html